Syria’s ongoing destruction has impacted the Lebanese economy in various ways, but its eventual reconstruction could bring rich opportunities to its smaller neighbor.
The first two years of the Syrian conflict have seen a massive influx of refugees who have added to the large, existing Syrian workforce. According to Lebanese government estimates, more than 1 million Syrians resided in the country at the beginning of 2013 (both refugees and non-refugees) — the equivalent of a staggering 25 percent of the Lebanese population — while estimates from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees have documented 486,000 refugees as of May 22, both registered and waiting to be registered.
This flow has had, and will continue to have, a significant impact on the weak Lebanese state and its physical infrastructure. The number of Syrian children that will require schooling in Lebanese state institutions in September 2013 is expected to rise significantly, with some analysts forecasting their enrollment to be on par with the current number of Lebanese pupils. The water and electricity networks will not be spared, particularly during the summer, while traffic congestion is already on the increase.
Negative effects have also been felt by Lebanese businesses. The conflict in Syria has frightened off tourists and dipped confidence in the economy. Demand from Lebanese households has declined and so has investment, according to Banque du Liban, Lebanon’s central bank. The conflict has also significantly increased the cost to insure and transport exports to Lebanon’s traditional trade partners, such as Iraq and the Gulf. Meanwhile, Lebanese investors in Syria, particularly those in the financial services industry, have taken major losses.
This is not, however, the full picture. In the summer of 2012, the expansion of violence to Syria’s two largest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, drove thousands of urban dwellers from the Syrian middle class and business community to Lebanon. This led to a surge in demand for rented housing across the country and to a rise in consumption. The presence of Syrian patrons at restaurants in Beirut’s Hamra district and beyond is ample proof of that. Investment is still lagging, though by the spring of 2013 an increasing number of Syrian investors were reportedly starting to establish offices or set up shop in and around Beirut.
More relevant to the longer term, however, is the effect of the war and of the Syrian economy’s disintegration on the often-complicated relations between Lebanon and Syria
Already, the decline in Syria’s economic output has improved Lebanon’s trade balance with its eastern neighbor. According to Lebanese customs, Lebanese exports stood at $296 million in the first four months of 2013 — more than the total of 2012, which reached $294 million. While this is partly due to transit trade of energy products to the sanctions-hit Syrian government, there is also evidence that this is the consequence of a massive decline in Syria’s output, especially in the farming sector, creating intense demand for essential goods and commodities from abroad. This represents a reversal of a historic trend; Syria’s more competitive agricultural products used to regularly flood Lebanese markets.
Even if the conflict were to end today, the Syrian economy would need years before it recovers. Replacing destroyed infrastructure and housing alone is expected to cost tens of billions of dollars. The UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia forecasts, for instance, that when reconstruction begins, demand for cement in Syria will be at some 30 million tons per annum, or three times the level of demand prior to the conflict — a rise in demand that will benefit the Lebanese building materials industry.
After a decade during which Lebanese financial sector capital and know-how benefited from Syria’s economic liberalization, it’s now likely that the country’s smaller industrial and agricultural sectors will find strong new opportunities in post-conflict Syria.
It is still too early to make a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the war on bilateral relations, but there is little doubt that Lebanese investors, across all business sectors, are going to be major beneficiaries of Syria’s reconstruction effort. This will be a strong incentive for solid ties between the two countries, but whether politicians have a grasp of the importance of nurturing these ties is, obviously, a different story.
Jihad Yazigi is editor-in-chief of The Syria Report