The mechanics that keep the boat afloat
written by Thomas Schellen

Thomas Schellen
Thomas Schellen is Executive's editor-at-large. He has been reporting on Middle Eastern business and economy for over 20 years. Send mail
2 comments
With five billion US dollars of interest on the public Debt in 2016 (and growing) how can the banking sector maintain its performance over the next fifteen years? But the real question to ask is: Will Lebanon be in a position to bear such a performance?
Flamboyant and retrospective, however, the author omits three issues that may critically precipitate a banking crisis in Lebanon. I am under no illusion that Lebanese banking has a magic lantern for profitability. The fact of the matter is that the profitability of the sector has been driven by the anomalously high returns on Lebanese sovereign risk. I believe up to 40% of the profitability of the sector is from carrying substantial amounts of Lebanese sovereign risk. Additionally, adverse sociopolitical developments in the Levant will have a depressing impact on the sector. The greater danger, however, is the turmoil in the gulf as a result of the Yemen war and the precipitous drop in the price of oil. This poses tough challenges tor the Lebanese economy and the performance of the banking sector. The critical mass of expat remittances that have sustained , to date, the economy and the performance of the banking sector is due for some precipitous drops that will disrupt this virtuous financial loop between banks and the high return provided on sovereign risk. .
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