Banking on change

As demonstrations succeeded one another in the aftermath of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s death, one contradiction became increasingly apparent: while the events were doing little good for the economy, the general feeling of euphoria prevailing seemed to overcome the prospect of an economic collapse, at least in the minds of those opposing the government. This paradoxical confidence, which should have been undermined by the death of the only man with a chance of taking Lebanon out of what many consider inevitable bankruptcy, has endured. And yet the indicators are hardly reassuring. The tourism industry and real estate sales, both of which bolstered the relative recovery in the economy after 2001, have been on unprofitable standby. According to finance ministry officials, the state is losing some $15 million a day in lost VAT revenues. Every week that politics delay the smooth run of policy is one lost to introducing vital