As 2009 draws to a close, two centers of business can publish two very different end of year reports. Lebanon, for so long the whipping boy of regional fortunes, is signing off on a year that should see it achieve 7 percent growth. Dubai on the other hand, until
recently the jewel in the regional crown, was hammered by global financial meltdown. As I write, the chief investment vehicle of Dubai’s government, Dubai World, has just told its creditors they will not be receiving the billions of dollars in payments they are owed in December, and asked them to put off this repayment until May 2010.
In Lebanon, the business community showed what it can do even when the government is absent — literally absent. For five months in 2009,
following the June 7 elections, the state sat in limbo as protracted negotiations over the formation of a new cabinet dragged on until November 9. Nonetheless, this hiatus did not stop the irresistible force that is the Lebanese private sector — in particular banking, tourism, real estate and retail — from surging ahead and leading a vibrant economic comeback. So robust was our showing that the Lebanese Central Bank has reported
increased demand on the Lebanese lira and is even considering reducing
interest rates accordingly.
Dubai was the poster boy for vision and good governance, the first Arab state to embrace the Western business values as it sought to create a diversified economy. Recognizing that the black gold was finite, the
emirate set about creating a playground for financial services and tourism. It invested in real estate projects that had the world gasping in awe. In hindsight it is easy to mock, and perhaps even to take pleasure in the
misfortune of those who for so long seemed to have the Midas touch. But Dubai, like all developed markets, will bounce back. The money will
return. Too much time, effort and investment has been plowed into it for it to simply sink into the Arabian Gulf. The Lebanese families, who made their homes, planned their futures, and had their children there, will surely still be there to contribute to the recovery.
And so as we enter a New Year, it is prudent to remember that while fortunes can fluctuate, the spirit of enterprise and commitment to success will always endure.
