In the first month of 2011 a storm of popular rage swept across the Arab world. Protests from Morocco to Yemen have brought millions out into the streets to demonstrate against the once-feared powers that be, toppling one long-time titan of autocracy in Tunisia and leaving another clinging to power in Egypt as January ends. One must remember that Tunisia and Egypt were the North African darlings of international investors looking for high returns in developing markets. Both had been regarded as stable macroeconomic environments right up until their collapse, with proven track records of strong growth and stellar potential. Who could have foreseen these revolts? Economists and the like have a nice term for an event of such radical departure from the expected: a ‘black swan’ – a freak of nature, unforeseeable, unavoidable and of devastating consequence. But were the events of the last month really so unexpected? We
