The Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) was given no chance to shake off the curse of disunity among the nation’s power players but it still propelled forward and upwards by market logic and investor demand toward the end of 2007. Following a flat-lining from Jan. until the end of August when the Blom Stock Index hit a year low of 1,159.95 points, the BSI moved up to 1480.34 points on Nov. 30, a gain of 18.59% since the start of the year, and leapt by another 6.25% to 1,572.83 on Dec. 3. Analysts attributed the improvements to optimism that a solution to the political crisis would be found. The optimism pushed the share price for real estate stock Solidere to highs last seen in early 2006. Demand for banking stocks, which was fed by talk of acquisition bids for Blom Bank and Audi Saradar Group in Sept. and Oct., also helped the index rise. The major stocks on the BSE by the start of December 2007 thus looked their best in a long while.   

Beirut SE: Blom  (1 year)

Current Year High: 1,526.31         Current Year Low: 1,168.36

The Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) remained within the subdued range forecasted for the first half of 2007. Although the ASE index reached above 6,000 points in Feb. and March, it fell back to the mid-5000s in late spring and remained glued there until the end of Sept. The fourth quarter, however, was stellar as the index rallied above 7,000 points in November. It closed at 6,984.09 on Nov. 29, 26.67% up from the start of the year. Banking, with the bourse’s heavyweight Arab Bank at the helm, paced the market throughout the year and the banking sub-index stood in synchronicity half a percentage point above the general index on Nov. 29. Industrial values were consistently higher than the benchmark and closed November up 40.66% when compared with January 1. The services and insurance sectors didn’t oscillate as the other sectors and ended, relatively, November 14.75% and 8.99% higher year to date.

Amman SE  (1 year)

Current Year High: 7,227.83         Current Year Low: 5,267.27

 The Abu Dhabi Securities Market (ADSM) achieved its 2007 gains in two phases, in April/May and between mid-Sept. and early Nov. The summer saw sideways trading with a gradual softening of the performance. The index reached its highest close on Nov. 6 with 4,439.83 points. It closed on Nov. 29, ahead of the UAE National Day weekend, at 4,163.01 points, representing a gain of 38.92% year-to-date. The real estate sector, which rallied beyond wildest expectations, was the unassailed daddy of index gains over the period, closing 145.06% higher than at the start of Jan. 2007. The consumer, construction, energy and telecommunications indices did better as well as the general index by the end of November. By the same date, banking trailed the ADSM index by almost 10%, the industrial sub-index by 21. Insurance was the biggest underperformer in 2007, moving in negative index territory most of the time.

Abu Dhabi SM  (1 year)

Current Year High: 4,439.83         Current Year Low: 2,839.16

The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) disappointed expectations in the first eight months of 2007 although its bold step of listing the exchange operator prepared the DFM for new moves. The index’s steep climb in Sept. and Oct. led to a year high of 5,726.27 points on November 6. The index closed at 5,354.57 points on Nov 29, up 29.81% from January 1. Banking stocks moved in close correlation to the benchmark index in Nov. while stocks in investment and finance companies excelled with a gain of 77.57% from January to the end of November, to which the DFM.Co stock provided a fair contribution. Indices for utilities and transportation companies also did better than the DFM benchmark. The big weight of real estate and its largest company, Emaar Properties, in total market cap, was reflected in a one-day downward aberration of the market on Aug. 22. The real estate sector on Nov. 29 closed 17.77% up but materials, insurance, and telecoms values reported neutral or negative figures from the start of the year.

Dubai FM  (1 year)

Current Year High: 5,726.27         Current Year Low: 3,658.13

The Kuwaiti Stock Exchange led other markets in the GCC as the early riser whose upward movement commenced in March and peaked above 13,000 points after the middle of Oct. On Nov. 29, the index closed 20.1% up from the start of 2007 at 12,052 points. Per sector, the food index exceeded the general index’s gains with a rise of 57.09% over the period. Banking and non-Kuwaiti firms followed with 38.7% and 30.37% whereas Investments and Industrial ended the period approximately 1 and 4 percentage points higher than the general index. Real estate and services trailed below the gains of the other sectors; insurance was the bourse’s underperformer with a rather flat line vacillating from June thru Nov. 4 to 5% above the sector’s showing in January 2007.

Kuwait SE  (1 year)

Current Year High: 13,175.20       Current Year Low: 9,372.60

The Saudi Stock Exchange index took its time to kiss the bear goodbye. A spurt in February was short lived and the Tadawul All Shares Index (TASI) languished until early October while other GCC markets were on the rise. When the TASI took off, it rallied to above 9,000 points in the space of a month and closed Nov. 18.76% higher for the year to date at 9,464.40 points. Sub-indices of the SSE that outperformed the general index were the insurance sector with a wave of new listings, followed by the industrial and agro-business sectors. Power, services, and telecommunications performed at the lower end of the scale. In an interesting sideways look, one chart that outdid the benchmark index growth rates of each GCC bourse was the OPEC reference basket. It shows price gains of 72.5% in the course of 2007 to a peak above $91 on Nov. 21 before retreating slightly at the end of the month. 

Saudi Arabia SE  (1 year)

Current Year High: 9,717.44         Current Year Low: 6,861.80

The crown of growth in 2007 index performance to the end of November goes to the Muscat Securities Market (MSM). The upward movement of the MSM was steady and strong, while investors enjoyed an addition of half the market’s value from January to end Nov. The year-high index reading for the period was 8442.75 points on Nov. 27, or 50.08% up versus the first trading session of 2007. Harmonious development seemed all the rage among the MSM sub-indices where the banking sector performed best, closing Nov 27 with a 7% lead over the general index. The industrial sector outperformed the benchmark by a bit more than 2%; the services sector was the laggard, ending 8.5% below the general index. Similar to its peers in the Gulf region, the Omani bourse was not visibly affected by the sub-prime and credit crises that troubled exchanges in developed markets in the latter part of 2007.

Muscat SM  (1 year)

Current Year High: 8,526.84         Current Year Low: 5,399.29

Petite but not to be scoffed at, the Bahrain Stock Exchange (BSE) recorded a flat performance in the first four months of 2007. The index reached its pinnacle on Nov. 1 with a close at 2,684.14 points. In the following month, it retreated 88 points, leaving its Nov. 29 close of 2,595.84 to reflect a gain of 16.49% vis-à-vis the start of the year. Relative to the gains of other GCC bourses in 2007, the BSE had the lowest increase in the first 11 months of 2007. Internally, the sub-index for investment stocks was the BSE’s best performer at double the gains of the general index. Banks, on the other hand, underperformed on the Bahraini bourse when compared with the general index while insurance stocks realized gains that were better than in most other GCC stock exchanges, except for Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The values in the industry, services, and hotels and tourism sub-indices all trailed the general index. 

Bahrain SE  (1 year)

Current Year High: 2,684.14         Current Year Low: 2,106.70

 The Doha Securities Market (DSM) showed a similar performance curve to the nearby Abu Dhabi exchange in 2007 but on a bit lower elevation. The index peaked on Nov. 4 above 10,000 points and closed at 9,363.1 points, 31.49% higher when compared with the start of 2007. Of the DSM’s four sector indices, the two financial charts performed lowest. However, the spread between the sub-indices was less pronounced than in neighboring markets. The insurance index closed the period 18.29% higher, banking ended 22.8% up. The services sector rose 26.14% from the start of the year. This left it to Qatari industrial values to outdistance the other sectors with a gain of 77.39%. Industries Qatar, which entered December 2007 with holding close to a quarter of the bourse’s total market cap, drove the industry sector higher; it gained 86% over 11 months.  

Doha SM: Qatar  (1 year)

Current Year High: 10,057.59       Current Year Low: 5,825.80

 The Tunindex of the Tunisian Stock Exchange could not sustain the growth momentum that had carried it through a steep rally in Dec. 2006 and the first six weeks in 2007. It topped out at 2,712.33 points on Feb. 9 and rolled along thereafter, giving up about 10% by end of Sept. A recovery phase in Oct. and Nov. allowed the index to close at 2606.29 points on Nov. 30, its highest reading in almost 10 months and 11.81% up on the year. Industrial stocks led market gains in early Sept. while the financial companies and financial services sectors advanced stronger than the benchmark Tunindex during Nov. The sub-index for consumer goods mostly trailed the other sectors in the second half of 2007.

Tunis SE  (1 year)

Current Year High: 2,712.33         Current Year Low: 2,316.10

The Moroccan bourse moved up in the first five months of 2007 and again from late July till early September when it celebrated its year high of 13,506.29 points on Sept 5. Thereafter, things moved down a notch and the Casablanca Stock Exchange traded sideways until its close at 12,683.43 points on the last day of November. The all shares index’s gain of 33.6% from the start of 2007 was ever more remarkable as the exchange did not share the correction phase experienced by most other MENA markets in 2006. On the trajectory from Jan. 2006 until Nov. 2007, the protected bourse’s index thus more than doubled its point values. Market heavyweight Maroc Telecom managed a 13% share price gain over 11 months in 2007.

Casablanca SE All Shares  (1 year)

Current Year High: 13,506.29       Current Year Low: 9,240.05

 Not withstanding temporary soft spots under the influence of global investor sentiment with a dip in August, the Cairo and Alexandria Stock Exchanges reached for a record year when approaching the end of 2007. The region’s exchange with the largest tally of listed companies closed at 85,645.80 points in the EFG Hermes index on Nov. 29, giving the index a gain of 41%. Real estate and construction values in the “construction, real estate and building materials” sub-index stood out as gainers besides the financials sub-index. The consumer sector stayed nearer to the benchmark while the telecoms index disappointed slightly ahead of a very active period for telcom stocks in Oct. and Nov. Analysts expect the Egyptian bourse to be affected to some degree if predictions of a slowing in global economy in 2008 are mirrored by reality.

Cairo SE: Hermes  (1 year)

Current Year High: 86,807.28       Current Year Low: 57,013.49