Iran showdown threatens Lebanon’s economy

ENAR

It is common knowledge that Lebanon is in an economic rut. The six-year war in neighboring Syria has negatively impacted the local economy, just as domestic politics, particularly the two and a half year presidential void, eroded confidence and piled on pressure. While government formation following May parliamentary elections has carried on through the summer, the expectation is that the next cabinet will at least partly endorse reforms promised at this year’s CEDRE conference in order to unlock donors’ pledges for infrastructure investment. Commitments made at CEDRE, held in Paris in April, may be necessary to keep the Lebanese economy afloat—if waves from regional disturbances do not sink these plans first. A July report from credit rating agency Moody’s forecast only “a modest rise” in Lebanon’s GDP growth, to 2.5 percent this year, up from 1.9 percent in 2017. But the accompanying press statement also suggested that geopolitical unrest could