Global economic data

CLIs signal deep slowdown in OECD area and major non-OECD member economiesn OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for November 2008 point to deep slowdowns in the major seven economies and in major non-OECD member economies, particularly China, India and Russia. The following outlines the extent of these slowdowns:

• The CLI for the OECD area decreased 1.3 points in November 2008 and was 7.3 points lower than in November 2007.
• The CLI for the United States fell 1.7 point in November, 8.7 points lower than a year ago.
• The Euro area’s CLI dropped 1.1 points in November, and was 7.6 points lower than a year ago.
• In November, the CLI for Japan decreased 1.6 points, and was 5.5 points lower than a year ago.
• The CLI for the United Kingdom fell 0.6 points in November 2008 and was 6.7 points lower than a year ago.
• The CLI for Canada fell 1.2 points in November and was 6.1 points lower than a year ago.
• For France, the CLI decreased 0.8 point in November and was 5.7 points lower than a year ago.
• The CLI for Germany fell  2.0 points in November and was 10.7 points lower than a year ago.
• For Italy, the CLI fell 0.2 point in November and stood 5.0 points lower than a year ago.
• The CLI for China decreased 3.1 points in November 2008 and was 12.9 points lower than a year ago.
• The CLI for India fell  1.2 point in November 2008 and was 7.6 points lower than in November 2007.
• The CLI for Russia decreased 4.3 points in November and was 13.8 points lower than a year ago.
• In November 2008 the CLI for Brazil dropped 1.1 point and was 2.9 points lower than a year ago.

Strong slowdown in the OECD area

Strong slowdown in the United States

Strong slowdown in the Euro area

Strong slowdown in China

Strong slowdown in the United Kingdom

Strong slowdown in Canada

Strong slowdown in France

Strong slowdown in Germany

Strong slowdown in Italy

Strong slowdown in Japan

Strong slowdown in India

Strong slowdown in Russia

Downturn in Brazil

• The above graphs show each country’s growth cycle outlook based on the CLI, which attempts to indicate turning points in economic activity approximately six months in advance. Shaded areas represent observed growth cycle downswings (measured from peak to trough) in the reference series (economic activity).