Morocco faced a disappointing setback to its recent positive GDP growth, plummeting from 9.3% during Q3 in 2006 to 1.7% in Q3 2007. The High Commissariat for Planning released a report in September noting this decelerating growth rate and stated that a production output drop of 20.9% in agriculture is largely responsible, a situation which arose from failed crop harvests and prolonged drought this summer.
A limited supply of exportable agricultural produce (agriculture accounts for 11% of total export value in Morocco) required the country to import commodities it is used to providing in surplus, such as wheat, flour and cereal.
Wheat yields for 2006/2007 dropped to 20 million quintals, down from 90 million quintals in the previous season. The national stock of wheat was only sufficient to provide flour for two months, forcing the government to import over 3 million quintals of wheat.
This indicator flags the country’s reliance on agricultural output, which provided $67.4 billion of GDP in 2006 (14.1% of total GDP). Agriculture remains important in the kingdom, currently employing 40% of the active labor force. With the majority of Moroccan crops highly rain-dependent, this sector often produces fluctuating yields. Key crops such as grapes, wheat and fruits, which are all grown in the north and rely on the area’s milder climate with higher precipitation levels, have suffered volume decreases of up to 80% (in the case of wheat) due to adverse weather conditions.
Development challenges
Rain in Morocco never falls at the same time of the year, and never falls in the same area. This irregularity poses a huge challenge for the agricultural sector, as only 11.5% of agricultural lands are properly irrigated.
key crops such as wheat and fruits have suffered volume
decreases up to 80%
Reliance on rainfall is therefore a development challenge for the Moroccan economy. Despite diversification efforts, agriculture remains one of the country’s key income providers. Agricultural land covers 8.7 million hectares, 20% of the country’s total area. Cereal crops cover the greatest area, accounting for 68% of land under production.
Moroccan agricultural production provides a core component of the country’s demand for primary food products. In 2006 domestic production provided 72% of domestic cereal demand, 25% of oil, 87% of milk and 100% of fruit and vegetables.
This year, the government was forced to not only to import but also to raise consumer prices to counteract import costs. The value of Morocco’s wheat imports for 2007 at the end of July exceeded 287 million euros ($407 million). This represented an increase of 66% compared with 2006 imports, and goes a significant way to explain the ensuing price hikes for basic foodstuffs.
The period of Ramadan saw the climax of social unrest surrounding price hikes, with sit-ins, protests and violent clashes between hungry rioters and security forces. This compelled the government to lower prices during the holy month, which knocked 7% off the price for vegetables but did not address the underlying issue of dependency.
The government has recently received donor aid money from the African Development Bank ($63 million) and the US Millennium Challenge Compact ($700 million), a slice of which has been earmarked for rural development. Current projects still prioritize rural infrastructure, linking remote communities with their nearest trading depot.
It seems, however, that the pressing problem is addressing water dependency in a country which cannot afford to rely on rainfall for crop success. The World Bank has recently indicated that with Morocco using 90% of its economically accessible water resources, figures for 2035 project that 35% of Moroccans could have access to less than 500 cubic meters per capita (current per capita water access is 700 cubic meters).
Much remains to be done as Morocco addresses its water dependency. Irrigation techniques, desalination methods and exploiting untapped reserves are key areas to be explored. Although Morocco has been keen in the past to increase the number of dams and other water storage mechanisms, inefficiency in distribution has reduced the effectiveness of such infrastructure works. However, should natural gas exploration plans prove successful, the question of how to pay for the energy needed to fire desalination plants could be solved.
