Levant

Campaign priorities – The Grand Serail’s to-do list

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Lebanon has an exasperating array of economic issues which will need to be tackled by the new government that will be formed after the June 7th general elections. Many leaders speak about economic plans and reform, but can their walk match the talk?

“Not one of the current candidates for the upcoming elections has a clear understandable economic vision for Lebanon,” says Oussama Safa, the general director for the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. “This shows that accountability and checks and balances have no part in the elections. The elections are a battle of slogans not programs.”

As part of this magazine’s election coverage, Executive has asked Lebanese business figures, academics, economists and civil society leaders to provide what they think the economic priorities for the next government should be.
Stability seems to be top priority.

“If there is political stability and security then there will be confidence. Confidence is the key aspect to economic growth,” says Nassib Ghobril, head of economic research for Byblos Bank.

Safa says that to achieve stability, Lebanese politicians must place their first priority on “forming a national unity government and staying away from controversial issues.”

However, March 8 and March 14 have already begun to disagree over the meaning of a national unity government. The March 8 coalition has made clear that, for them, a unity government means that the minority has veto power in the next government. March 8 has already offered March 14 a blocking minority if the opposition wins. But March 14 has made clear that they want direct competition in this election where the winner takes all. Prime Minister Fouad Saniora told Reuters that “a national unity government is not only favorable but it is important… But for us to depend on ‘veto power’ governments means that we will reach… a point where we cannot advance.”

Stability is one priority that does appear to be achievable, despite the current disagreement over the makeup of a unity government. Rapprochement between Syria and Saudi Arabia helps, and increases the prospect of a government with a minority wielding veto power. Antoine el-Khoury, general manager of BREI Real Estate, says “we should be smart enough to find common ground.”
Besides stability, Khoury and other interviewees say the new government should focus on reducing the role of the state, fighting corruption, increasing transparency and containing the economic crisis.

Reducing the role of the state

The cost of doing business in Lebanon is prohibitive for Lebanese businesses and foreign investors. Reducing the role of the state is seen as a key step toward creating a better environment for these business interests. This is seen as particularly urgent given the increased competitiveness of the region and the global financial crisis.

In their report ‘A New Path for Economic and Social Development in Lebanon’, Marc Daou and Jad Chaaban — president of the Lebanese Economic Association and an economics professor at the American University of Beirut (AUB) — articulate how Lebanon is in danger of being overrun by the rest of the region: “Human capital, Lebanon’s main competitive advantage, has deteriorated. Despite spending lots on education, the quality of learning is low compared to other countries, and outcomes are not up to expectations.” One of their recommendations is to “reduce the role of the state to the regulation and provision of public goods.”

Nassib Ghobril of Bank Byblos argues that the new government should go even further than this. Ghobril claims that 2007 was one of the worst years in Lebanon’s recent modern history but the economy still grew by four percent.
“What does this tell us? We only need a minimal government in Lebanon,” he says.

The level of bureaucracy that the state imposes on businesses in Lebanon can be incredibly taxing, says Safa. “It takes 42 days to set up a business in Lebanon which is probably the longest in the world.”

Another reason the private sector wants the state out of its business is because of the negative relationship between the two. Khoury says that when his company goes to the civil service they make him and his company “feel like thieves,” just because they are businessmen. He says that at the same time the government is not doing enough to promote responsible businesses. “We feel alone fighting against irresponsible businessmen draining the resources of the country,” remarks Khoury.

The bloated Lebanese bureaucracy is viewed as needing a complete overhaul, which would include shrinking and reorganizing the government. One interviewee who requested to remain anonymous says that certain parts of the administration are very corrupt. The procedures laid out by the various administrative departments are deliberately unclear and inconsistent; a citizen always needs to hire mediators. He also added that his company must pay bribes to various part of the government administration to get the public documentation.

Corruption and transparency
Lebanon is currently ranked 102nd of 180 countries on the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). Other indicators such as the Global Integrity Index, the World Bank Governance Indicators, as well as the Open Budget Index confirm Lebanon’s desperate situation when it comes to corruption and transparency.
The Lebanese Transparency Association (LTA), the Lebanese chapter of Transparency International, has been working hard to bring the government to account. Gaëlle Kibranian, program manager for the Democratization and Public Accountability program at LTA, says Lebanon’s situation is dismal.
“Lebanon remains [a] confessional [system], which shapes the relationship between citizens and state, as well as the lack of separation of powers,” Kibranian says. “This leads to nepotism, clientalism, and patronage.”
Kibranian argues that one of the first measures the government should be taking is to “implement the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC), which was ratified by Lebanon.”

Khoury confirms the need for more ethics, particularly in regards to the real estate sector, “which is not only important for us but also in attracting investors.”
But it’s not all bad news and there is some hope that politicians will take corruption seriously. The elections and the new election law are a case in point. Kibranian notes that the monitoring and controlling of this year’s campaign spending has made a difference.

“It has meant that politicians are taking the question of corruption very seriously, trying to abide by the law, in order to avoid future challenges,” claims Kibranian.
Apart from outright corruption through bribes, Safa gives another view of the problem in relation to overlapping interests. He says close relationship between the government and the Lebanese banking sector is too close for comfort.
“The bankers and financers are in bed with the government — the prime minister is a former banker and the Lebanese government owes billions to the Lebanese banking system,” Safa says. “The result of this is that different economic sectors are ignored.”

The power of the banks was recently illustrated in their rejection of a proposed interest rate increase and a social security proposal that was stopped by the Bank Association. According to Nassib Ghobril, 54 percent of the public debt is owed to Lebanese banks, illustrating what a stranglehold the banks have on the Lebanese government.

But the banks have recently been held up as Lebanon’s savior, and rightly so, in the face of the global economic crisis. The firm foundations of the Lebanese banking system, demanded by the Lebanese Central Bank, have saved the economy, thus far, from significant harm amidst the turmoil of the global economic crisis. The economic crisis continues however, and the experts say the new government should focus on protecting Lebanon.

The global economic crisis    

The president of the World Union of Arab Banks, Joseph Torbey, recently called for the Lebanese government to create a ‘national strategy’ to strengthen the financial and monetary system against the financial crisis. Torbey says a strategy is urgently needed, given Lebanon’s large public debt.

This was backed by Freddie Baz, general manager of Bank Audi sal-Audi Saradar Group, who wrote in the Daily Star that the financial crisis was worse than anyone could ever imagine. A similarly gloomy view was reflected in a comment by an anonymous J.P. Morgan adviser quoted in the Star. The advisor didn’t see an end to this crisis before 2015.

So, despite the fact Lebanon has so far escaped the consequences of the global economic crisis, and even benefited from the crisis through increased deposits, there may still be a long, rough road ahead.

Although Lebanon may have benefited from increased deposits, Bank Byblos’ Ghobril says many of the resources for financing the public debt are now gone due to the financial crisis and the lack of liquidity.

The chance to privatize the telecommunications sector and Middle East Airlines has now been missed. Ghobril says even if the privatizations continue, it will be a long time before investors are willing to pay the prices they were eyeing just a year ago, in 2007.

“A Credit Suisse report stated that the government could have received $5 billion for the telecom network but in the current financial crisis the valuation has collapsed,” Ghobril stated.

Most significant for Lebanon is the predicted fall in remittances, which account for 27 percent of Lebanon’s current account receipts — the highest such share in the region. Ghobril warned that the future is precarious for Lebanon economically because of the likelyhood of a huge drop in remittances.

“Standard and Poor’s carried out a stress test that showed that if remittances drop by 20-30 percent, as expected, this would lead to a current account deficit of 17 percent of GDP,” Ghobril says.

Not only does Lebanon have to cope with its citizens abroad not sending money back, but Safa says the new government will also have to cope with “waves of Lebanese [who] may return.”

“A main challenge for the government will be finding jobs for all of these returnees,” says Safa.

The wrap-up

The challenges for the Lebanese economy and next government are enormous. It is clear that the main priority for the next Lebanese government should be stability, and once this is achieved then the many challenges to the Lebanese economy can be addressed.

These challenges are intertwined and can be solved through the creation of good governance policies. Good governance in the current sectarian system is yet to be achieved and many doubt the upcoming election results, regardless of who wins, will change this feature of Lebanese government.

However, if the above priorities are addressed in an economic strategy that is then implemented, the economic woes of the budget deficit, the balance of payments, social inequalities and the trade deficit could all start to be ameliorated. Being content with stability, however, may be more realistic.

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Finance

UAE – Sovereign salvation

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

The decongested streets of Dubai seem strangely incongruent with the message that the federal government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would have you to believe — that the effects of the global financial crisis haven not been severe in the UAE.

Egyptian investment bank EFG-Hermes estimates that the total population of the UAE — of which more than 80 percent is comprised of expatriates — will contract by  5.5 percent by the end of this year, propelled by Dubai which is forecasted to lose 17 percent of its inhabitants. While the well-endowed government saves its economy through multi-billion dollar bond issuances, setting up emergency funding facilities and pumping numerous liquidity injections into the banking sector, bankers can take a big sigh of relief, but not  for long. Indeed, the deep-pocketed sovereign is propping up the country’s banking system — addressing major issues such as tightened liquidity conditions and toughening up their risk management strategies. But with the ailing real estate market and soaring job cuts, banks have more to worry about than just increasing their cash flow.
In order to efficiently manage the effects of the financial crisis, the UAE sovereign entities are aiding the banking sector to positively, and briskly, move forward. With liquidity conditions finally looking up, analysts say the UAE economy — including its banking sector — is on the mend. As the world faces an indefinite period of recession and recovery, many investors are looking for safe havens to secure financial opportunities. Once the real estate sector hits rock bottom, the UAE hopes individuals and investors alike will flock back to the country, allowing Dubai to continue its reign as the region’s top trading and business hub.
With its affluent, robust government standing behind it, the UAE banking sector is well positioned to fight the crisis head on. Unfortunately, the ongoing property crisis has taken its toll on banks’ profitability and swollen their portfolios. The government has tried to jump-start recovery through various cash injections and recapitalizations, and there are hints of mergers and acquisitions among the UAE’s 52 banks. Bankers are hoping that this year will be less tumultuous than the last, aiming for conservative risk management policies and overall cautious moves.

Sheltered from on top
With the largest debt in the Gulf, the UAE’s only hope is through its sovereign entities, like Dubai Inc. Dubai Inc. is a collection of government-owned companies with an estimated $80 billion in short-term debt to date, a significant increase from the $60 billion debt it had in November of last year.
Once the global financial crisis washed over the Gulf, the federal government of the Emirates reacted “practically overnight,” according to Rajai Ayyash, country manager for UAE, Kuwait and Oman at The Bank of New York Mellon.
Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) started by setting up a $32.6 billion emergency funding facility in the fourth quarter of 2008. It then injected $4.4 billion into Abu Dhabi banks, and issued a $20 billion bond to the government of Dubai. Now with the most recent move taken by Abu Dhabi to raise $10 billion in bonds through international investors from Europe and North America, it is crystal clear that the affluent UAE government is willing and able to prop up its economy and banking sector.
“From a capacity point of view, the federal government is in a good position to provide support and we think that this is one of the main advantages for UAE banks, compared with other systems in the MENA region,” says Dr. Mohamed Damak, a ratings specialist in the financial services group at Standard & Poor’s in Paris.
Classifying the UAE government as “interventionist toward the banking system,” Damak says “from a willingness point of view, the willingness is apparently there and the track record is strong in terms of support.”
Without a doubt, if it weren’t for the deep-pocketed Emirati sovereign helping to fix the fight, the banking sector and the entire economy would have been dropped to the canvas in the opening rounds of global financial turmoil. Still, even with the government’s efforts, the effects of the international financial catastrophe have been rather bleak.
In mid-April, the CBUAE announced that its assets and liabilities had declined by 32 percent to $52.7 billion at the end of 2008, down from $77.8 billion in 2007. The last time the CBUAE posted any such decline in assets was in 2003, when assets shrank by a mere 1.4 percent. Currently there are no figures as to how much local banks lost last year, but so far nine of 18 listed national banks that have released results have recorded higher profits – including NBAD, National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah Bank, Emirates NBD, while the other nine banks — Dubai Islamic Bank, Mashreq Bank, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) and Dubai Commercial Bank — have suffered noteworthy losses.
National Bank of Fujairah, for example, reported losses of $13.7 million in 2008 and $88.2 million in 2007. The largest bank in the region by assets, Emirates NBD, faced fallout in relation to the Madoff scandal in the US, says Raj Madha, director of equity research at EFG-Hermes in Dubai.
ADCB also took hits from US exposures and First Gulf Bank (FGB) had hedge fund exposure. “In all these cases they’re trying to shut down these exposures, but they shouldn’t have been in those [situations] in the first place,” Madha says. “In most ways, it’s difficult to say what they should be doing now because now we’re seeing what they should have been doing a year ago.”
An area in which the government’s efforts have made a difference in recent months is addressing the liquidity situation. Before the fateful weekend of September 13, 2008 banks in the Emirates were awash with liquidity as foreign ‘hot money’ was streaming into the country, with investors expecting a revaluation of the dirham. Cash deposits surged thereafter, and the flowing liquidity empowered banks to go on a lending binge.
As noted by a recent Moody’s report, the national banks used short-term deposits to fund long-term loans. After letting go of the idea of a currency revaluation, foreign investors were briskly withdrawing their money and thus liquidity in the Emirates began drying up. It was in late 2007 that the UAE started feeling the noose tightening on liquidity, and Moody’s estimates that liquidity fell to around four percent of total banking assets. Bankers estimate that more than $51.7 billion exited the country in 2008.
The various sovereign measures taken since the fourth quarter of 2008 have resulted in more liquidity in the banking sector in recent months. Youssef Nasr, chief executive officer of HSBC Middle East, says the amount of liquidity had “significantly improved” in the last four to five months.
Ayyash agrees with Nasr, pointing out that currently “individuals and family businesses are more confident in the local banking sector and are thus depositing more and more cash [into the banks].”
“Also, international banks are back [on] the scene again, selectively reestablishing lines, which is very important,” Nasr says.
Madha accredits the enhancement of the liquidity situation to banks yielding their offers of high deposit rates — some as high as seven percent — as well as significantly lowered inter-bank rates.
“The spread over US dollar libel has come down more into line with the rest of the GCC countries, which is obviously a positive,” says Madha.
Others agree that the liquidity situation is healthier than it was just a few months ago. But it is still not as high as it was this time last year.
“[The] liquidity situation is still under pressure compared with the situation a year ago, when the system was flush with liquidity coming from outside, betting on the revaluation of the dirham,” Standard & Poor’s Mohamed Damak says. “But, we understand the situation has eased significantly in the past few months due to the intervention that was put in place by authorities.”
But New York Mellon’s Ayyash is confident that “liquidity is no longer an issue.”
However, Moody’s Middle East analyst John Tofarides says that while liquidity has gotten much better, it is “still being financed by the government.”
“In order to assume normal deposit growth, you have to have, at the same time, economic growth, because deposits are created by a function of economic growth,” Tofarides says. “If we have a slowdown in 2009, then the deposit growth would be — under normal circumstances — negative, but here we have government support injecting money from outside the system, thus balancing it out.”

UAE bond
The first quarter of 2009 has been quite eventful for the UAE, with the federal government issuing two separate bonds just less than two months apart. The first was issued in February, announcing a $20 billion bond for Dubai’s sovereign. Luckily, half of this was automatically raised by the CBUAE, leaving the remaining $10 billion to be raised in two to three years — when the bank thought it would be needed.
As of April, Dubai had already distributed more than half of the funds from the first $10 billion tranche to several quasi-government companies in the form of loans, with an appealing interest rate of four percent.
Director general of Dubai’s Department of Finance, Nasser al-Shaikh, told DubaiEye Radio on April 22 that “all the support that we extend… is in the form of loans, the tenor of which is a bit shorter than our commitment to the central bank to ensure that we have the money paid to us before we repay it to the central bank.”
Declining to name the recipients, al-Shaikh did mention that state-affiliated real estate companies had taken some money from the funds. Al-Shaikh added that the government would not wait for the initial $10 billion to be fully used up before rolling out the second $10 billion. Exactly when the next $10 billion would be launched depends on the requirements of “more than 10” quasi-government organizations he said, adding that the government is looking at numerous options “within and beyond the country” for raising the funds.
An EFG-Hermes Research analysis released in April pointed out that, “[such] comments stand in contrast to newsflow earlier in the year, which indicated that the second tranche would not be needed for two to three years.”
Whenever the rest is used, the bond “puts confidence back into the market,” says Dr. Eckart Woertz, program manager of economics at Dubai’s Gulf Research Center. “It helps Dubai to alleviate the worse fears for 2009, to ensure refinancing; not more, not less.”
As for the $10 billion Abu Dhabi bond program announced in April, only $3 billion has actually been launched so far. Hamad Al Hurr Al Suwaidi, under-secretary at the Department of Finance, commented last month that Abu Dhabi intends to raise the remaining $7 billion for the program over the next two years.
Of the program’s $3 billion launched, al-Suwaidi noted that investors from North America and Europe bought 90 percent of the 10-year issue bonds, and 75 percent of the five-year issue bonds, on the $3 billion. Asian investors constituted around five percent of the total bond program.
Dr. Giyas Gökkent, chief economist and acting head of asset management at the National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) — the country’s second largest bank by total assets — reveals that “the purposes of the Abu Dhabi bond issue were: one, to create a sort of benchmark for other borrowers and secondly, to gauge market appetite for bond issues from the region and the UAE. The oversubscription showed that clearly there is demand for good credit, so the reason why Abu Dhabi is doing [this bond] is clearly because they have a large number of projects and from a capital use perspective, [Abu Dhabi] found it useful to go this route.”
Gökkent adds that the bond was issued to aid the funding of projects going forward in Abu Dhabi, while in Dubai the bonds are being used to finance Dubai Inc. debts.

What the bonds mean for the banks
Logic would lead one to believe that people will begin depositing money into local banks as confidence creeps back into the market. Moody’s Middle East analyst John Tofarides says the bonds “will help [the banks] indirectly because this money will eventually be directed to the corporates; it will be fed through the banking system so at some point it will sit as deposits in the banks and then move to the uses of the corporates and pay contractors.”
Shayne Nelson, regional CEO of Standard Chartered Bank for Middle East and North Africa, echoes this sentiment, stating the bond “indirectly helps the banks and gets the economy moving.”
NBAD’s Gökkent believes that these bond programs “[lessen] the pressure on the banking system,” as the federal sovereign is giving “a fresh $10 billion to the Dubai government to inject in various companies, which means that the money did not come from the banking sector itself.”
“It’s complementary to the banking sector resources and it therefore does not put further pressure on the banking system, as the banking [sector] in the UAE had a somewhat high loan-to-deposit ratio [and] the balance sheets were already somewhat stretched,” Gökkent says.
HSBC Middle East CEO Youssef Nasr says the Dubai bond is “very positive,” adding that “the amount is sufficient for meeting all of Dubai’s current maturities of debt in 2009 and it allows the Dubai government to proceed with its budget plans.”
All in all, the bonds “seem to be achieving what [they were] designed to achieve,” states EFG-Hermes’ Madha.

Risky business
Presently, the real estate market is still a chief concern throughout the banking sector. Bank of New York Mellon’s Ayyash asserts that “the real estate sector is the most significant sector in the UAE economy and it has been hit the most.”
Woertz believes that the property market in Dubai is “pretty much a mess.” Gökkent mentions that “some banks got ahead of themselves, offering credit [to real estate developers and investors] without looking at the risk” involved. Woertz trusts that Dubai will remain a trading hub, and that more people will move to the UAE once the property market hits rock bottom.
“Investors will come back,” he says. “Many investors will go bankrupt, new investors will come in and buy it cheaper […] that’s capitalism, basically. It’s the end of many real estate investors over here, but not the end of the Dubai model.”
The situation is changing so fast in Dubai it’s hard to tell exactly what is happening. The lack of transparency doesn’t help one to get a clear picture either. What is known is that the population grew exponentially over the last 10 years, with expats coming to make up an estimated 80 percent of the population. That growth helped fuel construction and real estate prices. Now, the UAE’s growth is slowing.
As the end of the school year creeps up, the UAE is waiting to see how many more expatriates leave once they can take their children back home. With Dubai canceling 54,684 residency visas in January 2009 alone — around 1,764 per day, according to EFG-Hermes — foreign laborers losing their jobs create a ‘skip risk’ for national banks.
The law in the UAE does not permit unemployed expatriates to reside in the country for more than one month after being terminated; it forces them to leave the country and thus puts them at higher risk of defaulting on all sorts of loans taken from local banks. Woertz illustrates this concern, saying “there is a larger risk for banks here than elsewhere, because the expatriate incentive to walk away is pretty significant. Even the obligation to walk away — you’re not allowed to stay here if you don’t have a job here.”
Nasr explains that the reason the law is so strict on expatriates being forced to leave after only four weeks of unemployment is an “old philosophy… If you don’t have a job, you might become a burden on the state,” Nasr says. “It’s being offset by the fact that if the person has to leave it means he has an empty house, he won’t pay his debt, he’ll turn back his car.”
Nasr says the government is trying to find middle ground with the law, and allowing people to stay six months is being considered. But Nasr says until the law is amended and people start staying in the country, “skip risk is something we’re all going to have to deal with.”
Woertz says that even if the UAE extends the residency law to six months, “why should you stay?”
“You don’t get any unemployment benefits, it’s still pretty expensive although the rents have come down. So if you’re fired now, just forget it.”
Whether the law is altered or not, banks will definitely need to watch out for foreign borrowers skipping town and defaulting on their loans.
Dealing with this hangover in the banking sector has created room for some bankers to reach some  rather obvious epiphanies. Robert Thursfield, a director in equity research at Fitch Ratings in Dubai, asserts that national banks’ approaches to risk management “have become more cautious, although given the rapid growth of the last few years, this was inevitable once liquidity tightened significantly.”
Woertz says he thinks banks will be more risk-averse this year, while cutting lending to implement stricter rules on mortgages and credit card limits. What banks need to do this year, insists Nasr, is have capital and “get deposits first and then lend, not the other way around,” which is what was happening in 2008.
Due to numerous ill-calculated moves prior to the global meltdown, this year banks will naturally witness a significant slowdown in growth and profitability. Woertz is pessimistic, and doesn’t “see any growth potential at all — growth potential was yesterday.”
With such rapid growth over the last few years, the UAE will unavoidably experience a slowdown in bank profitability, albeit most banks will still manage to profit while a few others could break even in 2009.

‘After the drunkenness’
Referencing the Arabic expression, ‘After the drunkenness, there is an awakening,’ Nasr notes that, “we went through a period of drunkenness. But it’s back to basics [now].”
Unfortunately, he says, many of bankers forgot what banking was all about “for a few years.” Investors went a little crazy in recent years, diving first into stocks and then irrationally investing in the real estate market, with banks taking the brunt as they gave out loans at an excessive pace, disproportionate to their actual lending capabilities. Woertz says the loan-to-deposit ratio is over 100 percent in the UAE, “so it’s not as conservative as the 85 percent in Saudi Arabia.”
“Banks in the UAE grew their loans by more than 70 to 90 percent in 2008,” notes Gökkent, suggesting that the number is quite excessive.
“People tend to prefer shorter-term deposits and longer-term loans,” Nasr says. “The banking system plays a useful role in terms of bridging this gap between deposits and lenders, [especially] when they have different liquidity preferences.”
He adds that “we started getting into situations where banks were using overnight money or one month money and making 10-year loans. That’s irrational because you’re assuming that it’s going to roll over for the next 10 years, but it doesn’t happen [that way].”
Now, banks in the UAE — and around the globe, for that matter — will be focusing on reprioritizing their domestic agendas. The primary concern for national banks is to reassess and beef-up their risk management strategies, which can be done through more conservative lending policies and basic, cautious banking.

What to do?
Outsiders might find it strange as to why there have been no big mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the UAE since the crisis took hold. But “under normal circumstances,” explains Gökkent, “[M&A] should have already happened because there was stress in the system… but because the UAE is so well endowed in terms of large accumulation of assets over the years, so far they haven’t had the need to do that.” This leads back to the eminent benefit of having an ultra-wealthy government backing you up.
This year, Madha believes that banks should be “sticking to the knitting.” While the UAE government has laid the foundation for recovery, banks can now focus on their core business and best practices. After the drunken hangover fully passes, banks and the economy of the UAE will have an opportunity to realign their agendas. Ayyash says the “only thing we can do is not to fall into the same trap and have all your portfolio concentrated in one sector; maybe they need to diversify and redefine their portfolios.”
Nasr predicts that “some banks will become more focused on retail or commercial business [and] become more specialized.”
In 2009 UAE banks will have to either sink or swim. Banks should keep in mind that, “The banking system is not an end, it’s just a means,” says Woertz.

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Levant

Amal Movement – Opposition

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Yassine Jaber, 58, has been a member of Parliament since 1996 and has held several posts in the Lebanese government. He has served as a former Minister of Economy and Trade as well as Minister of Public Works and Transport. Mr. Jaber is part of the Amal Movement and is running for the Shiite seat in the Nabatieh electoral district.

E The United Nations estimates that 28.5 percent of Lebanon’s population lives below the poverty line and 300,000 people live in extreme poverty. What will you do to alleviate the poverty situation?
In terms of poverty, two issues are involved. First, we have to provide a safety net for the poor, so that is why we talk about health, we talk about education and we talk about social help by having the social affairs Ministry become more ethical.
The other face [of the coin] of course is that you cannot give money to people to make them less poor. We have to work on economic development. To have economic development there are requirements that involve many issues. How can you eliminate poverty if you don’t encourage agriculture? Most of the poor people live in the rural areas and other parts of Lebanon that have been completely neglected. We have to work on agriculture; we have to encourage more production in industry. But, for instance, how can you have agriculture without having water and irrigation systems and all that?

E Do you think infrastructure development is the main issue that needs to be addressed?
No, not only. It’s policies that will help provide infrastructure. If you have the right policies and the supporting infrastructure, then you can have more economic activity. Of course you need there to be stability.

E Électricité du Liban (EDL) has been a drain on the budget for over a decade; what will you do to decrease expenditure and improve efficiency?
The first step is to start implementing Law 462 issued in 2002. We have to diversify, we have to find new sources of energy, we have to encourage new policies. But, we have a very rigid system at the moment where we are unable to employ new talents and develop a new management.
EDL… [falls] under a decree called 4517 which puts a lot of restrictions on the way you employ people and on the salaries you pay to engineers and technicians. Which engineer do you know who will work for $600 or $700 per month?
The law 462, which is a law that restructures the electricity system in Lebanon, first of all stipulates that EDL has to be corporatized. Once you corporatize, it’s easier to maneuver. It’s easier to bring in talent and to make decisions. At the moment it’s impossible. The cadre of EDL [should be] 5,800 people and they only have 2,000 whose average age is 58 years old. It is impossible to work under such circumstances. I think we need to restructure it, corporatize it and allow it to work as a private company…
Once it is corporatized, we should allow the private sector to come into production because I don’t think Lebanon is going to be able to finance factories that we need. Open the window for the private sector to take part. For those who panic at the word ‘privatization’, this is not 100 percent. In the law [Law 462] we made sure — and I was one of the MPs who took part in every detail of the law — not to allow immediate sale in the sector. It’s corporatized, [meaning] it could, at a time to be decided, whenever [the government] feels comfortable, sell a share not more than 40 percent, a minority share, to the private sector; if they decide not to, [the government] could not sell and as we go on. If it’s flourishing and making a lot of money for the government, then we can sell tranches of the shares.
This sector is very important but for those who panic at private sector involvement, well, at the moment the private sector is producing most of the electricity through small generators in every street in Lebanon. At least we will have a uniform system that functions.

E What do you think about the distribution and collection side of things? Do you think these should also be considered for privatization?
It could be discussed. Lebanon could be cut into sectors and get the private sector involved, but first you have to start being able to have the authority to look at the idea. Unless the law is implemented, you cannot start… Once you implement the law, all these options become available. Then you can introduce policies.
It’s not only, for example, a matter of producing new capacities of electricity. Also we have to look at the possibility of every home in Lebanon having its hot water system work on solar energy. We have to encourage people to go into solar energy because we have 300 days of sunshine in Lebanon.
So we have to change the way we are running the electricity sector at the moment by implementing the law and bring[ing] more freedom to management to bring in new talent, new producers from the private sector as well as look[ing] at all the options of how you collect. Let’s hope that the new government can embark on this new approach.

E The servicing of Lebanon’s debt is weighing heavily on Lebanon. How will you reallocate inflows and payments to service this debt while still maintaining public services and decreasing the budget deficit?
First we have to stop the drain. You have to look at all the black holes to stop the deficit from growing, then work towards reducing the budget deficit. Dealing with the electricity issue is one aspect of it because it is a component, as well as looking at the banking sector as part of the solution and not part of the problem. Unfortunately, these days some politicians make general statements accusing the banking system of overcharging on the interest. But, I think we liked what happened in Paris II when the banks provided fresh loans for 0 percent. These are ideas that can be looked at.
As an MP at the moment, and to be realistic, we are not going to be able to do anything about the debt unless we start dealing with important issues like the new gas and oil findings in Lebanon. I am very surprised at how slow this present government and the government before have been in dealing with this issue. Unfortunately, PGS (Petroleum Geo Services), which is the company that made the surveys, did them for Lebanon and for Cyprus. If you look at Cyprus today, they have passed a new law; they have started excavation and digging. They are moving forward while we haven’t moved from ‘point A’ yet. We are still at the very beginning.

E Why do you think there is such reluctance to move forward?
I don’t know! This is a question that really bewilders me. The political system in Lebanon has been paralyzing the country. A lot of institutions are paralyzed. For example, sport [facilities] in Lebanon, we don’t use them. Why don’t we give the private sector the opportunity to manage these sports [facilities] for example? Bring events into Lebanon. Unfortunately, you feel like there is no initiative from the government. I feel sometimes that nobody is really sitting down and really thinking about things. Nobody is really sitting down and looking at the big wealth of real estate that the government owns and how to utilize it to make money out of it. These are all issues that I would look at in order to try and bring in new income to reduce the budget deficit. We need to sit down and make a list of priorities and have groups working on every issue that is important.

E Recently the International Labor Organization (ILO) reported that 22,000 students dropped out of schools in Lebanon; what will you do to curb this phenomena and to facilitate human development in Lebanon?
Most of these dropouts are coming out of public schools. As far as human resources, Lebanon has done well in general because of all the private schooling and the good universities. But, we have to pay more attention to the public schools. We have to develop a policy to make sure that students don’t leave.
Not all of the people who drop out are staying in Lebanon and just becoming bums. A lot of young people from the ages of 16 to 18 are leaving to go to Africa or Latin America. In other cases you have families getting poorer and they have to have the boys work; this is why we are seeing an advancement in girl’s education.
I think we have to pay attention to public schools and we have to really work on vocational schools.

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Financial Indicators

Regional equity markets

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Beirut SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 1,629.74  Current Year Low: 705.56

The BLOM Stock Index tracking share prices on the Beirut Stock Exchange closed the March 27 session at 1047.92 points, 20 points lower than its close on February 27. The BSI is down 11 percent from the start of 2009. In the review period, eight sessions to close with a gain were outnumbered by 12 sessions that saw the market drop. However, all trading sessions ended with index fluctuations of less than one percent, except for March 25 when the index slipped 1.44 percent, pulled down by six percent and 3.2 percent price losses in the two share classes of real estate firm Solidere when a substantial amount of shares were offered for sale at a discount to the previous close. In Beirut, analysts assumed that this sudden drop in the share price of Solidere was triggered by an individual trader’s need for cash. In fiscal news, the Lebanese Republic announced that it successfully swapped $2.1 billion in Eurobonds with maturity in 2009 for longer-term bonds, which will mature in 2012 and 2017. As the elections for the Lebanese parliament are taking more and more hold of public attention, the BSE will likely be under the spell of the elections in the second quarter.

Amman SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 5,043.72  Current Year Low: 2,550.70

The Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) rode the bandwagon of market gains to close the March 29 session four percent higher at 2,721.48 points when compared with the close at the end of February. The positive sessions in March cut the ASE Index’s contraction in the first quarter of 2009 down to 1.3 percent. For the first quarter of 2009, the insurance sector index was the best performer on the ASE with a 16.3 percent gain. Banking took the other end of the share price spectrum, weakening 17 percent from the start of 2009. Banking was also the only sector to underperform the general index in March whereas the services index, up 7.4  percent, accounted for the month’s strongest gain. Real estate sector companies attracted significant action from traders while the undisputed top share price gainer was the specialized mortgage insurance firm Darkom Finance and Investments Co. The share price of the company, which had started operations in mid 2008, rose 68 percent in March.

Abu Dhabi SM  (one month)

Current Year High: 5,148.49  Current Year Low: 2,136.64

The larger of the UAE securities markets closed at 2,545.65 points on March 29 in a second consecutive month of gains, achieving 7.1 percent from the end of February. Gains rolled nicely in almost every session starting March 18 and the momentum flattened at the end of the review period as attention shifted towards first-quarter result expectations, which are mixed. The energy and telecommunications sub-indices led the market up with gains of 19.5 percent and 18 percent, whereas the construction index lagged behind and couldn’t catch the up-train. Construction ended 26 percent lower, however, real estate gained 8.3 percent. The strongest gainer in the period was the new health insurance specialist, Green Crescent Insurance Co; whereas the insurance sector index was flat, debutant Green Crescent added 38 percent in its first two trading sessions when compared with the issue price. Building materials company Arkan was the market’s biggest loser in March. The scrip, which had dropped about 55 percent in the first half of the month, made good some of its losses in the second half but ended the review period 37.8 percent lower.

Dubai FM  (one month)

Current Year High: 5,859.57  Current Year Low: 1,433.14

The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) closed at 1,604.71 points on March 29, representing a gain of just under three percent in the month of March. The trading range fluctuated between an intra-month low of 1,490 and a high of 1,623 points. The utilities sub-index was the strongest performer on the DFM but most sectors moved in positive territory, except for banking which ended the review period 1.6 percent lower and materials which lost five percent. When compared with the end of 2008, however, materials, investments, and real estate are all still quite deep in the hole, with losses ranging from 14 percent to 40 percent. Dubai Islamic Bank and sharia-compliant insurer Salama Group were the best performers of the month, moving up 33 percent and 29.5  percent, respectively. Drake and Skull International, the construction group which started trading last month on the DFM after waiting with its entry as long as possible since its initial public offering in July 2008, was not so lucky. The new stock was the DFM’s biggest loser in March, ending the period 33 percent lower from its issue price of 1 AED per share.  

Kuwait SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 15,654.80            Current Year Low: 6,391.50

The Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) Index ended the review period at 6,739.70 points on March 29, representing a climb of more than 5.4 percent from the last session in February. March performance mitigated the unfriendly picture of the first quarter, but the year-to-date loss at 13.4 percent remains one of the steeper slides on Arab bourses in 2009. By respectively adding 20 percent, 13 percent and 12 percent, the food, banking, and investment sub-indices were on the forefront of the bourse’s uptrend in March and most other sector indices moved range bound with the general index, except for insurance, which weakened in early March and stayed at the bottom during the review period. While the KSE still saw 12 companies lose between a fifth and half of their share prices in the month of March, this was more than countered by the number of gainers where 34 companies appreciated in share price by 20 percent or more — as biggest gainer, real estate company Massaleh almost doubled its share price, whereas Gulf Insurance Company had a second month of turmoil and ended 49.4 percent lower. Political worries weighed on the KSE as discussions of an economic stimulus package were juxtaposed with resignation of cabinet and dissolution of parliament.

Saudi Arabia SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 10,291.47            Current Year Low: 4,264.52

The Saudi Stock Exchange (TASI) closed at 4,752.32 points on March 25, up 8.39 percent from the last close in February. It ended the first quarter with a loss of 1.05 percent when comparing the March 25 close with the last close in 2008 and with a loss of 5.87 percent when compared with the close on the first trading day. The difference in TASI performance between the two methods of defining the year-to-date period in 2009 is exceptionally wide which is a reminder of the volatility of the trading, making it more interesting to check other vitality stats. The TASI trading volume in the first quarter represented close to 75 percent of total GCC trading volume, a dominant proportion of regional trading activity and substantially higher than the Saudi bourse’s 44 percent share in total GCC market cap at the end of Q1, according to Zawya financial data. Led by three insurers and debutant Ethihad Atheeb, the share prices of 24 stocks rose by more than 25 percent apiece, whereas nine stocks shed a quarter of their wealth or more. Overall, gainers outnumbered losers by healthy margins in the quarter, but the ratio in March was about equal. 

Muscat SM  (one month)

Current Year High: 12,109.10            Current Year Low: 4,223.63

The only market that suffered a drop in its general index in March 2009 was Oman. Whereas it had held up better than other GCC exchanges in February, the Muscat Securities Market Index closed at 4,722.95 points on March 29, representing drops of 2.69  percent on the month and of 13.2  percent on the year. The industry sub-index made an upward escape in the March review period and closed 9.2 percent higher; banking and services did not manage to cross into positive territory. Losers outnumbered gainers four to three in the review period from February 26, but it is not to be overlooked that the majority of share price drops were contained in the bracket of less than 10 percent. Market cap leader Omantel, whose CEO resigned at the end of March, suffered a 14.4 percent contraction in share price in the review period. While the company had reported positive results for 2008, its Q4 net profit declined by two thirds due to a difficult time at its subsidiary in Pakistan. Banking heavyweight Bank Muscat showed a slight share price gain at 1.4 percent in March. 

Bahrain SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 2,902.68  Current Year Low: 1,572.19

Of the six GCC bourses that showed gains in the month of March, the Bahrain Stock Exchange (BSE) Index added the least, with a 0.85 percent index improvement to 1,590.92 points at its March 29 close when compared with the last session in February. The BSE has a negative performance for the first quarter, with a drop of 11.2  percent since the start of the year. Banking (-18.5  percent) and services (-13.5 percent) were the sectors with significant underperformance in the first three months of 2009. In March, however, the previously oversold banking index made a contrarian move and outperformed the general index by more than five percentage points, with investments (+1.1  percent) a distant second place in up-moving sectors. As the financial world is awaiting the next round of global restructuring talks, this time by the G20, the tiny Bahraini bourse is as good an example as any for the uncertainty of markets under the thumb of global influences. While a pessimistic band of dark augers, the region’s investment houses described recent upswings in developed markets as bear market rallies and not as a swing into recovery. One may be wise not to exclude any possibilities, not even positive surprises later in 2009.

Doha SM  (one month)

Current Year High: 12,627.32            Current Year Low: 4,230.19

Investors on the Doha Stock Market (DSM) apparently exhausted their capacity for pessimism and, at least for the review period from February 26 to March 29, they made the stocks shine on the DSM. The general index added net 660 points over the period to its close at 5,098.51 points on March 29, representing a GCC-leading gain of 14.9 percent even as profit taking occurred in the last session of the review period. Volatility on the DSM was significant, at 48 percent according to Zawya. Industrial and banking outperformed the general index, while the insurance index underperformed. Notably, many large caps were in demand and gainers included all five of the strongest companies by market cap: Industries Qatar (+30.9 percent), Qatar National Bank (+37.7 percent), Qatar Telecom (+16.4 percent), Qatar Islamic Bank (+8.9 percent) and Ezdan Real Estate (+39.7 percent). Other strong gainers were Ahli Bank and Qatar Commercial Bank. The banking sector received positive news at the beginning of March as the government took measures to infuse liquidity into banks through a decision to purchase investment portfolios held by banks on the DSM.

Tunis SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 3,418.13  Current Year Low: 2,685.76

Adding 29.5 points from February 26 to March 27 means that the Tunindex of the Tunisian Stock Exchange benefited only with a one percent gain from the positive developments, which pushed the Nasdaq for the first time this year into the black on March 26 and let most GCC securities markets partly recover from their losses in the first ten or eleven weeks of the year — but then the TSE was already moving up in the first two months of 2009 so that its status at the end of Q1 is 6.6 percent up year-to-date. Battery manufacturer Assad was the market’s top advancer in March with a 16 percent increase in its share price. Market cap heavyweights Poulina Holding and Banque de Tunisie recorded moderate drops in their share prices, weakening by 2.3 percent and 1.1  percent, respectively.

Casablanca SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 14,878.30            Current Year Low: 9,405.86

Buying moods from earlier in 2009 faded on the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSA) in March and the Index retreated 5.3 percent to close at 10,628.29 points on March 27. The index slipped especially in the period between March 16 and 24 before adding about 200 points to the end of the review period. For the year to date, the weaker performance in March means that the CSE Index neared the end of the first quarter at a 3.25 percent lower reading than at the start of 2009. In news relating to listed companies, the Moroccan government announced the licensing of a new mobile operator. The third GSM license went to a company called Wana, part of the Omnium North Africa conglomerate. Maroc Telecom, the market cap leader on the CSE, saw its share price under pressure after the announcement and ended March 4.8 percent lower. Maroc Telecom formally announced its 2008 results on March 23, reporting an increase in net profits of almost 19 percent.

Egypt CASE (one month)

Current Year High: 11,935.67            Current Year Low: 3,389.31

The Egyptian bourse, long seen as the region’s exchange with the strongest alignment to international markets, in March boomed more than any other Arab securities market. The EGX 30 Index closed the March 29 session at 4,332.56 points, signifying a 20.5 percent increase from the last session in February. However, it is a reminder of how steeply the EGX fell in the first two months of 2009 that the index is still 5.74 percent down from the start of the year. With only seven companies seeing their share prices go deeper in the red in March, the positive mood on the exchange was broad even as its capability of endurance cannot be judged as yet. Two companies in the market’s medium to small size range more than doubled their share prices in March but more significantly, the market cap heavyweights Orascom Telecom Holding and Orascom Construction Industries respectively added 43.4 percent and 27 percent and were way up there in the gainers together with a diverse spectrum of companies from real estate to manufacturing.

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Banking & Finance

Money Matters by BLOMINVEST Bank

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Regional stock market indices

Regional currency rates

Cairo to build a $2 billion power plant

Cairo will be constructing a $2 billion power plant in Ain Sokhna on the Gulf of Suez. The plant will provide 1,300 megawatts (MW) of steam power and will be the first in Egypt to use supercritical technology. A similar venture will increase the overall efficiency of the plant allowing a faster response to the change in demand while reducing emissions. The project will be financed by two loans and several funds by Arab contributors. The first loan amounting to $450 million is signed with the African Development Bank and will cover 22 percent of the cost of the project, while the second loan will be given by the World Bank and will amount to $600 million. The remaining funding for the project will come from the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC), the Arab Fund for Economic & Social Development (AFESD), and the Kuwaiti Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFAED).

Saudi company to sign $2.5 billion power project

The Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) will sign a deal with both Korea Electric Power corporation and the local Acwa Power International for the $2.5 billion Rabigh independent power project (IPP). The SEC stated that it will announce the pre-qualified bidders for the PP11 IPP power project in Riyadh by the end of March. The SEC changed the shareholding structure of the project, giving a 51 percent stake for the winning bidder, while the remaining 49 percent will be sold in an initial public offering (IPO). The old ratio had been 40:60, giving the bulk to individual shareholders. In another economic highlight, inflation in Saudi Arabia is excepted to continue falling this year. Consumer prices retreated in February to 6.9 percent from 7.9 percent in the previous month.

UAE inflation to drop in 2009

The key drivers of inflation in 2008 — liquidity, cost of housing and cost of food — are not expected to increase this year. Therefore, inflation in the UAE is expected to ease to two to three percent in 2009. Next year is expected to be the year of recovery from the financial crisis for the Gulf, Asia and Africa, which are relatively less affected than the US, UK and the Eurozone, where the recovery is expected to take a longer period. Moreover, the UAE is putting into action the lessons learned from the recession. For example, the other side of the downturn in the UAE’s real estate sector could be positive for the economy as funds and human resources that were primarily geared for the real estate sector could now be used in other productive industries. In addition, the fiscal and monetary measures taken by the UAE authorities, in the form of direct liquidity injections, has boosted the confidence of investors locally and regionally. This confidence is being confirmed by the current satisfactory levels of credit growth that range between 10 percent to 15 percent, after reaching 49 percent last June.

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North Africa

Clashing cells

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Maroc Telecom (MT) has long held a dominant share of Morocco’s mobile market, but a new entrant will increase competition for the kingdom’s subscribers. On February 4, the National Agency for the Regulation of Telecommunications (Agence Nationale de Réglementation des Télécommunications, ANRT) announced that the third second-generation (2G) mobile license had been awarded to Wana, a subsidiary of domestic conglomerate Omnium Nord Afrique (ONA).

Wana’s new 2G GSM license, which pits it against current incumbents MT and Méditel, is only the latest addition to the company’s telecoms portfolio that also includes a third generation (3G) license awarded in 2006. Details on the exact amount of Wana’s bid have not yet been released, but both the ANRT and Wana have described it as a “significant investment.” The new 15-year nationwide license gives Wana access to a market that includes 22.82 million mobile subscribers, according to figures published by the ANRT.

Despite its late start, Wana will hope to take advantage of an under-saturated market, which has a penetration rate of 74 percent, and to entice subscribers with competitive technology and pricing.

ANRT announced the tender on October 30, 2008 as a measure to boost competition and bring down prices in the sector. Since its creation in 1998, after the amendment of the Post Office and Telecommunications Act, the ANRT has been charged with modernizing, regulating and supervising the telecoms sector, while implementing the law, which calls for increased competition to provide consumers with more choice and better products and services. MT, the formerly state-owned company, had a monopoly over the sector until liberalization began in 1999.

MT is a formidable competitor with Vivendi, Europe’s largest entertainment group, now holding a controlling 54 percent share in the company. According to the most recent figures released by the ANRT, Wana controls 1.2 percent of the market, while MT and Meditel have market shares of 65.6 percent and 33.2 percent, respectively.

Despite increased competition from the new entrant, MT has stated that it expects to build on its 2008 growth, predicting a revenue increase of more than three percent this year. On February 23, MT announced that its 2008 net profits rose 18.5 percent year-on-year to $1.16 billion, and that its consolidated earnings from operations were up 13.5 percent to $1.62 billion, with revenue growing 7.2 percent to $3.53 billion, mostly on the back of mobile customers.

As the telecommunications arm of ONA, Wana already has a strong foundation to build on. ONA is Morocco’s biggest conglomerate, with broad interests such as banking, insurance, retailing and mining. Although Wana has been active in other segments of the telecoms market, such as Internet and fixed-line telephony, the new license gives it access to one of the sector’s most lucrative areas. The first mobile phone network, introduced in Rabat in 1989, had 700 subscribers, a figure that jumped to three million by 2000. Mobile phone use has continued to rise and the current national penetration rate of 74 percent far exceeds ANRT’s growth prediction. A 2004 study forecast that it would take until 2014 to reach this level.

Mobile subscribers jumped from 700 in 1989 to three million by the year 2000

Spinning the web

Despite the impressive subscriber growth to date, the government is doing even more to expand the reach of the kingdom’s mobile phone network. In November 2006, the ANRT adopted the Program for Universal Access to Telecommunications (PACT), which aims to connect some two million people and 9,200 remote villages by 2011. The program extends to telephony and Internet services. MT recently signed a $342 million contract to connect more than 7,000 towns and villages nationwide, which represents some 80 percent of the PACT program.

Morocco’s mobile expansion is part of a larger regional trend. Cell phone sales have proved resilient in the Middle East and Africa and purchases are projected to increase 14.77 percent from 176 million units in 2008 to 202 million units in 2009, as prices for handsets fall and more 3G networks are established.

For the kingdom, mobile telephony contributes significantly to the value of the telecoms sector as a whole. Its continued liberalization is expected to increase the industry’s proportion of GDP from seven percent in 2008 to 10 percent in 2009. At a time when other sectors are facing declining demand, telecom is a bright spot in Morocco’s economy.

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North Africa

Private accounts on hold

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Algeria’s banking reform has been slow but could pick up later this year as the general election approaches. The sector appears to have avoided the worst of the global economic crisis, having had little exposure to toxic loans and low levels of overseas activity. Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia remarked last October that the Algerian economic and financial system was protected from the worst of the crisis as it was not as “evolved and our stock market is not fully integrated into the world financial markets.”

The downturn in the international markets has slowed the reform process. A key component of the reform platform was the privatization of some of the six state banks, with the first of these — Crédit Populaire d’Algérie (CPA) — initially slated for sale in early 2008.

Having planned to sell a 51 percent stake and received expressions of interest from a number of foreign banks, the government announced it was suspending the privatization of CPA indefinitely due to concerns over the impact of the global financial crisis. Officials said that conditions were not right for the sale, which the state hoped would raise some $1.5 billion.

It was also suggested that the overall privatization process had been put on hold due to concerns within Algeria over foreign dominance of the banking sector, as well as perceptions that overseas investors across the economy were repatriating profits without contributing to the country.

The Banque d’Algérie serves as both the country’s central bank and as the regulator for the sector. Though the Banque d’Algérie lists 16 private banks as operating in Algeria, it is the six state-owned institutions that dominate the market. According to a report issued by the Gulf Investment House in December 2008, state banks account for 95 percent of the sector’s total assets. To a large extent, this is due to a 2004 government decree that requires public sector entities to work exclusively with state banks, restricting deposit flows to the private segment.

However, Minister of Industry and Investment Promotion, Hamid Temmar, told parliament in mid-January that the government remained committed to privatization and said that the only state enterprises that would not be sold off were those in the energy sector — Sonatrach and Sonelgaz — and the national railway.

Public banks too have problems of their own. Though they do not have any difficulty in attracting deposits, they are proving less successful in keeping staff. According to a report by the Professional Assembly of Banks and Financial Institutions, more than 2,500 officers of state banks have transferred to the private sector since 2001, lured by higher wages. To try to stem the outward flow of staff, the government offered the state’s 23,000 bank employees up to 30 percent pay rises in June 2008.

With a presidential election scheduled for April 9, there is a chance that the stalled privatization process may be reignited, along with the program of banking reform.

The need for reform in the banking sector was highlighted in the latest study by the US-based Heritage Foundation on the openness of the global economy. In its 2009 Index of Economic Freedom, Algeria’s overall economy was ranked 107 out of the 183 countries assessed and 14 out of 17 countries in the Middle East and North African region, with a score of 56.6 out of 100. However, while scoring highly in some categories, such as 72.5 for business freedom, Algeria’s worst result was in financial freedom, rating just 30 points, almost 20 points below the global average.

The report said that the pace of overhauling the banking sector in Algeria had been slow and uneven and that “reform is critical if resource allocation and private sector development are to improve.”

The government wants to see greater diversity in the economy, to move away from a dependency on the energy industry and to broaden the private sector. To achieve this, it will need to push ahead with its reforms of the banking industry, especially the privatization of state lenders, a step that would result in the return of public funds into the private sector.

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Levant

Tanking up with tax

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

At a time when oil prices are half of what they were a year ago, the retail price of gasoline in Lebanon has been stagnant or climbing. For example, in July 2007 when the price of Brent crude was around $78 per barrel, the government raised taxes on gasoline which pushed the price from $14.90 per 20 liters — the standard measurement for gasoline in Lebanon — to $15.64 per 20 liters. This is roughly the same price of gasoline in today’s retail market, at a time when crude sells at around $50 per barrel. Needless to say, this illogical development is confusing for the consumer.

In 1985, then Minister of Finance Camille Chamoun issued a governmental decree abolishing state subsidies on gasoline; so legally the subsidy was removed. However, the government has levied a tax on gasoline, which it increases or decreases at will. When the government decreases the tax, gasoline prices drop giving the feel of a subsidy.

Further exacerbating the situation is that most people in Lebanon rely on private transport. Lebanon’s approximately 1.4 million registered vehicles consume around five million liters of gasoline per day, according to Bahij Abou Hamzeh, president of the Association of Petroleum Importing Companies (APIC) in Lebanon.

Another factor experts in Lebanon point to is unfair competition. “There is an oligopoly controlling gasoline imports to Lebanon and this is the heart of the problem,” says Jad Chaaban, professor of economics at the American University of Beirut and acting president of the Lebanese Economic Association. “The prices are set by the Ministry of Energy in consultation with the APIC. When you have an oligopoly controlling an import sector you cannot pass on decreasing or rising prices with the same efficiency as when you have a competitive market.”

Collusion in a free market

For his part, Abou Hamzeh admits that the association does collude with the Lebanese Ministry of Energy, but insists that the market is open to anyone who has the means to set up the infrastructure.

“We regulate the market in cooperation with the ministry but we have to do it because it’s the only product in Lebanon that has a ceiling for the price,” claims Abou Hamzeh. “The government is setting the ceiling of the price on a weekly basis. This doesn’t mean we cooperate in order to monopolize the market; it’s not what we are after.”

Abou Hamzeh blames the government who earlier this year raised the level of taxes on gasoline to $6.35 per 20 liters of imported gasoline when the price of oil was at around $35 per barrel. Abou Hamzeh adds that the gasoline price ceiling, set weekly, is too low. “The government imposes a ceiling according to the international prices and a small margin to cover additional costs,” says Abou Hamzeh. “This margin does not cover our costs. We cannot continue like this; we are making a loss not a profit.”

Whether or not competition is fair, one thing does remains clear: that the government is making a lot of money. Most estimates are that government revenues from gas tax will increase this year to around $466 million as opposed to $199 million in 2008. On March 19, the Lebanese General Confederation of Labor Unions gathered in front of the Lebanese parliament to protest the high prices and taxes on gasoline and around 150 cars blocked one of Beirut’s main commercial districts.

Tax of necessity

The government, however, seems to have little choice when it comes to removing the tax, since it is already drowning in a sea of debt and in need of more revenue. Furthermore, according to a high ranking member at the Ministry of Finance who spoke on condition of anonymity, the government must keep the higher gasoline tax in place because it has already reneged on two of its other promises made to donors at Paris III: the five to seven percent taxation on bank deposits and the increase of Value Added Tax (VAT). The cherry on top may be that many in the government are reluctant to enact policy due to the upcoming elections in early June.

“When we protest the government tells you, ‘you are right but now we have to have the election’,” says Abou Hamzeh.

Whatever the reasons may be, for the immediate future it seems that the high gasoline prices and price fixing will continue. Once again it seems it will be Lebanon’s people and industries that pay the final price.

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Levant

Carrying capacity

by Peter Grimsditch
written by Peter Grimsditch

Turkey has high hopes of becoming a major transit hub for land and sea cargo freighting, linking Central Asia and the Middle East with Europe, though it will need to invest heavily in infrastructure if its hopes are to be fulfilled. The transport grid already has around 11,000 kilometers (km) of rail lines; 430,000km of roads, including 62,000km of motorways and main roads; a network of ports along its Black Sea, Aegean and Mediterranean coasts and at least one airport in each of its 81 provinces. Even so, the results of a joint study conducted by the European Commission and Turkey’s Ministry of Transport and Communications, released in 2008, showed Turkey has a long way to go before its transport network can service the future needs of the economy.

The Transport Infrastructure Need Assessment (TINA) said priority should be given to improving transport in the North-South and East-West axes to better integrate Turkish transport with international transport networks; upgrading intermodal transport facilities and services, and improving the country’s ports and maritime connections. These improvements will be needed if the assessment’s projections are correct. The report said Turkey’s road freight demand would reach at least 305 million tons by 2020, more than 230 percent up on 2004, the base year used for the study. Train hauled cargos are predicted to more than double to 31.5 million tons, while the merchant marine is expected by 2020 to lift its base total by around 60 percent to 25.3 million tons.

Finding the cash

To meet this demand, Turkey will need to invest more than $25 billion by 2020, with $11 billion dedicated to its rail network and $10.75 billion on roads, according to TINA. The key challenge will be to raise this cash at a time when many other calls are being made on the limited national treasury — including upgrading electricity generation and distribution grids, resolving environmental issues such as waste water processing and improving the health and education services. Though some of this funding gap could be filled by assistance from the EU through its trans-European transport network (TEN-T) program, most of the money will have to come from the state or the private sector, both of which are currently finding it hard to raise funds due to the tight credit markets.

Some of these major projects are well advanced, such as the Marmaray rail project which includes a tunnel beneath the Bosphorus that will link Europe to Asia, and a new high-speed train connection between Ankara and Istanbul. However others, such as duplication of many of the country’s main rail lines, remain on the drawing board. While the government is looking to upgrade and extend infrastructure links with limited fiscal means, the transport industry may find itself in less of a position to enjoy the benefits of the improved networks, at least in the short-term. With Turkey’s economy slowing, in line with those of its major export markets, there has been a fall in demand for long haul road, rail and maritime freighting.

The outline of decline

According to figures released by the Turkish Exporters Association (TIM) in March, overseas sales dropped 35 percent year-on-year in February to $6.87 billion. Industrial output is also contracting, down by 17.6 percent in December compared to the same month in 2008, the Turkish Statistical Institute reported. Lower industrial production means fewer raw materials are being freighted to factories, fewer finished products need to be shipped out, while falling export demand sees reduced calls being made on Turkey’s cargo haulage capacity.

The number of long haul trucks being shipped across the Dardanelles Strait is down by more than 20 percent so far this year, according to local ferry officials. Additionally, according to Erol Yücel, assembly chairman of the Turkish Chamber of Shipping, the steep drop in demand for shipping capacity due to low cargo levels has seen rental prices for ships fall by as much as 98 percent. Turkish exports, and therefore production and the transport sector, may get a boost from the sharp drop in the value of the local currency, with the Turkish lira hitting an all-time-low of 1.78 against the US dollar on March 10. With the cost of Turkish goods becoming more attractive, trade could pick up, helping the transport sector onto the road to recovery.

Peter Grimsditch is Executive’s Turkey correspondent

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Levant

Thy neighbor’s trade

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

The economies of Syria and Lebanon have been closely intertwined since before they achieved independence from France in the 1940s. Now, with the two countries having recently opened embassies in one another’s capitals for the first time, an increasingly open and private-sector economy in Syria and a period of relative regional stability, there is now more potential than ever to take advantage of trade opportunities. These include not just goods, but services, expertise and labor – all of which illustrate Syria and Lebanon’s interdependent relationship.

Historical economic ties

Lebanon began its trade relationship with Syria in 1926 when it became an independent republic under French control. That same year, the Port of Beirut opened and Lebanon became Syria’s gateway to the world.

When Lebanon and Syria achieved independence from France in 1943 and 1946 respectively, the two countries continued a mutually beneficial economic relationship wherein Syria took advantage of Lebanon’s services, technical expertise and modern banking system, and Lebanon was able to make use of Syria’s labor force.

This complementary relationship was reinforced further in 1958. That year, Egypt and Syria merged to form the United Arab Republic, which led to the nationalization of Syria’s economy, leading many Syrian entrepreneurs to relocate to – or at least deposit their money in – Lebanon.

Lebanon’s civil war, from 1975 to 1990, marked the end of an era for the small eastern Mediterranean country’s reputation as the “Switzerland of the Middle East,” so-called because of its renowned top-quality banks in a stable climate. Still, during this time Syrians continued to use Lebanon’s banks because of their reliable services and secrecy policies.

Following the end of the war in 1990, Lebanon’s need for help with its reconstruction created a boom in need for Syrian labor. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s there were as many as a million Syrian laborers in Lebanon in any given period. At the same time, while wealthier Syrians waited for economic reform in their country, they used Lebanon’s renowned financial services and shopped at Beirut’s high-end retail stores to purchase items not available in Syria.

That all changed in February 2005 when Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was assassinated.  Syria was implicated in the assassination, but denies any involvement. Violent attacks on Syrian workers caused most of them to flee Lebanon, Syrians withdrew billions of dollars from Lebanese banks and Syrian shoppers abandoned their weekend trips to Beirut during a period of nationwide anti-Syrian sentiment.

The following years saw a thaw in Syrian-Lebanese political relations. Business has returned, but not at the same rate as before. Today, there are an estimated 300,000 Syrian workers in Lebanon, less than half of the pre-2005 level. Syrians who brought their business back home in 2005 have kept it there for the most part, mainly because luxury retailers and private banks in Syria have improved their quality and services to a level comparable to that of Lebanon.

With Syria’s ongoing economic opening and Lebanon beginning to warm-up politically to its next door neighbor, it appears that the two countries are in a good position to return to their traditionally mutually beneficial economic relationship.

“Even during the most difficult of times, trade relations slowed down, but then improved. This cannot stop. After… 2005, the only way left to go is up,” says Syrian political analyst Sami Moubayed.

Syria has traditionally resorted to trade pressure whenever relations with Lebanon have been tense

Politics and geography of trade

When it comes to trade between the two countries, Syria is at a definite political and geographic advantage. With a 375 km border with Syria that constitutes the only route for overland trade — the 79 km border to the south has been closed since 1948, when Israel became a state — Lebanon is dependent on Syria for its trade with most of the world. Transit through Syria represents 60 percent of Lebanon’s trade.

“Syria has traditionally resorted to trade pressure, whenever relations were [tense] between the two countries, to affect the political flow between Syria and Lebanon,” says Moubayed. “There are no other outlets from Lebanon, except the sea, or Israel, for ground trade. When pressure of this sort is applied, it certainly affects political events, always in Syria’s favor, however.”

In 1950, for example, Prime Minister Khaled al-Azm would shut the border, to pressure Lebanon into changing political dialogue, or positions, knowing that if the borders with Syria were sealed, its trade with the outside world would suffer.

More recently, in 2005 and 2006, Syria shut its borders with Lebanon, again to put political pressure on its smaller neighbor.

Still, goods usually reach their intended recipient somehow, regardless of political pressure.

“It’s a myth that the Syrian-Lebanese border is or can be closed to goods from the other side of the border,” says Samer Abboud, assistant professor in the department of political science at Susquehanna University in Pennsylvania. “The border is quite porous and will remain so even if there is full trade liberalization and improved transportation networks.”

 Nevertheless, currently there is some hope that better political relations will open the door for joint development projects.

“While private investment continues to grow in Syria, what’s missing are bilateral projects,” says Jihad Yazigi, editor of the Damascus-based economic bulletin, the Syria Report. “It’s not enough to open the borders if you don’t have strong government commitments. At the government level, there’s little coordination. Even in the West, there’s government involvement in bilateral projects. For big projects, private business can’t do much.”

For example, Yazigi suggests, “With daily power outages in Lebanon and Syria, we need more power plants.” Or, “Maybe the two countries could find a way to share water better.” He believes, “The two countries need to debate publicly.”

“Despite the obstacles – transport, financing, long border crossings – inter-Arab trade represents almost 20 percent of total Arab trade, when oil is factored out,” noted Abboud. “This is a very high figure and speaks to the already existing trade between countries that need to be supported through infrastructural and institutional developments.”

Getting goods across the border

At any time of the day or night, cars and trucks can be seen lined up at the official Syrian-Lebanese overland border crossings and in the Bekaa Valley, flare lights signal communication between smugglers.

No matter how cumbersome the process of trade between Lebanon and Syria, the two countries continue to meet the demand for one another’s products – be it at one of the three official border crossings, using the unofficial crossings or catering to the niche markets on either side of the border.

For Lebanese consumers, that often means clothing, agriculture, oil and other products that are less expensive in Syria.

But in the past several weeks this has been changing, with oil and some agriculture prices in Syria surpassing those of Lebanon – a sign of the times for both countries.

“Some prices of goods in Syria are higher than in Lebanon. The situation is completely different after 2000. Usually, Lebanon is the free market and Syria is the closed market. Now that is changing,” says Syrian economist Samir Aita.

Syrians are buying Lebanese goods, including everything from Portland cement, Lebanon’s biggest export to Syria, to Western products that can’t be found in Syria. There is a thriving black market of American products that are illegal due to the United States’ sanctions imposed on Syria.

Most of these items tend to be electronics, such as computer parts, which can be “re-exported” from Lebanon at an extra fee. “We (the Lebanese) don’t do this for free,” says Beirut-based Hussein Zeaiter, assistant professor of business and economics at the Lebanese American University.

“Illegal trade is probably higher than official trade,” estimates Abboud. “Illegal trade patterns have always existed between the two countries. While there is a host of trade in illegal goods – drugs and weapons – most of the actual trade is in basic products that are just taken across the border on a daily basis in cars and taxis and goes unreported or under-reported by officials. Export receipts are also a huge problem on the border.”

He adds that, “there have been few attempts to regulate it because the illegal trade functions almost as its own economy with powerful networks controlling large swaths of trade, or, on the micro-level, border officials being bribed to look the other way.” 

Illegal trade functions almost as its own economy, with powerful, large-scale networks

 Swapping labor for expertise

Throughout their history, Lebanon and Syria have been able to use the other’s workforce to their mutual advantage. Lebanon has benefited from Syria’s cheap laborers, who have been willing to do jobs that most Lebanese refuse to do, which in turn eases Syria’s high unemployment rate.  At the same time, Syria has benefited from Lebanon’s well-educated entrepreneurs and bankers who have helped Syrian private investors before and during the country’s economic opening.

“Lebanon has been an important place for services to Syrians,” notes Aita. “But in the last three to four years, Syria has been working to capacity.” As for Lebanon’s traditional role as Syria’s banker, he sees Syria beginning to hold its own in that sector.

“A lot of top management bankers have been coming from Lebanon to Syria,” Aita says. “But this is diminishing. Now, there is a lot of Syrians working at Lebanese banks.” Syria’s unprecedented growth rate last year of 6.5 percent and its own construction boom, combined with Lebanon’s continued anti-Syrian sentiment and a trend toward favoring Egyptian workers, has meant a continued steady decline in Syrian laborers in Lebanon.

“Mistakes on both sides meant that Syrians are no longer going to Beirut for shopping and services the way they did in the past,” Aita says. “And now there’s less need for Syrians to go to Lebanon.”

It does indeed seem that Syria is no longer closed economically.  However slowly, the dynamic is changing. Aita concludes by saying, “Lebanon’s role as Syria’s banking hub will disappear in three to four years. Both countries will have to rethink their roles toward themselves and each other.”

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