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Uncle Tehran wins again

by Gareth Smith May 3, 2008
written by Gareth Smith

With the dust settling on March’s Iranian parliament election, the poll suggests President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is likely to win a second term next year. Belying those who had again written him off as a lame duck, Ahmadinejad can take comfort in conservatives winning around 75% of the vote in an election where turn-out of 60% — up from 51% in 2004 — was hardly discouraged by the widespread disqualification of reformist candidates.

The president’s own supporters formed part of the United Fundamentalist Front, the largest conservative list, which was comfortably ahead of the rival Fundamentalist Front. Ahmadinejad, inexperienced when he came to office, learned from mistakes in local elections in December 2006, when supporters did poorly as a separate list, with little time to prepare for 207 constituencies.

What’s more, potential rivals to Ahmadinejad in 2009 have done little to raise their profile with the election. The exception is Ali Larijani, the former top security official and central figure in the Fundamentalist Front, who stormed to victory in the holy city of Qom. But the erudite voters of Qom hardly typify the wider Iranian electorate where Larijani’s lack of charisma counted more in his poor 2005 presidential showing — 4 million votes behind Ahmadinejad — than his lineage as the son and son-in-law of leading ayatollahs.

Neither did the reformists make much impact in parliamentary poll, although they increased their number of seats to around 50 or 60 (once the second round, on April 25, is included) from 39 in the outgoing parliament. Banned from around two-thirds of the seats, the two reformist parties — Mosharekat (Participation Front) and Etemad-e Melli (National Trust) — spent much of the campaign arguing amongst themselves.

Even in Tehran the reformists fared badly, despite reports of high turn-outs in upper-class areas that usually support them. Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel, the parliamentary speaker and a leading fundamentalist, topped the poll in the capital, and the leading 15 candidates in the city were all from the main fundamentalist list.

Gholam Hossein Karbashi, leader of the Kargozaran (Executives of Construction Party), a centrist party established by former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, blamed divisions for the reformists’ poor showing. “Despite all our efforts we were not able to motivate more than 30% of the electorate… the behavior of the reformists is partly to blame for the results — instead of uniting, they dispersed the vote [by failing to agree on a common list of candidates].”

Failure to run a common candidate in 2009 would probably doom the reformists to a result similar to 2005, when Mehdi Karrubi, Etemad-e Melli’s head and well-known as a former parliamentary leader, fell 600,000 votes short of the second-ballot run off in which Ahmadinejad defeated Rafsanjani.

Across the country, the election was fought mainly on economic and regional or local issues, not on foreign policy, where the government is seen as successful in showing the world that Iran is serious about the nuclear issue.

This is territory on which Ahmadinejad has appeared vulnerable, given that the official inflation rate is as high as 20%. But it is far from clear whether voters across the country hold the president responsible, as many areas have benefited from development schemes funded by the government from record oil receipts. Current spending for the new Iranian fiscal year will be up around 20% on last, from $253 billion to $304 billion.

Ahmadinejad’s message for the Iranian New Year outlined the themes that will dominate his re-election campaign. While acknowledging that his administration has not resolved all the economic problems of the country and conceding inflation was causing problems for “fellow Iranians,” the president promised the government had “an extensive economic development plan” to continue “massive industrial, scientific, research, economic, job-creating and cultural projects.”

He also issued a rallying cry for national resistance in the face of Western-led pressures over the nuclear programmed, emphasizing Iran was “in the middle of an all-out war,” and faced world recession as well as “the bad temper of some of our enemies” and inside the country “the mal-intent of some people.”

US conservatives — rallying around John McCain as presidential candidate — and their European allies have long seized on such rhetoric, especially over Israel, as justification for punishing Iran through UN and other sanctions. Hence, the prospect of Ahmadinejad’s re-election — and possible undermining of the argument that Iran should be engaged — is for them hardly unpalatable.

Continuing the international stand-off also seems to suit Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, who praised the turn-out in the parliamentary election as “legendary,” since voters had “prevailed over the wily enemy,” a reference to western accusations that the poll was unfair, the result being to help but keep the initiative with Ahmadinejad.

Gareth Smyth was the Financial Times Tehran correspondent and is now based in London.
 

 

May 3, 2008 0 comments
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Heeling the Arab media

by Peter Speetjens May 3, 2008
written by Peter Speetjens

“The revolution will not be televised,” Gil Scott Heron sang in his razor-sharp 1974 criticism of mainstream US media. His words have since traveled well beyond American borders and, if it is up to the regional powers that be, the revolution will indeed never be televised, nor will television ever be revolutionized.

In a remarkable show of solidarity, on February 12 of this year 22 Arab Ministers of Information signed the charter “Suggested Guidelines and Principles for Organizing Satellite TV in the Arab World.” The text stipulates, among other things, that satellite broadcasters are not to offend Arab leaders, national and religious symbols, nor to damage social harmony, national unity or public order. They should show respect for the Arab family structure and refrain from broadcasting anything which calls into question God and religion, while protecting Arab identity from the harmful effects of globalization.

The charter governs all existing and future agreements with TV stations. If broadcasters do not comply, the states party to the agreement can take punitive steps, varying from issuing a warning to confiscating material and equipment and, ultimately, canceling the station’s permit.

The text was immediately condemned by media observers as an attempt to enhance censorship. Reporters Without Borders defined it as “not only repressive but also retrograde… the Arab League information ministers have banded together to put pressure on news media that have been annoying them and escaping their control.”

Of the 22 countries represented at the meeting, only Qatar abstained from voting, which should not come as a surprise, as the charter is widely believed to particularly target two channels that have been a thorn in the side of many rulers: Lebanon-based Al-Manar and, especially, Qatar-based Al Jazeera.

Al Jazeera has been (temporarily) banned from many Arab countries, including Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, while Washington accuses the channel of fanning anti-

Americanism. In 2004, two British MPs leaked a secret memo in which George Bush suggested to Tony Blair to bomb the Al Jazeera premises. Israel joined the choir in March accusing Al Jazeera reporters of being pro-Hamas, banning them from interviewing government officials and entering Gaza.

The Arab information ministers stressed that the charter is of a non-binding nature and needs to be ratified by national authorities, which has so far only been done by the text’s mastermind, Egypt. The embattled Mubarak regime is determined to suppress anything that does not fit the pretty picture.

Thus, one newspaper editor was sentenced to six months in jail for questioning the Big Leader’s health, hundreds of activists and political opponents were imprisoned and the Britain-based al-Hiwar station on April 1 became the third channel to be banned from Nilesat.

Al-Hiwar founder Dr. Azzem Tamimi told media-watchdog Menassat that he was neither notified nor given an explanation. He believes, however, that the reason for pulling the plug were two programs that had been critical of human rights violations and media independence in the land of the Nile.

Of late, workers in Egypt’s all-important textile industry have gone on strike and, despite the overwhelming presence of Egyptian security forces, thousands of protesters regularly hit the streets, calling for the regime to step down. Yet if the state-run TV were to be believed, none of this ever took place.

Jordan has not yet ratified the charter, yet ended its first experiment with a private broadcaster before it had even started. After two years of preparations and numerous public announcements, ATV was finally to be launched on July 1, 2007. One day before D-Day, however, it received a letter from the semi-independent Audiovisual Commission (AVC), stating the launch was off, as the channel lacked a permit.

Now, call me suspicious, but that is weird. A private broadcaster starting a $30 million operation in a tightly controlled media landscape is not aware it lacked a permit? Even stranger is that none of Jordan’s state-owned newspapers or privately-run magazines covered the story. The only interviews with ATV Managing Director Mohannad Khatib I found were conducted with a portal called 7iber.com and… Al Jazeera.

Khatib claimed ATV had all necessary permits, yet admitted the channel had a financial dispute with the state-owned Jordan TV (JTV). Although mainly broadcasting via satellite, ATV had also leased one of JTV’s terrestrial channels for a staggering $3 million a year. JTV demanded payment for 2007, although ATV had not used the channel. In fact, it was JTV that had continued broadcasting. Interesting detail: the head of the AVC also heads JTV.

According to Khatib, the real reason for pulling the plug was that the Jordan authorities were becoming nervous about losing control over the message sent to the masses. While the rumor machine is in full swing, the truth will arguably never come out, as authorities and media continue to ignore the story as if it never happened. And thus the status quo prevails — ATV lacks a permit, JTV broadcasts despite deplorable ratings, and most Jordanians watch Al Jazeera, like the rest of the region.

Peter Speetjens is a Beirut-based journalist.

 

May 3, 2008 0 comments
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Progress, driven to insanity

by Norbert Schiller May 3, 2008
written by Norbert Schiller

The UAE, and particularly Dubai, are on a mission to prove to the world that anything they set their minds to can be achieved. Under the leadership of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the transformations happening in Dubai are so significant that some can even be seen from space.

Take for example Dubai’s coastline, which a few years ago was only 70 kilometers in length. Now, with the development of hundreds of artificial islands shaped like the world or a palm tree, Dubai will have hundreds of kilometers of sandy coastline at its disposal. And that is just the beginning. There are plans to create another palm island the size of the city of Paris, and if all goes well Dubai will transplant the universe to its shores. On another front, Dubai’s building boom is proceeding at such a break neck speed that 17% of the world’s cranes are at work in the emirate. A milestone was recently achieved when the Burj Dubai became the tallest skyscraper in the world, surpassing Chicago’s Sears Tower while still a ways to go before completion. Besides redefining the natural contours of the desert, Dubai has created snow where once only sand existed. If you want to put on winter clothes and ski in the middle of summer, where temperatures top 50 degrees Celsius, then the indoor Ski Dubai is the place to go.

Not to be outdone, the richest of the seven emirates, Abu Dhabi, also has its own agenda. Though not as grandiose as Dubai, Abu Dhabi wants to be seen more as a cultural hub. In 2012 it will have its own Louvre Museum, a state of the art complex that will showcase many of the original works currently housed in Paris. Beside the Louvre, Abu Dhabi will also have its own branch of New York’s prestigious Guggenheim Museum.

With all the successes there are bound to be a number of setbacks. On a global scale, according to the World Wildlife Fund, the UAE leaves the largest ecological per capita footprint in the world. This means that each of its residents uses up more resources than any other person in the world. On a more local level, there is another world record that the Emirates should not proud of. Per capita, the UAE has the highest number of road fatalities

When I was a junior high school student in America, a friend of mine, whose father was a policeman, used to pass around a magazine called California Highway Patrolman (CHP). It was the equivalent of a monthly trade magazine for law enforcers that showed detailed photographs of car accidents across California. Even though all the photographs were black and white, the pictures were nonetheless quite graphic. Most of the photos were taken by the police for their own records. The sight of all those horrific wrecks had a profound effect on me and most probably made me a little more careful when I was finally old enough to drive.

Today, the local press in the Emirates is beginning to look more like the highway patrolman magazine of my youth than a daily newspaper. Headlines like “UAE Road Accidents Claim 21 in 72 hours” or “Driver Burnt to Death after Truck Collision in Dubai” are just a sample of what the reader is hit up with every morning. And it’s not only limited to newsprint. Turn on the radio at any time of the day or night and you will hear between songs a stream of traffic updates, some sent in by motorists, telling you which roads to avoid because of accidents. “Avoid Arabian Ranches Roundabout because a bus has overturned” or “Traffic coming into Dubai on Sheikh Zayed Road is backed up all the way to Jebal Ali because of a multi car pile-up.”

The reason for the high death toll is simple: there are just too many vehicles on the roads and increasing at a phenomenal rate. In spite of the dozens of new four-lane bridges and freeways, traffic problems are still horrendous. It seems that no matter what the authorities do to ease the flow, they cannot keep ahead of the mounting vehicles on the road. Add to this the fact that many drivers do not obey the rules. They drive too fast, pass on the right hand side, use their cell phones, travel too closely behind the car in front and do not take precautions when the roads are flooded or visibility is impaired by fog. The numbers tell the rest of the story. In 2007, a total of 1,056 people were killed in traffic accidents, while 878 died in 2006 and 829 in 2005.

Recently, the Emirates broke one of its own records. On a foggy morning in March, 250 automobiles were involved in a massive accident which killed three and injured more than 300 on the Dubai-Abu Dhabi highway. Of the 250 cars, 60 caught fire and the scene looked more like a massive car bomb explosion somewhere in Iraq than a simple traffic accident. Beside the cars, there were 12 buses involved in the accident as well.

No matter how much the Emirates try to impress the rest of the world with their achievements, the bottom line is that life for those who have to battle on the roads every day is becoming intolerable. With billions of dollars in development projects expected in the coming years, and the millions who are bound to flood here in search of work, the Emirates should think of banning automobiles all together and using their resources to come up with an alternative way of transport that has yet to be discovered. This way they will truly dazzle the rest of the world with an innovation that will prove useful to humanity.

Norbert Schiller is a Dubai-based photo-journalist and writer.

 

May 3, 2008 0 comments
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InsuranceSpecial Report

Insurance across the region

by Executive Staff May 1, 2008
written by Executive Staff

The demographic and market changes throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have significantly widened the scope for regional insurance company operations. The changing demographics have allowed insurance to take on a role of social care that the family circle used to possess on a social scale.

Currently, the regional insurance industry is merely 1% of the GDP (compared to 5-7% in the US), highlighting the fact that the insurance sector in the MENA region is relatively untapped. However, insurance is now emerging as the main protector of wealth, family, health, motors, development projects, etc. across the region. Michael Bradford, senior reporter for Business Insurance Europe, believes that “there is a demand for insurance coverage in the region and local insurers are being called on to write much of it.”

Although the rates of insurance in the region are lowest among most emerging markets, the current growth rates in the regional insurance industry in recent years exceeded those of globally registered companies. Top members of the regional insurance industry hold varying opinions regarding the potential growth of the insurance market throughout the MENA region.

Rates of growth

It is difficult to substantially declare a particular figure for the growth rates of the entire MENA insurance industry, as there is a large deficit of available research and statistical figures. There seems to be no reason to suspect that the overall value of the MENA insurance industry exceeds $10 billion in premiums at present. In 2007, the global insurance-to-GDP rates were dominated by the UK (15%) and Korea (14%), with the Middle East hardly scratching the surface at 1% of the GDP.

However, the UAE insurance industry alone is more or less valued at $3.5 billion, representing 42% of all markets in the GCC. The 2006 Swiss Re Sigma Report valued other regional markets, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Lebanon, Morocco, and Egypt at $1.6 billion, $573 million, $656 million, $1.67 billion, and $840 million respectively.

A study conducted in October 2007 by EFG-Hermes noted “high GDP growth rates [in the UAE] and strong immigration driving insurance demand, but the rapid development of the mortgage market and strengthening of health insurance legislation is providing the uplift over the next couple of years.” EFG-Hermes also pointed out that in the Saudi insurance market, “the demand in the short term is driven by the creation of a competitive market relieving pressures and changes in motor and health insurance legislation also creating a steep change in demand.”

Growth rates for Takaful (Islamic insurance) are measured at approximately $2-3 billion globally in 2006 through 2007, with the GCC itself accounting for one-third of this growth. Whilst it is expected to increase at a 20% annual rate, it is important to note that Takaful, by comparison to traditional insurance, is still quite a small market.

EFG-Hermes defines three key factors that drive insurance sector growth in the region as: “the high GDP growth rate, the propensity for developing and newly developed countries to spend a disproportionate percentage of any increase in GDP on insurance, and the extremely low penetration rate of insurance products in many Middle Eastern countries.” Clearly there are “strong economic arguments which drive areas of insurance, such as motor, health, liability, and these are well understood by governments in the region.”

Management of growth

Growth management of the insurance industry is an operation of great complexity. Without a doubt, managing growth in such a large region comes with many challenges and stress. Most top members of the industry interviewed by Executive see that companies are managing their growth well, but with much room for improvement. Dr. Saleh Malaikah, CEO of Dubai-based SALAMA Insurance, believes that “companies in the region are coping well with the situation,” yet conceded that “one cannot say it is without challenges and issues.”

Further, Malaikah trusts that much of the growth of the insurance industry is credited to the establishment of so many new Takaful companies. Malaikah holds that “the Takaful industry has been the sole beneficiary of all the new insurance companies in the area,” as most of the recently established companies in the region are Takaful companies. Whilst growth management faces numerous challenges, other leading players also present positive opinions regarding the industry’s handling of growth.

Osama Abdeen, Vice President of AIG MEMSA, similarly stated that “there is a huge growth happening” in the insurance market, which is accredited to many factors such as infrastructure growth, increase of personal wealth, and mandatory insurance. He added that “the area is witnessing a huge growth in infrastructure and many other energy projects. Projects either already underway or currently started are estimated to be over $1 trillion in value,” and undoubtedly this “has given a boom to insurance requirements, since there is a lot of finance and lending requirements and FDI, [thus] increasing the demands for insurance.”

According to Abdeen, such compulsory requirements are “contributing to growth in this area.” AIG MEMSA has recognized such market increases and is working diligently on creating new market segments. Abdeen noted that there also seems to be a “new demand for travel insurance, personal accidents, and thus people are becoming more and more aware to purchase cover, so to protect their interests.”

Another aspect that Abdeen observed as a continuous contributor to the overall growth of the regional insurance industry is the increase of wealth; this “on its own has increased the demand for insurance requirements, whether on the commercial corporate side or on the personal side.” In order to properly stabilize the insurance market’s growth, Abdeen pointed to the need for a “multiple approach” to growth management. Even though, as he feels that “it is difficult to comment how each company is operating,” he thinks “there are some companies who are operating in focusing on one line, and not a multiple approach. In my opinion, a healthy growth should always be aligned, and achieve a mixed, but balanced portfolio.”

According to Gamil Osman, the Assistant General Manager of Kuwait-based National Takaful Insurance, “regional insurance companies are managing their growth properly,” in both the local and outside markets especially considering the “view of high competition in some insurance markets such as Kuwait, and the UAE which push some companies to expand outside their local markets.”

As the General Manager of Abu Dhabi National Takaful, Oussama Kaissi finds competition to be a key factor that is affecting the management of growth in the region, as “in a fast changing environment, leading and managing profitable growth is critical for the development of sustainable competitive advantage. Managements in the MENA region in general are increasingly facing pressure for short term results, slimmer profit margins, more international competition, a polarization of traditional markets, not enough leadership in strategy and change execution and more demanding boards to deliver ambitious business results. These issues vary in severity from one market to another and from one company to another while operating in the same market.”

Without proper leading managament and professionalism, growth management will constantly face challenges in the regional insurance industry, and thus long term results will also be affected. Kaissi’s view echoes the industry’s dire need for proper management in order to obtain desired growth management results throughout the insurance market.

More moderately speaking, Bradford thinks that “local commercial insurers appear to be taking a measured approach to growth. Most of these companies do not have sufficient capital to provide all the coverage the region needs, so they hand off a lot of the risk and much of it is going to foreign insurers in the international insurance market.” Yet, Bradford does acknowledge the growing demand for insurance coverage throughout the region and thus the increasing role that local insurance companies are stepping up to play.

Other top players are less optimistic. CEO of Daman Health Insurance (Abu Dhabi) Dr. Michael Bitzer strongly believes “too many insurance companies here act more like brokerage companies,” hence creating “a significant space for improvements in all areas, being it in how you sell, how you administer products, how you develop products.” In order to create room for growth stability, “in general, and most importantly, you need management teams with excellent leaders on top; that’s number one. The leadership team has to have expertise and have the willingness to learn.”

Further, Bitzer feels that “external entities from other industries and from the insurance industry must help to improve overall performance” of the regional companies in order to create “a little bit more enthusiasm and openness for change.” Ending on a rather optimistic note, believing that “there is improvement” at present, Bitzer, like his fellow industry leaders, forecasts that by working on key issues such as leadership, professionalism, human resources, information technology, etc. growth in the insurance industry can only be better managed in the future.

Insurance penetration in selected MENA / SE Asian countries as % of GDP (2006)

Source: Swiss Re Sigma Reports

General insurance by country

Source: Swiss Re , Sigma, No. 4/2007

Life insurance by country

Source: Swiss Re , Sigma, No. 4/2007

Effect of mandatory insurance on industry growth

Mandatory insurance is definitely creating a stepping-stone for regional sector growth. Since the implementation of mandatory health and motor insurance (for expatriates) in GCC countries such as Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, the growth of the regional insurance market is without a doubt being positively affected. Osman finds mandatory insurance as “one of the keys to helping the growth of the insurance industry.”

Abdeen also feels that increased implementation of mandatory insurance plays a significant role as its contribution has added to the increase of insurance business activity with companies. “Like you have seen in Saudi Arabia, medical coverage is becoming a requirement; and now it has started in Abu Dhabi. All this on its own, increases the demand for insurance” throughout the region, he said.

Kaissi similarly stated that, “without a doubt, if insurance was to be made mandatory, we will have a completely different outlook of the future of the industry in our region.”

Drawing a parallel to Kaissi’s view, Bitzer is “convinced that if consumers make good experience with mandatory insurance products, they will then buy other insurance products in the future.” Like some of his competitors, Bitzer mentioned that the “increase of awareness for health care and the increase of the whole region leads to higher market products insured, because these people understand that health insurance makes sense.”

According to Tal Nazer, CEO of BUPA Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Company in Saudi Arabia, health “insurance companies have done a very good job. [Especially] when you talk about a market in Saudi where in July 2006, the market size was around 1 million customers,” and is now at approximately 3.5 million customers.

Nazer credits this surge in customer base to “the enforcement of health insurance.” The health market is clearly being positively affected by compulsory enforcements.

Considering the sudden boom over a period of eighteen months, Nazer added, “insurance companies in general did quite well in absorbing the volume, without any hiccups in the growth of the market.” Nazer trusts that in terms of “absorbing the volume and working to improve the service levels for the customers,” the Saudi market is performing efficiently.

According to Nazer, “Saudi has done quite well for three major reasons. One is that they required all insurance companies to be publicly listed, [which] creates awareness among insurance companies at the interest to understand what these companies do. The second thing that also helps is the enforcement, which helped the growth of the industry. The third reason is the need for insurance,” which may be the same reason in other countries, and “people are looking to go into private hospitals, they want immediate access to treatment, and they do not want to be on waiting lists in public facilities.”

Further underlining mandatory insurance as a central contributor to insurance growth throughout the region, Nazer said that mandatory insurance “will definitely bring in more education on the insurance industry as a whole.”

Among the insurance executives, Kaissi stood out in cautiously warning that mandatory insurance is only secondary to increasing growth, when he noted that “we have to also be aware that awareness is the key for growth and not mandatory insurance. We have many insured [customers] that purchase insurance because they are forced to do it and not out of conviction. This does not help in cross selling our products and services.”

While most see the new trend of mandatory insurance as positive enforcement over a highly uninsured population, Kaissi justifiably feels that awareness of insurance is a more influential force on consumers to purchase insurance; without being told what insurance is all about, people are not going to go searching to ‘be in the know’.

Nazer agreed in that “because of the awareness that is happening,” due to enforcement by regulators in Saudi, “people are looking to get their insurance. So [awareness] definitely helps.” Malaikah also feels that “because of more activity in the media coverage about insurance, and because of medical and TPL (Third Party Liability) becoming compulsory in some of these markets increases the awareness, there is a possibility for horizontal expansion for these clients in other services of insurance.”

Malaikah mentioned the benefits of compulsory insurance. For example, he said, “if it becomes compulsory for me to take TPL or medical, I am now a beneficiary of any insurance service, so definitely I would think of covering other areas as I become educated about them.”

But Malaikah doubts that TPL and other insurance products will ever become compulsory in the industry. “The trend is going to continue in the GCC, but I am not sure if this is something that is going to be copied by countries outside the GCC that do not share the same demographics,” adds Malaikah.

The jury is still out on whether compulsory insurance will catch on in other countries throughout the MENA region or not.

Some industry leaders feel mandatory insurance has the potential to arise in other countries, while others are more wary. Many believe enforcing mandatory insurance throughout the region will not happen until the industry solves the main challenges it faces at present (such as growth management, human resource issues, etc.) and increases awareness, whilst those holding opposing opinions say mandatory insurance helps raise awareness and thus proliferates growth of the industry. Clearly, there is a circular argument of differing opinions present amongst industry leaders. Only time will tell whether mandatory insurance is the driver of awareness or if its potential depends on awareness.

By Asset Size: the largest insurance companies in the Middle East and North Africa and their net performance in last published year

Source: Zawya Investor

Major regional insurance companies listed on stock exchanges

Source: Zawya Investor

Growth potential

EFG-Hermes reported in 2007 that “other drivers of structural under-penetration are however very long term — such as the demographic structure and low tax environment — and consequently [concludes] that insurance penetration will not reach the levels achieved by countries with similar levels of GDP per capita.” Fortunately, EFG-Hermes predicts, “there are several years of strong growth ahead for both the insurance/Takaful industries in the region.”

Malaikah believes that “there’s a very big potential for growth of the insurance industry merely due to the [current] economic growth. Insurance as a service industry is benefiting from the general economic climate. With all the growth, however, comes stress.”

Abdeen is “very optimistic,” as his company anticipates and is working towards “great growth across all lines and more capabilities using technology to provide services.” AIG currently has plans in the works for expansion into “new territories and new countries so [to] provide [their] services and reach the customers more efficiently.” More specifically, the company is currently looking at North Africa as well as other Arab countries to expand in as it is on their “radar screen” and they are “very keen” as they see “a lot of advantage in doing so.”

Kaissi also presented a positive outlook for the industry’s growth potential, stating that “the MENA region insurance market is living its golden years,” and “as practitioners, [we] should leverage upon these positive conditions to bring about the required transformation and build a solid foundation for our industry.”

In line with the opinions of some of the insurance industry’s top players, journalist Bradford forecasts “continued growth” in the regional insurance industry as he believes “there [have] been so many factors converging in the region to stimulate the growth of the insurance market.” He trusts that, “with local economies booming and governments in places such as Bahrain working hard to encourage the population to protect their health and assets, insurers seem poised to grow substantially. Add to that the number of construction and infrastructure projects underway and planned in the region and you have a similar outlook for the commercial side.”

Osman feels “regional insurance companies are doing well,” and expects “more growth from Takaful and reTakaful companies” in the near future.

Wazen believes the Egyptian insurance market alone possesses “a big potential,” as the local population stands at 75 million, although he noted the lack of awareness in the country. If 20% of the Egyptian population purchased insurance, according to Wazen, “it would mean you gain 15 million customers.” Currently, the Egyptian market is “far below even 10%.”

The potential for health insurance also possesses great prospects in the region, and like the insurance industry overall, growth of the sub-sector is facing many obstacles to overcome. Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are two markets that have recently implemented compulsory health and motor insurance.

As far as the Saudi health insurance market is concerned, Nazer expects “to have the insurance market to double in the next year and a half to reach around 7 million customers,” seeing that the market is growing since regulators have enforced health insurance throughout the kingdom.

Bitzer, however, feels the current “growth of the health care sector in the UAE lags behind the growth of insurance,” as even although “people who were not able to afford the treatment before can now afford it with the health insurance card,” it is still leaving some private providers “flooded with patients.” Bitzer believes that time is of the essence and is greatly needed for private providers to be able to widen their capacity, but still holds “they are all on the right track.”

Overall it seems the prospects for growth in the MENA region is quite great, but its true potential is largely dependent on growth management, dealing with the major concerns of industry, and product availability throughout the region.

Over or under penetration relative to countries of similar GDP (FY 2006)

Source: Swiss Re, EFG-Hermes

May 1, 2008 0 comments
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InsuranceSpecial Report

Mergers & Acquisitions

by Farid Chedid May 1, 2008
written by Farid Chedid

While the region goes is growing tremendously, the insurance industry is facing a major challenge related to its profitability, but, if well managed, can put the industry at the forefront of financial services in the regional economy. Driving top line growth is relatively easy considering the economic boom — the challenge for shareholders and managers of insurance companies is driving the bottom line at the same time.

By its very nature an insurance policy is a contract relying on inverse pricing, meaning the selling price of the policy is set well before the final cost is known to the insurer. On this basis an aggressive growth strategy can destroy the bottom line rather than enhance it. So to grow, an insurer must push away price competition and differentiate itself through products, services, focus and market reach. The insurer must develop new products, improve service, cross-sell and enhance distribution networks, while also balancing increased efficiency with cost controls through better operations, enabling them to better manage claims, reach and retain customers, improve underwriting capabilities and strengthen reporting and monitoring. Human resources are scarce in the industry though, with a growing number of insurance companies and the structural under investment in talent throughout the region.

So how would an insurance company shareholder or would-be shareholder of a new company improve his return? They both can growing organically or merge and acquire. Would-be shareholders can set up a brand new company or acquire an existing operation. So the question is when and how. First, let us define the investor; is he coming from the insurance industry and looking to expand in the region or coming from outside the industry and looking to add insurance to the activities of the conglomerate. When the insurer is experienced in the insurance market and the country’s environment, an acquisition would be preferred, as it provides an advantage of faster entry, reducing the opportunity cost of wasting time while the market is growing rapidly. Governmental barriers must be considered — can the investor get a new license or are acquisitions encouraged. When the partners are from outside the industry an acquisition is difficult to handle because of the equity price the investor will pay when they don’t know whether this price is for real, considering the intrinsic valuation difficulties of the insurance business. Not any company is a good target considering poor corporate governance and enterprise risk management of some companies. More preferable for an outside investor is to go for a joint venture with a market player looking for entry into the specific territory. No doubt that joint ventures will be preferred if the industry is concentrated or when it is used as a mechanism to reduce transaction costs incurred when acquiring other firms.

Considering the above, why go through M&A. On the macro level, we are undergoing a change scope by moving from national markets to a regional market and soon enough a worldwide one. As competition increases companies will have to grow rapidly to stay competitive. But how can one grow aggressively when bottom line does not follow the top? Shareholders will have to think of M&A. During a growth period it is always the case that many new companies are founded however with the atomization of the market, the outlook for growth and survival of start-ups becomes negative. With new regulations in the region, companies will face heavy financing needs with reducing returns on equity due to the weaknesses in managing the competitive forces, which, in the end, will push major groups to move out of the industry.

On the micro level, companies that go through M&A are looking for a level of efficiency, productivity and profitability. The acquirer has to be first a very efficient and well managed company and once this level is reached the acquirer looks to improve his bottom line even further through economies of scale on the structure, IT, marketing, creation of products and risk management. They improve bargaining power in purchasing reinsurance and advertisement. The acquirer can benefit from synergies and complementarities in terms of markets, territories, products and distribution networks. The larger size can reduce the effect of economic downturns and softness in the insurance cycle. Finally improve margins by improving market share because of the leadership position.

When 50% of M&As around the world do not succeed, the insurance industry has to manage challenges of its own to make an M&A operation a success. Firstly the valuation challenges and listed among others, the long duration of liabilities, the art of loss reserving, the cyclical nature of the business, the impact of reinsurance, the impact of statutory accounting, regulations and finally interest rates and capital market fluctuations. The value of an insurance company is broken down into several distinct parts. The adjusted book value (ABV) must be assessed carefully considering on one hand the hidden capital gains and on the other the difficulty in assessing liabilities and reserves for outstanding claims, incurred but not reported claims etc. To the ABV must be added on one hand the best estimate of the embedded value, which is the value of in force business and on the other the value of future business and other items such as goodwill etc. Secondly, to run an insurance business you are running risks, underwriting and technical, related to the pricing of products and again reserving, credit risks related to the reinsurance, clients and counterparty recoverable, market risks related to investments and finally, operational risks. Thirdly, the biggest challenge of all is integration of the labor forces and the digestible assets.

The learning curve has its costs whether it is a joint venture, merger or acquisition but the most important thing to keep in mind is shareholder’s return.

Farid Chedid is managing director of Chedid

May 1, 2008 0 comments
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InsuranceSpecial Report

The future of individual life insurance in the Middle East

by Noel D’Mello May 1, 2008
written by Noel D’Mello

In my 16 years within the Middle East Life Insurance industry, I have never witnessed such tremendous growth in sales for individual life insurance products as in the last three years. The boom in oil prices as well as the growing awareness of the benefits of medium to long-term savings with protection has contributed to this phenomenon. Statistics suggest that this is just the tip of the iceberg as the Middle East has very low penetration rate for insurance products. To add to this only a small fraction of this is generated from individual life insurance products making the proposition for the future even brighter. So what is the scope of Individual Family Takaful products for the foreseeable future within the Middle East?

In my humble opinion the growth potential is phenomenal. The market is virtually untapped and though traditionally this has been the domain of foreign conventional players, today we see the advent of several Takaful companies. In the last two years all insurance companies launched within the GCC have been Takaful companies. The boom in the Islamic Banking sector has helped shift the preference of the consumer towards Shar’iah compliant products and we in the Takaful industry have benefited from this.

If the population of a country or region, as in the Middle East, is predominantly Muslim and ‘all things being equal’ it is but natural that our Muslim brethren would prefer a Shar’iah complaint Takaful solution over its conventional counterpart. The appeal of a Takaful proposition doesn’t only lie in our religious beliefs as has been demonstrated in Malaysia where a mixed religious consumer base is increasingly opting for Takaful solutions. This is because in a Takaful proposition the underwriting profits are shared with the participants, thus enhancing the product’s value added proposition. A Shar’iah compliant savings plan will also appeal to the ethical investor, as a survey conducted in the UK suggests that ethical investors are willing to forego up to 2% return rather than choose a non ethical fund — with Takaful they don’t have to forego anything.

So for a Takaful company, the challenge then, is getting all things equal or better. This is especially true for individual family Takaful products, which are of a long term nature where the litmus test is not only to offer competitively priced flexible products at the outset of the plan but to maintain a consistently high performance in returns and services throughout the life of the plan. It is possible to create such a proposition as has been demonstrated through the recent launch of SALAMA’s range of individual Family Takaful products that compete like for like with their conventional counterparts. The products are marketed to clients on a need base approach and offer the flexibility to tailor make the plan to suit every individuals requirement. The range of products offered caters to all needs of the individual throughout the life cycle of the client. At SALAMA, we believe that our products being ‘Shar’iah compliant’ should be the ‘icing on the cake’ for the client and not the cake itself.

So why aren’t there an abundance of these Takaful companies in the region? The answer is simple — family Takaful is a long term and complex business, which requires shareholders understanding to invest substantial capital for the long term. Many shareholders do understand this and commit their capital but then are faced with the next big challenge of recruiting professionals with the expertise to create products, systems and infrastructure tailor made to the local market. There is a dearth of skilled professionals in the industry, which makes it a daunting task for shareholders to get the right team in place. One thing going wrong could set back the company by several months, not to mention the associated costs with it. Once these are in place then the management team has to ensure that ongoing services are of a superior quality with quick turnaround times and minimal documentation. Additionally, Takaful companies need to be rated by companies such as Standard and Poor and AM Best to gain credibility in the eyes of the consumer and this is increasingly difficult for a startup company, as most Takaful companies are.

To set up a successful family Takaful company, with the whole range of products to cover all aspects of an individual’s needs, takes anywhere between six months to a year. There have been several Takaful companies who have entered the fray and it is just a matter of time before they are ready to launch their Takaful products into the market. This will bring greater awareness to the consumer of the benefits of choosing Takaful solutions, which will in turn boost the sales figures of all Takaful companies alike. As mentioned, the individual life insurance market is virtually untapped so there is room for growth for both conventional insurance companies as well as Takaful companies, however I believe that the growth potential for Takaful is far greater because of the religious demography of the region and the added value that a Takaful proposition brings to the client.

Noel D’Mello Assistant General Manager- Head of family Takaful SALAMA-Islamic Arab Insurance Company Dubai, UAE

May 1, 2008 0 comments
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InsuranceSpecial Report

What is Takaful? Some Sharia Fundamentals

by Nada Abdelsater-Abusamra May 1, 2008
written by Nada Abdelsater-Abusamra

Takaful is NOT an Islamic contract or structure in itself, but rather the result of the combination of two or more Islamic contracts, and in general is the combination of a tabaru’ (donation) operation with one or more Islamic contracts like Wakalah or Mudarabah.

For years the insurance concept was prohibited by Islamic scholars, until 1985, when the Grand Council of Islamic Scholars in Makkah, based on the concept of a cooperative tabaru’ and cooperation, approved the Takaful system as an alternative to conventional insurance. However, the exact method and operation of Takaful was left to Islamic scholars and insurers to resolve develop and implement.

The word “takaful” originates from the Arabic word kafalah, bearing the reciprocal dimension of “guaranteeing each other” or “joint guarantee”.

The concept of “Islamic compliant insurance” dates back to some 1,400 years ago when the Muhajirun of Mecca and the Ansar of Medina would agree to contribute to a fund before starting long voyages, where often they incurred huge losses, misfortunes or robberies along the way. This “common fund” would be kept with one of the group members, and would be used to compensate any member who suffered mishaps during the journey.

General Takaful, or sharia-compliant, life insurance has been traced to another Muslim practice of pooling contributions from a group of people to assist others in need.

Simply put, today Takaful is the sharia-compliant alternative to conventional insurance. But what’s wrong with conventional insurance and why does it warrant a sharia alternative?

Is it the prohibition of riba (interest)? Not really, because riba is not inherent to the insurance business — and one may structure conventional insurance models without interest bearing investments.

Is it the prohibition of gambling (maysar)? But here again, gambling is not inherent to the insurance business. Gambling occurs only if the insurance results in a financial gain to the insured in excess of compensation of damages.

Is it the prohibition of risk? This another misconception. In fact, risk is not prohibited by sharia. On the contrary, risk is intrinsic and inherent to the very concept of halal business and profit. According to sharia principles, reward must be accompanied by risk. But sharia distinguishes between market risk and credit risk. While credit risk alone is not permissible, market risk is a requirement for any halal benefit. This is why for example investment in stock is permissible (market risk) while investment in bonds is not (credit risk).

So what is the major reason for the prohibition of insurance under sharia? This lies in the “gharar” (uncertainty) component of the insurance contract. “Uncertainty” is different from “risk.” Contracts that provide for “uncertain” obligations are not permitted. In conventional insurance, the service offered by the insurer (indemnification of a loss) may or may not be forthcoming depending on whether the loss occurs or doesn’t occur. Therefore, the obligation of the insurer lacks the component of “certainty” and is hence prohibited.  In other terms, whilst market risk is legitimate, the “transfer” of such risk in return for a fee without transfer of the corresponding reward, is not permitted under sharia principles.

So how does sharia overcome these prohibitions? We said that premium payment in return for “uncertain” services is not allowed, but payment of a participation as a gratuitous “donation” for social well being is permitted under sharia.

Under Takaful, premium is not a price for the coverage. Premium is a contribution in a mutual scheme or mutual fund which aim is to mutually guarantee each other against an uncertain event. Whilst in conventional insurance, the insured is a customer of the insurance company, in takaful the insured is both the customer and the principal. Part of the premium goes as an irrecoverable donation to cover any potential losses of any of the participants, and the other part of the premium is invested in sharia compliant investments.

There are two major types of Takaful namely the Wakalah model and the Mudaraba model. In addition, the concept of “waqf” is sometimes used to structure takaful operations.

The Wakalah model is mostly used in the Middle East while Malaysian companies commonly use the Mudaraba model.

Regardless of the chosen model, Takaful is similar to a mutual insurance where the purpose is to share risk between members, thus making it more manageable for each of them. A common fund is created (the Takaful Fund). This represents a percentage of each of the participant’s policy holders payment. The Takaful Fund is owned by the participants (the contributors) and is managed by an operating company the “Takaful Operator” (TO).

One of the most significant challenges of the Takaful industry is the re-Takaful or sharia-compliant reinsurance. This industry is at the early stages of its development and most Takaful companies undertake re-insurance with conventional reinsurers. Finally, it is worth mentioning that some sharia scholars defend the position whereby the insurance business does not violate sharia when the premium is calculated on the basis of scientific statistical computations, given that such scientific calculations remove the component of “gharar,” provided of course that other sharia aspects are complied with. However, this remains an endless argumentation that is arguably unproductive. The Takaful market is real and has incredible growth potential. It is certainly more productive to focus on how to develop and move the Takaful industry forward rather than concentrating on endless theoretical and theological debates.

Nada Abdelsater-Abusamra is an attorney at law in the courts of New York and Beirut. Corporate and advisor to regulators and banks in Islamic finance.

May 1, 2008 0 comments
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InsuranceSpecial Report

Staking claims in the Middle East

by Executive Staff May 1, 2008
written by Executive Staff

When the Middle Eastern crème de la crème of insurance professionals gathered in Bahrain earlier this year for the biennial convention of the regional industry body, the General Arab Insurance Federation (GAIF), the chosen topic was convergence of the industry on a regional level. No topic could have been timelier for an industry that by wide consensus is entering a period where it has the best chances ever to accomplish its long overdue mandate of becoming a real wheel in the regional economy. 

The performance of insurance companies across the Middle East region in recent years was undeniably, and for the first time ever, marked by significant growth rates in gross premiums and net profits. In comparison to the late 1990s, less than a decade ago, the premiums collected by leading insurance companies in the Gulf region have multiplied: some companies threefold, some fivefold, and some, close to tenfold.

Regions biggest continue growing

These meteoric risers were not upstart companies with extraordinary growth rates in the early days of doing business — these growth rates were achieved by insurers that were among the region’s largest providers of insurance services and the most sophisticated and developed players in the market. To name one example, Oman Insurance, the UAE’s prominent private sector insurer, grew its gross premiums from $44 million in 1999 to more than $373 million in 2007.

However, exponential growth in premiums aside, the Middle East still trails globally in the contribution and the role of insurance in local economies. Countries like Syria and Saudi Arabia rank among the least insured nations in the world, as measured by the share of GDP invested in insurance (insurance penetration). Their expenditure on general insurance is much less than 1% of GDP and their expenditure on life and wealth creation policies — the bigger business in the global insurance industry — is barely measurable. 

Secondly, all MENA economies greatly need to grow their insurance sector as their insurance penetration rates lag behind global and emerging markets averages. The growth and the concentration of insurance power in Arab countries entering the 21st century has been dichotomous, and quite unlike any program of regional convergence.

In the Levant markets, the Syrian opening to private sector insurance  is still in its early stages while the long established Lebanese insurance sector has struggled with the ups and downs the national economy experienced mainly because of security and political challenges.

In Jordan, the high number of listed insurance providers betrays the sector’s fragmentation, whereas Egypt has just seen the formation of one state-backed mega-provider through the merger of Misr Insurance and Al Chark into an entity with 75% domestic market share and the largest asset base of all insurers in the MENA. Nonetheless, Egypt affords much less insurance than neighboring Mediterraneancountries. 

The hype of new growth and  catchy annual premiums increases have thus been reserved largely for the booming petro-producing countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Among the Gulf economies, the largest premiums are in the United Arab Emirates, where the insurance industry recently claimed to have underwritten more than 40% of the GCC’s combined premiums in 2007.

Although the UAE and Qatar  grew their annual per capita expenditure on insurance (insurance density), the increases is relative to their larger economic expansion where nominal GDP growth was spurred by the realm’s ample blessings of liquidity and even more liquidity. This has curbed the role of insurance development in the past five years when measured relative to the expansion of GCC economies generally.

At a reported total premiums volume of $3.5 billion in 2007 — a $700 million increase over 2006, or 25% — the share of insurance in UAE GDP shy of 2%. At the end of the 1990s, the UAE had an insurance density of 1.4%, according to by multinational reinsurer, Swiss Re.

In the GCC, the impression is not one of impeccable growth. While underwriting performance in the form of gross premiums was sensational for some companies, the rates of ceding business to reinsurance firms were surprisingly high.

With regulations on financial reporting and compliance with internationally respected accounting standards slowly coming into effect, the acceptance of risk and the role of underwriting profits of insurance providers have not been very transparent across the region. But it is obvious from the profit developments of the past two years that insurance companies have been hit by their dependence on investment income from fickle regional financial markets.

Oil bubble

2006 was a correction year in the GCC stock markets that started with the rise in oil revenues from 2002/03. 2006 insurance company balance sheets were clearly negative  and, by contrast positive in 2007. With 2008’s first-quarter results not yet on the table, analytics of 2007 reflected the bourse trends of 2007-06.

Zawya’s insurance industry research shows movement in gross premiums of listed insurers last year in line with the overall positive market for premiums. Of the UAE’s 23 insurers, 20 released gross and net premiums figures indicative of a 31.8 % average increase, with Abu Dhabi based providers coming in ahead of their Dubai peers.

In Qatar, gross premiums growth of the four listed conventional insurers averaged 28.5%, situating the DSM insurers behind the ADSM and ahead of the DFM players. This underscores that the UAE and Qatar are currently leading insurance growth in the GCC, outpacing Kuwait and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia is in a special situation of new company formations in 2007 where performance results are not yet available. A noted exception is the former monopoly state insurer, Tawuniya, which reported a drop in 2008 first-quarter earnings because of weaker investment income. 

The listed Kuwaiti insurers reported a mixed development in gross premiums where increases by three firms were juxtaposed with contractions by two companies for a meager average growth of 0.2%. In Manama, three out of four firms showed single-digit gross premiums growth and the average was boosted to 17.8% only because of a 50% jump in premiums at ARIG.

For gauging of meaningful industry trends in the markets with less than ten reporting companies apiece, the data blankets for the Kuwaiti, Bahrain, and Qatari insurance sectors are still rather flimsy. However, when eyeing GCC financial markets wholesale, notable correlations are undeniable when drawing comparisons between net profits and underwriting developments.

All but one insurance firm with posted results in the UAE in 2007 could improve their net profits over the preceding year. The growth in net profits for two thirds of the companies exceeded their growth rates in both gross and net premiums, and most of the 15 companies in this group achieved net profit growth that was a multiple of their premiums growth, gross or net. Nine companies which had shown net losses, a black zero, or profits of maximum $3 million in 2006 jumped back into positive territory with 2007 net profits that ranged from $11 million to $33 million.

While underwriting growth was significant and exceeded 50% for three listed UAE insurers, it paled against the profits derived from investments. Median year-on-year profit growth for UAE insurance firms in 2007 was 73%, and profit increases for 70% of firms ranged above 40%. Only one insurer filed negative results development: Islamic provider SALAMA whose profits contracted by 15%.

Contrasting to the strong profit gains which companies reported from 2006 to 2007 is a comparison of profit trends over two years. Between 2005 and 2007, UAE insurers achieved only in very few cases two subsequent years of profits improvement. Most firms in the industry saw their profits smashed in 2006 due to the intense correction of regional securities markets and 2007 was a year of partial recovery from profit evaporations. On the balance, aggregate profits reported by the UAE’s listed insurance companies in 2005 were significantly higher than profits in either 2006 or 2007.    

While investment income is crucial for the insurance sector anywhere, the vast dependency on stock market gains by regional insurance firms, in combination with their comparison to the region’s banks small size, and the not quite so sensational underwriting growth in relation to GDP and inflation developments create an impression of an insurance industry that is still in the process of covering all its bases, an industry which probably is not quite yet in a position of resting on laurels as catalyst of safeguarding Middle Eastern societies. Despite the industry’s strong steps forward, these laurels are yet to be earned. 

May 1, 2008 0 comments
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Banking & Finance

Money Matters by BLOMINVEST Bank

by Executive Staff May 1, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Regional stock market indices

Regional currency rates

Abu Dhabi Investment House Launches $7B Porta Moda Fashion Concept

Abu Dhabi Investment House (ADIH) signed memorandum of understandings to develop Porta Moda cities in Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Morocco, Tunisia and India. Porta Moda cities will comprise of retail districts offering luxury brands in fashion, jewellery and interior design fields, in addition to residential and leisure areas. Emirates International Properties will develop Porta Moda Abu Dhabi and Gulf Finance House will establish relevant cities in Morocco and Tunisia. Qatar and India entertainment cities will develop their own Porta Moda districts. ADIH recently signed a $1.5B agreement with Dubai based Al Futtaim Group to develop 50% of Qatar entertainment city.

Morocco to Build High Speed Rail Link by 2013

The Moroccan state rail authority, Office National des Chemins de Fer (ONCF) has announced the building of a high-speed rail link between Tangiers and Casablanca. The new rail line that will open by 2013 will carry 8 million passengers a year. The project will cost $2.7B and reduce the journey time between the two cities from six hours to two. The project also includes the delivery of 18 high-speed train wagons. The new line is part of a wider plan to link all Moroccan major cities through a high-speed rail network. ONCF is also building a $755M 43km rail infrastructure to link Tangier with the new Tangier-Mediterranean port development.

Bahrain undergoes robust growth in 2008

According to the Economist, Bahrain is expected to have continuing GDP growth, mainly driven by higher oil prices accompanied with the regional economic boom. Furthermore, the economist forecasts that domestic demand is expected to rise with increasing public spending and employment especially as banking, aluminium output and tourism are expanding with the new construction projects. Despite this strong growth, the Economist forecasts that growth levels will go from 7% in 2008 to 5.1% in 2012, mainly due to the possible decline in oil prices and regional demand. Contrary to other regional countries, Bahrain’s GDP is largely dependant on the financial sector rather than oil production. However, with the growing competition in this field from Saudi Arabia and Dubai, Bahrain is expected to slack behind, leading to a decreasing growth rate. The Economist expects oil prices to remain volatile without decreasing below $66/barrel. Regional boom will result in higher domestic demand and money supply growth, which in turn will lead to an increase in consumer price inflation to 5% as compared to 4.1% in 2007. Finally, the Economist forecasts large current account surpluses in 2008-2009 due to high oil prices. The trade surplus is expected to widen to $3.8B in 2008 and then decline to $3B in 2009.

May 1, 2008 0 comments
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MENA

Christopher Gasson

by Executive Staff May 1, 2008
written by Executive Staff

The Oxford-based monthly Global Water Intelligence provides coverage and analysis of the world’s water markets. It has a strong emphasis on desalination and prides itself on having access to exclusive and little-known industry developments. Executive talked to its publisher Christopher Gasson about what’s in store for H2O’s future.

E Global warming appears to be playing a role in the world’s desertification. Is it correct to assume that global warming will only increase pressure on the world’s fresh water resources?

Not necessarily. Global warming has a very complicated effect. Virtually none of the models for global warming give us a consistent view of where precipitation will move. It is predicted that by end of the century there will be 14% more moisture in the atmosphere. And that has to fall somewhere. At the moment, people are interpreting this by saying that we are going to see more intense flood events and more droughts. If that occurs, it is terrible for those government agencies planning for water. On the one hand, they have to spend a bunch of money on flood defenses and on the other hand, they have to spend money to protect against droughts. Therefore, it is worse news than if things were just likely to get drier.

In fact, it is wrong to say global warming is the main cause of water scarcity. The main cause of water scarcity is too many people needing too much water in places with few natural resources.

E Can we point to Abu Dhabi and Dubai as examples of these types of places?

Exactly. Water shortages in the Gulf have nothing to do with global warming. It is entirely to do with the very rapid growth in population. Over the next few decades, Saudi Arabia is going to go from a population of 25 million to a population of 40 million, but their natural water resources are not going to increase. In fact, their natural water resources are likely to decrease because in dry countries the population is dependent on mining non-renewable ground water.

Across the Gulf the natural supplies of water are falling and demand is rising. In a few of these countries the natural life of some of the main desalination plants is coming to an end. That is particularly true in Saudi Arabia, where some capacity is going to come off-line. This means we will need to have a huge boost in desalination to sustain the population.

E But is this necessarily the case? For example, Saudi Arabia plans to phase out its production of wheat in order to lighten the load on its water resources. Will this negate the need for a huge boost in desalination?

I think the best they can hope for is a standstill in their agricultural water use. Agriculture in Saudi Arabia grew very quickly and it continues to grow, from wheat to massive dairy farms. I do not know how easy it will be to take away those water allocations to farmers without them saying, ‘Hold on, this is our water. You can’t take it from us’.

There is a very great water shortage in Saudi Arabia. Right now in Jeddah you are lucky if you get water every other day and in summer the situation will get worse.

E Saudi Arabia has just launched their National Water Company. What is the idea behind this project?

Essentially, they are incorporating the ministry, going for a more private sector model. They are contracting out the water management of Riyadh to Veolia, that of Jeddah to Suez, and other cities will go to other companies. The National Water Company acts as an asset-owning body, while the private companies operate the assets.

E Is this something we are going to see in other Arab countries as well?

It is. I think that we will see similar privatization in Egypt and Libya. It is already happening in Algeria and Morocco. We will also see it in Abu Dhabi and Oman. The two places in the Gulf that have not been keen on this model are Dubai and Kuwait. Dubai is developing along the private concession model and it has not used the private sector model to finance its water desalination program.

In general, the Middle East has decided that only the private sector can deliver the efficiency that they need. The state has failed for years in many of these countries.

E What are these private companies, for example Veolia, doing right?

Veolia has a thermal technology that has a significant cost advantage over the main thermal desalination methods. In a traditional Multi-Stage Flash (MSF) desalination plant, one needs a lot of electricity to pump water around the system, using more than Veolia’s Multiple Effect Distillation (MED) process. Both of them use the same amount of steam to make the same amount of water, but MSF uses a lot more energy than MED.

Previously, this did not matter because MSF had economies of scale, which meant it was used in the largest plants. This was not true for MED — the largest plants of this type had been in the region of only 40,000 cubic meters a day. What Veolia has done, through SIDEM [a subsidiary], is find a way to deliver economies of scale with MED up to 800,000 cubic meters a day. This is why they have been successful. But the MSF people aren’t entirely out of the picture. I think Fisia [Italimpianti] won more contracts last year than SIDEM.

E So is it accurate to say that Veolia is the world’s largest plant supplier of desalinated water?

It depends on the time scale. Veolia has won three major projects recently. However, Doosan has built the most capacity in the last five years. It was really SIDEM’s transformational year of 2006 that has raised their profile. In that year, they won two major projects, but that does not mean the others no longer matter.

The next big deal is the Ras al-Zour one million cubic meter a day project in Saudi Arabia. It is the biggest desalination plant ever considered and bids will be submitted on May 5.

For this tender we will see Veolia, with their MED technology, teaming up with Suez. Then Fisia will team up with GE to pitch a combined MSF and RO (Reverse Osmosis) facility. Finally, we believe that Doosan will bid on its own and that it will offer straight MSF technology.

E Who do you think is going to win the tender?

 It is going to be very interesting. We have the three technologies competing against each other and we will see which one comes out on top. But right now, it is impossible to tell who will win.

E Some pundits say that due to scarcity, water will become the new oil in the Middle East. Countries will go to war over this resource.

Do you agree with that?

Water is obviously a huge issue in the Levant. Some people say the Six-Day War was fought over water. A big portion of Jordan’s water was annexed in that war. To replace that with desalination is quite difficult because they only have a tiny bit of coastline at Aqaba in which to put a desalination plant. In fact, the Jordanians are getting desperate. They now have the Diseh-Amman water conveyer. They are spending a large amount of money to pump, treat and send low grade, non-renewable water to Amman. That water is only going to be there for about thirty years, and then what will they do?

The Jordanian situation is bad. The problem with desalination is that you have to have a significant population by the coast.

I think the country that is closest to the edge is Yemen. They have one of the fastest growing populations in the world, they have no water and no money. Moreover, their capital city happens to be at a very high altitude. There is just no solution. People talk about them evacuating the capital.

In the Gulf, though, there is a well-established way of getting water, desalination. If a country in the Gulf was offered the choice between building a new desalination plant or going to war, most of them would choose to build a new desalination plant.

In the end, conflict over water will likely be limited to those countries with little money and no real opportunity for desalination.

May 1, 2008 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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