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Consumer Society

GCC – New direction

by Executive Staff June 1, 2007
written by Executive Staff

The Middle East is cash heavy and banks aspire to modifythis reality, by weaning more and more of their customersfrom carrying paper money. Electronic cash is bettermanageable and more profitable for financial institutionsand thus the credit card industry is expanding into cardswhich they hope will appeal to regional customers –including a new variety of sharia-compliant credit cards.

As with all Islamic banking products, plastic is relativelyrecent. A Malaysian bank, AmBank, started foraying intoelectronic payments around 2001 when it launched its AlTaslif card in December of that year.

Hot on the heels of their Malaysian counterparts, banksoffering sharia-compliant financing options in the Gulf havebeen rolling out “Islamic credit cards” at an increasingpace since 2002.

Prior to the unveiling of Bahrain-based ABC Islamic Bank’sAl Buraq card in 2002, plastic money adhering to shariaprinciples available in the GCC was limited to debit cards.The cards were designed for use when traveling and backed byfunds in customers’ current or savings accounts, settled atthe end of every month and not allowing for spending beyondthe amount of actual cash a customer had.

Debit still rules over credit

Although credit card companies laud the Middle East as theworld’s fastest growing market for payment cards, the creditcard penetration in the region is relatively low and in mostcountries, debit cards are the rule. The sole exception isthe UAE whose residents account for one-third of credit cardholders in the region comprising the Middle East andPakistan, a study by MasterCard said.

Sharia-compliant banks had to overcome a number of hurdlesin developing cards that would appeal to their clientele.Islamic jurists consider standard credit cards haraam(sinful) for a variety of reasons. Charging interest orpaying interest is forbidden because it treats money as acommodity instead of an essentially valueless means forexchange. So the card issuers cannot charge interest, orribah, payments on cards whose balance is not paid in fullat the end of the month.

Furthermore, conventional credit cards often come withvariable interest rates. The amount one has to pay canfluctuate so when signing a credit card contract, one isignorant of the exact amount one will have to pay in a givenmonth. This uncertainty, or gharar, is also forbidden.

Finally, insurance policies linked to standard creditcards are, along with all conventional insurance, generallyconsidered forbidden because the concept itself isconsidered a form of gambling, or maysir. One can eitherbenefit from insurance when it covers insured losses or loseall they money paid in premiums if the need to cash in neverarises.

In order to tap into the market of people who want thebenefits of a credit card while still observing religiouslaw, Gulf banks have employed a variety of sharia-compliant finance concepts to enter the credit card arena.By charging different fixed fees the banks are able to stillturn a profit.

Based on the concept of ijarah, or lease or servicecharge, the UAE’s Emirates Islamic Bank, or EIB, has cardsthat let customers spend beyond their total cash bytechnically purchasing the item for them. The bank explainson its website that the card falls under the principle ofijarah by charging a yearly fee for the service of lettingcustomers hold an outstanding balance on the card. The fees,which in one example amount to $325 for a card with a $2,200(AED8,000) limit, can be paid quarterly.

The basic repayment structure is the same among thedifferent cards. Like a conventional card, users purchasegoods with the card, receive a statement of what they owe atthe end of the month and can opt to pay it all or pay aportion. The minimum due monthly is either a percentage ofthe amount owed – usually between five and 10% – or a fixedamount (AED100 for the EIB card in our example).

New concept

Saudi Arabia’s Samba financial group, another strongregional bank that has taken the Islamic business to heart,introduced its Al Khair card in 2003 under the tawaroqconcept. Under this concept, a cardholder who does not wantto pay the full balance on the card at the end of the monthwill agree to a tawaroq transaction in which the bankpurchases an asset at the cardholder’s expense. The bankresells the asset to a third party and the cardholder paysthe bank in set monthly installments.

Typically with tawaroq transactions, “the asset purchasedand resold is managed by the bank’s core banking system,”said a report released in April on sharia-compliant creditcards by the financial services company BPC Group. The assetcosts more than the amount due.

It sounds complicated and financing of purchases throughsharia-compliant credit cards can probably not be consideredlow-cost, although no independent statistics on averagecosts and consumer satisfaction with the cards in the youngindustry have been published.

There are also no numbers on the actual size of theIslamic credit card industry yet, but a growing number ofbanks is venturing this year into this segment, includingnot only regional banks but also multinational ones.

After First Gulf Bank started offering a sharia-compliant credit card under the name, Makkah Card, thisspring, it said that it “recorded high demand” fromcustomers for the product, which the bank called theregion’s first standalone, unsecured Islamic credit card.

In April, London’s Standard Chartered Bank threw its hatinto the Islamic finance ring by launching sharia-compliant services under the name saadiq, or truthful –including a fee-based card.

This incarnation of the cash-less payment system relies onthe service fee concept of ujrah. Under this system, insteadof paying an annual fee for the card, users pay a fee forthe use of borrowed money.

If a customer does not pay the full amount owed at the endof a month, the remainder goes into an account the bankestablishes. The remaining money is paid back monthly with aminimum payment due each month. Standard Chartered turns aprofit by charging a monthly maintenance fee each monthprovided there is money in the account.

Adding a twist, Saudi Arabia’s National Commercial Bankjust launched the first Titanium Islamic MasterCard, whichcomes with a cash-back program, cannot be used forun-Islamic purchases, and, according to one newspaperreport, invests a customer’s unpaid balance in commoditieseach month, keeping the profit.

June 1, 2007 0 comments
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By Invitation

Implementing Paris III: what it takes

by Mounir Rached June 1, 2007
written by Mounir Rached

As part of Paris III, the Lebanese government has promisedto embark on a number of fiscal reforms addressing primarilythe revenue side “in view of the relatively limited scopefor further cuts in public spending.”

The objective of these reforms is set in paragraph 92 of theParis III reform agenda. It aims at minimizing distortionsand enhancing equity and fairness in the distribution of thetax system.

Can these reforms achieve their objective?

Lebanon’s revenue structure relies heavily on indirecttaxes. Taxes on income and profits constitute only 14.5% oftotal revenues and 3.3% of GDP; while indirect taxes (mostlyVAT and customs) contribute 46% of the total. In spite ofexemptions, indirect taxes are, as generally recognized,regressive.

To recall, the most important tax measure taken recently wasthe introduction of a one rate and one stage value added tax(VAT) in 2002 that resembles more a sales tax. This isregressive tax in spite of exempting basic items andservices. It was a step forward to shore up revenue anddiversify its base. Its impact was visible and raised taxrevenue to a record 15% of GDP. However, it magnified equitydistortions as it was not accompanied by other tax reformsto enhance equity. Customs top rate, for instance, remainsat 90%, and customs provide 25% of tax revenue.

Making adjustments

Will the proposed new measures, as part of Paris III,impact significantly on revenues and its structure? The taxadjustments include VAT increase to 12% in 2008 and to 15%in 2010, and the tax on interest income to 7% in 2008.

These two adjustments, assuming a neutral effect oncapital and on the consumption pattern, could raise taxrevenue by 1.5%, accruing mostly from VAT. Raising taxrevenue to GDP to the desired objective of 18% by 2011 hasto be generated by administrative measures. These include:activating the large tax payer’s office (LTO), fullystaffing the Tax Roll department – a data base department,expanding the withheld tax registration, and adopting a TaxProcedure Code. A Global Income Tax without rate change isplanned for 2008. These measures are expected to raiserevenue by another 1.5% of GDP.

Direct tax collection on income (enterprise and wagetaxes) will, after all, remain very low at 4% of GDP by 2011compared to an unweighted average statutory rate of 10%.This implies the presence of either extensive tax evasionand/ or ineffectiveness in collection. An endemic problem inLebanon, which is not being addressed genuinely by any ofthe proposed measures except in the enhancement of coverageby tax withholding.

The revenue structure will continue to remain nearlystagnant, and to rely heavily on indirect taxes (50% oftotal revenue) and non-tax revenue (32%); without enhancingequity. A comparison of before and after tax income (basedon the family income distribution study CDS, 1998) showedthe ineffectiveness of the pre-1999 structure (a moreprogressive tax) on equity enhancement. The after tax incomeshare of the tranche with the lowest income (6%) increasedto 1.12% compared to 1.09 % of the total before taxes. Forthe tranche with the largest income (3.1%), the after taxincome share dropped only to 15% from a 15.9% share beforetaxes.

These indicators point out to the need to further strengthenincome tax share to enhance equity; especially in the caseof Lebanon, where income distribution is highly skewed. TheOECD countries, for instance, have moved in their recent taxpolicy reform towards reducing marginal income tax rates andplacing more reliance on VAT and other indirect taxes.However, income taxes remained the largest portion of totaltax revenue in these countries (25%, compared to 3.3% inLebanon). Their reforms set priority on fairness andsimplicity, and were based on public support reflected inthe platform of political parties.

New measures needed

In Lebanon, a more effective collection of income tax evenat the current rate structure (five marginal rates) couldraise revenue by another 6% of GDP, thus closing most of thefiscal gap needed to reduce debt accumulation. Income is thelargest tax base that needs to be fully tapped. Currently,civil servants and wage earners are the most compliant. Somereforms are inevitable, however, such as treating financialand on-financial enterprises equally by raising the rate onthe former to 21% and applying this one rate on both.

The direction of reforms in Lebanon needs to be based onpublic choice rather on a centralized decision induced onlyby the objective of raising revenue. An open public debate(or even a referendum) on tax choices could guide thegovernment and garner support for its decision.

Dr. Mounir Rached is a senior IMF economist and a founding member of the Lebanese EconomicAssociation. The views in this article don’t represent those of the IMF. Dr. Ghassan Deeba is Associate Professor at the LAU.

June 1, 2007 0 comments
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Lebanon

Looking Overseas – Banks eye lucrative markets

by Executive Staff June 1, 2007
written by Executive Staff

Bullish is not a term many would use to describe Lebanon’seconomy in the current situation, or indeed Lebanon’sbanking sector on a domestic level, but when it comes toLebanese banks expanding beyond their own borders, bullishwould seem to be the right terminology.

All the Alpha banks, along with a good proportion of theBeta banks, are getting in on the act, putting Lebanon backon the regional banking map after largely disappearing fromview in the late 1970s when the sector lost out to Bahrainand the UAE as a Middle Eastern banking hub. In manyrespects, the roller coaster ride Lebanon has been on forthe past few years has actually been positive for thebanking sector, compelling banks to diversify away fromLebanon and mirror the movement of Lebanese white collarworkers that have gone to the Gulf and elsewhere in theMiddle East in search of more promising employment.

As Semaan Bassil, vice-chairman and general manager ofByblos Bank put it, “One positive thing of the [July] warwas putting pressure on Lebanon to find new markets outside.This is very healthy, as before the civil war, the marketwas outside.”

Changes to the regulatory environment in the MENA regionhave also been conducive to the banks expansionaryaspirations. Syria’s banking sector came in from the cold in2001, allowing foreign and private banks for the first timein over 30 years; Sudan, Algeria and Egypt have opened up,and Qatar has becoming an increasingly assertive financialmarket.

An additional factor is that the Lebanese market holds fewpossibilities for serious growth. “All banks have reached asaturation point and cannot compete for more market share.The main driving force is [that the banks are] not happy inLebanon,” said Shadi Karam, Chairman of BLC.

Equally, it has only been in the last few years that bankswere able to viably entertain the idea of expansion. “Onlynow have banks reached a certain size to allow them toexpand overseas – whether in total assets or equity,” saidSalim Sfeir, Chairman and General Manager of the Bank ofBeirut (BoB). Chasing the money

The Central Bank has been key to the expansion, relaxingcross border lending and dishing out approvals to encouragethe sector to charter new waters. Indeed, with bank lendingto the government gradually declining – although still thebedrock of the banking sector – the Central Bank, under thesound guiding hand of Governor Riad Salameh, is under nomisconceptions about the potential for cannibalism if bankswere not able to seek new markets.

Equally, with inter Arab trade estimated at $20 billion,Lebanon would be foolish not to go after a larger slice ofthat pie, given its geographical positioning and commercialas well as retail banking strength. Lebanese bankers alsohave an added advantage over their internationalcounterparts operating in the Middle East – namely, anunderstanding of the culture and language as well as theknow-how of turning a banking sector around, as was the casein Lebanon after the civil war. Lacking such insight, someBritish banks that recently entered Egypt have read themarket wrongly in terms of products and services. But forLebanese banks, such attributes have played into thebankers’ hands, particularly in Jordan and in Syria. Aftertwo and half years in Jordan, Audi “could reach $2.5 billionin assets,” said Freddie Baz, advisor to the chairman atBank Audi. While in Syria, after two years of operations,Audi Syria reached some $400 million in assets. BLOM andByblos have also fared well in Syria.

The fledgling Syrian market is attractive to other banks,with First National Bank (FNB) an 8% stake holder in thesoon to be launched Syria Gulf Bank, and Libano-Francaise,BoB and Fransabank waiting for licenses. The Lebanese-Canadian Bank (LCB) and CreditBank also plan to enter theSyrian market. “It’s a natural expansion into Syria, as itwill benefit the sector and help to converge the two marketsto a common denominator,” said Tarek Khalife,chairman-general manager of CreditBank.

For Libano-Francaise – with 10% to 15% of its business inLebanon consisting of corporate loans to Syria, and 90% oftheir Paris operation catering to Syrians – the bank was“following our clients,” explained Walid Raphael, deputygeneral manager. The bank had planned to enter Syriaearlier, but shareholders in France opposed the move.

Cairo and beyond

Jammal Trust Bank (JTB) is also in expansion mode, planningto rectify their position in the Egyptian market afterlosing their license in 2005. “When the late chairman passedaway two months before the [Egyptian] Central Bankrequirement to increase capital, I couldn’t raise anextraordinary session because the one who passed away held99% of the shares. I had to wind down operations, but nottotally liquefy,” said Anwar Jammal, Chairman and CEO of JTB.

√Meanwhile, JTB is looking to expand to West Africa. “Ithink there is huge potential, be it catering to Lebaneseexpatriates or the locals. We’re also hoping, at a laterstage, to move into the Gulf,” said Jammal.

Other banks are faring better in Egypt, which is proving tobe a lucrative market. Bank Audi bought Cairo Far East Bankwith $47 million in assets, and after nine months, had $1billion. BLOM bought Misr-Romania Bank at the end of 2005for $100 million, $60 million in net equity and $40 million“in good will.” “The first year generated profits of $11million. For the first three months this year, it was $6.3million, so by year’s end, it should reach $15 million,”said Saad Azhari, BLOM’s vice chairman and general manager.After a year of operations, BLOM Egypt had 40% growth inlending and 25% in deposits.

BLOM, Byblos and Audi are already in the Gulf, and otherbanks are also moving to have a slice of the boomingmarkets. CreditBank plans to open offices in the QatarFinancial Center (QFC) and the Dubai Financial Center, aswell as a representative office in Kuwait. BLC, which wasbought out by the Qatari Investment Authority in late 2005and is well established in the UAE, is planning to open inthe QFC.

Driving the move to the Gulf is the surging number ofLebanese expatriates working there, using correspondingbanks or the Lebanese bank equivalent to remit money home.For instance, in 2002 there were some 3,500 Lebanese inQatar, there are now 35,000, according to Khalife. Suchremittances are highly significant to the economy, withworldwide remittances to Lebanon recently estimated at $5.2billion or equivalent to 25% of national GDP.

As Khalife remarked, “The middle class has disappeared fromview, but not from the banks, they are [working] in theregional markets.”

Risky business

While Algeria is proving a promising market for BLOM,Fransabank and the Lebanese-Canadian Bank with its 60% stakein Trust Bank Algeria, banks are wary of the recentlyliberalized Libyan market for political and bureaucraticreasons. Indeed, one of the top five banks recounted how anemployee wasn’t able to visit Tripoli to prospect thebanking sector as he was unable to get a visa. Sudan is alsoseen as potentially risky given the ropy peace and thetroubles in Darfur, but Bank Byblos is already present, asare the Lebanese-Canadian Bank with a 3% stake in Al SalaamBank, Fransabank with a 20% stake in United Capital Bank,and just last month, Bank of Beirut acquired an 18% stake inthe Saudi-French Bank.

Bank Audi is also optimistic about its presence there.“Sudan could bring millions of dollars in assets, its on theright track to increase significantly,” said Baz. Some banksare equally bullish about Iraq, with Byblos andInternational Bank operating in Irbil in the Kurdish areaand FNB angling to get in on the action.

“We are looking very seriously to open in Irbil, probably in2008 with a license for all of Iraq,” said Yasser Mortada,deputy general manager of FNB.

Other banks are hesitant to enter the market until thesituation improves and clearer regulations are establishedconcerning Central Bank regulations, whether from Irbil tooperate in Northern Iraq or in Baghdad to operate in thewhole country. Such issues recently warded off Bank Audi,and as BLOM’S Azhari put it, “we look at countries more andnot less stable than Lebanon.” Given the current situationin Lebanon, that is probably sound advice.

Nonetheless, the benefits of expanding outside of Lebanonare manifold. BLOM and Audi are now among the top 20 banksin the region in assets and ratings, with both estimating50% of deposits will come from outside Lebanon in the nextfive years. Already some 40% of the deposits collected byLebanese banks abroad are by BLOM, said Azhari, while ByblosBank’s foreign operations account for 20% of profits anddeposits, slated to reach 40% in the next five years. “It’sa win-win situation for well established companies to useLebanon as a platform to export products and services,” saidBassil.

Whether Lebanese banks will go even further afield as theygrow larger, banks are reticent to say. Libano-Francaisehinted that they were not confining plans to the MENAregion, and Sfeir said that the Bank of Beirut was activelyseeking acquisitions to establish new branches in differentmarkets.

Further expansion of Lebanese banks in the region isassured, although the country’s most regionally prolificbank, Bank Audi, was keeping quiet about its expansionstrategies. “Currently in the pipeline are three to fourother markets we are working on, either for a license oracquisition. We will hopefully close the year with a minimumof two new expansions in the region,” said Baz.

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By Invitation

The dire need for acquisition financing

by Imad Ghandour June 1, 2007
written by Imad Ghandour

Private equity in the region is like a limbering man: almostall acquisitions of this $20 billion industry are beingfinanced directly from the coffers of the private equityfunds. It is the good, old way of investing, but somethingthat has been abandoned a long time ago in other parts ofthe world.

What is missing from the private equity secret potion is thepower of leveraging: using less expensive debt to financeacquisitions instead of using the more expensive equity.Take an example: Suppose a company is acquired for $100million by equity only (ie all the $100 million came fromthe private equity fund) and is sold at $130 million in oneyear, then the IRR is 30%. However, if the same investmentis financed by $50 million bank loan at 10% interest rate,than the remaining $50 million invested directly from thefund own pocket will be returned as $75 million aftersettling the loan and the interest of $5 million, thusyielding an IRR of 50%. This is the power of leveraging!

With relatively low interest rates on the US dollar and thecarry trade from yen to other currencies, it became veryattractive to use debt to finance private equityacquisitions. Today, more than 80% of an acquisition isfinanced by different flavors of debt, and 20% is financedby the fund’s own money. With record global private equityvolume of $650 billion in 2006, the acquisition financemarket has ballooned to reach more than $400 billion.

Mezz & Co

In order to drive the maximum benefit out of leveraging,private equity players have perfected the art of leveragingnot only through traditional bank financing, but throughusing mezzanine financing as well.

A typical private equity deal will have several layers ofdebt put on top of each other in order to reach the maximumlevel of debt based on the companies operating cash flowswhile at the same time optimizing the interest and principalpayments. A typical deal will have two layers of senior bankdebt, one amortizing quickly and another one with back-endedpayments. On top of that, there will be several layers ofmore exotic debt: second lien debt, subordinate unsecureddebt, high yield bonds, mezz debt with equity kickers,preferred shares, etc.

Commercial banks are the typical suppliers of senior(secure) debt. The more exotic flavors are supplied from anincreasingly diversified group of financial institutions.Pension funds, insurance companies, and endowments will beseeking to have higher yield debt with long tenors in orderto meet their long term obligations. There are also aspecialized number of mezzanine funds, and hedge funds areone of the newest entrants, seeking complex structures thatwill yield even higher returns.

Middle East is still behind

Unfortunately, the debt providers in the region are stillbehind in this area Most PE transactions in the region arestill financed largely through equity due to the limitedavailability of proper debt financing, and less than 10% ofPE transactions are leveraged at the target company level.

The limitation of debt financing in the region is drivenby a limited understanding for the PE asset class by lendinginstitutions, shallow debt capital markets, andunsophisticated lending focused on balance sheet assets,collateral and personal or mother company guarantees. Thesefactors are leading PE firms to seek financing frominternational players while others are attempting to educatelocal lenders on the concept of cash flow based lending.

Given that it is expected that the private equity industrywill have $20 billion of assets under management in 2007,Arab banks simply cannot ignore the opportunity to financeacquisitions. International banks are starting to offerlocal PE players this product, and local banks have startedto take notice. Given the attractive margins on acquisitionfinance, local banks will sooner or later set up specializedunits targeting this niche. However, the more exotic formsof debt, like mezzanine, will probably take slightly longerbefore becoming readily available in the region.

Imad Ghandour is Principal – Gulf Capital andHead of Information & Statistics Committee –GVCA

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Lebanon

Alternative Strategies – Banks staying strong

by Executive Staff June 1, 2007
written by Executive Staff

The Lebanese banking sector has always had an exceptionaldegree of resilience given Lebanon’s checkered politicalhistory. The current political crisis and economic malaiseis no exception, with Lebanese banks reporting stronggrowth, launching new products, and diversifying throughexpanding into new markets.

But challenges do lie ahead for the sector. The situation isaffecting banks’ overall strategies – driving externalgrowth in particular – and with the implementation of theBasel II Framework only six months off, the requirements arelikely to act as a catalyst for further consolidation of thecountry’s heavily banked sector.

“The major problem we banks face stems from the differencebetween risk and uncertainty. Risk is something measurable –there are tons of models to manage risk – but uncertainty issomething not measurable. By its very nature, its parametersare flimsy,” said Shadi Karam, Chairman of BLC.

“The situation is creating a huge question mark onfunctional decision making in institutions. If you havequestions about tactical moves, it affects strategicalmoves,” he added.

And as Walid Raphael, deputy general manager of BanqueLibano-Francaise pointed out, “most players are onwait-and-see mode. We still see new projects, but the paceof investments are lower than early last year.”

Nonetheless, due to the unique role of Lebanon’s bankingsector in the economy, the real economy might be in thedoldrums, but the monetary sector is not. The reasons forthis are manifold: the huge remittances from Lebaneseabroad, which brings in an estimated 25% of the country’sGDP; banks’ high capital ratios; interest on lending to thegovernment; and a buoyant real estate sector.

“The major driver is GDP not foreign investment,” saidFreddie Baz, advisor to the chairman at Bank Audi. “TheLebanese are still the most important trigger for aggregateddemand, so is therefore GDP growth. We are not borrowingfrom domestic income but national income, from inflows fromexpats. As long as this exists, inflows are unrelated to thesituation in Lebanon and the monetary sector is immune,” headded.

This was evidenced last year when the war dampened growth onthe real sector and monetary sector deposits increased in2006 by $6.5 billion.

The cumulative assets of Lebanese banks also reflect thesector’s strong position. At $78 billion, or 375% ofLebanon’s GDP, the sector is far and above the regionalaverage of 90% of GDP, 107% in emerging markets, and 132% indeveloped economies.

This is in large part due to profitability of financingLebanon’s public debt, which is currently at $41 billion.

“Most profit comes form the government and will take time todiversify away from that,” said Semaan Bassil, Byblos Bankvice-chairman general manager. “So as long as the governmentborrows and pays, and keeps costs under control, banks willmake money but can’t rely on that forever.”

After all, returns on investments have slid from highs of40% in the 1990s to less than 10% after the Paris II donorconference. BLOM Bank’s TBs and Eurobonds, for instance, nowaccount for 17% of its balance sheet versus 24% to 25% in2003.

Nonetheless, BLOM is managing a new Eurobond issue withCitibank to raise $400 million for the government.

Products and more products

With so many factors at play, banks are adopting twofoldstrategies – consolidate market share and expand regionally(see page 40). With one eye on the region and the other onthe domestic market, banks have spent millions in the lastfew years on infrastructure and upgrading services.

In such a highly competitive market where the top threebanks – Audi, Byblos and BLOM – have over 50% of the marketand the other 61 banks vie for the rest, banks are coming upwith innovative ways to sell products.

“Lebanese banks are making big efforts in advertising andmarketing to attract new segments of the population,” saidElie Azar, marketing manager at the Lebanese-Canadian Bank.“It’s harder to attract new customers than keep customers,”he added.

As a result, banks have repackaged personal loans with newnames to entice customers, from solar panels and dental careto computers and plastic surgery. First National Bank (FNB)has been at the forefront of such campaigns, offering thehighly publicized plastic surgery loan.

“We are number 14 in size, but in relation to our peergroup, we spend a lot more on publicity than ourcompetitors,” said Yasser Mortada, deputy general manager ofFNB. “We offer different products from the plain vanillaproducts on offer.”

But, such advertising splurges are not seen as overlysound, some bankers say, given the outlay in relation to thereturns.

“These advertising campaigns cost a huge amount of money andthe products are not profitable per se, they are better forimage building,” said Salim Sfeir, chairman-general managerof the Bank of Beirut.

For banks not in the top 10, brand building is essentialto attract more local customers, but given the economicconditions, this is proving difficult.

“This year, there will be no growth in the economy, maybe1%. We need stability to promote products and grant loans.You cannot have a prosperous banking sector if there is apoor economy, and vice versa,” said Azar.

As a result, most commercial banks are now focusing onprivate banking, wealth management and insurance todiversify their portfolios.

“We want to establish private banking and investment bankingas we believe markets are not accessible enough. This isstill lacking in the economy and something to be developed,”said Tarek Khalife, chairman-general manager of CreditBank.

FNB is also looking to expand its investment portfoliothrough its 60% ownership of the Middle East Capital Group.“The time is not good for investment banking services, butonce back to normal there will be plenty of opportunities,”said Mortada.

Credit and charge cards are also a growing segment forbanks, with the number of cards issued surging in the lastfew years as electronic payments become more widespread.

“Until three or four years ago people paid cash, but now useelectronic transfers. That has increased the bankingpopulation,” said Anwar Jammal, Chairman and CEO of JammalTrust Bank (JTB).

Banks have adopted the same strategy to market cards as inthe West, using point reward schemes, free insurance,mystery prizes, and by teaming up with mobile phoneproviders to offer free calls.

Banks are, however, essentially chasing a limited numberof economically viable clients, prompting some institutionsto cater to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) andlower income customers.

“The possibility for expansion within Lebanon is somewhatlimited if you just go by head count. How many of the fourmillion are bankable?” questioned Jammal. Indeed, with anestimated 60% of the country’s wealth in the hands of 6% ofthe population, serious increases in GDP per capita areneeded for the sector to take a closer interest in theoverall population.

JTB itself is focusing on the SME sector, which now accountsfor 85% of the bank’s clientele.

Personal vs. automated

There appear to be two schools of thought in Beirutbanking circles about how to expand and reach morecustomers. One school favors bricks and mortar, as Jammalput it, investing in new branches in the less banked areasof the country and in the capital.

“The aspect of face-to-face interaction with clientele isvery important. The click entity doesn’t work, you need abrick and mortar entity,” said Jammal, citing thedifficulties British banks had that went the solelyautomated route.

The other school has embraced a mix of automated andpersonal.

“A physical presence is important, but penetration of themarket is not necessarily through banks. In the developedworld, it is less important, and this is where we think theindustry is going,” said Mortada.

The number of FNB branches has soared from four to 18 inthe last six years, and more are planned.

“Having a physical presence helps but it’s not the only wayto have contact with prospective clients. Today, withelectronic banking and mass communications, you can attractclients by providing special customer services,” addedMortada.

BLOM, the Bank of Beirut and Banque Libano-Francaise areto open new branches in the coming months, with the majorityof banks also investing in online services.

Bank Audi plans to continue its expansion. “Every year wewill expand our network. The Lebanese banking market is seenas over banked, over banked in numbers, but explicitmeasures – accounts per household, banks per capita – youfind it’s not over-banked despite reaching a size large fora domestic economy,” said Baz.

From Basel I to II

The smaller banks that rely more on the personal bankingrelationship might suffer from the Central Bank requiredimplementation of Basel II by the beginning of next year.

The vast majority of banks are in the final stages ofimplementing the Bank of International Settlements’ RevisedInternational Capital Framework, drawn up in Basel,Switzerland last July to replace the 1988 Basel I Accords.

Basel II provides measures and minimum standards forcapital adequacy for banks to better handle risk, along withrequirements to implement compliance, under a three pillarconcept: i) minimum capital requirements; ii) supervisoryreview; and iii) market discipline to promote greaterstability in the financial system. The cost of implementingBasel II poses the main headache for the smaller banks.

“We expect more consolidation as a lot of banks cannotafford the system,” said Azhari.

Such costs will cut into profitability, and unless bankscan weather profit loss in the short-term, mergers or sellsout are likely for either regional Arab banks or the bigthree.

“We would like to consolidate further to leverage more outof our extensive branch network, and by increasing marketshare to 15% to 16%,” said Byblos’ Bassil.

Baz said that due to the high capitalization of Lebanesebanks, mergers and acquisitions will be kept to a minimum.“It won’t generate any systemic crisis in the banks. I don’tforesee any pressure at this level,” he said.

With banks nevertheless eyeing prospective targets, theCentral Bank should act pro-actively in anticipation ofpotential fallout from Basel II.

“The Central Bank and the authorities have a major role toplay now to revive law on mergers and encourage banks toundergo consolidation,” said Karam.

June 1, 2007 0 comments
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Capitalist Culture

Goodbye, but not good riddance

by Michael Young June 1, 2007
written by Michael Young

For some people, the humiliation of Paul Wolfowitz, who atthe end of this month will step down as president of theWorld Bank after allegedly showing favoritism for his femalecompanion, Shaha Ali Reza, was his second defeat at thehands of the Middle East. The interpretation is tendentious,but it’s true that Wolfowitz paid the price in Washingtonfor his involvement in the Iraq war. And that was theproblem.

Wolfowitz’s legacy will long be debated by historians, muchlike that of Robert McNamara, who was defense secretaryduring the Vietnam war, before being named as head of theWorld Bank. Yet where McNamara spent decades ploddingthrough personal atonement for the war he had played a keyrole in sustaining, Wolfowitz has never doubted himself, orallowed anguish to push him to the edge of mental collapse.

That is what seemed to irritate so many employees at theBank, after the Bush administration named Wolfowitz toreplace James Wolfensohn. Here was a man who personifiedevil in the minds of many employees, who had supposedlystarted a war that no cultivated person could endorse; yetwho also had the bad taste not to admit it. Precisely whyWolfowitz was under any obligation to come clean before aconfederacy of international bureaucrats remains unclear –bureaucrats who are among the most pampered on the planet,therefore, phonier for wearing their self-righteousness on their sleeve, and appointed by governmentsthat often amorally deal with the most corrupt statesaround.

The specifics of the Wolfowitz case notwithstanding, hisposition was untenable from the moment the news leaked outthat he had provided an especially high pay raise to AliReza, after she was forced to temporarily leave the Bank toavoid a conflict of interest. Wolfowitz’s defenders say he’sthe one who admitted to the relationship in the first place,and that Ali Reza was entitled to a high pay raise becauseshe was unfairly removed from her post and paid heavily forthis. Moreover, Wolfowitz believed the Bank’s board hadokayed the step. The president’s critics said the board didno such thing, and that Wolfowitz knew something was amissby trying to cover it up. The point was moot, however, oncethe president found himself disowned by both his staff andby the Bank’s governors.

When the Europeans dropped Wolfowitz, he was pretty muchfinished. While it would be nice to see it as a case of asystem righting bureaucratic abuse, the fact is that much ofthe staff and the governors probably saw a goldenopportunity to get rid of someone they never really caredfor, who rarely tried to compromise with the institution’sbulky bureaucracy.

Which takes us back to the Iraq war. We may not know howmuch of a role Iraq played in Wolfowitz’s removal, but it’ssafe to say that he arrived at the Bank’s headquarterstarred and feathered by the conflict. Similarly, Ali Rezanever fit the mold of Arabs mostly critical of Americanbehavior in the Middle East. She was a believer in USinterventionism to help democratize the Arab world. Herintimacy with Wolfowitz was, if nothing else, a sign thatwhen considering the Middle East, he had a face off which tobounce his grand ambitions; it was not mere manipulation ofpower. Indeed, Wolfowitz was one of the rare Bushadministration officials who actually seemed to care aboutArab democracy, and who brought ideas to the table indefending his choices – albeit sometimes overly abstractones.

I recall interviewing him in 2004 and hearing him mention,with considerable precision, his worries that the Kurds hadgotten too much autonomy in the Transitional AdministrativeLaw, the interim Iraqi constitution. He went on to refer toFederalist No. 10 on how to avoid factionalism, which eventhen he realized was emerging as Iraq’s greatest bane. Thereis no doubt that Wolfowitz bears a great deal ofresponsibility for the fiasco in Iraq, and that won’t goaway, but the war was not for him what it was for manyothers in the administration: an expedient item allowing asenior official to keep his place in the presidential loop.

That’s why the outcome at the World Bank was sounsatisfactory. Wolfowitz erred, but just as he needed tobetter engage the bureaucracy of the World Bank, the Bankcould have responded better to a person well placed toremind entrenched pencil pushers what their job was allabout. There is a moral dimension to the Bank’s work thatthe staff often ignores. And while there are those who willargue that Paul Wolfowitz has no claims to moralitywhatsoever, they will have to prove that the World Bank,frequently a monument of amorality through its devotion tothe status quo, deserves to be the one distributing thebrownie points.

Michael Young

June 1, 2007 0 comments
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GCC

Kuwait: Tapping into banking gold

by Executive Staff May 31, 2007
written by Executive Staff

Kuwait’s banking industry has risen to new challenges and increased prominence in the past two years as the Gulf’s northernmost emirate was simultaneously tested by its ballooning revenues and by the deflation of the regional stock market bubble. With a handful of commercial and even fewer Islamic banks, the banking sector’s importance is considerably weightier than the number of players might suggest.

A clear indicator for the sector’s growing role in the national economic fabric is the position of banking in the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE), where the nine listed Kuwaiti banks account for close to one third of total market capitalization although they make up barely 5% of listed companies.

Banks were at the forefront of the upward trend on KSE this year, which outdid other Gulf equity markets in terms of stable improvements and overall performance. Compared with the 12% gain of the KSE’s general index from the start of the year to mid May, the banking sub-index grew twice as strong, showing an improvement of 24%.

As Safaa Zbib, head of research at Kuwait-based financial firm Bayan Investment told Executive, commercial banks ended the first quarter of 2007 with strong earnings that helped them outperform the other seven sectors on the KSE.

The eight banks that published quarterly financial reports by the end of April, indeed showed their consistent qualities in the first quarter results that (excluding BKME for which no result was available) totaled KD218.3 million – equal to $757.8 million, 28.8% better than in the first quarter of 2006.

Sector leader National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) had the lowest percentage growth with 13.4% but topped the results list in absolute numbers with KD64 million, ahead by almost KD13 million on runner-up Kuwait Finance House, the country’s top Islamic bank.

The banking sector’s share in the KSE market capitalization climbed six percentage points to 31% at the close of the first quarter of 2007, Zbib said. In mid-May, the cumulative market cap of the eight stood at nearly $54 billion, with NBK and KFH accounting for more than $32 billion between them.

Also noteworthy, KFH had considerably narrowed the valuation distance to sector leader NBK to less than $400 million from more than $3.5 billion at the end of 2006. KFH caught up with NBK’s market value through a combined bonus shares and rights issue for 40% of its capital this spring. NBK on its part executed a 5% bonus issue but also extended again a share buyback program for 10% of its stock, which went into a third six-month round in May.

Successful strategies

NBK told Executive in a written statement that it credited the fast growing economy’s hunger for loans, investment, and core banking services on both the retail and corporate levels as lead factors in its success. The bank’s successful strategy enabled it “to deepen our market penetration both in terms of customer acquisition and providing our customers with a wider scope of service offerings.”

Zbib said the banking sector’s strong development in the past few years was partly due to the opening up of the Islamic banking sector in 2004. Until then, Kuwait Finance House held a government-enforced monopoly on Kuwait’s sharia-compliant banking market. After the central bank lifted prohibitions against the creation of new Islamic banks, Boubyan Bank entered the field, raising $260.7 million in its IPO and one specialized bank, Kuwait Real Estate Bank, switched to sharia-compliance. However, numbers prove that allowing the entry of new Islamic banks did not harm the profits at KFH, to the contrary.

Oil, being the life juice of the Kuwaiti economy, also figured in the growth spurt of the banking sector. The banks’ performance both for the quarter and the past few years come on the back of loans to finance large oil and gas projects, said Mihir Marfatia, a financial analyst with Kuwait’s Global Investment House.

The banks’ total assets grew 29% to $97.6 billion in 2006 from $75.7 billion in 2005, not including Kuwait Real Estate Bank, for which 2006 figures are not available.

Commercial banks have also indirectly impacted the market through providing a means for economic growth and diversification, said Jan Randolph, an analyst with US-based Global Insights, which studies Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. Randolph told Executive that banks in Kuwait act as vehicles for development in the economy, supporting the development of other sectors.

With their consistent earnings growth, Kuwaiti banking stocks became attractive investments, according to Zbib.  “The banking sector in general is a steady sector – and not risky,” she said.

Although banks are an important source for the upward share price momentum that the KSE experienced this year, they did not influence the market through big-time share buying. “You won’t see banks impact the Kuwaiti stock market directly,” said the head of research at Oman’s BankMuscat, who did not want to be named.

According to BankMuscat’s research, Kuwait’s banks have fueled the buying of shares on the KSE only through their lending activities, which were dominated by retail lending in 2004, 2005 and 2006.

Keeping close watch

A key factor in the sector’s stability has been the watchful eye of Kuwait’s Central Bank, which monitors commercial banks to ensure they follow international standards, practice transparent corporate disclosures and maintain high capital adequacy levels, said Karim Kamal, who heads the research department at NBK.

“It’s not that there are very strict rules on how to do business, but there’s very strict control and follow-up that doesn’t allow banks to do risky things,” he said. “Because of this, investors see the low-risk aspect of investing in the banking sector. So whenever they feel there are winds of change or a downturn in the stock exchange, they park their money in the relatively safe banking sector.”

In one example of its sector control, the Central Bank stepped in during 2004 by mandating banks to lower their lending ratios from 92% of deposits and follow what was called the 80:20 rule. It stipulated banks could only lend 80% of their deposits, but re-classified deposits to make the rule less restrictive.

While it was not exactly followed, the rule brought lending ratios closer to the 80% mark. The central bank has since increased the ceiling to 88% of deposits, Marfatia said.

The year 2004 was a busy one on the regulatory front as the central bank also opened Kuwait’s banking sector to foreign operators while maintaining restrictions that offered domestic banks protection of their retail business. “While the Central Bank has been granting licenses to international and regional banks in Kuwait, it has been limiting those licenses to one branch, making it impossible for those banks to compete on the retail level,” Kamal said.

The only exception to the rule is the Bank of Kuwait and the Middle East (BKME). It was privatized in 2003 by the Kuwait Investment Authority, which allowed Bahrain’s Ali Ahli United Bank to buy a controlling stake, 67.33%, in BKME (originally a foreign bank that the Kuwaiti state had bought from the British in 1971) and allowed it to keep operating its multiple branches.

But by and large, foreign banks wanting to work in the Kuwaiti market – the first operating license went to BNP Paribas in 2004 – have to focus on the corporate market and on private banking for high net-worth individuals.

After having expanded their local activities in the past few years, Kuwaiti banks are now facing the challenges of taking the leap abroad and become players outside of their borders.

“Our challenge is not on the local scene,” Randa Azar, NBK’s chief economist, told Executive. “It is more related to the regulatory barriers to our ability to execute our regional expansion strategy.”

Some analysts, like Randolph of Global Insights, cautioned that banks in Kuwait and other GCC countries ought to take care to cover themselves against over-concentration of lending to particular sectors, such as real estate, where a fall in asset qualities and investment losses could have devastating consequences for overexposed lenders.

The latest measure of the Kuwaiti authorities, the surprise announcement on May 19 that the dinar will shift from a dollar peg to be tied in the future to a currency basket, may not make regional expansion easier for Kuwaiti banks, as the move enforces doubts on the implementation of a GCC monetary union in 2010. For the moment, though, analysts agree it is too early to say what impact the re-pegging of the dinar will have on the business of Kuwait’s commercial banks.

May 31, 2007 0 comments
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Banking & Finance

Money Matters by BLOMINVEST Bank

by Executive Staff May 31, 2007
written by Executive Staff

Regional stock market indices

Regional currency rates

QNB launches representative office in Libya

Qatar National Bank (QNB) launched a representative office in Libya, and that in accordance with the bank’s plan of international expansion. With the Libyan office, QNB’s presence now extends to 15 countries, among which are Oman, Kuwait, Singapore, UAE, UK, France and Switzerland. QNB reported net profits of QAR652.8 million ($179.4 million) in Q1-2007, up 6.7% year-on-year. The bank’s total assets rose 22.1% for the same period to QAR70 billion ($19.2 billion), while loans rose 41.5% to QAR47.2 billion ($13 billion) and customer deposits increased to QAR52.7 billion ($14.5 billion), up 15.8%.

Abu Dhabi’s Aldar to exclusively construct Ferrari theme park

Abu Dhabi-based public joint stock company Aldar Properties signed an exclusive deal with Ferrari to construct the Ferrari Theme Park on Aldar’s Yas Island Project. The theme park will feature attractions, family rides, driving school, virtual simulations and Ferrari brand products retail store. Aldar, established in 2004 and currently employing 200 people, is behind the development of the $40 billion 25 million m2 Yas Island project. The island, which will host Ferrari’s theme park, will also include golf courses, hotels, marinas, polo clubs and apartments etc. The project will be completed by 2014, with the first phase excepted to be done by 2008.

Country profile: Jordan

Jordan Investment Trust PLC (Jordinvest) issued its Jordan Economic Report 2006 explaining that despite the difficult regional environment surrounding Jordan, the country managed to experience high economic growth in 2006, as Jordan established itself “as a secure haven to conduct business.” The country’s GDP registered a growth rate of 6.4% in 2006, down from 7.2% in 2005. Unemployment rate dropped to 13.9% in 2006 accompanied by a rise in inflation rate to 6.25%, up from 3.5% in 2005. This exhibited growth was supported by the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) sound monetary policy that kept the dinar’s peg to the dollar. CBJ’s official reserves were at $6.1 billion in 2006. The Amman Stock Exchange witnessed a correction similar to that witnessed by other regional stock markets. Consequently, the Amman Stock Exchange Index closed at 5,518 points in 2006, down 33% year-on-year. The country’s budget deficit improved from 5.3% of GDP in 2005 to 4.4% of 2006 GDP, or some $627 million. According to Jordinvest’s report, Jordan’s external trade (exports and imports) surged by 10% in 2006, pushing the ratio of external trade to GDP (economic openness ratio) to 109%, the second year in a row in which external trade exceeds GDP in Jordan.

May 31, 2007 0 comments
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Banking & Finance

Debt vulnerability and risks for solvency

by Executive Staff May 31, 2007
written by Executive Staff

Lebanon’s public debt has been accumulating rapidly over the past decade and a half, making Lebanon one of  the most publicly indebted countries in the globe. Political imperatives and reconstruction needs led to large fiscal deficits and debt  build up. Higher than anticipated costs combined with elusive assumptions on growth and aid kept the overall fiscal deficit at 22% of GDP by 2000, raising  public debt to 151%  of GDP.

Realizing that debt build up could generate solvency concerns, strong fiscal discipline was initiated in 2001 involving freezing expenditure and introducing value added tax (VAT), generating primary surpluses for the first time, and stabilizing the debt rate.

Nevertheless, Public debt by end 2006 reached $40 billion, 178% of GDP. The fundamental question remains: how much solvency risk does this level of debt impose on the Lebanese economy? The peculiarities of public debt as well as that of the Lebanese economy have enabled Lebanon to avert crises even under extreme political stress and turmoil. Large private transfers, limited external market exposure, lower rollover risk, and comfortable reserves have allowed Lebanon to sustain higher public debt than one would otherwise expect.

Lebanon is a very open economy with heavy dependence on transfers from the Lebanese diaspora. Annual private transfers are one of the highest in the world, estimated at over 20% of its GDP. Accounting for these transfers brings down the debt ratio to 140% of disposable income (GDP plus transfers). A rate deemed closer to a sustainable threshold.

External debt exposure

Lebanon’s exposure to external debt, at 15% of the total ($6 billion), by end 2006, is low by emerging market standards, and much lower than that of countries that faced financial crises. Further, nearly half of it is to official creditors with long term maturity. The large central bank reserve cushion  of $13 billion (excluding gold)  can certainly absorb a sudden reverse in sentiment in external private markets.

Another peculiar feature of Lebanon’ debt structure is the successive decline in its market  debt ratio to 60% of total debt in 2006 from 82% in 2000. Market debt to GDP and as well to disposable income has declined to 110% and 88% respectively, perceived as more viable ratios.  The central bank has increased its holding of public debt to 25%; official creditors’ share as well increased to 11%. The counterpart to increased central bank financing has been a rise in commercial banks claims on the central bank, notably in the form of long-term deposit certificates.

The increased intermediation role of the central bank (with a lower default risk) has pacified financial markets at a time of increased political uncertainty. However, this operation has it own cost, weakening the financial strength of the central bank.  Shocks to the financial system, however, can still be  absorbed by its reserve base and swap operations, albeit at a higher cost, as in the case following Hariri’s assassination.

High share of debt holdings for commercial banks

Commercial banks’ share of public debt holding, however, remains high at nearly 50%  and  is closely linked to the stability of the deposit base (banks’ liabilities) and the maturity of public debt. The rollover risk is low owing to the banks’ strong incentive not to jeopardize the financial viability of their main debtor, the government. Their  inter-twined interest, limited exposure to foreign banking, and high liquidity has limited their alternatives.

Lebanese banks continue to experience high liquidity brought about by its ability to attract substantial flows from regional financial markets, making money supply to GDP   (nearly 3 times) one of the highest in the world. Banks on their own can absorb sudden shocks of rapid  deposit withdrawals; their foreign assets are twice non-resident deposits in foreign currencies.

The term structure of Lebanon’s debt maturity structure has improved in recent years. With Paris II (and looking forward to Paris III), long term debt  has risen to three-fourths of total debt by 2006, reducing government exposure to interest rate risk. Nevertheless, compared to many emerging economies, Lebanon’s debt remains burdened by short maturity, $16 billion mature in 2007-08.

Finally, the debt overhang remains serious, raising solvency concerns and the possibility of transmission of shocks between the fiscal and the financial sectors. Serious fiscal adjustment as well as financial sector reform is urgently needed to  reduce the debt burden, diversify debt holding, and reduce the sterilization burden on the central bank.  Solvency risk, however, prompted by external shocks is low with foreign assets of the banking sector standing at $33 billion, 75% of total debt and 150% of debt denominated in foreign currencies.

Dr. Mounir Rached is a senior IMF economist, and a founding member of the Lebanese Economic Association. The views in this article are those of the author and don’t represent those of the IMF

May 31, 2007 0 comments
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Financial Indicators

Global economic data

by Executive Staff May 31, 2007
written by Executive Staff

Tourism: hotel nights

Arrivals of non-resident tourists staying in hotels and similar establishments

Average annual growth in percentage, 1998-2005 or latest available period

Source: OECD

Over the period as a whole, the United States recorded the largest number of arrivals in hotels and similar establishments followed by China, France, Italy and Spain. The 9/11 terrorist attacks resulted in sharp falls in arrivals in the United Kingdom, Mexico and the United States but did not noticeably affect arrivals in most other countries. Countries in central and eastern Europe have recorded strong increases in arrivals since 1990. The graph shows annual growth in arrivals of non-residents averaged over the period since 1998. Arrivals declined in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway and Greece but grew at 6% per year or more in New Zealand, Iceland, Japan, India, Slovak Republic, Turkey and China. Tourism 2020 Vision is the World Tourism Organization’s (UNWTO) long-term forecast and assessment of the development of tourism up to the first 20 years of the new millennium. It forecasts that international arrivals will reach over 1.56 billion by the year 2020. East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa are forecasted to record growth at rates of over 5% per year, compared with the world average of 4.1%. The more mature tourism regions, Europe and the Americas, are expected to show lower than average growth rates. Europe will maintain the highest share of world arrivals, although there will be a decline from 60% in 1995 to 46% in 2020.

Trade to GDP ratios

Difference between 2005 and 1992 ratios in percentage points

In 2005, the unweighted average of the trade-to-GDP ratios for all OECD countries was 45% and 51% for the EU15. For the reasons noted above, there were large differences in these ratios across countries. The ratios exceeded 50% for small countries—Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Neth-erlands and the Slovak Republic—but were under 15% for the two largest OECD countries—Japan and the United States. Between 1992 and 2005, trade-to-GDP ratios for the OECD as a whole increased by 13 percentage points, and the EU15 increased by 14 points. Substantial increases in trade-to-GDP ratios were recorded for Luxembourg, Hungary and Belgium.

Households with access to a home computer

Percentage of all households, 2005 or latest available year

Penetration rates are highest in Iceland, Denmark, Japan, Sweden, Korea, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway and the United Kingdom where 70 % or more of households had access to a home computer by 2005. On the other hand, shares in Turkey, Mexico, the Czech Republic and Greece were below 40%. Between 2001 and 2005, the percentages of households with access to a home computer increased particularly sharply in Japan, the United Kingdom and Germany. The picture with regard to Internet access is similar. In Korea, Iceland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden, more than 70% of households had Internet access by 2005. In Turkey, Mexico and the Czech Republic, on the other hand, only about one-fifth or less had Internet access by 2005. Data on Internet access by household composition—with or without dependent children—are available for most OECD countries. In general, they show that households with children were more likely to have Internet access at home in 2004.

Ratio of the inactive population aged 65 and over to the labor force

Percentage

The youngest populations (low shares of population aged 65 or over) are either in countries with high birth rates such as Mexico, Iceland and Turkey or in countries with high immigration, such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand. All these countries will, however, experience significant ageing over the next 50 years. The dependency ratio (right panel of the table) is projected to be close to 50% in Belgium, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy and Japan by 2020. This means that, for each elderly inactive person, there will be only two persons in the labor force. The lowest dependency ratios, under 25%, are projected for Iceland, Korea, Mexico and Turkey. All countries will experience a further sharp increase in the dependency ratio over the period 2020 to 2050.

May 31, 2007 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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