After Lebanese industry had to cope with an arduous first half of 2005, Syria’s closure of its borders to cargo shipments from Lebanon dealt manufacturers another blow. Executive asked Fadi Abboud, the president of the Association of Lebanese Industrialists, how bad the problem is and what industrialists can do to cope with the current crisis
How big is the damage that the current dispute between Lebanon and Syria inflicts on Lebanese industry and economy?
The damage is quite serious. We export Lebanese industrial and agricultural products through Syria at a value of about $50 million per month. Then we have transit shipments, which are valued at about the same amount. But in my mind, the damage is beyond economics. The damage is taking toll on the people, the Syrian people who feel hurt for various reasons, and the Lebanese people who feel that they have been abused. This could develop into hatred between the two people.
Would you call it a trade war?
For a trade war, you need two parties. But you can call it a political war. We are stuck in a problem that is not of our making. It is a war between two brothers.
What can the private sector do to solve the problem?
The private sector can do very little. We do not have a major role to play. It is not that the Syrian and Lebanese industries would be upset with each other. The Syrian and Lebanese private sectors are not fighting. The role that we can play is that we can push our politicians to deal with the problems, and I would ask our counterparts in Syria to do the same.
Given that the situation has been difficult for the first half of the year, how long can Lebanese industry hold out?
Our problem is really that there is no one to deal with our problems. Until there is a government, the situation is very difficult. Let me point you to another problem, which could be as serious as what we are facing with the Syrians: our energy cost. The government before the previous government decided due to pressures from the street to put a cap on fuel prices. The cap on diesel prices, however, finished on the end of February. Now, new diesel prices are set every Thursday. Imagine that in a country where 95% of industries produce their own electricity, the price of energy changes every Thursday.
High energy costs have confronted Lebanese industry with problems for many years. Do you have any suggestions on how to alleviate the burden?
We now pay $550 for the ton of diesel fuel, which is five times the average cost for diesel fuel in the Arab world. Our competitors pay one fifth of what we are paying, and no one is dealing with this problem with imagination. If for whatever reason we cannot deal with the energy problem we are facing in Lebanon, let’s deal with the fact that our trading partners in the Arab world are subsidizing their energy. This gives the automatic right to put a customs duty as a tax to compensate all the subsidies we are missing, which is a mechanism used by every country in the world and approved by entities such as the World Trade Organization and the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement, GAFTA.
Does that imply that you consider this to be a problem requiring a political solution?
The subsidies for energy that are found at our trading partners could be countered with customs fees. Politicians are dealing with problems as if they were political, and the industrial problem is not a problem on the plate of any of our politicians. In business, time is of the essence, and in economics, different to politics, change is possible on daily basis. A quick reaction is needed.
The billion-dollar question is, what will happen in this country if we are not able to create enough jobs in the next five years? Freedom, independence, being your own master, without a job – it doesn’t work. If this country cannot provide enough decent jobs for its own people to live, the minimum, then independence does not mean anything.
Can you as private sector not put more pressure on governmental decision makers?
Politicians have been telling us that we cannot put duty on imports because the WTO does not accept that or the European Union, or GAFTA. But these treaties tell you that if any of your industries are facing pressure, one can do whatever one has to do to sort out the problem. Energy-intensive industries, if they are not facing problems in Lebanon, who is?
Politicians are not doing anything for energy-intensive industries in Lebanon. This is beyond belief. I am sick and tired and don’t even have the energy anymore to call for a solution in sorting out the problems of energy-intensive industries in Lebanon.
Did last month’s difficulties in reaching a new government lineup contribute to your worries?
If one looked at all cabinet proposals, one can just really test all the names suggested for the economy-related ministries and you would feel that there is not really a revolution to re-write all the rules and start a new page in what is most important, creating new jobs in Lebanon. It seems that they have no regard for industry if they can find enough jobs in other sectors. A government has to provide a decent life for its citizens and if this can be achieved without industry, so be it. But the last 15 years have proven beyond any doubt that without a feasible industrial and agricultural sector, it will be virtually impossible to create enough jobs for the Lebanese people.
You mentioned international treaties that all are designed to encourage trade. Do you have any hopes that Gafta, Euromed or WTO would be beneficial to Lebanon in its difficulties with border closures by Syria?
We feel that the Lebanese who are gambling on foreign western powers to come and deal with our day-to-day problems, can be called dreamers. Unfortunately, I am not sure that western powers are always there to help. In western powers and their decisions, there is only one issue: what is best for them. And I think it is clear that we have not seen the BBC or CNN or other international media giving any importance to what is happening [at the border]. And if they are covering it, it is a very shy coverage. What I am trying to tell is that the western powers only move when their interests are in jeopardy.
What could the private sector do to circumvent the obstacles we face when trying to transit through Syria? Are there any other avenues, transport solutions, or joint venture possibilities that could be used to counter the problem?
Absolutely. We should start by managing the problem. As of today, there is no manager managing the problem that we are facing with Syrian. We can certainly use sea freight and airfreight. I am not claiming that this is a feasible solution forever but it is a solution that could help our negotiations and at the same time help us survive until we sort the other problems out.
Would it be conceivable to load the cargo of trucks stuck at the border into 747s and ferry it across?
From an industrial point of view, maybe medicine and cosmetics can be air freighted. If you are telling me that someone in Saudi Arabia is willing to send us a 747 for the grace of God, to ship our goods, it would help. But the Gulf is not buying from the Lebanese because they love the Lebanese. They would only buy from the Lebanese if what we are producing and exporting is a good deal; it has to be competitive for the right quality and right money. At the end of the day, it is a question of cost.
Many times, solutions come from big crises. Perhaps the current crisis will make us follow the avenues of sea freight and airfreight and other alternatives, and perhaps we can solve part of the problem. But I must add that this does not mean that the problem can be sorted out without proper negotiations with Syria and normalizing the relationships.
Can you tell us how many of the trucks at the border are carrying industrial cargo and how many agricultural produce?
77 % is industry, and 23 % is agriculture, that is on the borders with Syria. In general, 90 % of Lebanese exports are industrial, and 10 % are agricultural.
Why then would we hear more about rotten produce being thrown out than about industrial shipments being delayed, manufacturers being unable to fulfill contracts and losing revenues?
Because we are not as good as some others in [playing] theater; industries are not good enough in amassing 10,000 people and walking the streets. But we are learning. At the end of the day it is he who shouts more who attracts more attention. Maybe this is the lesson we should learn.
Does that mean that you would take people to the streets if things would go worse?
Indeed, if the need be. This is not my decision. It is the decision of my board and all members of the Association, but we are all now convinced that if they do not listen to logic, we should find the way in which they will listen to us.
In what time frame would you consider such a step? How long would the problem with the border blockage have to last before you take to the streets?
In actual fact, [let’s] leave alone the Syrian border problem because I don’t know who can solve this problem. I am not so sure that the solution is in this country. But when it comes to the question of diesel particularly, I cannot be at ease with myself and cannot keep my respect for myself if I would leave the situation as it is. We will use everything in the book to make them understand that there cannot be any industrial sector anywhere in the world where every Thursday we have to deal with a new tariff for diesel.
In your opinion, is there a chance for a consensus of all economic and political forces in Lebanon for changing the situation?
Let me be honest with you here. You know the donors. Even if we were all happy with each other and everyone has a big piece of the cheese, this is not going to make our donors satisfied and happy. All the donors are not convinced that we mean what we say and that we are on for a new era and a new economic approach to our problems. I would really say that we ought to prove to them that we mean what we say and that we want to create a country where we take transparency seriously and are going to deal with all the problems we are facing when it comes to corruption. Up until now, the signs are not very encouraging.