Economic growth crashing to 1.3 percent
Lebanon’s real gross domestic product growth for 2011 is expected to be just 1.3 percent, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) latest country report, down from an estimated 7.5 percent in 2010. The EIU attributes the slowdown to national and regional political instability. The report indicates that the country’s economy is subject to shocks in the service sector, which is heavily reliant on political stability. Private consumption is expected to decline when compared to figures from 2007 to 2010 and businesses are predicted to invest less in the growth of their companies. Political instability stunts the government’s contributions to growth, while also hindering the decision-making process with regard to the state’s budget. EIU’s report also predicts average inflation to climb 5.5 percent in both 2011 and 2012, as the prices of oil and food continues to increase.
Israel still hobbling Palestinian workforce
There was little progress related to the condition of workers in Arab territories occupied by Israel, apart from a few improvements on free movement, says the International Labor Organization’s (ILO) annual report. It notes that settlements are the main cause of the amputation of Arab land, the limits on access and movement, territorial disintegration and the depletion of natural resources. Unemployment rates in these areas hit 23.7 percent in 2010, while youth unemployment accounted for 39 percent of that total. According to the report, the sustained blockade of Gaza forces the population to survive on humanitarian aid, while the unofficial “tunnel economy” has become the key driver of the surviving economic activity. According to the report, there are restrictions on Palestinians with residency permits in occupied East Jerusalem, while the destruction of homes and annulment of identification cards persists. Furthermore, the Israeli government extended its subsidized agricultural development in the Jordan Valley while water and land is restricted for Palestinians. Realizing the potential of the Palestinian Fund for Employment and Social Protection, according to the report, must be a priority regarding poverty alleviation, the protection of the unemployed and the securing of practical options for Palestinian workers that depend on work within the settlements. It also urges a review of the wage system and methods of resolving the grievances of Palestinian workers against Israeli employers.
Arabs vote for domestic workers’ rights
The International Labor Organization’s (ILO) convention stipulating that domestic workers have the same essential labor rights as those granted to other workers passed easily last month at the 100th annual ILO conference. The convention was adopted with 396 votes for, 16 against and 63 abstentions. Of the estimated 22 million migrant workers in the Middle East, one third are domestic workers — most of whom are women from Asian and African countries, namely Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Nepal, Indonesia and Ethiopia. Saudi Arabia alone hosts 1.5 million migrant domestic workers, while Lebanon hosts 225,000 and Jordan 77,000. Workers in the these countries are excluded from national labor legislation and social security, and are attached to their patrons through what is called a restraining protection system. Patrons hold their passports and papers, and workers are often not allowed outside the home on their day off. Abstaining delegations included Britain, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Member states will have to present the new labor standards to their national competent authorities for the convention to be ratified.
EMLED’s impact
Relief International’s (RI) three-year local development program Empowering Municipalities through Local Economic Development (EMLED) — or Baladiyat as it’s known locally — came to a close in June. The program operated in conjunction with Beyond Reform & Development and worked with 130 municipalities, 213 local businesses and more than 3,000 citizens. More than 400 jobs in rural Lebanon were created and RI trained approximately 600 municipal officials on local economic development, strategic planning and public private partnerships. RI also trained more than 1,000 people in business, information technology and other skills.
More Lebanese marriages in Cyprus
The Lebanese have been packing for short trips across the water more than ever lately, according to recent figures published by the Cyprus Tourism Organization (CTO). The CTO stated last month that the number of Lebanese arriving to Cyprus increased by 34 percent in 2010 compared to 2009. A total of 20,650 tourists in 2010 came across the water, compared to 15,450 in 2009. Vassilis Theocharides, director of the CTO, stated that a large part of the influx was due to an increasing number of people coming to conduct a civil marriage, which is not possible in Lebanon. “We have noticed a marked increase in incentive trips to Cyprus from the Middle East and India. We also noticed a growing popular trend for ‘marriage tourism’ from Lebanon, where conducting civil marriages in Cyprus is becoming increasingly popular,” he said. The figures also revealed that the average duration of a vacation is 4.2 days, with average spending at $771.75.
Gaza nears 50 percent unemployment
Following Israel’s land, air and sea blockade on the Gaza Strip, unemployment in the besieged area has hit 45.2 percent, according to a United Nations aid agency report released last month. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) uncovered that by the second half of 2010 real salaries had decreased 34.5 percent since the blockade began in June 2006. The apparent change in policy by Cairo to partially open the Rafah crossing on the Egypt-Gaza border last month has done little to alleviated the suffering of Gaza’s 1.5 million residents, given that only a pittance of the tens of thousands of Palestinians applying for a permit to enter Egypt have been granted one, and no commercial traffic has been allowed to cross the border in either direction. UNRWA also reported that Gaza’s working-age population grew by 2 percent in the second half of 2010, thus increasing the urgency for job creation.
Tunisia’s post-revolutionary economic mire
Tunisia’s economic growth rate will hit 1.5 percent in 2011, according to the World Bank’s (WB) “Global Economic Prospects” report released last month. The World Bank’s report indicated that the country’s industrial production dropped by 9 percent during the first quarter of 2011. Moreover, tourist arrivals dropped 45 percent in the first quarter of 2011 compared to the previous year. Making matters worse, Tunisia’s remittance inflows may drop by 2.5 percent during 2011. The report also stated that the interim government took measures to encourage businesses with a $1 billion multi-donor package aimed at helping the economic situation of the country after the revolution. Relatively, however, 1.5 percent growth isn’t bad for a country fresh from a revolution.
Tax-free shopping edges up
Lebanon’s tax-free spending increased 3 percent compared to the same period last year, according to a report on the first five months of 2011 by tax refund service Global Blue. Tax-free spending by United Arab Emirates (UAE) nationals increased 9 percent year-on-year. However, spending by Egyptian and Jordanian visitors dropped 27 percent and 16 percent, respectively, over the covered period. Spending by Saudi Arabian tourists comprised the bulk of the total, constituting one-fifth of all tourist spending, followed by the UAE (12 percent), Kuwait (9 percent) and Syria (8 percent). Of total refunds, 70 percent were in the fashion and clothing sector, while watches accounted for 10 percent and perfume and cosmetics 5 percent. The report also stated that Beirut is still by far the leading city in the country with respect to measurable spending activities, accounting for approximately 85 percent of the total, followed by Metn (11 percent), Keserwan (2 percent) and Baabda (1 percent).
