Global research

Highlights Economic focus United States • As the presidential campaign heats up, both candidates have released broad outlines of their fiscal plans, which would drastically reduce the federal debt during the next decade. The question is, would either candidate blow the surplus? Probably not. Even assuming that federal spending rises faster than the candidates expect, their fiscal goals could still largely be achieved because the economy will probably perform better than they expect. • Both Bush and Gore use the budget baseline developed by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to cost out their respective plans. On that basis, accumulated surpluses over the next decade would total nearly $4.6 trillion, more than enough to pay off the existing $3 .5 trillion federal debt. Roughly half of that sum, $2.4 trillion, reflects the Social Security surplus. • Looking at the candidates’ figures, Gore’s proposals would pay down about $2.8 trillion of federal