Cashing in on conflict

The oil crisis in 1973 saw oil prices quadruple, equivalent today to a jump from $125 to $500 per barrel at late February prices. If Iran is attacked and oil tanker traffic is disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, some 17 million barrels per day (bpd) would be taken off line and the markets would immediately react. Analysts forecast a price spike anywhere from a third (to more than $166 per barrel) to a 100 percent surge (to $250) depending on the scale and length of the conflict.  But what needs to be taken into consideration is current global production, as the markets have been skittish of late. The extent of the markets’ jitters was reflected when the European Union announced oil sanctions on Iran — not implementing them — causing oil prices to rise, to $110 a barrel in January and gained some 15 percent throughout last month on