Misplaced blame

ENAR

For many Lebanese, from government ministers to taxi drivers, the cause of the country’s economic downturn is clear: 1.16 million Syrian refugees. While a population increase of more than 25 percent has certainly strained infrastructure and further challenged the state’s ability to provide basic services, the notion that the refugees are directly responsible for sluggish GDP growth since 2011 simply does not correspond with the facts. Mirroring its regional neighbors, the Lebanese economy began to cool down as large scale, antigovernment protests moved from one Arab country to the next, beginning in Tunisia in late 2010. The uncertainty the so called Arab Spring inspired helped drag Lebanon’s GDP growth down to 2 percent in 2011 from 8 percent in 2010. The Lebanese economy has been in crisis mode since. Since 2011, the country’s exports have consistently decreased, consumer confidence has steadily declined and the inflows of foreign direct investment into