The ghosts of seasons yet to come

The first quarter of 2014 saw tourist arrivals contract by 16.5 percent year on year, to 229,000 visitors. The Ministry of Tourism is preparing a shoe-string campaign to reassure Gulf travelers from this month on that Lebanon is safe for them. Is this news? In a factual sense, yes, but with zero surprise factor. The fact that tourist arrivals declined in the first quarter of 2014 when compared with the first quarter in 2013 is entirely in line with the trend of the past three years, given that in 12 of  the last 13 quarters visitor numbers declined. The only exception was the fourth quarter 2013, when visitor numbers edged up by about 6 percent when compared with the fourth quarter of 2012. If Lebanon’s inbound tourism were an economy in its own right (which it is not), the last three years would qualify as a deep recession. It thus