It was an election campaign colored with glittering posters flooding the country’s streets, countless party political conferences and female candidates campaigning actively on the ground. This is the new Iraq that has exceeded expectations; the Iraq that should see most foreign forces depart from the country in August and be left alone by the end of 2011.
On March 7 the Iraqi parliamentary election saw 6,000 candidates compete for just 325 parliamentary seats. It was contested on the basis of an open-list system which allowed the electorate to vote and elect their own Members of Parliament, giving their vote the decisive impact that has encouraged blocs and parties to think twice about their commitment to the Iraqi population.
Services like electricity and water, jobs and security are the main issues for Iraqis. Who they trust to provide these is not such a simple matter.
“Iraq needs someone able to maintain order and stability on the basis of nationalism” said a woman named Marwa at a Baghdad university. Nationalism (watinyah) was the ever-present factor in this election and, accordingly, was the issue Iraqis believe their representatives need to first embrace before the above services are delivered.
Two men often came up in discussions with Iraqis: Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Ayad Allawi. Unsurprisingly perhaps, it is those very two men who have emerged as victorious in the elections.
The squabble for concessions
Allawi and his Iraqi National Movement (INM) have claimed victory over Prime Minister Maliki’s State of Law coalition, with 91 seats to 89, but the next stage in Iraq’s democratic process could prove to be more challenging and tumultuous than the election itself. With so few seats between the two leading coalitions, it is no simple matter to resolve the issue of which man forms and leads Iraq’s next government.
Iraq has a diverse political system with various blocs and parties. Power depends on the ability to forge alliances with other groups, since a coalition has to garner 163 seats to form a government. Both Maliki and Allawi will, over the coming weeks and months, court the two significant groups: the Kurdistan Alliance, which won 43 seats, and the essentially sectarian coalition of the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which won 70 seats and is dominated by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and the Sadrist bloc.
The leading group within the INA (in terms of seats gained so far) is cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sadrist bloc. The Sadrists are known to dislike Maliki and in 2008 were the target of a Maliki-enforced decision to battle their ‘Mahdi Army’ militia group in Basra, which in the end severely weakened them.
The Sadrists and Allawi, however, also have a distasteful and violent past. As a result, it may all come down to concessions over power and what Maliki and Allawi can offer the Sadrists and, indeed, the Kurds. The Kurds, along with the Sadrists and ISCI, could join forces and seek to oust Maliki from office and have come close to allying together before.
The possibility of disintegration within the INA and the Iraqi National Coalition (INM) of Allawi makes it difficult to predict the forthcoming government, particularly when it is not yet known how many seats individual elements within the various blocs have gained.
“The political parties try to find any issues to talk about so if they lose they can say it’s fraud. To be frank, if one political bloc wins all the others will oppose it. I’m ready for a fight”
The worst is yet to come
Of course, a partnership between Allawi and Maliki would constitute the dream ticket, one that would satisfy Iraq’s neighbors and that would radically transform the internal dynamics of Iraqi politics, since both men constitute representatives of both the Sunni and Shiite communities. Past and personal problems, however, make this unlikely, as well as both men’s desire to assume the premiership.
Although the results are out and Allawi has emerged as the winner, the fact that Maliki came an extremely close second means it will be a tumultuous journey toward the formation of the next government. Do not expect to see it any time soon.
In addition to the coalition building process, which will have to be exhausted, there may also be continued allegations of fraud and the possibility of legal battles that dispute the results, particularly from the losing parties.
Allawi’s INM also persistently warned of widespread fraud, calls echoed by almost every other party (some legitimate, but most may be little more than political posturing). Zoran Trajkovski, the electoral affairs officer at the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), which provides support and technical assistance to Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), said election administration had improved over previous ballots.
“Displaying the results on the wall of each polling station shows great transparency; it couldn’t really be more transparent,” said Trajkovski. “We need to [ensure] the acceptance of the results because that is key to political reconciliation.”
Like Allawi and Maliki, ISCI leader Ammar al-Hakim also raised concerns about the independence of the electoral commission, noting that his party “witnessed problems in the last election, but that was a local government election and we thought it would be better to be patient.”
Hakim was adamant that this time his party would not stand for “any violations or unfair measures.”
But IHEC Chairman Faraj al-Haydari defended the veracity of the results: “The political parties try to find any issues to talk about so if they lose they can say it’s fraud. To be frank, if one political bloc wins all the others will oppose it. I’m ready for a fight.”
Parties have three days after the result is initially released to present evidence of irregularities. These will be investigated and parliament will only sit after the count is ratified by the court, which has around 30 days to do so, according to the constitution. Once the results are ratified, they must be accepted.
Dodging and braving the countless mortar attacks launched on election day, more than 62 percent of all Iraqis cast votes. Democracy has been embraced in Iraq and seems to get stronger with every election.
The hard work starts now, however. As the coalition building process picks up speed, Iraq’s government should be formed over the next two to four months.
