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Fix it and they will come

by Executive Editors
Tourism in Baalbeck may increase after new security measures

The received wisdom goes something like this: Tourism is a mainstay of the Lebanese economy, and the country, rich in history, climate and culture, could attract even more tourists if the stars aligned properly. More tourists would equal more cash inflows, which in turn could help an insolvent government while enriching the average Lebanese person. So, the thinking concludes, let’s fix the sector. The latest report from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) plays nicely into this narrative. Tourism directly accounted for 6.9 percent of GDP in 2013 it claims, and was responsible for 6.7 percent of jobs. Indirect effects were even larger — 19.2 percent of GDP and 18.4 percent of employment — and are set to grow this year, the group forecasts (see “The ghosts of seasons yet to come“). The WTTC’s numbers are hypnotic. They are trumpeted by evangelists of the tourism-as-savior myth, from failed presidential

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1 comment

WTTC May 13, 2014 - 12:53 PM

The author seems to be making some odd claims on our behalf: “The thinking concludes, let’s fix the sector”. We don’t believe that we have made any claims of that sort nor have we disagreed that security needs to improve. But addressing the specific point about the forecast being wrong – there are good reasons for this, namely the security issues mentioned in the article. The forecast may point to growth in 2014 but only to a level almost $1bn lower than in 2011. This is hardly a ridiculous growth outlook or overly optimistic, and it factors in the security issues.

The article also points out that tourism is potentially too large and there are also the usual claims that the sector provides low quality jobs. This can obviously be refuted by pointing out the benefit of what is there and there is no real suggestion that the sector should take a bigger share of the economy – but is clearly an important sector and is likely to remain important. Surely this large sector should be supported?

There needs to be a real attempt, here, to understand what lies behind the numbers.

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