Turkey’s more-off-than-on European Union accession program is moving less and less into a meeting of minds than a series of brief encounters between the immovable and the irresistible. At the beginning of last year, President Abdullah Gul, once a staunch opponent of membership, boldly announced that 2008 would be the year of the EU. That’s far from his sentiments just five years earlier when he opposed joining this “Christian club,” remarking: “Look at a European city, and then look at Istanbul. It’s not a Christian city.” If the president has a new message for 2009, it might be that the dialogue of the deaf between Brussels and Ankara over the past 12 months has silenced the enthusiasts on each side.
A report last month by the International Crisis Group (ICG), an NGO dedicated to resolving conflict, listed recommendations for both sides to salvage the process. In line with the group’s goal of seeking solutions in preference to dwelling upon miseries, it first summarizes the opportunities both Turkey and the EU imperilled by their mutual intransigence. Without progress, Ankara can look forward to “weak reform performance, new tensions between Kurds and Turks, polarization in politics and the potential loss of the principle anchor of this decade’s economic miracle.” Europe’s costs would be longer-term, says the report, citing “less easy access to one of the biggest and fastest growing nearby markets, likely new tensions over Cyprus and loss of leverage that real partnership with Turkey offers in helping to stabilize the Middle East.”
There is another view, illustrated by a glimpse into just a couple of relevant areas. Turkey’s “economic miracle” of the past decade is beginning to unravel anyway, partly because of global external influences and partly because it is running out of momentum. A big contributor to growth has been the car industry, now in need of its own miracle. Domestic sales fell by 57 percent in November over the same period in 2007. The more indicative and less dramatic figure for the first 11 months was still 5.3 percent down. The industry doesn’t expect any improvement this year. Since the biggest export markets in Europe — Germany, France and Britain — are in recession, relief via additional sales there is unlikely as sales losses are presumable.
The car industry is not the only sufferer. Manufacturing was down 10 percent overall in October. Declining domestic demand and shrinking foreign sales will send only two numbers up for sure, the unemployment rate and the trade deficit. Ascension to the EU would make little difference to that scenario. In any case, inflation for 2008, to ring in around 11 percent, is helping rid Turkey of its low-cost-yet-highly-skilled alure for outsourced manufacturing. Some Europeans are now counting not only the numbers of Turkey’s 75 million population but also the costs of doing business there. On the diplomatic front, the ICG sees coolness between Turkey and the EU as failure to maximise Ankara’s role in bringing stability to the Middle East. That too may be exaggerated. For much of last year, Turkey was gaining deserved plaudits for sponsoring proximity talks between Syria and Israel. However, its role was never more than that of a dating agency. A marriage ceremony would require the United States to officiate. Its role in helping calm Lebanese flying feathers was much less significant than Qatar’s. Even Gul’s headline-grabbing presence at a football match in Yerevan is less likely to win favor among the Armenians than, say, the announcement of an inquiry into why Turkish security forces appear to have been photographed embracing a man accused of murdering Armenian editor Hrant Dink in January 2007. If the EU stands accused in Ankara of forever making the entry rules more difficult, then Turkey itself risks a charge of becoming more stubborn. Breakdown is more likely than breakthrough.
Peter Grimsditch is Executive’s Turkey correspondent
