The solid victory of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey’s July 22 elections has stunned many pro-secularists, and given rise to questions over the hold the Ankara establishment (especially the military) may still have in the country. The gamble Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan took in calling early elections seems to have paid off. The reaction from the markets has also been positive, with many hoping for continued economic reform and stability.
The 46.7% of the vote gained by the AKP is enough to see it take 340 of the parliament’s 550 seats — sufficient for a comfortable majority, though not enough for the required two-thirds majority needed to enact constitutional change or elect a president. The party managed to increase its share of the vote by 12.4% over its 2002 results, demonstrating its continued popularity with voters.
Two other parties managed to cross the 10% threshold and take their place in parliament: the center-left Republican Peoples Party (CHP) and the far-right National Action Party (MHP). The CHP, despite improving its vote by 1.5%, will have a smaller number of deputies than in the previous parliament, at 112, while the MHP returned from the political wilderness with 14.3% of the vote, giving it 71 members. The strong showing of independent candidates, especially in the south-east of the country, saw 27 get elected. It is estimated that 23 of these independents will come together under the Democratic Society Party (DTP) umbrella, considered a “pro-Kurdish” grouping (an allegation the party denies). Another well-known independent candidate, former prime minister Mesut Yilmaz, also managed to get elected in his home province of Rize.
The Democrat Party (DP), formed after the failed union between center-right parties the True Path Party (DYP) and Motherland Party (ANAP), did poorly at the polls, getting just 5.4 % and failing to pass the barrage. Its leader, Mehmet Agar, announced his resignation after the poll.
Winners and Losers
The AKP managed to poll strongly across Turkey, being the leading party in all but 13 of 81 provinces, especially in the Central, East and South-East Anatolia regions, and the party even made a strong showing in the Black Sea area. The CHP was limited to its strongholds of Izmir, Mugla and Thrace, while the MHP managed to lead in Icel and Osmaniye in the south of the country. The other 6 provinces where the AKP was not the top party were taken by independents in the Kurdish-dominated south-east.
Other big winners in the elections were female deputies, with 48 being elected — double the number in the previous parliament. The spread of female representatives between the main parties works out as 28 for the AKP, 10 for the CHP, 2 for the MHP and 8 for independent candidates.
One of the female independents elected, Sebahat Tuncel, has been fortunate in receiving parliamentary amnesty for all crimes performed before or during office. Tuncel was placed under arrest in November 2006 under suspicion of membership in the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). She was released from jail days after the election and — as long as a vote to lift her amnesty is not taken by the parliament in the future — will enjoy the fruits of her new status while an elected member. Others will not be as lucky, with 59 deputies from the outgoing house now losing their immunity. The most significant of these is former DP leader Mehmet Agar, who may well face prosecution over his involvement in the 1996 Susurluk scandal, which helped bring to the surface the problem of the “deep state” in Turkey.
Recriminations
Following the poll, there has been much soul-searching on the pro-secular side as to the failure of other mainstream parties to make a dent in the AKP’s continued strong showing.
The military have been blamed in some quarters for sparking a crisis that actually helped to bolster support for the ruling AKP. The military’s “warning” in April appears to have been ignored by most voters, who were more willing to maintain the relative economic and political stability enjoyed during the AKP’s first term of government. As the deputy prime minister, Mehmet Ali Sahin, put it, “The constitution is clear. In Turkey, the politics are made by politicians and not by other institutions.” The AKP sees that the gamble it took in holding early elections has now given it the ability to take on many of the traditional secularist institutions such as the military and judiciary. It looks set to use its majority in parliament and success at the polls to reduce the power of these groupings.
Recriminations over the failure of the CHP to significantly increase its presence in parliament have seen renewed calls for the resignation of its leader, Deniz Baykal. One former party chairman, Hikmet Cetin, reportedly said: “It is not enough for Mr. Baykal to leave the CHP, he has to quit politics for the sake of both the CHP and Turkey.” Baykal responded after 48 hours of silence following the election by stating that, “such calls are a product of the media, which is seeking excitement nowadays.” The CHP-Democrat Left Party (DSP) alliance for the election also looks shaky, with some indicating that the 13 pro-DSP deputies may well leave the 112 strong CHP unity bloc. However, as the DSP would fall short of the 20 representatives needed to form an official parliamentary group, talks of a walk out may well be premature.
Others have blamed the center-right DYP and ANAP for dropping the ball in failing to unite, and thus capture a larger share of the vote from the AKP.
However, few of the opposition parties have pointed to the success of the AKP government over the past four and a half years as the true source of its electoral support. The 7.5% average annual growth experienced since the AKP’s coming to power seems to have gone down well. The markets responded very favorably to the AKP’s victory, with the Istanbul bourse surging to new highs on the day following the election victory. Moody’s, however, chose to keep Turkey’s credit rating at Ba3, citing worries over the upcoming presidential election process.
Whereto next?
One of the first things to go before the parliament will be the selection of a new president. The foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, on July 25 announced his renewed interest in the position, despite the political crisis this sparked which caused the early parliamentary elections. In his announcement, Gul said, “The people have approved my candidacy.” However, there have been calls for a compromise candidate to avoid a fresh political stand-off in the country. Erdogan, though supportive of Gul, said after the election he aimed to resolve the dispute over the presidency without causing further tensions. As to the proposed October 21 referendum on allowing the president to be elected by popular vote, as well as introduce two four-year terms for the post, constitutional law specialists are mulling over whether this has any meaning or not.
Another potential source of controversy, the Supreme Military Council (YAS) meeting in August, is set to be held before parliament convenes and elects a new president. The YAS meeting focuses on the promotion, reassignment and retirement of military officers, as well as the dismissal of those considered to be “reactionary.” As all the decisions will be approved by President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, there will be little AKP interference in the process, despite the committee being chaired by Prime Minister Erdogan, who has in the past expressed his reservations over the process. In economic terms, the government will be looking to restart the temporarily stalled privatization process, and further reforms in line with IMF and EU requirements. The EU accession process will also become a topic of debate in the near future, though with Nicolas Sarkozy of France bolstering skeptics of Turkey’s candidacy, movement will be slow. Other foreign and economic policy issues, such as the PKK in northern Iraq, are likely to take a back seat until after the final political contests are played on the political field. And for Erdogan, it appears to be a game he is winning
