The nomination of Turkey’s foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, as the government candidate for the presidential selection process came as little surprise to those who felt a “compromise” candidate was in order.
However, while many in the political establishment are hoping that his election will proceed smoothly, the past record of Gul and his close association with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan have caused concern for some. The secular establishment in Turkey will not go down without a fight, although this may be exactly what Gul and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are hoping to avoid.
Political expediency
Erdogan’s decision to not stand for the presidency was based on a combination of political expediency as well as popular sentiment. Throughout the months of speculation, the only indication he had given as to who the potential candidate would be was when he declared in February that the next president would be a sitting member of parliament. In effect, Erdogan eliminated the potential for a compromise candidate coming from the judiciary, military or public service. These three institutions are still considered by the government to be unsympathetic to its goals and overly pro-secular, though not universally so. However, while it is easy to paint the political picture as one of a battle between pro-secularists and the conservative AKP over the future direction of Turkey, the picture is slightly more complex.
Almost controls the parliament
While the AKP almost controls the necessary two-thirds majority in parliament needed to elect Gul president in the first two scheduled rounds, set to occur as this article was written, there is no guarantee that the process will run smoothly. The support of the 20 members of the centre-right Motherland Party (ANAP) would be enough to hand Gul the prize, though if they did come to vote with the government they would likely extract a high price. As it stands, most of the members of that political grouping were originally elected to parliament as members of the AKP, including ANAP’s leader Erkan Mumcu. Their distance is not far politically.
The main opposition group in parliament, the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), has threatened to boycott parliament and ask the Constitutional Court to invalidate the election process should a quorum of opposition parties not be present. The CHP’s leader, Deniz Baykal, sees the entire process of electing Gul as the completion of a secret Islamist plot to take over the state and change its secular nature. As he described it, “If Gul is elected and if he keeps his AKP identity, serious obstacles could come from the Constitutional Court before he becomes president.” For the secularist side, the election is far from a forgone conclusion.
Large protests
Opposition groups had also been vocal in their attacks on Erdogan, and held large protests around the country to demonstrate their strength. The largest rally, held in Ankara on April 14, brought together some 500,000 pro-secular activists, and was a strong message aimed at the Erdogan candidacy. In effect, Erdogan demonstrated that he had listened to their opinions, though would still make his own decision in who the next president would be.
Military’s role?
The pro-secular military and its supporters remain a force both Gul and Erdogan need to contend with. The ability of the military to influence affairs has waned under the EU accession process. However, the present coolness on the European front is giving rise to concerns that the military may once again seek to assert its constitutional right as guardians of the secular republic. The unveiling by Nokta weekly magazine of a supposed plot by now retired senior officers to stage a coup in 2004 is a case in point. Although the March 29 article created a political storm in Turkey, the aftermath would appear to reinforce the status quo ante. The magazine has now closed, and rather than charges being filed against the officers involved, the publishers of the magazine are now being charged with “inciting the community to make light of military recruitment.”
Packing public offices
Another worry for the secularists is that with the presidency in the hands of the AKP the party will now have the opportunity to stack public institutions with its supporters. The current president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, has regularly vetoed governmental appointees to senior posts, though with Gul as president Erdogan will be able to nominate whoever he likes. This stacking of public institutions with political appointees has been common in Turkey’s past, as it is an easy way to reward party supporters. The AKP is unlikely to be able to resist the urge.
Another obstacle in the way of Gul being elected president is the veiled status of his wife. The headscarf issue is still a no go area for members of the secular establishment. For the first lady to be veiled may be more than secular supporters can stand. However, for the AKP side this would be a reward for all of the pro-headscarf supporters in its ranks. The AKP is looking to shore up support among its core members, and this could be one way to achieve this.
Powerless president
Although Turkey has at times flirted with creating a more executive presidential style system, especially during times of fractious coalition governments, the relative powerlessness of the president has been maintained. For Erdogan, becoming president and watching all of the coalition building he had done in the past fall apart would have made his status as president meaningless. Equally, Erdogan needed to take into account that despite his parliamentary majority, the AKP was only elected with some 34% of the vote in the previous national elections. In order to maintain the AKP’s dominance in the upcoming election he knew that he needed to be in the engine room of the electoral process rather than isolated in Cankaya Palace.
Payback time
The selection of Gul by Erdogan can also be seen as political pay back for Gul’s service in the past. Following the 2002 election in which Erdogan was unable to stand, Gul took over the premiership, guided through laws that revived Erdogan’s political career, and stood aside and became foreign minister once Erdogan had been elected to parliament. The presidential prize, in this sense, can also be seen as Erdogan’s gift to the ever loyal Gul. However, it could be that very loyalty that most upsets the secular establishment. If Gul does become president, it is this audience that will be watching his actions in office very closely.
Jason J. Nash is head of research at the Oxford Business Group
Jordan’s insurance industry hits a promising note in 2007: But real estate market still drives risk business
Most land developers purchase insurance outside Jordan for projects
As the real estate market continues to drive growth in the Jordanian economy, the insurance industry is reaping the rewards, with growth of approximately 12% in the first three months of 2007. However, with 75% of these revenues being largely generated by the auto and medical insurance sectors, there remain some areas to be addressed by the industry.
Industry growing strong
The data released by the Insurance Commission of Jordan shows an increase in the January gross insurance premiums by 12%, to JOD29.3 million ($41.3 million). Life insurance premiums accounted for JOD3 million ($4.2 million) and general insurance for JOD26 million ($36.6 million). While gross claims increased by 37%, rising to JOD13 million ($18.3 million).
One area of concern for Ra’ed Raimouny, general manager of the Arab German Insurance (AGI), is the real estate sector’s insurance outsourcing, “With all the considerable property development in Jordan, this should be a profitable area for insurers, yet we are not benefiting from it because many are purchasing insurance outside of Jordan.”
Newcomer, DARKOM, is launching a housing loan insurance company in the second quarter of 2007, to provide financing tools, filling a much-needed gap between lender and borrower. The strategy is to offer mortgage insurance that will guarantee the portion of the housing loan, approximately 25% that the bank is unable to cover. DARKOM, which falls under the umbrella of the United Arab Investors Company, believes its method will alleviate some of the pressures brought on by the housing boom.
Life insurance has plenty of headroom
Field experts see room for improvement in other sectors, such as life insurance, which in Jordan accounts for only 14% of the total market income, standing in contrast to the country’s immediate neighbors with 20%-30%, and an astounding 60% in developed economies. The numbers signal a need to explore these untapped sources of wealth in the insurance industry.
A burden and a blessing
Jordan’s insurance industry difficulties are both a burden and a blessing, for where there is demand, such as in life and real estate insurance, there is also opportunity for savvy entrepreneurs like DARKOM, to step up to the plate and offer a solution.
