Home OpinionComment Hariri’s legacy continues


Hariri’s legacy continues

Two years after his assassination, former prime minister still dominates

by Nicholas Blanford

There were few more poignant and telling indicators of the impasse that has befallen Lebanon in the past two years since Rafik Hariri’s assassination than the shuttered shops, restaurants and cafés and empty cobble-stoned streets of the downtown district during this holiday season.

The Solidere-run city center was regarded as the jewel in Hariri’s reconstruction crown, the fulfillment of the former prime minister’s long-standing ambition to restore Beirut’s pre-civil war image as a financial and services entrepot for the Middle East.

But, the legacy Hariri unintentionally bequeathed the nation through his untimely death is not one of a flourishing economy based on tourism and services, but to turn Beirut into the nexus of an ongoing tussle for control of the Middle East, pitting Iran and its allies against the West and its regional partners.

It was clear within hours of the St Valentine’s Day truck bomb that killed Hariri and 22 others in 2005, that Lebanon had been struck by a political earthquake, the shockwaves of which would linger and travel far. His death triggered the mass rallies of the Beirut spring, a cathartic eruption of anger and outrage that led to Syria’s disengagement two months later. The demise of Pax Syriana also meant that Lebanon’s quarreling politicians could no longer resort to the Damascene arbiter, but would have to resolve their own differences.

That inevitably led to deadlock over key issues such as disarming Hizbullah or removing President Emile Lahoud from office. With the Syrians gone, foreign and domestic opponents of Hizbullah redoubled their efforts to have the party disarmed. But, Hizbullah dug in its heels and the party’s new found ally, Nabih Berri, initiated a series of largely futile national dialogue sessions, while Lebanese society became increasingly polarized along sectarian lines.

In the months before his death, Hariri had worked hard on securing a compromise with Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah’s leader, over the group’s weapons. As long as there was no peace with Israel, Hariri would deflect international pressure to disarm Hizbullah, and in exchange Nasrallah would forego any rash actions that could drag Lebanon into a war with Israel. Hariri understood that Hizbullah was strong enough to resist disarming by force or political persuasion. But he hoped that over time as Hizbullah became more firmly enmeshed in Lebanese politics, it would find that its priority lay with the interests of its Shiite constituents and would no longer heed the siren call of Iran’s clerical rulers.

Hariri’s murder shattered that compromise, however, and although his son Saad attempted to kindle the same warm relationship that his father had enjoyed with Nasrallah, high stakes politics intervened.

While the fate of Hizbullah’s arms was of direct interest to Iran, the United Nations commission tracking Hariri’s killers appeared to pose an existential threat to Syria’s rulers. The commission – the first set up by the UN to investigate a political murder – owes its existence chiefly to the US recognizing that the probe had the potential to bring about a regime change in Damascus with nary a protest from the international community.

The initial progress reports suggested that high-level Syrian officials and their Lebanese allies were behind Hariri’s murder and subsequent reports, although less forthcoming, have indicated no significant change of direction.

The stakes are high. The commission’s mandate expires in June and last month the chief investigator said that the probe was reaching a “sensitive stage”. If indictments are issued against senior Syrian figures it could spell the end of the Assad regime. The administration of US President George W. Bush, contending with disaster in Iraq and uninterested in pushing Israel to resume the Middle East peace process, appears to have recognized the importance of Lebanon in shaping the future direction of the region. The Iraq Survey Group’s recommendation to engage with Iran and Syria is being ignored by the White House. Bush appears to be betting on the UN commission accusing senior Syrian officials to help cripple the recalcitrant regime in Damascus, thus saving him the ignominy of having to approach Assad to help sort out Iraq.

If Assad’s top security lieutenants are indicted and the regime falls as a result, with a new Western-friendly administration taking over, it will have serious repercussions for Iran and Hizbullah, Syria’s principal allies in the anti-Western alliance. Syria plays a crucial role as Iran’s only Arab ally and as the geo-strategic linchpin connecting Iran to its Lebanese protégé, Hizbullah.

The anti-Western alliance will inevitably collapse into its constituent parts without the glue binding them that is Syria. Hizbullah will find itself isolated and struggling to resist calls to disarm, and Iran’s ability to project itself on the Arab-Israeli conflict will be weakened. Iraq and the Palestinians will also feel the effect of a change of regime in Iraq.

The events of this year may yet prove that in death Hariri will have had a far greater impact on the Middle East than he ever could have had in life.
 

Nicholas Blanford is a Beirut-based journalist and author of Killing Mr Lebanon: The Assassination of Rafik Al Harriri and its Impact on the Middle East

Support our fight for economic liberty &
the freedom of the entrepreneurial mind
DONATE NOW

Nicholas Blanford


--------------------------------------


View all posts by

You may also like