Iran can only plan for uncertainty

by Gareth Smith December 3, 2011

written by Gareth Smith December 3, 2011

Iran’s rulers, since Pahlavi times, have been attracted by the ‘Big Plan’, and in modern days this is as true as ever. The Islamic Republic’s five-year plans guide its governments, and the current one, for 2010 to 2015, sets an ambitious 8 percent target for annual economic growth and envisaged “eliminating the government’s dependence on oil and gas revenue for current expenditure” by 2015. Clear objectives may inspire confidence but their implementation is not always so easy. Iktisaad Iran (‘Iran Economics’), the leading Tehran business magazine, recently reduced its growth forecast for the current Iranian year (March 2011-March 2012) from 4 percent to 3.1 percent, predicting just 2.5 percent growth in 2012-13. The magazine cited not, as you might expect, United States-led sanctions as the culprit but global uncertainty linked to the Eurozone and the lack of sustained recovery after the 2007-8 world financial crisis. “Contrary to some experts’ opinions,

iran Nuclear

Gareth Smith

Gareth Smith was a distinguished journalist who reported from the Middle East for over two decades. He served as the Financial Times correspondent in Tehran, where he was the chief Iran correspondent from 2003, following his earlier role as Lebanon correspondent. Throughout his career, Smith covered Middle Eastern affairs for leading media outlets, including The Financial Times, The Guardian, and the BBC. He also contributed as an editor to Executive magazine. His work as a freelance journalist in the 1990s, focusing on the politics of Iran and Iraq, paved the way for his appointment at the FT. In 2009, he relocated to the west coast of Ireland, where he balanced freelance journalism with his passion for nature and the land.

Iran can only plan for uncertainty

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