Iraq continues to be embroiled in its messy post-election coalition building process. Domestic rhetoric and behind-the-scenes dealings have been supplemented with visits to regional neighbors, with every man and group naming their price for compromise and cooperation. As expected, this process will likely take longer than the optimistic one to two-month timeline predicted by Iraqi officials, particularly since Iraq’s electoral commission ordered a manual recount of the votes cast in Baghdad province on April 19.
The recount came after complaints from the incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of the Islamic Dawa Party and his State of Law coalition. Ordered by a special elections court, the recount covers 68 seats in the 325-seat parliament and could alter the final result of the poll; especially since Maliki came a close second behind the victor, Ayad Allawi and his Iraqi National Movement (INM), with 89 seats to Allawi’s 91.
Since the March 7 vote, both the INM and State of Law have been courting smaller political blocs and parties in attempts to garner a majority of seats for the purposes of forming a government. Maliki alleges the electronic system of vote counting was unreliable, and any ruling could have a number of implications.
Firstly, many will ask what difference it makes to Maliki since Iraq’s Supreme Court has ruled that it is the largest post-election parliamentary alliance, rather than the largest vote winner in the election, that can form the next government. But a recount that changes the result in Maliki’s favor gives the prime minister a strengthened hand in his push to retain the premiership and have his State of Law coalition lead the next government.
As the largest bloc, State of Law (and indeed Maliki) would redeem the prestige it lost when INM was declared the largest single bloc after the elections, and in such a position State of Law could be more willing to negotiate with INM; that is, Maliki would rather have Allawi and INM play second-fiddle to him (as runners up) than the other way around. Maliki has also recently witnessed internal problems within Dawa itself, with reports suggesting that specific factions within the grouping oppose another Maliki premiership. A recount in Maliki’s favor constitutes a political boost and may temper the tongues of his critics.
The extent to which the recount ruling will adversely impact Iraq’s political process will depend on Allawi’s own reactions to it. The former Iraqi premier has previously contested the jurisdiction and legitimacy of Iraq’s institutions, such as the supreme court, and it will be interesting to see how his coalition will react to any detrimental outcome the recount may bring. What could be dangerous is any subsequent perception on Iraq’s streets that this is yet another attempt to sideline the Sunni voice in politics by Shiite powers, which dominate post-2003 Iraq’s institutions and domestic affairs.
Allawi has indeed warned of pressure that may be brought to bear upon Iraq’s electoral entities, but there is yet to be any significant suggestion that they have succumbed, given that Iraq’s electoral commission, the Independent Higher Electoral Commission (IHEC), refused Maliki’s earlier calls for a manual, nationwide recount.
The United States will be wishing for stability as it prepares to withdraw all combat troops by the end of August, as part of its wider withdrawal plan (recently confirmed as being on schedule by the top US commander in Iraq General Ray Odierno), which should see the US military out of Iraq by the end of 2011. However, uncertainty may already be proving conducive to terrorism, with a series of bombings claiming more than 80 lives in the past month alone.
Of course, a recount may not change anything or even benefit State of Law. Iraqis may welcome the recount if it actually legitimizes the results, even if it does delay the political process, particularly if they trust the voting process driven by IHEC. Many will, however, be concerned about any changes it provides, since Iraq’s political entities are all too capable of just about everything and anything. Both Maliki and Allawi could contest the outcome if it goes against them; Maliki in particular could push for his earlier calls for a recount in other provinces in addition to Baghdad, while Allawi may continue to call into question any potential wavering of Iraq’s electoral entities.
RANJ ALAALDIN is a scholar on Iraq and is published regularly in The Guardian
