Executive Magazine

Ditching diplomacy in Iran

by Gareth Smith January 3, 2012

written by Gareth Smith

The historical parallels are dismal. Iran’s display of a captured United States Sentinel drone sparked painful memories, both of the shooting down of Gary Powers’ U2 spy plane over the Soviet Union in 1960 and of two American helicopters abandoned in an Iranian desert in 1980 while trying to free US hostages held in the Tehran embassy. Both examples speak of the failure — or abandonment — of diplomacy. At their best, diplomats are better than soldiers at defusing potentially dangerous situations. Hence the freezing of relations between Tehran and London should be seen as a new escalation in tension between Iran and the West.

When students stormed the British embassy in November in protest at new sanctions, their actions were vindictive. “They even slashed the paintings,” a British foreign office employee, formerly based in Iran, told me. “What’s the point of that?” There is one painting I remember from my own visits to the embassy. A British ambassador during the 19th-century refused to take off his boots in the Shah’s presence. “I take off my boots only for the Queen of England,” he insisted. Fortunately, a compromise was drawn up in which the ambassador wore outsize socks over his boots — a story told to me by a more recent ambassador who clearly enjoyed the diplomatic ingenuity.

In our own time, politicians seem set on denying diplomats the space for such initiative. The US Congress is even considering legislation to outlaw any contact with Iranian officials without specific presidential approval, while several leading deputies in Iran applauded the students’ actions in trashing the British embassy.

Back in November, as leaks abounded about the negative content of a looming report on Iran from the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s foreign minister, used an old Farsi expression, ‘Marg yek bar, shivan yek bar’, meaning: ‘You die once, you are mourned once’. With a background in nuclear physics, the US-educated Salehi is more of a technocrat than a politician. Evidently frustrated, he may have meant that if the IAEA had incriminating evidence of Iran working on nuclear weapons, then it should publish it. I don’t think he meant that if the US and Israel planned to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, then they should go ahead.

In practice, while the IAEA report led to new sanctions from the US, Britain, the European Union and Canada, it was not sufficient for Russia and China to abandon their calls for renewed diplomacy and instead support increased United Nations sanctions. And in Tehran it was seized on — especially after the pre-launch leaks and hype — as proof of the credibility gap between US claims over the nuclear program and the reality of Iran’s peaceful, civil intentions.

As for the new sanctions, the EU added 180 Iranian officials and entities to a list of those whose assets may be seized, but it remains in doubt whether Europe will ban Iranian oil imports. Canada’s new measures, prohibiting exports to Iran’s energy sector and blocking monetary transactions, are largely symbolic. The UK has banned its financial sector from involvement in Iran, significantly raising the costs for British companies trading there.

As ever, the real damage could come from Washington. New energy measures prohibiting any person, US or foreign, from providing support — defined as annual investment of $20 million or more — to Iran’s petrochemical industry, will have limited effect, as existing measures already prohibit American companies from dealing with the Iranian energy sector and give the administration power to bar from the US market any foreign companies that do. But the US Treasury finding that Iran, including its central bank, is a “jurisdiction of primary money laundering concern”, may encourage greater international wariness over dealings with the country.

Washington’s new sanctions, like many existing ones, are extra-territorial, and hence enforcement by the administration against third parties will involve calculation. The Obama administration is being driven by pressures from congressmen and lobbyists vexed over China’s role in Iran.

But how far to go? While the State Department may now identify more Chinese or other foreign companies as engaged in sanctionable conduct in Iran, it remains to be seen whether Washington will completely dump diplomacy in the dust and bar them from the US market.

GARETH SMYTH has reported from around the Middle East for nearly two decades and was formerly the Financial Times correspondent in Tehran

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Comment

John Newland Redwine

by Executive Staff January 3, 2012

written by Executive Staff

John began working with Executive Magazine in 2007, first as a journalist and then later earning his way into the editor’s chair, before amicably departing his post to pursue further career interests in 2009. In his time here John was a standard bearer for professionalism, integrity and quality, imbuing the office with a sense of kinship through his intense loyalty to his colleagues and his dedication to his work.

Many were the nights when the blistering hours of production would stretch into the morning, and as we closed that next month’s issue and walked wearily out of the office John would inevitably find a smile to greet the morning sun. Rare are those who one can count on so thoroughly that they seem among the forces of nature, so devoid of excuses and frailties. Now, some two years since John left Executive, his indelible mark on the organization remains, as do the friendships that were forged.

Accompanying his professional prowess was a rugged outdoorsman, a man of intellect, easy charm and empathy, a husband dedicated to his amazing wife Irina — whose passport-sized photo John would have always near his hand whenever he wrote — and an adoring father to their newborn baby boy, Winston.

It is with profound sadness that we received the tragic news that our dear friend, who had a contagious passion for climbing, had died in an accident in the mountains. Our thoughts, hearts and prayers are with his family and everyone that had the privilege of knowing this exceptional human being.

John, may you rest in peace.

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Comment

Revolutionary roles for Yemen’s women

by Farea al-Muslimi January 3, 2012

written by Farea al-Muslimi

Yemenis, from the deposed dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh to the angry street protesters, can all agree on one thing: Their country’s women have amazed the world with their extraordinary work during the 2011 uprisings. That recognition reached its zenith when the Nobel committee acknowledged the well-known Yemeni activist Tawakul Karman by awarding her the Peace Prize, along with two Liberians.

Since Saleh signed the Gulf Cooperation Council deal in November, which declares that he will step down next February, Yemenis have debated whether the political revolution is complete and what new political freedoms will emerge. Yet while the outcome of the political revolution is still unclear, the cultural one has brighter prospects. Art has emerged on Yemeni streets, scribbled by angry youths, while poets, singers and rappers have had a newfound impact on society. Even in the middle of ‘Change Square’, where Islamists play Quranic and Islamic songs on stage, musicians and rappers are offered the chance to express themselves. This cultural revolution is definitely more promising than the political one, but is it complete yet?

The question is very difficult to answer as it is still too soon to evaluate such a sociological shift, but there can be little doubt that women’s participation has been more significant than ever before. Women’s role in the street protests and their participation in political discussions have raised hopes that they will finally be granted their political and social rights. The spectacle of tribal leaders praising Karman for her bravery when she was awarded the Nobel Prize was something profoundly new in this conservative society. More importantly, when Hooria Mashhoor, a well-known Yemeni woman, was named speaker of the National Transitional Council, before later becoming Minister of Human Rights, many considered it a real shift in Yemen’s culture. The council consists of some very conservative religious and military leaders, many of whom have consistently resisted women’s empowerment on the basis of religion and culture.

Back in April, President Saleh tried to provoke Yemenis into supporting his regime by condemning the mixing of women and men in ‘Change Square’, calling it an anti-Sharia act. Initially the speech caused controversy, with conservative elements wary of the president’s accusations. The television footage of women peacefully protesting changed some attitudes, but it still did not get rid of the old mindset. Later, groups of Yemeni women burned their veils in the streets as a symbolic action to condemn some of the tribes’ support of Saleh. This sent a strong and very symbolic message to the leaders, partly about their political allegiances but also about their continued support of a patriarchal system.

Saleh’s gamble backfired, with the majority of Yemenis realizing it was a political ploy and many claiming the statement insulted the honor of Yemeni women. That has proved a significant moment; in the future politicians will think twice before using the veil of culture as an excuse to prevent women’s emancipation.

However, these positive trends are possibly too good to be true and some hard questions remain unanswered regarding Yemeni women in politics. What percentage of Yemeni women actually live in cities and participated in the revolution? Are the women in the streets reflective of their rural counterparts, who continue to be deprived of their basic rights? Is engaging in politics really the ultimate aim for Yemeni women? While there has been significant improvements in the political empowerment of Yemeni women, is it comprehensive? Not yet and progress can be frustratingly slow. Three women have now been appointed in the transitional cabinet, only one more than the previous government.

The hope is that Yemen’s women, as in many other Arab countries, are entering a new phase, but there have been false dawns before. If you meet a Yemeni man protesting for more freedom, ask him this simple question, “While you say you are in favor of women protesting in the streets would you support your sister doing the same?” Some confirm that they would be, but too many still answer the question with an awkward smile and a red face.

FAREA AL-MUSLIMI is a Yemeni activist and writer for Almasdar

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Finance

Big bucks for small business

by Maya Sioufi January 3, 2012

written by Maya Sioufi

Riyada Enterprise Development (RED), a member of Abraaj Capital Group, in December launched a $50 million fund in a partnership with Cisco and European Investment Bank, to invest in Lebanese small and medium enterprises (SMEs). This is the largest fund dedicated to Lebanese SMEs and is the latest venture by Abraaj Capital Group — the largest emerging markets-based private equity— aimed at enhancing investment in Middle East and North Africa SMEs. SMEs account for 70 percent of MENA employment and 30 percent of MENA gross domestic product.

“It is a well-known feature of the Lebanese economy that it produces an amazing amount of high-quality and highly talented entrepreneurs, so much so that they end up emigrating and succeed all around the world,” said Tom Speechly, chief executive officer of RED. “The aim of this fund is to encourage Lebanese entrepreneurs to stay in the country.”

The Lebanese SME fund has an eight-year lifespan, with ticket sizes ranging from $1.5 million to $8 million. The aim of the fund is to invest in 10 to 15 growth companies across various sectors within three to four years, by acquiring between 25 and 40 percent of a company’s equity. So far in Lebanon, RED has invested in one company with two in advanced appraisal stages.

With lower economic prospects predicted in Lebanon and uncertainty over the outcome of the uprising in neighboring Syria, the timing of this fund is questionable, but Elie Habib, Lebanon country manager for RED, believes that “it is the best time” to launch. As political transitions occur in the Arab world following the revolutions, there is an increasing interest from the diaspora in coming back. Yet structural issues in Lebanon — such as lack of access to know-how, distribution channels and financing — continue to hinder their return, according to Habib.

When asked if RED considered delaying the launch of the fund to wait for more visibility on the economic and political situation in Lebanon, Habib replied: “RED saw an opportunity in 2007 and decided to launch a fund to tap into the SME opportunity in Lebanon. We are long-term investors, we build cyclicality into our business models and we help companies survive in downturns.”

In Lebanon, SMEs represent a very substantial portion of economic activity. Bankdata and Sofres have recently released a market study on SMEs in Lebanon that estimates the total annual production of around 17,000 SMEs at $4.4 billion with an average annual turnover of $280,000 per company. The study, undertaken in the spring of 2011, reveals that approximately one fourth of the 300 SMEs interviewed have a turnover in excess of $500,000, and more than three quarters have been in business for more than five years. Two thirds of SMEs have seen their turnover grow year-on-year with more than 75 percent witnessing a double-digit growth over the past year.

The fund is committed to $50 million and has so far closed $30 million through investments of $7 million from Cisco, $7 million from the European Investment Bank and the rest from Abraaj Capital. RED aims to raise another $20 million by the end of 2012 from investors attracted by the growth opportunities for Lebanese SMEs. Habib adds that after tapping into the $50 million fund, the long-term strategy is to launch another fund. It is “certainly not the last fund” that will be dedicated to Lebanon, confirms Speechly.

When asked about their competition, Habib argues that it comes from the banking sector, which “can offer financing at attractive rates but does not offer the value added of a private equity.” In the Middle East, venture capital financing is focused on early stage investment, whereas RED is adopting a private equity model, investing in growth companies and undertaking extensive screening and financial modeling, according to Habib. “As far as I am concerned, Berytech, MEVP and a few others are complementary and they are our partners. We don’t compete for the same deals.”

RED is looking to invest in established and growing companies. “We like proven business models where the business has stabilized itself, they’ve found their customers, they’ve got their supply chain worked out and the larger part of their growth is ahead of them,” says Speechly. When asked about his concerns regarding the reluctance of Lebanese companies to cede control, he replies, “We really don’t want control. These are founder-led businesses where we want the founder to continue operating the business as his or her business.” RED wants to grow the business for three to four years and then exit alongside the entrepreneurs, who ideally would start a new business.

In the MENA region, SMEs face three main challenges, according to Speechly. One of these is access to capital, as only 8 percent of bank loans in the MENA region go to SMEs. Speechly does not blame the banks “because a lot of the SMEs are relatively informal and not ready for bank debt. What SMEs really need is equity, longer-term patient capital.” The other challenge is access to best practice: “Everything from sophisticated business practice to new networks, corporate governance and financial reporting,” Speechly adds, although he stresses that this is the least serious concern, due to the accessibility of information. The third issue is access to markets. The MENA region has 350 million consumers, a sizeable market but “the issue is that companies in individual markets don’t necessarily have access to the full market. It is more difficult than it should be to have access to that whole market,” he says.

For the Lebanese fund, the target is for a 30 percent annualized return over the lifetime of the investment. While this may seem ambitious in challenging economic times, it leaves hope that newer financing options are being attracted to Lebanon and companies can rely on more than just their family and friends and the banking sector to fuel their expansion.

CNN chose IXSIR’s winery as one of the greenest buildings in the world

CNN chose IXSIR’s winery in Basbina, Batroun, as one of the greenest buildings in 2011 “that have been recognized not only for their good looks but for their green credentials too.”

The Lebanese winery is the only building in the Middle East and North Africa that was featured on the list. Other cited buildings included the Casa Locarno and Swarovski Headquarters in Switzerland, the Sandal Magna School and Velodrome – one of the venues hosting the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games – in the United Kingdom, and the Livestrong Foundation in the United States.

“This is a design and architectural achievement that raises Lebanon’s profile on the international scene, confirming its high standing in this respect, and reinforcing the world-renowned reputation of Lebanese wine,” said IXSIR’s General Manager Hady Kahale.

An eco-friendly building with sustainability at its heart, IXSIR’s winery won the 2011 Green Good Design Award.

The article underlined the winery’s contemporary concept that restores the traditional Lebanese winemaking process. “Overlooking Basbina in northern Lebanon, this winery combines a restored 400-year-old feudal seigniorial house with a modern-built, green-skinned […] structure,” the authors wrote. “Designed by Raed Abillama Architects, its cellar spaces are buried within the ground as a thermal sponge, creating the needed equilibrium of temperature and humidity.”

Using innovative skylights, the winery maximizes the use of natural light to illuminate the premises. And with its natural reliance on gravity, it respects the integrity of wine making. In addition to rainwater harvesting for irrigation purposes, it recycles all its outputs such as wastewater, and vegetable residue, which is turned into compost.

IXSIR’s winery will be open for the public to enjoy tours and tastings in the spring of 2012.

To learn more about IXSIR, visit IXSIR’s official website www.ixsir.com.lb, or Facebook Page www.facebook.com/ixsir.wine.

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Finance

Merrill Lynch’s 2012 forecasts

by Maya Sioufi January 3, 2012

written by Maya Sioufi

The view for 2012 is cautious rather than catastrophic, according to Bill O’Neill, chief investment officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management. “One of the potentially good news stories in the coming year is a stronger domestic United States economy. The worst-case scenario would be a run on European sovereigns leading to a run on the banking system.” He forecasts 3.7 percent global GDP growth in 2012, down from 3.9 percent in 2011, led by emerging markets.

O’Neill believes that decisions by policymakers will lead the markets in 2012 and he expects central banks to be more aggressive in terms of monetary easing, particularly in the Eurozone, and quantitative easing will become a global phenomenon. He stresses that “Europe needs to see itself increasingly as a single political entity and proper union.”

O’Neill is less compelled to buy into emerging markets than he was in previous years, as he believes that one needs to “dig beneath the surface to some of the sectorial stories”. He expects China to have a “soft landing” in 2012 and grow 8.6 percent down from 9.2 percent in 2011, but O’Neill won’t be buying Chinese equities as he finds more interesting emerging markets ideas elsewhere. He would keep an eye on China’s monetary policy and if it were aggressively eased, he would look to play that by buying into Russia, “despite politics issues and setbacks linked to presidential elections”, or Brazil, “which has been substantially de-rated”.

Regarding the Middle East and North Africa region, O’Neill believes that although it will be affected by the weaker global growth in 2012, the region will be more resilient as it enjoys high oil prices and big investment programs, such as those initiated in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The Arab revolutions have “sensitized governments to the need to enhance social and communication infrastructure and get money out to the population. I think Qatar, Saudi Arabia and to a lesser degree Kuwait are the areas to focus on.”

Looking at Lebanon

On Lebanon, O’Neill is predominantly concerned with the high leverage. He is forecasting 3.8 percent GDP growth in 2012, up from 2.5 percent in 2011 but he warns that there are downside risks to the 2012 figure. O’Neill is concerned about the impact that the turmoil in Syria will have on Lebanon and whether it will also be slapped with sanctions. “What would affect my view on Lebanon in the coming year is… the knock on impact in Syria and the withdrawal of support from European banks and the effect it would have on the real estate sector,” he says.

When asked about investor sentiment, O’Neill’s view of global investor confidence differs from what Tamer Rashad, Head of Middle East wealth management at Merrill Lynch, says is the prevailing sense among MENA investors. O’Neill says global confidence has severely deteriorated. “Investors are worried about the outlook as they are not convinced with the incredible actions taken by policymakers. There is a lot of emphasis on capital preservation. The loss in faith in equity markets is very significant, and will take time to rebuild.” Rashad, on the other hand, tells Executive that, “Interestingly enough, confidence is very high relative to what is happening in Europe and the US. It is very high in the [Gulf Cooperation Council] and we have not seen a lack of confidence or decrease in confidence as a result of what is happening on political scenes across the region. Obviously for investors in Egypt or Tunisia it’s a different thing, but overall in the GCC confidence is very stable.”

As for his top areas of investments, O’Neill stresses on the potential surprise from the US domestic market. For exposure to this potential upside, he recommends the US dollar and large cap quality stocks that enjoy strong cash flows and that are exposed to secular themes such as emerging markets consumers. He favors the technology, consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors. For a more risk-averse investor, he would recommend US investment-grade credit.

He sees limited upside to gold price in the first half of 2012, as he forecasts a price of $1,750 per ounce by June 2012, rising to $2,000 by December 2012. As for the oil price, he forecasts limited change in the first half of 2012 with Brent oil at $112 per barrel by June 2012 and then rising to $126 by December 2012.

For a more long-term investment, he would look to Africa although he acknowledges it is not for the faint-hearted. He likes their improvement in governance from a low base, the young demography with an increasing life expectancy and their access to natural resources.

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Finance

Q&A – Maroun Mourad

by Maya Sioufi January 3, 2012

written by Maya Sioufi

Zurich Financial Services Group (ZFSG), an insurance conglomerate with global reach, has been increasing its activities in the Middle East as part of an expansion strategy focused on emerging markets. Now one-year after the Swiss-based multinational acquired Compagnie Libanaise d’Assurances (CLA), a Beirut-based insurer with licenses in several countries in the Gulf region, Executive sat down with Maroun Mourad, chief executive of ZFSG’s insurance arm in the Middle East.

What is your approach to the Lebanese market? Do you see potential for Zurich here? How much was the local market a consideration in buying CLA, as opposed to acquiring the licenses held by this company regionally?

Lebanon is an important market in its own right. If you look at the Gulf and Levant territory, Lebanon is effectively the third largest market after the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. It closed last year at $1.1 billion and Lebanon also has probably the most progressive and open attitude vis-à-vis insurance, given that penetration stands at over 2.5 percent, versus an overall Arab regional penetration of, grosso modo, one [percent], if not lower. Lebanon is part of the Middle East expansion plan and it so happened that there was a company that is based here and which owns the licenses in the Gulf. But we would have come here anyway. Our entry into the market is part of a much bigger plan for the region and globally.

As you said, the Lebanese insurance market reported $1.1 billion in gross premiums in 2010 but is very fragmented, with more than 50 operational insurance companies. What are your aspirations in terms of local market share and product mix?

We have none in terms of market share, that is predetermined. We don’t come in and say we will grab 5, 10 or 1 percent of the market. In the segments that we like, in the products that we can service and in the areas where we can actually be transparent, fast, easy to deal with, and honest — if we can dominate in that segment [then] we will. We recognize the fact that we are just starting here and we have to approach the opportunity with a bit of humility. There are household names in this market, good companies that have been operating here for some time. But this doesn’t mean that a new entrant with new ideas and top-notch local teams cannot succeed and cannot become one of the leading players. In the markets where we play we want to be as good as, if not better, than the leading local insurer.

Could you specify which segments of the Lebanese market are most interesting to you?

We are still in the process of finalizing our deep market studies, in order to not have one specific segment and miss out on the others that could potentially be areas where we could add value. [We will address a] few areas such as the higher-end affluent personal segment, where definitely the high net-worth area is neglected, not only in Lebanon but in the region. The corporate segment is a very interesting one, because companies have complex risks, they have high-value assets, and they have potentially big liabilities. They need very strong financial security, which is what Zurich can offer here in the market.

Is the high-end segment the most under-served area in the market?

From a claims servicing and proposition point of view, yes. Not just the highest end but in the affluent side of the market as well, there are a lot more things that this market deserves that are not being offered. I will not delve into the details [of what we plan to offer] now.

Insurance is still largely considered a luxury in Middle Eastern markets. Some people have, perhaps wishfully so, predicted that insurance is moving from a luxury consideration toward wider acceptance. Are you seeing evidence that this is happening?

We certainly see the year-on-year growth in the industry. According to the IMF [International Monetary Fund], the Gulf Cooperation Council’s economic growth projections, on a compounded annual growth rate between now and 2016, will be 4.5 percent. The insurance industry is estimated to grow at nearly double that — at 9.5 percent. Does that really mean that penetration will effectively go from 1 to 3 percent so that we are at par with Southeast Asia and Latin America over the next five years? Probably not. A big push should come from compulsory insurance but compulsory insurance is directed at the areas that are most competitive: medical and motor.

…and least profitable?

Yes. Most competitively priced and least profitable. So what we would love to see more of is a combination of compulsory insurance and more awareness through cooperation between non-profit organizations and industry representatives like ACAL [the Lebanese insurance association], the media, publishing houses as well as the industry, be it the distribution side of the industry or the risk-taking side of the industry. The awareness is not there. People probably still look at insurance as an unnecessary expenditure but I am not entirely aware that people do a proper assessment of pros and cons of buying insurance.

Is insurance awareness better in the high-end market versus the general consumer segment?

Awareness is [better] but it is not where it should be. You come across discussions where folks, taking a high-net worth [individual] for example, have a couple of pieces of art, a jewelry collection, and perhaps a few high-end rugs in their house and a lot of these properties are not insured. They should be insured as a financial protection mechanism… This is where insurance, besides being a financial management tool, can be a lifestyle support — if you have a piece of art you probably need to continue to be appraised of its market value. Through our network you can have access to events that talk about these things.

How are you investing yourself into awareness building on the high-end or the general level?

In a lot of ways. We work closely with the regulators in every jurisdiction that we work in, to see which areas we can support. We participate in market studies whenever we are invited; we submit ideas, try to contribute to the publishing houses in terms of [specialized] pieces on insurance or general discussion of insurance.

How strong is awareness in the corporate segment and where do you see a need to enhance awareness in the corporate market?

In the middle market and corporate segment the awareness is there. It could grow faster but it is there for basic products. But even with property insurance, you don’t find that companies always buy [coverage of] business interruption, which is a real risk subsequent to a [catastrophe]. I think a bit more education there would help. Then professional liability; a doctor or lawyer or accountant or auditor may buy life insurance and maybe workers’ compensation for the employees and car insurance for the drivers. But the areas that are crucial, which are professional liability and also general liability, are neglected. Overall, in certain products we see a higher take-up in penetration in the commercial segment where the policy holder is a company rather than an individual. What we don’t find enough of is the higher density per customer.

Meaning companies do not buy different types of insurance beyond what they absolutely have to have?

Exactly. I think if there is increased awareness — even without acquiring new customers, although you have to do this — if there is more density, this would spur growth.

How much financial power is Zurich allocating to the Middle East? Any numbers that you can give our readers?

A lot [of power]. Just take a look: [Zurich has been positioned] in four countries through opening either a [Joint Venture], a greenfield or an acquisition. This is strategically important for us. The acquisition or expansion monies are not the only investments. When you come in, you have to integrate and expand and enhance. We are here for the long-term in multiple countries at the same time. We are pretty invested in the Middle East.

How large is your regional team today?

On the general insurance side we have over 250, including life we have over 350 people.

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Finance

Executive Insight – Master Capital Group

by Henri Chaoul January 3, 2012

written by Henri Chaoul

Europe needs to move from demure to decisive. It is hard for any bystander to rationalize the tepid and timid moves proposed by either the European leaders or the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding their sovereign debt crisis.

While the Americans’ prefered solution to the financial crisis is quantitative easing — flushing the markets with fresh liquidity and injecting capital into the financial institutions — the Europeans want to follow a fundamentally different path: Treating the root cause of the problem rather than its immediate after-effects. The European approach is similar to treating a patient dying from acute asthma with a long-term steroid treatment rather than prescribing a couple of puffs from an inhaler that will keep him alive long enough to see the long-term. Their approach — even if executed and implemented in its utmost detail — will lead to a collapse of financial markets, not only infecting Europe but also having spillover effects throughout the global system.

Peripheral European countries have unacceptably high levels of debt compared to gross domestic product, with that of Greece at more than 160 percent and Italy nearing 120 percent. The weakest links — Greece, Italy and Spain — together have accumulated more than $3.5 trillion in debt. Greece is effectively bankrupt and illiquid, while Italy and Spain are on life support. In its most recent effort to raise debt, and despite historically high yields, the German government was not able to place a third of its issuance last month — a historical first and a testimony to the fact that investors consider all such debt toxic — while, despite frantic calls by the French and the German tandem, the last European Union Summit to tackle the crisis came up horribly short.

Against this very negative landscape, there is still a way out. European leadership needs to act swiftly and decidedly to reignite the confidence of financial markets and address the root causes of the problem.

In the short-term, both the ECB and national governments in Europe need to ensure that liquidity is available in the markets. First and foremost, Italy and Spain need to be “ring-fenced” to stop contagion and enable them to remain solvent and get necessary help to finance their debts at affordable yields. The ECB has a major role to play here by standing as the lender of last resort and effectively guaranteeing all such debts. Second, a serious recapitalization program of the banks is required, similar to the US Troubled Asset Relief Program in 2008. Finally, Europe needs to help Greece through an orderly default of its debt. None of those points can be left to individual nations to decide upon; instead a coordinated and common approach is required.

In the longer-term, Europe needs to deal with the root causes of its paralysis. At the heart of it is the fact that individual nations are clasping to sovereign rights at the expense of the stability and longevity of the Eurozone.

Europe needs to strengthen the monetary union by changing the mandate of the ECB. It cannot act as an independent monetary authority as long as it does not have the financial wherewithal and weapons to deal with the financial crisis without going back to all its member nations. Its mandate has so far been to ensure price stability and nothing else, a purpose deeply rooted in the history of hyperinflation that hit Europe at the end of World War One. But the mandate now needs to reflect the reality of today’s financial markets: Adding an economic growth objective to its line of fire and becoming the lender of last resort thus allow it to instigate programs of quantitative easing without resorting prior authorization from France, Germany and the parliaments of all remaining nations. Second, the European monetary union is facing a serious fiscal dis-union. As long as different Eurozone nations have structurally different fiscal needs and objectives, monetary union will be cracking at the seams. Authority and decision-making will have to move away from Paris, Berlin and Rome towards Frankfurt and Brussels.

The stakes are too high to let the Europeans test whether their long-term approach would work. Decisive actions are needed. They were due yesterday.

HENRI CHAOUL is the general manager of Master Capital Group in Lebanon

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Finance

Executive Insight -Nada Safa

by Nada Safa January 3, 2012

written by Nada Safa

In times of deep uncertainty, we are often overwhelmed with information and use mental shortcuts to arrive at snap decisions and judgements. Sometimes, such assumptions work, but this approach can also lead to biases, errors and confusion, especially when it comes to investment decisions.

A year of indecision

Under ordinary circumstances, the world has time to catch its breath between major news events. The sheer speed at which history happened during 2011, though, created deep market uncertainty, from Japan’s earthquake cum tsunami to a tragic nuclear disaster, from war in Libya to escalating political turmoil across the Middle East and North Africa, from limited concern over weaker Eurozone members to widespread fears of single currency break-up.

Not since the Second World War have investors had to navigate such a barrage of events. Many fell into a trap that rendered their rational capacities useless, with financial markets driven instead by fear, short-termism, stop-losses and political instability. By the third quarter, many had resorted to cash, waiting for a meaningful United States recovery, for eurozone “leadership”, for signs of Middle Eastern entente. We might as well have been “Waiting for Godot”.

The year started relatively well, as markets continued to benefit from the 2010 year-end rally. Investors were looking forward to strong growth in the US and continued buoyancy from the emerging markets. By spring, though, reality was breaking through. America’s recovery was paltry and Western Europe’s largely unforeseen sovereign debt crisis was coming into view. Rapid Asian growth was also stoking inflation.

The response to all three problems was fiscal constraint, which stoked fears of recession in the Western world and culminated in a rather vicious August sell-off, with global markets giving up their year-to-date gains in a single, wicked week. By the end of 2011, investor sentiment had yet to recover with global markets still locked in a deep malaise. As a new year dawns, opinion is divided between adherents of “risk-on” and “risk-off”, with neither side completely convinced, but the more cautious definitely holding sway.

A Japanese tragedy

In December 2010, Goldman Sachs placed Japanese equities in their list of “favorite” 2011 investments with a 12,000 target for the Nikkei, based on a strong macro backdrop. As the world’s third-largest economy was struck by an earthquake and tsunami in March, killing thousands, Asian markets dropped severely and continued their descent amidst ever-worsening news, not least the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Alongside the ghastly human impact, the shutdown of car plants and oil refineries imposed vast economic costs, as global supply chains seized. The Japanese government suggests the bill could ultimately reach an astonishing $320 billion.

Black gold

Despite a sluggish global economy, world oil demand reached 89.3 million barrels per day in 2011, according to the International Energy Agency. That’s an all-time high, up from 84.1 million in 2009 and 76.4 million in 2000. This growth was driven by spiraling Asian consumption. China consumed almost 15 percent more oil in 2011 than in 2010. As the emerging markets continue to grow, and their massive populations adopt more energy-intensive lifestyles, the IEA foresees global crude use of 93.4 million barrels a day by 2015.

In 2011, the price per barrel of Brent crude reached $110, up from an average of $79 in 2010. This was driven by relentless Asian demand and from MENA-based supply concerns fuelled by the Arab uprisings. Libya is still pumping nowhere near the 1.7 million barrels it supplied daily to world markets in 2010.

US deficit

The tortuous negotiations between Congress and the White House over raising the US debt ceiling made the markets take notice of America’s $14 trillion of public debt. The Federal Reserve made the unprecedented announcement that base interest rates would be nailed to the floor until 2013. As the end of 2011 came into view, global markets finally accepted that the US could be in for a much longer period of weaker growth than previously expected.

With a budget deficit standing at 10 percent of gross domestic product, America’s fiscal situation is dire. The Congressional “super committee” seems unable to fulfill its remit of finding $1.2 trillion of spending cuts and new revenues by January 2013. As Uncle Sam’s debt continues to spiral, heading for $18 trillion by 2016, even the seemingly impossible spending cuts may not be enough. For now, as the euro suffers, the dollar looks strong. But America’s fiscal woes will inevitably come back to hurt the markets.

The Eurozone debacle

Throughout much of 2011, the European Central Bank (ECB) took a relatively aggressive interest rate stance, as Germany’s inflation aversion prevailed and higher borrowing costs exacerbated the creeping austerity across the Eurozone. While Greece took center-stage, the other PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) also began to squeal due to their high-debt burdens and spiralling sovereign bond yields. Several member states are effectively insolvent, which suggest default and debt rescheduling is inevitable, something policymakers seem determined not to accept.

As 2011 comes to an end, the PIIGS government yields are reaching new euro-era highs. A previously unthinkable default is threatening the ECB due to the refusal of member states to sufficiently raise the bailout to stop the contagion. The infection of Europe’s “core” (France, Austria, the Netherlands and even Germany) is now a fact, and could spell systemic disaster for the Eurozone.

Golden horizons

Gold maintained a broadly upward trend and crossed the $1,900 level before reversing course. The strength of the gold price has been supported by soaring gold coin sales, America’s debt ceiling debacle and Eurozone worries, together with almost unprecedented gold stockpiling by central banks. The trend has been marked by bumps stemming from margin calls, liquidity constraints, hedge fund liquidation, profit taking and investors’ capitulation.

Popular pennies

Angst about US and European economies led the Swiss franc and the yen to benefit from “safe haven” flows. Strong currencies often are not welcome though. Switzerland’s central bank pegged the Swiss franc at 1.20 to the euro to boost its local economy. The Bank of Japan remains undecided with regards to the yen, leaving it at relatively strong levels.

Persistent pains

As 2011 comes to an end, Europe is in the midst of many changes. Mario Dragi, an Italian banker, replaced Jean Claude Trichet as ECB governor. In Greece, former ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos replaced Georges Papandreou as prime minister; in Italy, having failed to charm parliament due to fiscal problems and a long history of sex scandals, Silvio Berlusconi resigned as prime minister, leaving Mario Monti, an economist, to shoulder Italy’s burden. During the “make or break” Brussels summit in December, Europe’s leaders threw the kitchen sink at the Eurozone conundrum, unveiling a new European Stability Mechanism and promising fiscal union. Yet again, the bond markets remained unimpressed, with many still pricing-in a ‘Eurozone break-up’.

With presidential elections in the US and France in 2012, challenges remain to be tackled whether with new blood or new reforms, but investor sentiment looks set to remain unchanged, with rattled nerves playing havoc with both investor psychology and asset prices.

NADA SAFA is a private banker

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Finance

Lebanese capital markets

by Maya Sioufi January 3, 2012

written by Maya Sioufi

The payment of Lebanon’s $32.6 million share of the annual funding for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon boosted activity on the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) in the latter part of November. The BLOM Stock Index (BSI) climbed by more than 4% during the period to 1,224 points, before retreating to 1,189 points by the end of the fourth week (December 12-16). Hence, the BSI advanced 1.2% from its previous close on November 18, with total losses in 2011 at 19.39%. The daily average volume per month rose more than seven-fold to 513,173 shares, up from 69,186 shares in the preceding four-week period, due largely to 6.8 million shares in Byblos’s common stock being traded on 16 December.

On the regional front, the BSI managed to outperform both the MSCI Emerging Market Index and the S&P Pan Arab Composite LargeMid Cap index. The former fell between November 18 and December 16 by 6.5% to 897 points, reflecting fears over the European debt crisis and signs of economic slowdown in China and South Korea. The S&P index followed suit, retreating 1% to 106 points.

Most banking stocks ended the four week-period in the red, affected by Moody’s Investors Service Outlook‘s downgrade for local banks to ‘negative’ from ‘stable.’ In fact, BLOM’s global depositary receipts lost 2.5% and BEMO common stock retreated by 4.9% to $7.70 and $2.35 respectively. Bank of Beirut stocks followed suit as its common stock declined by 1.3% to $19.20, while its preferred Class D lost 0.4% to $26. Bank Audi stocks also drew back, with its GDR losing 2.3% to $6.29. Its listed stock fell 2.2% to $5.85 and its preferred Class D decreased by 0.5% to $10.30. Byblos common stock was the sole gainer among banking stocks, rising 3% to settle at $1.65.

Solidere stocks A and B, which accounted for around 42% of total value traded, rallied during the first three weeks to hit $16, their highest level since mid-August 2011, before closing at $14.5 each on December 16 with a monthly increase of 6% and 7.5%, respectively.

Within the manufacturing sector, Holcim stock grew 1.5% to $16.15, whereas Ciment Blancs Nominal Class witnessed a single trade of 2,496 shares, lifting its price by 40% to $2.41, its highest level since inception.

January 3, 2012 0 comments

The Buzz

Attack of the killer chickens

by Fernande van Tets January 3, 2012

written by Fernande van Tets

Genetically engineered chickens have become killing machines, invading Dubai, Egypt, Lebanon and the rest of the Arab world. You can only stop them by shooting them and destroying their eggs. Luckily this dystopian nightmare is not coming to a street near you, but is the storyline behind Birdy Nam Nam, an Arabic mobile game which was downloaded more than 250,000 times within a week of its release in September, and ranked number one in the Arab world on the iTunes store.

This is just one example of Lebanese talent tapping into the profitable computer gaming market, which, with a projected annual global growth rate of 12 percent, makes it the largest growth sector of the media industry. Digital games can be played online (on PCs or game consoles) or on mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets. In revenue terms, such games earn $56 billion annually; at least three times as much as the global music industry, which saw revenue decline by 8.4 percent to $15.9 billion last year. In the United States gaming makes $22 billion, which is more than the music ($10.4 billion) and film industry ($9.5 billion) combined.

Despite many obstacles, in terms of knowledge as well as infrastructure, gaming in the Arab world shows huge potential. Demand for local products far outstrips supply; less than 1 percent of content is in Arabic, while over 60 percent of Arab users prefer content in their first language on the Internet, according to the Dubai Press Club’s Arab Media Outlook 2010. “If you do anything in Arabic now, it will work,” says Lebnan Nader, one of Birdy Nam Nam’s creators.

Gaming in the Arab world started in the 1990s, when international fighting games such as Counterstrike and Starcraft drew large crowds at cafes, where people would play on a Local Area Network (LAN) connection.

With the advent of the Internet, games moved online, but the social function of the café remained and the popularity of massive multiplayer online (MMO) games such as World of Warcraft grew. In 2005 Travian Games, a German company, entered the market with an Arabized version of its MMO game Travian. United Arab Emirates-based GamePower7 was the first regional company to try and tap into the market in 2007 by Arabizing the game Rappelz, while Jordanian Quirkat developed the region’s first original MMO game in 2008, with ‘Arabian Lords’ allowing players to be merchants in the time of the rise of Islam.

With mobile and Internet penetration exploding across the Middle East, local entrepreneurs are searching for ways to tap into the opportunity, with the videogame market in the Middle East and Africa set to grow to $3.2 billion by 2016, according to the research company Ovum.

The largest markets are Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE, while companies have been springing up across the region, especially in Jordan where the government has stimulated the sector’s growth through the Jordanian Gaming Task Force.

According to its chairman, Nour Khrais, online and mobile gaming revenues in the Arab world reached about $450 million in 2010, while the overall value of the gaming market in the Arab world, including investments and advertising, exceeds $1 billion. Jordanian companies develop 70 percent of the Arab world’s mobile and online games. In Lebanon, where there are just a handful of companies known to be producing games, with less than 20 released so far, the market is still immature.

Birdie makes a bang

Birdy Nam Nam (BNN), the Lebanon-based company that published the namesake game, credits its success to the use of the Arabic language, emulating international games that have entered the market through ‘Arabizing’ their blockbusters. Wixel Studios, Lebanon’s first gaming company that opened in 2007, scored its greatest success with its first game Douma, a fighting game based on Lebanese politics.

The game has been played online over 2 million times. The three-man company has released 13 titles, including games about a manouche bakery and the Egyptian elections. Falafel Games, a company started in 2010 by three Arab gaming veterans, uses Islam as the theme for their multiplayer online game ‘Knights of Glory’, which is set during the Islamic conquests of 632 to 636. All claim competition is virtually non-existent, with only a handful of regional competitors operating in their field.

Recognizing the opportunities, venture capital funds are starting to show an interest. “Gaming is a segment within technology which requires customization and local product development… The demand is there,” says Walid Mansour of Middle East Venture Partners (MEVP). The fund decided to invest in Falafel Games a few months ago, and is eager to enter the multiplayer online market, projected to be worth $400 million regionally by 2015 — a tenfold increase in five years.

Regional consumers tend to be big spenders; the average revenue per paid user in Saudi Arabia is $50, twice the global average. Most games developed in emerging markets rely on a free-to-play model that sells advertising and, in particular, virtual goods or one-time premium upgrades through micro-transactions. Within Knights of Glory, for example, extra defenses or more sophisticated weaponry can be purchased with virtual gold, which costs real money.

Although the lack of credit card owners in the region poses an obstacle, platforms such as OneCard, Cashu and Gate2Play are overcoming this issue by offering alternative ways of payment. In the West, a subscription model is popular, however this model is struggling in the Middle East as pirated versions of a game are readily available, though often lacking features.

Birdy Nam Nam, for example, was initially released for free, but sales on iTunes alone have garnered $20,000 in revenue, while its creators see the potential as much higher as they continue to monetize their product.

Mobile is the future

Console games still tend to come from big international manufacturers such as Sony and Nintendo, but browser and mobile gaming have opened up the market. The mobile platform shows the most potential regionally, especially with the advent of third generation (3G) Internet.

Of Arabic-speaking mobile Internet users, 85 percent have downloaded apps, with 27 percent downloading more than one per week, according to research published by Spot On Public Relations in January 2011. Of those apps, almost 20 percent are games, with women playing more than men, illustrating how gaming’s target audience has shifted over the past decade with the diversification of games on offer. Social Girl, which allows you to “go on the hottest dates and shop for the trendiest clothes”, is currently one of the most popular apps in Saudi Arabia. With women largely confined to their homes and veiled when in public, it is not hard to imagine why. Furthermore, many mobile games such as ‘Arabic Crossword’ appeal to both sexes.

BNN is looking to keep growing within mobile gaming. In addition to the benefits of a pre-existing end-user market and relatively easy payment methods through SMS, Nader sees two other factors playing a role. First, as the margin on voice calls drops, mobile operators are fighting for customers by offering extra services and unique content such as games. Second, corporate use of games for advertising — for example BMW offering potential customers a virtual test drive in their newest model car — will pick up. “With mobile marketing you can measure your impact; you know how many people are playing,” Nader says. Wixel Studios has already tapped into the advertising market through so-called ‘advergames’ for Kit Kat and Almaza. The latter was a football game that formed the centerpiece of the beer maker’s marketing strategy during the World Cup. Wixel aims to switch from browser-based games to the mobile platform next year.

Representatives for both Wixel and BNN said they aim to expand beyond the Middle East market over the next year, as less than 5 percent of all Internet users are Arabs. They wish to do this by offering unique content to a global audience. But, so far, the key to regional success is producing content that is recognizable to an Arab audience, in terms of landmarks, language or culture. Furthermore, people are immensely proud of locally developed games. “We got many emails saying how proud people were that BNN was created by Lebanese. Some were kind of disappointed to see that there was a French guy on the team,” smiles Jean-Christophe Hoelt, the French developer who wrote the code for BNN.

A lack of human resources?

The need for a French developer highlights one of the main obstacles to creating games in Lebanon; a lack of human resources. “I know that it is hard for people to find somebody, because they want me,” says Hoelt. There are plenty of graphic designers, but not many with sufficient experience to create a complex game. “High tech 3D animation or virtualisation, virtual realities, we cannot do this,” says Elie Boujaoude of Berytech Fund, the other Lebanese venture capital fund with a game company in its portfolio. “But if you stay below that [technological barrier] you can do very well.”

The lack of skilled employees to create a gaming industry is not just a Lebanese concern; the sentiment was echoed in a regional setting at the fourth Dubai World Game Expo conference last month. Falafel Games is based out of Hong Kong due to the availability of coders and artists with an extremely varied set of skills. “I tried Egypt, Jordan, Syria, I just couldn’t find the talent,” explains Vince Ghossoub, Falafel’s Lebanese founder.

Some companies, such as BNN and Wixel, do believe in setting up shop in Lebanon. “Part of our message is to be here. We want to create a success story for Lebanon to convince youngsters that they have the potential to do it here,” says Ziad Feghali of Wixel Studios. Both companies and investors highlight the diversity and creativity of Lebanon’s workforce, which allows it to create games that will resonate with both Western and Middle Eastern audiences.

Feghali hopes to transcend the lack of technical knowledge through in-house training; all three of Wixel’s founders have teaching experience. Birdy Nam Nam also feels that guidance can overcome lack of technical knowledge and is in the process of hiring several Lebanese developers. Ubisoft, one of the world’s largest game developers, just opened offices in the UAE, citing an abundance of raw talent. Notre Dame University in Beirut now runs a game design course, though it is a far cry from a full-fledged degree.

It is the only course in Lebanon since Digipen closed its institute and offices at Holy Spirit University of Kaslik following the 2006 war. All three of Wixel’s founders are graduates. Since then, most of Lebanon’s few game developers learn their skills independently through online tutorials and experimentation.

Stimulating local talent is especially important as developing a game is a continuous process, lasting well beyond the launch date. “Outsourcing everything is not a solution… because you need to respond to customer feedback,” explains MEVP’s Mansour.

“A good game can be played for years,” says Tarek Chehab, formerly on the Lebanese team for the game Counter-Strike. But building such a game, and a corresponding industry, takes time and requires mature investors. “We have the talent, have what it takes, all we need is investment,” says Nader. Such investment would be used to fund the development of new games as well as their marketing. Companies are wary of sharing specifics, but Nader estimates that a team of six people could work for a year and half with a $300,000 to $400,000 investment, with return on investment in a maximum of two years.

Normally, for MEVP to enter a deal, the fund expects a 30 percent yearly return on any investment (which vary between $200,000 to $1.5 million), while Berytech aspires to obtain a four to five times value multiplication over five to six years on its investments of up to $1 million.

“Venture capital firms are looking at the MENA region,” says Nader. “In the near future, this region will be a really good place.”

January 3, 2012 0 comments