Comment

Uprising incomplete

by Jonathan Wright
written by Jonathan Wright

If Arabs used acronyms and abbreviations, Egyptians would be drowning in alphabet soup. With dozens of political parties registered, uniting in a bewildering array of fronts and alliances and then splitting at the last minute as member parties fall out over how to share parliamentary seats, Egyptians will have to navigate their way through a labyrinth of confusing names when they start voting in parliamentary elections on November 28.  As the deadline for nominations loomed, many alliances had still not stabilized and more and more parties decided to stand alone, even at the risk of ending up with few seats. No good opinion polls have come out in recent weeks, but Muslim Brotherhood candidates did perform well in elections for the Doctors’ Syndicate in October, suggesting the movement is still strong in professional middle-class circles.

Political fragmentation is only to be expected after the January uprising opened the floodgates to pluralism; in the first elections in Spain after the death of Francisco Franco, more than 60 parties were on the ballot, though only six of them ended up with more than two percent of the popular vote. In the case of Egypt, other factors have contributed to a widespread sense of uncertainty and an atmosphere conducive to conspiracy theories, especially the indecisive and unimaginative performance by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which has been running the country since President Hosni Mubarak stepped down on February 11.

The generals have alienated liberals and leftists by their law-and-order mentality and their reluctance to adopt the revolutionaries’ agenda, especially on human rights issues such as ending military trials for civilian protesters. The slogan: “The people want to overthrow the field marshal (interim head of state Mohamed Hussein Tantawi)” is common at the dwindling demonstrations. The generals’ refusal to allow an independent external inquiry into the killing of 25 people, mostly Coptic Christian protesters, outside the state television building on October 9, has added to the disenchantment among the politicized elite. Despite overwhelming evidence that armed thugs initiated the attacks on the Christian protesters, leading to deadly clashes between the Christians and the army, the military council has thrown no light on who the thugs might have been or who might have mobilized them. The generals have also done nothing so far to meet demands that members of Mubarak’s disbanded National Democratic Party be disqualified from standing in the elections, despite repeated reports that the military council is about to issue a decree addressing that demand. The NDP’s many opponents naturally suspect the generals have a secret agenda to preserve as much of the old regime as they can.

Even the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups, generally seen as more sympathetic to the generals, have put the military on notice that they must give way to an elected civilian government as soon as possible. The economy is stagnant as tourists and foreign investors stay away, worried by the political instability and the sporadic incidents of civil unrest, which the demoralized police force is unable or unwilling to prevent. Even if the parliamentary elections go smoothly and produce a new cabinet with a popular mandate, the generals plan to stay around until the parliament approves a new constitution and presidential elections take place, possibly in late 2012 or early 2013. Then another battle will loom — over how to subject the military to permanent oversight by civilian politicians who owe the army no special favors. For 60 years the Egyptian military has been immune from scrutiny. Parliament never saw or approved its budget and did not have the authority to investigate its extensive business dealings, which helped to make many generals very wealthy men. The head of state came from within the military establishment and had no incentive to change the system. That will have to change if Egyptians finally have an elected civilian leader who wants to govern the whole country and turn Egypt into a modern democracy.

But as the Turkish example has shown, taming a powerful military with a history of political influence behind the scenes can be the work of a generation. And as in Turkey, perhaps only a popular movement from an Islamist background will be capable of clipping the military’s wings without provoking the generals back into politics.

 

JONATHAN WRIGHT is managing editor of Arab Media and Society

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Economics & Policy

An arbitrary approach to minimum wage

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Few would disagree that the minimum wage in Lebanon needs to increase to help the poorest socio-economic segment of the population better meet the rising cost of living. And while raising the minimum wage in any country would have hints of populist politics involved, the more well-functioning governments around the world would also base their decision, at least in part, on some sort of economic analysis and wider strategy for greater general prosperity and growth. Lebanon, unfortunately, is not one of these well-functioning places. 

As Executive went to print the minimum wage stood at LL500,000 ($330) per month, a level it reached after being hiked by LL200,000 ($132) in 2008; before that the last time the government addressed the minimum wage was in 1996. Last month the cabinet again decided to raise the minimum wage after a last minute deal was struck with the General Labor Confederation (GLC), the country’s largest collective union of workers, on the eve of an October 12 strike where they planned to demand that the minimum wage be raised 250 percent, to LL1,250,000 ($830).

“It’s normal that the unions and syndicates ask for more to get less,” said Jad Chaaban, acting president of the Lebanese Economics Association (LEA).

And less was what they got. In the end the parties agreed to raise the minimum wage by 40 percent, to LL700,000 ($464) per month, for every worker currently earning less than LL1,000,000 ($663) each month. For those making between LL1,000,000 and LL1,800,000 ($1,194) per month, salaries would increase by LL300,000 ($199), as well as raising the transportation allowance from LL8,000 ($5) per day to LL10,000 ($6) and raising the education allowance cap to LL1,500,000 ($995). The adjustments will not be retroactive and are slated to come into effect for the private sector when they are published in the Official Gazette, something that had yet to happen as Executive went to print. For the public sector, any adjustment will require a law to be passed by parliament.

While the decree averted a general strike that Finance Minister Mohamad Safadi claimed would have been used by a “fifth column” to spur riots in the country, everyone from the labor unions to private sector committees cried foul as soon as it was announced. The teachers union held a nation-wide strike on October 19, declaring the decree “humiliating”, stating it was not enough and deriding the upper-end limit of the wage increase. The Secretariat General of Catholic Schools also lashed out from the employers’ side, stating that tuition would be increased by LL1,000,000 ($663) per student if the measure came into effect. Private sector leaders condemned the decision, saying it was not based on economic analysis, declaring they would refuse to apply it. Instead they would wage an “economic protest”, according to Adnan Kassar, head of the Economic Committees, the largest umbrella association of private sector committees. He added, “The problem is not minimum wage… it’s economic policy.”

No growth, no salary

Put into the context of low growth, the proposed increase in minimum wage would spur a period of stagflation (high inflation and unemployment coupled with low growth), according to Neemat Frem, president of the Association of Lebanese Industrialists (ALI) and chief executive officer at Indevco Group, one of Lebanon’s largest industrial employers. While Frem admits the changes would impact only 5 percent of the workers at his company, he says the effects on industrial production, a naturally labor intensive sector, would be “a disaster”.

“In this low growth environment where we are staying for a while, businesses will have to lay off people,” said Nasib Ghobril, head of economic research and analysis at Byblos Bank group.

Charles Arbid, president of the Lebanese Franchise Association (LFA) and owner of the Rectangle Jaune brand, estimated that his costs would increase by 15 to 20 percent as a result of the plans. “The premier effect of this decision will be on the competitive ability of Lebanese production and competitive advantage and the internal market movement that affects the situation of organizations,” he said.

The effect on different sectors is not yet clear as the government still does not have the administrative capability to monitor wage levels, due mainly to a lack of comprehensive research.

“First of all there is no labor survey so there is no basis to request this kind of hike,” said Ghobril. “Then you need an employer survey, an expenditure survey, a new household survey, labor market conditions and wage distribution, none of which are available and from what is available, none have been updated. You cannot automatically ask for something like this when businesses have high operating costs and the economy is slowing down,” he said, stating that a minimum wage of $500 would be “reasonable” if operating costs on businesses, such as electricity and telecommunications, were reduced by the government.

The only indication of the cost of raising the minimum wage on businesses presently is a preliminary study released in September by the actuarial firm Muhanna & Co. The study is based on wage statistics from the National Social Security Fund and “many other databases” according to the company’s managing director, Ibrahim Muhanna. With these statistics its calculations are for a minimum wage increase to LL1,250,000 — what the GLC was initially requesting. That, the report states, would increase average salaries in Lebanon 52 percent, while in the educational and health sectors operating costs — of which labor accounts for about half of the total — would increase as much as 36 percent.

Given that the 250 percent rise in the minimum wage demanded by the GLC was slashed to 40 percent, these kinds of numbers will not become a reality for businesses any time soon. Indeed, Muhanna’s study advises wages be benchmarked to incomes of those who live around the poverty line ($4 per day) and thus reached a conclusion that minimum wage should be raised to around $500 per month, along with subsidies and reforms in water, electricity and public transport, somewhat in line with what was decided by the government.

While the proposed increase may, therefore, be in line with what several experts believe to be a fair wage level, the matter of timing seems to have been disregarded by policy-makers. “Raising the minimum wage reasonably and gradually is fine, and it should be planned ahead,” said Muhanna. “It’s these offshoot raises that create a problem. People don’t have budgets for a 40 percent rise. This is not acceptable.”

No growth, loads of bloat

Last month the finance minister announced that the first six months of the year saw zero economic growth, while his expectation for the end of the year was a figure of around 2 percent. Other organizations have been less optimistic, with growth estimates from the International Monetary Fund and the Economist Intelligence Unit of 1.5 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. Next year many, including the finance minister, predict that growth will rebound to around 4 percent. Where that recovery will come from remains a mystery to many such as Nicolas Chammas, president of the Beirut Traders Association.

“On what basis do they predict growth in 2012? We have to accept that we are in a recession. When you are increasing salaries in a recession you are going to have stagflation, you are going to lose jobs and the non-salary wage earners are going to be cornered which will create political instability,” said Frem. “This is a classical formula to go to hell.”

Indeed, any pay raise will not affect those who are self-employed or work in the informal sector. According to a leaked World Bank labor study obtained by Executive, the informal sector, composed of  “self-employed low-skilled workers” and “informal wage employees” make up 35 percent of the workforce and are automatically ineligible for the wage rise. Another 20 percent of the labor force is categorized as “self-employed high skilled workers,” 11 percent unemployed (versus the 9.2 percent figure posited by the government) and 5 percent classified as employers; none of whom will see any benefit from increased minimum wage. That leaves 29 percent of the workforce — in both the public and private sectors — that would directly benefit.

In the private sector double bookkeeping is rampant because companies have an interest in under-reporting wages so as not to pay more in social security contributions, according to Chaaban. Muhanna believes that if the minimum wage hike is passed as it is, this dodgy bookkeeping will “definitely increase,” as employers refuse to implement the increase.

The main beneficiaries of the increase would thus be workers in Lebanon’s public sector, bloated from its abuse by political leaders as a tool for patronage. This will cost the government at least another $700 million, according to the finance minister last month.

“Today our deficit is around 10 percent of GDP… If all the taxes [in the new budget proposal] are voted for, which it doesn’t seem that they will be, with the salary increase we will go to 12 percent,” said ALI’s Frem, “This is completely crazy.”

The increase in wages in the public sector would raise the total deficit from 29 percent of expenditure to at least 33 percent, supposing that all the increased taxes contained in the 2012 budget proposal are passed by both the cabinet and the parliament, something that has no recent historical precedent. 

“There are dozens of empty posts in the government and instead of consolidating organizational structures, like the private sector does to recruit less, [politicians] are competing amongst each other to recruit their own people,” said Ghobril. “There is no political will to tackle things seriously, [the government] goes straight to taxation and minimum wage and populist approaches.”

Pricey plans

What must also be taken into account is that the latest budget proposal seeks to increase value added tax (VAT) from 10 percent to 12 percent.

“The major problem here is when you increase the indirect tax that is borne by everyone, most probably the effect of the wage increase is wiped out,” said Chaaban. “The solution is to increase taxes on the richest bracket but the current political class will not do it because they don’t have an interest in doing so. They are not going to make a law to tax themselves.”

Increases in wages and VAT automatically also have an inflationary effect, which would eat into growth prospects. The 2012 proposed budget predicts economic expansion of 4 percent with an inflation rate of 5 percent, but that does not factor in the inflationary impact of the wage increase.

“Things will become more expensive, people will consume less and government revenues from VAT will decrease with time,” said Ghobril.

Time to talk

The unscientific manner in which the minimum wage decision was made has prompted many to urge cooler heads to prevail. The Economic Committees stress that they want to open up a dialogue with the government while at the same time threatening to go to the Shura Council, Lebanon’s highest court, to recall the minimum wage decision.

Chammas argues the dialogue should focus on how to spur economic growth and how to increase government support to the private sector in the form of subsidies. The committees countered the government’s minimum wage decision by stating they are willing to raise the minimum wage by the 16 percent official inflation rate published by the Central Administration for Statistics, bringing the total wage level to LL580,000 ($385). That is not likely to appease the labor unions but Chammas also stated that he would be in favor of raising the minimum wage level every year based on inflation.  

For the government’s part, Finance Minister Safadi stated last month there are three conditions to raising the minimum wage: that it is not eaten up by inflation, subsidies must be given to “certain products for certain needy people” and a long-awaited competition law dealing with monopolistic behavior must be issued by parliament.

That, along with exclusive agencies, is something that many business owners who operate in such an environment will be loathe to accept. Chammas, who is the exclusive agent for the Chanel brand, does not believe that businesses should compete with each other over the same brand but rather between brands, as this allows for economies of scale.

Others are more willing to compromise given that they are asking the government to completely rethink their economic policy before raising wages.

“We can’t just think about wages, we need to think about the chronic problems of the Lebanese economy, our competitiveness; we want more than a complete economic policy; we want a new social contract,” said the LFA’s Arbid. “We need all the pending laws such as this to be issued and implemented. When we see that there is seriousness in the way we discuss and an intent to reform the laws, then industry will accommodate and we will start putting things back on the right track.”

If government does accept the private sector’s proposal in principle there will need to be a process by which those who speak on behalf of laborers and employers are selected, not to mention the input of economists. Such an initiative had yet to be announced as Executive went to print and the government itself was split over the issue of funding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, much less discussing wages. The legal battle over the wage issue could take months and so could the political squabbling over the budget in both cabinet and parliament, meaning this issue is not likely to be resolved imminently.

“I want to see a day in Lebanon where politics is at the service of economics and not the other way around,” said Frem. “It just so happens that today the politicians are using very dangerous tools of economic fundamentals in their political games. And this is nothing less than collective suicide.”

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Shooting blind, from the hip

by Yasser Akkaoui
written by Yasser Akkaoui

The current Lebanese government is, in economic terms, as dangerous as a blind man with a loaded gun and an itchy trigger finger.

To date, it has shown little to no leadership in guiding Lebanon’s floundering economy back to prosperity, offering no comprehensive strategy to promote sustainable growth across the different job-creating industries — be they financial, service-related, manufacturing or agricultural. Instead what the government has offered is ill-considered, quick-fix patches. Cabinet’s commitment last month to raise wages for workers in lower income brackets by an arbitrary amount would be in the same category, if it were not also actually counter-productive to the ends it is purportedly trying to meet.   

Let’s be clear: With the rising prices it has become effectively impossible to achieve a decent standard of living earning the current minimum wage. However, the equation for setting the new optimal minimum wage requires knowing a few basic numbers ­— none of which the government has: It has developed no capacity to monitor wage rates or income distribution across the country, has no labor force or household surveys and no employer surveys. In other words the government has no idea what the optimal wage increase would be, and no clue as to the impact of its proposed minimum wage increase on either employees or employers.

Concurrently, since the beginning of this new government’s term, the country has experienced zero economic growth, meaning private sector businesses are already struggling. Forcing them to raise wages 40 percent overnight without offering the prospect of recouping these costs through new growth will result in employee layoffs and employer insolvencies.

This country should not have its major policy decisions taken by shoot-from-the-hip politicians who haven’t the faintest idea what they are aiming at.

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Finance

Rolling out the net of risk management

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Lebanon’s insurance sector is approaching, ever so slowly, a time where global and regional macroeconomic enablers could provide the scale of economics that the industry has been chasing unsuccessfully for at least a decade. 

Driven by the tectonic shift from developed insurance markets into emerging ones, the most optimistic forecasters hope for an increase of about 150 percent in domestic insurance penetration in the coming years, a leap forward in the use of insurance as risk management in financial markets and a surge in Arab and Muslim interest in insurance through social media and networking.     

Scenarios for global insurance migration from saturated developed markets to those less well served are being discussed in the consulting houses trying to plot a future for the industry. A current study by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) on the insurance industry predicts that in 2020 the big changes experienced by the sector in the early 21st century are likely to accelerate further in the next decade. It argues these will bring ‘STEEP’ changes, meaning “Social, Technical, Environmental, Economic and Political”.

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) one is inclined to add demographics to the list of agents of change that could boost the regional insurance industry from its current status as the least successful market in the world, in terms of average spending on insurance.

While the industrialized countries still accounted for 85 percent of global insurance premiums in 2010 — $3.69 trillion versus $650 billion in emerging markets — the double-digit growth outside the industrialized markets has finally made a noticeable dent in that disparity. According to the Sigma report by global reinsurance firm Swiss Re, the share of emerging markets in global premiums last year grew by two full percentage points to 15 percent of worldwide insurance spending.

Yet it is still clear that the entire non-industrialized world is under-insured when compared with the insurance penetration range of between six and 13 percent in individual industrialized countries.

Expressed in total share of gross domestic product, the gap between individual MENA countries and the world average of 6.9 percent spans from four to over six percentage points, depending on which MENA country is reviewed. Lebanon ranks among the leaders in insurance penetration in MENA.

Yet this gap has not drastically diminished in the past decade and other MENA countries have generally recorded only minute annual improvements in insurance penetration. For positive business thinkers, the long-term perspective on being the global insurance laggards cannot but translate into a possible space for growth. The search is on for new opportunities where regional insurers can branch out and balloon their business.

Credit lines and risk management

One very interesting range of activity in times of global turmoil and regionally peaking political risk is credit insurance, yet it must be examined with care. Although a simple sounding term, it can refer to two very different financial safeguards.

The first one, better called consumer or retail credit insurance, describes policies that consumers buy to protect themselves against the eventuality of defaulting on payments for their Bahaman vacation loan, or for the 144-piece Louis XIV-style Christofle silverware they bought on the eve of the latest financial crisis in 72 installments of $700 each.

The second one, which is specified as trade or business credit insurance, is a risk management cover that a trading, manufacturing or services company obtains to insure receivables from its business partners.

What both credit insurance variants have in common is that they are extremely hard to find in the MENA.

“We are most probably the only private entity in Lebanon and the Middle East that does the business we do,” says Karim Nasrallah, general manager of the Lebanese Credit Insurer (LCI), a Beirut-based trade credit insurance specialist whose policies are tailored to cover international and domestic receivables for mainly MENA-based, corporate clients with invoice periods extending up to six months.

According to other senior Lebanese insurance managers, the coverage of credit risk is an activity for very few specialists. “The market of credit insurance can show growth but the actors are very rare and they are very specialized people,” Elie Nasnas, general manager of AXA Middle East Insurance, tells Executive.

In his view, trade credit insurance growth would not lead to a wide increase in the commodity most sought-after by the local insurance community — insurance awareness among the customer base. For Nasnas, “The people targeted by credit insurance are already tuned in to insurance. It might generate some business but it won’t spread insurance awareness.”

Credit insurance is a field where established companies focusing on the provision of general insurance services will not easily find opportunities, agrees Max Zaccar, chairman and general manager of Commercial Insurance. Before advanced insurance and risk management products can be viable in the Lebanese market, Zaccar believes the companies must first obtain the standard covers that they are often dodging today, in areas such as liability or other employee-related insurance.

Such experience-based reservations reflect the fact that financial insurance and other sophisticated insurance products have long faced hurdles of viability in the small Lebanese market.

The reservations do not imply that ideas such as consumer credit insurance should be written off here. Yet before insurance for retail credit contracts and other financing agreements can be considered a serious tool for protection against individual or business bankruptcy, changes will have to be implemented in a number of areas.

Firstly on the legislative and regulatory side of banking, credit check and consumer protection will have to be brought up to international standards. Secondly, changes must occur in the mindsets and expectations of business people, consumers and consumer advocates, by way of embedding awareness that an insurance contract is mutually based on the insurer’s diligence in servicing his policy obligations and the insured’s prudent efforts to avoid careless or even reckless handling of risks.    

According to Nasrallah, the business of trade credit insurance, while admittedly a niche product, has yielded excellent performances in the past three to four years. He tells Executive that LCI has been growing annually at percentage rates in the high double digits over the past three years, including a doubling of results from 2009 to 2010.

Therefore LCI’s exposure to risk has been increasing but it is not a reason to worry the insurer whose business it is to accept and manage corporate risk. “Any day when I go to sleep at night I go to bed with about $350 million to $360 million at risk, which represents a turnover of almost $1 billion a year so far,” says Nasrallah. “We have risks in Syria, in Jordan, in Egypt and all what has been happening [in the region] has not really contributed to diminishing our risk appetite; however, we use a little more caution in the distribution of our insurance capacity.”

Buying trade credit insurance carries a relatively low cost but enables a manufacturer or trader to manage the risk of having to achieve new sales equal to a multiple of the profit that he foregoes when a buyer defaults. While corporations are more likely to use trade credit insurance than small firms or startups, Nasrallah thinks the service is neglected by corporations in the MENA.

“Credit insurance is a very interesting branch and the main obstacle to developing this branch is the lack of awareness,” he says, adding, “The awareness that we have to create is about the added value of credit insurance not only as a protection of receivables but also as a management and marketing tool.”

A handful of government-sponsored export credit agencies exist in the region and offer insurance backing for trade and investment deals that meet their usually narrow requirements. However, the risk management potential of this and other financial insurance specialty lines is hampered rather severely by the lack of focus on risk management in the region’s business community. According to surveys over the past five years, large numbers of corporate decision-makers regard insurance as a necessary evil more than as logical investment.    

An Arab insurance spring?

Looking further into the future for regional insurance companies, the shift from developed to emerging markets is highly probable. However, the shift of global insurance markets could happen in many ways, and those companies who want to benefit from new opportunities will have to be nimble and open to what could be some very specific concepts that turn their relations with customers upside-down.

In the PwC ‘Insurance 2020’ scenario paper, options for development in the next 10 years include the politico-economic consequences of a global downturn and a global recovery spearheaded by emerging markets. In other words, everything could happen, but in PwC’s view, today’s insurance companies will be strongly affected in at least three areas over the next few years and will need to adjust or wholly revamp their business models, their value chains and their talent management.

On the technical side, one PwC scenario postulates a shift of economic decision-making towards the customer, “with virtual social networks acting as trusted networks for insurance purchase or self-insurance.”

This suggests new realities in insurance marketing, realities that must benefit from the ideas and tools which the “Arab Spring” has come to be associated with. At a conference for Arab insurance brokers, held at the end of last month in Beirut, a youthful local insurance industry manager spoke about the idea.

According to Roger Zaccar, marketing manager of Lebanon’s Commercial Insurance, social media should have a marketing role for insurance in Arab countries and enable insurance providers, “…to understand what the consumer needs. Social media should act as a bridge between the insurance company and the consumers. It is a tool that gives consumers a voice and we are not listening. As insurance companies and banks we are not as active as we should be in social media,” he says.

As he presented the concept of social media as a crucial element in the interaction of insurance companies and clients, Taghreed Yehia, an equally youthful Egyptian insurance advisor, becomes enthused. “I have started to use interactive media because this makes the client open up and be more open-minded to communicate with the insurance company or broker freely and tell his opinions in a free way that can also make us reply in a free way that satisfies the client.”

In Yehia’s view, using social media will reduce fear barriers among the region’s insurance customers who have been turned off by pushy sellers. Yet she also warns that awareness of social networking “is not yet present in insurance companies. I started developing a personal interactive website and am going to publish this website shortly, aiming, inshallah, to have good responses from my clients. Most of my personal clients are waiting for such social media because it facilitates the communication between us.”

It is no surprise that the next generation of leaders in Arab insurance companies are excited about the potential for social networking in the industry. But it also begs the question on how much time will have to pass before an Arab insurance spring will see the light of day. For the moment at least, insurance companies in Lebanon — many of which 10 years ago said they embraced the idea of using online channels for insurance marketing — seem to have turned their online channels to low maintenance, as there is not a ‘tweet’ or Facebook link to be seen on many a provider’s website.

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Syria fires on a fickle border

by Nicholas Blanford
written by Nicholas Blanford

Nasri Khoury, the long-serving head of the Lebanese-Syrian Higher Council, may have been a tad hasty in stating last month that the Syrian army “has not made any incursions onto Lebanese territory” and that the town of Arsal in the eastern Bekaa might in fact be in Syria rather than Lebanon.

First of all, despite the declared withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon in April 2005, there remains a large number of Syrian troops in the hills south of Deir Al Ashayer and east of Kfar Qouk in the district of Western Bekaa. The locations of these Syrian military positions are clearly visible on Google Earth. The United Nations team charged with confirming the withdrawal of Syrian troops noted in its May 2005 report that there was a discrepancy over the delineation of the Lebanon-Syria border south of Deir Al Ashayer.

“As a result, the team was unable to verify whether the Syrian military unit in the Deir Al Ashayer area was in Syrian or Lebanese territory,” the report concluded.

Days before the UN issued its report, I was invited by a congenial Syrian officer onto the battalion-sized army base at Deir Al Ashayer to examine his military map to prove his contention that the location was inside Syria. According to his map we were indeed some 150 meters inside Syrian territory.

But Lebanese army maps, standard international maps of Lebanon and the claims of Deir Al Ashayer’s residents placed the officer and his men approximately one kilometer inside Lebanon. The issue has never been resolved between Beirut and Damascus, so the Syrian troops remain billeted in the hills between Deir Al Ashayer and Kfar Qouk and Lebanese army checkpoints prevent anyone going too close to the area.

Khoury’s other contention — that Arsal lies inside Syria — is manifestly incorrect. Arsal lies approximately 15 kilometers west of the border. The border in this remote tract of the frontier is supposed to follow the watershed of the Anti-Lebanon Mountains. However, the border east of Arsal has long been a zone of confrontation between Lebanese and Syrian farmers, the latter having encroached onto Lebanese territory to grow orchards of apricots and almonds on the barren western slopes of the mountains.

In early October, Syrian troops probed up to five kilometers into Lebanese territory east of Arsal, according to local residents. One Syrian was killed and a building attacked during the cross-border forays. On a recent trip to Arsal, I could go no further east than the isolated farmsteads five kilometers short of the border because local residents said it was too dangerous due to the Syrian soldiers in the area.

The residents believe that the incursions are due to Syrian concerns that arms are being smuggled from Lebanon through the rugged mountains into Syria. Certainly, the Sunni residents of Arsal do not disguise their hostility toward the regime of Bashar al-Assad and support for the opposition protest movement. Furthermore, smuggling is a way of life for Arsal, like many other villages along the eastern border. But smuggling goods — be it diesel, cement or weapons — across this section of the border is only really possible with the cooperation of both Lebanese and Syrian parties. The barren nature of the terrain east of Arsal and the long distances involved (unlike the northern border where a 10-second stroll through the ankle-deep water of the Kabir River takes you from one country to the other) would make smuggling hazardous if Syria chose to seal the border and deploy troops.

The crackdown by Syrian security forces in mid-October in the area south of Homs, 30 kilometers north of the border with Lebanon, gave rise to further reports of cross-border incursions, this time in the Qaa Projects near the Qaa-Jusiyah frontier crossing, a Sunni-populated area where sympathies for the Syrian opposition run deep.

Anecdotally at least, arms smuggling from Lebanon to Syria is increasing, although it still appears to be on an individual basis rather than a more organized transfer of arms. The bulk of the smuggling occurs in Sunni-populated areas along the border, the north in particular. The escalating arms smuggling and the porosity of an ill-defined border suggest that Syrian army incursions into Lebanon will continue as the uprising in Syria intensifies and grows more violent.

 

NICHOLAS BLANFORD is the Beirut-based correspondent for The Christian Science Monitor and The Times of London. His book “Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel” was published by Random House in October

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Finance

Executive Insight – New rules for a new environment

by Michel al-Absi
written by Michel al-Absi

The Great Recession of 2008 led to a meltdown in both credit and equity markets and the collapse of massive financial institutions, chief among them being Lehman Brothers. Governments had to intervene in order to avoid a complete meltdown of the global financial system — what many referred to as ‘the end of the world’ — but the sense of security and stability this allowed was a temporary veneer which is now quickly evaporating to reveal that the crisis is still boiling.

The great economies of the world are suffering from grave fiscal and structural imbalances with no long-term remedy apparent.

The United States economy is struggling, and the S&P’s downgrade of America’s once coveted AAA credit rating highlights the uncertainty surrounding whether Washington will be able to find a solution to its enormous fiscal challenges. The $787 billion economic stimulus package, passed in February 2009, did not have the desired outcome of a sustained boost in the economy, while the gridlock in government resulting from the power struggle between Republicans and Democrats is only becoming more entrenched the closer we get to the US presidential elections in 2012. These harbingers of misfortune — insufficient fiscal policies, political conflict, a raised debt ceiling and the downgrade — are undeniably pressuring the US dollar, once regarded as the most solid of shelters in times of crisis.

The Eurozone also faces a severe debt crisis, with several members having their credit ratings battered, while European policymakers are being forced to intervene to protect banks from collapsing as a result of their exposure to the debt of vulnerable countries within the union. 

Greece is on the edge of default; while many would argue that this will not occur, the sheer possibility that it might default is significantly pressuring the Eurozone. Italy, the Eurozone’s third largest economy, has the third largest sovereign debt market in the world. Just to put things into perspective, Italy has $2.6 trillion of sovereign debt outstanding and there is only $350 billion left in the European Financial Stability Facility — the euro rescue package. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it is tightening the amount of government bonds it purchases. Expressions of hope that a permanent solution is in sight are ubiquitously absent.

The ECB’s strict conditions on a bail-out, its increase in idle cash — due to cautious banks refusing to lend to each other — and the possibility of a sovereign (Greek) default are creating a great deal of uncertainty in the Eurozone. A default in the Eurozone would be catastrophic to anyone exposed to European banks holding government bonds, and thus a significant blow to any hopes for a recovery of the global economy.

It stands to reason that in the current geopolitical climate, investing is becoming an increasingly unnerving venture, with trustworthy investments scarce and safe havens almost nonexistent. Even gold’s volatility and constant price fluctuations are pushing risk-averse investors to question its safety. Gold hit a high of $1,921/ounce on September 6, 2011, and within a period of three weeks fell sharply to $1,532/ounce.

Many major economies are suffering from anemic growth, corporations are still struggling, overall bank profitability is decreasing, money supply in Europe may come to a halt, a major default is not farfetched and the traditional safe havens are being stripped of their security. The dominant currencies of the world are battling each other on who is weaker rather than stronger. As investors, we find ourselves with no truly safe grounds for our investments, but the rise in uncertainty has led to an increase in volatility, a heaven for speculators. The current environment is favorable for investors willing to take risks. The rules of the game have changed, and so should the investor.

Amidst the turmoil and confusion lies an opportunity in disguise: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful,” is the famous advice of Warren Buffet; and these are indeed fearful times.

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The Buzz

Revolution’s next level

by Sarah Lynch
written by Sarah Lynch

"Since February 11, Tahrir has been taken to the factories,” says workers’ rights activist and blogger Hossam al-Hamalawy. “The barometer for progress has been [thought of as] how many people gather in Tahrir, but that’s not true. The labor strikes that have taken place after former president Hosni Mubarak’s fall are phase two of the revolution.” 

Egypt has witnessed more than 120 different labor strikes since March this year, according to data from the Egyptian non-governmental organization (NGO) Awlad El Ard Association for Human Rights. This is in addition to over 490 sit-ins, demonstrations and protests. Experts estimate that roughly half a million workers participated in strikes in August and September alone.

The current wave of labor actions found its roots in December 2006, when the nation’s center of textile production in the industrial city of Mahalla El Kubra saw an outbreak of wildcat strikes. These protests in many ways helped pave the way for this year’s 18-day uprising and its perceived success after workers took to the streets during the final days of the revolution, ensuring Mubarak’s dethroning.

Unions unquelled

Labor agitation escalated in mid-September, most significantly when tens of thousands of teachers descended on downtown Cairo as part of a larger strike calling for increased wages. That same week, hundreds of thousands of doctors, nurses and health technicians walked out of public hospitals, while transportation networks ground to a crawl when workers from 25 bus depots across Greater Cairo staged a partial strike.

“The organization and awareness of workers is in itself outstanding,” says labor activist and journalist Moustafa Basyouni. “I think in the future, these workers will lead the way to change.”

Egypt’s labor force is more than 25 million people and worker protests have affected all sectors of the economy, most occurring in the public sector. Acting government officials eventually negotiated with teachers and transport workers. However, other strikers have been completely ignored.

“It just depends on the power of the strike,” says Hamalawy. “Look at the aviation workers; you can’t mess with them. They brought Cairo to a halt.” When air traffic controllers went on partial strike in early October, hundreds of flights were delayed and travelers stranded, forcing officials to address their concerns.

In what human rights activists consider among the more troubling responses to the strikes, workers have been arrested and tried in military courts. Many cite the authorities’ failure to address workers’ concerns in a consistent manner as an obstruction to a return to normalcy, wreaking havoc on the economy.

The government’s projected 3.5 percent economic growth rate for 2011-2012 is unrealistic given the unstable political and social environment, according to Magda Kandil of the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies.

“We know that growth rate has slowed to 1.8 percent,” she says, “and I’m not confident at this point that it’s back on track. The private sector remains at a standstill and foreign investors are concerned [about financial risk], so they’ve scaled down involvement.”

“The military is not dealing well with the labor strike movement,” she adds, referring to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the ruling junta that rose to power following Mubarak’s ousting.

“I think the frustration in the labor movement reflects [the fact] that many people are not happy,” says Kandil. “The best thing the ruling council can do is ensure a swift transition.” Parliamentary elections are slated to begin on November 28, but SCAF says it will retain power until a new president is elected, with this ballot now expected as late as 2013.

SCAF’s bludgeon of ‘justice’

Within the confines of a military prison, Khamis Mohammad was stripped and beaten brutally. “I was treated as an enemy of the country, as if I was the reason for the poor economy,” says the young Egyptian who is one of many arrested on charges of public assembly in violation of an anti-strike law.

After being plucked from a 200-man sit-in outside Cairo’s petroleum ministry, Mohammad remained in a dingy jail cell for weeks until he was given a one-year suspended sentence by a military — not civilian — court. Such trials are just one aspect of post-revolution governance by the ruling military council that human rights organizations claim undermine a smooth transition to democracy.

“Military trials are a way of intimidating the opposition and are counter-revolutionary by nature,” says Shahira Abu Leil of the human rights group No Military Trials for Civilians. “The revolution was about freedom of expression and free speech. And the military has tried people who were exercising these rights.”

“SCAF is doing this because it’s a way to put people back into a disciplined state,” she adds.

Some 12,000 Egyptians have appeared before military courts since the start of the revolution; roughly 8,000 remain in prison and 4,000 have been released, according to Abu Leil. Courts have acquitted 795 of the total number of cases, equating to a conviction rate of 93 percent, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in a September 2011 report; 1,836 individuals, like Mohammad, were released on suspended sentences.

“The judges are in a clear hierarchy, so one of the concerns we’ve had with the military justice system is there have been cases of clear political instruction,” says Heba Morayef of HRW. “In your average [civilian] courts judges make independent decisions, but in these cases SCAF is making the decisions.”

The ruling council has held their ground on the judicial system refusing calls to end military tribunals, citing increased crime rates and the need to prosecute baltageya — or thugs — who have been on the prowl since the January uprising.

“Military trials are easy and efficient,” Morayef says. The average length of each trial is between twenty and forty minutes and civilians are sometimes tried and sentenced in groups. “But decisions are often not based on proper examination of the evidence,” she argues.

The number of civilians subjected to military tribunals since the ruling council rose to power on February 11 exceeds the total number of people tried this way under Mubarak’s 30-year rule. Those convicted range from laborers to activists, such as blogger Maikel Nabil who went on a hunger strike after being sentenced to three years in jail for “spreading false information” and “insulting the military establishment”.

In early October, seven demonstrators were plucked from a protest in the Nile Delta city of Shabin El Koom while demanding improved factory conditions and increased job stability for workers at the Turkish textile company, Mega Textile. Those arrested were given 15-day jail sentences while investigations took place, an act allowed under Egypt’s Emergency Law.

“This needs to be changed because the people are considered guilty until they’re proven innocent,” says Egyptian lawyer Mohammad Hassan as he stands among a group of workers in the city.

Egypt’s widely reviled Emergency Law has long been a hot-button issue for activists because it gives the military government the right to detain people without charge and criminalize mass gatherings. Emergency law was to expire at the end of September but was renewed following a violent attack on the Israeli Embassy in Cairo.

“The recent crackdown is on political protests, labor protests,” HRW’s Morayef says, “and from a freedom of assembly standpoint, that’s very serious.”

SCAF is refusing to repeal emergency law despite requests not only by enraged activists but also by the Obama administration. United States Defense Secretary Leon Panetta raised concerns about the Emergency Law while visiting Egypt in October, and US President Barack Obama is urging Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi to repeal the action and put an end to military trials. As part of the widening crackdown, SCAF has placed a firmer grip on civil society, restricted press freedoms and carried out arbitrary arrests — all characteristics of Mubarak’s regime.

The Egyptian cabinet announced in September that more than 30 Egyptian NGOs are being investigated for receiving foreign funding without being properly registered. Should these groups be found guilty of “treason”, Egypt’s human rights network could effectively be shut down.

Silencing the press

Additionally, the military council is censoring media following months of relative press freedom. In mid September, plainclothes police  stormed the offices of Al Jazeera’s Mubasher Misr Channel , taking equipment and rouging up staff. Two weeks later, an edition of the weekly Sawt Al Umma and the daily Rose Al Youssef were prevented from going to print allegedly over controversial stories. In a subtler form of censorship, a writer at a popular Cairo-based magazine says management was told specifically not to write articles that criticize the military, or they would face punishment.

Most severely, military forces clashed with civilians on October 9 during a demonstration by Coptic Christians, leaving 24 dead and hundreds injured. The same evening, the US-funded Al Hurra television station was raided by military forces brandishing automatic weapons. Telephone, electricity and Internet services were also cut to one of Egypt’s leading newspapers, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

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Finance

Executive Insight – Rise of the Chief Risk Officer

by Shane Phillips
written by Shane Phillips

Revolutions, rogue traders and roller coaster markets have one thing in common: They make risk professionals fashionable. While the fourth quarter of 2011 will see bloodletting in the front offices of many high street banks, risk professionals will sit comfortably and benefit from what is now being coined as “The Rise of the Chief Risk Officer (CRO)”. 

As globalization gathered steam in the early 1990s, corporations began to realize that managing their downside had a huge upside and so began to anoint executives with the remit of ensuring their organizations had the appropriate risk controls. This innovation has taken hold of the global corporate community with breathtaking speed. In 1993 James Lam was hired by GE Capital as the world’s first CRO. Since then the role has spread to all four corners of the earth, across industries and sectors, and is now being considered the fourth C in the C-suite.

Risk has experienced explosive growth over the last 10 years. In 2000 only 45 percent of financial services companies had a CRO, now more than 80 percent do. Companies are hiring risk professionals both vertically and horizontally throughout the organization. 

Risk teams were first assigned to cover critical areas such as liquidity risk, market risk and credit risk. Since then the spectrum has broadened and today risk teams deal with operational risk, enterprise risk, industry risk, investment risk, political risk and many others. In fact new areas of risk are probably being created as you read this article. 

This translates into an ever-growing demand for risk professionals in every world region, including the Middle East. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) we have seen a steady increase in the number of CROs on the ground, with most high street banks having one for each country, where previously there was one for the region. In 2000 there were less than 20 CROs based in the United Arab Emirates, whilst today there are more than 100. 

Culture clash

Unfortunately it is not enough that organizations hire risk professionals and create risk policies and procedures. Most organizations had risk professionals among their staff in 2006 and 2007. When the financial crisis struck, the problem was that they did not have risk cultures. An organization’s culture is dictated by the values of its leadership and the preponderance of chief executive officers (CEOs) coming from the front office means middle office and back office staff are the underdogs in any boardroom discussion.

The 2010 Dodd-Frank Act in the United States requires banks with $10 billion or more in assets to create a board level risk committee. This marks an important step forward in developing risk cultures where the authority of the CRO is underpinned with direct access to the board, enabling him or her to circumvent the CEO and highlight risk issues. In early 2000 only a minority of CROs had access to the board and CEOs could easily mute, or in extreme cases remove, their CROs if they did not march to the sound of the boss’s drum. This change in legislation and reporting line will cause a cultural change and require the front office to adapt a more risk-conscious approach to their work or face the wrath of a CRO.

There were a few brave candidates, both CROs and chief investment officers (CIOs), who resigned from their posts in 2007 and 2008 because their leadership refused to listen to them. These men and women were facing extreme pressure to fall in line as their organizations gorged themselves on risky derivatives. Standing up for what was right was a fatal strategy in these companies. We all saw the effects of such cultures as Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers came crashing down, causing unprecedented damage.

A growing trend

A recent study by Deloitte has shown that more than 50 percent of CROs are currently reporting to the board. This is an improvement on 2008, where that figure was 37 percent. This represents a gradual shift in the skill sets an organization requires at its helm and also raises questions about whether we have the right kind of leadership in the CEO seat. CEOs of the future will be required to have an understanding of risk, compliance and legal in order to effectively manage their organizations in the new market place. 

This change was not sudden and contrary to popular belief it is not the love child of a vicious bear market. While the correlation between tough economic data and the increase in risk professionals over the last three years suggests a causal link between increased economic risk and the corporate demand for CROs, this demand is in reality a long-term trend of risk management that has been growing steadily since the late 1980s. Behind what seems like a recent phenomenon of CRO empowerment we have been witnessing the ascendency of the middle office as operations, information technology, compliance, legal and risk have all been slowly growing in influence over the last three decades. 

What we are experiencing now is a trend which really began in the late 1980s and was first felt in the early market crash of the 1990s. At that time globalization and technology first began to change the way we did business and several mammoths such as IBM almost went bankrupt because they were not quick enough to adapt. In the 1990s companies had to think globally but act locally as clients wanted standardized services across the world. This is the tail of the same trend that is now past its tipping point. Throw increased volatility into the mix and large companies now have a significantly increased risk profile, a risk profile which has been slowly inching higher for the last 30 years. 

In conclusion, the rise of the CRO is a trend with a convincing track record, bound to accelerate further as it is authenticated with legislation and enforced with new regulation. Stanton Chase International has seen a 400 percent increase in demand for risk professionals over the last five years and we predict a further 44 percent increase in 2012. As organizations strive for better corporate governance and move to defend their profit pools from downside risk, CROs will continue to see their equity price rise.

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Finance

Teamwork to the top

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Insurance companies in Lebanon may have a future filled with potential but their presence is also stacked with risk. Although sector growth in 2011 to date has not been bad at all — data for the second quarter imply 17 percent expansion of premiums in the first half of the year (see story on sector statistics page 56) — growth in key segments of domestic insurance demand raises questions and interaction with global partners is also set for some challenging times.

In an interview with Executive, Assaad Merza, the president of the Association of Insurance Companies in Lebanon and chairman of Capital Insurance, said that although the sector shows good numbers in terms of the underwritten premiums that represent the industry’s turnover, “all insurance companies do not write large profits.” He added that a majority of people in the population tend to buy only medical insurance because of its importance for their families and themselves but do not have, or can not afford to buy, other needed policies.

As Merza further pointed out, insurance companies have been impacted this year by slowing sales of homes and cars. As with personal loans in general, lenders require that buyers of homes or cars back up the loans they take with a life insurance policy that will cover outstanding payments in case of the buyer’s death. This tying of insurance to provision of credit has generated profitable business for insurance companies but providers, especially firms linked to banks by ownership, feel it when the loan markets slow. 

“Insurers and banks definitely go alongside [one another] and all the retail lending products have insurance embedded in them. So it is normal that insurance will be affected if the economy slows down and this affects lending, especially in retail,” commented Fateh Bekdache, general manager of Arope Insurance.

BLOM Bank-owned Arope, whose continuous growth in the past few years has propelled the firm into the top tier of Lebanese insurance companies in terms of turnover and profits, saw its premiums rise in 2011 but expects 2012 to be a more challenging year, said Bekdache. Another bank-owned insurer, Byblos Bank’s Adir, has enjoyed premium developments this year in line with those of the same period in 2010, according to remarks General Manager Jean Hleiss made to Executive on the sidelines of an insurance conference in Beirut last month.   

While medical insurance has led to growth in premiums in 2011, the increases were not from new business, said Edward Traboulsi, general manager of Lebanese insurance firm Assurex: “Looking at the statistics for the first two quarters we have seen market growth mainly coming from medical insurance. The main driver behind that is the increase in prices or premiums which have to follow the increases in medical cost.”   

Real, that is inflation-adjusted, growth rates will be hard to achieve for 2011, agreed Elie Nasnas, general manager of AXA Middle East. “I think the sector is improving but growth this year will be less than two digits and the driver will be inflation much more than new business or increases in the number of insured.” According to Nasnas, insurance activity in the region is generally following trends in economic development and the concept that the sector itself would be sending impulses for growth into the wider economy is currently a dream.

“Unfortunately, the insurance sector is not yet driving the economy, definitely not,” he said.

Insurance activity in Lebanon is very sensitive to fluctuations in the economy as the reach of mandatory covers for companies and individuals is small. Even the compulsory third-party liability policies for motor vehicles are still limited to covering bodily harm instead of material damages and a mandatory insurance for buildings, the so-called decennial insurance introduced several years ago, has so far not been implemented because the legal requirement mandated an earthquake cover and insurance companies refuse to cover such acts, as they cannot  obtain reinsurance.

Across the entire Middle East and North Africa (MENA), risk mitigation levels in society are tied to the presence or absence of compulsory insurance schemes. These schemes, plus the prevalence of life insurance as savings and wealth-building instruments, constitute a large portion of insurance spending in developed economies, which in 2010 were reported at $3,724 per capita in North America (United States of America and Canada) and up to $6,633 in Western Europe. In addition to macroeconomic factors, the absence of compulsory lines contributes significantly to the far lower degree of insurance spending in emerging economies, which for 2010 was preliminarily calculated at $110 per capita by a report for global reinsurance firm Swiss Re.

In comparison to developed economies, MENA populations have a high tolerance for personal risks and relatively high reliance on familial support networks. The introduction of new mandatory insurances would be a key requirement to facilitate premium growth in any country of the MENA region.

“I expect an overall increase in premiums of between 12 and 17 percent in the Arab world for 2011. For 2012 I have some doubts,” said Fady Shammas, chief executive of Arabia Insurance.  He added that, “Unless there are compulsory insurances that are agreed upon and legislated, I don’t expect major growth. The more compulsory, the more premiums. But as long as the people of the Arab world are poor and disposable incomes do not exist, many governments will be very reluctant to come up with laws of compulsory insurance, very reluctant. I don’t expect any introduction of compulsory insurance in 2012, because the governments are afraid of the people.”

The region’s upheavals thus figure indirectly in lowering the business outlook for insurance companies, at least in the short-to-medium term. As Lebanese insurance firms have established subsidiaries in countries affected by the Arab revolutions, their businesses in these countries have also seen a direct downturn. According to Arope’s Bekdache, 2010 was a very good year for the company’s regional subsidiaries in Egypt and Syria but this year is not. The manager did not disclose, however, how sharp the decline in each of these two countries was in the first nine months of 2011.

In Bekdache’s view, however, insurance expansion in under-served regional markets is not going to be derailed. Unrest in single countries will delay the implementation of expansion projects but insurers who ventured into these markets did so with a long-term perspective and are confident that the market growth will restart after the societal changes.

That sentiment echoes with Assurex, the first Lebanese company to acquire a license to operate in the Iraqi market. According to its General Manager Traboulsi, there is no doubt that the rationale for expansion remains sound. “We need to look at other markets in order to grow. We have the know-how and the capabilities and there is business out there, so it is very important for us to grow our business to look outside the borders. Iraq was a country where we thought there is potential for us,” he said, adding that although it is very challenging to write new business in Iraq, the country offers a rare combination of an established insurance tradition and while being a “virgin market”.

One reason Traboulsi cited for the pressure on Lebanese insurers to venture outside is the intense competition in the crowded domestic market. “The pie is just not growing in Lebanon. We are competing against ourselves to grow our market share or increase our volume of business,” he said.

The same sentiment was voiced by Max Zaccar, chairman of Commercial Insurance and one of the sector’s longest-standing leaders of a family-owned insurer. Aggressive competition over the very few profitable lines in general insurance, including marine hull and cargo business, has intensified further in recent years, he told Executive.

The problem of competition is endemic even at a regional level and fragmentations of the industry play a large role in lowering the strength of sector companies, said Farid Chedid, chairman of Chedid Re, one of the largest brokers in reinsurance services in MENA.   

The most problematic side of the intense competition among Arab insurance companies is that, “unfortunately most of the competition is based on price,” Chedid said.

The tightness of insurers’ profit margins is an issue that influences negotiations between them and the international reinsurance companies to whom they hand portions of risk to limit their exposure to manageable levels. Due to pressures that global reinsurers face from high catastrophe losses, (according to Swiss Re, the first half in 2011 was the second worst year in reinsurance history with a loss of $70 billion) and from difficult financial markets that impair their investment incomes, regional insurers are now caught in a quagmire. “On the one hand we have reinsurers who are trying to raise prices and improve terms and conditions [to their advantage] and on the other hand insurance companies are in severe competition with one another and are trying to pull prices down. This makes things very difficult because each group is looking at the business from a very different angle,” Chedid added.

He believes that the Middle East’s insurers may be forced to rethink their strategies. “Our region cannot live without reinsurance. Reinsurance cession is one of the highest in the world. Why is there so much reliance on reinsurance? Because insurance companies are too many — over 500 companies in MENA — and because there are so many, they do not have the capacities for higher retention of risk.”

This tight squeeze on the industry can, Chedid argues, help make the sector more efficient. “The smaller insurance companies that rely heavily on reinsurance will definitely be left behind if they don’t increase their capital bases and upgrade their underwriting and risk management expertise. We are moving toward a trend of more consolidation in the industry, more expertise in the industry, more capital in the industry and therefore more retention of risks in the region.”

Negotiation of contract renewals with reinsurance companies is one strong concern of sector companies, but an even larger concern is the development of investment portfolios and investment incomes, Arabia’s Shammas said. Between the impact on underwriting from reinsurance tightening and the impact on investments, the greater impact is “definitely on investments. If your results are good and you are profitable, the reinsurer will not put pressure on you when terms for renewals are negotiated — whereas your investments are at risk at any point in time.” He added that Arab insurance companies are impacted by the performance of their investments in European bonds and equities, and are furthermore exposed to the effects of turbulent global conditions on countries in the Middle East.

The region’s insurers will not escape the impact of the latest financial woes in developed economies, said Ibrahim Muhanna, a Lebanese insurance consultant. “The insurance industry in the Arab world always has a delayed effect from financial developments in global markets. When in 2008 everybody said we were immune, I told them we are going to feel it and they felt it a year later.”

Even insurers without direct exposure to the European crisis will feel an impact because they have investors who are exposed, albeit with a delay of a year or two, Muhanna told Executive. “If one of their big policy holders, for example, is exposed, this policy holder’s business will go down in the second year and his premiums will go down and the insurer’s business will go down. It has a delayed effect. It takes a good two years to feel it in the Arab world. The results reported in 2011 are not as bad as anticipated but in 2012 and 2013 we will definitely feel the results.”

A final duo of items weighing on the balance sheet of insurers in the Middle East are the issues of regulation and cooperation. Fairly advanced regulations have been introduced in some countries but there are major differences, and in Lebanon the adoption of a new insurance law has yet to happen (see interview with the Lebanese insurance commissioner on page 64).

Mention of regulatory intrusion into their established ways still has the ability to raise the hackles of insurance managers and the implementation of regional insurance regulation remains something of an illusion, although it would facilitate important progress in regional sector growth in the views of many region-wide actors such as Chedid.   

“Today, each country has its own regulation and different regulatory requirements beginning from very basic things [such as] policy wordings, risk management, capital base. Some countries are moving towards risk-based capital, others are using minimum capital with guarantees,” he said. “We need to move to more homogeneity in the region by regulators so that the market can develop and the insurance companies can develop on regional basis and therefore grow. Then they will be able to retain more risks in the market and be able to afford better underwriting expertise and better IT systems. No country in the region today can on its own provide enough volume and enough business to create economies of scale. As a regional company, you can create economies of scale and you are able to compete with international giants,” he said.

As major stakeholders in the Lebanese insurance industry emphasized to Executive, the country’s insurance sector can only blossom with regional cooperation. This, however, means that issues that reside just below the surface in regional dialogue — including misgivings, jealousies, territorial thinking and distrust of the other stakeholders’ intentions — need to be mastered by companies, brokers, regulators and all practitioners of insurance.

A conference bringing together insurance regulators and insurance companies at the end of October in Beirut was the first initiative to provide an equal and open forum for all stakeholders. Although Sharia-compliant insurance, or Takaful, has no significant representation in Lebanon, the forum even drew the attention of an insurance regulator from Senegal who attended with the specific aim of meeting Takaful companies.

Although, or perhaps even because, discussions at the forum had their moments of clearly opposing views, the event was hailed by participants as a great step forward in improving relationships among the region’s insurance stakeholders.

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Finance

In from the dark

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

The most significant innovation in the Lebanese insurance industry this year is transparency in on-time delivery. For the first time in roughly 60 years of collecting premiums and paying claims, the majority of insurers have made their quarterly headline numbers available for evaluation.

Starting with the first quarter 2011, Lebanese insurance industry data is published in a statistical review by the Association des Compagnies d‘Assurances au Liban (ACAL). They cover overall trends for premiums, claims and ratios as well as trends per business line — including life insurance, motor and others — for a total of nine areas of insurance activity.

“The insurance control commission at the Ministry of Economy and Trade started publishing the annual report on the insurance sector in 2005 and it was an important initiative,” said Jamil Harb, secretary general of ACAL. “However, we realized that it would be better for the companies and the public interest to gain faster access to this statistical information, so the ACAL Board proposed to the member companies to find an independent and trustworthy company to carry out the publication of the quarterly report.”

Harb told Executive that ACAL committed itself to the project as the two-year time lag in issuance of the official reports greatly reduced the usefulness of the information. The association commissioned reputed local auditing firm Fiduciaire du Moyen Orient to provide the analysis of data, while guaranteeing the full confidentiality of it to each individual company.

According to second-quarter data, Lebanese insurers underwrote risks represented by $623.3 million in gross premiums in the first six months of 2011. This compares with $1.11 billion in premiums in the whole of 2010 and when compared with the first six months of 2010, represents a year-on-year growth of 17 percent.

The trials of transparency

It is a common problem in international insurance markets that sector players are often more reluctant than other financial companies to disclose their information. Underwriting performance in terms of gross premiums is generally easiest to obtain, but an insurance market’s performance can really only be understood if information is available on aspects such as the net premiums after cession of risks to reinsurance companies, technical reserves, ratios and other issues.  

On the upside of transparency, however, sector companies can only assess their real positions vis-à-vis their peers and the actual market trends if comprehensive data is available quickly. Lebanese insurance leaders have so far reacted well to the first two editions of the report.

“It definitely helps to have the statistics,” said Fateh Bekdache, general manager of Arope Insurance. Before the introduction of the reports by the association, sector companies were limited to data the Arabic business magazine Al Bayan collected annually from the companies, and Bekdache noted that this was not always reliable given that they were unaudited.

Edward Traboulsi, general manager of Assurex Insurance, said statistics help to benchmark it against its peers. He hailed the reports as “an excellent tool which we didn’t have before. There are so many questions that are left unanswered if you don’t have benchmarking statistics.”

Claims & benefits 2011

The report for the second quarter of this year showed that Lebanese insurers paid out $258.5 million in claims and benefits to their policyholders by June 30. Like premiums, claims and benefits were up from the same period in 2010. However, the rate of increase in claims was 10 percent, notably below the rate of premiums growth. The year-on-year increase in claims and benefits at the end of the first quarter stood at 4 percent.

The two dominant business lines in terms of total turnover in the first half of the year were, as usual, medical and motor insurance, 33.4 percent and 25.7 percent, respectively. Life insurance was the third largest sector, representing 23.1 percent. The combined market share of the three lines left the other lines in general insurance — from workmen’s compensation and fire to marine and engineering — vying for less than one fifth of the total premiums pie.

The data on paid claims shows that motor and medical claims represent nearly 75 percent of everything paid out by insurers. The gap between the shares in total premiums and total claims payments for the two lines was thus about 15 percentage points in favor of claims. While illustrating the extreme importance of the two largest business lines for the industry’s revenues, the overweight of motor and medical claims in percentage terms also underscores the volatility of those lines.

In the smaller, more profitable lines such as fire, marine cargo and hull, engineering and construction, general liability and others, the statistics illustrate that these lines — due to their small size of total premiums — can be exposed to significant fluctuations on the claims side when just one major case occurs, such as an industrial fire destroying a multi-million dollar manufacturing facility.

The analysis of the insurance sector still has lots of room for improvement. Part of this evolution will occur naturally, as with the flow of time the issuance of reports will make the information published in the first two quarters more relevant and comparable.

Another value boost will come from increasing participation from insurance companies that have committed themselves to provide the quarterly information on a voluntary basis. The second-quarter report already reached a comprehensive 95 percent coverage of all non-life premiums, based on data reported by 42 of ACAL’s 53 members. However, the absence of one major life insurer’s data meant that the report’s figures captured a lower 80 percent of the activity in that sector.        

Insurer investments

One area in which the association is currently working to extend the statistical report’s coverage is in gaining a view of investment portfolios which insurance companies hold. The importance of insurance companies as institutions in financial markets is directly related to their muscle mass as investors. Wielding this investment power essentially on behalf of their policyholders, insurance companies provide a component of stability to both financial markets and society. 

The size, allocations to investment classes and profitability of the insurance sector’s investment portfolios are thus of interest to the public as indicators of the companies’ financial health. The portfolio data is also of interest to professional analysts across the entire finance industry as, for example, growing investment power by local insurance companies could provide a telling hint on the possibility of seeing more liquidity in Lebanon’s financial and equity markets.

Investments by insurance companies in relation to their insurance business play a preeminent role in developed insurance markets and estimates are that sector companies in Lebanon invest more than two dollars tied to their life insurance business for every dollar they invest related to non-life business.

Inclusion of insurance sector investment portfolio data overall, and their correlation to each business line, is on the agenda of the ACAL quarterly report for upcoming editions. According to Harb, the compilation and analysis of this data is still being worked out, as extrapolations of totals are not possible when analyzing investment activities that are distinct for each company.

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