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Banking & Finance

Simon Cooper

by Executive Editors May 28, 2011
written by Executive Editors

Simon Cooper is deputy chairman at HSBC Bank Middle East and North Africa (MENA). He recently sat down with Executive to discuss the effect of the regional unrest on business and investment in the MENA region, as well as growth opportunities for the future.

  • With all the capital outflows, the foreign investments that have been stopped, the people who have been laid off, the expectation that unemployment will rise rather than fall, the lost tourism and the fact that the government is not spending yet, it seems it will take a lot for Egypt to not to fall into a very vicious circle. Banks in general and HSBC are exposed to a lot of risks there. There’s a risk of default from corporate clients and absolutely from individuals for the retail banking division. How are you going to manage this crisis?

I think you’ve got to step back here. First there was the physical crisis that hopefully has passed. We were able to manage that through being part of a regional network so we were able to immediately support what was taking place onshore in Egypt with our infrastructure offshore. We were the first bank to re-open in Egypt.

In terms of the credit risk, we saw a short-term blip in delinquency in February when people on the retail side were not paid because businesses weren’t open to issue payrolls. But we’ve seen that reversing in March.

We as a bank are at the higher end of the economic spectrum in our client base so we have a natural advantage in terms of segmentation of our customer base. When you look at the corporate side, the central bank of Egypt was very disciplined for many years in terms of making sure that foreign currency borrowing was mirrored by foreign currency earnings. So again the impact of foreign exchange has been largely self-hedged by the regulations over many years.

There’s certainly going to be a short term impact on tourism. Hotel occupancy is definitely lower this time this year than it would have been this time last year. I understand that people are starting to book again for October-November, which will be the next peak season for Egypt’s tourism industry. It’s too early to say whether that will be successful or not. It will be a very important barometer to see how many people do come back in.

There’s definitely a bump in the road; exactly how long that bump will last is too early to say. To my mind, it’s probably a year or two to get back on its historic trajectory but I don’t think it will take 10 years, after a sort of downward spiral from where we sit today. We now need the constitutional reform to be moved forward; we need the government to come into place and hopefully it will be a sustainable one.

  • You were one of the first to be in Iraq along with Standard Chartered, but in the end it wasn’t really operational. What’s your prospect for Iraq and why there?

I can’t take credit or blame; it was done before I was in the region. But talking to Lebanese customers, there’s a huge amount of interest in business opportunities in Iraq. A number of people distribute their products into Iraq – all told me that their only constraint was in getting enough product into the market, whose potential they believe is significant. I think if you look at foreign investment coming into Iraq we’ve done a lot in terms of some of our multinational clients looking to establish or grow their business [there]. It’s not going to suddenly take over the United States as a top-five economy in the world, but in terms of growth potential it’s significant. Physical security remains a high operating cost of having a branch network in Iraq. But the business potential I think is significant. We used to manage the business predominantly from Jordan, and we increasingly put more and more people into Iraq as security becomes much more stable.

  • Bahrain’s image as a financial hub has been tarnished recently. Is doing business there at the moment such a good idea?

There are clearly a number of companies that ran regional businesses from Bahrain that had to move their operations very quickly elsewhere. So clearly that is a memory that people will retain for some time and it will cause people to think twice when they are looking to really invest. So yes, there has been some damage to its brand. But we’re absolutely staying there. We’ve been through a number of wars in the region and turmoil — we’ve seen it all before. So we’re very much here to stay and to continue to invest more.

  • How would you assess potential for Syria and Libya?

In Syria we have a representative office. We applied for a branch license last year, which we didn’t get. In terms of Libya, there’s a tremendous opportunity in terms of the economy and to be part of the economic growth. But I don’t know what’s going to happen in terms of the current conflict; that has to resolve itself one way or another before you can form a view as to where the economy is going and how long it’s going to take to get there. But the potential is absolutely huge. In Syria, I’m sure the economics are strong; but from a banking perspective, as an international bank doing business in Syria, given the US sanctions and everything else, it is too difficult. 

  • Will the ‘Arab Spring’ provide new opportunities for the region?

Look at what’s been the reaction for a number of governments. There’s been an increase in infrastructure spending. There’s a renewed or heightened oil price. Both of those things are economic stimulants for much of this region, and that gives tremendous opportunities for employment, gives opportunities for bankers, for project financing. So, yes, I think there will definitely be some benefits coming from it.

Many of the countries’ infrastructure is not at as high levels as you would expect given these countries’ wealth. So as infrastructure investment comes in, it is a real sustainable investment and a real sustainable benefit to the economy. It’s not just the initial sort of cash injection; it’s what it does to enable businesses going forward.

  • Who benefited from the capital outflows within the MENA region?

There’s definitely a flow of capital around the region. While there’s been an FDI [foreign direct investment] outflow, some of it has come back into some of the other countries. The UAE [United Arab Emirates] has definitely benefited from some of the unrest that’s taken place around the region. It’s become a safe haven for some direct investors.

It’s also become a safe haven for tourists. Tourism numbers in the UAE have risen dramatically in the last few years…because perhaps people are more concerned than they were about holidaying in some of the other destinations they would have otherwise gone to.

May 28, 2011 0 comments
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Banking & Finance

The warning shot has sounded

by Executive Editors May 28, 2011
written by Executive Editors

The United States government’s recent designation of Lebanese-Canadian Bank (LCB) as a “prime money laundering concern” crippled the bank, prompting a shotgun marriage merger that will effectively erase LCB from the country’s banking sector. The event has highlighted the shortcomings of the country’s anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing regime, and has been a wake-up call for Lebanese banks to both the ramifications of non-compliance and the long reach of the US Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). It is also almost certainly a warning that Lebanon will be hit where it hurts most if it plays politics against the interests of the world’s largest economy.

When asked about LCB’s merger with Société Générale Banque au Liban (SGBL), Lebanon’s alpha banks refused comment across the board — indeed the topic of money laundering in Lebanon is so sensitive that officials and experts from multiple local and international organizations interviewed for this report would speak only on condition of anonymity.

As rumors circulated that the United States Department of the Treasury could be eyeing three or four more banks over dirty money allegations, the sealed lips of Lebanon’s biggest banks have left important questions unanswered regarding preemptive risk measures, such as scrutinizing bank accounts and transactions, upgrading compliance measures and related software and avoiding high-risk individuals and politically exposed persons (PEPs). But their actions have spoken volumes.

As the first quarter of 2011 came to a close, financial investigative units in Lebanon received a deluge of suspicious transaction reports (STRs) — required notifications filed by banks to the Special Investigation Commission (SIC) within the Banque du Liban (BDL), Lebanon’s central bank — with many regarding transactions that were only faintly suspicious.

“We had an STR on a $300 cash transfer — banks are worried,” said one financial investigator.

Lebanon’s banking sector has long been praised for its conservative nature and its contributions toward stabilizing the country’s economy, but now it is in the limelight for all the wrong reasons. While the storm seems to have subsided, the LCB scandal may well blow the cover of other banks before it blows over. With suspicion of vast amounts of dirty money circulating in Lebanon, the many loopholes through which it enters and the foreign pressures to expose it, the scene is set for an LCB sequel.

Dirty money

LCB’s connections to Lebanese-Colombian drug lord Ayman Joumaa’s shady money transfers, risky liaisons and a mix of inconclusive accusations by the US Treasury helped bring LCB down nearly overnight. But Joumaa is likely far from the only Lebanese bank customer engaged in suspect drug trafficking and money laundering.

While the vast majority of the estimated 8 million Lebanese and their descendants living abroad have exported their mercantile sensibilities to contribute to the economies and societies where they now live — and do so within the legal parameters of those countries — this massive diaspora and its strong family and community ties has also aided in the formation of a number of international networks engaged in illicit business.

Lebanese expats have built large communities abroad, mainly in South America, but also in South and West Africa, Canada, Australia, the United States and Europe; among the small number of more shady expats, law enforcement agencies have documented patterns of organized involvement in black market dealings involving illegal narcotics, ‘blood diamonds’, car-theft mafias and the like.

According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, in the early 1990s Lebanon gradually transformed itself into a regional hub for cocaine and heroin trafficking. And drug busts over the last few years indicate that the business continues to boom, especially those networks working out of South America.

In October 2008, United States and Colombian investigators dismantled a cocaine-smuggling and money-laundering ring that had been working with a Colombian cartel and a paramilitary group to smuggle cocaine into the US, Europe and the Middle East. In the middle was Lebanese kingpin Chekry Harb, the liaison between South American cocaine traffickers and Middle Eastern “militants”. Some $23 million was seized and 170 arrests were made, while Harb’s drug ring was believed to be laundering millions more monthly through what is called the ‘Black Market Peso Exchange’ using Asian-based financial institutions

In mid-2010, a record drug bust was made at the Port of Beirut when 102 kilograms of pure South American cocaine, worth $10 million, arrived in Lebanon packed under a layer of lead inside machine cylinders. And in September 2010, Lebanese security forces uncovered another network that the Central Office for Drug Control (CODC) called “one of the most important, highly complex networks” smuggling drugs between South America and Lebanon. The CODC confiscated 50 kilograms of cocaine, worth $8 million, of the 255 kilograms that one Venezuelan and four Lebanese had confessed they had planned to smuggle.

Heading north, car theft rings in Canada have also found their way to Lebanon. According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC), Lebanon is among the top 10 destinations for stolen Canadian cars, by way of containerized vehicles that usually make their way through Genoa, Italy to Eastern Mediterranean ports, including Beirut. In February 2009, Hanna Tanios and Ayyad Tirani, two Lebanese residing in Canada, faced charges of fraudulent concealment and possession of stolen property, namely cars. The vehicles were being cut in half and shipped via the port of Montreal to Lebanon where they were reassembled or sold for parts.

And then there is the Ivory Coast, which fosters one of the most notorious industries that Lebanese expats have engaged in: ‘conflict’ or ‘blood’ diamonds. In 2009, the Kimberly Process Certification Scheme (KPCS), the international regulatory body specific to the trade, recognized the Lebanon-Guinea Axis as an emerging diamond laundering route. In almost three years, leading up to 2009, Guinea had reported a 600 percent increase in diamond production and went from providing zero to 85 percent of Lebanon’s diamond imports. Although attributed to the discovery of new mines within the country, Guinea’s production pump was also connected to conflict diamonds coming from the northern Ivory Coast. As 2008 came to an end, 73 percent of Guinea’s total diamond exports were heading to Lebanon.

Lebanon’s irregular trade statistics, mentioned in a 2009 report by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), also raised some eyebrows; though it has no diamond mines, in 2009 Lebanon somehow managed to export 386,000 carats more in gem-quality diamonds than it had imported, while recording a trade deficit on industrial diamonds, which are worth 10 percent of the value of their gem-quality cousins. According to Partnership Africa Canada’s “Diamonds and Human Security Annual Review 2009,” “some 250,000 more carats leave [Lebanon] as gem-quality diamonds than arrive — worth 36 times their import value.” The discrepancies in numbers led the KPCS to investigate possible tax evasion, with Lebanon accused of importing gem-quality diamonds from Guinea as industrial diamonds, as the latter are taxed at a lower rate relative to their value.

“There is a large spectrum of criminal activities that involve some Lebanese abroad. But smuggling coffee from Colombia or counterfeit products from China is overlooked in Lebanon, which begs the question, what is dirty money?” asked one economist at a global banking watchdog organization who was not authorized to speak to the press.

But, according to the “International Narcotics Control Strategy Report” (INCSR) published in March 2011 by the US Department of State, these small-time illicit businesses in Lebanon are not the primary sources of funds laundered through the formal banking system.

“Laundered criminal proceeds come primarily from organized crime [networks],” the report says, not from smaller black market dealers.

However, a 2009 mutual evaluation report carried out by the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENA-FATF) — the regional arm of the global Financial Action Task Force, an organization dedicated to stemming money laundering and terrorism financing — noted that drug trafficking in Lebanon “is limited to 150 dealers, [with] the average value of the business of each ranging between $4 million to $5 million.” That means a possible $600 million to $750 million may be entering the Lebanese economy each year, and potentially through the banking system.

The loopholes

According to the World Bank, some $8.2 billion in remittances found its way back to Lebanon in 2010, and this, according to the INCS report, poses significant potential for money laundering and ‘terrorism’ financing (as classified by the US), given the involvement of Lebanese networks abroad in underground finance and trade-based money laundering.

But, according to the global banking expert, the ambiguity in classifying transfers makes it hard to spot the shady ones. “The numbers are seemingly transparent, but they are hardly indicative,” he says. For one, remittances are not categorized; there is no distinction between capital, income transfers and money that goes straight into households. The inability to sift through this money makes it difficult to spot potential abuses.

There is also the issue of ‘fiscal residence’; Many expats use the fact that their fiscal residence is not in Lebanon to avoid reporting the source of their funding, meaning the Lebanese government is unable to trace money back to its source.

However, when it comes to capturing financial flows, there are certain unimplemented mechanisms in Lebanon that would provide the opportunity for greater scrutiny and oversight.

While financial institutions’ reports are major indicators of these flows, there is a shortage of economic, business, household and investment surveys indicating how much one earns on a monthly or yearly basis and the nature of those earnings. These surveys can catch inconsistencies in numbers once compared to those of financial institutions.

“How can the Central Bank do cross-checking if there is nothing to cross-check with?” the banking expert asked. The National Statistics Office, the severely neglected data collection wing of the government, has been too poorly funded to conduct large-scale fieldwork that can produce reliable figures.

Additionally, inconsistent reporting and inadequate enforcement of tax declarations by individuals and companies makes assessing income levels and possible suspicious transactions harder to spot. The issue is further compounded by Lebanon being primarily a cash-based society with a minimal paper trail, whether for tax and income declarations or for the authorities to monitor for suspicious transactions.

The shortcomings of such oversight at the governmental and fiscal level have knock-on complications for compliance units at banks in carrying out customer due diligence, more commonly known as ‘know your customer’ (KYC), procedures, where compliance officers (COs) are required to know the customer’s background, their profession, income and business dealings.

For instance, KYC can involve unannounced visits to a business to confirm that the declared business is what it claims to be, and whether it is generating the amounts coming in and out of the client’s account, but such investigations are few and far between in Lebanon. Complicating matters are the often very personal relations at the branch level between banker and client, where clients see it as an intrusion for the bank to probe into a customer’s life.

“Banks here are wary, and although interested in curbing money laundering, they need to do more [to improve] compliance, training and implement policies,” said a source close to the BDL.

These efforts are being undermined, however, by the lack of authority COs have within the management structure of financial institutions.

“If you took a survey of banks’ compliance and asked about the independence of the CO vis-a-vis management, the powers they have, their background [and] professional experience, and their salaries compared to other officers in the bank, it would come up short,” the source said.

A CO at a major Lebanese bank considered the compliance departments’ lack of authority a major obstacle to curbing money laundering and protecting the bank.

“One of the weaknesses we have here is that Lebanese banks are family businesses, so they can do anything they want,” said the CO. “COs should work more closely with the SIC without going directly to the chairman of the bank… Compliance should have the veto over whether to take on a client; otherwise what’s the point if the CO can’t say no?”

Easily secret

One concern specific to cash flows is the shortage of cross-border checks. According to a FinCEN report, cross-border currency reporting in Lebanon is requested of those carrying into the country more than $10,000 in cash, but currently is not enforced by law. This creates a significant cash-smuggling vulnerability. The SIC is working to draft laws to mandate cross-border checks but for now it goes largely unregulated. There is also no oversight of the buying and selling in precious metals, with ounces and kilos of gold and silver able to be bought over the counter, in cash, without any identification or paperwork required.

Another issue, once a forte for Lebanese banks, is banking secrecy. “There have been concessions with regard to banking secrecy; when transfers are fishy, banks are required by [AML Law 32] to lift secrecy,” said one financial investigator. But the global banking expert noted that banking secrecy itself is not the issue.

“The problem is that [secrecy] comes as a free gift for all,” he explains. In Lebanon, there are no disincentives for hiding records. In Switzerland, on the other hand, there are two strings of depositors: those who have banking secrecy and those who do not. The latter pay progressive taxation on revenues of deposits based on brackets; as their deposits reach higher brackets, they pay higher taxes. The former, on the other hand, are automatically subject to the tax rate corresponding to the highest bracket.

“Basically, if you want banking secrecy you pay for it,” he said. This taxation system does not spare banks from money launderers, but it is a form of insurance for the banks.

Banking secrecy does not mean that there is no oversight, however, as the SIC can request that it be lifted in the case of suspicious accounts. Indeed, the SIC lifted bank secrecy on 23 cases in 2010, which were then passed on to the General Prosecutor.

Money launderers in Lebanon are also protected by a lack of investigative work into their past. Only once banks notice irregular patterns in transfers and flows do they file an STR, after which the individual is looked into; the US State Department’s narcotics report notes an over-reliance on STRs to initiate investigations rather than an emphasis on predicate offenses that could involve money laundering. Notably, last year there was an uptick in the reporting of suspicious transactions, with the SIC receiving 245 cases — 160 from local sources and 85 from foreign — up from 2009’s 202 cases, of which 127 were from local sources. Lebanese banks, however, have only recently upgraded their IT systems to include money laundering detection software, as well as subscribing to databases that list high and heightened risk individuals and entities.

With Ayman Joumaa’s network linked to exchange houses in Lebanon, it was the amount of funds allegedly able to flow through them that was of concern. Effectively the exchanges were acting as banks. “Exchanges shouldn’t do parallel banking,” said the CO. “Only recently did they start doing third party (transactions), and they shouldn’t. They should let banks handle wire transfers.”

There are 383 exchange companies in Lebanon, 13 percent of which fall under “category A”, enabling them to trade in higher denominations and to carry out electronic transfers. The SIC is aware of the risks posed by exchange dealers; nearly half of the 154 on-sight examinations carried out in 2010 focused on money dealers.

But additional threats continue to surface. New payment methods (NPM) are providing money launderers with additional means to do their work. In its 2010 “Money Laundering Using New Payment Methods” report, the FATF highlighted the particular dangers of prepaid cards. These plastic cards, which are provided both by banks and private operators, allow customers to bypass credit checks and other forms of financial scrutiny. Some can be used in multiple countries.

“These high limit prepaid cards are like a mobile, transferable, untraceable, anonymous bank account,” the banking expert said. They allow virtually anybody to place money on a card, with little to no background check, and to do with it as they please, including in some cases using it outside of the country, as well as allowing others to access it. The latest BDL figures show a 7.1 percent increase in the number of prepaid and charge cards in Lebanon since 2009.

Dangerous bedfellows

With Washington keen to crack down on banks dealing with designated terrorist organizations and countries under US and international sanctions, Lebanese banks are exposed — like LCB was — to risk when dealing in financial transactions with America’s enemies: notably Hezbollah, Iran and Syria.

With the US intent on freezing transactions that go via or into the US from such parties, Lebanese banks, subsidiaries and affiliates face hazards. For example, the state-owned Commercial Bank of Syria (CBS) is on the US blacklist, a potential concern for Lebanese banks dealing with CBS; risks also exist for Lebanese banks simply operating in Syria, as well as Lebanese interacting with Iranian banks, such as Saderat and Melli. Bank Saderat, which was blacklisted by the US Treasury for providing funds for Hezbollah and Hamas, has branches in Lebanon.

Such risk exposure is not to be taken lightly — LCB executives can surely attest to the potential repercussions. In the case of British bank LloydsTSB, it was fined $350 million by a New York court in 2009 for transferring funds in a manner that contravened US sanctions, on behalf of clients in Sudan and Iran, including for Bank Saderat.

“The US Treasury can do anything they want. We’re helpless here and need to be very careful. Everyday banks, even US banks, get fined,” said the CO. “The SIC should do the same and give fines,” he added.

The politics

Evidence from the investigation justifying LCB’s designation as a primary money laundering concern has yet to materialize, let alone justify the hasty arrangements made between BDL and the US treasury. “So far, we have not found the links they are talking about, whether about the bank itself or about Joumaa,” one investigator close to the case told Executive.

US reports on money laundering in Lebanon mostly focus on drug trafficking and conflict diamond trade involving Lebanese abroad, often heightening concerns on illicit proceeds financing terrorism. As far as the US government is concerned, any money wired to Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon falls under the umbrella of terrorism financing, as was the case when Lebanese kingpin Chekry Harb’s cocaine ring was believed to be bankrolling Hezbollah. So seems to be the case with nearly every exposed drug trafficking ring the Lebanese have been involved with.

This poses a dilemma for Lebanese banks, as Hezbollah, despite the controversy, is recognized as a legitimate political party and resistance force by the Lebanese government. The US has denied any political agenda in the decision to designate LCB. The fact that it was announced exactly one month following the dissolution of the cabinet and the appointment of Hezbollah-backed prime minister-designate Najib Miqati, however, is seen by many of those who spoke with Executive as a clear message to Lebanon.

Given the apparent vulnerabilities of Lebanese banks, and the paltry standard for evidence the US Treasury showed it required to bring the hammer down on LCB, should the US decide to scrutinize more of Lebanon’s banks in the months to come there would almost certainly be more institutional casualties.

On the other hand, according to the global banking expert, “If no other banks are targeted, it means that LCB’s was a warning. No more, no less.”

May 28, 2011 0 comments
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Banking & Finance

For your information

by Executive Editors May 28, 2011
written by Executive Editors

ABL adjusts benchmark lending rates

The Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL) has recommended an adjustment of local and foreign currency benchmark lending rates to its member banks. In a circular dated April 12, ABL urged Lebanese banks to lower the Beirut Reference Rate (BRR) on lending in Lebanese lira (LL) from 7.27 percent to 7.21 percent. At the same time, it recommended raising the BRR on US dollar (USD) lending to 4.79 percent from 4.72 percent. The BRR on USD lending replaced the London Interbank Offered rate (LIBOR) as the national reference rate for lending in foreign currency in 2009, after the ABL had judged the LIBOR to no longer reflect the cost of funding and lending in Lebanon. The new benchmarks were adopted on both USD and LL lending in March and May 2009, respectively. Both BRRs constitute the basis to calculate the Beirut Prime Lending rate. ABL’s latest recommendations are part of efforts by Banque du Liban, Lebanon’s central bank, and the association to stimulate lending in local currency. The proposed adjustments will be effective as of May 2011.

El Zein group acquires controlling stake in MedGulf

Lutfi El Zein (LFZ) Holding, the investment vehicle owned by the insurance sector personality of the same name, has acquired a 51 percent stake in Mediterranean and Gulf Insurance and Reinsurance Group (MedGulf Group) in a transaction valued at $400 million. El Zein, long-time chairman and chief executive officer of MedGulf Group and previous holder of a minor shareholding in the group, purchased the stake from Saudi Oger, the conglomerate owned by the family of Lebanese  caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The acquisition is the largest leveraged buy-out (LBO) in the Middle East since 2007 and the largest ever insurance LBO in the Middle East and North Africa region. A consortium of 16 banks arranged the deal, which includes a $175 million syndicated loan facility, part of a multi-tranche financing package. Lead arranger on the acquisition was Bank Audi; Deutsche Bank was the book runner. MedGulf Group, which is Lebanon based, is stakeholder in MedGulf Bahrain, which in turn owns 32 percent of MedGulf Saudi, a listed company.

Moody’s raises DP World debt to investment grade

Moody’s ratings agency raised the credit ratings of DP World, a leading global port operator and subsidiary of Dubai World, to investment grade with a stable outlook, citing the company’s rapid recovery in terms of operating performance in 2010 and into 2011. The upgrade to Ba1 from Baa3 includes DP World’s long-term foreign and domestic currency ratings, and the rating on its $1.5 billion Sukuk Islamic bond, due in 2017, with a total of $3.25 billion in debt affected. The positive rating action follows DP World’s late March announcement of 35 percent increase in 2010 net profits to $450 million, buoyed largely by strong volume growth in the second half of the year. According to Moody’s, the ratings are sustained by the company’s diversified global operations, expected growth in container traffic, as well as solid profitability and a strong liquidity profile.

Auction for Syria’s third mobile license postponed 

Syria has suspended plans to auction off the country’s third mobile license due to political tensions and changes in its government. Scheduled for April 17, the license auction could not proceed due to a change in the supervisory committee overseeing the auction after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad replaced his prime minister and cabinet and promised to introduce new electoral and media laws in response to popular revolts. By the time of the auction’s suspension, the number of bidders had already shrunk from five to two companies. In March, the United Arab Emirates’ mobile giant Etisalat pulled out of the bidding, stating disappointment with the stipulated 25 percent revenue share allocation to the Syrian government. Etisalat’s bid was estimated at $122 million. Also citing Syria’s revenue terms, potential bidders France Telecom and Turkcell quickly followed suit and dropped out. By early April, Qatar Telecom Company (Qtel) and Saudi Telecom Company (STC) were the only bidders left. At the time, both companies reconfirmed their bidding commitments. Following postponement of the auction, Qtel said it was still firmly interested in pursuing the license despite the delay.

Plastic payment

on the rise in LebanonFigures released by Banque du Liban (BDL), Lebanon’s central bank, for February 2011 show that payment cards are still gaining favor with Lebanese consumers. According to BDL, the number of payment cards in the country reached 1.69 million in February 2011, up by 7.3 percent from the same time last year. Of all plastic payment methods, credit cards experienced the highest year-on-year increase in February of 15.4 percent, now totaling 395,000, or around 23 percent of all issued cards. Prepaid and charge cards were up 9 percent from the year before, amounting to 10 percent of all payment cards. Debit cards still held 66 percent of the market — with 1.12 million in all — though they recorded just a 4.5 percent increase year-on-year. Point of sale purchases in February jumped 24 percent year-on-year.

Kafalat guarantees fall

Guarantees issued under the Lebanese Kafalat loan guarantee program dropped 23.21 percent year-on-year in first quarter of 2011. However, the average value per guarantee rose to $139,200, up 17.76 percent from an average of $118,200 a year earlier. The face value of guarantees issued in the first quarter of 2011 reached $41.9 million. Allocation of loans by sector saw the industrial sector in the lead with 39.87 percent of total guarantees. Loans to the agricultural sector, comprising 37.21 percent of total guarantees, took the biggest hit as they declined 41.97 percent from a year earlier. In contrast, tourism sector guarantees increased by a yearly 38.10 percent since end-March 2010, accounting for 19.27 percent of total guarantees. Geographic distribution of loans at the end of the first quarter showed that companies in Beirut and Mount Lebanon accounted for 50.5 percent of Kafalat loans. The Kafalat scheme has been noted internationally for its quality, including praise as best performing credit guarantee scheme in the Middle East and North Africa in a March 2011 report by the World Bank.

Lebanon’s life premiums up 15 percent in 2010

Total life insurance premiums in Lebanon increased 14.8 percent to $356.7 million in 2010, according to the annual insurance sector survey by Al Bayan magazine. The report said the 2010 growth was double the 7 percent increase achieved the previous year, adding that life insurance penetration in Lebanon stood at 0.9 percent of gross domestic product for 2010, at an insurance density of $89.2 per capita. Firms reporting higher life premiums vastly outnumbered losers as 27 out of 33 life providers posted gains, led by two firms claiming triple-digit gains. Market share concentration by Lebanon’s top five life insurers dropped by about five percentage points year-on-year to 59 percent in 2010, representing an aggregate value of life premiums of $210.3 million. Metlife ALICO ranked first in life premiums volume with $70.7 million, or 19 percent market share. The other companies in the top five for 2010 were Allianz SNA, Bancassurance, Arope and LIA with life premiums of $40.8 million, $37.5 million, $36.5 million and $24.8 million, respectively. Arabia Insurance reported the biggest growth, an 829 percent leap that propelled it from 15th to 7th place in one year. MedGulf saw the sharpest decline among the country’s top 10 insurers; its life premiums dropped 14.4 percent in 2010.

UAE IPOs rising, but slowly

In signs of life for Gulf Cooperation Council primary markets, three companies in April announced plans to sell shares through Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in 2011. Between May 1 and May 11, United Arab Emirates’ Eshraq Properties will be offering 55 percent of the company in an IPO worth $220 million, the first IPO on a UAE exchange by a real estate developer since Dubai’s Deyaar in 2007. Funds raised are expected to finance Eshraq’s developments, including the $2 billion Marina Rise on Al Reem Island. After a dry spell of no public offerings in more than two years in the UAE, the Eshraq flotation will be the Abu Dhabi Exchange’s third IPO in 2011, following two insurance-related offerings in February and April. While financial observers judge the return of primary markets positively, international firms have warned recently that political risk could deter investors.  In the two other new IPO announcements, Saudi Integrated Telecommunication Company (ITC) received approval from the country’s Capital Market Authority to offer 35 percent of its shares between May 2 and 8 in a bid to raise $93 million. In Oman, electricity producer SMN Power Holding said it is planning a 35 percent offering on the Muscat Securities Market in 2011; further details on the offering’s size and timing were not available.

May 28, 2011 0 comments
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Comment

Iraq emerging

by Riad Al-Khouri May 28, 2011
written by Riad Al-Khouri

Eight years after the American-led invasion of Iraq, the country’s business climate seems to finally be showing some substantive improvements. Granted, the essential quality for the country to re-emerge as a target for investors is physical safety and stability, and on that score the numbers at first sight don’t appear encouraging; the level of violence in Iraq in March more than doubled compared with February. According to statistics from official Iraqi sources, in March, 136 civilians and 111 Iraqi police and soldiers died in attacks across the country; in Baghdad alone, 79 civilians and 31 security personnel were killed: more than twice the previous month’s total. The current level of violence is, however, still far below what Iraq saw during the sectarian warfare peak of 2006-2007; and a suggestion as to why the violence grew recently is that relaxed security forces, over-confident that the situation is calm, are making their searches less vigilant. Hopefully, neither this nonchalance nor the violence will become a trend.

Despite the security slips in Iraq of late, in recent months there have been rising numbers of international organizations and foreign businesses heading for the country’s capital to set up shop. Among the former is the United Nations Development Program for Iraq — previously based in Amman — which is due to begin relocation to Baghdad this month. And the lifting of a travel ban to Iraq on officials of the Paris-based Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is a further indication of a potential ‘Baghdad Spring.’ In the private sector, interest in Iraq on the part of big multinational banks is also growing: at an OECD workshop on Iraqi infrastructure development, held in Jordan in March, the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) Group, Citibank and J.P. Morgan showed a keen interest in doing more business in Iraq. HSBC is already in the country through a majority holding in a local bank, and Citi has also been focusing more on Baghdad in the past few months.

Whatever political contortions and security issues may arise in Iraq, more business is certainly coming to the country. For example, the OECD event looked at vast projects to be undertaken, including an Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture plan to set up market complexes for the storage and distribution of farm produce. The recent announcement of an Islamic Development Bank grant for a feasibility study indicates that the project is under serious consideration.

Agriculture in particular could be the country’s new center of business attention (after the always-present focus on oil). Recovery in Iraq generally has not been matched by a revival of agriculture, once a mainstay of the country’s rural economy. Government wholesaling through the country’s creaky public distribution system is now increasingly recognized as problematic and technology, human capital and machinery in the sector lag behind as well. The scope for Iraq’s food production is enormous, and a focus on this kind of business would provide attractive solutions to internal migration, among other key issues plaguing the country.

Though a full recovery is not going to happen automatically or overnight, indications are now positive for the first time in decades — and certainly since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 — that an improved business climate in the country is beginning to attract interest in non-oil investment, which in turn will help businesses to prosper and reinforce a positive cycle. Physical security is of course crucial, so before rushing to book a flight to Baghdad (where planes no longer land in a “corkscrew” pattern dictated by security concerns) one must remember that this is still no Disney Land. However, the recent economic and political momentum means that the risks of doing business in Iraq are slowly being outweighed by the potentially enormous benefits. Investment climate tipping-points are difficult to spot and to analyze but Baghdad is now heading in the right direction.

Riad al Khouri is dean of the business school at the Lebanese French University in Erbil, Iraq, and a senior economist at the William Davidson Institute in the Ross School of Business of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

May 28, 2011 0 comments
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The tale of two Ammans

by Peter Speetjens May 28, 2011
written by Peter Speetjens

Jordan is often said to be divided, both demographically and politically, between so-called “real” Jordanians and those of Palestinian descent. Yet that is hardly the only fault line lurking below the relative peace that has reigned over the Hashemite Kingdom in recent decades.

The capital, Amman, for example, is like an apple split into two unequal halves. West Amman is rich and spacious, dotted with grand villas complete with lavish lawns and pools. Here one finds French supermarket chains, luxury hotels and foreign embassies. Here live the diplomats, aid workers and just about every Jordanian who “made it”. Here when they eat, the choice is between sushi, steak or pizza.

East Amman, on the other hand, is a giant beehive of cheap concrete in desperate need of a lick of paint. Here live most of Amman’s 2.8 million people on a variety of bread and beans. The city’s east and west meet at the Husseini Mosque in downtown which, though not even 100 years old, is one of the oldest buildings in the young capital. The mosque was also the center of recent demonstrations that have attracted a few thousand people — and nearly as many policemen. Yet so far people have not taken the streets en masse.

“I have no time for politics. I have three kids to feed,” said a taxi driver, Ahmad. To do so, he works an average of 10 hours per day, 6 days a week. Every morning, he rents his yellow cab for JD 24 ($33.8) and buys petrol for around $22. On a good day he goes home with nearly $30 in profit, on a bad one with about $10. “You know the difference between Bahrain and Jordan?” he asked. “In Bahrain people have money but no freedom. In Jordan they have freedom but no money.” Still, as if to illustrate the limit of liberty à la Jordanienne, he insisted that his full name not be used.

Based on 2008 figures, the 2010 Jordan Poverty Report determined the national poverty level as below an income of $80 a month for an individual, and below an income of $5,473 annually for an average family of 5.7 members. The average annual family income in 2008 in Jordan was just $8,706. The report concluded that the number of people living in extreme poverty in 2008 increased by 0.3 percentage points to 13.3 percent, despite the fact that gross domestic product that year increased by no less than 7.6 percent, prompting economist Yusuf Mansur to conclude that “economic growth has nothing to do with poverty reduction.”

Purchasing power in the different spheres of spending becomes clear at a market in east Amman, where one Jordanian dinar (equal to $1.4) will buy four pairs of large underwear, six pairs of socks, 10 kiwis or 10 kitchen knives “made in China”; for the same amount in west Amman one can buy half a hamburger in an American fast food joint. The rift between east and west, rich and poor, is perhaps more profound than between “real” Jordanians and “Palestinian” Jordanians, given that these groups live on either side of the city’s socio-economic divide.

However, the divide between haves and have-nots is also linked between capital and country, said Nawaf Tell, head of the Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) at the Jordan University. A recent CSS study concluded that the tribal regions of Ma’an in the south and Mafraq in the north of Jordan are by far the country’s poorest. For people living there, west Amman is like another planet, with even poor east Amman a step up the social ladder. According to Tell, the government’s development policy and constant focus on Amman is only exacerbating the divisions; the provinces have seen hardly any development and the north and south threaten to become a “chain of ghost cities” as the poor continue to migrate to the capital city.

“Amman does not have the resources to absorb such growth,” he said. In this era of regional unrest, one can only wonder how long this increasingly lopsided tale of two Ammans can remain a stable one.

PETER SPEETJENS is a Beirut-based journalist

May 28, 2011 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Rendez-vous with the rebellion

by Sam Tarling May 26, 2011
written by Sam Tarling

A Free Syrian Army fighter rests in a hill-top hideout near the Syrian city of Idlib [Photo: Executive/Sam Tarling]
The men are short of rocket propelled grenades, a key weapon in the FSA's arsenal [Photo: Executive/Sam Tarling]
FSA soldiers observe heavy fighting on a neighboring hilltop [Photo: Executive/Sam Tarling]
A member of the Free Syrian Army looks on as heavy fighting erupts on a hillside during an attack by his unit in the mountains of Idlib [Photo: Executive/Sam Tarling]
An FSA lieutenant assembles a remote trigger which will detonate the improvised explosive devices seen here [Photo: Executive/Sam Tarling]
An FSA fighter collects his weapons before heading out on an attack [Photo: Executive/Sam Tarling]
High demand and short supply has pushed prices for ammunition and weapons sky-high [Photo: Executive/Sam Tarling]
FSA soldiers go to great lengths to re-supply their base without being spotted by the Syrian Army [Photo: Executive/Sam Tarling]
An FSA fighter surveys his home in the town of Chatouriea [Photo: Executive/Sam Tarling]
An FSA soldier rests at a base near the Turkish border. Turkey, along with America, has recently pledged 'non-lethal' support for the Syrian opposition [Photo: Executive/Sam Tarling]

From the northern Syrian province of Idlib, a moment in the uprising
May 26, 2011 0 comments
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Real Estate

Venus towering over Phoenician past

by Karah Byrns May 3, 2011
written by Karah Byrns

The threat that cultural heritage faces in Beirut as a result of rising land prices and the scarcity of empty plots is a familiar theme. There seems to be no shortage of fresh cases to highlight and local and international media, as well as local NGOs devoted to preserving national heritage, are doing their part to raise the issue.

Over the last several weeks, Venus Real Estate has been in the spotlight over the discovery of what local news media has claimed is an ancient Phoenician port on “lot 1398”, an approximately 7,000-square-meter sitewhere the company is preparing to construct a luxurious three-tower high rise complex called Venus Towers. 

“I haven’t seen the site; it is closed to the public and even to archaeologists — this is what happens every time there is an important discovery in the Beirut town center,” said Leila Badre, museum director of the Archeological Museum of the American University of Beirut. The Directorate General of Antiquities (DGA) has been carrying out work on the site since the discovery of the ruins by the Ministry of Culture nearly two months ago. At present, the ministry is consulting with local and international experts to determine the value of the site, and as of April 27 five reports had been submitted, signifying that a final decision is coming soon. “We found slopes going down toward the sea that can be interpreted in many ways,” said caretaker Minister of Culture Salim Warde. “It might be a port, a shipyard, or even a quay, but it is surely something very interesting, and we are seeing how we can work with the owners of the land to save this site,” he said.

Over the month of April, An-Nahar criticized Venus Real Estate in two reports that cited numerous experts on the potential archeological value of the site. On April 27, Venus Towers issued an official statement to “clarify” the situation to the general public, threatening media outlets with legal action for making damaging accusations. The statement contends that the plot is too far from the sea to have been used as a port, and too far above sea level, but did not address any historic changes in sea level since the period when the ruins are thought to have originated from.

“The coast of Beirut today is not as it was over 2,000 years ago,” said Warde. “We know for a fact that over the last century this area was covered by stones at least four times. Before then, we don’t know how many times this occurred.” The last time land reclamation like this occurred was by Solidere, whose damage of historic sites was notorious during the post-civil war reconstruction boom. Disturbed by the situation and what he referred to as yet another challenge between the national interest and the private sector, member of Parliament Walid Joumblatt expressed his concern to Executive following the issuance of the Venus Real Estate statement. “I don’t believe a word they say; it’s all rubbish. They will find any excuse for the sake of a few square meters,” he said.

Prior to the publication of the statement from Venus Real Estate, Venus Towers spokesperson Wajih al-Bazri told Executive on April 25 that there was a great difference of professional opinion from archeological experts about the importance of the site. Bazri claimed that while local experts believe the site is important, the international expert brought by Solidere ruled the site unimportant. “The Ministry of Culture and Solidere are working together to get more opinions,” said Bazri. “There is no final opinion yet, but they are working to finalize as soon as possible to be able to go ahead with the project.”  He added that the real estate company will abide by the ruling of the Ministry of Culture, whatever it may be. In the worst case scenario, “we will build around it,” said Bazri, explaining that the ruins only cover about 1,000 square meters of land, then adding: “The newspapers are making a bigger fuss out of this than it really is.”

May 3, 2011 0 comments
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Real Estate

Funding’s new frontier

by Rayya Salem May 3, 2011
written by Rayya Salem

Lebanon has all it takes to be a haven for real estate investors; no crash in property prices is known to have ever driven desperate developers to leap off their office balconies.

Even when real estate financing bubbles were bursting in neighboring countries and across the Atlantic, the case for Lebanese real estate remained strong, with compelling fundamentals and more specifically, guaranteed tightness in land supply.

Traditional real estate funding — with cash, help of family, bank loans and some government-subsidized schemes — is as deeply entrenched in Lebanon as is the national preference for real estate as an investment. So far, what remains scarce within Lebanese borders is private equity (PE) real estate funds. But some entrepreneurial minds have placed their bets on fund-type private equity investing in the local real estate scene, arguing that Lebanon’s property boom (most of the $14 billion in FDI inflow since 2008 was funneled into real estate) and ongoing maturation of the sector are signaling opportune times for professional real estate private equity investments, also called REPEs.

Lebanon’s maturing market may have created the need for REPE services, as they also serve as an alternative to (tightening) debt financing. “The 50 million square meters of construction permits obtained since 2008 will drop their final products onto the market within the next three years,” says Ralph Chahine, the head of private equity for MENA Capital, a Beirut-based financial firm. “If we estimate that 70 percent of that number is sold, and that a small portion will remain non-built, the remaining number is large enough to pressure banks to make more calculated decisions.”

Currently managing three real estate private equity (REPE) funds in Lebanon (though registered in the island of Guernsey in the English Channel) and one Lebanese offshore dedicated to investment in Iraq, collectively worth over $225million, MENA Capital is one of Lebanon’s largest managers of REPE investments.

New kids on the block

Recently a new REPE player came to the table and is raising cash for its first project, a 23-story residential tower, Trabaud 1804, in Ashrafieh. The firm’s name is Capstone Investment Group, and its chief executive officer, Ziad Maalouf, states the company’s case in similar terms as MENA Capital’s Chahine. 

Now is the time for REPE in Lebanon, Maalouf says, “Money at the bank has been losing value; there are fears of inflation around the world, so people are looking for solid investments that they can also exit after a definite period of time, especially in a market that has good fundamentals and where real estate prices have not dropped.”

Private equity plays in real estate have emerged as institutional acquisitions of income-generating assets in developed markets, but their relatively aggressive, opportunistic model (which requires high capital investments to be locked in for a period of time) have higher risk-return profiles. Differences between investing in a REPE venture and partnering with a traditional real estate developer include the REPE’s systemic approach with a time-phased payout structure to the investor and a strong profit incentive for the REPE manager.   

 “We have the structure of the fund, without having to call it as a fund… because of the lack of proper fund regulations in Lebanon,” says Capstone’s Maalouf. “There are no ‘Lebanese domiciled’ funds investing in real estate, the ones in Lebanon [regulated by the central bank] are mostly money market funds. The laws, rules, regulations, support, back office and administration necessary to create and manage real estate funds in Lebanon leave much to be desired… so we opt to register outside [of the country].”

Capstone’s development management agreement (with the holding company which owns the land) works the same way as a fund, taking a management fee of 8 percent of construction costs. Carried interest is applied at 20 percent of the profits above a rate of return of 10 percent, meaning the fund manager will be eligible for a substantial share in profits that exceed a baseline return under the agreement with the investors.

The $45 million cost of Capstone’s first project (for land and construction) is financed by an equity-debt combination and the structure projects an internal rate of return of 25 percent or more for investors.

An investor committing a dollar in the fundraising phase (year 0 of a project) will get “back at least two dollars in year three or four; investors would double their investments in a period of three to four years,” claims Maalouf. So far, as half of the apartments (ranging from 290 to 445 square meters) have been pre-sold, revenues exceed $65 million.

PE investments in Lebanese real estate carry little risk as opposed to PE investment in other asset classes, according to Maalouf, because one can foresee an exit after a certain period of time — usually three years. “If I invest with an entrepreneur, I cannot get my money out of this company unless he takes his company public, or he sells his share to another company or liquidates his investments. In real estate’s worst case scenario, if you don’t sell the apartments, you can rent them out, and turn that investment into an income producing asset.”

Maalouf told Executive that Capstone applies “a transparent bidding process for all the tenders, and the decision is taken by [the board of directors] who are the representatives of the major investors in the project and meet monthly or as needed.”

Uphill battle

But there are nonetheless reasons why REPE and comparable schemes may face difficult market entry in Lebanon. As Lebanon does not have mutual funds, insurance companies, or other large players actively investing in PE, around 70 percent of investors in established funds like MENA Capital’s real estate funds are high net worth individuals (HNWI), “unlike developed markets where this percentage is more around 13 percent, or even the region where around 30 to 35 percent are HNWIs,” says Chahine.

Transparency of PE funds, which has been described as underdeveloped across MENA, is not exactly the Lebanese forte. Comparing promised returns or even comparing exit timings of two different funds is difficult anywhere, especially in Lebanon, even if the funds are registered outside.

The main other issue for REPE funds in Lebanon would be the limited exit options. Chahine said REPE may garner a slow and skeptical reception in Lebanon, especially if investors are asked to put their money into a family-owned and managed private equity company.

As Capstone settles into a nascent PE market, the firm is eyeing the central district for future projects. It has set a nearly $50 million budget to acquire land and construct a modern office tower in the vicinity of Solidere, “because we believe there is lack of modern office space in Beirut today,” says Maalouf.

Meanwhile, the changes in real estate demand in Lebanon are weighing on MENA Capital’s pending and future plans; “Certainly, we cannot afford to turn a blind eye on the changes in the market… in some of our projects, we did split some apartments to answer requests for smaller units. We are now working on a couple of projects in Lebanon with apartments ranging from 100 square meters to 250 square meters,” says Chahine.

May 3, 2011 0 comments
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Real Estate

Q&A – Joseph Mouawad

by Rayya Salem May 3, 2011
written by Rayya Salem

Joseph Mouawad, chairman of Mouawad Investment Group (MIG), has gradually earned his place among Lebanon’s top developers of residential properties, country clubs and mixed-use offices since the start of Lebanon’s post-civil war reconstruction effort. Two of his major ongoing projects, covering almost 90,000 square meters  in Faqra, will soon put his footprint on the famous Lebanese resort town. Executive chatted to the developer about his latest resort operations and his sway toward hospitality projects in Beirut.

After the success of Park Tower Suites in Ashrafieh, you seem to be gravitating towards more hospitality projects in Gemmayze, Saifi and Monot…

In our new residential project Monot 38 on Monot Street on land we acquired about a year ago, we will also have a boutique hotel, Monot Suites, of about 25 rooms, along with the residential tower of about 20 floors, which will consist of small to medium-sized residential units of 100 to 300 square meters, of which 35 percent is sold.

And in October of this year, Saifi Suites will function as a boutique hotel, offering 70 suites. From our previous experience at Park Towers, we were able to put up a good [internal] management team to manage the new hotels that are coming up.

Why hotels? Is the profit margin higher? Is there a gap in supply?

We believe there is shortage in hotel supply in Beirut. Even before the [civil] war, we had more rooms. We believe that building a hotel will be an added value for a long-term investment, especially when you have a prime location.

You have signed with Rotana to manage an upcoming Gemmayze hotel project, correct?

We are developing a new hotel project with Rotana’s new brand Centro, as the manager, on Rue Pasteur in Gemmayze. It will have a view to the port, and it’s a nice area that allows visitors to walk to trendy shops, bars and pubs. The restaurant in the hotel will cater to both hotel clientele and the Gemmayze crowd.

And why did you choose Rotana to run operations?

I found an opportunity in the new brand they’re putting up: the Centro brand. It is a  trendy budget business hotel that will cater mainly to business people and tourists, and Beirut has few three and four-star hotels so this will garner much demand, and their reservation system will help fill the 170 rooms. [In March, Rotana Hotels became the first Middle East hotel operator to sign an agreement with Google to display Rotana rates and availabilities on Google platforms.]

In Beirut,since [MIG’s]  The Palladium building [near Starco center] was finished three months ago, are there any new tenants?

Bank Audi rented around 7,000 square meters of office space, which will accommodate around 400 employees of the bank. But in terms of retail space, just recently, Santiago [womans clothing boutique] opened [in addition to Lanvin, Balmain, and Isabel Marant, which belong to the same owners, as well as Manasseh, the renowned Silverware store]. In terms of restaurants, in addition to Kampai [Asian restaurant] already open, we will also have Le Cocteau that is expected to open in June 2011. ..We are partners in both of them. We are now in the process of closing some other retail shops.

How much do you want to grow the hospitality wing of your activities?

We want, eventually, 50 percent of our activities to be under the umbrella of hotels and restaurants.

Since the banks are tightening their fists, how has your financing strategy changed overthe last few years?

Our debt-to-equity-ratio will start changing from now on because banks are demanding higher equity in the projects, as they believe the market is saturated. They are requiring 50 percent equity compared to 20 to 25 percent previously. Now we cannot count on presales as much, so we have to put in more equity.

The Oakridge residential resort is probably your largest residential project to date, sitting on about 46,000 square meters of land, 100 meters from Faqra Club. Is this kind of resort setup new to Faqra?

To me, there is nothing similar in the area to what we are delivering. [Oakridge] is different. We saw an opportunity to create a resort, not [just] chalets. The resort will consist of residences, town houses, villas, and it will have about 12,000 square meters of touristic facilities. That includes a spa, club, hotel, furnished apartments, indoor and outdoor pools, a restaurant, bar and children’s playground. We started construction about two years ago after buying the land in August 2008  and plan to deliver at the end of 2012. Today, around 60 percent of the project is already sold.

In a resort project like Oakridge, how do you anticipate how much demand there will be for the different residential facilities — villas, townhomes, chalets?

We try to anticipate demand from the existing market, so we look at the existing demand in the area of Faqra, and we try to meet this demand. But at the same time we bear in mind that we need to cater to all budgets; we don’t want to limit ourselves. In Faqra club, 10 years ago, the demand was only for big chalets and villas, but now the young generation is showing more interest and looking for smaller chalets so we try to cater to both budgets. In Faqra, most people buy a piece of land and then build for their own use. Very few are building commercial projects, the only project that was built in Faqra club is Clouds.

What does the price range look like for units in Oakridge?

We have an increase average price of $3600 per square meter now. There are some villas and townhouses, which we priced by unit not by square meter, so $2.2 million for the townhouse and around $3.2 million for the villas. These are sold on core and shell.

What is the plan for the Silver Rocks plot in Faqra?

Silver Rocks is a land development project, on a plot of about 40,000 square meters that we bought at the same time [as the Oakridge plot], in summer of 2008. It consists of 39 plots for sale and we already sold 60 percent. We decided to have a closed gated community and build a small clubhouse and swimming pool to be used by the residents. We are mainly selling plots to people who will build their own chalets, but of course, the design has to be approved by our company.

What’s the incentive to develop land and sell off plots, instead of building residences and selling them?

Many people prefer to buy a plot instead of a chalet. They consider a land purchase a safer investment for the long term.

What are these two large projects costing?

The total project cost for Oakridge is $45 million including land and construction. Silver Rocks costs around $10 million.

How would you characterize the swelling of supply in Faqra now as around nine residential and hotel projects are underway?

There are still plots of land in Faqra, but there are too many projects being built, so project development will definitely slow down and many projects under planning will be put on hold. The demand will pick up again once the political situation gets better.

Do you think prices will dim?

Cost of construction in Faqra area is high due to the weather conditions that allow only seven months of work per year and also due to higher cost in labor and transportation. The cost is at least 20 percent higher than [the cost of building in] Beirut. Prime lands are limited, which also led to a high land cost, so prices will not decline since the profit margin is not significant.

May 3, 2011 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Executive Insight – Welcoming Chinese inflation

by Fabio Scacciavillani May 3, 2011
written by Fabio Scacciavillani

The spectacular rebound of emerging markets after the recent recession was driven in no small part by China’s emergency stimulus package in late 2008, arguably the timeliest and the largest in the world (relative to gross domestic product). The pull of Chinese demand was powerful enough to revitalize international trade — severely curtailed by the crunch in trade finance — and to drag out of the hole many of the economies well integrated in the Chinese supply chain, from Malaysia to Korea, and Australia to Germany.

The flip side of this stimulus has been a worrisome boom in real estate prices (which has led many to scream “Bubble!”) and persistent inflationary pressures which have extended across Asia (excluding Japan),complicating the macro picture at the national and global level. Asian central banks (and also Latin American ones) until late last year were reluctant to aggressively raise interest rates, lest they clip the green shoots of recovery. But with the upturn in emerging markets, food and commodities prices world wideresumed their surge; since the beginning of this year this surge has been exacerbated by oil price reaction to the turmoil in North Africa. Amplifying this effect is the premature end, after Japan’s Fukushima disaster, of the much touted “nuclear renaissance” that was supposed to substantially curtail hydrocarbons in the world energy mix.

China remains to-date the epicenter of inflationary pressures, despite the fact that authorities were the first to react decisively by increasing reserve requirements up to 20 percent for top lenders, restricting credit to the real estate sector and hiking interest rates four times since October. Nevertheless, in March, Chinese inflation hit a three-year record of 5.4 percent per annum, while in India, which is also experiencing a generalized price surge, it reached almost 9 percent; across the emerging markets generally, from Korea to Brazil, price levels are overheated.

Conventional wisdom and mainstream policy advice suggests that the Chinese authorities should act even more aggressively to counter further price hikes, and indeed solemn pledges to this effect figure prominently in public statements by senior politicians. But China generally defies conventions and an alternative course of action appears to be gathering consensus within policy circles. The new five-year economic plan sets a 4 percent inflation target for this year, and Chinese authorities have signaled that in the medium term they would be comfortable with inflation between 4 percent and 5 percent, which represents a substantial increase compared to previous years.

Furthermore, national and local governments have enacted a spate of hefty salary increases: since the beginning of the year, 12 Chinese provinces and provincial-level municipal cities have raised their minimum wages. The average adjustment over the 12 provinces was 21 percent with the highest hike, 28 percent, being decreed in Chongqing, in central western China (outside the coastal belt where manufacturing is concentrated). Incidentally, thanks to a 20 percent rise, Shenzhen replaced Shanghai to become the city with the highest minimum monthly wage in China (approximately $203). If we consider a longer horizon, since last year 30 provinces raised the minimum wage, often by double digits.

These measures were justified by the need to attract labor from the inner regions and to improve living standards, an issue that had taken center stage in domestic politics after strikes and workers unrest spread across the country, threatening to become a widespread phenomenon.

Whether by happenstance or by design, it seems that an unorthodox policy recipe is emerging. One of the foremost issues confronting the Group of 20 countries is the rebalancing of the current-account surplus by China and Germany and other mercantilist oriented countries. The most vocal critique of China’s export-led strategy has been the United States, which (stirred by Congress) has used such criticism to push for a revaluation of the yuan.

The Chinese government and central bank are aware that an ever-increasing current-account surplus is not sustainable (the foreign exchange reserves have reached a walloping $3 trillion), but might be contemplating an alternative route; instead of revaluing the nominal exchange rate (as demanded by the US and others) they are increasing the real exchange rate.

By raising domestic wages they boost domestic inflation, thereby losing competitiveness, but Chinese workers feel the benefits more than foreign competitors. In essence, the Chinese government seems to be pursuing a redistributive policy in favor of the domestic population with the aim of boosting internal demand and reducing the current account surplus.

It is hard to say how this policy will turn out; it certainly carries risks, as once a price/wage spiral is triggered it becomes hard to control, but a few implications for the global economy and the Middle East are clear.

 

Over the pastthree decades China has become the world manufacturer and has been the mostpowerful force behind a relentless deflation in traded goods — reveled in bythe rest of the world — thanks to an almost inexhaustible supply of cheaplabor. This process is reverting, and with China’s inflation on the rise it isonly a matter of time before a global reverberation is felt.

If one adds the effects of money printing in the US and the need to monetize at least in part public debts in mature countries, foremost in the Eurozone, the next few years will present serious challenges for monetary policy; the word ‘stagflation’ is likely to make a comeback in everyday parlance. 

This change will not be a temporary adjustment, but will represent a structural shift in the global economic environment, affecting greatly the smaller economies in the Middle East and elsewhere. In particular, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will find themselves again ensnared, like in 2006-2008, in a monetary policy determined by the US Federal Reserve to serve its domestic goals, but utterly inadequate for the conditions of GCC economies.

Furthermore, the central banks and the sovereign wealth funds that manage the accumulated export revenues are typically exposed to fixed income securities denominated in US dollars. At present, the safe haven status and the anemic credit conditions have held bond prices remarkably stable (excluding of course troubled countries such as Greece or Portugal). But when markets realize that higher inflation is not a blip, the adjustment could be traumatic for fixed income securities. There are no simple solutions to this kind of tectonic shift, but a revamping of the GCC’s common currency project could not be more timely. A degree of flexibility in monetary policy and a new strong international currency would be in the best interests of the oil exporters and also indirectly, those of other countries in the region.

The surge in Chinese wages will also lead domestic consumption to replace exports as an engine of growth. This swing has a long course to run as private consumption represents a remarkably low percentage of China’s GDP. The effects of the Chinese boom have thus far benefited countries and companies embedded in China’s supply chain, but from now on the effects of the stimulus could reach those countries and companies that cater to Chinese consumers, in particular in the provision of durable goods for the expanding middle class — washers, cars, furniture and high end services, such as tourism, healthcare and financials.

A benevolent interpretation posits that, far from being a serious worry, inflation spurred by the loose wage policy tolerated — and often encouraged — by the Chinese authorities could be another step in the long march toward better quality of life within China and the harbinger of a great leap forward for the world economy.

 

Fabio Scacciabillani is chief economist at the Oman Investment Fund

May 3, 2011 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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