Executive Magazine

Food prices in check

by Executive Staff November 3, 2010

written by Executive Staff

Food prices in check - Lebanon Last month the cabinet endorsed a measure to allow for price controls on food products that would assign levels of “acceptable profits,” according the Agriculture Minister Hussein Hajj Hassan. The ministry reported that prices of tomatoes have risen by almost 100 percent in the past four months alone, with one variety up as much as 400 percent. Hassan also attacked the policy of former Minister of Economics and Trade Sami Haddad for issuing a ministerial decree that annulled a previous legislative decree that had set a profit margin of 27 percent for middlemen dealing in various foodstuffs and household items. The minister also stated that he expected meat prices to remain high until after Eid el-Adha. Hassan said that his aim was to lower the import-export ratio for food in the country from 80:20 to 60:40.

November 3, 2010 0 comments

Finance

Banking Special – Asking for the moon

by Emma Cosgrove November 3, 2010

written by Emma Cosgrove

When Beirut’s wealth managers talk about the financial crisis, their language is decidedly emotional. They speak of the “support” they gave their clients as they watched their portfolios crumble. They say that their clients “suffered,” that they were “hurt” and “scarred.” Clients felt betrayed and blindsided, as “a major part of these losses were derived from risks that they were unaware of,” said Dory Hage, head of advisory and asset allocation at Banque Libano Francaise.

Now that the bloodletting is mostly over, the worldwide economic recovery has created a unique financial climate in which wealth managers and their clients are feeding off the slowly healing global economy to mend their own fortunes even quicker.

But while they may both be in a far happier place than they were a year ago, the travails they went through together have changed the nature of the game.

According to consultancy firm Capgemini’s annual World Wealth Report for 2010, the number of high net-worth individuals (HNWIs) — those with over $1 million in investable capital — worldwide grew by 17.1 percent in 2009 after decreasing by 14.9 percent in 2008. The total fortune of these individuals also grew last year, increasing 18.9 percent from 2008 to reach $39 trillion.

But in the Middle East, the number of HNWIs only grew by 7.1 percent and the collective fortune of the region increased by just 5.1 percent. The region’s HNWIs are regaining their wealth slower than much of the rest of the world, and they’re not happy about it. Lebanese investors in particular are proving to be an especially intractable bunch.

The Where

George Tabet, head of private banking at BLOMInvest said he’s seen a reflexive abandoning of foreign banking hubs in favor of returning home to Lebanon’s alluring interest rates.

“Big clients used to put a big part of their money in big banks in Switzerland, Luxembourg or Singapore. Now, after the crisis hit the big banks of the world, they [decided] to move a big part of this money to Beirut,” he said.

Investors we drawn by the high returns offered on deposits in local currency (averaging 5.72 percent in August according to Banque du Liban, Lebanon’s central bank.) Even dollar rates at Lebanese banks remain attractive on a global scale, with the weighted average rate on offer at 2.78 percent as of August. And though these rates attracted record capital inflows into Lebanese banks, they also raised expectations and demands from clients who have grown more risk averse but still want to make higher returns than their bank account can provide.

The Who

After a client decides which institution will guard what is left of his piggy bank, he has to decide how much control he wants over how his cash is invested. And opinions differ as to which way clients are tending.

Some say that discretionary clients, those who turn all their investment decisions over to a wealth manager, have become more prevalent as clients have realized that they have neither the knowledge nor the time to manage their own money in what have proven to be complicated and volatile times.

Nael Raad, deputy general manager of Ahli Investment Group Lebanon is of this belief. “In these kind of markets you can really get hurt. I think people tend more to give their money to asset managers. They are less trusting in their own capabilities.”

Naji Mouaness, head of consumer banking at Standard Chartered Bank Lebanon agreed that some form of discretionary relationship leads to better results.

“There is a science behind investing, and a traditional do-it-yourself approach driving conventional decisions may often not lead to the best result,” he said. “Deciding where to invest and investing is just half the job done, since our needs will evolve over time… regularly monitoring and re-balancing your portfolio is very important so that it is always in line with your changing requirements.”

Others claim that after incurring the losses of the past two years, clients have never been more insistent that every decision regarding their portfolio be their own.

Roula Habis, general manager of Middle East Capital Group, like most of the managers Executive consulted for this report, prefers that clients be involved in deciding the course of their portfolio. “Even if the market goes down, they will understand why their portfolio went down. If you just manage their money discretionarily, you’ll be totally responsible.”

Just as clients’ preferences as to who controls their portfolio have shown conflicting trends, mangers say that their financial behavior has been similarly erratic.

“People either liquidated their portfolios and went into real assets like real estate here in Lebanon because there was a boom, or they took more risk and started trading their portfolios,” said Mohammed al-Hamidi, managing director of AM Financials.

The risk-taking clients looking to take advantage of market volatility forced wealth managers to change the nature of their jobs. “The period where there is a boom and bust is becoming shorter and shorter. And the reaction of the markets, because of technology, is becoming much faster and much more severe… we have to be more agile,” said Hamidi.

With this volatility, many of the traditional safe stores for capital have lost their utility, making way for other asset classes whose relative volatility seems less in such unstable markets.

“For the last two years or so, more conservative investments proposals were requested by clients; fixed income products, bonds, inflation-hedged products and the like,” said Reto Bartels of UBS’s Beirut representative office.

“Bond prices went up and more risky asset classes like equities became cheaper. In fact, equities look rather inexpensive today, and the next trend might be that the risk appetite of the investor is coming back again and investments in equities and commodities might increase, with rising prices as a consequence.”

Beirut’s financial minds all have their opinions on where these trends are going and how to seize the market as it morphs with fits and starts into whatever the brave new world of the financial recovery will look like. Until we reach that high ground again, the traumas of the crisis will remain fresh in client’s minds, and fully understanding current operating conditions is as important as ever.

To address this need, Executive has pooled the expertise of the best minds in Beirut to help investors be the masters of their own fortunes.

November 3, 2010 0 comments

Society

Bags of style

by Emma Cosgrove November 3, 2010

written by Emma Cosgrove

Black ballistic cloth, the tough synthetic nylon beloved of luggage designers and flak jacket makers, doesn’t immediately bring to mind images of exotic destinations and the glamour of travel. More likely it recalls long layovers in airline lounges and sleepless nights on long haul flights — not the rich or playful image a luxury brand might prefer.

But for Tumi Chief Executive Officer Jerome Griffith, black ripstop nylon is better than all the calfskin leather and fine silk in the world.

“I said to the design group, ‘love black ballistic, it is what people know you for so be happy with it’,” said Griffith, sitting among a sea of dark shiny cloth in his new downtown boutique on Fakhry Bey Street in Beirut souks, which opened last month.

But while Tumi’s loyal aficionados may recognize the brand’s signature material, not everyone is familiar with this luxury luggage maker.

“Our biggest challenge is becoming more widely known. Even in our home market, the United States, we only have a 39 percent recognition rate which is relatively low. Now, if you’re a business class customer and a world class traveler, you know what Tumi is, but that’s not the average person,” said Griffith.

The brand attempts to make up for this by keeping the right company, with the new downtown boutique sitting alongside Louboutin and Lanvin stores, and guaranteeing that no one else can offer exactly the same product.

Outside of the latest anti-aging potions and a few luxury watch gizmos, the glamorous inhabitants of the downtown retail machine probably don’t spend much of their profits on research and development. But in the world of luxury travel goods, the lightest, most durable, most innovative products are the ones that often determine a brand’s prowess and success.

“We have over 100 patents on different inventions,” said Griffith. He pointed out zippers that fix themselves, and swivel handles for rolling suitcases. He also said that his research and development “guy” had finished new ergonomic backpack straps, which will surely be patent pending soon.

But this is not enough, which is why Griffith has managed to forgo the ubiquitous exclusivity contract with his boutique partners at the Chalhoub group in favor of exposing as many eyes to the brand as possible. Even before opening their store in downtown, Tumi already had a boutique in the airport, which Griffith described as “high volume” and a shop-in-shop at Aishti.

So, if Tumi gets their way, black ballistic nylon will be the fashion accessory for the well heeled and well wheeled at Beirut airport next summer. Between product innovations, strategically placed stores and eye-catching opening party celebrations involving guest spray-painting suitcases, they may just get their wish.

November 3, 2010 0 comments

Society

Q&A with Angelo Gaja

by Caroline Anning November 3, 2010

written by Caroline Anning

Angelo Gaja’s family has been producing quality wines made from the unique Piedmontese Nebbiolo grape in the Barbaresco and Barolo areas of Piedmont, Italy, for four generations. More recently they have acquired two vineyards in Tuscany, expanding the family business to include more of Italy’s regional varieties as well as non-indigenous varieties such as Chardonnay. Executive met the master winemaker in Beirut as he visited Vintage Wine Cellar to talk old worlds and new markets.

E Firstly, what’s your opinion on the current state of the international wine market?

We consider Europe to be the cradle of wine, but in the last 30 years there was an expansion of interest in many different countries — what we call the new world. Many producers in new countries — Chile and Argentina and Australia and so on — now compete with France in producing… wines made through international grape varieties… basically Cabernet, Merlot, Pinot noir and Chardonnay.

These countries initially started producing wines for [domestic consumption], but now they are producing wines for export. So today, even France is facing competition, Bordeaux is facing competition — but not the top Bordeaux, top Bordeaux is fantastic quality and is very strong…

And what about the [financial] crisis? In the last two years, we have seen, especially in the United States and England — which were mostly affected by the crisis — and partly in Europe, consumers wanting to drink less expensive wines.

On the other hand, in Asia, in Brazil, in Russia, where consumers are relatively new and they have new money, there is an interest in consuming high price wines and quality wines. So this year, Bordeaux is selling future Bordeaux and the main market is China.

E How does Italy stay competitive in comparison to the new world wine producers?

Italy is the largest producer of wine in the world in terms of volume, and has the second highest price per liter after France. France has a higher average price per liter, but Italy in terms of volume sells 40 percent more than France, so it’s a big difference.

Italy improved enormously in the last 30 years. I believe that this is due to different factors. First of all, in Italy there are 35,000 wineries, which is an enormous number, and the large majority are small wineries. This is a very important human factor — these people are able to take their suitcases and fly over the world to talk about their wines. This is very important in growing the culture of Italian wines [abroad].

The second factor is that Italy has the largest number of grape varieties in the world. This means we make wines with a different taste, with a different provenance, made in a different way, and this diversity is very important to match with different kinds of cuisine.

E You mentioned smaller wine producers taking their suitcases around the world to discover new markets – is that what you’re doing here in Lebanon? Do you see the Lebanese market as receptive to Italian wine?

My goal is to build a brand. It’s important that the wine is in many different markets, and it’s important to find good people that have the culture of selling such a wine, that are not pushing me to provide a huge quantity, because we can’t, but is proud of having a bottle of Gaja and is able to introduce it in a few restaurants, a few wine shops and to some special private customers.

E How do you think Lebanon could go about better promoting and selling its wines internationally?

I believe it’s the same for every area. First of all, it’s important to have producers with personality, with character, dedicated to wine. Then after, for these people to survive, they must understand that they cannot only sell their wines in the domestic market, they have to travel. This is what we Europeans did. So it is important to start travelling and to find in the free market, maybe in Asia or Europe or the US, customers who are interested. Because they exist absolutely.

November 3, 2010 0 comments

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Bibi’s iron wall

by Peter Speetjens November 3, 2010

written by Peter Speetjens

The dream of Eretz Yisrael (Greater Israel) is as alive as ever in the Jewish state. And to make that dream a reality, Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu has been using a time-honored Israeli negotiating strategy: appear reasonable, while making impossible demands to gain time in which to change facts on the ground.

Bibi’s latest demand — that the Palestinian Authority (PA) must recognize Israel as a Jewish homeland in exchange for reinstating a temporary freeze on Israeli settlement construction on land that is supposed to form the future Palestinian state — should be seen in that light.

The PA recognized Israel as a sovereign state as long ago as the 1993 Oslo Accords. To further define it now as a “Jewish state” would have compromised the status of the nearly two million Israeli Arabs, as well as the millions of Palestinian refugees around the region who demand their right of return be recognized. It was impossible for the PA to concede this, and the Israeli prime minister knew it.

Thus Bibi effectively halted the talks before they had even started. No doubt Zeév Jabotinsky, the godfather of rightwing Zionism and the Likud party would have been proud. Born in 1880 in Odessa, Jabotinsky believed that the new Israel ought to cover both banks of the River Jordan. To achieve that goal, he introduced the concept of the “iron wall.”

Having analyzed relations between the Arabs and early Zionists, Jabotinsky wrote in 1923: “Every indigenous people will resist alien settlers as long as they see any hope of ridding themselves of the danger of foreign settlement. This is how Arabs will behave and go on behaving as long as they possess a gleam of hope that they can prevent ‘Palestine’ from becoming the Land of Israel.”

According to him, the colonization process would only succeed if it continued regardless of the “the mood of the natives,” whereby settlement should take place under the protection of a force “that is not dependent on the local population, but behind an iron wall which they will be powerless to break down.”

Jabotinsky’s metaphorical wall of military and political might would crush Palestinian hopes to turn the tide and the “no, never” slogan of the Arab hardliners would make way for voices willing to compromise.

In 2000, Avi Shlaim, one of Israel’s leading new historians, borrowed Jabotinsky’s concept as a title for his book in which he analyzed the relations between Israel and the Arab world throughout the 20th century. According to him, both Israel’s Labor and Likud parties have adopted the iron wall approach in their dealings with the Arabs.

Shlaim slams the prevailing view in the West that Israel wants peace while the Arabs function as deal breakers. He offers one example after the other, in which the Syrians, Jordanians, Egyptians and Palestinians were in fact willing to compromise, yet Israel refused to talk business. This was as true for Ben Gurion in the early days of the Israeli state as for Menachem Begin in his dealings with the Palestinian Liberation Organization in the 1980s and Netanyahu today.

It is telling that the guru of the Israeli left, Ben Gurion, once wrote: “It’s not in order to establish peace that we need an agreement. Peace for us is a means. The goal is the complete and full realization of Zionism. Only after total despair on the part of the Arabs… may the Arabs possibly acquiesce in a Jewish Eretz Israel.”

By paying lip service to American demands to make concessions, while at the same time demanding the impossible from the Palestinians, Bibi keeps both the iron wall and the Israeli dream alive.

Almost as soon as the talks were halted, he approved the construction of more than 200 new housing units in East Jerusalem.

Ironically, the iron wall doctrine fits perfectly with the “Road Map for Peace” proposed by the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations in 2002, which states that the final Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement will take into account ‘facts on the ground’ — even if that means there is de facto nothing left on which to build a Palestinian state.

PETER SPEETJENS

is a Beirut-based journalist

November 3, 2010 0 comments

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ElBaradei’s boycott gamble

by Josh Wood November 3, 2010

written by Josh Wood

In Cairo’s Garbage City — as with many other places in Egypt — there is little optimism about the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. “We don’t know anybody. We only know Mubarak,” says Hani Shanouda, a 26 year-old member of Cairo’s 60,000-strong Coptic Christian garbage collecting community, the Zabbaleen. Like many others in this slum, Shanouda will most likely not be voting on either ballot.

In Egypt’s current situation it is increasingly difficult to discern between those who did not vote as a political statement and those who stayed away from the polls for other reasons. In 2005’s parliamentary elections, less than nine million Egyptians voted — representing almost a third of registered voters but only about 11 percent of Egypt’s population of 77.5 million at the time. The presidential elections that year saw only seven million go to the polls.

There are a number of reasons why Egyptians don’t vote. A lifetime of rigged elections and quasi-dictatorship makes voting seem inconsequential — Egypt’s young population means that, like Shanouda, the majority of Egyptians have never experienced a regime other than Mubarak’s and his National Democratic Party, which have ruled since 1981. Also, with 40 percent of the country living on less than $2 per day, simply putting food on the table often trumps political concerns.

A boycott of November 28th’s parliamentary polls has been urged by Nobel Prize winner and former International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei. He returned to Egypt with political ambitions earlier this year and says a poor show at the polls will expose the fraudulent nature of the country’s elections and spur democratic reform.

However, ElBaradei has been accused of being out of touch with Egypt’s masses. Calls for a boycott could give these accusations credence, showing that ElBaradei’s brand of opposition is more akin to the flash-in-the-pan, internet-based, intellectual-driven opposition groups composed of the upper and middle classes, such as the ‘April 6 Movement’ that caused a small stir in 2008. While Western observers may applaud ElBaradei’s calls for a boycott as a brave step toward democracy, it could prove entirely detrimental to his movement and leave him on the outskirts of Egypt’s political arena.

Attempts by ElBaradei’s National Coalition for Change to get the country’s numerous opposition groups onto the same page have been hindered by the Muslim Brotherhood, who will field their own candidates in November’s elections. With the group still officially banned by the Egyptian government, Brotherhood candidates have run as independents in the past and currently hold 88 out of 454 seats in parliament, making the Islamist party the strongest officially-represented opposition movement in the country.

Unlike ElBaradei, the Brotherhood is more in touch with ordinary Egyptians and has built much of its support base through providing community services to those ignored by the state. While remaining cautious in the political realm the Brotherhood has still managed to make significant political gains, as evidenced by the number of seats it occupies in parliament.

For any opposition groups though, the election cycle — which starts this month — will be an uphill battle. The Egyptian government has already begun cracking down on dissenters, arresting many Brotherhood members in recent weeks. In October, the government announced that companies that send out mass text messages would require a license — a blow to the opposition, which relied heavily on SMS to mobilize supporters in a country where 60 million people have mobile phones. Despite calls for election monitors from Egyptian civil society actors, the United States and other international entities, it looks unlikely that any such measures will be taken.

Whatever the media hype, anti-Mubarak protests this year have been small and tame compared to the tens of thousands of demonstrators that ground Cairo to a standstill in years past. In this atmosphere, prospects for opposition gains remain slim, and thus it is unlikely that any real change will happen in Egypt soon.

Still, with next year’s presidential elections likely to be a wash (in 2005, Mubarak won a whopping 88.6 percent of a vote widely regarded as rigged), this month’s parliamentary elections are the best shot opposition groups have at making any real gains in the near future.

JOSH WOOD is a freelance journalist based in Beirut

November 3, 2010 0 comments

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Tea Party topography

by Michael Young November 3, 2010

written by Michael Young

This month’s mid-term elections in the United States will show us the direction the country will head in the coming two years and indicate the future shape of American foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East.

One factor determining electoral outcomes will be the fate of the disparate Tea Party movement, which has disturbed the Republican Party hierarchy and liberal-left America alike. And yet shorn of its more troublesome qualities, including its embrace of the opportunistic, demagogical former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, the shift toward the religious right and its increasingly nativist reflexes, the Tea Party is somehow a healthy initiative. Many American voters are understandably worried about the potential tax burden imposed by the rescue package for the financial crisis of 2008, as well as the high cost of Obama’s healthcare policy.

The Tea Party — a loose gathering of groups sharing a dissatisfaction with government as it is being run today — was named for the Boston Tea Party of 1773, when American colonists protested being taxed by a British parliament in which they were not represented. The mantra “no taxation without representation” has entered the American political lexicon and is at the heart of the democratic capitalist social contract. Congressional elections will show whether President Barack Obama passes that test.

But where the Tea Party will be tested, and where it must pass its own test, is in the particulars of a capitalist culture. Will the movement be able to avoid the pull of its extremes and defend free minds and free markets? And what will this mean for the United States in the world?

Populist and progressive movements have a venerable legacy in the US. The notion of reform, like the implicit mistrust of state power, is a recurring theme in American history, particularly in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, when the US was transformed from an agrarian society into an industrial-capitalist one. As Richard Hofstadter observed in ‘The Age of Reform,’ many of the demands of the American reform movement ended up being implemented even if the political parties that gave rise to such demands disappeared without a trace.

But there was always a nativist quality to these movements standing against what Americans have regarded as part of their national character: domestic inclusiveness and an urge to spread liberal values and freedom abroad. Likewise, the Tea Party movements have tended to look inwards. They have supported limiting immigration into the US; their fear of government over-expenditure has made them increasingly wary of costly foreign adventures, not least the wars in the broader Middle East; some polls suggest they are mistrustful of Obama’s engagement of Muslim countries; and on social issues Tea Party groups lean toward the conservative.

The significant role played among Tea Party groups by Palin and other right-wing spokespersons, like the organizational power of the religious groups, means the movement is not likely to veer greatly from this path. However, to reduce everything to right-wing, left-wing terms is to over simplify. The Republican establishment has also been a target of the Tea Party. In that sense, the movement doubles as an anti-elite phenomenon.

America is unlikely to be overcome by the Tea Party, and the movement’s haphazard structure may ultimately prove to be its downfall, unless it can be reorganized behind a presidential campaign. This seems to be Palin’s aim. However, even if the movement were to concentrate on advancing legitimate demands for greater fiscal discipline, the outcome would be a more modest America abroad, both militarily and in the spread of liberal values.

Oddly enough Hofstadter’s observations about American reform movements of the past may apply once again. Though the Tea Party is hostile to Barack Obama, the president appears to have largely accepted the fiscal restraint argument to justify cutting American foreign expenses, especially in Iraq and even Afghanistan, where he has sought mightily to avoid an open-ended conflict that would dramatically drain American resources. The US is changing, and not surprisingly, the Middle East is changing as a consequence.

November 3, 2010 0 comments

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Cityscape’s sinking feeling

by Angela Giuffrida November 3, 2010

written by Angela Giuffrida

The man playing the gold-plated piano on the Meydan stand at this year’s Cityscape exhibition in Dubai was reminiscent of a scene in the blockbuster film Titanic: as the famous ship sunk, the band played on.

The pianist was the only reminder of the exuberance that used to define this property show. Once upon a time, crowds came from near and far to get a glimpse of the ambitions of Dubai’s property developers.

Enticed by glitzy displays of model cities, they queued for hours at stands, eager to put down a deposit on a property that was yet to be built and which they probably couldn’t afford. Developers spent millions of dirhams pulling out all the stops to ensure their wares received the attention they needed. As competition intensified towards the middle of 2008 in the run-up to that year’s extravaganza, the chief executive of one newly created developer even alluded to the possibility of the singer Madonna gracing his stand with her presence at the event that October. While celebrities including the actor Antonio Banderas and racing driver Michael Schumacher were actually seen doing the rounds of the exhibition halls that year, there was no sign of the material girl. However, even as new, flashy projects were announced, signs of nervousness among investors began to creep through the showcases of Cityscape Dubai 2008. Just a few weeks after the show, which has now been rebranded Cityscape Global, property prices in some areas of Dubai fell by as much as 40 percent.

The global financial crisis had caught up with the emirate. By the end of that year, hundreds of projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars were cancelled or put on hold while thousands of jobs were cut across the property and affiliated construction sectors. The same developer who claimed a close connection with Madonna suddenly went out of business.

Developers who had once enjoyed easy credit had to wake up to the new reality, and quickly. Rather than rushing to the bank to cash deposit checks, they were instead summoned to deal with disputes raised by unhappy property buyers, who were coming to terms with the reality that they had plowed money into buildings that would never be built.

Strapped for cash, developers have also struggled to make payments to their construction suppliers, with many taking legal action.

Still, it hasn’t all been bad news. A lot has happened over the past two years to clean up the property sector. Dubai’s Real Estate Regulatory Authority has been swift to implement new regulations, while developers keen to protect their reputation have helped property buyers consolidate their investments.

Projects are also starting to be revived, and Nakheel, the Dubai World-owned developer that is responsible for a large share of the emirate’s property development, said at the end of September it would complete its debt restructuring by the end of the year. Tamweel, one of the country’s largest mortgage providers, will also soon resume lending after Dubai Islamic Bank increased its stake in the firm.

There are still challenges ahead, with a potential oversupply of property one of the biggest threats to recovery. The most startling information to emerge from this year’s Cityscape was that another 9,000 homes would flood the market by the end of this year, while a further 35,000 homes will come on stream next year, according to figures from property consultant Jones Lang LaSalle.

But probably the greatest hurdle is reviving confidence among property investors. Thousands of people have been stung, with many now using events like Cityscape to vent their frustration on hard-to-reach developers or find fellow investors in the same predicament. Buyers will only re-enter the market when they believe the issues have truly been resolved.

The collapse of Dubai’s property sector can hardly be compared to the catastrophe of the Titanic tragedy in terms of loss of life, but it’s going to take a lot more than soothing music to lift the spirits of those who have had their fortunes sunk.

ANGELA GIUFFRIDA is a property correspondent in Dubai

November 3, 2010 0 comments

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Greeks bearing gifts

by Peter Grimsditch November 3, 2010

written by Peter Grimsditch

The fallout from Ankara’s continuing and widening estrangement from Israel has seen some unaccustomed diplomatic bedfellows cozying up together in recent weeks. Close military ties between the two states were ruptured when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered a ban on joint military exercises. He also insisted on searching for sources other than Israel for unmanned aircraft used in assaults on Kurdish guerrillas based in northern Iraq.

The rift originated from Turkish protests against the Israeli attacks on Gaza in the winter of 2008-2009 in which 1,400 Palestinians were killed. It reached a crescendo in May of this year when Israeli commandos stormed a Turkish-led aid flotilla heading for Gaza, killing nine Turks (including a dual United States-Turkish citizen) and seriously wounding around 50 others.

Bereft of its usual war games partners, the Turkish Air Force teamed up with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army last month for exercises at Konya in Central Anatolia. The pairing was bizarre in that it appears to be the first time that a member of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has engaged in military exercises with the Chinese. According to the United States Defense Department, any worries that Turkey might reveal military secrets were carefully avoided by their use of F4 Phantom warplanes instead of the much more modern F15. Since the F4 was first manufactured in 1958, this seems to have been a prudent course. Not that the Turks were likely to learn too much either. For a latter-day replay of an aerial Agincourt, the Chinese used Su-27 Flankers, which are of a slightly newer 1982 generation of fighters.

The exercises coincided with a visit to Turkey by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, at the head of a delegation seeking to triple two-way trade to $50 billion a year by 2015.

Meanwhile, Israel accepted the opportunity to partner for aerial combat practice with Turkey’s erstwhile nemesis, Greece. As the two air forces conducted a joint drill over southern Greece, politicians on the ground signed the first Greek-Israeli bilateral pact for 60 years. This is a turnaround for Athens, which has traditionally been noted for its Arab sympathies more than its leanings toward Tel Aviv. This may well have been why two of the ships in the eight-strong Gaza aid flotilla in May were crewed by Greeks and one, Eleftheri Mesogios, was even Greek-flagged. The ships were carrying humanitarian aid and trying to break the military blockade imposed on Gaza by the Israeli military.

Although all the flotilla deaths were on the Turkish vessel Mavi Marmara, the Greeks on board the Sfendoni and the Eleftheri Mesogios were also given a rough welcome. According to a report commissioned by the UN Human Rights Council and published at the end of September, passengers and crew on both vessels had taken a decision to offer only passive resistance to their Israeli boarders, for example standing with linked arms around the bridge. Despite this, says the report, many were beaten. One woman who refused to hand over her passport was punched in the stomach, a man had his leg broken and the captain of the Sfendoni was kicked in the back, punched in the face and burned with an electroshock weapon.

The report, labeled by Aaron Leshno Yaar, Israel’s permanent representative to the UN Mission in Geneva, as “superfluous… unnecessary and unproductive” before it was published, goes on to catalogue a range of ill-treatment received by flotilla members once on

Israeli soil. These incidents include handcuffing seriously injured patients to hospital beds, confinement for hours on end without access to toilet facilities, physical and verbal abuse as well as the confiscation of personal items, including money intended for distribution among the Palestinians. The report also claims that much of the money has not been returned — nor indeed have cameras, recording equipment and other personal belongings been given back. This would make Israeli civil and military security personnel common thieves as well as any other charges that could be brought against them.

Yet, none of this seemed to interfere in the development of the closest contacts Israeli and Greek politicians have had in six decades. Perhaps it depends on what kind of Greeks are bearing what kind of gifts, and to whom.

PETER GRIMSDITCH is Executive’s

Istanbul correspondent

November 3, 2010 0 comments

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The Lebanese art of distraction

by Sami Halabi November 3, 2010

written by Sami Halabi

For several excruciating months the Lebanese press has been subjecting us all to a whirlwind of speculation over the prospect that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) will issue an indictment accusing, in one way or another, Hezbollah of being involved in the 2005 killing of former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri and many others. It is now all too clear that the “informed sources” quoted in various media outlets who told us with such certainty that an indictment would be issued by mid-October were wrong. This deadline passed without incident and yet the media conjecture continues, fueling the perpetual fear of sectarian civil strife.

The debate has reached fever pitch, with everyone from the American Secretary of State Hilary Clinton to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad throwing in their two cents, and politicians from both sides of Lebanon’s political divide holding endless press conferences. But as the STL has descended into farce, Lebanon’s real problems have — as usual — taken a backseat.

As we wait for Damascus, Riyadh, Tehran and Washington to decide on our “post-indictment” fate and our supposed leaders bicker over “false witnesses,” we should pause to ponder why we have allowed the STL to take progressive policy reform hostage. Scratch beneath the surface and what has everyone so hot under the collar reveals itself as little more than political posturing, hyperbole and the dark arts of distraction and deception.

Firstly, it is nothing less than comical to talk about witnesses before an indictment is issued, as no one yet knows whose testimony will be considered. The prosecutor has not announced who will be used as a witness or who will be accused; the furor is supposition.

What’s more, calls to try the ‘false witnesses’ in the Judicial Council — a permanent tribunal of five senior judges and no jury that adjudicates threats to national security based on a cabinet decision and therefore violates international judicial norms — is a testament to how far we are from real judicial reform or being able to ever realize “the truth.”

Even more illogical is the dichotomy at the heart of Hezbollah’s position: On the one hand the party has called for those who tried to contaminate the STL with false testimony be held accountable, but on the other it has accused the tribunal of being illegitimate and called for it to be scrapped. Hezbollah emphasizing the importance of the veracity of witness testimony automatically confers some degree of legitimacy to the proceedings and, ultimately, the outcome they lead to. They can’t have it both ways.

On the other side of the fence, the so-called Hariri camp recently admitted politics motivated it to wrongly accuse Syria of involvement in the 2005 assassinations, while rumors abound of a collusion between the March 14 movement and the original prosecutor. Now, incredibly, they insist that the institution’s credibility has not been damaged.

Given the absurdity of these and other acts in the STL tragicomedy, the fact that both political camps continue to propagate the idea that at any moment the tribunal could cause the government to crumble, taking the country with it, is telling of how far they will go to avoid doing their jobs.

By contriving conflict with talk of violence in the streets and the collapse of the state, Lebanon’s politicians have conveniently drawn people’s attention away from the fact that their water tanks are empty, their food is rotting in the fridge as electricity cuts for hours in the heat and their cars are stalled in choking traffic.

It’s no coincidence that when these issues began to boil this summer, the STL card was played; nor will anyone be surprised when it’s promptly shuffled back into the deck. Everyone already knows that Lebanon’s bilad al kubra, the ‘countries of influence’; do not find sectarian conflict in their interests at this juncture and that no one, even if they wanted to, can fight Hezbollah.

By that time, our politicians will likely have found another excuse to keep us scared into submission and their pockets lined with our money. At some point the joke will get old. But until then, it looks as though we will all have to be content with being laughed at.

SAMI?HALABI is

deputy editor of Executive Magazine

November 3, 2010 0 comments