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Finance

After the hubris

by Annelle Sheline January 3, 2010
written by Annelle Sheline

 

At the Union of Arab Stock Exchanges (UASE) conference in Cairo last month, Executive spoke with leading figures from different bourses around the Arab world about the impact of the Dubai World debt crisis, as well as other pertinent issues and trends in regional financial markets. Here is a selection of their answers: 

E  Was Dubai World’s near default an isolated incident or a symptom of Dubai’s financial situation as a whole?

Ahmed Aweidah, chief executive officer of the Palestine Securities Exchange: The writing was on the wall for Dubai. Everyone knew that Dubai was built on the availability of cheap credit, so during the credit crunch it was obvious Dubai would have problems; but it won’t go bankrupt. Dubai is going through a needed correction. It still has the fundamentals — qualified people, excellent infrastructure, ports and trade — that will allow it to bounce back on a more modest scale, but no more of this ‘tallest skyscraper in the world’ business.

Huseyin Erkan, chairman of the Istanbul Stock Exchange and president of the Federation of Euro-Asian Stock Exchanges: [Dubai World] was not an isolated case. Dubai invested heavily in real estate and was heavily leveraged. Now Dubai World will undergo restructuring as the authorities examine its assets.

Andre Went, CEO of the Qatar Stock Exchange: We’d better hope it was an isolated incident.

Abdullah Almadhi, CEO of Rana Investment Co.: Dubai World’s near default was a result of dryness in the market. The ripple effect of Dubai on shallower markets is greater than it would have been on more liquid markets. With proper amounts of credit to pay back loans, this will be an isolated incident.

Rashed Al-Baloushi, deputy chief executive (DCE) of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange: The figures were surprising for the United Arab Emirates. Our growth, gross domestic product, clear strategy and clear vision are moving us toward constant improvement. I think Dubai World was isolated and I am a strong believer in the strength of the Middle East.

E  What will be the impact of Dubai World’s near default on the region in 2010?

Thomas Krantz, secretary general of the World Federation of Exchanges: I have no idea. Our only role as markets is to stay open, to assuage concerns. The last thing you ought to do is lock the door.

Erkan: Regardless, there is liquidity in the Middle East. Money stayed home and it has helped offset the effects of the crisis. [Mideast] markets were not as poorly affected; most of the effect was psychological.

Went:The impact on Qatar will be limited. The initial reaction was an overreaction; the market fell 8.3 percent, but recovered quickly and is again over 7,000 points. It is difficult to predict the regional impact of the Dubai crisis; it depends whether foreign investors view the Gulf Cooperation Council as an integrated region or as made up of individual countries.

Massimo Capuano, DCE of the London Stock Exchange Group and CEO of the Borsa Italiana: Devolution is important for general credibility. It is too early to tell if Dubai’s credibility as a whole is damaged, as we’re still waiting for the solution. Dubai remains the most important economy in the Gulf, so the other GCC countries will need to decide what they need to do.

Aweidah: Palestine benefitted from its isolation in both the financial crisis and the post Dubai World downturn. Our stability, low leverage [and] current [foreign direct investment] levels make us attractive to investors. In 2008, we only lost 16 percent. We were the best performers in 2008 and have recovered the most since. We’re up 13 percent now. Everyone said, ‘Oh god, this is a crisis.’ Palestine is in a permanent crisis; it’s nothing new for us.

E  Why is the UASE meeting now, a quarter century after it was first established?

Capuano: The UASE is seeking to establish a common ground among its members, so that it can achieve a harmonized evolution of its markets; this has happened in many regions. As in Europe, the markets were once fragmented; then with the implementation of the euro and the European Central Bank it began homogenizing. The Middle East benefits from having a common language in which to conduct business.

Almadhi: We need to make sure that regulators and market participants are in the same place. It is important to sit down face-to-face, to hear the different issues we face and the similarities of our situations, which can lead to unified policies in terms of regulation. If we met on a regular basis I think we’d see more positive results.

Ahmed Saleh al-Marhoun, director general of the Muscat Securities Market: It is not easy to get everyone to agree. But in a crisis, you have to talk together in order to solve it. The [UASE] has been in existence for over 20 years and recently appointed a full-time secretary general with the clear objective of implementing an agenda.

E  Is it time for a pan-Arab stock index?

Went:Making an index is easy. One already exists, in fact, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Index; pan-MENA, pan-GCC, take your pick. It’s just a matter of calculating. The next challenge is to develop a trade instrument, like futures or options. Exchange Traded Funds are the new tools used for investment purposes. I’m not sure if a pan-Arab index makes sense. Maybe a pan-GCC index would, because the GCC countries are comparable while the whole region remains so diverse.

Capuano: An index could be useful, as it would attract interest from institutional investors that the region currently lacks. When launching an index, you need liquidity and  a strong commitment from liquidity providers. It is worth trying.

Almadhi: No. We need a unified approach to indexing, however. We need to be careful that our markets are not vastly different.

 Krantz: It is too soon perhaps. When a market is getting started it tends to be nationally based, and then afterwards becomes inter-country. These markets need to establish liquidity — multiple pools of liquidity that are nationally based.

Erkan: An index is a good mechanism for institutions to follow markets, so a regional index would be a good idea.

E  Why are markets in the Middle East subject to such dramatic volatility?

Went:The economic cycle goes faster in the Middle East than elsewhere. It’s a consequence of a non-diversified investment base.

Capuano: [Because of] the small size of the exchanges. I believe in finding the right combination of pools of liquidity together with institutional investors; finance could contribute a lot to developing these economies. There is a lot of potential here.

Almadhi: Two things. The shallowness of the markets, the types of products traded… Second, industrial investors with large holdings in specific companies that don’t act on fundamentals, but hold their own positions and have their own approach to the market.

E  What characterizes the Arab investor?

Went:The Middle East has more retail investors than institutional investors. Once the economies move from frontier markets to developing markets, [according to the classification by MSCI] we’ll start seeing more institutional and long-term investors.

Capuano: It is important to address the issue of long-term versus short-term investors. However, encouraging a long-term investment mindset can be difficult. This is a role that technology could play, especially in reassuring investors through regulatory software. Also, a common set of rules could harmonize and stabilize Middle Eastern markets.

Almadhi: Most investors are retailers; they are sensitive to events. They’re short-term speculators. Speculation is healthy but not at such high levels. Add institutional investors, and you get long-term funds that don’t dry up in reaction to bad news. Getting long-term investors just takes putting together a road show and marketing it around the United States, Europe [and] the Middle East.

Al-Marhoun: We need to change the mindset of the Arab investor. The region has a lot of liquidity available for long-term investment. If we can convince funds to be invested in the region, investors would find that returns on investments are higher in the Middle East than in Asia.

E  When can Arab markets expect to wean themselves off the price of oil?

Almadhi: The non-oil GDP is growing sharply. We’re diversifying from oil through partnerships with third parties. Abu Dhabi is an example of this, though I can’t speak on their behalf.

Al-Marhoun: There is a clear need for diversification. But the end result won’t come before a year or two. Most Arab countries have begun to diversify. In Oman and in the UAE there is an emphasis on real estate.

January 3, 2010 0 comments
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Finance

New year, new IPOs

by Executive Staff January 3, 2010
written by Executive Staff

In 2009, markets were battered by a seemingly never-ending series of financial crises — burst bubbles, financial meltdowns, soaring oil prices, credit crunches and falling home equity. These crises have weighted down the initial public offering market since 2008, and yet, the regional IPO pipeline is full — 150 companies have already announced IPO plans for 2010 and beyond.

Analysts say that with pent-up demand for equity, a large pipeline of deals and realistic sellers, there is every reason to believe that 2010 will be the beginning of an active and profitable period for IPOs.

According to available data, a number of regional companies plan to list this year, reopening a market that has been virtually shut even as investors lapped up billions of dollars worth of newly issued bonds across the Middle East and North Africa region.

 

While regional and global investors nurse their wounds over Dubai World’s debt problems, there are scores of opportunities if one looks beyond the immediate crisis. With many of Dubai’s state-owned entities restructuring and struggling to keep their finances in order, the government may look to offload some of these assets, say analysts.

“A number of government-linked companies, such as Dubai World and Nakheel, have generated spectacular growth for the emirate’s real estate, shipping, transport and financial sectors over the past two decades,” notes a Societe Generale report. “Now part of that constellation of companies could be broken up as Dubai struggles under its heavy debt load. In some cases, firms could be dismembered or partially privatized.”

Many Dubai Holding and Dubai World entities can be knocked into shape for a public offering — Dubai International Capital, Jumeirah Group, TECOM Investments, and Dubai Group from Dubai Holding are assets that many investors would love to have in their portfolio… if they believe in the long-term Dubai story, say analysts.

Similarly, partial privatization or offering Dubai World’s Jebel Ali Free Zone and Istithmar World to the public may help the Dubai government raise finances, trim costs and focus on governance and infrastructure.

Meanwhile, new IPO announcements that came out at the end of December include big names such as Bahrain’s Gulf International Bank, with plans to float some of its shares in 2011, and Afghan carrier, Safi Airways, which is planning to launch an IPO within the next three years and list the company on one of the UAE’s stock exchanges. Abu Dhabi-based Tasheed Holding, a food and beverages conglomerate, said that it plans to launch an IPO in 2012 without providing additional details.

In Saudi Arabia, the hottest IPO market in the region, the Capital Markets Authority, or CMA, said it approved initial public offerings for three Saudi firms early next year. The Saudi homegrown fast food chain Herfy Food Services will offer 8.1 million shares January 11 through 17.

Al Sorayai Trading and Industrial Group plans to sell 9 million shares between February 1 and 7, while travel agency Al Tayyar Travel Group will offer 24 million shares on February 22 through 28.

In North Africa, Egypt’s private equity fund, Citadel Capital, which manages a portfolio of $8.3 billion worth of investments across 12 countries, said it would offer 12.5 percent of its shares to raise fresh capital. The company, which will be listed on the Cairo Stock Exchange, has not yet provided a date for the IPO.

Libya, not well known for IPO announcements, is putting the final touches on plans to privatize two state-owned firms through an IPO scheduled for the first half of 2010 said Soliman Shehoumi, chairman of the Libyan Stock Exchange.

Shehoumi said that an Iron and Steel Company and National Commercial Bank are schedule to go public “in the near future,” but he did not specify how much of the companies will be offered to the public and how much the government is seeking to raise.

The National Commercial Bank was scheduled to launch an IPO for a 15 percent stake of the company’s share in 2008, however, the plan did not move forward with officials citing technical delays. Central Bank Governor Farhat Omar Bin Guidara said earlier this year that the government would sell a 15 percent stake in the bank, worth $40.5 million, in 2009.

Although no one can predict the future, analysts say conditions in the global IPO market in 2010 are set to noticeably improve, particularly in comparison with 2009. However, the real rebound is not expected until mid-2010.

The IPOs of 2009

Economic fluctuations in Palestine

Palestinian Securities Exchange (PSE) has approved IPOs and the listing of four Palestinian companies for early 2010, with an estimated total value of over $200 million, said PSE Chief Executive Officer Ahmad Aweidah in December.

Wataniya Mobile, with $180 million of capital, will offer 53 million shares in February 2010, while the Arab Palestinian Investment Company (APIC) is planning a capital increase by $12 million to $70 million through an IPO.

Amaar Real Estate Group, the Palestine Investment Fund’s real estate development arm, with $220 million of capital, is the third company to launch an IPO on PSE, Aweidah said.

Club Deportivo Palestino, the Palestinian community’s first division soccer team in Chile, plans to launch its IPO by issuing 2 million shares at a price of $1 per share, raising its capital by $2 million to $20 million.   

Palestino Club, the only western company to be listed on the PSE, is also planning to be listed on Santiago Stock Exchange in Chile. 

Aweidah also revealed that there are ongoing discussions with 15 family-owned companies to encourage and prepare them to list on the PSE.

“Despite being the newest stock market, the PSE is the most advanced one in the Arab countries on the technical level,” said Ahmad Aweidah.

January 3, 2010 0 comments
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Comment

Iraq’s amorphous politics

by Ranj Alaaldin January 2, 2010
written by Ranj Alaaldin

Iraq is set to hold parliamentary elections this March, after politicians in Baghdad overcame the squabbling and heated debates that had long delayed the controversial new election law. Iraqis will find themselves participating in a democratic process which, because of its incorporation of the open-list system (whereby people vote for individuals as opposed to parties), outmatches the elections of 2005, which adopted the closed-list system, and also outmatches the democratic standards of their regional neighbors.

The electoral process in Iraq will not be a smooth one. Violence, as ever, will decide the extent to which Iraqis will turn out to cast their votes. Recent security failures indicate that terrorists, suspected to be comprised of extremist Sunnis and jihadists, still remain at large. Their tactics have morphed to meet the challenges posed by a far more confident and assertive Iraqi security force, which can claim some credit for the overall reduction in violence; terrorists now re-group, re-equip and then, in time, strike at high value targets, such as the various ministries which suffered suicide attacks in recent months. In comparison to previous years, they strike at chance, as opposed to at will.

The terrorists’ main aim is to rekindle the ethno-sectarian violence of 2005 and 2006 that tainted Iraq in the aftermath of the United States-led invasion. But despite extremist strikes on Shiite civilian and government targets, there has yet to be reprisal attacks against Sunnis by the Shiite community, its clerical and political leaders.

Although large scale ethnic and sectarian violence is, save for certain parts of northern Iraq, a thing of the past, Iraqi politics as a whole has yet to garner the same fortunes. Politics in Iraq continue to be determined by ethnic and sectarian affiliations, and the Iraqi elections in March will exhibit this paralyzing feature of a country that continues to be a victim of its fascinatingly diverse, culturally and historically rich population.

But there is hope. Political scientists often highlight that division within majority identity groups is essential for stability in highly diverse societies. The Shiites, the majority group in Iraq, ran as a single bloc in the 2005 elections under the United Iraqi Alliance. This time, the alliance, running under the new banner of the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), does not include the current Iraqi premier Nouri al-Maliki and his Islamic Dawa Party.

The Islamic Dawa Party instead sought to form a secular and cross-sectarian alliance that builds on the group’s electoral success in the provincial elections last January. At the time, the development suggested a new chapter in Iraqi politics — one free from the shackles of ethno-sectarian loyalties. Yet, this never came to be. Maliki failed to bring any prominent Sunnis or Kurds onboard, leaving the premier vulnerable, but nevertheless comforted by the widely held belief that the INA still comprised mainly sectarian parties who performed poorly in last January’s provincial polls. Recent terror attacks will hurt Maliki, however, given that his key campaign platform was security.

Things also look more promising for the Sunnis. The Unity of Iraq Alliance (UIA) includes the major Sunni figure Ahmed Abu Risha, leader of the Anbar Awakening forces, who commands significant respect among the Sunni population. Elsewhere, the Iraqi National Movement (INM) is led by former premier Ayad Allawi (also a Shiite) and prominent Sunni figure Salih al-Mutlaq.

The major electoral battle will be in the Shiite south. In the January 2009 provincial polls, Maliki’s coalition achieved 28.6 percent of parliamentary seats, while the INA, made up of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the Sadrists, former premier Ibrahim Jafari and the Fadhila party, achieved 28.2 percent. The contest this March will therefore be a hot one, with neither of the coalitions likely to win a majority. This will embolden the Kurdish parties, but also the UIA and INM, who will be lobbied to become coalition partners.

Further splits are likely after the elections. The INA, though currently united, is essentially an alliance of convenience — bedfellows who have conflicting ideological and political visions but who recognize they fare better united than divided against Maliki’s electoral credentials. The INA’s ISCI and Sadrists have a history of violent rivalry, and the INA is made up of numerous strong personalities who have ambitions to become premier (a likely sticking point in the aftermath of the elections).

The divisions are positive only in that they make parties more susceptible to compromise on some of the key outstanding disputes: the division of power and control over the country’s vast energy resources.

The ongoing territorial and constitutional disputes will certainly continue well beyond the elections. But this is not to suggest that Iraqi democracy will be reduced as a result. To the contrary, the new open-list system means that Iraqi politicians will be more accountable; it also reduces the significance of affiliations, sectarian or otherwise, since merit rather than background becomes the route to power.

 Cracks are starting to appear in the traditional political landscape of Iraq for the better of Iraqis as a whole, though the journey is still a painfully enduring one.

RANJ ALAALDIN is a scholar on Iraq and is published regularly in The Guardian

January 2, 2010 0 comments
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Real Estate

Standing your ground

by Nada Nohra January 1, 2010
written by Nada Nohra

Dealing with the slowdown facing the United Arab Emirate real estate market was not easy for property developers in 2009. With project financing and mortgages less available as well as market sentiment at basement levels, both investors and end-users were reluctant to invest in a sector so heavily affected by the financial crisis.

“People were trying to keep their liquidity to themselves…so there was not that much interest in investing in real estate,” said Faisal Hasan, head of research at the Global Investment House, an investment company which manages real estate funds. With the preliminary fourth quarter and yearly numbers coming out, some developers managed to end the year in a relatively good financial position, while others suffered significant losses in profits and revenues.

“It was just a question of the degree of how negative those numbers were going to be,” said Zahed Chowdhury, institutional equity sales manager at Al Mal Capital, an investment bank with a large real estate portfolio.

Fourth Quarter Results

Emaar property was the best performing UAE developer in the fourth quarter, beating market expectations by recording a hefty rise in both profits and revenues. Aldar suffered substantial losses, while Sorouh and Union Properties, which both saw declines in net profits and revenues in the fourth quarter. Deyaar has not issued its last quarter numbers yet but said it had a 95 percent decrease in profit in 2009.  

UAE fourth quarter results (in $millions)

UAE full year results (in $millions)

Chowdhury said that comparing fourth quarter results, or even yearly results of real estate companies, is rather inaccurate and is not a valid indicator of the health of these businesses since their sales do not happen continuously, but depend on when projects finish and when delivery takes place.

“While you are building, there is no revenue, but when you build it and sell it there is ‘100 percent revenue’ and the day after you sold it there is ‘zero percent revenue,’” he said. Therefore, he noted, what should be looked at is whether the company has delivered what it announced on schedule. Moreover, analysts Executive spoke to said that revenues and profits, although the most popular numbers, are not enough to indicate whether the company is solid financially. It is also important to look at the balance sheet and the net debt-to-equity ratios of these companies. For example, both Aldar’s and Union Properties’ net debt-to-equity ratios are 115 percent, Emaar’s is more than 20 percent and Deyaar’s and Sorouh’s are negative (because of negative equity resulting from asset values falling below outstanding loan values), according to a fourth quarter report the HC Services and Investment’s brokerage arm.

“In Aldar’s case, [the debt] it is going to be a stress for the business while in Emaar’s it will not,” said Chowdhury. It will also affect the company’s ability to acquire financing.

“For example if Emaar wanted to raise money it would be able to because it doesn’t have that much debt on its balance sheet, and also it has rental properties and that can be used as underline collateral. But, in general, lenders are still very risk averse,” said Sana Kapadia, vice president of equity research at EFG Hermes.

Low financing slows the market

Since the financial crisis began and banks started to tighten loan requirements, both project and mortgage lending have been hard to obtain, which limited both demand for, and the supply of, new projects.  Charles Neil, chief executive officer of real estate firm Landmark Advisory, said that in the fourth quarter only about 14 percent of transactions executed by the company were financed by banks, while the rest was personal financing. 

“The commercial banks don’t seem to have much risk appetite for new lending in the property sector so they have been lending at very low loan-to-value ratios,” he said. The Dubai World debt crisis, which erupted in the last quarter of last year, also put more pressure on financing and affected companies’ fourth quarter results. “You can’t really exclude the Dubai World factor from fourth quarter of 2009,” said Saud Masud, head of research and senior analyst at the real estate department of UBS. “It put more pressure on financing, which also put more pressure on project activity, so it forced companies to either delay projects or to see more challenging adoptions in terms of demand.”

Emaar outperforms

In its preliminary results, Emaar announced a 94 percent increase in fourth quarter revenues and a net profit of $196 million compared to a loss of $662 million in 2008. Emaar’s net profit beat Credit Suisse estimates by 39 percent, but was in line with the Bloomberg consensus numbers. The increase in revenues and profits was driven by the delivery of 3,100 units in 2009, and the increase in income coming from malls and leisure businesses it owns.

“I think what is happening is that Emaar has done well because it didn’t need support like Aldar and Sorouh did, it had the financing already,” said Masud. He also added that Emaar was able to differentiate itself from the rest of the pack because other companies do not have a portfolio as mature as Emaar’s, in terms of reoccurring income and international projects. “To what extent it can continue to do that will be a question mark,” he added. 

As for the first quarter numbers, Chowdhury from Almal Capital said that Emaar’s financials should be strong with the delivery of Burj Khalifa, but will not maintain a robust growth in the second or third quarter since there will not be as many deliveries to be made.

“Emaar looks better for the simple reason that it sold most of the things that it was going to sell,” he said. “Aldar is still building most of the things that it is going to sell and while it is building them, [their prices] are falling.”

Aldar underperforms

Aldar also had some surprising results. Shafqat Malik, chief financial officer told Bloomberg in mid-February that the company had suffered, for the first time, a net loss of $153 million in the fourth quarter of last year, compared to a profit of $23 million in the same period of 2008. In a Bloomberg survey, analysts expected the company to record a profit of $111 million and a Credit Suisse estimate stood at $23 million. Aldar’s annual profit fell 71 percent year-on-year to $272 million, and revenues fell 60 percent to $539 million. Malik also told Gulf News that the decline was due to the absence of any land sales throughout the year, adding that there “were project write-offs of around $141 million in the fourth quarter alone, with the pre-opening costs of $46 million in our different Yas Island assets.”

The drop came as somewhat of a shock due to the relatively strong Abu Dhabi market in which it is based.

“Aldar couldn’t exceed expectations because people expected it could do some land sales, because the Abu Dhabi market was comparatively better than Dubai’s,” said Venkateshwaran Ramadoss, senior research analyst at real estate department of the Kuwaiti Financial Center  (Markaz).

Moreover, Chowdhury explained that Aldar is earlier in its lifecycle than Emaar and thus has a less developed business model.

“Aldar it is still at least another year or two away [from maturity],” he said. “So the crisis has caught Aldar too early in its life cycle, leaving its revenue and its income stream more volatile to the crash, compared to Emaar.” 

After announcing its financial results, Aldar also announced the sales of the Yas racetrack, the yacht club, as well as the infrastructure on Yas Island to the Abu Dhabi government for $2.5 billion. The sale was at book value and no profit was recorded. Credit Suisse reported that this sale would reduce the net debt-to-equity ratio from 115 percent to 71 percent.

“The sale of the track and certain associated amenities in itself is a positive step,” said EFG Hermes in a note. “As it would mean that some concerns over Aldar’s capital-intensive ventures are now eased.” In the first week of March, Moody’s downgraded Aldar’s rating to Ba1 from Baa2, the first step below investment grade with a negative outlook, along with six other government related UAE companies. Following the announcement, Abu Dhabi government reaffirmed in a press release its support for its state-owned entities and said “we obviously disagree with the reasoning involved in a number of Moody’s decisions.” Aldar was not available to comment.

Sorouh too young to fall

Sorouh Real Estate fared better than Aldar in the last quarter, and revenues were $119 million, 17 percent lower than the same period of 2008. The revenue was mainly driven by the sale of 643,000 square meters of land for developing the first phase of the Al Ghadeer project, built by Al Sdeirah Real Estate Investment, which is 30 percent owned by Sorouh. The company recognized $66 million in provisions in the last quarter as well as a $13 million loss from its 20 percent share in three associates: Aseel Finance, Green Emirates Properties, and Al Maabar International Investment LLC. The company’s net profit amounted to $7 million; down from $13 million in the same period of 2008.

“In 2009, we saw very few sales of property units, as we had not launched any new projects and had already pre-sold a number of units heading into construction phase,” said the company in an emailed statement.

Over the course of the year, the company managed to cut expenses by 41 percent to $63 million, recording $844 million in revenues and $135 million in net profit — 16 percent and 73 percent lower, respectively, than in 2008. Al Mal Capital’s Chowdhury said that Sorouh was further behind in its life cycle than Aldar, which has placed it in a better financial position and protected it from a substantial debt burden on its balance sheet.

Construction continues outside Dubai
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January 1, 2010 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Making hay while the sun still shines

by Ahmed Moor January 1, 2010
written by Ahmed Moor

 

Oil and gas markets face a number of challenges to their continued development, with producers confronting three main issues: peak oil, alternative energy and/or nuclear power and the risk of geopolitical instability.

The United Arab Emirates is as affected by these issues as any other energy-exporting nation. Dubai is already experiencing the effects of peak oil, as its reserves dwindle to nearly insignificant levels. The country is pursuing nuclear and renewable energy to offset its consumption of fossil fuels. The UAE also relies heavily on the Strait of Hormuz for most of its export capabilities — leaving it vulnerable to the potential effects of war with Iran.

Peak Oil

Peak oil represents one key theoretical challenge to producers in the oil industry. The idea is that because global stores of oil are finite, the world will one day reach a point where it is extracting the maximum amount possible, and will thereafter confront a period of decline in oil output. While some analysts expect peak oil to occur around 2030, others expect it to occur sooner than that.  Analyst and author David Strahan expects the net global production to reach peak oil by 2020 at the latest. According to him, oil production is shrinking in 60 of the world’s 98 oil-producing countries. Indeed, he predicted in 2008 in a speech at the World Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi that the total oil output for non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) states will reach its apex in 2010.

The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) appears to agree on this point. According to a report it published, “the EIA projects the total non-OPEC supply of crude oil will grow by just over 1 million barrels per day [bpd] to an average 51.5 million bpd in 2010 — the largest year-over-year increase since 2002. The increase in total non-OPEC supply for the year is the result of higher production in the United States, Brazil, China, and Russia.” 

But after this bumper year, the EIA expects non-OPEC supply set to drop by 280,000 bpd in 2011  — the third time in the last 15 years that non-OPEC supplies have fallen year-over-year. Previous declines in 2005 and 2008 were primarily the result of supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico related to hurricanes.

There are other indicators that peak oil may be a serious concern in the coming decade. For instance, the 30 biggest oil companies upped their exploration budgets by 45 percent to more than $400 billion in 2006 alone. Yet, oil and gas reserves only grew by 2 percent despite the massive investment.

According to Kate Dourian, Middle East editor at Platts, yields from existing fields are dropping about 5 percent to 7 percent annually. At the same time, analysts predict that 30 to 40 million barrels of new daily capacity will be needed to meet global demand between now and 2030. That’s due to the fact that the capacity expansions currently underway in the Gulf don’t cover the difference. “There will be a supply shortage if people don’t invest now because of the long lead time” in exploration and delivery to market, she said. But because of the increased viability of alternative fuels, producers are reluctant to invest. “It’s difficult to ask producers to pour billions into the ground to keep it there,” she explained.

Alternative energy and nuclear power

A wide range of alternative energies are being brought to the market and there is some expectation that they will displace oil and gas market share globally, which today is generally estimated to be between 80 and 90 percent. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2005 nuclear generation provided 6.3 percent of the world’s total primary energy supply and its share of the market is likely to have climbed. Alternative fuels encompass a range of sources such as biodiesel, chemically-stored electricity, hydrogen, vegetable oil and biomass sources.

There are two main reasons for why governments and people around the world seek to become less dependent on fossil fuels. First, the consumption of oil and gas creates greenhouse gasses, which are heavily implicated in global warming and the destruction of ecosystems worldwide. Environmental degradation is arguably the direst threat confronting the world today. In the words of United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon: “Business as usual cannot be tolerated, for it would condemn millions — no, billions — of children, women and men around the world to shrinking horizons and smaller futures.” 

Indeed, climate talks may be having a chilling effect on the amount of new investment oil and gas producers are making in increased production, even before any viable alternatives hit the market. Dourian explained that: “The producers are saying ‘Well hang on a second we don’t know how Kyoto is going to impact future demand; we don’t know how much is going to be displaced.’” The Kyoto protocol is an international agreement designed to combat climate change that expires in 2012. Efforts are underway to replace the agreement with similar or more robust international agreements.

Second, as economies in the developing world grow — most notably China and India — they will require ever larger amounts of energy. Energy from oil producing states is far from guaranteed in the long term, and renewable energy that can be produced within a country’s own borders is often preferable. Many governments regard energy security as a priority, and a heavy reliance on foreign governments exposes them to potentially destructive consequences.

The UAE is already making provisions for nuclear energy in response to increased domestic energy demand and to further capitalize on petroleum’s exportability. At present the country is in consultation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to create a nuclear program, and it accepted a $20 billion bid from a consortium of South Korean companies in December of 2009 to build four nuclear power plants for commercial use by 2020. This is in keeping with Dubai’s plans to produce 20 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.

The UAE is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It also signed and ratified an additional safeguards agreement with the IAEA in 2003. In 2008, the country appointed an ambassador to the IAEA.

Geopolitical disturbance

The Middle East and parts of Africa are some of the most politically volatile areas of the globe. They also contain the largest stores of fossil fuels, which means that global supply lines are threatened by every regional conflagration.

The Iran-Iraq war, the first Gulf war, the 1973 war, and ongoing strife in the Niger Delta all precipitated spikes in the price of oil and natural gas. Today, there is a real possibility that Western countries and/or Israel will attack Iran under the banner of quashing its nuclear capability. If that happens, the Iranians may retaliate by striking tankers and cutting supply routes through the all-important Strait of Hormuz, through which passes approximately 17 million barrels of crude oil per day. While many countries have energy reserves (America’s stockpile consists of about 700 million barrels of crude oil), they probably will not be enough to offset the adverse effects of a war with Iran. Such a conflict would thus likely lead to a ‘double-dip’ global recession. 

There are many challenges to the continued provision of steady oil and gas supplies to the world market. The industry is being forced to grapple with steadily shrinking supplies, adverse environmental effects which result from fossil fuel consumption and a high-risk supply area. While much can be done to mitigate these risks in the short and possibly medium term, these are likely long term, irreversible trends. In other words, the world will continue to move away from oil.

January 1, 2010 0 comments
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Capitalist Culture

Arab Perestroika

by Michael Young December 17, 2009
written by Michael Young

In early November, the Western media was awash with material celebrating the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Not surprisingly, these echoes had turned into a hollow clang by the time they reached the Arab world. So, are Arabs really incapable of grand transformative change, particularly democratic change, and if so, why?

The question is both fair and beside the point. Everyone will provide a different answer; trying to nail down such a momentous query is unlikely to lead far, raising only more questions. Aligned against those, present company included, who believe that the region is capable of deep democratic change, there are those who will present “culturalist” arguments to the effect that Arab states don’t have the historical baggage required to set up democratic orders.

As their societies have always been autocratic, the argument goes, Arabs are therefore predisposed to autocracy. Others will go further to assert that Islam doesn’t inherently allow for democracy, even though no convincing evidence has ever been presented to justify such a sweeping conclusion.

 These opinions are terribly constricting and self-reinforcing. If a society is perceived as being incapable of opening up, of pursuing liberal outcomes, then there is no motivation from their governments, let alone foreign governments, to ever take popular preferences seriously. Yet as East Germany in 1989 showed, as did Lebanon in 2005 and Iran this year, even when presented with small openings, societies under tight control — whether domestic or foreign — will take steps toward emancipation, which, even momentarily, can fundamentally improve their situation.

 Unlike the former communist states of Eastern Europe, the Arab world is more complex when it comes to economics. By and large the region’s economies are under the control of the state, or its representatives. Even private sectors, where they exist and even thrive, can in many ways be undermined by rulers and the absence of independent judiciaries.

Yet economics and finance have also been rare areas in the region where regimes have left society some room to maneuver; in most places the notion of a private sector is encouraged, so long as leaders and their acolytes are reserved a cut of state profits and political realities remain unaffected.

But these hybrid economic systems have failed to create more liberal societies. An assumption of numerous Western projects directed at the Arab world has been that the loosening of economic controls might ultimately be mirrored by a loosening of political controls.

This was, for example, a pillar of the Barcelona process set up in the mid-1990s by the European Union. In reality, the link between economic and political openings has been tenuous at best, which is why the political expectations surrounding Barcelona have virtually dissolved, with the process focusing almost exclusively on economic reform.

In that case, what would it take for the Arab world to have its own Berlin Wall moment? Is such a thing even conceivable, particularly given that the region is not held together by a unified intimidating power similar to the Soviet Union’s, where a loosening of the straps at the center could ultimately bring the entire edifice down?

That the George W. Bush administration imagined Iraq’s liberation might be such an event raises hackles today, even if the impact of what happened there has yet to be fully grasped. Grand projects tend to die in the Middle East. Instead, the region seems only to breed stalemate and a sense that nothing will ever change.

But that may not be true. One could easily imagine, for example, that a sudden breakdown of Iran’s autocratic order, which is now devoid of any revolutionary ideological fervor, would send shockwaves through neighboring Arab states. Had post-Saddam Iraq succeeded more quickly (for it will likely emerge from its nightmare stronger), its democratic reverberations could have been more effective than they are; even now, the country’s emerging pluralism deeply worries its neighbors.

In a Middle East where the status quo has prevailed for so long, a sudden swell of change akin to the fall of the Berlin Wall may be more plausible than we think. Arab states will not become freer and more liberal through economic reform. And if change comes, states will not have the benefit of a democratic neighborhood, such as the European Union, to frame their future actions and integrate them into the safety of a liberal, capitalist and multilateral structure.

That’s why if, or when, the Arab wall falls, the consequences may be much direr than those found in Europe two decades ago. The wall may collapse on our heads.

Michael Young

December 17, 2009 0 comments
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Luxury Retail

Faces of fashion

by Executive Staff December 17, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Toni Traboulsi Executive manager, Middle East Luxury Group

E  Rumors of money laundering activities have sometimes beenassociated with some prominent Lebanese luxury groups in Lebanon. Some retail clients have also complained about unfair return policies and voiced doubts as to the original quality of goods sold by some of the luxury sector’s mammoths. How, as a member of the luxury retail industry, do you perceive these serious accusations and do you believe they reflect on the Lebanese luxury sector as a whole?

I am aware of these accusations but I believe that this type of talk is common in Lebanon when an individual or a company becomes very successful. However I really cannot say for sure if there is any truth to such allegations, but given that our industry is a very sensitive one and our market an extremely sensitive one, such accusations are certainly detrimental to the image of the Lebanese luxury retail as a whole.

Regarding accusations of counterfeiting, I do not believe it is practiced by large groups as you mentioned, but certainly by some smaller retail stores, some of which openly display copies of famous brands and are located in the vicinity of the Lebanese parliament. There should definitely be more of a governmental effort to rein in such unlawful practices that harm the Lebanese luxury retail industry. As for complaints about the return policies and quality of service provided by some boutiques, I believe that brand policies differ from one market to another and especially in Lebanon, due to the mentality of some clients who tend to abuse the system. We at MELG take, however, very seriously any complaint regarding product defect and immediately replace any faulty item, if sold at one of our boutiques. We also involve the manufacturer every step of the way.

Christiane Boustany Business manager of the fashion division, Malia Group

“Lebanese designers have exported luxury to the world”

E  Do you believe that the financial crisis put an end to the luxury retail party in Lebanon? Or on the contrary, do you feel that Lebanon will be spared by the overall financial contraction?

I highly doubt the party is over for Lebanese retailers. And yes I do believe Lebanon still has major potential as a regional luxury shopping destination. One has to keep in mind that the country’s precarious political situation and permanent state of instability has reflected negatively on our growth and  left us lagging behind other luxury retail destinations for quite some time.

We’ve come a long way but we still have a lot to achieve. However, Lebanon’s position is unique in the Middle East; not only has it become an importer of luxury brands, it has been able, through a pool of talented Lebanese designers such as Elie Saab or Zuhair Murad, to export luxury to the world.

Grace Sehanoui Brand manager, E and E Group 

E  Do you believe that with the current economic crisis, there is more of a future for diffusion brands than for haute couture creations?

“Without haute couture there is no future for diffusion brands…the democratization of luxury will never be able to cross certain boundaries”

The world of luxury fashion will always be defined by haute couture. It is true that diffusion brands have today become part of a wider trend: the world’s luxury fashion houses are looking to grow through lower priced items dubbed as secondary brands. It is also interesting to note that some famous designers, such as Jimmy Choo, are entering the low cost retail market by creating special collections for other retailers, which are international companies like H&M. These diffusion lines, which have lower margins than luxury lines but higher volume, are growing in importance. But at the end of the day, many big fashion names rely on the visibility of their high-end brands and the glamour of their Paris, London or Milan défilés to bring in the numbers. While the strategy of some of the fashion powerhouses will be to expand in diffusion lines, because they can increase sales turnover, higher profit margins will remain in haute couture which, ultimately, help boost all other lines with the brand image they diffuse and the quality and creativity involved in their production process. Without haute couture there is no future for diffusion brands and I believe that the democratization of luxury will never be able to cross certain boundaries.

Izzat Traboulsi Managing director, Hugo Boss for the Middle East

“We need to preserve the exclusive character of downtown”

E  How, in your opinion, should Lebanese luxury retailers position themselves in order to differentiate Lebanon as a luxury retail destination from other international shopping capitals such as Dubai, Paris or London, and what can they do to capture a larger portion of the Arab clientele?

As luxury retailers we need to focus, develop and further promote our downtown area as a luxury shopping destination. Beirut’s downtown is comparable to New York’s Sachs Fifth Avenue area — which is delimited by the 40th and 50th street quadrant — or the select Paris Avenue Montaigne. We definitely need to preserve and promote the exclusive character of our downtown area by building a proper brand mix, while staying away from lower cost brands that might hurt the luxury image we would like to achieve. Ultimately, Lebanon is, today, providing shoppers with a beautiful open air space, a naturally handsome setting that features glamorous brand names. We have been able to create a high-end destination that other countries in the Gulf can’t really compete with. Even in countries like Syria, which actually have a downtown area, it is very difficult for them to offer a similar shopping experience due to the setup of their urban areas, lacking proper brand mix and where shoppers will encounter sandwich eateries sitting side by side to luxury stores. Besides a naturally beautiful setting, Lebanon also has the advantage of the savoir-faire and know-how of big retail groups that define the meaning of luxury in our country.

December 17, 2009 0 comments
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Luxury Retail

Ritz blitz

by Executive Staff December 17, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Is the party over for luxury retail? In Lebanon, in spite of noticeable changes in consumer behavior, the answer seems to be a definite “no,” according to the  Fashion powerhouses interviewed by Executive.

“Luxury is a word eponymous to life, happiness and the highest standards of quality. Its intrinsic, rare and exclusive qualities are a reflection  of an individual’s status,” says Roger Mrad, owner of the Wadih Mrad company, exclusive agents of Cartier, Dunhill and Chanel, among other designer watch brands.

The Lebanese, who many consider the regional fashionistas par excellence, value all things luxury.

“The Lebanese are strong believers in designer brands,” says Grace Sehnaoui, brand manager at E and E, who operate international fashion franchises such as Kamishibai, Tod’s, Hogan and Vilebrequin. With the country’s political situation gaining stability, many Lebanese are rekindling their love for big spending.

“During the 2005 and 2006 period, which was marred by brutal bombings and violent conflicts, retailers understandably experienced a real freeze in consumer spending,” explains Sehnaoui. “That freeze is starting to thaw.”

Momentum created by the country’s renewed peace was somewhat counterbalanced by the global financial crisis, but, as Wajdi Abdel Hadi, Vertu’s regional manager for the Middle East and South Africa says, “things are definitely picking up.”

Different styles

Luxury retailers have detected differences in Arab and Lebanese consumer behavior.

Mrad explains that, in his experience, Lebanese tend to be loyal to their national companies and shop at home instead of abroad ­— a trend also noted by Izzat Traboulsi, managing director of Hugo Boss for the Middle East. Expats returning home accounted for much of their 2008 sales figures.

Retailers have also noticed differing customer demographics, depending on the location of their stores.

“About 80 percent of our customer base at ABC are Lebanese, while this figure drops to 70 percent for our downtown boutiques,” says Christiane Boustany, the fashion manager at Malia Holding — a Lebanon-based organization owning equity in various luxury stores, such as Secret Pon-Pon, Mariella Burani, Sebastian Shoes, Paul and Shark, Miss Sixty and the Facco jewelry brand.

Mrad adds that their ABC Ashrafieh location “retains about 70 percent of expatriate purchases, while they only constitute 40 percent of total sales at the Dbayeh store.”

Toni Traboulsi, executive manager at the Middle East Luxury Group (MELG) — representatives of brands such as Gianfranco Ferre, Just Cavalli, Giuseppe Zanotti, Plus IT and the 109 multi-brand store — notes that 60 percent of the group’s client base are Lebanese nationals, 30 percent Arab tourists from the Gulf and the rest is a mixture of various nationalities.

Karen Nehme, brand manager at Ferragamo, points out that their  downtown Beirut Bank Street store witnessed a 40 percent increase in purchases from Arab clientele, thanks to improving political conditions.

Sehnaoui says that in the case of her stores, it was Lebanese customers who usually drove the company volume.

“Arab spending accounts for increases in sales volumes during certain seasons, but not for more than a 25 percent spike in total sales during a given month,” she says.

Sehnaoui adds that demography is also evolving in terms of client age and gender.

“We are counting more and more young people as our clients, especially those currently residing abroad and who are slowly developing a taste for designer brands. More women are working and  thus increasing their spending habits,” Sehnaoui explains.

Toni Traboulsi says he had noticed that shoppers were more aware of budget constraints and seem to have less purchasing power on average.

However, Nicolas Ferneini, manager at the Joseph Eid Group, believes that the Lebanese aren’t necessarily spending less, but sticking to more classical styles while trying to trend them up with accessories.

Seasonal spree

“Our main challenge was the general negative economic spending mood that prevailed at the beginning of the global crisis,” says Chucri Cavalcanti, managing director of the Elie Saab Group. “Customers are more selective and up to date on  international fashion trends,” In spite of a change in consumer behavior, the downtown luxury destination seems to be bustling with regular activity. Many retailers are also rejoicing over the coming holiday season, noting stronger sales volumes are usually witnessed at either the beginning of the new fashion season or around the annual vacation time.

“Lebanese tend to seek the cream of the crop of every collection, which implies that they tend to shop right at the beginning of each season,” says Malia Holding’s Boustany.

According to Sehnaoui, E and E stores perform best during the summer season, which is noticeably longer than others and attracts significant numbers of Lebanese expatriates and Arab tourists.

Trabousli broke sales down further, specifying that for MELG, July and August represent about 30 percent of the company’s total sales, adding that December accounts for the highest percentage of monthly sales volume, with 17 percent of the company’s yearly turnover. At Elie Saab, sales peak during the yearly holidays and the summer season, and represent some 65 percent of total sales.

Izzat Traboulsi says that Lebanon has managed to keep attracting Arab shoppers because of the faith Gulf tourists put in the Lebanese flair for fashion.

“[Gulf] residents…enjoy shopping in Lebanon because they trust the Lebanese buyers tastes and trendy styles,” he says.

MELG’s Traboulsi says that most people managing brands in the region are of Lebanese origin: additional proof of Lebanon’s unique position in the world of luxury fashion.

But Arab trust does not seem to prevail when it comes to Lebanese retail ethics.

“Gulf shoppers have become much more educated in terms of the value of designer products they buy and unfortunately there has been some abuse on the part of some Lebanese retailers, who have deceived their Arab clients,” says Sehnaoui.

According to Mrad, trust remains Lebanon’s strongest brand.

“Lebanon’s luxury retail is all about a personalized approach, generally associated with local families,” he says. “As an example, if a customer buys a watch from Wadih Mrad, he is putting his trust in a family that has been in the business for three generations. We have to keep this tradition of personal relations alive, as it remains one of the Lebanese’s core strengths. “This type of approach does not exist [elsewhere] in the region, where the shopping experience has become more anonymous.”

Costly business

For most retailers, one of the main preoccupations remains the high rents imposed by real estate owners and companies around the downtown area. According to Izzat Traboulsi, rent accounts for some 30 percent of a store’s expenses.

“The luxury retail business is a highly profitable business in times of stability, but it also comes with a high price tag, as retailers have to disburse about $2,000 for every square meter rented in the downtown area,” he says.

This fact was underlined by Sehnaoui who says: “Rental costs represent a significant expense for retailers and are often diverted from marketing budgets.”

Property owners renegotiate contracts every three years, putting further pressure on retailers faced with ever tighter margins. According to Guillaume Beaudisseau, of Ramco real estate company, rents in downtown Beirut average $1,500 per square meter per year. The average floor-space of a downtown store is around 50 square meters.

Karen Nehme, brand manager at Ferragamo, says parking restrictions and security measures imposed by Solidere, who own much of the re-built downtown area, do not facilitate the work of retailers: “We are thinking of relocating deeper into the downtown area as our [Bank Street] store’s access has become quite difficult for our clients,” she adds.

Another concern voiced by retailers was the 10 percent value-added tax system.

“In Lebanon, VAT is paid by retailers upfront on the amount of the goods they import,” says Sehnaoui. “If a company imports goods worth $100,000, it pays the full amount, regardless of whether the merchandise is sold or not, with the difference being reimbursed later by the state. In France, VAT is only paid after the merchandise is sold. This has massive financial implications for retailers at large.”

In spite of the difficulties faced by luxury retailers, major fashion houses seem to be expanding massively in the capital, heralding what could well be — should the country’s fragile hold on peace remain firm — a new dawn for luxury fashion in Lebanon.

“The outlook…looks good, as is evidenced by in the upswing of tourism figures in Lebanon,” says Vertu’s Hadi. “I can’t find any reason restraining luxury retailers in Lebanon growing from strength to strength.”

December 17, 2009 0 comments
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Luxury Retail

Boutique’s new boom

by Executive Staff December 17, 2009
written by Executive Staff

For international luxury retailers battered by the financial crisis in Europe and the United States, the Middle East has an enduring allure and has remained, in spite of weakening sales figures, an essential market. Unlike other countries in the region, Lebanon’s luxury retail sector has shown resilience and solid growth in 2009, with the sector also seeing dramatic structural changes.

In 2003, the Middle East retail industry was valued at some $200 billion; by the end of 2008 this value had swelled to more than $400 billion, according to a report by the Bharat Book Bureau, a market research firm. While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are seen as the most vital markets for retailers in the Middle East — a role they are expected to maintain in the coming years — Lebanon seems to have slowly emerged from its slumber, with many luxury retailers launching stores in Beirut.

“The luxury retail industry is a billion dollar sector in Lebanon,” says Wajdi Abdel Hadi, Vertu’s regional manager for the Middle East and South Africa. “Lebanese are known for having a penchant for luxury and branded items, which accounts for Lebanon being one of our most successful regions.”

“The future of Lebanon’s luxury retail is being drawn today, as can be seen in the flurry of new exclusive stores that are opening in the downtown area,” says Izzat Traboulsi, managing director of Hugo Boss for the Middle East.

The country’s retail industry is transforming rapidly, driven by changing market dynamics and increased political stability: a key element to Lebanon’s investment appeal.

The wealth of Lebanon’s massive expatriate population, who are avid luxury customers and often return home to shop, as well as the formation and aggressive expansion of large luxury retail groups — such as Aishti, Middle East Luxury Group (MELG), E and E, Malia and Rodeo Drive — have contributed to the growth momentum.

“We have been able to maintain our growth from 2008 to 2009, in spite of the economic crisis,” says Toni Traboulsi, executive manager of MELG, which boasts high-end brands such as Gianfranco Ferre, Just Cavalli, Giuseppe Zanotti, Plus IT and 109 multi-brand stores.

A year for growth

Roger Mrad, owner of the Wadih Mrad multi-brand watch stores — agents of Cartier, Panerai, Piaget, Chanel, Zenith, Frederique Constant, Bell & Ross and Dunhill — confirmed Traboulsi’s statement, adding that in spite of the fact that Lebanon’s luxury retail figures did not improve from 2008 to 2009, they fared much better than other countries in the region, which were plagued by sales losses — averaging between 40 percent and 60 percent in the luxury watches segment alone.

Chucri Cavalcanti, managing director of the Elie Saab Group, explained that at the beginning of the crisis sales in the ready-to-wear segment were affected for a minimal period of time, but the haute couture segment remained unscathed.

“Now that we are emerging out of this crisis, there is a definite up-turn in growth,” says Vertu’s Hadi. “Luxury brands are continuing to pour into the market, which is definitely a good sign.”

Karen Nehme, brand manager at Ferragamo, estimates that 2009 was extremely successful in term of turnover, and a year that brought “huge growth to the Ferragamo brand in Lebanon.”

Christiane Boustany, business manager of the fashion division at Malia Holding — a Lebanon-based organization that is part owners of companies such as Secret Pon-Pon, Mariella Burani, Sebastian shoes, Paul & Shark, Miss Sixty and the Facco jewelry brand — believes growth for the group’s luxury segment was in double-digit figures in 2009. Izzat Traboulsi puts this figure at 15 percent for the same period for the Hugo Boss Group.

“Sales literally took off in the last year, growing by as much as 30 percent,” says Grace Sehnaoui, brand manager at E and E, a company that owns franchises such as Tod’s, Hogan, Kamishibai, Vilebrequin and Pebbles.

Most luxury retailers interviewed by Executive showed optimism toward their future in Lebanon, so long as political stability was maintained.

“Sales by luxury retailers can achieve a 10 percent to 15 percent improvement in performance next year,” predicts Izzat Traboulsi — a figure that concurs with the regional estimation forecasted by the Bharat Book Bureau, which foresees growth of 14 percent in the Middle East between 2009 and 2013.

Boosted by solid growth figures in 2009, the Lebanese luxury retail sector regained its former dynamism, morphing dramatically to dovetail back into the Middle East’s retail culture, where smaller outlets have been progressively replaced by mega shopping malls.

The changing consumer demographics in Lebanon — with the emergence of a significant population of young professionals, largely employed in the oil-rich Gulf — accounted for an estimated $7 billion in remittances in 2009, helping to fuel the trend. This evolution translated to a shift from the traditional multi-brand stores to mono-brand luxury boutiques.

In Beirut’s downtown area, exclusive names such as Fendi, Dior, Feretti, Dolce and Gabana are popping up in the Carré d’or, or the “Golden Quarter,” stretching between Foch and Allenby streets.

Rumor has it that the Gharzouzi family is opening a Hermes store, one of the most exclusive luxury brands — it was the highest scoring in the Luxury Brand Status Index — while Louis Vuitton also seems to be joining the Beirut fray, choosing the Lebanese capital to host one of its new stores.

“Mono-brand stores are a matter of brand identity and image for luxury retailers, they do not compete with clients of multi-brand stores. On the contrary, they tend to push sales of products carried by multi-brand retailers,” says Mrad. “As an example, our turnover of Cartier watches increased by 27 percent when the Cartier boutique first opened.”

Boutique uber-alles

With the launching of mono-brand stores in Lebanon requiring larger investments, a semi-monopoly of segments of the luxury retail sector seems to be taking place.

“Small companies built on one or two brands can hardly survive in such a competitive environment and will eventually lose their representation,” says Boustany. As an example, Hugo Boss, which used to be distributed through one retailer, has started opening its own stores and diversified its points of sales.

“It is a matter of cost effectiveness,” says Toni Traboulsi from MELG. “Large groups have the infrastructure and the means to handle various brands. In such a framework, one buyer’s expenses can be spread over the budgets of several boutiques, thus minimizing costs significantly across the board. Additionally, management fees are also divided among the various stores and cost centers carried by one ‘mother’ holding company, making the process much more profitable.”

In spite of the growing enthusiasm of international fashion houses for mono-brand stores, Sehnaoui does not believe the trend is indicative of the imminent death of the multi-brand store in Lebanon.

“A few years ago we started witnessing a slow erosion of the multi-brand store concept. But recently it appears that the trend is reversing with a return to multi-brand boutiques,” she says. Sehnaoui underlined, however, that a growing problem for luxury multi-brand retailers around Lebanon resides in the fact that some fashion houses, which have been significantly affected by the global economic crisis, are distributing their products to more than one retailer, contributing to the cannibalization of brands. 

“It is difficult for international brands to understand that Lebanese retailers are, contrary to ones operating in other countries, limited by geographical constraints, due to the country’s small size,” says Sehnaoui. “As an example, a brand which is carried by a store in Verdun, ideally should not be carried by a competitor in Ashrafieh, because both areas are so close in distance.”

Another problem faced by retailers lies in the fact that most mono-brand stores opening in Lebanon are operated through franchise contracts, imposing strict requirements pertaining to size, location, number of boutiques, decoration, budget and other targets.

“The promotional strategy imposed by the franchisor is sometimes not suitable to the particularities of the local market,” says Nehme.

Too much of a good thing?

“There is a general feeling in the retail business that some investors are opening stores randomly,” notes Izzat Traboulsi. “However, due to the country’s size and unstable environment, a multi-store approach for luxury brands, one that requires very high turnover that can only be generated by increasing tourist clientele, is still not sustainable. Such an approach will ultimately lead to market saturation in Lebanon.”

Traboulsi underscored that luxury brands require volume in order to survive, implying a heavy reliance on tourism: a sector directly linked to political stability.

Mrad shares his concern, warning, “Luxury brands stores require a constant infusion of new blood and are not profitable if they solely rely on the local population.”

However, this has not stopped retailers from expanding, with giant fashion groups such as Chalhoub and Boutique One opening stores in Beirut, while home-grown talent such as Elie Saab opening in fashion capitals like Paris and London.

“Our international expansion and the establishment of stores in major cities around the world has helped greatly in increasing the awareness of the Elie Saab brand,” says the Saab group’s Managing Director Cavalcanti, “And with it, certainly the appreciation for Lebanon’s luxury culture.”

December 17, 2009 0 comments
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Automotive

Fashion driven

by Executive Staff December 17, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Nagy Heneine General manager, Bassoul-Heneine BMW, Mini, Renault, Alfa Romeo and Dacia

 “Sedans used to be the Lebanese car of choice at over 80 percent of sales,” said Nagy Heneine, general manager of Bassoul-Heneine. “But in 1999 we launched the BMW X5, the first sports activity vehicle [SAV], and since then 4×4 sales haven’t stopped growing. Over 50 percent of sales are now in the SAV segment. In Lebanon, the two most popular styles are the X5 and the X6.”

“In Lebanon we still don’t have a fuel efficiency concern, but in the popular car segment efficiency is more important,” he added. “This is where the government should be more strict, as the environment should be a major concern. Many cars are very pollutive, but the government does nothing. They should enforce rules, have laws on imports and offer incentives. In the mindset of the people the environment is increasingly important. BMW is a pioneer in this, and it has been awarded best car company for lowering emissions. The future of cars in five to six years will be electric vehicles.”

Next year BMW, along with other brands will introduce hybrids, which Heneine pointed out are even faster than normal cars, a fact that could prove a boon for sales despite the higher price tag.

“In some countries there are incentives to drive hybrids, and its makes sense to buy them. There is an [awareness of the benefits of hybrids] in Europe but not in this region, although it will come one day.”

Fayez Rasamny Vice chairman, Rasamny Younis Motor Company Nissan, GMC, Infiniti and Kawasaki

In October, the Lebanese authorities banned motorcycles and mopeds after 6 p.m. following clashes between young men riding two-wheelers, in addition to cracking down on riders without helmets and unregistered mopeds.

“It is not a permanent law and the authorities had to do it,” said Fayez Rasamny, vice chairman of Rymco, dealer for Kawaski motorbikes. “There are a lot of scooters (“mobilets”) running around town, and I would ban used scooters and only sell new ones, not for $100 but $1,000. These mobilets are causing a number of problems and many are un-registered. But it has not affected our sales [of new motorcycles].”

Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs) are “image boosters. They are a practical decision for Lebanese roads, and there is a common perception that you can’t own a home without an SUV.”

Rasamny said Lebanese consumers are “not concerned” about fuel consumption. “You know Lebanon, they prefer to have a SUV and not think about fuel consumption.” As for environmental awareness, “it will never pick up. Environmentalism should be endorsed by the government, not by the private sector. But you do what you can do for the environment.”

Negib Debs Brand manager, T. Gargour & Fils  Mercedes-Benz, Smart

For Negib Debs, brand manager of Mercedes at T. Gargour & Fils, the sports utility vehicle (SUV) segment is a “fashion statement.”

“People go for a brand because they see such and such a singer driving it, or an important personality, it’s a fashion and sales boom,” said Debs.

“For a family to drive up to Faraya, an SUV makes sense, but for a lady driving a Hummer in Ashrafieh, it doesn’t. It’s too wide for the roads, yet it’s a fashion statement. People also follow a design, and in my opinion I’m afraid of such trends because when people follow a design, after one to two years, max three, this design is obsolete and it is not a sustainable business.”

“When you start with an S-Class Mercedes nobody cares about fuel consumption or CO2 emissions, or what they’re concerned about in Europe,” he continued. “We’re still quite far off. In Europe, you pay $1,000 more for a cleaner car, but here people don’t care, there is no civic consciousness yet. People are not yet asking about fuel consumption, unfortunately, but they know everything else about a vehicle. The Lebanese love cars, and many come here knowing everything about the vehicle, including particular details.”

The number of new and luxury cars on Lebanese roads often puzzles visitors to the country, given the low GDP per capita of $11,100 per year and a minimum wage of $333 per month.

“Around 5 percent of people can afford luxury cars, which is around 100,000 people, so with total new car sales per year of 33,000, this makes sense,” explained Debs.

December 17, 2009 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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