A drizzle of three initial public offerings on the Saudi Stock Exchange in October added some $52 million — small change in the world of IPOs — to this year’s regional primary markets. Slow but measurable progress in the region’s IPO market has pushed the total new equity raised in the region’s capital markets in the first nine months of 2009 to nearly $2.5 billion, according to the Regional Press Network, representing an 83 percent drop from the same period in 2008.
This quarter’s activity is a far cry from the heated IPO activity of a few years ago but a notable improvement from record lows in the first quarter of 2009. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Gulf Cooperation Council witnessed two IPOs in the third quarter, raising $728 million, compared to six new listings in the three months to June 2009, which raised $1.12 billion. However, investors and analysts expect a return to much higher IPO activity in 2010, encouraged by new life in global markets that points to respectable performances of recently floated companies in the region.
Reversing course
Six of the region’s eight newly listed stocks that started trading in the second half of 2009 have achieved share price gains substantially above the gains of their respective benchmark indices in the same period. Vodafone Qatar has traded below issue price since August, unsurprising given the size and circumstance of its offering.
Companies with IPO plans can also take encouragement from subscription ratios in the Middle East North Africa region, which have been better than expected in the past few months. Three Saudi stocks — insurers mandated under their license terms to offer shares to the public — closed their subscription periods on October 9, and reported oversubscription demand ranging from 7.5 to 11.6 times the available capital.
Observers say that the same “perfect storm” of dynamics that brought the IPO market to a halt in 2008 seems to have started to reverse course, and may now be helping to slowly rebuild IPO market fundamentals. According to Bloomberg research analyst Samer Shaheen. “The IPO market is expected to pick up some steam in the fourth quarter of 2009 and investors’ appetite for risk seems to be full speed ahead, as the IPO market has turned out some real dogs with fleas in the fourth quarter,” he said.
According to the latest figures, at least 85 IPOs have been announced for 2010, of which 34 will be in Saudi Arabia. However, the IPO market is expected to spring back to life during the last quarter of 2009 with more than seven new IPOs announced so far.
Saudi Arabian Airlines said it will offer a 30 percent stake of its catering unit in an IPO in 2010. Although the company did not specify the amount it wants to raise, it appointed Calyon Bank Saudi Arabia as the IPO advisor. The company’s goal is to “do a private sale, get some expertise, improve the efficiency, and move forward to an IPO market at a stage where there is still growth in the company,” said director general, Khalid al-Molhem.
Dubai not so lucky
The region’s most battered economy, the United Arab Emirates, failed to register any IPO announcements in 2009. A faint promise of an IPO came from Abu Dhabi’s Invest AD, which plans to float 25 to 33 percent of its shares through an IPO in the next three to five years. The company, which recently changed its name from Abu Dhabi Investment Co., did not disclose the amount it would like to raise, but chief executive Nazem Fawwaz al-Kudsi said it is “not in the business of doing a quick deal and flipping things over.”
In Qatar, the region’s hottest up and coming economy, the newly established Damman Islamic Insurance Co. or Bima, said it plans to launch an IPO two years after it begins operations in January 2010, as required by market regulations. The company, which was set up by Qatar Islamic Bank, Qatar Insurance Co., Al Rayan Bank, Barwa Real Estate Co. and QInvest, did not provide additional details.
In Egypt plans are underway to privatize four new river ports and offer them to the public in early 2010. The government expects the country’s transportation sector to grow by at least 8 percent in 2010. Container trading capacity is slated to increase by 260 percent, to reach 8 million containers by 2010.
Tunisia’s Société Tunisienne de Réassurance (Tunis Re), said its plans to launch an IPO in the last quarter of 2009. It did not say how much it seeks to raise, but has appointed BNA Capitaux and Maxula Bourse as lead managers.
The Beirut Stock Exchange, the Levant’s least active stock market after Syria, may see the listing of Naas Bikfaya Mineral Water Co., a company that had been dormant but was recently acquired (86 percent stake) by Beirut-based FFA Private Bank and associates. FFA said it plans to re-launch Naas and offer a substantial portion as an IPO sometime in 2010.
Analysts say the seven announced IPOs show that liquidity has improved, along with better pricing and credit spreads. Rising valuations and regained investor confidence will continue to contribute to a more positive environment.
“No one is predicting a return to the boom era days when more than 200 companies went public a year, but some financiers and bankers say the market could soon recover to the level of 100 or so IPOs a year,” Shaheen added.
Regional Press Network