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Internet & Communications TechnologySpecial Report

Sami al-Basheer al-Morshid (Q&A)

by Executive Staff September 26, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Sami al-Basheer al-Morshid is the current director of the Telecommunication Development Bureau at the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), the United Nations agency that works with governments and the private sector to advance information and communications technology (ICT) worldwide. With more than 23 years experience in the regional and global telecommunications industry, al-Morshid has held several high-level posts within governments and the private sector, including the position of chief of the regional office for Arab states at the ITU. In August he sat down with Executive to offer his insights on the regional ICT sector and how countries in the region should reform the sector in order to meet global standards.

E Liberalization in regional markets has been slow to come about. Many governments in the region still view their existing telecommunications operators as cash-cows and this has resulted in prohibitive pricing and bad planning models. Do you see this changing, taking into account that the financial crisis is making governments more conservative in general? 

This is what we are trying to do at the ITU by organizing the global symposium for regulators, which will be held in Lebanon. Regulators from all over the world [will] come [together] in one place and exchange ideas, adopt best practices [and talk about] where it worked and where it didn’t, how much regulation is needed and how much involvement from the government is enough. It’s funny that we are talking about this at a time when we have a financial crisis, where even the most open market countries like the US and the UK are coming back and erecting [trade] barriers and adopting protectionism. We hope this will not happen in telecom, because we feel, and we have studies to prove it, that the ICT sector is the least affected by the financial crisis. It is going to be affected but it is the least affected. Some experts go even further and think this is the sector that is going to solve the problem of the whole world, even the financial problem. In short, yes, we feel there are steps being taken by governments themselves and through regional and multilateral forums like the ITU. We are trying to find the right balance in terms of a regulatory framework where you don’t have it completely free, but at the same time you have a balance [between government and regulator].

E When you start talking to governments about independent regulators, do alarm bells start going off as governments fear they will lose a major source of income?

That has been true until recent years. Many developing countries, including the Arab countries, thought [infrastructure and telecommunications were] a goldmine for the government’s budget. The good news is that when these governments realized this [the advantages of liberalization] and partially opened their markets, they had better services, more affordable prices and more output even in terms of government budgets. Because most developing countries, including Arabic countries, own the infrastructure, when you talk about the regulatory framework in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, you find that 70 to 80 percent of the shares of these incumbent companies are still owned by the government.

But the good thing is they are working on a commercial basis. With only 30 percent of the shares of, for example, Etisalat or Saudi Telecom created, all of this improvement is in services. Can you imagine how it would be if you increase this [private] share of the market? I promote a gradual approach in this aspect. There is no single government in the world that opens up directly. Even the UK and France took a long time to do that. We try to talk a lot about the global village and open competition.

E In light of what you just said, how do Arab countries measure up to other developing nations?

The Arab countries are doing much better than a lot of developing countries. If we are talking about the Gulf countries, penetration rates for mobile [service] are over 100 percent. You have middle income countries like Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and others and you have the least developed counties, such as Yemen and Djibouti, where we have the biggest problem.

E So there really is an oil divide and that line is clearly drawn. Wouldn’t this logically mean that the middle to lower income economies would want to embrace liberalization faster, for commercial means at least? But this is not happening. Is it just because of the politics of poorer countries or are there other reasons?

In my personal opinion this is a misperception. The least developed counties in the region have financial problems and they are struggling. Although it is logical that they should open up, at the same time, it is a matter of administration and management, where they are so preoccupied with food, agriculture and security which is [the] number one [priority]. Iraq is a good example of a rich country where unfortunately the services are terrible, especially in fixed and broadband. It’s simply because they have other priorities. Security and stability are number one, [because] you don’t only attract direct investment but you also have the security to really have the confidence to open up the system. If you are hungry you don’t have time for luxury, although [ICT] is not a luxury anymore — it’s a basic need.

E What is the biggest concern for governments when they look at the private sector?

There are many things they look at. In some countries it’s for security reasons, and in others its competition for business. Who gets the largest piece of the cake? Is it my internal and domestic investors [and] how much I can guarantee them this? It’s about how the government can make sure that the whole population gets the benefits of this privatization and not only a rich businessman or individual who can take over the whole thing. That’s why you see that when most government offer their tenders after they open up, they have a consortium where they say, for instance, 30 percent [ownership] has to be from within and this has to be comprised of five or six unions from within the country. This is to avoid having one person or company control the sector. This is wise and has been done beautifully in some countries. Some countries are still reluctant to open up. We are working closely with them to encourage them to do so by giving them advice and training some of their people. The good news is that this is high on the agenda. In Syria we are expecting this to happen anytime.

E How about Lebanon’s regulator? There have been suggestions that the regulator is not independent of the government.

Lebanon has a regulator. I don’t know how independent the regulator is now but from what I see from the Lebanese government, they are heading toward that. Lebanon has a special situation. You remember that Lebanon was the first country to introduce mobile [and it had] the highest penetration in the Arab region. Security and regional conflicts affected the sector and this is understandable. This is a rich sector if you have the right transparent, independent rules and regulations — [then] the money is no problem, the money is there. But you have to make sure that it is transparent, it’s open and it’s fair competition, and those countries which have succeeded to do that have taken off in the right direction.

September 26, 2009 0 comments
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Internet & Communications TechnologySpecial Report

The big broadband JOKE

by Executive Staff September 26, 2009
written by Executive Staff

The long hours Lebanon’s Internet users spend sitting in front of their computers waiting for content to download is not the fault of some computer conspiracy. The decrepit state of the Internet is the result of poor governance, suffocating bureaucracy, illegal internet providers and sectarian politics. 

Illegal Internet networks made headlines last month when a microwave transmission connection installed on top of the Barouk Mountain in the Chouf region of Lebanon was alleged to have been taking bandwidth from Israel.

The incident set off a wave of accusations from Member of Parliament Ahmad Houry, part of the March 14 parliamentary bloc that won last June’s elections, against the present care-taker telecom Minister Gebran Bassil, who is part of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) opposition party. Houry claimed Minister Bassil was somehow involved in facilitating the illegal connection.  Hezbollah, allies of the FPM, said that the connection was discovered in April but “a large political party” had prevented the station from being raided earlier. The minister, who did not respond to requests for an interview, has denied the allegations. The station was installed in 2006, however, when Marwan Hamade — a March 14 ally — was telecommunications minister.

Sources in the telecommunications industry, who asked not to be identified in order to speak freely, told Executive that the station owner has not been arrested, which is “very weird,” said Habib Torbey, head of the Lebanese Telecommunications Association (LTA).

Mohamad Safa, an adviser to Bassil — who stressed that he speaks for himself and not the minister — said there were “many partners involved” in the Barouk business, which he claims is now being made an issue in order to maintain the “oligopoly” of Lebanon’s legal Internet providers, who are losing market share to unlicensed providers.

“Some of them [the partners] have been arrested and some have not, but there are no real details because these are security-related matters,” he added. “No one will be able to tell you who the ‘godfather’ is, and if they do they are lying.”

Ironically, the Barouk incident has also cast light upon how technically uncomplicated it would be to increase bandwidth in the country.

“The official sector has [a bandwidth of] only 1 gigabit per second (Gbps). The Israeli antenna of Barouk alone had 10 Gbps,” said Riad Bahsoun, telecom expert at the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), a UN agency for information and communications technology; Bahsoun also advises the Lebanese government on telecom issues. Telecom Minister Bassil recently contradicted this statement though, saying the station was only transmitting 300 megabits per second (Mbps). 

Does Lebanon have broadband?

Illegal Internet providers in Lebanon service more than half the market, and for good reason —  Lebanon’s legal internet is slow.  Even with these illegal suppliers, however, Lebanon’s market is grossly undersupplied.

Many Internet service providers, like Cyberia and IDM, as well as state provider Ogero, claim they provide broadband internet service.  That assertion is debatable. 

“Nothing [in the market] is really broadband,” said the LTA’s Torbey when asked why his company, GlobalCom Data Services, which owns Inconet Data Management (IDM), one of Lebanon’s largest Internet Service Providers, advertises their Internet service as broadband.

The definition of broadband is foggy. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) defines broadband as a transmission capacity that is 1.5 to 2 megabits per second (Mbps). In the United States, the Federal Communication Commission is currently seeking public comment on what should constitute broadband, with the goal being to help consumers. The current minimum bandwidth to qualify as broadband in the US is 0.75 Mbps. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development defines broadband as 0.25 Mbps in at least one direction. This rate is the most common baseline that is marketed as “broadband” around the world. 

Salam Yamout, co-founding member of the Lebanese Broadband Stakeholders Group, a local lobby group that pushes for broadband in Lebanon, defines broadband as 100 Mbps “at the access point for businesses and people who require it.”

The Internet speeds available to the Lebanese public today vary from 0.125 Mbps to 2.3 Mbps.  Lebanon’s Internet download speed averages 0.59 Mbps, according to Ookla Net Metrics, an Internet diagnostic company. Ookla says the world average is about 10 times that, at 5.5 Mbps.

It’s astonishing to think that these speeds represent major  progress since Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) technology became available in the summer of 2007. 

“The introduction of DSL was a very good step although it was long, long, long overdue,” said Leila Serhan, country director at Microsoft Lebanon. “It is still a very shy step and [the slow speed] is definitely hindering the introduction of a lot of the services you can get on the Internet.”

That hindrance has led to a low penetration rate for Internet service, resulting in a vast untapped market for broadband Internet. With ADSL penetration, a precursor to broadband Internet, at less than 10 percent of the population and consumers willing to adopt new technologies, there is ample room for the market to grow, yet it has not.

“There is no network and there is no infrastructure,” said a multinational telecommunications executive who asked to remain anonymous in order to speak freely.

The lack of decent Internet has also hindered Lebanon’s business world. Khalil Letayf, deputy general manager of Société Générale de Banque au Liban and a member of the Lebanese Broadband Stakeholders Group, explained that because of the lack of broadband, his bank has to incur extra costs to make physical backups instead of transferring data over the Internet, due to of the lack of reliable infrastructure. He said that, as a result of operating in such an environment, the risk factors associated with all the banks have increased.

Why so slow?

Lebanon’s Internet market does not run on a network made for data, but rather one made for voice. The current network was built by Siemens, Ericsson and Nokia in the early 1990s with $1.3 billion of funding from the World Bank. There has been no comprehensive plan for improving the infrastructure since then.

“What Lebanon has done since 1994 is build [its telecom infrastructure] in blocks,” said the ITU’s Bahsoun. Bahsoun explains that in the 1990s telecom operations like Internet and mobile were separate, and “back then they didn’t know that all these [Internet and communications technology] services, were going to converge.”

Since then, there has been little restructuring and Lebanon’s telecom ministry today is a fragmented body with two general directorates, a separate office that deals with mobile communications and miles of red tape holding it all together.

Meanwhile, regional telecoms have stayed on the cutting edge of Internet technology and service. Telecom services have been combined and broadband with hassle-free, high-speed upload and download is a reality across the region — but not in Lebanon. Transfering data is a costly and cumbersome process that involves the converting the data into a format suitable for transmission over Lebanon’s archaic network. The result for consumers is low quality and speed in tandem with high costs. The economy surely suffers, as broadband penetration has become a key economic indicator. The World Bank estimates that every 10 percent increase in broadband penetration accelerates economic growth by 1.3 percent.

Lebanon’s telecommunications market indicators as of December 2008

Source: TRA Annual Report 2008
* Household penetration for residential subscribers
** Household penetration

Where’s the problem?

Because the government only allows Internet service providers (ISPs) a miniscule amount of bandwidth — the measure of available data communication resources — there is no variety in the market. The packages offered by the county’s ISPs are identical in terms of speed, meaning all the options available are relatively similar. What makes matters worse is that the ISPs impose download ceilings or charge for additional downloads above a certain level. This has resulted in a situation where the typical Internet user in Lebanon pays eight times more than a typical user in similar countries like Jordan and Egypt.

Unlike the rest of the telecom sector in Lebanon, which is owned by the government, the retail Internet market does operate under conditions of limited competition. That fact has spurred the growth of several ISPs and Data Service Providers (DSPs). Both are licensed by the Telecom Regulatory Authority (TRA), Lebanon’s telecom regulator — the only difference being that DSPs are assigned a certain frequency they can use to provide services. At present, there are around 20 ISPs and 6 DSPs and many are owned by the same people who typically have connections to politicians. One example is the CableOne DSP, which also owns the Lynx ISP, and is partly owned by Karim Hamade, the son of Lebanon’s previous telecom minister Marwan Hamade. One of the largest DSPs, Sodetel, is half owned by the Ministry of Telecommunications itself and Solidere, the large real estate developer which was founded by the late Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.  The Hariri family also hold a major stake in the Cyberia ISP.

No matter how many connections exist or how much competition there is, without adequate infrastructure and capacity the market cannot grow. The problem is rooted in the amount of available bandwidth in the country and who controls it. Officially, the total amount of bandwidth in the country last january did not exceed 260 Mbps, according to the Telecom Regulatory Authority (TRA), but most observers put the figure today at around one Gbps. This, however, does not take into account the illegal market which controls “40 to 60 percent of the market,” according to Torbey. The Ministry of Telecommunications distributes all the bandwidth in the country and does not release detailed information, even to the TRA.

Monthly charge for 30 gigabytes of download using 1Mbps residential DSL

Source: Operator websites

How to make it better?

In order to legally increase the level of bandwidth however, sizeable investments have to be made to create a “national backbone” in Lebanon. The national backbone will be like an information superhighway that connects the major cities of Lebanon.

“Instead of a superhighway, what you have are small, small roads,” said Kamal Shehadi, chairman of the TRA. “The connectivity between these places is not what it should be.”

Bassil has announced several projects in order to upgrade the current infrastructure, including an upgrade of the existing system like the backbone project.

One development expected to take place is a pilot project in the Hamra and Ashrafieh districts of Beirut that will, in theory, lay down fiber cables. The $14 million project aims to supply better connectivity to residents as well as provide a reference for a previously announced project to build a national backbone that the ministry estimates will cost around $64 million. But even the pilot project has yet to commence and the budget has not been approved by the Council of Ministers.

“They need decisions and they have not got all the decisions,” said the ITU’s Bahsoun.

The decisions in question must be made by the telecom ministry. The telecom ministry today consists of two general directorates, the Directorate of Operations and Maintenance and the Directorate of Construction and Equipment. Moreover, the Directorate of Operations and Maintenance, headed by Abdulmenaim Youssef, also controls the government-owned company that runs the current Internet infrastructure holder, Ogero.

List of offers and prices in Lebanon as appearing on operators’ websites ($/month)

Notes:
.All ISPs except MoT are offering an unlimited download capacity at night with double the speed 
.Sodetel is offering an unlimited download package for 128 and 256 kbps speeds
.na = price not available on website / UL= Unlimited download capacity 
.Prices are subject to 10% VAT 
Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority

A mess of a ministry

“It is one of the most embarrassing aspects [of Lebanese telecoms] that the person implementing and supervising [the implementation] is the same person,” said Safa, the telecom minister’s advisor.

Youssef did not respond to repeated requests for comment. He was appointed to both posts by Lebanon’s former telecom minister Marwan Hamade in 2005. Beyond being a gross contravention of efficient corporate governance, the position that Youssef maintains has made it almost impossible to ascertain who is in charge of what at the ministry. When Executive called Naji Andraous, the director general of construction and maintenance, to acquire information about the status of the pilot project’s progress, Andaous’ office said that Youssef was in charge.

“Abdulmenaim Youssef is reluctant to progress in Lebanon [sic],” claimed Bahsoun.

Youssef held the position of general director of the Directorate of Operations and Maintenance from 1995 to 1999, when he was imprisoned and later released in an extremely politicized struggle for control over the telecom industry. He is widely seen as the representative of current caretaker Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his political coalition’s interests.

“[Youssef’s] appointments were made at the behest of the previous governments and Prime Minister [Siniora],” says Safa.

It is worth noting that Safa is an advisor to telecom minister Bassil, who is part of the opposition to Siniora’s ruling March 14 coalition. The minister has become the focal point of Lebanon’s most recent political debacle between Michel Aoun, Bassil’s father in-law, and Saad Hariri, the prime minister-designate. Aoun is insisting that Bassil maintain his position at the helm of the telecom ministry.

But the fight over control of the sector seems to run much deeper than the ordinary squabbling between Lebanon’s politicians. Lebanon’s telecom law, Law 431, outlines the legal procedures that should be followed in order to reform the sector. The trouble is that the law has been implemented in pieces, and as such, its interpretation has been a contested topic between the TRA, the telecom ministry and all the political and commercial interests pegged to both bodies.

“If you implement [the law] in parts, especially when politics are involved, you take the parts that you like and the spirit of the law is lost,” said Safa.

The law calls for the creation of a joint stock company called Liban Telecom that will be granted a license to operate for 20 years and provide all other telephony services to the public. Liban Telecom will also acquire the assets of the current operator, Ogero, which includes the current Internet and phone network and any upgrades made to it.

The latest point of contention between the ministry and the TRA is how to increase the bandwidth in the country. Having already announced the expansion projects, the ministry’s current direction is to start by increasing the bandwidth themselves. Critics say the process is hampered by the inner workings of the ministry, especially Youssef’s offices.

Internet speed test from Executive’s offices in Beirut on a typical Monday afternoon in August

Source: Ookla Net Metrics

Evasive and unaccountable

“The minister asked in a letter about how the E1s are being distributed and the Abdulmenaim Youssef says ‘don’t respond,’” said Bahsoun. (An E1 is a measure of bandwidth equal to 2 Mbps). “When the minister calls [to follow up], he says ‘I don’t know, the letter went missing.’”

Even the Telecom Regulatory Authority’s annual report criticizes the telecom ministry because it will “only release limited information” about the current DSL market, “and as a result, it has been difficult to analyze the root causes of this slow development.” The report goes on to state that “it can be concluded that while some of the problems stem from anti-competitive behavior, others relate to the lack of appropriate investments.”

Factor in the political rivalries in Lebanon and the prospect of broadband becomes even less probable.

“If your objective is to make the minister fail then, you move like a tortoise and tell people that the minister does not act,” said Safa. [As stated above, calls to Youssef’s office to respond to these, and other statements, were not returned]. 

The other option on the table would be to allow the private sector to install, operate and provision broadband services. However, this too has become a point of contention between Lebanon’s ministry and its regulator.

The TRA wants to offer three “National Broadband Carrier Licenses” to the private sector which would allow them to install the fiber optic cables needed to facilitate broadband Internet and sell the services to end users. One of these licenses would legally have to go to Liban Telecom and other two would be offered in an open international auction. The proposal has been opposed by the minister who has issued his own policy paper stating that he would offer the already existing DSPs (data service providers) one of the two remaining licenses.

Proposed Telecom Regulatory Authority liberalization scheme

Source: TRA Annual Report 2008
Note: The above liberalization ‘roadmap’ was updated in line with the development of the market and presented by the TRA in December 2008.

TRA vs the telecom minister

“The T.R.A. prepared the tender for the mobile licenses and this process was suspended by political decision”

The ministry’s position has in part been facilitated by the fact that the law has not been fully implemented and Liban Telecom, the body that the TRA is mandated to regulate, does not exist.

“The [ministry’s policy paper] has a schizophrenic nature,” said Shehadi. “On the one hand it said the TRA is not respecting the law and it is being autonomous. On the other hand it said clearly ‘I want to change the law to make the TRA depend on and report to the minister.’”

Law 431 does say the minister is granted the authority to “establish the general rules for the regulation of telecommunications services in Lebanon” but it also says the TRA has the authority to “organize the bidding process, and issue, execute, oversee, amend, enforce, suspend and revoke licenses.” The minister’s policy paper also criticizes the TRA for not issuing licenses.

“That is bull,” said Shehadi angrily. “The TRA prepared the tender for the mobile licenses and this process was suspended by political decision, not by the TRA. The TRA has [also] issued licenses to about 6 DSPs and about 20 ISPs.”

Shehadi also criticized the minister for not forwarding the TRA’s draft licensing regulation to the Shura council, Lebanon’s highest court, in order to begin the bidding process. Safa defended the minister’s right to amend the legislation if he sees fit.

As far as the DSPs are concerned, they are happy to go along with the minister’s policy because it serves their purposes by protecting them from large international players.

Shehadi, on the other hand, says this policy and the position of the DSPs are putting Lebanon’s economic future at risk by erecting barriers to trade and going against the government’s stated liberalization policy.

“The four wireless service providers who claim, pretend or call for protection from foreign investors are jeopardizing Lebanon’s accession to the World Trade Organization, and Lebanon’s trade commitments to the European Union and to all of our trading partners, for very specific, vary narrow private interests,” Shehadi said, adding that any international player in his right mind “will ally with one of the incumbents,” so they should not fear international entrants.

“We are not trying to recreate a new monopoly or oligopoly,” protests the LTA’s Torbey. “We do believe in competition and free markets. He said that the TRA “cannot start with a clean slate as if nothing has happened in the past,” referring to their presence in the market and the preferential treatment they seek to gain.

Law 431, however, does state that “no discrimination or restrictions shall be imposed on providing the services, as no such restrictions shall be imposed on owning or operating the necessary infrastructure to provide these services.”

But it seems politics have once again stunted the implementation of the law. “In principle the TRA is right, but the minister is the political representative and implements the politics of the government,” said Safa.

Each delay makes the situation in the telecom industry worse and facilitates the wrangling for power over the sector

Liban Telecom and sectarian politics

When it comes to political appointments in Lebanon, horse trading is commonplace and as such the country’s politicians have yet to come to a consensus over the chairman and board of directors of Liban Telecom. Each delay makes the situation in the telecom industry worse and facilitates the wrangling for power over the sector. So why hasn’t Lebanon Telecom been established?

If it is ever created, Liban Telecom will be regulated by the TRA, thus releasing the control the ministry currently wields over the network as well as dissolving the current operator of the network, Ogero. This will mean that Youssef and the interests that he represents will also have less control over the sector.

Law 431 also states that the government “may, within a period of two years of the establishment of the company [Liban Telecom], sell a portion not exceeding 40 percent” to a strategic partner. That strategic partner could be anyone from the operators who are present on the market, such as Zain and Orascom, or those allied with political parties in Lebanon that have a stake in the telecom industry.

Whether or not there is a setup in the works may be one thing, but the creation of Liban Telecom also seems to hinge upon another of Lebanon’s more unpleasant sectarian realities.

“The [future] board of Liban Telecom will need to split according to the confessions of the members and a lot of power has been given to the chairman. The chairman will have to be decided on the basis of confession,” said Safa.

Here again there seems to be some horse trading at play because to appoint a member of one confession to a major post means there has to be a balance somewhere else. Sometimes that balance is not maintained and institutions function (or malfunction) without the presence of supervisors, or the intended accountability structures. The Lebanese government to date has failed to even appoint all of its mayors — the very officials who are responsible for providing basic services to the country’s population — let alone appointing the board of a nonexistent entity like Liban Telecom.

“You are in a country where there are sectarian issues,” said the ITU’s Bahsoun. “You have ministers who don’t know why they are ministers; it’s a system.”

Supposing Lebanon’s bickering politicians do eventually work out their differences over the telecom ministry, Liban Telecom, privatization, the national licenses, international commercial interests and the implementation of Law 431, serious work will have to be done to implement a national backbone. This would seem to be a tall order for Lebanon’s politicians who still cannot agree over the formation of a cabinet, let alone implement a progressive economic policy. One can’t forget that the same politicians who are hampering the advancement of an essential economic development tool were also elected last June by the people who still pay exorbitant fees for archaic Internet access.

But, as the ITU’s Bahsoun said: “If the people are happy, what can you do?”

September 26, 2009 0 comments
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Internet & Communications TechnologySpecial Report

The telecommunications divide

by Executive Staff September 26, 2009
written by Executive Staff

In the midst of the global economic downturn, governments and private companies have cut costs and slashed budgets. But one look at regional information and communication technology (ICT) investment shows that that the situation is better than it seems. 

In terms of ICT infrastructure, countries in the Middle East and North Africa have lagged behind developed countries for decades. Nonetheless, governments have been willing to pump millions of dollars of investment into building the appropriate infrastructure. Before the onset of the global economic downturn in the region, Gulf Cooperation Council governments alone were expected to allocate around 25 percent of their infrastructure development funds to expanding ICT frameworks. Accordingly, the market was expected to generate $70 billion in annual sales revenue by 2015. Today that figure is markedly lower and will depend on how the region weathers the global downturn.

“There hasn’t been huge growth this year because of a slowdown on the consumer side,” says Leo Psara, chairman of Minerva, the largest regional distributor for Motorola wireless broadband in the region.

Even so, governments have not backtracked on their commitment to ICT infrastructure investment, but rather have only given up on “like-to-have” projects, according to one regional ICT executive.

“I have seen some [infrastructure] projects go on a short-term hold, but on the whole business is still strong,” says Psara.

That said, regional governments still remain relatively reluctant to fully liberalize their markets and open up the ICT infrastructure sector to provide a competitive framework that translates into accessible technology for citizens.

Sami al-Morshid, director of the Telecommunications Development Bureau at the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), the United Nations agency for ICT that works with governments and the private sector to promote best practices in the market, says that there are multiple reasons for this. “In some countries it’s for security reasons and in others its competition for business,” he says. “Who gets the largest piece of the cake? Is it my internal and domestic investors [and] how much I can guarantee them this?”

The technology race

Liberalized or not, many countries in the region, especially in the GCC, have been keen to invest in and improve ICT services. In the Gulf, governments account for 20 percent of all spending on ICT services. The United Arab Emirates has been increasing their ICT spending to facilitate the expansion of services for years. In 2008, the Emirates registered a total ICT budget of $3.1 billion, a budget that is expected to reach $4.7 billion per year by 2013, according to Business Monitor International. 

Much of this spending has been focused on digitalizing government functions to create a more efficient ‘e-government’ that boosts economic activity by facilitating automated, online procurement for government suppliers. “Across the government entity and the government businesses there has been a massive drive towards doing e-business, both with their customers and internally,” says Psara. 

Given that the government is usually the largest consumer in a country, the advantages of an efficient e-government cannot be understated. “E-procurement of the government, which is the biggest purchaser of goods and services, fosters the whole ecosystem for ICT development [in a country],” says Raymond Khoury, a principal at Booz and Company who consults on Internet technology strategy in the public sector.

But no matter how much emphasis is placed on e-government, there is still much to be done to provide essential technologies to populations.

“One of the main bottlenecks in the region is affordable and accessible infrastructure,” says Khoury. “There is still much more work to be done in terms of reducing the costs of broadband, which today is becoming a key performance indicator for any measurement of any country.”

That affordability has been constrained by the fact that government ownership of service provision has stunted competition in the region and kept prices at levels that separate the haves from the have-nots. 

“This is often something that most of these developing economies do not look at,” says Lelia Serhan, country manager at Microsoft Lebanon. “They just go and build this infrastructure, pricing it in a way that probably furthers the digital divide inside these countries.”

Selected ICT indicators for MENA countries, 2008

Source: International Telecommunications Union – 2008

The MENA region overall lags behind global standards for e-government readiness

Arab World countries versus global e-governement readiness

Note: PPP = purchasing power parity.
Source: UN E-Government Survey 2008: “From E-Government to Connected Government”; CIA Factbook; Booz & Company analysis

E-government readiness in MENA countries steadily improving

Source: UN E-Government Survey 2008: “From E-Government to Connected Government”; UN Global E-Government Readiness Report 2005: “From E-Government to E-Inclusion”

Online expense

The issue of prohibitive pricing is not a new one. For decades the region has been plagued by business models that are a direct result of inadequate planning by incumbent operators, typically owned by the government and regarded as cash cows.

“This whole notion… where we don’t want to hear the word privatization is also a political phrase without any beef,” says Khoury. “There has to be… a study that will easily prove whether it is monopolies or liberalized markets that introduce broadband at affordable prices [and subsequently] increase uptake and volume of resources.”

Indeed, some regional governments have been willing to adopt a ‘big picture’ perspective and allow companies to compete for licenses to develop infrastructure and provision services to the population.

“We are trying to find the right balance in terms of a regulatory framework where you have… a balance [between government and regulator],” says Morshid.

Spurring on that realization is the connection drawn by many economists between broadband penetration and increased gross domestic product of a country.  “The big potential going forward is broadband,” says Andreas Hessler, vice president of networks at Ericsson Middle East. “Broadband is a very poorly penetrated market in the region because you have low bit rates and unreasonably high pricing still.”

Every 10 percent increase in broadband penetration within a population translates into a 1.3 percent jump in total GDP, according to the World Bank. With such encouraging statistics, it is little wonder why governments are now changing tact.

“Until recent years, many developing countries, including the Arab countries, thought this [infrastructure and telecommunications] was a goldmine for the government budget,” says Morshid. “The good news is that when these governments realized [the advantage of liberalization] and partially opened their markets, they had better services, more affordable prices and more output even in terms of government budgets.”

Still, governments own around 70 to 80 percent of incumbent companies in the region, according to Morshid.

Broadband access today is heterogeneous around the region, with service providers in Saudi Arabia offering download speeds of up to 29.04 megabits per second (Mbps) to Lebanon where the speeds average around 0.5 Mbps.

ICT spending in GCC markets, actual and projected, in $millions

Note: Actual data for 2005-2007, Forecast data for 2008-2011, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar estimated
Source: Digital Planet 2008 (WITSA), Booz & Company analysis

As a direct result of public ownership, the ability of each individual country in the region to improve its infrastructure, facilitate affordable services and encourage ICT use by its population depends on how much money is present in government coffers. This reality has created another digital divide within the region between richer oil producing countries and poorer non-oil producing countries.

“Countries in the GCC have piled up sufficient revenue and sovereign fund cash that allows them to be more generous in their spending on ICT in general, and on infrastructure in particular,” says Khoury. “Those without oil need to be selective. They are selective in their projects and the priority is on reductions in cost.”

Due to regional conflicts and socio-economic realities, many countries in the region are forced to focus their strategies on issues like security, food and agriculture, which Morshid says often preempt ambitions for the ICT sector. He gives the example of Iraq as a country where there is enormous potential, yet the lack of stability has led to a lack of the needed “confidence to open up the system.”

A real regulator

Reluctance to open up regional ICT markets is exemplified by governments’ reluctance to establish strong, independent regulators to keep their markets competitive, and to ensure access to essential technologies like broadband for both urban and rural populations.

Unless regional governments are willing to change, it seems the population of the region will have to settle for infrastructure that is out of step with global standards and practices. According to the ITU, a total of seven countries in the Middle East do not have an independent regulator, which is seen as a precursor to development of ICT.

“This is a rich sector if you have the right transparent independent rules and regulations. [Then] the money is no problem, the money is there,” says Morshid. “But [first] you have to make sure that it is transparent, it’s open and it’s fair competition.”

Every 10% increase in broadband penetration within a population translates to a 1.3% rise in total G.D.P.

September 26, 2009 0 comments
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Real estate

For your information

by Executive Staff September 26, 2009
written by Executive Staff

UAE’s second quarter results

Emaar’s second quarter results beat the estimates of both the investment banking firm EFG-Hermes and Al Mal Capital Investment Bank. The income growth was mainly the result of the rental income which recorded a growth of 357 percent quarter-on-quarter, and of newly completed homes that are being handed over in Turkey and Pakistan.

Emaar also wrote-off the full remaining balance of its exposure to US Subsidiary JL Homes, which decreased the value of its development properties and lowered the firm’s total debt. According to Al Mal Capital, the write-down will lead to a positive reaction in the stock market, but investors should “avoid the stock” until there is more clarity regarding the merger of Emaar with Dubai Holdings’ three real estate entities. While Al Mal Capital kept Emaar’s rating under review, EFG-Hermes upgraded the stock to neutral, while sharing Al Mal Capital’s opinion on avoiding it at the moment.

Union Properties, a Dubai-based property investment developer, had its revenue results categorized by EFG-Hermes as “strongly disappointing.” It also described the liquidity position of the company as “far from healthy,” and predicted it would further deteriorate if deliveries of properties continued to be slower than expected, with rentals being filled up very slowly and adding to the difficulties of receiving cash payments. EFG-Hermes said it is likely to reduce the revenue and earnings forecasts for the company in fiscal year 2009 due to the slow deliveries and the expected spill over into 2010. Due to the weak results, Al Mal Capital also downgraded Union Properties rating.

Abu Dhabi real estate company Sorouh showed better results than expected, and revenue was 43 percent higher than the estimates of EFG-Hermes. This is due to the company recognizing the sale of 11 land plots on Saraya, which comprised around 80 percent of the recorded revenue. While the revenue result was surprising, the operating income was 11.3 percent less than expected, given the low profitability of the revenue mix, as stated by the investment banking firm. EFG-Hermes downgraded the company’s rating to neutral due to the perceived slowdown in sales in Abu Dhabi, the difficulty of receiving payments and the possible need to secure funding for new projects. However, the fundamental valuation of the company remains above the current share price with a buy rating and a long-term fair value of $2.40 for its share compared, to the current price of $0.23.

Aldar, an Abu Dhabi real estate development, management and investment company, had second quarter results showing losses that were higher than estimated, according to EFG-Hermes. This is mainly due to the absence of land sales in the second quarter, as well as the slowdown in delivery and the change in prices. Still, Aldar is making subsequent progress on projects under construction. It spent around $1.3 billion on construction in the second quarter and issued $259 million in five-year bonds which increased its liability to $9.7 billion. EFG-Hermes maintained the neutral rating for Aldar while adding that “we remain cautious about the relatively high leverage, and the absence of new sales putting pressure on the company’s cash burn rate.” Al Mal Capital also maintained the market perform rating of the company and added that long-terms investors should remain away from the stock until late 2009, estimating that it will start picking up in the second quarter of 2010.

Saudi and UAE construction delays

More than 400 projects worth more than $300 billion have been put on hold or canceled due to the global downturn in the UAE real estate market, according to the UAE-based research firm Proleads. The report added that more than 750 projects are currently under construction, while 450 are completed. The research company also wrote that the UAE market is expected to stabilize by the end of 2009, and show signs of the recovery next year.

In another report on the Saudi Arabia real estate sector, Proleads said that about 80 projects were delayed or canceled, and 350 are still under construction. Proleads based its research on 720 projects worth more than $430 billion across all sectors including education, healthcare, residential, commercial and others. Out of these, projects worth around $20 billion have been directly affected since the global slowdown began. The high risk lies in few projects which make up 2 percent of the number of developments but constitute 43 percent of the total budget.

Still, the Saudi market is considered “one of the most active in the world since it grows its infrastructure to meet domestic demand,” said Emil Rademeyer, director of Proleads Global. “Our cash-flow projections show the Saudi Arabian industry will continue building from a position of strength well into 2010, whereas other Arabian Gulf markets continue to seek stability.”

De-population in Qatar

According to new reports, the ongoing financial crisis is not the only factor threatening the growth of the Qatari real estate market. Merrill Lynch warns that the gas-driven infrastructure investment will halt by 2012. Consequently, a large number of expatriates — who represent 90 percent of the workforce and who are mainly blue collar workers — will return to their home countries, thus leaving a large number of apartments vacant and creating oversupply. Another report by the Qatar Oman Investment Company, a multi-sector investment company, said that “de-population” is already occurring, with the latest figures showing population numbers falling from 1.9 million to 1.6 million. The investment company said that there are around 15,000 vacant apartments across Doha, with many more coming online upon completion. Qatar Oman Investment Company CEO Nasser Mohamed al-Mansoory expected rents in the next two years to go back to their original levels, before the boom and inflation began to take effect. “See the newspapers. Their classifieds are full of ads for all categories of vacant houses day in and day out, clearly signaling that supply far exceeds demand,” he said.

Lebanon real estate and tourism sectors grow

The Lebanese real estate and tourism sectors witnessed a heavy inflow of investments this summer, mainly from high income Lebanese expatriates and Gulf investors, according to a Coldwell Banker report published in Kuwait’s Al Qabas newspaper. Expatriates represent 40 percent of the real estate investments, according to the report, followed by Kuwaitis, Emiratis, Saudis, Qataris and Omanis.

Gulf investors are finding many investment opportunities in residential and commercial properties, especially income generating developments like towers, hotels and land suitable for construction. They are also buying luxury apartments, villas and palaces in urban and rural areas.

Another report, published by the Inter-Arab Investment Guarantee Corporation in July, said that UAE investors plowed some $1.1 billion into the Lebanese real estate sector in 2008, constituting around 42 percent of the total Arab investment in the country for that year.

Coldwell Banker’s report also discussed the overall situation of the real estate sector in Lebanon. It stated that construction permits rose by 4 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2009, while sales transactions stabilized. The report adds that in the last five years, the value of real estate sales and construction permits increased by 16 percent on yearly average. Real estate prices have been rising by 25 to 30 percent on average for the last three years, and hit their highest increase of 50 to 60 percent in 2008 after the Doha accord. Since the crisis began, prices have corrected by 10 to 15 percent, which is a moderate decrease compared to the region. The report also expects demand to increase in the months following the calm parliamentary elections, which will increase the attractiveness of the Lebanese real estate sector in the coming period.

September 26, 2009 0 comments
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Feature

Car leasing shifts gears

by Executive Staff September 26, 2009
written by Executive Staff

While many Lebanese can’t afford to pay $80,000 in cash for a brand new luxury car, they will consider spending $12,000 on an initial down payment and $1,000 in monthly interest payments. But for those who dream of luxury driving but can’t afford the car, leasing is making dreams a reality in Lebanon.

Leases and common purchase loans offered by car dealerships and banks in Lebanon are two different methods of automobile financing. Leasing is like renting with the option to buy at a reduced price after the lease period ends.                       

When a client buys a vehicle with a loan, he pays for it by making a down payment and a monthly interest payment. When a client leases, his payment covers the expense of using the vehicle, along with a finance charge. At the end of the leasing period, clients can either return the car or purchase it for the price of a used car.

Leasing has now existed in Lebanon for over a decade, essentially in three forms: equipment leasing, car leasing offered by banks to rentals, and car leasing offered by car rentals to private companies.

“We have been leasing since 1995 equipment to the industrial sector, such as trucks, cars or mixers, as well as medical equipment to hospitals,” says Nadine Nehme, head of business development at the Lebanese Leasing Company, a subsidiary of Fransabank. Leasing to the industrial sector is subsidized in certain cases like agricultural or  new technology companies. The Lebanese Central Bank reimburses part of the interest, typically the portion added on top of the London Interbank Rate (LIBOR). 

“This particular type of leasing usually stretches over a five to seven year time period, after which, companies can buy the leased equipment for 1 percent of its cost,” says Nehme.

Fleet leasing

The Lebanese Leasing Company also offers this particular service for car rental companies in Lebanon.

“Our only restriction is that the minimum value of each deal should amount to $200,000,” says Nehme, who adds that the company offers only financial leases, which oblige clients to purchase the equipment or vehicles at the end of the lease period. 

“When it comes to car leasing, companies are bound by the contract to buy brand new vehicles,” she says. “They also need to disburse 20 percent of the cost of the fleet.”

Farid Homsi, general manager at Impex dealers of Chevrolet, Hummer, Cadillac and Isuzu, says that car leasing has grown significantly in recent years.

“We have noticed, however, that many rentals we work with require mostly small vehicles for their fleet,” he adds.

Rania Chamoun Kashar, sales and lease manager at Hala Rent-a-Car, explains that she provides leasing to private Lebanese companies who require large sales fleets.

“We have been providing this service since 1994, and we are currently leasing out over 600 cars to Lebanese companies. Our clients include brand names such as pharmaceutical company Sanofi-Aventis, Obegi and Benta trading,” she adds.

Vehicles are typically leased out for a period of 3 years, after which they will be returned and exchanged for a new car. The main advantage to this service is that clients do not need to worry about paying registration, insurance fees or service and maintenance. Cars are also immediately replaced in case of accident.

“This makes leasing a hassle-free experience,” points out Kashar, who adds that, nonetheless, some will perceive this service as somewhat expensive, particularly due to the fact that companies, under this contract, do not have the option to buy the vehicle at the end of the leasing period.

Monthly payments for car leasing at Hala varies between $350 to $7,000, the latter being the price paid monthly for a Bentley by one exclusive Beirut hotel.

Kashar underlines that Hala used to offer leasing to private individuals in 2002, but had to interrupt the service due to clients generally defaulting on payments after a few months. “Clients used the cars for a few months before abandoning them and we had no legal means to pursue them,” she explains.

Luxury cars retain higher residual values, making leasing an interesting option

The personal touch

But one company does risk leasiung cars to private individuals.

“We started leasing cars to VIP clients in 2004 and noticed that there was a growing demand for the product, one that was taking shape gradually,” says Nada Ayoub, head of finance, budget and treasury at Rymco, the dealers of Nissan, Infiniti, GMC and Kawasaki. 

“We have realized that awareness for car leasing is becoming more significant as more Lebanese expats, who have been familiarized with the concept in the west or the Gulf, return to Lebanon,” she says. 

Ayoub believes that more luxury cars will be bought on lease deals instead of being bought outright, partly because buyers want to experience luxury for a lesser cost, or prefer to use their spare money for other investments. Then again, luxury cars retain higher residual values, making lease arrangements an interesting option.

“Clients can sell their used car after a three-year period, usually for a higher price than the balloon payment [the payment that purchases a vehicle at the end of a lease] they end up settling for, which facilitates the reimbursement of the final payment,” she explains.

She adds that the main leasing advantages at Rymco are that the car is registered in the client’s name and comes with insurance coverage that includes the replacement of the vehicle in case of accident, as well as a maintenance contract for up to 60,000 kilometers. 

“Clients can save 50 percent on monthly payments compared to regular financing plans,” she adds. 

At Rymco, clients are selected by the company’s credit department, on a case-by-case basis. They are also given, at the end of the three year period, the choice to refinance their balloon payment for another three year period, pay the balloon payments and purchase the car, or finally return the car to Rymco with no further obligation.

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Feature

Losing power

by Executive Staff September 26, 2009
written by Executive Staff

In spite of widespread, frequent power cuts affecting the population, various Lebanese governments have failed to fix Lebanon’s electricity problems. 

“The main issue with the electrical sector is the lack of continuity brought by the various administrations and not corruption,” says Ziad Hayek, secretary general at the Higher Council for Privatization. 

According to an electricity expert working with the Lebanese government to improve the sector, up until 1994 ministerial decisions had to be approved not only by the minister in charge but also by the director general of the ministry.  The expert spoke anonymously because he was not authorized to comment to the media.

But, he says, starting in 1994, the power of the ministry’s directors was overturned by a decision of the Shura Council, Lebanon’s highest court. 

“This decision may have accounted for many of the problems faced today by the electricity sector,” the expert says. “Each program that was promoted by one minister was usually abandoned by the following politician, which might partially explain why Lebanon’s four main electricity plants were initially built to operate on gas, when there was no gas pipeline connecting Lebanon to a gas producing country until 2009.”

According to Lebanon’s Minister of Energy and Water, Alain Tabourian, this month one of two turbines at Lebanon’s northern Deir Ammar station will start running on gas supplied by Egypt through a pipeline. The supply from Eygpt has been delayed several times in the past year for reasons that remain unclear. 

Whatever the reasons underlying the electrical sector’s grim reality, Lebanon is constantly faced with new challenges, with the country’s electrical needs growing every year and further putting pressure on a failing network. 

Not enough charge

“Our electricity needs are increasing by 6 percent every year,” says Tabourian. “We are confronted by a growing deficit of 800 megawatts resulting from the difference between a supply of 1,500 megawatts and a demand of 2,300 megawatts. The pressure on the sector is further exacerbated by the establishment of new large industrial projects, each requiring more than 15 megawatts of electricity. Finally, our production is also losing 3 percent every year.” 

The minister attributed the state’s electrical difficulties to the aging installations.  

“Some of the plants were built over 40 years ago. Two of our plants run on heavy fuel, one on diesel and a fourth which used to be operated on diesel is now partly functioning on gas, starting at the end of August,” explains Tabourian. 

The electrical sector’s dependence on fuel has translated into a massive financial deficit for the budget of the Lebanese government. The deficit of Electricité du Liban (EDL) amounted to $1.6 billion in 2008, and $985 million in 2007, according to Marwan Mkhael, head economist at BLOM Invest Bank. 

“When we speak of a $1.7 billion deficit, we forget that the actual expenses of EDL actually exceed that figure by some $500 million dollars, representing collected bills,” Hayek points out. 

Part of the Arab pipeline that connects Egypt to Syria runs for 32 kilometers in Lebanon, stretching out from the Syrian border, but it will not impact Lebanon significantly, according to Hayek. The pipeline — which originates in the area of Arish, in Egypt, runs through the Jordanian port of Aqaba and the Al Rehab power station before ending in the Syrian city of Homs — was originally supposed to supply both turbines of Lebanon’s Deir Ammar northern plant. However, due to the recent uptick in economic activity witnessed by Egypt coupled with increased Jordanian and Israeli demand for gas, Egyptian gas production has been tightly squeezed. 

“Egypt has promised us, however, to beef up the supply by next year,” reassures Hayek.  

Tabourian explains that up until today, about 60 percent of Lebanese electricity was produced by diesel turbines, a source of energy that is more expensive than heavy fuel, hence the need for cheaper types of combustibles like gas. The heavy burden of buying expensive fuel for Lebanese plants has been aggravated in recent years by high oil prices. Last year, oil prices, at their height, reached $147 dollars per barrel.

“The deficit can’t be attributed to EDL but to the policy adopted by the various governments, which relied on heavily subsidizing the sector. This strategy is a real danger to Lebanon, if reforms fail to be institutionalized,” adds Hayek. He believes that to be efficient, subsidies need to be organized and allocated on the basis of certain considerations, such as the income level of each area, and the needs of the different economic sectors, while favoring low-income areas and specific industries.

Many EDL detractors have also mentioned the EDL labor syndicate as another obstacle on the road to revamping the sector. Hayek emphasizes, however, that syndicate members have received governmental reforms very positively. 

“Their priority is not to be left in a difficult situation, which is understandable; in any case, they do not account for more than 5 percent of the total electricity budget, which is a minor expense,” he says. 

Tabourian says that former governments have invested very little in the electricity sector in spite of the subsidies disbursed. 

“No real improvements or modernization[s] were brought to the sector. In nearly 17 years, Lebanon has only spent $750 million on improvements to the plants and $650 million on the electricity network. The fact that various governments have not made any real and tangible investments has led us to the current situation,” he says.

Another challenge faced by the sector lies in the modernization of the electrical grid. “We are also facing difficulties with the high voltage grid, which is incomplete in certain areas such as the Mansourieh region. We also need to put in place a national control center for the network,” Hayek says.

EDL also has to manage electricity theft on a daily basis, a problem played down by Tabourian. “Electricity theft is estimated at about $150 million, a minimal cost when compared to the sector’s deficit that can reach $2.5 billion when oil prices are at $140,” he says.

Average electricity tariffs in the MENA region, 2006

Source: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Association

Hayek disagrees. 

“The value of actual electricity theft is much greater than figures provided, because it is calculated based on the official subsidized rate,” he says. The expert underscores that theft occurs all over Lebanon, mostly in areas such as the south, the southern suburbs and the north. He adds that massive electricity theft is not necessarily committed by private individuals, but by large companies, with greater electrical needs and which tend to bribe governmental employees. 

In order to supplement yearly electricity losses, Tabourian recently suggested purchasing large generators that can be ordered within a period of one year and each have a capacity of 17 to 80 megawatts. 

“We are currently trying to negotiate their purchase from the French government, but one has to keep in mind that it would only be a temporary solution. A second solution would be in equipping turbines with special kits [that would] beef up their potential by 180 megawatts in the summer time, a season during which the heat negatively affects the capacity of the turbines,” Tabourian says. 

“These solutions are temporary, but more importantly the government needs to develop long-term solutions relying on a diversification of fuel needs, something that will reduce Lebanon’s exposure to the volatility of fuel prices and its dependence on any oil producing country in particular,” Tabourian says.  

This approach seems to meet the approval of Hayek. So why the holdup? According to Tabourian, who submitted a report on the electricity sector to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora a few months ago, the study was never discussed by the Council of Ministers. But the electricity expert adds that a similar study had been submitted by the previous government, one that was later abandoned by Tabourian.  

Another point of contention between the two factions concerns the sector’s privatization. Tabourian advocates the building of new plants on the basis of a private-public partnership, an agreement between government and the private sector that would marry public policy with the managerial skills of the private sector. 

“Rather than completely transferring public assets to the private sector, as with privatization, the government will still finance the cost of the plants. This would allow the state to rein in electricity prices, which would be extremely high if the private sector had to assume the costs of building the actual power plants,” says Tabourian.

Hayek rejects this idea. 

“I doubt any company would be willing to take over a sector plagued by such a huge deficit,” he says.  “We are proposing instead to privatize certain services such as billing and collection, as well as the installation of digital meters.”

He adds that the sector should be open to private companies which would be allowed to sell electricity to complement the power supplied by the state. 

September 26, 2009 0 comments
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Feature

Hand on the pump

by Executive Staff September 26, 2009
written by Executive Staff

With a quarter of the world’s oil reserves, Saudi Arabia is the most influential member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and able to put an extra two million barrels of oil on the international markets within days. But the kingdom is notoriously opaque about its oil policy and reserves, with decisions made at the highest level by the ruling House of Saud. The royal house is composed of a Saudi elite which even the White House appears to have minimal influence over, and one that is determined to ensure its survival in the face of growing domestic concerns and a changing geopolitical environment.

Track record

Since the oil company Saudi Aramco was fully nationalized in 1980, the kingdom’s oil policy has been relatively clear and consistent. Based on a low price band (between $18-$25 per barrel), Saudi Arabia aimed to maintain price stability through excess spare capacity, thereby avoiding price spikes and ensuring the long-term profitability of its large reserves. But since 1999, the kingdom’s oil policy changed as internal problems began to mount: rising unemployment, a population that has grown 300 percent in 30 years, and an oil-dependent economy in serious need of diversification.

To boost revenues, Riyadh, in conjunction with OPEC, reined in production to lower oil inventories. In a period of surging global demand driven by the emerging Asian economies, oil prices steadily rose and were pushed higher by speculation. The kingdom eventually accumulated some $500 billion in foreign reserves and was able to dismiss the Bush administration’s calls for heightened oil production. But the global financial crisis in late 2008 caused oil prices and demand to drop. Pressure was again put on Riyadh, this time to keep prices low to stimulate economic recovery.

“Why did the Saudis let the price of oil go up and up, when they of all people would realize there would be a correction?” said Simon Henderson, director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “As the swing producer it would be left to Saudi leadership to get OPEC into line afterwards which… they have managed to do to everyone’s surprise.”

In June, Saudi Aramco increased output to 12 million barrels per day (bpd) after three new projects came online at the Nuayyim, Khurais and Shaybah fields. With an estimated 4.5 million bpd in spare capacity, Saudi Arabia’s OPEC output is 8 million bpd.

The financial crisis has presented Saudi Arabia with major challenges. High oil prices are needed to fund economic diversification and infrastructure projects, while at the same time the country has a vested interest in the recovery of the global financial system. Equally, Saudi Arabia is aware of the growing importance placed on alternative energies, which could, in the long run, lessen the West’s dependence on the kingdom, changing a relationship that since 1945 has been based on security in exchange for oil.

Looking east

Given that the Saudis effectively subsidize oil sales to the US through discounted transportation costs, the Asian markets — especially India and China — are becoming increasingly attractive given their geographic proximity and willingness to pay international market prices.

“Surging demand from Asia will almost certainly divert supplies east and unless Saudi supply keeps growing, it could mean a big reduction to the US, unless we start paying a security premium, which I suspect China would top,” said Matthew Simmons, chairman of energy consultancy Simmons & Company in the US.

Saudi Arabia has worked particularly hard to foster warm relations with China, investing in refineries and the Chinese economy.

“China is a secure market for Saudi Arabia, and will be in the future, so it is very clear it’s not just exporting crude, but upstream and downstream activities are also being explored,” said Othman Cole, research associate at Cambridge University’s Centre for Energy Studies in Britain.

This shift eastwards has been observed by OPEC.

“The last full revision of the OPEC masterplan in 2003 to 2004, estimated that by 2050, they didn’t expect any Gulf OPEC member to be selling oil to the US,” said Kent Moors, an energy policy expert at Duquesne University in the US. “The entire Gulf market has been moving east for sometime.”

The current and long term significance of the Asian markets was made clear by Saudi King Abdullah’s first overseas visit since ascending the throne in 2005. It was to Beijing, notably not to Washington. Next on the monarch’s itinerary was New Delhi.

From Riyadh to Washington

“Asia is a growing market for Saudi, and how that re-balance will effect the US influence and relationship is still unclear,” said Cole.

Any change in bilateral relations has not yet been reflected in current US foreign policy towards Riyadh, demonstrated during President Barrack Obama’s visit in June.

“Relations are good between King Abdullah and Obama, that was the surprising thing, for Obama to have bonded with an Arab potentate with global views very different from European and US perspectives,” said Henderson. “Logically, Obama should have said, for God’s sake, keep oil prices down, but he gave them a pass, which I thought was a mistake.”

What is not clear is if the US and Saudi Arabia might actually be seeing eye-to-eye on the current OPEC price band of $75-$80 per barrel. Simmons said the West is tacitly supportive of higher oil prices. “Our government leaders now seem to understand that higher prices open all sorts of doors, such as creating alternate energy sources and helping create economic prosperity in the Middle East,” he said.

Saudi oil policy is decided by “an inner circle of elite decision-makers centered around the king and key princes,” says Daryl Champion, author of “The Paradoxical Kingdom: Saudi Arabia and the Momentum of Reform.”

Two camps are emerging within this elite with regard to oil reserves and what that could mean for oil prices, according to Simmons.

Aramco and petroleum ministry officials tend to think that none of Saudi’s oil fields will have problems and will last for many more decades. The other camp worries the same fields are at risk of being overproduced. “They favor a new era of field-by-field production flow transparency,” Simmons said. “If they embraced transparency, I suspect the results would send oil prices far higher, benefiting the Kingdom.”

While Petroleum Minister Ali al- Naimi represents the oil technocrats, he also addresses the interests of the king and the estimated 7,000 to 25,000 members of the House of Saud. How a change in leadership will impact policy when King Abdullah, aged 84, passes away is not evident. With Crown Prince Sultan in declining health, Interior Minister Prince Naif, 74, is considered next in line for the throne after his recent appointment to second deputy prime minister.

Currently, Riyadh appears to be hedging its bets against changes in the energy market. Naimi acknowledged the need for nuclear power and renewable energy at a Houston summit in February, adding that Saudi Arabia hopes to export the same British Thermal Unit (BTU) equivalent in electricity from solar power as present crude oil levels in the future. The kingdom is also investing in oil development and production beyond its borders.

“Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have put aside between $12 billion and $15 billion for controlling future energy from the Caspian region,” said Moors, “moving from the traditional approach of controlling the process, facilities and refineries, to being gate keepers to access and future projects. There has also been an increase of Saudi money to control tanker production facilities.”

September 26, 2009 0 comments
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Feature

Surgery and sunshine

by Executive Staff September 26, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Lebanon has long been known as the Switzerland of the Middle East for its banking sector. These days, the Levantine country is claiming another proud nickname.

“Lebanon now has the reputation as being the Brazil of the Middle East,” says Lebanese plastic surgeon Dr. Roger Khoury.

When Khoury founded the Beirut Beauty Clinic 12 years ago, he recalls that less than one percent of his patients came from abroad, compared with 15 percent today.

Other doctors in Lebanon report a similar rise in patients coming from outside the country. They attribute this to high quality healthcare and hospitals, relatively low prices, a liberal health sector free from government oversight, and of course the attraction of Lebanon as a travel destination.

Most of Lebanon’s medical tourists are Lebanese expatriates, with the most popular procedure being rhinoplasty, more commonly known as a ‘nose job’. There are also a growing number of patients who come from the Gulf for the healthcare, and then often stay on for the sun, sea and sand.

“When you come from abroad, you get the complete package — the reception at the airport, the hotel, the clinic and people to help during the recovery period. And everyone loves to visit Beirut,” says Khoury.

Depending on the procedure, a vacation along with medical treatment in Lebanon can cost less than the medical bill alone in a Western country. For example, rhinoplasty in New York City can cost $20,000, while the same procedure in Lebanon typically costs $3,000.

This fact has not been lost on Lebanon’s tourism sector and travel industry — in the Ministry of Tourism’s 2009 Yellow Pages, approximately a quarter of the book includes contact details for Lebanese medical professionals.

Dr. Marina Hajj, medical director at the American University of Beirut Medical Center says, “We have contact with all the carriers and we coordinate with them. It’s booming.”

Middle East Airlines, Lebanon’s national carrier, has a link on its web site about the benefits of medical tourism. Here it boasts that, “health tourism has endless opportunities and benefits, and it ties extremely well into Lebanon’s reputation as a rejuvenating place and a healthy state.”

Lebanon’s place as a healthcare destination dates back more than a hundred years, back when AUB’s hospital was known throughout the Middle East for its medical treatments and its faculty of medicine. The hospital gained acclaim in the mid-20th century for being the first in the region to perform a kidney transplant, as well as open heart surgery. Lebanon’s place as a regional healthcare destination continued until 1975, when the country’s 15-year civil war began. Now, Lebanon has slowly regained its place on the medical tourism map.

“After the war, it took time for us and other institutions to come back,” notes Hajj. “In the late 1990s, we again became a magnet in the region. When medical tourism here restarted, we saw some of the same patients that had been treated before 1975.”

The appeal of a Lebanese scalpel

Whether they are returning patients or longtime Lebanese doctors, many people seem to believe that there is an intrinsic understanding doctors here have with their Arab patients that sets them apart from their colleagues outside the region, be it because of their education or their bedside manners.

Nasri Holloway, a 56-year-old British-born businessman of Lebanese origin, splits his time between Lebanon and his residence in Sierra Leone. But he always returns to Lebanon for medical treatment, even though he has spent most of his life abroad. This summer, he came to the AUB hospital to get a cancerous kidney removed.

Holloway doesn’t think twice about returning to his native country for medical treatment.

“I think the doctors are better here,” he says. “In Europe, doctors tend to be much more automated. I don’t know if they’re not allowed to take risks for legal reasons. They work very much by the book. But the book isn’t always the same for two people.”

Khoury also believes that many Arab patients from abroad choose Lebanon because they feel more comfortable with doctors of the same cultural background.

He recalls one patient who requested the he make an incision for a breast augmentation on the side of her breast right below the armpit. Khoury reminded her that “we’re Mediterranean people, and we like to raise our arms when we dance.” He was able to convince her to get the incisions closer to the center of her breasts.

For other patients, an important aspect of getting a medical procedure done in Lebanon is the privacy of being treated abroad.

Noor, a Kuwaiti who wished not to give her real name, underwent breast augmentation surgery at the Beirut Beauty Clinic while on vacation in Lebanon this summer. For her, the most important issue was privacy.

“If it was in a hospital, I wouldn’t have done it,” she says. “But at the clinic, I had my own room. I’m a veiled woman from Kuwait, so I wanted my privacy.”

Ahmad Zaatari, medical director at Hamoud Hospital in Sidon, agrees that privacy is often a reason for patients getting procedures done away from home — especially when it comes to cosmetic treatment. Zaatari, a plastic surgeon, says, “Sometimes people will request to be treated on a certain floor, worried that someone they know who works at the hospital will see them.”

But as plastic surgery has become less taboo in recent years, so too has the desire for patient secrecy. Zaatari points out that it’s not uncommon to see people walking down the streets of Beirut with nose bandages during their recovery period following rhinoplasty.

“It’s become a status symbol,” he says, referring to post-plastic surgery bandages.

Free-wheeling medicine

From what Zaatari can see, a key reason many people are increasingly choosing to be treated in Lebanon — aside from doctors’ well-known medical expertise and competitive prices — is the country’s relatively liberal medical laws and an absence of a thick government bureaucracy.

For example, with a surplus of doctors, patients report a much shorter waiting period than at most hospitals abroad.

A notable example is kidney transplants. Along with India and Egypt, Lebanon has some of the most liberal laws for kidney transplants in the world. Many of the kidney transplant patients at Hamoud Hospital, one of the largest centers for such operations in Lebanon, come from Syria and Jordan.

Zaatari explains, “In most of the world, the kidney donor has to be related to the patient. Otherwise, people go on a waiting list to receive a kidney from a brain-dead patient. In Lebanon, kidney donors and recipients have to be of the same nationality.”

Still, Zaatari emphasizes that Lebanon’s rules on kidney transplants are not nearly as lax as those in India, and that there are regulations in place to prevent a black market in kidney trade.

Women’s health

Another important part of Lebanon’s liberal medical sector is that of women’s health. Of all the countries in the Middle East, Lebanon has the easiest access to abortion, emergency contraception and birth control. Like many Western countries, birth control and emergency contraception can be bought at pharmacies without a prescription.

Many women also seek gynecological surgical treatment in Lebanon, including hymoplasty, which replaces the barrier in the vagina so women can “regain” their virginity, so as to ensure bleeding on the wedding night.

“I think if Lebanon is coming back as a major tourist destination for Arabs, people say, ‘Let’s get medical services while we’re here,’” says Beirut-based gynecologist Faysal Elkak. “It’s not like anyone’s going to say, ‘I went to Lebanon to get my hymen repaired.’”

Another common request from gynecologists is the “virginity test,” an exam to determine if a woman’s hymen is in place. Elkak refuses to do such tests because, he says, “I respect women’s rights.” Instead, he hopes people will become more educated about women’s health, and learn that the absence or presence of a hymen is not always an indication of sexual activity.

Knowing that much of Lebanon’s medical tourism has to do with cosmetic procedures for women, Elkak says he hopes that the country’s increasing medical tourism market will not mean the “commoditization of healthcare in Lebanon.” He hopes Arab women won’t be pressured by society to undergo surgeries they would not have wanted otherwise — creating a demand for the appearance of Haifa Wehbe, for example. The large-breasted, pouty-lipped Lebanese pop star openly boasts of having undergone more than a dozen cosmetic procedures.

While the Ministry of Tourism is glad to promote its country’s health services, they are well aware of the responsibility of the sector.

“We have to be careful when talking about medical tourism,” says the ministry’s Director General Nada Sardouk Ghandour. “We don’t want to promote it as a product, [or] a culture. It can’t be too commercial, because it’s something delicate and fragile. If someone needs to see a doctor or wants to have plastic surgery, our main concern is the patient’s privacy.”

As for the need to organize Lebanon’s ever-growing medical tourism industry, Ghandour says she hopes the Lebanese government, including the tourism ministry, can work with foreign governments to facilitate their visa and medical requirements.

At the moment, such steps would seem premature, as most of the country’s medical tourists are Lebanese expatriates.

“Hopefully one day there will be real medical tourism — people who come here for healthcare who have nothing to do with Lebanon,” Zaatari says.

September 26, 2009 0 comments
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Feature

The Arab boycott of Israel

by Executive Staff September 26, 2009
written by Executive Staff

The Arab League boycott of Israel began in 1951 with the goal of supporting the Palestinians by prohibiting trade and economic relations with the Jewish state, and to penalize countries and companies that do business with Israel.

Although the boycott was enforced for several decades, it has unraveled in recent years due in part to the normalization of relations between Israel, Jordan and Egypt, and the establishment of trade offices in Morocco and Qatar (which were closed during the Gaza conflict of January 2009). The realities of globalization and international trade, and the inability of Arab countries to produce some products like microprocessors and military equipment, have also weakened the Arabs only economic weapon against Israel. As a result, Arab markets are penetrated daily by Israeli products and investments in a variety of legal and illegal ways.

“Obviously we are suffering from the leaking of Israeli products to the Arab world,” said Haisam Bawab, head of Lebanon’s Israeli boycott office at the Ministry of Economics and Trade. “We know it happens and this is why we are trying to increase the supervision [of] such [products].”

How much is unsure

The estimated amount of direct illegal trade in products between Israel and its Arab neighbors is uncertain and varies. Forbes magazine put the figure at $500 million in 1984, equal to $1.3 billion in today’s dollars. In 2004, the Manufacturers Association of Israel estimated Israeli exports to Arab nations and entities amounted to around $192 million. A year later, Infoprod, an Israeli research firm that specializes in regional trade, estimated that the figure amounted to $400 million, around two and a half times Israel’s trade with its official Arab trading partners that year.

Speaking to an American journalist in New York, Doron Peskin, head of research at Infoprod, estimated that total Arab-Israeli trade averaged $780 million per year in 2007 and 2008, including trade with Jordan and Egypt.

Ibrahim Saif, resident scholar and specialist on the political economy of the Middle East at the Carnegie Middle East Center said direct trade “is not that significant.” He estimates this kind of trade amounts to under $100 million a year.

No matter what the amount of illicit trade, not to mention investment from Israel to the Arab world, the fact is that this type of trade does exist and is funneled to the Arab world through a variety of methods. The main passageway for Israeli products to enter Arab markets is through front companies established in countries that have bilateral relations with both Arab nations and Israel, or through Jordan and Egypt which have signed peace deals with Israel. Israeli products are shipped to third parties in these countries, who then remove any markings which would identify the products as being made in Israel and forward the products onto Arab markets.

According to Bawab, the head of the Israeli boycott office, companies set up in Jordan, Egypt, Cyprus and even China are the main culprits of this sort of practice.

“Many Israeli companies have offices abroad and use them for trade with the Arab world,” said Peskin. “I remember, from earlier this year, the big news in Yemen [was] that its Liquid Natural Gas company [Yemen LNG] used software developed by an Israeli firm based in Tel Aviv. This company used its Hong Kong office for trade with Yemen and other Gulf countries.”

Many experts have also identified Turkey as another routing point for Israeli products entering Arab markets.

In order to curb this type of activity, Arab countries rely on “certificate of origin” documents presented to customs officials at trading ports. But, like any official document, these can be fabricated. The fact that international product sourcing regulations vary from country to country makes it difficult to identify component parts of finished products.

“In agricultural produce, for instance, Israel exports to Jordan and there the documents are changed and the products transported to the Gulf markets as Jordanian produce,” said Peskin. “What is the effect of the Arab boycott in this case?”

Last year, the Arabic language newspaper Al Quds Al Arabi reported that it had discovered Israeli investors using Palestinian agents in the occupied West Bank to repackage Israeli potatoes with false certificates of origin in order to sell them as Palestinian produce to Qatar via Jordan. The paper also claimed that a Palestinian investor, who the paper did not name but identified as a minister in a previous government, was offered 25 percent of the profits to re-export Israeli products as Palestinian to the Arab world.

Even with the increased costs of using third parties, the allure of penetrating Arab markets seems natural given the types of products Israel excels at manufacturing.

“From irrigation to security systems, Israel is very well suited to working in the Arab world,” said Hady Amr, director of the Brookings Doha Center, a regional think tank that specializes in socio-economic and geopolitical issues in the Middle East.

Due to the fact that the boycott has substantially weakened over the years, the need for Israel to covertly trade with its Arab neighbors, however, becomes less salient because in many instances Israel can already sell their products in Arab markets.

The levels of boycott

The original text of the Arab League boycott stipulates that member states adhere to a primary boycott (products that originate in Israel), secondary boycott (businesses that operate and manufacture in Israel) and tertiary boycott (a boycott of businesses that have relationships with other businesses trading in Israel). The tertiary boycott has been abandoned — that’s why Pepsi, Coke, Starbucks and other international brands can operate in both Israel and the Arab world — and today only Lebanon and Syria uphold some of the principles of the secondary boycott.

“If you want to impose all the principles of the boycott you wouldn’t have one American or European company in Lebanon or in the Arab countries,” said the Lebanon Boycott Office’s Bawab. “We adhere to the spirit and the principles of the boycott.”

When the secondary boycott is applied, there are still “strategic companies” that each country has the right to exempt if they are seen as necessary to their economies. A premier example is Intel, the global microprocessor manufacturer, who has maintained design and manufacturing plants in Israel since 1974. “All the most important Intel products have a bit of Israel inside,” said Ron Friedman, vice-president and general manager of Intel’s mobile microprocessors group at a press conference in Israel last February.

Intel currently employs more than 5,000 Israelis, and exports from Israel by the company peaked at $2 billion in 2000. Last year the company exported $1.39 billion, down 10 percent from the previous year as a result of the global downturn.

“What we do is we try to convince companies to close their factories in Israel and come to us in the Arab world and we support it,” said Bawab. “But this needs oversight and frankly there is no oversight… from the government[s].”

Many Israeli companies also sell their wares through distributors in the Middle East and simply re-route their products through another office setup in a third country. Orad, an Israeli-based company that manufactures newsroom and broadcasting products, blatantly lists its distributor in Abu Dhabi, Tek Signals, on the company’s website. When Executive called to enquire about the companies products, a Tek Signal’s company representative said: “Orad’s head office is in Israel but another main office is in the United Kingdom.” The representative confirmed that even though the products might be manufactured in Israel “all the shipments come from the UK.” As a result, they said, there wouldn’t be any problem with boycott issues.

Lebanon boycott office head Bawab lamented that there are many instances like this across the region. “There are things we can discover, and when we do we stop them,” Bawab said. “There are some things we cannot discover.”

“The products of Israel’s advanced hi-tech industry are targeting the gulf markets”

In February, the US publication Defense News reported that Abu Dhabi is in talks with a company called ImageSat International, incorporated firm in the Dutch Antilles, to use the company’s EROS B satellite and its high-resolution imagery. According to the article, the emirate already receives images from the satellite’s precursor, EROS A, and both satellites were built by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), Israel’s largest defense firm with a controlling interest in Tel Aviv-based ImageSat.

“Of course, the products of Israel’s advanced hi-tech industry are targeting the Gulf markets,” said Peskin.

Regional mail forwarding services have also come under fire for facilitating the shipment of products through third countries. A 2006 article in the right-wing Israeli newspaper The Jerusalem Post claimed that Aramex, a regional delivery service, was facilitating this type of trade through their mail forwarding service.

 An Aramex customer service representative said that there was “logically no handicap” to mail being forwarded from a third country but said she had never come across Israeli products being shipped in this manner. Asma Zein, Aramex’s country director in Lebanon, later contacted Executive to clarify that the service did not allow for products to be shipped from third countries, citing that it is against US law to change the labeling on packages. “We don’t have time… to change any labels in New York. We don’t even check what is written on the box,” said Zein. “As Aramex we [don’t] serve Israel and [Aramex] doesn’t get [products] from Israel, definitely not.” She added that Aramex intends to get the Israeli publication to retract its statement regarding the company’s shipping practices.

Saudi arabia, which joined the World Trade Organization in 2006, said it “would treat all member states equally”

The lists

In order to track companies that are subject to the boycott, the Arab League runs a list that identifies companies as being Israeli, manufacturing in Israel or having “Zionist funds.” One popular way around this is to list an Israeli company on an international stock exchange or to take control of public companies operating in the Arab world.

“If you are talking about public companies then you don’t know who the owners are. You cannot know,” said Bawab.

“We consider that if a company has 51 percent Israeli ownership of shares or Zionist funds, it is blacklisted”

Trade agreement trouble

One of the biggest blows to the effectiveness of the boycott is the decision by many countries in the region to sign onto international trade agreements. Countries that join the World Trade Organization, for instance, are required to drop barriers to trade, as are those that sign free trade agreements with the US. Saudi Arabia, which joined the World Trade Organization in 2006, said it “would treat all member states equally.”

Even though Israel is a full member of the WTO, Saif explained that the Saudis “don’t have to implement [dropping the boycott] because they don’t have a peace treaty [with Israel].”

Asked whether Saudi Arabia still adheres to the boycott Bawab said they do not. Do they still show up to the meetings? “This question I am asking and I am not finding an answer to. It is something political and I don’t have anything to do with it.”

Saudi Arabia has also spearheaded the Arab Peace Plan in 2002 which offers to lift the Arab League boycott of Israel.

Upon signing a free trade agreement with the US, Bahrain also completely dropped the boycott and no longer attends the bi-annual meetings. Tunis and Qatar even allowed Israeli commercial interest offices to open in their countries, only to close them during second the intifada and the Gaza conflict, respectively.

Defense News reported the Israelis operated an “informal and extremely discreet interest office in Abu Dhabi for several years,” but the publication also reported the two countries “chances of developing more open relations are slim to nil.”

The Palestinian Authority ended the boyott after signing the Oslo accords. Mohamad Bbousalaa, director general of the  Central Boycott Office in Damascus, said that only “14 to 15 states” of the 22 member Arab League have attended the bi-annual meetings “for the past 4 years.”

“We consider that if a company has 51 percent Israeli ownership of shares or Zionist funds, it is blacklisted”

Who cares enough to adhere?

When it comes to figuring out how much each country adheres to the boycott, one of the only ways to ascertain the seriousness of boycott adherence is to look at the correspondence between respective countries’ boycott offices. According to Bawab, each country is supposed to identify potential Israeli companies that apply for trade certificates or patents, as well as boats or planes (which have specific rules that apply to them) that land in the respective country’s ports. Each Arab nation will then cross-check the blacklist with the CBO to see if the company, boat or plane is present on the list and relay that information to all other boycott offices.

“I am not seeing anything [correspondence] from Libya, Morocco, Tunis, Algeria, Iraq [or] the Gulf. I get a few from Syria,” said Bawab.

However, Bbousalaa, disagrees. He said that boycott offices are only required to correspond with the central office, and only if it is a “big issue” does the central office forward the correspondence to other offices. Bbousalaa declined requests to provide a copy of any recent correspondences.

The adherence to the boycott is not binding for the members of the Arab League and enforcement is the onus of each member state.

The effectiveness of the boycott also received a battering from the policies of Israel’s, as well as many Arab states’, allies that do not allow their companies to adhere to it. In 1977, the US Congress and President Jimmy Carter, who today calls Israel an apartheid state, made it illegal for US companies to comply with the Arab League boycott of Israel. US companies are obliged to report any requests by Arab nations to adhere to the boycott of Israel to the US Department of Commerce’s Office of Anti-boycott Compliance. The penalties for a failure to do so range from a fine of up to $50,000 per violation or five times the value of the exports in question (whichever is greater), to imprisonment of up to five years, or both.

“The law, which is exceptionally complicated, is the product of strong US-Israeli relations,” said Farhad Alavi, a senior counsel at the Washington-based law offices of RA Kerr and specialist in international trade law. “The US does not want its residents, as well as US citizens outside the US, and companies… to be used as tools to further the anti-Israeli policies of certain countries.”

What ultimately attracts Israeli companies to Arab markets does not seems to be actual trade in products with Arab nations but the investment potential of the Arab states, even despite the effects of the global downturn. “They [Israel] want to invest and they want to have presence,” said Carnegie’s Saif.

But if an Israeli company is not too ambitious, they can invest in Arab markets as long as they do not acquire a majority share. “We consider that if a company has 51 percent Israeli ownership of shares or Zionist funds, it is blacklisted,” said Bawab. He agreed that anything below was not covered by the boycott.

“The Arab Boycott’s practical outcome today is negligible,” claimed Peskin. “It is mainly effective in countries like Syria, Libya and Lebanon, while I think most of the Israeli exporters are targeting the markets of the oil-rich Gulf states.”

But even in countries where the boycott is applied, like Syria, measures have been adopted that remove some of the trade barriers that had been erected since the early 1950s. For instance in June, Syria scrapped the requirement for first-time patent applicants to submit a declaration of compliance with the boycott of Israel.

Boycott requests received by US companies in fiscal year 2007

Source: US Department of Commerce

Instrument of peace

Now that there is a new push for peace in the region, the boycott is again being highlighted by none other than the proponents of this new peace initiative, as an instrument rather than a weapon.

“What I’d like to see is indicators that they [Arab nations] are willing, if Israel makes tough commitments, to also make some hard choices that will allow for an opening of commerce [and] diplomatic exchanges between Israel and its neighbors,” said US President Barack Obama earlier this year. Last month, more than two-thirds of the US Senate signed a letter, endorsed by the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee, the most powerful pro-Israeli lobbying group in the US, supporting “efforts to encourage Arab states to normalize relations with Israel.

Obama’s administration has also suggested that Arab states allow El Al, Israeli’s national carrier, to use Arab airspace.  Saudi Arabia, one of the US’s strongest allies in the region, has opposed such a plan until the Arab Peace Plan is adopted by Israel.

The concept of dismantling the boycott has also been proposed by Israel’s right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He supports the notion of an “economic peace” as a forbearer to political peace despite the fact that he has been reluctant to make “tough commitments,” like freezing settlements or accepting the concept of the Palestinian right of return.

It’s little wonder why Netanyahu, the former chief marketing officer of the Boston Consulting Group, wants to embrace “economic peace.” According to research conducted by the Strategic Foresight Group, a global research and policy advisory group, Israel would have almost doubled its per capita income ($23,000 to $44,000) from 1991 to 2010 and would not have lost $15 billion in tourism revenue from 2000 to 2006 if there had been a resolution to the conflict.

The onus is on Israel

For now the boycott stays in place, despite its numerous holes, and looks set to remain until there is a resolution to the Arab Israeli conflict, and more specifically, a just solution offered to the Palestinians both inside Palstine and in the region.

“If there is progress on the peace process, this is something that definitely will be dropped,” said Carnegie’s Saif. “It has not taken a front seat but if there is progress [on the peace process], you will see that this point will become very significant.”

For there to be any official changes made regarding the boycott, however, there will most likely need to be movement on the Israeli policy front, as opposed to an Arab decision.

“The easy thing for the Arab world to do will be to stay on the course that it has been on, which is to continue to relax the Arab boycott in practice while supporting it in name as long as certain countries can,” said Amr. “The question really is going to be whether Israel is willing to make the compromises it needs to make.”

September 26, 2009 0 comments
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Banking

Money Matters by BLOMINVEST Bank

by Executive Staff September 26, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Regional stock market indices

Regional currency rates

South Koreans awarded housing development contracts in Libya

Two South Korean contractors, Sungwon Corporation and Amco, won a $1 billion contract to construct housing units in Libya.  Sungwon Co. signed a $996 million deal with Libyan Investment and Development Company to construct 5,000 residential units, while Amco, a Hyundai motor Co. subsidiary, will build 2,000 domiciles and related infrastructure in the city of Qubbah, as part of a $420 million project developed for the Organization for Development of Administrative Centres. In a related development, following its meeting in Alexandria, the Mediterranean union launched a new regional $1.3 billion infrastructure fund with the aim of developing infrastructure across the region.

Kuwait KPI and China Sinopec to build oil plant

Kuwait Petroleum International (KPI) and the Chinese state refiner, Sinopec, announced the relocation of their $9 billion mega refinery and petrochemical project to Donghai Island near Zhanjiang, in China’s Guangdong province. The plant, which is set to be completed by the end of 2013, will have a crude oil refining capacity of 300,000 barrels per day and ethylene production capacity of 1 million tons per year. The proposed project would become one of the largest Sino-foreign joint ventures in China. It is part of Kuwait’s plans to build strong links with China, regarded as a key future market for oil and gas. Furthermore, it is expected to serve as a driving force for the Gulf state to achieve its China-bound crude oil export target of 500,000 bpd by 2015. KPI will supply 100 percent of the crude to be processed at the plant.

Egypt’s 2009 growth between 3.2% and 4.3%

The International Monetary Fund, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and Moody’s Rating Agency Services have published their relevant economic data on Egypt indicating a 2009/10 growth ranging between 3.2 percent and 4.3 percent. The IMF pointed out that the gross domestic product will grow by 4% in 2009/2010, while inflation will decline to below 10 percent in June 2009. Moreover, the IMF said that despite the lower economic growth rates than previous years, Egypt has weathered the impact of the global financial crisis well. The EIU has made an upward revision to their GDP growth forecast to 4.4 percent in 2008/09, and 4 percent in 2009/10 following better than expected economic data. The EIU specified that the Egyptian government has taken several steps to weather the crisis, while the Central Bank of Egypt has made four interest rate cuts so far and is expected to implement further reductions in 2009 and 2010. Moody’s Ratings estimates real GDP growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2009, at 4.3%, and the expected growth for the year is estimated at 3.2 percent to 4 percent, despite the agency’s downgrade from stable to negative in June 2008.

September 26, 2009 0 comments
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