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Levant

Realpolitik in the pipeline

by Executive Staff July 31, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Egypt and Syria need gas to meet burgeoning domestic consumption and to increase their hard currency reserves. Jordan and Lebanon need it to fuel their electricity plants.

Europe also needs more gas, and from new sources. Reliance on Russia for 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas left thousands in the cold early this year when Moscow stopped the flow of gas westwards, after a spat with Ukraine over gas prices.

Both regions are now hedging on two pipeline projects that center around the Eastern Mediterranean, what is being dubbed the “Southern Corridor,” to meet demand.

The lynch pin of this “new Silk Road” is Turkey, the conduit for gas to flow through pipelines from Central Asia and the Middle East to Europe. The $10.6 billion Nabucco pipeline is the centerpiece, drawing gas from the Caspian region — Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan — as well as Georgia and Iraq. From the point where it plugs into Turkey’s pipeline network, the Nabucco pipeline will run 3,300 kilometers to a distribution hub in Baumgarten, Austria, potentially delivering up to 31 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas a year to Europe.

Tying into the Nabucco project is the Euro-Arab Mashreq gas pipeline (EAM). Once completed, the 1,200 km pipeline will transport Egyptian gas through Jordan and Syria to Turkey. Lebanon will also tap into the network, having signed an agreement with Egypt for 600 million cubic meters (MCM) per year, while Iraq will be pivotal in keeping supplies of gas flowing into the network whenever a pipeline comes online.

That, at least, is the plan. Currently, the EAM pipeline is just beyond Homs in western Syria, awaiting a new tender to complete the final leg to Turkey, while Nabucco’s future remains uncertain. As always with such grandiose plans that span borders, jurisdictions and the interests of multiple energy players, the pipelines’ futures are hinged on political relations, finances and, crucially, gas supplies.

“Neither the Mashreq pipeline or the Nabucco pipeline are in a position to be realized, and neither has received enough financial backing,” said Graham Coop, general counsel at the Energy Charter Secretariat in Brussels.

The path of the Euro-Arab Mashreq gas pipeline

Source: Euro-Arab Mashreq Gas Co-operation Centre

Pipe dreams

Plans to develop the Southern Corridor began in 2002, after talks between Austrian energy company OMV, Turkey’s BOTAS, Hungary’s MOL and Romania’s TRANSGAZ. After the initial meeting, board members spent a night at the opera listening to Verdi’s Nabucco.

While the opera provided the name for the project, the signatories must be hoping that the pipeline won’t reflect the opera’s tragic plot, which recounts the plight and subsequent expulsion of the Jews under King Nebuchadnezzar. Yet the Nabucco project has faced numerous obstacles from the onset, with costs doubling and countries using the proposed pipeline for political leverage.

Last year, Georgia’s ill-advised move into Ossetia brought on the wrath of Russia. But with Georgia to be linked into Nabucco, the conflict provoked concerns over regional security risks and further shook the already fragile financial confidence in the project. The United States also threw a wrench in the works when it pressured the European Union to focus on Central Asia as a gas supplier for Nabucco rather than Iran due to the US-Iran standoff over Tehran’s nuclear aspirations.

Then this January, the country where half the pipeline is located, Turkey, said it may withdraw from the project if the country’s EU accession remains blocked. Coming at the same time as the Kiev-Moscow spat and the EU desperate to wean itself off Russian gas, Prime Minister Recep Erdogan’s comments did not go down well in Brussels.

Such incidents did, however, spark renewed interest in the project after a year of deadlock, and by the end of January the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said they were prepared to bankroll the pipeline. By May, Turkey caved in, dropping its demands for a “transit tax” and 15 percent of the gas at discount prices at a summit in Prague. The final agreement between the EU, six gas companies and Turkey is expected to be signed in early July.

But while the agreement is expected to finally see pipes being laid, question marks still hang over the project. Gas rich Turkmenistan — which exports 68 BCM of gas per year — attended the Prague summit but declined to comment, seemingly to play the Russians against the Europeans. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has stated that it does not have enough gas to be the sole provider for Nabucco, while Russia has offered to buy all Azeri gas at market prices — an offer apparently still on the table.

Iran wants to build a ‘Persian pipeline’ to connect to Nabucco, but the EU has not figured Iran into its plans. Even if Tehran did get the green light from the EU, Iran lacks the infrastructure to export gas, last year importing 6.1 BCM from Turkmenistan.

Further adding to Nabucco being a literal ‘pipe dream’ is Moscow’s attempts to dominate all supply routes to the west by pressuring Central Asian states to side with the Kremlin. Additionally, there is a joint project between Russia’s Gazprom and Italy’s Eni, inked in 2007, to develop a rival pipeline to Nabucco. Called South Stream, gas would be piped from Russia via Bulgaria to Italy and Austria.

Adding insult to injury, Gazprom in May urged the EU to embrace South Stream and warned that if Europe does not want Russian gas, Gazprom will turn to the energy hungry Asian markets instead. Bulgaria however has backed both pipelines, saying the projects are necessary to meet European demand. And while the Europeans  seem wary of Russia, some analysts think such concerns are unjustified, with imports of Russian gas having halved from the 80 percent they were in 1980s.

Syria’s estimated gas supply and demand

Source: EAMGCC

The success of the E.A.M pipeline hinges on Egypt being able to ramp up gas output to meet demand

Is there enough gas?

It is not just Europe that is keen to see Nabucco get underway. The finalization of the Nabucco pipeline would have added value for the Levant. With Nabucco in place, gas from the Euro Arab Mashreq pipeline could feed into the Nabucco network, and vice versa. “The link up would have added value for both projects,” said Coop.

The EAM is not dependent on Nabucco to start pumping into Turkey, as once the final stage is complete, the pipeline will connect to the current Turkish grid. But down the line as demand spikes and the supply gap widens, the Levant will need more gas.

“Nabucco is not a must have, at least initially,” said Richard Kupisz, team leader of the Euro-Arab Mashreq Gas Co-operation Centre (EAMGCC) in Damascus.

For Syria and Jordan, being linked to Nabucco would have added value sooner rather than later.

The importance of the extra gas flowing into Turkey, and from there south, is that Egypt may be unable to provide adequate supplies of gas to the Levant through the EAM pipeline.

“There is enough gas [for Egypt] to meet current commitments, but for the major projects, these need to be underpinned by further discoveries,” said Craig McMahon, a North Africa analyst at energy consultants Wood Mackenzie.

Nabucco could also be a lifeline for Syria if there are potential spats with Amman or Cairo, either of which could easily stop the flow of gas. After all, Jordan and Syria have had their falling outs, at one point leaving the completion of a tiny 200 meters section of the pipeline in limbo until an unrelated political issue was resolved.

Furthermore, Jordan’s demand is spiking, and there is the very real possibility that by the time the EAM pipeline reaches Syria there will be insufficient supplies to meet the country’s needs. At present, Egypt exports 2.5 million cubic meters per day (MCM/D) through the EAM, with 2 million MCM/D to Jordan and 0.5 MCM/D to Syria.

“Officially this should be increased to 6 MCM/D and afterwards to 9 MCM/D, but nobody knows [if this will happen],” said Kupisz.

While Syria produces 21 to 22 MCM/D of gas, some 4 to 5 MCM/D is used for gas injection into fields or as burn off, leaving around 16 MCM/D for electricity generation and industrial use. At present this is sufficient, but with power plants to come online in the next few years and electricity demand growing by 10 percent per year, Syria will need to offset the supply gap (see chart). Syria could therefore easily consume more than it receives from Egypt.

“Syria can consume 3 MCM/D, but Egypt is not exporting more,” said Ziad Ayoub Arbahe, an energy consultant in Damascus.

For Turkey and Europe to access gas from EAM, the Egyptian gas Syria uses would have to be topped up with Syrian gas.

“For the pipeline to be viable, Syria would need to export 3 MCM/D to Turkey,” added Arbahe.

The success of the EAM hinges on Egypt being able to ramp up gas output to meet rising domestic demand, other export commitments, and provide to the EAM. It is currently a matter of what Cairo considers more of a priority: using energy as a political tool within the Levant, or exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe according to seasonal demand and for higher prices.

“For Egypt the pipeline is one option, but could equally expand LNG infrastructure, so there are a number of competing actors,” said McMahon.

Cost preferential agreements have been signed between Egypt and Jordan, Syria and Israel. But with Cairo keen to access hard currency, such markets might not be always economically preferential. Adding to this is the geological complexity and depth of Egypt’s gas fields, which seriously raise extraction costs.

“If Egypt has the potential to sell gas through LNG and at international gas prices, why not do it?” said McMahon.

Jordan’s gas network structure

Source: IPA Energy Economics

Untapped supplies

While the success of the EAM is in doubt, certain developments could secure gas volumes, namely ramped up production from Egypt’s gas fields, and if the countries involved become full members of the Energy Charter Secretariat. The Energy Charter administers the treaty ratified by all 27 EU states, Russia, Central Asian states and Turkey. The charter treaty promotes four main areas: trade on World Trade Organization principles, freedom of transit, energy efficiency and investment protection. If countries violate the treaty, sanctions can be imposed. Asked what it would mean if current observers Jordan and Egypt signed up as full members of the Euro-Arab Mashreq pipline, Coop said: “it would certainly add security to the project and for the EU.”

While some analysts question Egypt’s ability to extract enough gas, McMahon is upbeat.

“There is every reason to be optimistic, although we need further exploration success and to see those wells drilled,” he said. “But it is hard to imagine increases from Egypt in the shorter term.”

All may not be lost, however, if Egypt is neither legally required to pump gas via the pipeline nor able to meet demand. Syria could come to the rescue, with an estimated 40 percent of the country not drilled or prospected for gas.

“Potentially we could find huge reserves,” said Arbahe.

The only other options are to transport gas from Qatar and Iraq, or Iran via the Nabucco network.

“If a pipeline comes from Iraq or Qatar, there would be a principle pipeline, and a viable network,” said Arbahe. “But for Iran to join the network, [they] would need to solve political problems and technical issues first.”

Iraq is considered the most viable option, with the Akss field in the west of the country only 50 kilometers from the Syrian network.

“They have spare capacity, and the Akss region is not a big market, so it is logical to go to Syria,” said Kupisz. “A contract has been done for 1.5 MCM/D to be processed in Syria and exported or used here, but it is under a new licensing round in Iraq.”

Longer term, the pipeline could also connect central Iraq to the Euro-Arab Mashreq pipeline, potentially able to provide 30 MCM/D over time.

“International oil companies are looking at it, and attracting great interest, although Iraq’s infrastructure is not developed,” said Naeem Danhash, project director of the EAMG CC. “But the medium to long term prospects for Syria to become a gas hub are excellent.”

Whether Syria and Turkey will attain the coveted positions of regional gas hubs is still up in the air, given the questionable viability of either the Euro-Arab Mashreq pipeline or Nabucco.

McMahon, however, has his own thoughts: “The Iraqi supply could ultimately be the answer.”

“The medium to long term prospects for Syria to become a gas hub are excellent”

July 31, 2009 0 comments
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Lebanon

News in Brief

by Executive Staff July 31, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Telecoms: Broadband please

Lebanon has long been plagued by archaic Internet speeds. But that may change by the end of the year. At a recent regional telecom conference held in Beirut, Samer Salameh, chairman and chief executive officer of Alfa, managed by Orascom Telecom, announced that his company would introduce mobile broadband services to the Lebanese market by the end of this year.

If implemented, Lebanon’s mobile users will have the ability to download various types of media onto their mobile devices at speeds dozens of times faster than the current fixed service maximum. Since Lebanon’s telecommunications industry still falls under government control, the state will foot the implementation bill. The new service will compliment the recent expansion undertaken by Lebanon’s two mobile operators subsequent to renewing their management contracts with the Lebanese government. The move by the government will also allow the mobile industry to leapfrog the country’s fixed telecommunications services.

“It’s great,” says Salam Yamout, member of the board at the Lebanese Broadband Stakeholders Group. “I hope it is not a public relations stunt.”

Alfa declined to comment on the issue.

It wouldn’t be the first time mobile networks have bypassed the fixed service, said Riad Bahsoun, telecom expert at the International Telecommunications Union.

“In Lebanon, the priority and the focus has always been on mobile services rather than the fixed services,” he said.

To use the new technology, however, customers will have to beef up their mobile devices.

“Service availability depends… on the availability of handsets and data cards on a mass scale,” says Patrick Eid, board member and head of the market and competition unit at Lebanon’s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority. “Unless end users’ handsets and terminals are abundantly available at affordable prices, there will be no true mass market and true choice for consumers.”

Bahsoun, however, is confident that proposed pricing models for the new service will penetrate the market.

“Prices will be high in the beginning but… will start to drop quite immediately,” he said. The news is encouraging but nothing is assured as the formation of a new cabinet and selection of a telecommunications minister may further slow the process.

Electricity: Shorting out

With the summer months approaching, Lebanon will need more power. According to figures issued by the country’s Ministry of Energy and Water earlier this year, the demand for constant power generation peaks at around 2,200 megawatts of electricity. At present however, the country only produces around 1,500 megawatts, resulting in widespread power cuts.

But there has been some respite lately. The Ksara relay station in the west of the country, which can handle up to 400 megawatts, has recently come online. The station is connected to the ‘ring of eight’ power grid, which connects a total of eight countries in the region to the same power grid and can potentially supply Lebanon all the electricity it needs.

But the reality is not that simple.

“Now that the station has been completed, they have to agree on the price and the source [of the energy],” says Chafic Abisaid, president of the Lebanese Solar Energy Society.

The electricity provided to Lebanon will come from Egypt and royalties will have to be paid to both Jordan and Syria, according to Abisaid. On May 29, the Syrian Arab News Agency reported that power started to flow to Lebanon through Syria via the ring of eight, but there have been reports that the stream of power has been intermittent.

The Lebanese government currently spends up to $1 billion per year on subsidies to its electricity sector and experts estimate that the country will need a further $2 billion of investment to meet the country’s energy demand by 2015.

Even though the power station at Ksara can handle up to 400 megawatts, it is expected to supply only around 300 megawatts, according to Abisaid.

To import more power, Lebanon would need to build another power station, which is currently unlikely for Lebanon’s cash-strapped government. The increased demand for power in the summer months makes it likely the Lebanese will be left without air conditioning for several hours per day, despite the increased capacity.

July 31, 2009 0 comments
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Financial Indicators

Regional equity markets

by Executive Staff July 27, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Beirut SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 1,629.74  Current Year Low: 705.56

The Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) index started the month of June with both eyes on the parliamentary elections. Following the success of the March 14 coalition, the market was let loose, rising 21.66% through June 21 to reach 1,007.34 points. Trading was dominated by Solidere A shares which rose 29.92% and Solidere B shares at 27.79%, while Bank Audi and BLOM Bank also recorded strong gains of 15.49% and 14.96%, respectively. However, market activity slowed during the third week as markets awaited cues from political factions about the formation of a new cabinet. Holcim Liban and Byblos Bank were the only two listed companies to decline in value, falling 4.81% and 4.12%, respectively. In corporate news, Solidere announced an 18% increase in its 2008 net profits and provided a bright view of the upcoming few months. Still, as foreign investors continue to diversify, the steady decline in the company’s shares on foreign exchanges appears to have contributed to the muted domestic investor response to the company’s strong earnings.

Amman SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 4,820.24  Current Year Low: 2,550.70

The Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) lost 1.38% to reach 2,825.18 points, suffering from the decline in all market sectors, especially industry and banking, which were down 4.35% and 3.66% for the month through June 21. The banking sector took a hit from profit-takers, while mining companies suffered from pessimistic news by a major European potash producer concerning the outlook for the fertilizer industry. The highest return stocks were Al Kafaa Financial Investment and Trading (60%), Awtad for Financial and Real Estate Investments (55.66%), and Winter Valley Tourism Investment (39.47%). The worst performing stocks were led by Bin Dar for Trade and Investment (-35.78%), General Investment Company (-29.83%), and International Brokerage and Financial Markets (-23.85%). On a macroeconomic level, the government reported growth of 3.2% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2009 and expects the full-year number to reach 3.5% to 4%. Net foreign investments dropped 45% during the first five months of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008, and the general industrial production index fell 4.5% year-over-year in the first four months of 2009.

Abu Dhabi SM  (one month)

Current Year High: 5,096.50  Current Year Low: 2,136.64

Profit-taking took its toll on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX), but to a lesser extent than other GCC markets, as the general index returned 2.68% through June 21 to reach 2751.28 points. The banking and finance sector was behind part of the sell-off in the middle of June as investors grew wary of possible undisclosed losses. However, banking stocks quickly recovered as sentiment shifted towards increased confidence in the government’s ability to support the economy. The consumer sector drove the market, leaping 10.98%, followed by banking stocks which rose 6.56%. Energy (-8.49%), industrial (-4.4%), and real estate (-2.1%) were the worst performing sectors after leading the market surge in May. Oman and Emirates Investment Holding led the market with a 46.55% gain, ahead of Abu Dhabi Aviation (27.84%) and Abu Dhabi National Hotels (25%). Several banking stocks also occupied the top spots, including The National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah (20%), United National Bank (19.76%) and Bank of Sharjah (16.67%).

Dubai FM  (one month)

Current Year High: 5,540.17  Current Year Low: 1,433.14

Despite significant profit-taking, the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) index managed to record a 3.48% gain and closed at 1,943.36 points on June 21. Emaar Properties first dominated the news at the DFM after Saudi Kingdom Holding announced that the Dubai-based real estate giant was in charge of the $27 billion development and supervision contract to build Jeddah Kingdom City. Emaar later clarified that its role in the project remains conditional and would not include any capital investments, pushing the market down as its shares lost 5%, after rising more than 7% during the previous day. Shuaa Capital’s dispute with Dubai Banking Group over the conversion of mandatory convertible bonds also added to volatile market performance, with Shuaa ranking last in stock return and losing 23.33% during the review period. Utilities, up over 40% by June 14 before profit-taking, were the best performing sector on the DFM, adding 16.46% in less than one month, while the materials (-5%) and telecom (-2.88%) shed the most value. Dar Al Takaful led the market in gains, rising 46.88%.

Kuwait SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 15,654.80            Current Year Low: 6,391.50

The rally in Kuwait continued into the first week of June, but the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) index flattened out to end the review period up 0.97%. Growing confidence over the implementation of the Financial Stability Enhancement Plan following the parliamentary elections added steam to the market rally, especially during the first week. The broad-based rally in Kuwait was driven by non-Kuwaitis and industrial sectors which rose 3.16% and 3.13%, respectively. The only sectors to decline during the month were the parallel market (-1.59%), followed by real estate (-1.42%), and food (-0.63%). However, several real estate stocks were among the top performing companies, including Grand Real Estate Projects Company (+25.37%). The top performing stocks were Hayat Communications (47.06) and Advanced Technology (45.88%), while the worst performers were Arab Insurance Group (-44.26%) and Al Mosawat Holding (-28%). Global Investment House rose 10.7% after announcing bondholders had agreed to extend the maturity of $69.44 million worth of bonds.

Saudi Arabia SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 9,581.34  Current Year Low: 4,130.01

The Saudi Stock Exchange (TASI) index was down 2.57% to 5,741.83 points through June 21, following three weeks of volatile trading. June started with a tough-to-beat three month rally which saw the TASI leap 19.6% in April followed by a 4.42% gain in May. Still, the month started strong on the back of positive economic news from China and the United States, indicating the global recession may be nearing its end. In a move to boost bank lending, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency cut its key reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%. However, profit-taking and a decline in oil prices put pressure on stocks in the latest week, with selling concentrated around market heavy-weight banks and petrochemicals. The insurance sector was the biggest loser, shedding 6.75% of its value, while the hotels and tourism (+5%) and the construction (4.3%) sectors had the highest return during the review period. The best performing stock was newly-listed Weqaya Takaful Insurance and Reinsurance Company (+250%), followed by Abdullah Al Otheim Markets Company (41.98%).

Muscat SM  (one month)

Current Year High: 11.865.35            Current Year Low: 4,223.63

The Muscat Securities Market (MSM) index increased 4.02% to 5,721.61 points through June 21, driven mostly by the industry sector which recorded a leap of 13.8%. The services and insurance sector followed with 6.15%, ahead of banking and investments which lagged with only 1.95%, on continued concern over the banking system’s exposure to Saad Group and Al Gosaibi Group. The market received a boost from the government’s decision to revamp its tax system, ending discriminatory practices of applying higher tax rates to foreign companies. The top performers were Oman Chemical Industries Company which rose 69.36% and Al Jazeera Steel Products Company, up 41.78%. At the bottom of the list was The Financial Corporation Company which lost 30.69% of its value and Al Ahlia Converting Industries, which shed 18.22%. Oman’s economy is expected to slow significantly from 7% to 3% in 2009, as a result of lower hydrocarbon export revenues, but higher corporate tax revenues are seen filling part of the gap created by the lower oil prices.

Bahrain SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 2,868.62  Current Year Low: 1,572.19

The Bahrain Stock Exchange (BSE) index continued its lackluster performance for the third consecutive month. The index started the month with several days of selling, to reach 1,582.12 points, its lowest level since April 28, before recovering to 1628.64 points, up 0.4% for the month through June 21. The hotels and tourism sector led the market, returning +3.19%, followed by services (+1.17%) and banking (+0.91%), while the insurance sector suffered a massive 13.1% drop. Only seven stocks were in the green for the month through June 21, with United Gulf Bank and Nass Corporation maintaining their top two positions from May with gains of 20.84% and 16.82% respectively. During the review period, Investcorp Bank announced the purchase of commercial real estate debt in the US worth $900 million, and the Central Bank of Bahrain placed $750 million in the first sovereign long-term Sukuk offering in 2009.

Doha SM  (one month)

Current Year High: 12,169.16            Current Year Low: 4,230.19

After leading GCC markets in May, the Doha Securities Market (DSM) index, recently named Qatar Exchange, fell 7.2% through June 21 to reach 6,473.07 points, thus reversing the positive direction of the previous three months and falling to the bottom of GCC market performance. Lower oil prices and retreating global equities weighed in on the exchange. Only five stocks were in the green for the month, including Qatar Cinema and Film Distribution Company (7.14%), Qatar Telecom (6.44%), and Gulf Holding Company – Qatar (1.6%). Banks and real estate companies nosedived, and the two best performing stocks in May were the worst performers in June as Barwa Real Estate fell 18.18% and The Commercial Bank of Qatar shed 17.24%. All sectors were down for the month, with banking (-8.1%) leading the decline, followed by services (-7.96%). The government’s decision in May to purchase $4.1 billion in real estate investments to free up capital for lending still provided a minimum level of support for banks.

Tunis SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 3,614.57  Current Year Low: 2,836.64

After hitting some bumps in May, the Tunisia Stock Exchange Index (Tunindex) advanced 5.52% to 3,600.52 points on June 21, posting a modest loss on only one trading day during the month. Tunisia benefited from the abundance of positive news including a recent report by the World Economic Forum that showed Tunisia was the most competitive African country, praising its institutions, transparent policies, and efficient government. Only 9 of 53 stocks declined during the review period, with the worst performers being L’Accumulateur Tunisien ASSAD (-12.85%), Tuninvest – Sicar (-7.22%), Astree Assurances (-7.14%), and Tunisair (-3.1%). On the other hand, the best performing stocks added considerable value, with Société Tunisienne de Verreries gaining 50.13%, followed by Société Immobilière Tuniso-Séoudienne at 43.41%.

Casablanca SE  (one month)

Current Year High: 14,504.58            Current Year Low: 9,405.86

The Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) index had a good showing during the month through June 21, rising 3.53% to reach 11,637.39 points. The CSE posted strong gains during the days following the global sell off in the second week of June, recovering by 4.8% to a 2009 peak of 11,730 points before submitting to profit-taking. Transportation, mining and electrical and electronic equipment remain the best performing sectors in 2009, up 59.77% and 57.81% respectively, while construction and building materials occupy the bottom of the list after losing 8.54%. The best performing stocks were dominated by electronic companies led by Hightech Payment Systems (26.8%), while the lowest returns were recorded by Société Nationale de Sidérurgie (-9.68%) and Delattre Levivier Maroc (-7.24%). Major news during June included the announcement by Renault that it will begin construction on a new manufacturing plant in Morocco in September, generating over 6,000 direct jobs.

Egypt CASE (one month)

Current Year High: 10,147.83            Current Year Low: 3,389.31

The majority of stocks on the Cairo and Alexandria Stock Exchange (CASE) saw a healthy increase in value during the month up to June 21, driving the CASE index up 2.42% to reach 6069.62 points. The travel and leisure sector index rose the most, adding 28.9% to its value, followed by real estate (17.1%). The telecom sector fared the worst, losing 6.8% during the review period, on continued pressure from the dispute between France Telecom and Orascom over the French operator’s interest in buying additional shares in Egypt’s Mobinil. As a result, Orascom Telecom lost 9.47% to rank as the fourth worst performer during our review period, ahead of National Bank for Development (-9.54%), Helwan Cement Company (-11.44%), and Al Watany Bank of Egypt (-12.12%). The best performing stocks, however, posted massive gains, led by National Company for Housing for Professional Syndicates (72.01%), United Arab Shipping Company (62.56%), and El Nasr Clothing and Textile Company (56.98%).

July 27, 2009 0 comments
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Money Matters

Money Matters by BLOMINVEST Bank

by Executive Staff July 27, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Regional stock market indices

Regional currency rates

Qatar Airways orders 24 Airbus jets at a cost of $1.9 billion

Qatar Airways captured the spotlight during the Paris Air Show by placing a $1.9 billion order to buy 24 single-aisle Airbus jets. The aircraft are to be delivered in 2010 and will be equipped with advanced technological aviation systems. It is worth noting that Qatar Airways already operates 19 Airbus single-aisle A320 family aircraft and is one of Airbus’s major customers in the Gulf. Moreover, the fast growing Doha-based carrier will launch a low-cost airline in the region as a strategy to compete with regional budget carriers that are gaining on Qatar Airways’ market share.

Al Futtaim’s $2 billion Moroccan property project

Al Futtaim Capital, the investment arm of Al Futtaim Group, is planning to develop a mega real estate project in Morocco. The project will be Al Futtaim’s third large-scale project, after Dubai Festival City and Cairo Festival City, and will cost in excess of $2 billion. Al Futtaim Capital will acquire 7 million square meters of land in Bouznika on the Moroccan Atlantic coast located half way between the capital city Rabat and Casablanca, the country’s business hub. In addition, the project will have a timeline of 20 years and is the second investment of the $500 million Al Futtaim MENA Real Estate Development Fund launched more than two years ago. Moreover, officials at Al Futtaim capital have high expectations for the Moroccan market as they forecast high demand for middle to low income residential units.

Bahrain’s growth expectedat 3.1% through 2009

According to the latest country report published by the Economic Intelligence Unit, Bahrain’s economy is expected to grow by 3.1 percent in 2009 and to remain at 3 percent in 2010. Affected by the regional economic woes of countries such as United Arab Emirates and Kuwait that have been adversely impacted by the global financial turmoil, Bahrain’s growth has decreased from 8.1 percent in 2007. Oil, which constitutes nearly 80 percent of the country’s export revenue, has fallen in price and thus contributed largely to this decrease, in addition to a slide in private and public consumption. Despite a series of interest rate cuts, consumer price inflation is expected to moderate in 2009-10 because of slower local demand and a drop in the price of commodities. Consequently, inflation is forecast to average 1.8 percent in the coming two years.

July 27, 2009 0 comments
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Special SectionYoung Arab Leaders

Dr. Abdul Malik al-Jaber

by Executive Staff July 27, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Abdul Malik al-Jaber was the first chairman of the YAL Palestine Country Office when it was founded in 2006, a position he held until 2008. Today he is on YAL’s board of directors. Al-Jaber, who is also the chairman of the board of the Paltel Group, spoke to Executive about the challenges of running an entrepreneurial agency for young people in the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

E How did the YAL – Palestine Chapter start, and when?

Young Arab Leaders – Palestine Chapter was established in July 2006. The members decided to form this branch so that Palestine can become one of the major pillars of this initiative and play the role expected from it by Palestinian and Arab young leaders of the future.

Further, I felt that Palestine needed to be more connected with the Arab world and YAL was the ideal platform. We worked with the YAL leadership in Dubai to place the Palestine Chapter on the map in a fast track approach to ensure that the evolution YAL was witnessing would also touch upon the members in Palestine.

We put forward an ambitious plan and created a well-rounded chapter with different membership disciplines and forged ahead with a lot of commitments and activities toward the grander YAL objectives. Our quick pace and innovative ideas from our members helped remove some of the perception issues some people had about Palestine. I am pleased to say that we managed to integrate fully and often lead with some initiatives for the benefit of the whole YAL community.

I was elected by the Chapter members from 2006 to 2009 as the chairman and I very much enjoyed those pioneering days.

E You mention “perception issues” that some people have about Palestine. What do you mean?

The image of Palestine that all of you are familiar with is one of war, destruction, emergency relief and a people in distress. This reality has been brought upon us due to a long and relentless occupation. Our people have endured under this stress, winning Arab and global sympathy, but the image and reality of Palestine is rich with more substance and even more achievements than one expects.

Palestinians have been able to record many successes in education, telecommunications, capital markets and social entrepreneurship. Unfortunately such milestones are not frequently reported in the media, so the “other side of Palestine” is unfairly unknown.

We at the YAL – Palestine Chapter have pledged to create unity among our members and harness their individual successes and track records into the collective image of a different and true “reality” of Palestine; the reality of hope, of building, of investments and of creativity towards nation building.         

E What are some of the particular challenges that ambitious youth in Palestine face?

According to a study conducted on behalf of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) at the start of this year, more than 80 percent of youth in the West Bank and Gaza Strip have stated that they felt depressed and about 60 percent have stated that they felt insecure. These figures are alarming, but they are not unsurprising. Unemployment rates for youth range from 35 percent in the West Bank to 51 percent in the Gaza Strip, which represents not only a huge amount of lost talent, but also reemphasizes our need to work even harder in harnessing our youth by reaching out to them, and offering them job opportunities and the right training for such positions.

In addition to unemployment and loss of direction, youth in Palestine are finding it increasingly difficult to have access to higher education, mostly due to financial hardship. The college drop-out rate is high and as a chapter we have dedicated our resources to help resolve this issue by creating the Palestine Education Fund, which is a loan and scholarship structure for young people, financed and managed by the private sector.

As leaders in the YAL community, we have to assist Palestinian youth by directing their positive energies into productive results where our programs offer not only opportunity to those who apply, but also a chance to learn and enhance their experiences, background and knowledge in their fields of interest.

E In addition to the education fund, can you describe one or two other initiatives that YAL Palestine is undertaking as part of its operations?

In January 2009, YAL launched the “Bring Gaza Back” campaign. This was undertaken in close cooperation with our chapter and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), in order to raise money for local youth in the aftermath of the war in Gaza. Since its launch, the campaign has gained speed and YAL has secured encouraging support from a number of individuals and partners. Media companies have been instrumental in helping us create, air and publish our media campaign at no cost, thus making their contributions extremely valuable.   

The YAL head office team will soon start the allocation of the funds with UNRWA, to begin the psycho-social rehabilitation of the children and the youth of Gaza.

Another important program is the Palestine International Award for Excellence and Creativity, launched in 2007. This annual event and award is intended to encourage Palestinians to adopt excellence and creativity in their professional and private lives, in order to face the challenges of our modern days and the perils affecting our region and our homeland. The award is aimed at transforming despair into hope, in order to restore the belief in “good deeds,” and show that accomplishment and ambition in Palestinian society do not remain unnoticed, but instead are rewarded and, above all, appreciated by their peers and society.

The award is pioneered by Sabih al-Masri, a leading businessman and philanthropist whose vision and fortitude has reinstated hope among many Palestinians both in his homeland and in the distant diaspora. We are hopeful that through this initiative, the philosophy of the award will become a fact of life in our part of the world and will become a source of inspiration for both institutions and individuals to commit to excellence, good governance, and role modeling in their daily work, life and undertakings.

We believe that this award is a celebration of life, hope and good will, contravening the perception of a Palestine of despair, death and destruction.            

E Are there any specific successes that you can point to?

We have sponsored roughly 20 Palestinian students in the various YAL fellowships and programs. Through the Palestine International Award for Excellence and Creativity, we have created a link between Palestine and the greater Arab world, by recognizing Arab leaders in their home countries. The Palestine Chapter was also able to pioneer the relationship between Latin America and the YAL community, through creating a bridge between YAL Dubai and Latin Americans of Palestinian origin.

We have also proactively participated in laying the process for good governance in the chapter and regional elections which took place last year.

July 27, 2009 0 comments
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LuxurySpecial Report

The finest of smokes

by Executive Staff July 27, 2009
written by Executive Staff

“A woman is an occasional pleasure but a cigar is always a smoke,” Groucho Marx once famously said. Many are the comparisons between women and cigars, whereby real cigar aficionados, when forced to choose, never doubt what comes first. If a cigar is indeed like a woman, than she must be Cuban, as the world’s most famous cigars all come hand-rolled from the Caribbean isle.

As is the case with grapes and wine, the taste of first-class cigars largely depends on the soil and climate in which the tobacco has been grown. And it just so happened that God created the perfect growing conditions for tobacco in the hot and humid Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio, which almost single-handedly turned the Cuban cigar into simply the best cigar in the world.

Some 25 percent of the 400 million cigars sold worldwide in 2008 were from Cuba. With the exception of the US market, as Washington has upheld a trade ban on all things Cuban since 1962, Cuba has 80 percent of the global cigar trade in terms of value. Spaniards, French, Germans and Cubans themselves are the world’s most fervent smokers.

Cuba’s cigar industry is a monopoly controlled by Havanna S.A. Its president, Manual Garcia, last February announced that the company saw worldwide sales in 2008 slip by 3 percent to amount to $390 million.

Garcia blamed the world financial crisis, which had reduced the demand for luxury goods, including cigars. An 11 percent drop in global travel had slowed cigar sales at duty free shops, which account for a quarter of the company’s business. Stricter smoking laws in Germany, France, Britain and United Arab Emirates, he said, had also decreased demand.

Where there’s smoke, there’s sales

Western Europe is Havanna’s top sales market, with 57 percent of total sales, followed by Latin America, at 14 percent. The Middle East and Asia together make up about 9 percent of the market or some 36 million cigars. Comparatively, in 2008, some 60 billion cigarettes were sold in the GCC.

Havanna S.A. was founded in 1994 as a joint venture between the Cuban government and the Spanish-French tobacco firm Altadis, with the latter subsequently being bought by Britain’s Imperial Tobacco Group in 2007. The company produces 27 premium cigar brands in some 80 formats, among which Montecristo, Romeo y Julieta and Cohiba are arguably the most famous.

The company distributes its cigars through its 144 Casas del Habano outlets around the world. According to one representative of Casa del Habano in Beirut, Lebanese cigar sales have not been affected by the crisis and are expected to continue to grow at an annual average growth rate of 15 percent. He did, however, expect Lebanese expatriates from the Gulf to spend less on cigars when they return for the summer holiday.

Lebanon and the Middle East are no exception from the rest of the world in the sense that Montecristo, Cohiba and Romeo y Julieta are the best selling brands. Montecristo is in fact the world’s bestselling brand with a 25 percent market share in terms of value, followed by Cohiba (23 percent) and Romeo y Julieta with 13 percent. According to Havanna President Garcia however, Cohiba rakes in the greatest profit.

Made with two types of tobacco leaf and put through extra fermentation to add flavor, the Cohiba is the company’s flagship cigar. It was especially created in 1966 for Fidel Castro and other Cuban leaders. It was made available on the open market in 1982.

An expanded selection

Cigar lovers will be happy to hear that Havanna this year announced the launch of a handful of new Cuban Delights, including the Montecristo Open and the Gran Reserva Cohiba Siglo VI, which were “designed” with the help of “master blenders, expert rollers, and tasters.”

Montecristo Open offers four new types and sizes: the Eagle (54 gauge x 150 mm long), Regata (46 x 135 mm), Master (50 x 124mm) and Junior (38 gauge x 110 mm long). The Siglo VI measures 52 by 150mm. Another major launch for Havanna in 2009 is the Robustos T (50 x 124mm), which is part of the Trinidad brand.

Then there are the limited editions: the San Cristóbal de la Habana O’Reilly (56 x 160mm), of which only 1,000 units will be sold, a special box with 50 Montecristo Doble Coronas cigars (49 x 194 mm), of which only 350 units will be sold.

If anyone thinks 194 mm is a long cigar, then think again: Cuban cigar roller Jose Castelar Cairo this year entered the world record books with a cigar no less than 45.38 meters long. Smoke that!

July 27, 2009 0 comments
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LuxurySpecial Report

Time winds down

by Executive Staff July 27, 2009
written by Executive Staff

To define luxury from a buyer’s point of view is a complicated thing. For some, a $10,000 timepiece would satisfy their senses, while wealthier shoppers would have to pass the $100,000 mark to obtain the same satisfaction. From the viewpoint of watchmakers and retailers, luxury is certainly a lot easier to define. For them, a timepiece is characterized by the number of complications it has — the features beyond the normal display of time. These complications constitute the movement of the watch, which is its internal mechanism. So the more complications a watch has, the more complex is its movement, and thus the more luxurious it is.

Luxury watch brands are many. They include Breguet, Patek Philippe, A. Lange & Sohne, Vacheron Constantin, Cartier, Zenith, IWC, Jaeger LeCoultre, Harry Winston, and others. All these brands, and many more, are continuously coming up with innovative and unique complications designed to charm customers with the most captivating timepieces.

“Watch creations today are becoming more and more sophisticated with the latest innovative technology and movements,” says Patrick Normand, managing director of Cartier Middle East and South Asia.

Luxury watches with numerous complications are referred to as ‘Grandes Complications.’ These are hard to obtain as they are very complicated, man-made and take a few years to be manufactured. Thus they are the most expensive.

Among the world’s most complicated watches is the Patek Philippe Caliber 89 pocket watch. It was launched in 1989, on the company’s 150th birthday. The watch includes 33 complications, and is made of more than 1,728 components. The $6 million pocket watch took five years of research and development and four years of manufacturing. The most important features it includes are a thermometer, the date of Easter, a star chart and sidereal time. The most expensive pocket watch also lies in Patek Philippe’s portfolio. It is the Henry Grave Supercomplication, which was sold at Sotheby’s in New York City for $11 million.

As for wristwatches, the most expensive and at the same time the most complicated wristwatch is considered to be the Vacheron Constantin Tour de l’Ile. The $1.5 million piece includes 16 features and is made of 834 parts. These features include sunset time, perpetual calendar, second time zone and others. Only seven editions of the wristwatch were produced.

There remains a more expensive watch that is worth mentioning. The watch’s price does not lie in the complications, but in the precious stones included with it. The 201-carat Chopard is a watch bracelet that includes around 870 diamonds of every color, and costs $25 million.

Complicated watches are a big challenge for watch makers, and their complexity is reflected in their high price.

“That was a big challenge for us,” says Georges Bechara, the regional director of Zenith Middle East & North Africa, when talking about Zenith’s Defy Xtreme Tourbillon Zero-G which defies gravity — meaning it negates gravity’s effect on timekeeping — and took five years of research. Bechara further explains that the zero gravity complication was thought to be undeliverable, and too hard to manufacture.

“We are talking about a watch that has 744 components in the movement, all made and assembled by hand.”

Some watchmakers might be slowing down on their novelties since the financial crisis began, but others are still active in introducing new unique movements to the market. Cartier, for example, launched its fine watch-making collection, which features in-house movements created by the Cartier manufacturer in Switzerland.

“This reflects the house’s intense and ambitious research into mechanism, displaying the art of fine craftsmanship and savoir-faire,” says Normand.

In dubai, the sale of luxury products has dropped by around 45 percent

Demand dropping off

Amid this global downturn, luxury shoppers, including watch enthusiasts, are less keen on spending and indulging themselves with palatial timepieces. Overall, the luxury sector faced a decline of 15 to 20 percent in the first half of the year, according to the ‘Luxury Goods Worldwide Market’ report published by Bain & Company, a global business consulting firm. According to their research,overall the watch and jewelry market declined 12 percent.

Worldwide, the drop in luxury sales is expected to be 10 percent for 2009, given that the market is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year. The report estimates the drop in the Americas to be around 15 percent, and 10 percent in Europe and Japan. These three markets account for 80 percent of the global sales. The Middle East and China are faring better, and might even witness a projected growth of 2 percent and 7 percent respectively, said the report.

More precisely in Dubai, Tony Jashanmal, a director of the Jashanmal Group of companies, told Reuters that sales of luxury products have dropped around 45 percent.

For luxury watches, Bechara from Zenith says “sales have dropped between 30 percent and 35 percent versus the first half of 2008 [in Dubai].”

At the other end of the region, Lebanon’s luxury market seems to be affected as well. Barkev Atamian, business manager at Ets. Hagop Atamian in Lebanon, said sales of high-end luxury watches in the country have come down by around 50 percent.

“People affected are the high society, and even if they have the money to buy, they are not in the mood,” says Atamian, explaining that 85 percent of his demand comes from Lebanese, and most of these are expatriates who are cutting their spending.

Zeina Kahwaji, general manager at Cadrans in Lebanon, retailers of luxury brands like IWC, A. Lange & Sohne and Patek Philippe, says that the drop is about a 20 to 30 percent decrease in year-to-date sales.

“But we have not entered the high season yet,” she says.

Kahwaji also says people are shifting to less expensive and less complicated watches.

“Instead of buying the most complicated watches that have 16 complications, they buy timepieces with one or two complications.”

The Bain & Company report echoes Kahwaji, stating that customers are reaching the lower category of luxury products. The report says they are more focused on the “intrinsic quality of materials and the durability of luxury items instead of on fashion content.”

Atamian disagrees however, saying: “Some of these people have more than 100 watches in their cases. They buy each time a limited edition or a watch that is very rare [comes out]. They want to have something special, so I think they will wait until the market changes.”

Pink slips between the gears

With sales orders decreasing and uncertainty reigning over the market, industry players say layoffs look likely among many of the large watch companies.

“There will be a wave of firing,” says Bechara. “All the watch companies overstaffed because the orders were abnormal.”

Bechara also explains that with orders down by 40 percent, a company cannot continue at the same pace as before. 

“In the big groups, no one waits,” says Bechara, when talking about the possibility of companies retaining their employees until markets recover.

Eric Vergnes, Middle East’s general manager at Tag Heuer, agrees.

“There are many companies that have to lay-off employees,” he says, while indicating his was not one of them. “We cannot hire anyone, but we will not fire anyone.”

Takes a lickin’, keeps on tickin’

The coming months will be tough for the luxury market, since these products will remain out of the purchasing basket of most customers until the crisis eases. But what has helped the watch market is that 2008 was a year of record growth, which has enabled these companies to invest heavily in the region, thus securing a better position in the market.

“We are not suffering that much because we have invested heavily in 2008 in a new boutique which has opened in Dubai Mall in November,” says Vergnes. “It is somehow compensating for less traffic in other parts of the city.”

Normand from Cartier has the same experience.

“Since our recent boutique openings in Dubai and Qatar, we have experienced good sales with a substantial amount of footfall in our stores.”

Market players seem to be optimistic for the summer, since the effects of the financial crisis might soften on the luxury market, especially in the Middle East where luxury still remains in demand.

“The second half of the year will be better. [Then] there is Ramadan. We will get out of it soon but in small steps,” says Bechara.

July 27, 2009 0 comments
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LuxurySpecial Report

The price of being well-heeled

by Executive Staff July 27, 2009
written by Executive Staff

In mid-June, a Saudi princess made headlines for failing to pay tabs worth hundreds of thousands of dollars at luxury clothing shops in Paris. What does it say about the Middle East luxury clothing market when even a Saudi royal can’t pay the bills?

On the one hand, the region has obviously been affected by the economic crisis, with some, such as leading Dubai retailer Tony Jashanmal of the Jashanmal Group of Companies, reporting a 45 percent drop in luxury retail sales. By the same token, the Saudi princess’ story makes it seem like the days when the regions fashionistas  could shop till they droped may be comming to an end.

Over the past decade, the region’s luxury retailing has generally been concentrated in Beirut and the Gulf, particularly Dubai and Saudi Arabia, with Kuwait playing a fledgling role. Beirut has long been home to many of the region’s top couturiers, hosting a number of European flagship stores. In the past five years, the greater levels of wealth in Gulf Cooperation Council states has led to the availability of these same luxury brands across Dubai, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, either through franchises or homegrown luxury department stores and boutiques, such as Boutique 1 and Villa Moda. In 2006, ACNielsen called the UAE the “most promising market” for luxury clothes and accessories.

But that was then…

This year, sales of luxury items are predicted to drop by 10 percent worldwide, according to a report by the consulting firm Bain & Company. For the MENA region, however, some forecasts remain relatively strong, with the Bahrain-based investment bank Investcorp predicting a 10 percent rise in the luxury sector, an optimistic outlook compared with Bain & Company’s projection of a 2 percent rise for the region this year. Investcorp further estimated that the MENA’s share of the $300 billion worldwide luxury market would rise by 5 percent, thanks to continuing oil and gas wealth and a young, affluent demographic in the GCC.

The industry’s big names, however, have suffered greatly in developed markets where their revenue bases have existed for decades. Now, emerging markets like the MENA are taking center stage and drawing the attention of the industry’s biggest names.

“We have a crisis in the US, especially in the department store [sector]. But with the UAE it’s not a crisis. It’s our highest growth in the world,” Philippe Fortunato, managing director of the Fendi Group, told Gulf News in June upon his arrival in the UAE to open Fendi’s third store.

Fortunato now has 11 Fendi stories in the GCC, and is planning to open three new Fendi stores in Morocco by the end of next year.

Optimists can also point to the region’s continuing fashion exhibitions to prove that the affinity for high-end fashion is still present. Seamus Flanagan, commercial director at Mecom Exhibitions, the company that organizes Fashion Arabia and the Shoe and Leather Fair Middle East exhibitions, said that because European high-end retailers have been “hit hard” by the global downturn, and they are increasingly looking towards the “UAE and the GCC because of the regions insatiable appetite for bling and high-end fashion.”

That said, the overall picture remains spotty. While newspapers have relayed lurid details of Dubai’s deserted shopping malls and parking lots full of abandoned cars, retailers in Beirut insist they’re doing as well as ever, thanks in large part to the relative political stability the country is experiencing. Flanagan explained that even though high-end retailers are focusing more on the region because they are looking “for more opportunities than their own markets,” they are still being “realistic and treating the situation with caution.”

Joseph Moussa, the marketing manager for Italian luxury goods brand Salvatore Ferragamo in downtown Beirut, claims that this year has been even better than last year. Then again, that’s hardly a gauge, because Beirut’s downtown was ground zero for the economic woes of the last three years of political turmoil in Lebanon.

“It’s difficult to have an idea of how the crisis is affecting us because before this year, the shop was pretty much closed because of the sit-in. The army was closing the street every day. So now it is doing better than before,” he told Executive.

Moussa estimated that sales have increased by 30 percent year-on-year, with the holiday season proving particularly lucrative.

“The holiday season always does very well in Lebanon. I’d say 40 percent of our customers came during the third and fourth quarter,” he said, adding that these clients were mostly Lebanese, rather than foreign tourists.

Accessories, rather than clothing, were the top sellers, he said. The fashion house is noted for its high-quality leather goods such as shoes and wallets.

“Accessories work better than fashion, because fashion is too expensive for now. We’ll see if that changes when foreign customer come,” he said, referring to the large number of tourists mostly from the Gulf. “Handbags and leather goods are products that everyone can buy and offer as gift items,” he noted.

Retail rents have soared in recent years, but developers do not feel inclined to lower them

Still, he acknowledges that the crisis might eventually start to jab Lebanon, and if the summer is slow, he has planned in advance how to cope, by receiving his stock at the earliest date possible, and choosing to buy less stock.

“With prestige brands, you have to get the goods very early, so you can start the discounts very early. I also negotiate with the supplier to buy less,” he said.

Nora Yagmur, the general manager at Plum concept store in Beirut’s central business district, cites a “natural growth” trend in sales that she attributes to the political stability.

She contrasts Beirut’s market with Dubai’s, noting that while “Dubai has been affected by the economic crisis, growth in Beirut was not as fast as growth in Dubai, which depended on the property business.”

Therefore, says Yagmur, her local customers are still going strong.

“We haven’t seen any negative effects due to the crisis,” she concludes.

In order to compete with other markets like Dubai and in Europe, they are offering special services to their VIP customers.

“We offer something special” for these clients, says Yagmur. “Because today they are traveling around as well, and are part of lists elsewhere that are offering discounts, like in Europe where they offer 40 to 50 percent discounts.”

“Dubai has been desperate,” she continues. “We did not take that direction. Dubai is flooded with brands — some brands are in almost all the luxury malls,” she said, referring to its saturated market, another factor that analysts have pointed to as a factor in its dismal retail performance.

By contrast, she said, “We are a concept store, and we keep changing our brand portfolio.”

The small size of their operation and close contact with their client base has enabled them to be responsive in a way that brands that rely on other distribution channels, such as third-party resellers or wholesalers, cannot.

In this respect, those at the highest end of the high-end clothing industry have a distinct advantage. Couturiers like the Lebanese Walid Atallah can make only what they know they will sell, and are rarely left with excess stock.

According to Atallah, he has not had to lower his prices either, which range from $19,000 to $1.25 million for his dresses.

“They don’t want me to make lower prices… [the client] doesn’t want another woman who has less money to wear it,” he told an audience at the Reuters Global Luxury Summit held in early June in Dubai.

He and other couturiers, who generally work out of private ateliers, are also spared the problem of competing for space in Dubai’s crowded malls. Retail rents have soared in the past few years, but developers have been less inclined to reduce rents than their colleagues in the residential property market. Instead, they must respond to the individual whims of their clientele, which Atallah said in his case means less jewelry, or smaller jewelry sets.

“In the beginning my clients used to complain to me about how much money their husbands have lost during the crisis… but now if ladies don’t wear beautiful dresses they aren’t ladies,” he said at the summit.

Sounds like a justification the Saudi princess could have mumbled to herself, as she bought nearly $100,000 worth of lingerie.

July 27, 2009 0 comments
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LuxurySpecial Report

Cheaper suites and empty beds

by Executive Staff July 27, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Luxury knows no limits at the Burj al Arab, the world’s only self-proclaimed “seven-star” hotel. The sail-shaped, suites-only hotel recently added four Rolls Royce Phantoms to its existing fleet of six, in order to pick up its high-end customers in style. With a price tag of $27,000 per night for its Royal Suite, the Burj al Arab is the flagship of the prestigious Jumeirah Group, which currently manages 11 hotels in Dubai, London and New York, while a further 14 outlets are under construction. By 2013 the group aims to have a portfolio of 30 luxury hotels.

Speaking at the Reuters Global Luxury Summit in Dubai, Jumeirah Chief Executive Officer Gerald Lawless played down the ripple effect of the global financial crisis, stating that visitors to the top-end hotel market “did not trade down.” Still, he admitted that the company was forced to cut jobs during the past nine months. It also froze recruiting — a measure the company said will only be reconsidered at the end of the year.

Dubai suffered a major economic downturn that has not left the hospitality sector unharmed. During the first quarter of 2009, the number of hotel nights spent in Dubai decreased by 16 percent to 3.87 million, according to the Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (DTCM), even though the total number of guests grew by 3.7 percent to 1.62 million. As visitors shortened their stays and hotels reduced room rates to stay competitive, revenues recorded a 15 percent fall to $854.9 million.

Tourists are traveling and spending less, while companies and multinationals have been forced to tighten their belts, sending their employees for shorter periods abroad and putting them up at less luxurious hotels.

Less cash doesn’t travel

According to the DTCM, three of Dubai’s key tourist markets (the United Kingdom, European Union and Russia) are in recession, which has led to reduced consumer and leisure spending. On a positive note, American tourists coming to the United Arab Emirates contributed $733 million to the local economy in 2008, up 85 percent when compared to the previous year. Still, average occupancy rates in Dubai hotels fell to 73 percent in the first quarter from almost 90 percent last year.

According to TRI Hospitality Consulting, January 2009 saw a 33 percent reduction in revenue per available room, and February a reduction of almost 40 percent. Occupancy rates in March improved, especially in Dubai’s beach hotels, yet seem to have come at the expense of room rates, as attractive offers were made to lure tour groups.

Lawless confirmed that key beach hotels saw occupancy rates of above 90 percent, yet conceded that room rates in Dubai had fallen by an average of up to 25 percent in the first quarter of 2009. He also said the Jumeirah chain had introduced a series of promotions.

Some positive signs were recorded in May, however, as passenger at the Dubai International Airport increased by 7 percent compared to the same period last year. Some 3.2 million people arrived, bringing the 2009 total to 15.9 million as of June 1. Dubai airport has attracted five new airlines in 2009, bringing the total to 130, which fly to more than 200 destinations.

Although the picture differs greatly by country, the global economic downturn has been less severe in the rest of the region. The same is true for the hospitality sector. The Syrian capital’s premier destination, the Four Seasons Hotel, hasn’t seen the extreme swing in rates or occupancy that has taken place in the Gulf. In fact, the hotel’s Director of Marketing and Sales, Julian Crane, expects a relatively strong summer ahead.

“The market in 2009 has experienced some decline in occupancy rates compared to 2008,” Crane said. “But it needs to be said that 2008 was an exceptional year for the hospitality industry here.”

In 2008, tourist arrivals in Syria increased by 15 percent to reach 5.9 million, some 56 percent of whom were Arabs, according to the Syrian Ministry of Tourism. Relatively, the number of Arab visitors actually fell by 13 percent. The uptick was the result of some 1.1 million non-Arabs, mainly Europeans and Iranians, visiting Syria in 2008.

With a daily rate of $366 for a double room and almost $9,000 for the Royal Suite, the Four Seasons is currently the business address of choice in Damascus. Yet competition is on the way with the announced arrival of the Kempinski hotel chain in the Syrian capital.

But the big luxury hotel chains are facing competition from a batch of recent boutique hotels opening in Damascus. Hotels like the Talisman and Beit Mamlouka in the capital’s old city are small but exquisitely rehabilitated old Damascene homes. Although the boutique suites may be more affordable, the rooms are booked for months in advance. Both hotels double room rates start at around $180, and suites are available in the $330 range.

Lebanon’s tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2009 reached a record of around 434,000 which represents an increase of 57 percent compared to the same period last year. Summer traditionally is high-season, with lots of Lebanese expats returning, as well as Emirati, Saudi and Kuwaiti tourists. 

“Summer is peak season for tourism in Lebanon,” said Michelle Mallat Rishani, public relations and communication director at the landmark InterContinental Phoenicia hotel in Beirut. “Our main source market remains the GCC, and so far reservations have been very positive.” 

When Executive called in late June, the cheapest room available at the InterContinental was the $430 per night Phoenician class room.  The $15,000 per night Grand Royal suite was occupied, though. Prospective guests with deep pockets also have the option of the $9,000 per night Royal suite or the $5,000 Presidential suite.  

Mallat is confident business will continue to boom this summer, and that arrivals will be boosted by the fact that Lebanon has become a more accessible and convenient destination with more major carriers offering routes to the country, as well as the recent addition of low cost airlines such as flydubai and Jazeera Airways.

With the Lebanese elections passing without major incident, Lebanon’s Ministry of Tourism believes the country is to receive two million visitors in 2009, which would set a new record and could contribute some $2.5 billion to the country’s economy.

July 27, 2009 0 comments
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LuxurySpecial Report

Paving the way for lavish rides

by Executive Staff July 27, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Luxury vehicles are an industry of pure prestige, and the Middle East is far from lacking in demand for opulent car brands. While numerous reports say that luxury sales in Dubai are down around 45 percent in the first two quarters of 2009 compared to the same time last year, most car manufacturers are surprisingly optimistic.

Since the financial crisis began, prices for luxury automobiles have not fallen. Instead, leading extravagant car brands have tailor-made their strategies, altering the supply to demand equation by offering fewer cars than they did before, while not lowering the asking price for each model.

The Gulf is highly dependent on expatriate spending, but the financial crisis has lowered their spending power, especially in the United Arab Emirates. But there is still much growth potential that stems from demand among the Gulf population. This situation leaves the luxury car market room to roam in the region.

Levant vs. Gulf

In Lebanon, a major speedbump for the deluxe car industry is high taxes. Nabil Bazerji, managing director of G.A. Bazerji & Sons Co., the country’s Maserati dealership, says the accumulation of taxes on luxury vehicles is outlandish.

First, consumers in Lebanon must pay a customs duties, which is 5 percent of the cost of the car. Next, customers spend another 45 percent of the car’s price tag on the ‘consumer tax.’ Then, buyers pay a value added tax of 10 percent of the car’s selling price, as well as registration taxes amounting to 7 percent of the product’s worth.

“When you pay 10 percent VAT, you’re paying it on the built-up costs, which includes taxes already,” says Bazerji. “When you pay the registration tax, you pay it on top of the selling price, including VAT. So we pay tax, on top of tax, on top of tax, on top of tax!”

Wissam Trad, director at Saad & Trad, Lebanon’s distributor for international luxury leaders Lamborghini, Jaguar, Bentley and Rolls Royce, agrees that the luxury vehicle taxes in Lebanon are absurd.

“This is too high and discouraging to potential buyers. Should these taxes be revised, I am sure sales would be even higher,” he says.

Consumers in Dubai get a much better tax deal. Assaad Raphael, chairman and general manager at Porsche Center Lebanon illustrates the drastic taxation contrasts between Lebanon and the GCC.

“[In the Gulf], there is a big tax incentive because the cars are taxed only 5 percent, which makes it the cheapest place in the world to buy a car,” Raphael says.

This benefit makes buying a luxury vehicle more reasonable in the GCC than in a country like Lebanon, where the taxes add up to more than 60 percent of the car’s total value.

Still, sales in Dubai have gone down rather noticeably. 

“They’re dumping prices and it’s another issue of flooding the Lebanese market and other markets with the overstock and excess products they have from their market,” Bazerji says. “This is a serious problem. We are losing opportunities and sales, especially since a lot of potential customers are taking advantage of registering their cars in the Gulf to avoid paying [the high taxes they would face in Lebanon].”

A question of sales

In times such as these, who would buy a brand new, luxurious, exclusive car? It seems the current economic circumstances have mostly affected the middle class.

“High net worth people are still today’s spenders,” says Raphael.

Frank Bernthaler, director of sales and marketing at Mercedes-Benz Middle East and Levant, believes consumers looking to purchase luxury vehicles may put a bit more thought into what they’re buying now than before the financial crisis.

In Lebanon, luxury vehicles have fared well amidst the global chaos.

“We are enjoying our best year ever in terms of Bentley and Lamborghini sales, and second best with Jaguar,” notes Trad. For Bentley, the Middle East represents 12 percent of the brand’s sales worldwide.

Maserati in Lebanon has also performed remarkably well in 2009.

“Sales in the first quarter of 2009 have been better than that of 2008,” Bazerji says. The brand’s opulent Quattroporte, which was launched in 2005, is the company’s bestseller.

Sales of lavish vehicles have, without a doubt, softened in the Gulf. Despite scarce liquidity and credit, GCC sales are expected to pick up as the crisis bottoms out.

Compared to the first quarter of 2008, Audi reported a 16 percent drop in sales in the first quarter of this year. A spokesman for the company says they remain optimistic.

“It is a tough time for the whole industry, but our outlook is very positive,” he says.

BMW sales have also dipped this year. Sales fell by 9 percent overall for the company. But the brand’s sales in Lebanon and Syria grew by more than 100 percent, while in Saudi Arabia they accelerated by 15 percent.

According to Stathis I. Stathis, general manager at AGMC in Dubai — the sole importer of BMW in Dubai — this year will present the industry with many obstacles, but hopes remain high.

“We anticipate 2009 to be challenging, but consumer demand in the luxury segment still remains healthy,” he says. “We have several new products planned for the year, so we are optimistic that 2009 will be another good year.”

Bernthaler of Mercedes notes that it hasn’t been all bad for the Middle East luxury car industry.

“Looking at the market in the Middle East and the Levant, we’ve seen year-on-year sales increase. Our most iconic vehicle, the evergreen G-Class SUV, grew by 139 percent in May 2009 compared to the same time last year.”

Candidly, Raphael admits that the global financial crisis has taken a toll on Porsche’s transactions.

“Of course, the economic crisis has had a negative effect on our sales, that’s for sure,” he admits.

Thankfully, Porsche’s production strategy has allowed them to avoid major fallouts.

Premium manufacturers are confident their brand images will sustain sales and customer loyalty

The engine of strategy

“We forecast our deliveries from the factory one year in advance,” Raphael says. “So by the time the crisis happened in September 2008, the factory had time to react. The strategy of Porsche factory was to produce less cars, and the reason is that we’d rather sell one car less than discount our cars.”

Thus, by producing less the company itself modified the supply-to-demand equation in order to not feel the burn of the crisis.

Trad’s company also uses a similar approach to working around the financial crisis.

“In terms of adjustment, we are more careful with the way we order and stock cars compared to last year,” he says.

Regardless, most luxurious car brands only produce a small amount of each model in order to keep the exclusivity of each design. The crème de la crème of premium manufacturers remain confident that their grandiose brand images will help sustain their sales and consumer loyalty.

Sanguine about his dealership’s brands, Trad sees opportunities.

“We are confident that our portfolio of brands[Lamborghini, Jaguar, Bentley and Rolls Royce] are very strong and have a bright future,” he says. “For this reason, we are investing in new showrooms.”

Speeding past crisis

The epitome of luxury is the $1.4 million Maybach Landaulet. The 2009 limited edition model allows passengers in the rear to relax with the top down while the driver remains separated and covered. Maybach has produced only 20 units of the Landaulet for the entire global market, and the Middle East was the first to receive one of these vehicles.

Mercedes and Maybach are some of the top-selling brands in the Middle East. According to Bernthaler, one in every 10 Mercedes S-Class vehicles sold around the world is delivered to the Middle East. Porsche is also amongst the region’s favorite list.

“Porsche has had strong growth in the Middle East in the past six years,” says Raphael. “We have grown from 2,500 cars seven years ago to 8,000 cars this year.”

Compared to last year, 2009 sales have been rather exceptional and are even higher than 2007, according to Raphael. In the Middle East, the average age of the Porsche buyer is around 35 years old, whereas in Europe the profile is around 45.

The new Porsche 2009 Panamera is the brand’s luxurious new four-door sedan. This model is expected to alter the performance of the posh sedan market, as critics say it will create high competition with Maserati’s Quattroporte, a more expensive four-door sports car.

Although car sales in many places have dropped this year, most upscale players in the luxury market segment remain optimistic. With manufacturers such as Maybach rolling out new models like the Landaulet in 2009, who is buying? The richest of the rich, of course. For the rest of us, we’ll keep on dreaming.

July 27, 2009 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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