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Levant

Built by foreign hands

by Executive Staff May 10, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Everyone has heard about the Lebanese expatriates who send money back home — a foundation of the country’s economy. But there is also a significant foreign workforce in Lebanon. Domestic workers from South Asia and laborers from Syria constitute at least 20 percent of Lebanon’s workforce. They fill gaps in Lebanon’s employment and (as a group) remit a significant amount of money to their home countries.

“Foreigners here work at jobs that Lebanese won’t do,” says Abdallah Rouzzouk, spokesman for Lebanon’s labor ministry. “It’s the nature of this country.”

According to figures from the Ministry of Labor, there are currently 93,000 registered foreign workers living in Lebanon. Of those, five percent are considered “highly skilled.” The ministry estimates there to be 300,000 foreign workers living in Lebanon.

But most estimates put the total number of foreign workers in Lebanon much higher — at 500,000 to a million. Most are Syrians, who need only their identity cards to enter Lebanon, and are engaged in temporary or seasonal work.

The next largest groups are Sri Lankans, Bangladeshis, Nepalese, Ethiopians and Sudanese. They account for approximately 20 percent of Lebanon’s workforce. But their incomes are far less than that of their Lebanese counterparts. Average per capita annual income for Lebanon in 2008 was estimated at just more than $11,000, meaning that the $300 per month normally earned by foreign workers is a fraction of what Lebanese nationals earn.

Most foreign workers’ income earned in Lebanon goes toward basic living expenses; they make very few purchases in Lebanon, and about a third of their money goes in remittances sent to their home countries.

According to a Western Union office in Beirut’s Hamra district, foreign workers regularly come to their establishment to transfer money to their home countries. Most of their customers are South Asians, as the Syrians tend to carry the cash they earn back to their country on weekends and holidays. The typical money transfer for foreign workers is $100 per month.

Paying dues

Dipendra Uprety, a Nepalese who works as a chef in Beirut, has lived in Lebanon for 11 years. Like his compatriots, he sends money back home on a regular basis.

“I’m a professional chef, and I’m happy with my salary,” says Uprety, who also volunteers as a social worker at the Nepalese consulate. He’s decided to stay in Lebanon to help other migrant workers. “I’m fine, but there are others who aren’t.”

The majority of foreign workers in Lebanon are unskilled, performing strenuous, labor-intensive and often dangerous jobs. For Syrian men, this usually means working on construction projects. For South Asian women, this commonly entails employment as a domestic worker, often with no vacations or private accommodations. Depending on the situation in their home countries, Lebanon is often the best option, even if it is not always a good one.

“What’s pushing them here is poverty in their countries,” says Semil Esim, senior regional specialist with the International Labor Organization in Beirut.

Once the workers arrive in Lebanon, they usually find themselves in a situation where competition is impossible and loose labor regulations provide few protections to these vulnerable residents.

“Poor governance has created severe distortions in the labor market, such that migrant labor is not usually in the realm of competition with Lebanese labor. The latter has higher educational levels than foreign labor,” says Jad Chaaban, a professor of economics at the American University of Beirut. “More importantly, and in light of the current living conditions in Lebanon, the Lebanese labor force cannot accept the wage levels on offer to the foreign workers.”

Chaaban says most Lebanese wouldn’t work for the $330 per month minimum wage that foreign laborers often settle for. Even if the jobs paid more, Chaaban says there are social stigmas to consider.

“Lebanon has some of the best construction in the world. who does it? The Syrian worker”

Wouldn’t be caught dead…

“The culture of shame surrounding the cleaning, construction and agricultural occupations would tend to cause Lebanese job seekers to avoid these occupations, preferring to emigrate or otherwise remain unemployed.”

There have been few laws to regulate foreign work in Lebanon. In 1964, Lebanon passed the Foreign Labor Organization Law number 17561, requiring foreign workers to register with the government.

In 1993, Syria and Lebanon signed the Agreement for Economic and Social Cooperation and Coordination. The agreement outlines the gradual economic integration between Lebanon and Syria. Six clauses outline free movement of persons, labor, services, goods, capital and transport.

“Syrian workers are really good for Lebanon,” says Rene Matta, general manager of the Beirut-based Matta contracting company, where the workforce is 70 percent Syrian, almost all working low-skilled jobs.

As the system now works, Syrian laborers in Lebanon typically work on a freelance basis, meaning they are often hired on the spot, paid in cash, and their work can be terminated at any time. This non-committal understanding from both sides has served both parties relatively well for the past two decades, as Syrian workers have helped rebuild war-torn Lebanon and unemployed Syrians have earned a living in Lebanon’s construction boom.

“There should be more organization of Syrian workers,” believes Matta. But he acknowledges, “Working the way it is now, it’s hard for there to be regulations because of the high number of Syrians. But I don’t see it happening for another five to 10 years. If regulation started today, it would start a black market of Syrian workers.”

Nadim Houry, a Beirut-based researcher for Human Rights Watch, says Lebanon’s labor unions have lost their effectiveness.

“They no longer have effective gatherings,” he said. “They should be interested in low-skilled jobs. But it’s hard to talk about a labor policy in Lebanon when there isn’t one.”

The contributions of foreign laborers in Lebanon have not gone unnoticed. As Matta puts it, “Lebanon has some of the best construction in the world. Who does it? The Syrian worker.”

May 10, 2009 0 comments
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Levant

Return of the tourist

by Executive Staff May 10, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Blonde girls in hiking boots and backpacks sightsee downtown. Men in clean white dishdashas walk on the corniche at sunset. Lost Americans haggle unsuccessfully with taxi drivers in Hamra. All signal that the tourists are back.

For the first time in four years, Lebanon has experienced an increase in winter tourism. The Ministry of Tourism says the first few months of the year saw a 20 percent rise in tourism from last year.

Political and security stability have been major factors, but credit can also go to local tour companies who have aggressively marketed their country. A string of favorable articles in Western publications promoting Lebanon as a good travel destination have helped. Lebanese ex-pats and tourists themselves can be credited with spreading the word about the country.

“My favorite thing I did in Lebanon was skiing in Faraya on a clear, sunny day,” says Hakon Fossmark, a 27-year-old student from Norway.

Fossmark has been using Beirut as a base to travel throughout the rest of the Middle East. He brushes off the travel warnings the US and European countries have issued about Lebanon.

“Certainly things can happen here, but it seems safer to walk around here than in Oslo,” Fossmark says.

Calm and sensible wins the day

It is this sense of stability that Lebanon’s tourism sector is counting on to make this summer a successful year for foreign arrivals. Lebanon’s Ministry of Tourism predicts 2 million tourists will come to Lebanon this summer.

“In 2005, tourism was dropping because of the assassinations and Lebanon’s security situation,” says Nada Sardouk Ghandour, general director of Lebanon’s Ministry of Tourism. “Tourism then increased after the election of the president. This past February, we had 98,000 tourists. We haven’t seen that in 20 years.”

Officials from the ministry have attended travel fairs and hosted conferences throughout Europe and the Middle East, including Iraq, to encourage tourists to visit Lebanon. Travel agencies are giddy.

“We’re getting more requests every month,” says Marwa Rizk Jaber, CEO of Beirut-based travel agency U Travel Middle East. “We had a lot of bookings for the ski season this year and most of the hotels in the ski resorts were fully booked during the months of January and February.”

This high demand has led to 90 percent occupancy rates at Lebanon’s 5-star hotels since the beginning of the year as well as an expansion of Middle East Airlines’ routes.

The Beirut-based travel agency Wild Discovery says inquiries about tourism in Lebanon are up 40 percent from last year. The agency is also sees the increased tourism levels in Syria as a complement to that in Lebanon.

“Lebanon is an excellent door to neighboring countries Syria and Jordan,” says Karim Saade of the Saade Group, which runs Wild Discovery. “Foreigners will come for several weeks and visit all three countries.”

Lebanon’s rural south and Bekaa have also seen an increase in visitor numbers. Carlos Khachan, founder of Club Grappe, says this is the first year he will take groups to South Lebanon to see wine-making monasteries and visit the Karam winery in Jezzine. His group has offered tours of the Bekaa’s vineyards and wineries in the Bekaa Valley since 2002.

“All of the diaspora are coming back for the elections, and they’re staying for the summer,” Khachan says. “If we work with them, it will be a good opportunity to promote Lebanon. Tourism is increasing because the political situation is getting better.”

“We are one of the pioneers of Arab alternative music. This atmosphere is very different from other places in the Middle East”

The Arab alternative

This improvement has brought what nightclub owners and others say is an influx of cultural tourists, who come to experience Beirut’s alternative music scene.

“We [are]one of the pioneers of Arab alternative music,” says Jad Soueid, a Beirut-based DJ. “This atmosphere is very different from other places in the Middle East, where there are restrictions on opening hours and alcohol. If they [the Israelis] leave us alone, we’ll have a good year.”

But Saade of Wild Discovery says it’s not just the threat of war with Israel and political instability that keeps the tourism sector in Lebanon from seeing its full potential.

“We can do better,” he says, suggesting that the Lebanese government do more to promote the country abroad, and reopen the National Council of Tourism, which has been closed for many years. He also thinks Lebanon should have more three-star hotels.

“Most of the new hotels here are five-star,” Saade says. “Because of this, Europeans find it too expensive, and that’s why they’re going to Syria more. We have an excellent brand as a country. We need to do more to promote it.”

May 10, 2009 0 comments
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Levant

Routed back to the roost

by Executive Staff May 10, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Rony H. moved to Dubai in 2003 in the midst of the city’s building boom, and eventually got a job in the red-hot property market. By 2007 he worked as real estate broker, banking $10,000 a month selling condos and apartments.

“It was easy money,” Rony said.

But a year later, the bottom fell out of the real estate market as the global financial crisis hit the Gulf. Rony lost his job when the real estate company he worked for folded. The company’s owner fled.

“He has millions with him, and he’s in Germany in jail now,” Rony said, adding that he thinks his boss was laundering money. 

Rony wasn’t caught up in the scam, and he’s now returned to Lebanon after spending the last six months unemployed in Dubai. He’s one of perhaps thousands of Lebanese who have returned jobless and near penniless from the Gulf, a phenomenon that could drastically reduce the remittances that fuel a quarter of the country’s economy.

Last year, remittances from millions of Lebanese expatriates working and living everywhere from Kuwait to Australia totaled more than $6 billion. Thirty percent of Lebanon’s labor force resides in the Arab Gulf states like Dubai, according to Standard Chartered bank.

Overall, one in every three expatriate workers in the Middle East may be poised to return home or move jobs, according to a poll conducted by Bayt.com, which surveyed 22,000 people this spring.

Lebanon’s Central Bank has planned for a worst-case scenario of remittances dropping 30 percent, says Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, although he says it’s still too early to gauge how severe the impact will be.

“Up till now, we haven’t seen really a negative affect or big change in remittances, and maybe it’s too soon for we are at the beginning of 2009,” Salameh said. “They are a pillar of stability and source of funding of the private and public sector, that’s why we give them importance.”

A river to a trickle

A decline of “between five percent and 10 percent in remittance inflows to Lebanon in 2009 would result in a current account deficit of 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the year,” wrote Byblos Bank in an article in ‘Lebanon this Week’, citing a prediction by Standard and Poor’s.

And any drop in remittances will mean Lebanese families have less to spend. Rony used to send $500 to $1,000 home every month to help his parents pay the bills. Now thousands like him, and their families, will be forced to survive on much lower salaries than were once available in Dubai.

“I need to find a job ASAP,” Rony says, indicating he’d readily accept a far lower salary than the one he had in the UAE. He says he’d accept “at least one thousand dollars per month, as a start.”

Others have, luckily, landed a job as soon as they returned to Lebanon.

Charbel Karam, 26, lost his job in January as a graphic designer at one of Dubai’s top advertising firms. With his top-notch experience, Karam quickly found a new job in Lebanon that gave him more responsibility, as an art director. He’s making about a third of what he made in Dubai, but he doesn’t mind.

“The cost of living is high in Dubai. It costs $25 for lunch,” Karam said. “I was making money but I wasn’t enjoying it.”

Both Karam and Rony had to leave cars they bought in Dubai behind. Karam says he’ll probably have to sell his late-model Chevrolet Lumina for less than he owes on it — which is about $25,000. Rony’s Nissan Murano has been left with a friend, who Rony says is taking over the loan.

Rony has other loans to worry about as well. His high-rolling, nightclub-loving lifestyle (“every night was a weekend,” he says) saddled him with $27,000 in credit card debt and personal loans.

“I spent all my money. I’m going to start from zero,” he said. Rony asked that his full name not be used in this article to protect him from creditors in Dubai.

The Lebanese Central Bank has tried to cushion and capitalize on the return of so many young expatriates by organizing new start-up loans to entrepreneurs and small businessmen, many of whom may be returning unemployed after losing jobs abroad.

The central bank has tried to capitalize on returning expatriates by organizing new business loans

Minds on the move

And the crisis may help reverse what many Lebanese lamented as “brain drain,” when fresh university graduates would flock to the Gulf for better salaries and benefits.

“[Companies from the Gulf] used to come and recruit at universities. It was so bad that we were finding it difficult to recruit people here,” said Nassib Ghobril, head of economic research & analysis at Lebanon’s Byblos Bank.

He points out that many of those graduates will now be competing with Lebanese returning from overseas for the same positions, which may glut the market with overqualified candidates.

But some returning Lebanese aren’t finding the financial adjustment so hard. It’s returning home to live with the family that is presenting more of a challenge.

“For six years I wasn’t living with my parents, and so it’s so weird. I’m a big guy now,” Rony said. “I’m not comfortable. If I have a lady come to my house, it’s bad. So once I get a new job and good salary, I will move.”

But adjusting to a new lifestyle is something the vast majority of Lebanese in the diaspora will probably not experience. The Standard and Poor’s analysis indicates Lebanon’s expatriate workers are “older, better established and, on average, more wealthy than the diaspora of other MENA countries,” according to Byblos Bank.

Younger Lebanese employees who lose their jobs, like Charbel Karam, may face the most problems in the coming year. Karam is thankful he lost his job early, so he could find a job in Lebanon before an onslaught of expats start returning home.

“Everybody is moving back, so whatever [employment positions] are available now are going to get filled up pretty soon, if they’re not filled up already,” he says.

May 10, 2009 0 comments
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Levant

Telecom’s tortuous tangle

by Executive Staff May 10, 2009
written by Executive Staff

In a country where people seem to do more fighting than talking, the need for an efficient telecommunications sector could hardly be more essential. But like many things in Lebanon, the possibilities are often overridden by reality.

“The [telecommunications] situation in Lebanon in many respects, if not all respects, resembles a disaster zone,” says Riad Bahsoun, telecom expert at the International Telecommunications Union (ITU).

The country’s government-run telecommunications sector lags far behind the rest of the region, with customers suffering exorbitant fees, bad service, poor governance and policies based more on political considerations than economic impetus.

In Jordan for example, the purchase price of a postpaid mobile line (around $12) is about one-fourth the cost of its $50 Lebanese counterpart. Lebanon’s mobile rates per minute are three to four times higher than the world average. The mobile market penetration rate stands at around 32 percent in a region where the penetration rates of some countries are over 100 percent. Lebanon still does not have access to broadband Internet.

The problems started in 1994 when the Lebanese government began rebuilding the telecommunications infrastructure destroyed during the civil war. That is when the government issued four decrees that dictated the manner and direction the telecommunications sector would take.

Calling in the dark

“The government arbitrarily decided to separate the telecom industry, without any knowledge, into fixed services, mobile services or data and internet services,” explains Bahsoun, who is also vice-chairman of the South-Asia Middle East & North-Africa Telecommunications Council.

The resulting governance structure is what Lebanese see today when they look at the tangled web of telecommunications institutions, agencies, regulators and companies.

The decrees resulted in the creation of two general directorates within the Ministry of Telecommunications (MoT). It also created OGERO, the government-owned company that, confusingly, contracts with the government to provide fixed line and internet services. It also created the Global System for Mobile (GSM) office to operate the mobile market.

Bahsoun says the government’s creation of the telecom sector left much to be desired.

“In each segment [the government] started to interfere — govern wrongly with wrong political decisions — in operational decisions,” he says. “Enormous amounts of money and chances were lost.”

In terms of potential however, Lebanon is a telecommunications pot of gold. Its strategic location, educated population and low penetration rates make it a prime candidate for a thriving telecom sector. But it has not come to pass.

“There is a direct correlation between government ownership… and inefficiency,” says Ghassan Hasbani, vice president and partner at the consultanting firm Booz & Company.

Nearly all telecommunication revenues go directly to the government. The only exceptions are providers of end-user Internet and data service such as Inconet Data Management (IDM), Cyberia and others. But even these providers are dependent on the government- owned infrastructure and are subject to revenue sharing agreements with the government. That said, no one seems to know how much money the providers and data operators are making, and how much they are paying to the MoT.

“The Ministry of Telecommunications has something like a dozen revenue sharing agreements with data operators where by the government receives 20 percent. They have never been audited,” says the ITU’s Bahsoun. “Those who may decide to audit are those who receive the money.”

Originally forecasted Lebanese telecommunications reform schedule

Source: TRA
* The privatization of the mobile sector will depend on the regional and international financial market conditions
** Two mobile operators and Liban Telecom
*** Two mobile operators and Liban Telecom
**** Two national broadband licenses, subject to CoM’s decision

Market indicators

Source: TRA
(*) Per household
Note: Mobile and ADSL figures are as of Q2 2008; Fixed and Internet figures are for 2007.

Privatization

Many industry experts say privatization is the key to improving Lebanon’s telecommunication sector. But efforts to free telecoms from government control have proved futile despite attempts to corporatize and privatize the sector.

In July of 2002, the Lebanese government passed Law 431/2002, called the Telecommunications Act, which established the legal framework for the creation of a joint stock company named Liban Telecom.

“I took part in about 35 committee meetings to pass the telecommunications law and we had a dream that it would be implemented immediately,” says Yassine Jaber, current member of the Lebanese Parliament and former Minister of Economics and Trade.

Liban Telecom is intended to be a government-owned body with a corporate framework that eventually replaces the MoT. It is mandated to encourage development, approve licenses, participate in privatization and encourage transparency. But it doesn’t exist yet.

What does exist is the Telecom Regulatory Authority (TRA). The TRA was also created by Law 431 to regulate Liban Telecom’s operations and to encourage competition and investment in the Lebanese telecommunications market.

Although Liban Telecom is nonexistent, the TRA was established in April 2007 “in a sort of cloud,” says one telecom executive. Its first five-member board meeting was held almost five years after Law 431 was enacted.

Kamal Shehadi, chairman and CEO of the TRA, says Lebanon’s politicians lack the will to implement the reforms stipulated in Law 431. He points out that putting the law into action would “cut the umbilical cord between politics and telecommunications.”

The TRA to date has no legal mandate over the MoT or any of its organs, which include both mobile, fixed line telephony as well as Internet access.

“We regulate the market. We don’t regulate the internal governance of a company,” Shehadi says. “We do not get involved in the internal governance of the ministry; that is not our business.”

MP Jaber explains, however, that according to the law, the TRA should be the only entity that manages the sector. “Unfortunately, because of politics [the MoT] has sidestepped the TRA.”

As Lebanon’s telecommunication drama has dragged on, the allure of maintaining government ownership has outweighed the benefits of privatizing the sector.

In January, Telecommunications Minister Jibran Bassil said the Lebanese treasury earned more than $1 billion from the mobile market in 2008, and banked over $300 million from the operations of OGERO. The government’s control over the telecommunications sector is often justified as necessary to ensure a constant revenue flow into the government’s coffers and to pay its debt. But that argument has become less justifiable as the rest of the region leapfrogs the Lebanese telecom industry.

“Government ownership in mobile [telecommunications] is generally not conducive to productivity,” says Booz & Company’s Hasbani.

The idea to privatize the networks inched closer to realization in November 2007, when Lebanon was slated to auction its mobile networks. The decision was reversed only a few months later due to Lebanon’s political stalemate. After the Doha accords, privatization was again put on the table. Then the financial crisis hit, and the proposal was put on the shelf. Again.

In February, the mobile management contracts of Lebanon’s two mobile networks were renewed under a new agreement between the government and Lebanon’s two mobile operators: MTC, part of the Zain group, and Alfa, now managed by Orascom.

“The contracts have to be renewed because there was simply no way for the council of ministers and the TRA to proceed,” Shehadi says.

Previously, MTC and Alfa were paid a flat fee of around $5 million a month to manage the networks. In the past, both operators paid all the operating costs associated with running the networks. This arrangement was, by nature, antithetical to encouraging growth in the sector, because any increased expansion of the networks would increase operating costs, thus reducing the bottom line of the operators.

But Claude Bassil, general manager of MTC in Lebanon, says that under the new management contracts, “the objectives of both the Ministry of Telecommunications and our own are aligned.”

MTC currently receives $6.66 per active subscriber and Alfa receives $6.75 per active subscriber, drastically changing the revenue model, and giving the operators incentive to expand.

Probably the most important element of the new arrangement that will impact the growth of the mobile market is the new pricing structure put in place by the government at the beginning of April.

The plan lowers prices for prepaid monthly subscriptions ($45 to $25), prepaid minute rates ($0.50 to $0.36), monthly subscription fees ($25 to $15) and postpaid minute rates ($0.13 to $0.11) in a move that has been eulogized by many as the sector’s first shift toward a viable pricing structure. The new contracts can be renewed for a period of one year, or revoked if privatization of the mobile networks ever becomes a reality.

With a subscription-based revenue model, the interests of the mobile operators now focus on expanding Lebanon’s overburdened and aging mobile network infrastructure, part of which fizzled out in late March during the prime-time hours.

Samer Salameh, chairman and CEO of Alfa, says the problem was caused by a software bug in a faulty switch that was provided by Nokia Siemens Networks. The switch has been replaced by the company.

“The network… is around 14 years old,” Salemeh says. “Imagine a car that is 14 years old and how it will run today if you don’t change the oil. This is what we have.”

As Executive went to print, both mobile operators were aiming to expand their respective networks by 400,000 subscribers each by May, to reach a nationwide total of 2.4 million subscribers.

The expansion is made possible by an agreement between the operators and the government. The government has agreed to take on the costs associated with any kind of capital expenditure, purchasing everything from towers to switches to buildings. The operating costs are being incurred by the mobile operators. Such an arrangement has made their bottom line look rather dim.

“We would be lucky if we actually make any money this year,” says Salameh. “We are actually forecast to lose some money.”

So why are the mobile operators willing to accept a loss-making agreement? The answer, it would seem, is that they want to get their foot in the door if the government ever decides to sell a chunk of the mobile network.

“We are not interested in [just] managing the network,” says Claude Bassil of MTC’s unique contract in Lebanon. His company usually owns and manages all aspects of the telecommunications network it operates.

At this point the government’s privatization yo-yo has become commonly accepted practice. And further conditions are now being applied to the sale of the networks. The government changed its sales pitch in February after signing the management agreements, saying that it will only offer a minority share for sale to a strategic partner, because the “majority should be reserved for the Lebanese as investors, as individuals or as funds,” says Minister Bassil.

The idea of a minority share has been met with staunch opposition from industry experts who fear that such an initiative would be contrary to the promise of privatization. Hasbani says the move could also reduce the perceived value of the networks, and scare off potential investors. TRA’s Shehadi says the plan is ludicrous.

“These are proposals that have no basis whatsoever in the reality of the telecommunications market,” he says. “They are unprofessional proposals made by people who have never transacted in the telecom market and have never worked on a licensing effort or privatization.”

Proponents of selling a minority stake say such an arrangement is in the interest of Lebanon’s citizens.

Hizbullah — allies of Minister Bassil’s Free Patriotic Movement — has come out in favor of the minority share plan. In the party’s political platform it stresses “the preservation of this national wealth through the sector development and improving its services.”

Ought to audit

Aside from the problems with operations and debates surrounding privatization, irregularities abound in the telecom sector, especially in the auditing process, ITU’s Bahsoun says.

“For 14 years the fixed services network has never been physically audited,” he says. “The operations of OGERO have never been financially audited. And the two mobile networks that have existed in Lebanon since 1995 have never been physically or financially audited.”

The decision to physically assess and audit the networks rests with the Lebanese government, through the MoT, and there is a disagreement as to whether a full technical assessment of the mobile networks has been completed. Shehadi says that OGERO to date does not have an updated fixed asset registry, making it impossible to perform a financial or technical audit.

“There is no such thing as an audit for OGERO,” says Shehadi. OGERO did not respond to requests for comment on this allegation.

On the mobile side of things, the government has appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) to produce an audited financial statement in order to gauge the financial position of Lebanon’s mobile telecommunications. Gilbert Najjar, head of the Owner Supervisory Board, the government entity that oversees the GSM office at the MoT, explains that according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), PWC has fulfilled its obligations and both mobile operators have provided their financials. That said, his office requires a full audit of all the major accounts of the two operators, instead of just the sampling procedures carried out under the IFRS.

“I told the auditors that I will not approve accounts on this basis because I am dealing with the accounting of government money and I need to have a proper check of all documentation,” says Najjar. “I need the major accounts checked and audited on a proper basis, I cannot do it on a sampling basis.”

The issue has been pending since the mobile operator’s contracts were signed in 2004. Only when all parties involved sign off on a final audit will the case of the mobile operators’ financial standing finally be closed.

“At the end of the day you need the government of Lebanon, the operator, and the auditor to come together and this has not happened,” says Claude Bassil of MTC.

This creates a problem for the TRA, because as Shehadi says, his agency is tasked with providing potential investors with the information they need to invest in the mobile networks.

When asked about why these requests have fallen on dead ears, Minister Bassil says, “[The TRA] has nothing to do with privatization; it is something that the minister decides and a policy that has to be adopted by the council of ministers and by our parliament.”

The Owner Supervisory Board is currently in the process of an internal audit of its major accounts.

“These are unprofessional proposals made by people who have never transacted in the telecom market”

Goop in place of governance

In 2005, then Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamade appointed then general director of operations and maintenance at the MoT, Abdulmenem Youssef, to be chairman and general manager of OGERO. OGERO is contracted to, and paid by, the Office of Operations and Maintenance at the MoT. Bahsoun says this arrangement presents a clear conflict of interest where “the right hand plays the left hand.”

Executive attempted to contact Youssef several times, but he did not respond to requests to address Bahsoun’s allegations.

The Capital Expenditure Committee, called CAPEX, of the Owner Supervisory Board is the government entity that monitors the mobile network operator’s capital expenses. The CAPEX Committee also contains members of OGERO’s board.

“All the CAPEX Committee members either work for OGERO or the MoT and that has been the case for the past few years so there is nothing new,” says MTC’s Claude Bassil.

But Gilbert Najjar says only one board member of OGERO, Alain Bassil, also currently sits on the CAPEX committee.

“It was a decision taken by [former] Minister Hamade and by the general directors of telecommunications who at the time had the powers of the TRA,” Najjar says.

Lebanon currently buys its bandwidth from the cypriot telecom authority, effectively making it a bandwidth colony

Internet at a snail’s pace

The cost of the telecom sector’s spider web of authority is apparent in the archaic speed of Lebanon’s Internet connections. The minister himself seems to have little hope in curing the situation.

“I am sorry to say that as the telecommunications minister, I tried to make some headway with respect to [improving Internet access and services,] but was incapable of doing so,” he said in a speech at the Arab Telecom and Internet Forum last month.

Lebanon currently buys its bandwidth from the Cypriot Telecom Authority (CYTA), effectively making it a bandwidth colony. Plans are in motion to increase Internet speeds. In June, a government project will lay 4,700 kilometers of fiber optic cables in the form of an outer ring and an inner ring to encircle the country. The project is set to be completed by 2011 and cost the government $64 million.

Shehadi says the TRA has also initiated a plan to allow private license in the broadband arena. There is also a plan to connect Lebanon to the International Middle East Western Europe 3 (IMEWE3) network, which could add more bandwidth to the country’s decrepit Internet infrastructure. But Riad Bahsoun of the ITU says the plan would require someone to cut through what may be considerable bureaucratic red tape.

“IMEWE3 is a good decision, but it has to go through Alexandria, and the internal security services in Egypt are not happy because they probably haven’t gotten their share of the corruption,” says ITU’s Bahsoun.

There is little hope that the ills of Lebanon’s telecom sector will be remedied until the results of the June parliamentary elections are in and a new government has been formed. When asked whether any headway can be made with regards to privatization or reform during the current government’s term, Minister Bassil laughed and said, “Definitely not. We can wait.”

May 10, 2009 0 comments
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Editorial

Let talent roam free

by Yasser Akkaoui May 10, 2009
written by Yasser Akkaoui

In spite of everything, the Arab world is adapting to the current crisis. There is developing, out of the gloom, a positive attitude. There have been no more dramatic crashes and we are factoring this reality into our ‘books.’ In short we are less traumatized. It is as the French say, la vie c’est l’habitude. Still, looking at the numbers, the crisis is very much a reality and will not be going away any time soon. So despite this new-found stoicism, measures to spur growth are still needed.

This is where the UAE’s policy of insisting that foreign talent leave the country within one month of leaving a job — enforced or voluntary — is, at least in the current zeitgeist, somewhat short-sighted. A nation in the grip of an economic crisis needs consumers. This is real economics and a scheme should be developed whereby these people — many of them Lebanese, it must be said — be allowed to stay and, more crucially, to spend their money (not, mind you, money that has come from welfare, but for example money from unemployment insurance policies that the unemployed themselves have paid for). Let them stay and spend on their cars and spend on their apartments as they forage for new work.  Then, there would be no urban myths of sand-swept airport parking lots filled with abandoned cars with credit cards tossed casually onto the passenger seat.

Without these people, there will not be ‘real’ economic activity. And the policy of ejection will have an even greater impact on those economies that have already been buffeted by what are arguably the worst economic winds in 60 years. We must be thankful that Dubai’s neighboring emirates — especially Abu Dhabi — have not been hit as hard and have, by maintaining a degree of price relativity, not seen prices, real estate in particular, plummet.

Keeping these valuable human assets on the ground will bring out the best in their entrepreneurial survival instincts. They will regroup; they will network; they will seek out new opportunities and all the while they will be spending and this can only lead to eventual growth. It has happened in Lebanon since the 1970s, when civil war forced the Lebanese to be at their most creative, and it is still going on — despite the best efforts of our politicians to squash any economic dynamism — as many struggle to recalibrate their business lives to the new reality.

Let human talent roam free and it will thrive.

May 10, 2009 0 comments
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Executive Insights

Capitalizing in these times of crisis

by Mazen Skaf May 3, 2009
written by Mazen Skaf

The authors of Executive Insights have been invited by this magazine to offer their professional opinions and analysis to you, the reader. Executive magazine does not endorse the analysis of Insight authors, nor should the Insights be interpreted as reflecting the views or opinions of Executive or its editorial staff.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, testifying before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, called the current economic crisis a “once-in-a-century credit tsunami.” For companies across industries, access to credit has certainly been an acute near-term concern. But as governments and central banks act to ease credit markets, corporate leaders must now make larger strategic decisions, under conditions of extreme uncertainty, that will determine how well their companies fare against the strongest economic headwinds in decades.
Astute business leaders realize the current environment will open significant opportunities for their companies to benefit from the dislocations across industries. To identify and capitalize on these opportunities in the face of significant uncertainty about the length and depth of the current crisis, decision-makers should take an integrated approach to strategy and risk management. Specifically they should:
• Reassess the risk-return profile of their corporate portfolio as well as new investments under consideration.
• Develop strategies and contingency plans shifting payoff profiles toward a greater upside and limited downside.
• Build and maintain strategic maneuverability.

Reassessing the risk-return profile
The current financial crisis has triggered a re-pricing of assets and has brought about significant volatility in commodity prices and financial securities. The result is that many asset prices across several classes of assets may decline in a very long process and may overshoot on the way down just as they overshot on the way up.
In addition, several industries are witnessing fundamental shifts in underlying value drivers, ranging from freight rates to energy prices to availability of credit. Companies in these industries should therefore rigorously reassess the risk-return profile of their current corporate portfolio of business units and investments. This should be based on both a sound analysis of the underlying value drivers and the ranges of uncertainty associated with these value drivers, as well as the exposure of the corporation to those uncertainties resulting from the corporate strategy and investments.
In this context, it is critical to distinguish between uncertainty and risk exposure. One may be uncertain about the direction of prices of a certain commodity like natural gas, for example. However, risk exposure is determined as a result of the strategy, asset investments, and contractual obligations of an entity or corporation and how they are driven by an uncertain parameter. As part of evaluating any new investment opportunity, decision-makers should demand rigor at three levels:
(1) Thorough assessment and understanding of the relevant uncertainties; (2) analysis of the risk exposure to specific uncertainties resulting from the contemplated investment, taking into account the corporate portfolio of assets and contractual obligations, and (3) evaluation of the risk-return profile of the contemplated new investment and comparison with the risk-return profiles of other available alternatives.
In the making, timing, and resourcing of strategic decisions, leaders face a deeper and broader set of uncertainties than they have likely ever faced. Consider just a few of those uncertainties:
• The depth and length of the crisis — Predictions of the magnitude of the current economic crisis range from several quarters of recession to doom-and-gloom scenarios of prolonged worldwide depression. While forecasters may differ on the length and depth of the current crisis, the real challenge lies in developing a robust strategy with contingency plans.
• The effect of government intervention — Just as the Great Depression ushered in the New Deal, the current crisis is likely to see a fresh wave of government actions, including regulation, stimulus packages, global trade restrictions, or at least skepticism about free trade. Certainly, few people would have predicted even a few months ago that the US would not only be bailing out financial institutions but also taking an equity stake in them. Increased regulation may slow recovery, and various forms of economic stimulus may favor some industries over others, but the consequences of these interventions — intended and unintended — remain unknown.
• The impact of deleveraging — With some $600 trillion in derivatives contracts outstanding worldwide, perhaps $10 trillion in mortgages in the US, and $60 trillion in credit default swaps in the US, the unprecedented level of leverage in the economy will take a long time to unwind. This deleveraging is leading to the re-pricing of different asset classes and recalculations of risk. Further, as asset prices across several asset classes decline during a very long process, it’s possible that they will overshoot on the way down just as they overshot on the way up.

Developing strategies and contingency plans
Taking an integrated approach to strategy development and risk management enables decision-makers to shift the payoff profile of an investment or the overall distribution of shareholder value towards greater upside, while limiting the downside (see graph on this page).
In a military context, it is often said that “the mission comes before safety;” otherwise, no one would leave the barracks or base. The parallel in a business context is that strategy comes before risk management. Usually, that is the case and strategy sets the structure and provides the context for the best approach to risk management. However, in times of great uncertainty and significant volatility, organizations should take an integrated approach to strategy and risk management to limit the downside exposure and increase the potential upside in the case of favorable market conditions.
The types of bets that organizations should consider or pursue are ones with limited downside yet with significant or unlimited upside. This is similar to buying a call option on a stock, or negotiating an option with a contractor for expanding a factory that would be exercised in the case of a market turnaround.
Unfortunately, many of the financial services companies that ran into trouble were doing just the opposite: aggressively selling instruments that exposed them to unlimited downside risk for a small fee upfront. In addition to the fundamental flaws in the models used by such financial services firms, and their mispricing of risk, the root cause may lie in incentive structures that rewarded short-term performance without weighing the impact on long-term shareholder value.

Seeing opportunity where others see risk
Just as stock volatility presents savvy investors with rich opportunities for gain, the current economic uncertainty offers similar opportunities for enterprises that know how to make strategic decisions. Distressed assets are likely to be available at a bargain as some companies are forced to raise cash to reduce debt. Opportunities for mergers and acquisitions will also be plentiful. In specific industries, uncertainties will create “white space” where companies that comprehensively understand value and risk can prosper. In petrochemicals, with slowdowns in the US and China and decline in feedstock prices globally, attractive opportunities to acquire capacity or companies may appear in late 2009 and 2010.
Opportunities are likely to be even greater for companies in industries that do not require a great deal of leverage or debt finance. There may be opportunities in some industries for smart companies to leapfrog the competition and take the industry lead. Again, the key will lie in knowing how to comprehensively understand risk and value in reaching strategic decisions.

Building and maintaining strategic maneuverability
During periods of steady growth and expansion, it is easier to foresee how conditions will evolve, although it is no less important to comprehensively understand uncertainty, value and risk. In times of great uncertainty, conditions can evolve much more unpredictably, with wide swings, sudden impact and lingering effects. Such times offer great opportunity, but safely seizing those opportunities requires strategic flexibility and maneuverability, not bet-the-company gambles. The current downcycle may take several quarters or several years to play out, but strategic maneuverability can enable a company to outlive the downcycle.
One key source of strategic maneuverability lies in building a cash reserve (see table) and securing access to credit for when it is needed in order to judiciously capitalize on attractive acquisition opportunities. We are seeing deals with attractive fundamentals selling at a fraction of book value or with very attractive earning yields. However, acquirers need to keep three things in mind:
• More attractive deals may materialize. Keep some buying power in reserve to take advantage of those deals.
• The fundamentals themselves may change given the strength of the underlying trends. Several industries are going through seismic shifts and earnings projections may prove too optimistic to attain. Valuation benchmarks and multiples may be further revised.
• Even for very attractive deals that pass due diligence, inching into the full investment position in a specific sector may be advantageous. Use a rigorous analysis of the sequential decisions and the uncertainties related to asset valuation to understand the overall risk-return profiles of various investment alternatives.
Over the course of the current downcycle, entire industries, markets and geographies may be transformed. Banking has already been profoundly changed. In the face of such tectonic shifts, strategy development should encompass a full understanding of the risk-return profile of any strategic alternative. It should also include how best to split the investment into a sequence of smaller investments. Those smaller investments enable learning and contingent responses as conditions evolve — the essence of strategic maneuverability.

The way forward
Given the scope, magnitude and unpredictability of today’s uncertainties, leaders can be forgiven if they find the challenge of making sound strategic decisions extremely daunting. The spread between best-case and worst-case scenarios can be vast and so can the consequences of strategic miscalculation. Further, traditional approaches to strategic decision-making confuse risk with uncertainty, resulting in sub-optimal decisions. But by understanding uncertainty and risk, identifying opportunities and maintaining strategic maneuverability, leaders can do far more than simply steer clear of danger. They make strategic decisions that harness today’s economic headwinds to take their companies forward.

Dr. Mazen Skaf  is partner and managing director of the Europe and Middle East Practice of Strategic Decisions Group

May 3, 2009 0 comments
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Finance

IPO Watch – A pent-up market

by Executive Staff May 3, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Capital market desks from Riyadh to Damascus continue to experience a great deal of backlogs for IPOs that are ready and waiting for the ice to break. Experts say that risk capital will eventually open up to new issuers and the IPO market is expected to pick up further momentum in the third and fourth quarter of 2009.

The experts might be right. In late April, and despite the severe downturn in local markets, Gulf investors announced the establishment of a $10 billion Islamic ‘godfather-of-all-banks’ bank to tap interest in sharia-compliant institutions. The new bank will be based in Bahrain and will be called Istikhlaf Bank. Adnan Ahmed Yousif, chairman of the Union of Arab Banks, said plans include a private placement of $6.5 billion and a $3.5 billion IPO in the fourth quarter of 2009. He added that the bank will be listed on the Bahrain Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Dubai. Some of the seed investors include the Islamic Development Bank, Saudi Investment Bank and the Kuwait Real Estate Bank. “The bank has raised $3.5 billion including $1 billion from the management. We are hopeful it will be ready by the fourth quarter,” said Al Baraka chairman Shaikh Saleh Abdulla Kamel, who is promoting the bank.

April showers bring May flowers
So April did not only bring with it spring, it also brought with it the earning season, two other IPO announcements and solid numbers for the four insurance firms who floated their shares during the third week of the month. The concurrent IPOs of the four insurance companies on the Saudi Stock Exchange were all well received in the market, according to announcements.
Al Rajhi Company for Cooperative Insurance or ARCCI saw its $16 million offering subscribed some 151 percent in only the first two days of its IPO. According to a statement by the issue’s lead manager, Al Rajhi Financial Services Co, over 146,000 subscribers signed up on April 18 and 19 for shares worth $24 million.
The combined value of the shares offered for subscription by the four insurers approaches $70 million. Besides ARCCI, the issuers are Weqaya Takaful Insurance and Reinsurance Company ($21.33 million), AXA Cooperative Insurance Company ($21.33 million), and ACE Arabia Cooperative Insurance ($10.6 million).
AXA and ACE also encountered handsome demand; according to statements, offerings were covered about three and six times, respectively, several days ahead of the close of the subscription on April 27.
Vodafone Qatar, which closed subscription to its $952 million IPO on April 26, did not immediately disclose if there was over-subscription. However, the company praised the “overwhelming public support” it received for this IPO.
Qatar National Bank (QNB), the country’s largest bank, said that it plans to float 32.5 percent of Qatar National Bank – Syria in May in an attempt to raise over $35 million. QNB will retain a 49 percent stake in the new bank, the Syrian government 15.5 percent and three percent will be offered to private investors. QNB – Syria has a paid-up capital of $100 million and will offer 3,250,000 shares priced at SYP500 each ($11).
The Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Steel Industries plans to launch an IPO in 2011 provided local markets stabilize, said Chairman Hussein Jassim al-Nuwais. Although no additional details were provided about the IPO, if confirmed the IPO is expected to generate a lot of buzz as observers expect it to be one of the largest IPOs in 2009.

An IPO tower
The Dubai-based Alpha Tours, which had announced its intentions for an IPO in early 2007, said the travel services company will float 50 percent of its shares to the public in the second quarter of 2009. Alpha, who has appointed Ernst & Young as the lead manager for the issue, seeks to raise $150 million, according to statements made by Ghassan Aridi, Alpha Tours chief executive.
The Jeddah-based Knowledge Economic City Co., or KEC, which announced its IPO plans last month, released additional details about the float, saying that it will sell a 30 percent stake in an attempt to raise $301.6 million in May. The Saudi authorities approved KEC’s license with capital of $906 million.
So the IPO pipeline in the region continues to do better than its peers in the United States (US) and European markets. Obviously, it will take much more interest for the IPO market to return to its pre-2008 conditions, but larger private and government companies cannot continue to put off their IPOs indefinitely. As these companies scale up, so does their capital requirements.
Given the substantial opportunities for regional companies in the US and European market, the cost of expanding internationally through buying a major competitor in those markets is beyond what even large venture-capital firms can provide. Unless the larger private and government companies can tap the IPO market, they cannot continue to grow.

May 3, 2009 0 comments
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Executive Insights

EM Leadership Center

by Tommy Weir May 3, 2009
written by Tommy Weir

The authors of Executive Insights have been invited by this magazine to offer their professional opinions and analysis to you, the reader. Executive magazine does not endorse the analysis of Insight authors, nor should the Insights be interpreted as reflecting the views or opinions of Executive or its editorial staff.

Almost every day CEOs and business leaders ask me, “What is going to happen now with the global financial crisis?” or “When will it be over?”
Well, it is over! We can confidently rest on the fact that the world of business as we know it is finished. Sure, many will give their all to bring it back; but no matter how much effort is exerted it is not coming back. This is not a doomsday comment, but rather a statement of reality and a challenge to look ahead to the future.
There simply is too much happening simultaneously on the global scene for there not to be a history-making revolution in the private sector.
For example:
• The Gordon Gecko days (from the film “Wall Street”) of prevailing greed are going to have to give way to business leaders acting responsibly. Your investors and consumers will demand it.
• The days of short-term high-risk driven solely by the quarterly results will be replaced by a focus on long-term sustainability. As CEO you will be held culpable for the long-term prosperity of your company and possibly even its impact on others.
While many businesses are longing to get back to the way things were prior to the crisis, CEOs are asking, “when will it be over?” and “how can we return to the way that it was?” The intelligent leaders are asking what the new business environment will be.
As we look to the future, we should all be wondering, “why do organizations overlook the statistic that is going to have the greatest impact on business ever?”
We all know the global financial crisis has had a crippling impact on business as it cut the supply to the hot air balloon of business and let the air out. Of course, this means that you will have to recreate how you do business and lead differently. But the statistic that matters more than any other is that the emerging markets comprise 80 percent of the global population, and the developed world (North America, Western Europe, Japan) are just 19 percent.
Over the past decade we have divided the world according the developed world and the emerging markets, which is a classification based on a nation’s social or business activity in the process of rapid growth and industrialization. But in the future we will segment the world according to where the people are. 
We can say that the era of emerging markets is ending and thanks to the global crisis this is being accelerated. Now, we are moving into a new era, what I call, “peopleization.” This era can be defined as the rise and coming together of populations.
Peopleization is about more than the location of the markets. It is about who the people are. Let’s look at another defining statistic.
The percentages between the markets are almost exact opposites. In the emerging markets 29 percent of the population is under 15 whereas in the developed markets 25 percent is over 55. And the population in 12 percent of the emerging markets is over 55 and 14 percent of the developed markets is under 15.
While the West is suffering from an aging population, the Emerging Markets are wrestling with a “youth bulge.”
Now, let’s figure out what this means for us as business leaders. To do so, you need to answer these questions in your boardroom.
Where is your future market?
Who is your future market?
What defines them?
What are you going to do about it?
As we think about the future, perhaps we should compare Gordon Gecko and Slumdog Millionaire. Both are millionaires. Is that where the comparison stops? The days of Gordon are gone. What is your future?
Whether you agree or accept it, your future is caught up in peopleization!

Tommy Weir, Ph.D., serves as managing director of the EM Leadership Center

May 3, 2009 0 comments
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Finance

The financial crisis – Banked with optimism

by Executive Staff May 3, 2009
written by Executive Staff

One year ago, with the global economy fully immersed in its ongoing downslide, Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, a senior economist for the Middle East region at Standard Chartered Bank, went on a speaking tour. As he listened to economists and audiences from around the region, Dauba-Pantanacce couldn’t help noticing a disconcerting trend — many people thought the economic crisis was ending, and the world was headed for a recovery.

“Of course,” Dauba-Pantanacce said recently, “we can see now, in fact, that’s not what happened.”
Dauba-Pantanacce, who encourages people to call him Philippe (he knows his name is hard to pronounce for non-francophones), prides himself on bringing a dissenting view to economic discussions. In the fall of 2007, for instance, Standard Chartered had been one of the only major banks to predict that interest rates in the United States would drop to one percent. They were right.
Late last month, Philippe brought his contrarian’s instinct to a roundtable discussion on the global economy and its impact on Lebanon, held at the Intercontinental Phoenicia Hotel in Beirut and organized by Executive. At the moment, the outlook for Lebanon, which had thus far weathered the economic crisis with surprising resiliency, did not look good.
Nassib Ghobril, the head of Economic Research at Byblos Bank, had recently been reading a handful of country reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others — “they were all very gloomy,” he said. Just that week, for instance, the Economist Intelligence Unit had downgraded Lebanon’s expected economic growth in 2009 from 2.7 percent to 2.4 percent. It was the third such downgrade this year.
The focus of this pessimism, as everyone at the table knew, was the expected decline in earnings around the world — especially the Gulf, where some 30 percent of Lebanon’s expatriate workers are based. That fact continues to threaten a dramatic decline in Lebanon’s remittances, which constitute at least 25 percent of gross domestic product.
Philippe was not dissuaded. He believed that things could be worse and, in fact, thought they might be getting better. Philippe is willow-thin and he has an easy-going affability. He was wearing a tailored, dark suit with a bright pink tie. Sitting next to him on one side was Pik Yee Foong, the chief executive officer of Standard Chartered in Lebanon, who had earlier introduced him as “Mr. Philippe.” On the other was Abdel Rahman Mogharbel, a manager at the Banking Control Commission at the Central Bank of Lebanon, which has been credited by many, including Philippe, for insulating Lebanon from the crisis with its conservative policies.
“We are calling this crisis the Great Recession, versus the Great Depression,” Philippe said. “The fourth quarter of 2008 was appalling, but the first quarter of 2009 was better.” Where Lebanon is concerned, Philippe sees remittances declining less precipitously than most due to the stability of the Gulf, adding that low oil prices will drastically reduce the cost of energy, a major burden on the country’s expenditures.

Gulf of hysteria
The focus of Philippe’s analysis was an outlook for the Gulf countries, particularly the United Arab Emirates, that was stronger than that of most other economists. For months, the business press had been filled with articles predicting the demise of Dubai — the downward spiral, they called it — and Philippe thought the whole thing was overblown, a lot of “hysteria.” As he saw it, the downturn in Dubai had been driven by an over-inflated real estate market, but that the market “correction” was, “for the medium to long term, a good thing.”
“Where will the engine of growth come from in Dubai?” Mazen Hanna, an economic advisor to Saad Hariri, asked Philippe. Like several of the Lebanese economists at the roundtable, Hanna found Philippe’s take on the Gulf a little hard to believe. Dubai’s economy, he pointed out, was “one of the most affected today because it was the most exposed internationally.”
Philippe’s answer was, to some extent, non-academic — we don’t know all the details, but the money keeps coming from somewhere. He mentioned some maturing bonds that had recently been paid out by an unknown investor.
He went on, “This crisis has put Dubai to the test, but more than Dubai it has put the UAE as one country to the test.”
Dubai had been bailed out by Abu Dhabi (another thing Philippe says he had predicted with certainty before most other analysts), which may have cost Dubai its independence, but in exchange had actually fortified the UAE’s economy in the long run.
Now instead of two separate economies — one, Dubai’s that was heavily based on real estate speculation (and thus highly unstable), the other, Abu Dhabi’s, that was solely based on oil and gas reserves (and thus ephemeral) — there is now a shared, diversified economy.
Going forward, the UAE — with a distinct geographical advantage, and a “logistical structure” (including major ports and airlines) that Philippe considered 10 years ahead of anyone else — could position itself as a major transportation hub and the “warehouse of the region,” he said.
With regard to Lebanon, Philippe pointed to something more intangible: the strength of domestic confidence.
“Domestic consumption can drive every force of the economy,” he says, pointing to the US, where 70 percent of the GDP comes from it.
Meanwhile, he says the Lebanese people’s great faith in their national banking system has meant that deposits nationwide have, and will continue, to rise. More bank deposits means more money to offer as loans.
Once again, the Lebanese were less bullish than Philippe.
This was something one private banker — who preferred to remain anonymous — knew a thing or two about, and she pointed out that one  of the reason the banks in Lebanon were so well capitalized was because the Lebanese had so little faith in other markets. “Even if you have a political crisis in Lebanon the outflows have nowhere else to go,” she said. “It’s very superficial.”

A bad moon a-rising
Standard Chartered’s Pik Yee Foong said that although the deposit to loan rate in Lebanon was fairly well endowed, there were “mixed signals” on demand for loans.
And Imad Jamil Zbib, an assistant vice president at American University Beirut and a former professor of business, saw a more pressing indicator: graduating seniors were having a hard time finding jobs, especially now that they had to compete with more experienced young professionals returning from layoffs in the Gulf.
Yasser Akkaoui, the editor-in-chief of Executive Magazine, who was moderating the panel, asked the collected experts what they thought were the biggest risks for the Lebanese economy.
The obvious answer was the unstable political situation. “I think the political deadlock in the country had derailed the privatization process,” Mazen Hanna said, referring to efforts to privatize Électricité du Liban, as well as the telecommunications networks.
He went on to address the dangers associated with Lebanon’s dependence on remittances and expatriate investments, which account for a large percentage of the banking sectors’ deposits.
“My greatest fear is a point in time where you would find that this financing is no longer available to the government, and the government in such a world would have no recourse to the rest of the world because of the current situation… That would be the gloom scenario.”
On this, at least, Philippe agreed. Much of the domestic spending he had pointed to was dependent on what he called the domestic dynamic: “a feeling, real or imagined, of security and political stability.” A major security or political crisis in Lebanon could upset the whole balance. He agreed privatizing EDL was also essential.
But if his dissenting predictions were right — as they had been so often in the past — then the stability of the Gulf countries ought to be a sufficient bulwark, at least, against Mazen Hanna’s “gloom scenario.”
For most of the conversation Abdel Rahman Mogharbel had been tight-lipped, not willing to say too much, perhaps worried that, as a representative of the Central Bank, his thoughts could be misconstrued as foresight. Finally, he turned to Philippe, smiled, and said dryly, “You seem optimistic.”

May 3, 2009 0 comments
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Levant

Campaign priorities – The Grand Serail’s to-do list

by Executive Staff May 3, 2009
written by Executive Staff

Lebanon has an exasperating array of economic issues which will need to be tackled by the new government that will be formed after the June 7th general elections. Many leaders speak about economic plans and reform, but can their walk match the talk?

“Not one of the current candidates for the upcoming elections has a clear understandable economic vision for Lebanon,” says Oussama Safa, the general director for the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. “This shows that accountability and checks and balances have no part in the elections. The elections are a battle of slogans not programs.”

As part of this magazine’s election coverage, Executive has asked Lebanese business figures, academics, economists and civil society leaders to provide what they think the economic priorities for the next government should be.
Stability seems to be top priority.

“If there is political stability and security then there will be confidence. Confidence is the key aspect to economic growth,” says Nassib Ghobril, head of economic research for Byblos Bank.

Safa says that to achieve stability, Lebanese politicians must place their first priority on “forming a national unity government and staying away from controversial issues.”

However, March 8 and March 14 have already begun to disagree over the meaning of a national unity government. The March 8 coalition has made clear that, for them, a unity government means that the minority has veto power in the next government. March 8 has already offered March 14 a blocking minority if the opposition wins. But March 14 has made clear that they want direct competition in this election where the winner takes all. Prime Minister Fouad Saniora told Reuters that “a national unity government is not only favorable but it is important… But for us to depend on ‘veto power’ governments means that we will reach… a point where we cannot advance.”

Stability is one priority that does appear to be achievable, despite the current disagreement over the makeup of a unity government. Rapprochement between Syria and Saudi Arabia helps, and increases the prospect of a government with a minority wielding veto power. Antoine el-Khoury, general manager of BREI Real Estate, says “we should be smart enough to find common ground.”
Besides stability, Khoury and other interviewees say the new government should focus on reducing the role of the state, fighting corruption, increasing transparency and containing the economic crisis.

Reducing the role of the state

The cost of doing business in Lebanon is prohibitive for Lebanese businesses and foreign investors. Reducing the role of the state is seen as a key step toward creating a better environment for these business interests. This is seen as particularly urgent given the increased competitiveness of the region and the global financial crisis.

In their report ‘A New Path for Economic and Social Development in Lebanon’, Marc Daou and Jad Chaaban — president of the Lebanese Economic Association and an economics professor at the American University of Beirut (AUB) — articulate how Lebanon is in danger of being overrun by the rest of the region: “Human capital, Lebanon’s main competitive advantage, has deteriorated. Despite spending lots on education, the quality of learning is low compared to other countries, and outcomes are not up to expectations.” One of their recommendations is to “reduce the role of the state to the regulation and provision of public goods.”

Nassib Ghobril of Bank Byblos argues that the new government should go even further than this. Ghobril claims that 2007 was one of the worst years in Lebanon’s recent modern history but the economy still grew by four percent.
“What does this tell us? We only need a minimal government in Lebanon,” he says.

The level of bureaucracy that the state imposes on businesses in Lebanon can be incredibly taxing, says Safa. “It takes 42 days to set up a business in Lebanon which is probably the longest in the world.”

Another reason the private sector wants the state out of its business is because of the negative relationship between the two. Khoury says that when his company goes to the civil service they make him and his company “feel like thieves,” just because they are businessmen. He says that at the same time the government is not doing enough to promote responsible businesses. “We feel alone fighting against irresponsible businessmen draining the resources of the country,” remarks Khoury.

The bloated Lebanese bureaucracy is viewed as needing a complete overhaul, which would include shrinking and reorganizing the government. One interviewee who requested to remain anonymous says that certain parts of the administration are very corrupt. The procedures laid out by the various administrative departments are deliberately unclear and inconsistent; a citizen always needs to hire mediators. He also added that his company must pay bribes to various part of the government administration to get the public documentation.

Corruption and transparency
Lebanon is currently ranked 102nd of 180 countries on the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). Other indicators such as the Global Integrity Index, the World Bank Governance Indicators, as well as the Open Budget Index confirm Lebanon’s desperate situation when it comes to corruption and transparency.
The Lebanese Transparency Association (LTA), the Lebanese chapter of Transparency International, has been working hard to bring the government to account. Gaëlle Kibranian, program manager for the Democratization and Public Accountability program at LTA, says Lebanon’s situation is dismal.
“Lebanon remains [a] confessional [system], which shapes the relationship between citizens and state, as well as the lack of separation of powers,” Kibranian says. “This leads to nepotism, clientalism, and patronage.”
Kibranian argues that one of the first measures the government should be taking is to “implement the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC), which was ratified by Lebanon.”

Khoury confirms the need for more ethics, particularly in regards to the real estate sector, “which is not only important for us but also in attracting investors.”
But it’s not all bad news and there is some hope that politicians will take corruption seriously. The elections and the new election law are a case in point. Kibranian notes that the monitoring and controlling of this year’s campaign spending has made a difference.

“It has meant that politicians are taking the question of corruption very seriously, trying to abide by the law, in order to avoid future challenges,” claims Kibranian.
Apart from outright corruption through bribes, Safa gives another view of the problem in relation to overlapping interests. He says close relationship between the government and the Lebanese banking sector is too close for comfort.
“The bankers and financers are in bed with the government — the prime minister is a former banker and the Lebanese government owes billions to the Lebanese banking system,” Safa says. “The result of this is that different economic sectors are ignored.”

The power of the banks was recently illustrated in their rejection of a proposed interest rate increase and a social security proposal that was stopped by the Bank Association. According to Nassib Ghobril, 54 percent of the public debt is owed to Lebanese banks, illustrating what a stranglehold the banks have on the Lebanese government.

But the banks have recently been held up as Lebanon’s savior, and rightly so, in the face of the global economic crisis. The firm foundations of the Lebanese banking system, demanded by the Lebanese Central Bank, have saved the economy, thus far, from significant harm amidst the turmoil of the global economic crisis. The economic crisis continues however, and the experts say the new government should focus on protecting Lebanon.

The global economic crisis    

The president of the World Union of Arab Banks, Joseph Torbey, recently called for the Lebanese government to create a ‘national strategy’ to strengthen the financial and monetary system against the financial crisis. Torbey says a strategy is urgently needed, given Lebanon’s large public debt.

This was backed by Freddie Baz, general manager of Bank Audi sal-Audi Saradar Group, who wrote in the Daily Star that the financial crisis was worse than anyone could ever imagine. A similarly gloomy view was reflected in a comment by an anonymous J.P. Morgan adviser quoted in the Star. The advisor didn’t see an end to this crisis before 2015.

So, despite the fact Lebanon has so far escaped the consequences of the global economic crisis, and even benefited from the crisis through increased deposits, there may still be a long, rough road ahead.

Although Lebanon may have benefited from increased deposits, Bank Byblos’ Ghobril says many of the resources for financing the public debt are now gone due to the financial crisis and the lack of liquidity.

The chance to privatize the telecommunications sector and Middle East Airlines has now been missed. Ghobril says even if the privatizations continue, it will be a long time before investors are willing to pay the prices they were eyeing just a year ago, in 2007.

“A Credit Suisse report stated that the government could have received $5 billion for the telecom network but in the current financial crisis the valuation has collapsed,” Ghobril stated.

Most significant for Lebanon is the predicted fall in remittances, which account for 27 percent of Lebanon’s current account receipts — the highest such share in the region. Ghobril warned that the future is precarious for Lebanon economically because of the likelyhood of a huge drop in remittances.

“Standard and Poor’s carried out a stress test that showed that if remittances drop by 20-30 percent, as expected, this would lead to a current account deficit of 17 percent of GDP,” Ghobril says.

Not only does Lebanon have to cope with its citizens abroad not sending money back, but Safa says the new government will also have to cope with “waves of Lebanese [who] may return.”

“A main challenge for the government will be finding jobs for all of these returnees,” says Safa.

The wrap-up

The challenges for the Lebanese economy and next government are enormous. It is clear that the main priority for the next Lebanese government should be stability, and once this is achieved then the many challenges to the Lebanese economy can be addressed.

These challenges are intertwined and can be solved through the creation of good governance policies. Good governance in the current sectarian system is yet to be achieved and many doubt the upcoming election results, regardless of who wins, will change this feature of Lebanese government.

However, if the above priorities are addressed in an economic strategy that is then implemented, the economic woes of the budget deficit, the balance of payments, social inequalities and the trade deficit could all start to be ameliorated. Being content with stability, however, may be more realistic.

May 3, 2009 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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