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InsuranceSpecial Report

Insured at the money pot

by Executive Staff May 18, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Bancassurance is a sector that has been growing steadily in Lebanon in the last few years. After all, the country is known for its thriving banking sector. The consolidation of the industry has translated on the local level in a simplified basket of products, targeting the mass made available in the far regions of the country through a sprawling network of branches. 

“Bancassurance was launched in Lebanon about six years ago. Currently we tend to identify two main types of products, which are investment and protection insurance plans,” said Rima Rached Baz, head of the Non Credit Product Unit at Bank Byblos. Under the first family of products featured are retirement and educational schemes, while the second type of insurance includes products such as income insurance, obligatory and third party insurance. According to Baz, the advantage of income insurance resides in a flexible payment plan approach, with installments starting as low as $2, and providing a 12-month income coverage for clients who were fired by their employer. 

What’s in the basket?

Naturally, mandatory insurance such as all risk, car and property insurance are also provided by all financial institutions and applied to all loan applicants. Pierre Talhami, Manager of Beirut Brokers, a Bank of Beirut (BoB) subsidiary, underlined that the bank boasts some 11 products, ranging from life, to medical, home owner, travel, personnel accident and saving plans.  Expatriate medical insurance plans are among the many products that are offered by Fransabank through Bancassurance SAL, while their non life insurance type is provided by AXA. 

Banks tend to depend on various marketing strategies to attract clients. BoB’s strategy relies on the use of brochures placed on bank counters, while depending also its network of personal bankers. “In addition to our existing network of client we also target institutional clients, by making direct calls,” explained Philippe El-Hajj, head of retail banking at Fransabank.

“The main objective of bancassurance products is to reach out to the mass. Insurance is therefore standardized, made more affordable and flexible. Payments are also made through smaller installments. The process becomes easier to understand and less time consuming, most clients who purchase insurance at the bank will be immediately insured,” said Baz.

Although they are sold through the banks’ branch networks, issuance of insurance contracts remains the prerogative of insurance companies. “The major advantage that is inherent to bank assurance is the smoothness and easiness of the service, which is thus streamlined.  In addition to reminding their clients of payments deadlines banks also offer lower rates than conventional insurance companies due to the law of economies of scale,” El Hajj said. By adding insurance to their basket of services, banks morph into one stop shops where clients can settle electricity bills, their car loans and buy insurance in one single step. “Insurance services also contribute to the cross selling of all other bank products,” he added.

Selection of insurers

According to Byblos’ manager, insurance contracts bought at Byblos are issued by ADIR, a subsidiary of the Byblos holding group. This partnership allows the company to utilize the bank’s network of 73 branches, Baz explained. BoB’s approach to the insurance industry has been to acquire its own insurance brokerage firm. “Through the alliance of BOB and Beirut brokers, clients have access to a varied basket of products through a careful selection of the best insurers available on the market,” said Talhami.

The manager believes that banking and insurance are two sectors that with time are becoming more complementary. With such partnerships, banks are promoting the creation of a new market, one which falls beyond the reach of conventional insurance and brokerage firms. “With insurance payments starting as low as 2$ per month, banks offer products that are too competitive for other industry players,” Talhami pointed out.

Another insurance specialist, who chose to remain anonymous due the sensitivity of the topic, underlined that rivalry is pitting brokerage firms against banks. “[Clearly], banks are invading the natural arena of insurance brokers and chipping away their client pools,” said the specialist.

In only a few years, the industry has managed to grow tremendously, as banks overcome progressively cultural barriers and are able to better educate clients. “We have noticed a positive change in the behavior of customers who tend to automatically inquire about insurance, which was far from being the case only a few years ago,” says El Hajj. 

“Life and retirement insurance have also become increasingly popular. There has been more than a 30% to 40% growth in the bancassurance market, a growth that is spread equally over the country. The south and north regions have also witnessed positive growth levels,” according to Baz.

Talhami agreed that growth levels have been steady for some time, reaching a level of some 25% per year. On the other hand, while Hajj acknowledged that 2005 levels were estimated at around 30%, he believes recent figures will not exceed 18% due to product saturation in certain market segments, with Fransabank’s insurance client pool including some 200,000 individuals. “The younger generation is also more aware of and more inclined to buy insurance,” he said.  Clients seem to also favor investment plans, as they become familiarized through their banks with the idea of safeguarding their future. 

One of the industry’s main challenges remains the relative lack of clarity of the Lebanese legislative insurance environment, which is monitored by the Ministry of Economy. “The adoption of best insurance practices is progressively contributing to the development of the legislative framework,” said Baz. According to Talhami, a proper legislation remains to be developed.

In the current speculative environment, has the subprime crisis reflected on Lebanese life insurance market? Hajj reckons that the subprime crisis has indirectly affected the industry, although it has been subdued by the bank’s alliance with big players such as Crédit Agricole. Fransabank currently boasts some 40,000 life insurance clients .

All managers interviewed by EXECUTIVE agreed that insurance products allow reinforcing sentiments of loyalty among clients who find that their needs are satisfied at a single service window. Most identify culture as the main challenge faced by the industry, hoping that one day insurance will be viewed by customers as a basic need. “The long term objective of insurance companies is for penetration to attain a level of 70 to 80%,”said Hajj.

May 18, 2008 0 comments
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InsuranceSpecial Report

Packages at a premium

by Executive Staff May 18, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Lebanon is one of the region’s insurance pioneers with 53 registered insurance companies.  Yet Libano-Suisse General Manager Lucien Letayf believes that penetration levels in Lebanon fall short, with a yearly individual spending of $150, compared to an average of about $1,700 for western countries. The $500 million Lebanese insurance market is very small relative to the Saudi Arabian one worth some $6 billion.

“Penetration levels for medical insurance are estimated at some 15%, property at 5%, while third party motor, excluding compulsory insurance, varies between 30% and 35%,”said Habib Farah, deputy manager of AXA.

Arope’s general manager, Fateh Bekdash, considers Lebanon’s insurance per capita expenditure as very high when compared to other countries in the region. When insurance spending associated with energy risks are excluding from total regional figures, Lebanon’s per capita spending rates are among the highest in the Arab world,” he explained. “The region remains underinsured,” added Letayf.

Lebanese insurance companies have adopted different expansion strategies to beef up their presence.  “AXA Middle East depends on AXA international, which is one of the largest international insurance providers. Our field of operation, although limited for now to Lebanon, also includes Syria, Jordan and Cyprus. Although Syria offers interesting opportunities, it is still in its nascent phase, with the insurance law promulgated only a year or so ago,” underlined Farah.

Reaching into the region

Libano-Suisse has looked beyond Lebanon’s borders and expanded in other regional countries such as Qatar, Syria, KSA and Jordan.  Arope, a subsidiary of BLOM, has reached into the Syrian and Egyptian markets, while Arabia Insurance is also positioned in the region, with Lebanon only representing 6% of the company’s total turnover.  The company also holds majority shares in Arabia Syria, after the country was recently opened to investors.

Most insurers interviewed by EXECUTIVE attribute the industry average growth of about 8% to international and local factors. Habib Farah identified several factors accounting for the sector’s limited growth. “On the local scene, the Lebanese political situation has significantly affected companies. We’ve nonetheless been able to achieve a satisfactory growth of 12%,” he reckoned. 

On the macro-economic level, Arope’s manager identified several factors reflecting negatively on the industry such as soaring oil prices, inflation, higher costs of medical services and technology. Regardless of the challenging work environment, the company has managed to secure an 11.4% growth by March 2008, according to a study published by Al Bayan.

The situation has translated to higher non renewable figures on the local level, as many clients left the country in the wake of the 2006 war, according to Bekdash. The political context has reflected on the turnover of Lebanese companies as well as a number of new ventures, which have decreased dramatically. 

“Our company has been able to attract a number of clients away from other insurers,” explained Farah. He believes high fixed costs, intense competition, and scarcity of new projects are factors heavily weighing down the insurance industry, and they are exacerbated by the unstable political situation. “In order to survive companies are either looking into other regional markets or drastically reducing prices, a measure which affects their profitability levels.  Some players are even failing to abide by the legal fixed price of mandatory insurance, which is frequently commercialized at discount. Such measures are increasing companies’ exposure to risk,” he added.

Socio-economic demographics have prompted companies to develop new insurance products or focus on new segments to curtail the downward trend.  LEAF, the Lebanese Education Aid Fund,  was created by AXA  in collaboration with the Council of Catholic Schools. This product targets parents of students of Catholic schools around Lebanon, whereby some of the profits are allocated to a special school aid fund for the less fortunate. “We were able to identify a need for which we tailor made a product,” said Farah. The company has recently issued a new property insurance product called LM7, or London market seven, which provides an extensive coverage exceeding other types of property insurance. 

According to Farah, the Lebanese insurance clientele is becoming more professional, with awareness levels for insurance products rising steadily, a factor that has contributed to the growth of the sector as well as encouraged competition.  “Penetration levels for third party car insurance did not reach 15% some ten years ago,” he added. With time, client profiles have also evolved.  While ten to fifteen years ago, clients belonged mainly to the upper crust including business owners or self employed individuals, today insurance is more and more addressed to the masses.

Mandatory insurance

The introduction of the concept of mandatory insurance imposed by banks to loan applicants progressively modified the insurance market and created awareness among the population.   People seeking a bank loan for buying a car or house are required to purchase third party and life insurance.

“The introduction of mandatory insurance associated with car loans, visa applications (to Europe), expatriate compulsory insurance for house maids, have all spurred awareness among the Lebanese public,” said Bekdash.  Market players such as the CDR and Solidere have also positively affected the insurance industry by imposing property insurance on projects and rental space.

At a later stage, the emergence of bank insurance as a new market segment has modified the insurance playing field. Products became increasingly standardized, and payments made more flexible.  Letayf believes that although banks are certainly playing a pivotal role in insurance, the relation between banks and insurance companies needs to be regulated in order to protect consumers and competition.

In the last few years, the market of bank insurance has taken off rapidly. Banks considered as respected economic players in Lebanon have provided insurance products with an added credibility according to Letayf. “We have witnessed a 100% growth in life insurance product from previous years, partly due to the introduction of bank insurance. It has become increasingly difficult for insurance companies to influence banks which are restricting choices of consumers,” said Letayf. Because of bank insurance, he believes brokers need to modify their market approach and focus more on larger institutional accounts.

To secure a larger piece of the pie, each company has relied on a different marketing approach.  While AXA’s client base is mainly constituted of corporations, which amount to some 60% of its total portfolio, Arope has focused its attention on the retail insurance segment, although it features, in addition to its individual clients, medium to small size enterprises.  At Libano-Suisse, retail insurance makes up to 60% of the company’s total client base. Arabia’s customers are mainly institutional, while up to 50% of their retail insurance clients stem from their wide brokerage network.

Most companies agree that motor and medical insurance coverage are driving the industry.  “On the other hand, life insurance is one of the most profitable types of insurance,“ underscored Farah.

New trends have emerged on the international insurance scene, triggering the development of innovative and sometimes unusual products.  “We have recently launched insurance products offering coverage against sabotage and terrorism risks as well as in case of event cancellation, involving war and terrorism attacks,” Bekdash pointed out.

Other products that have become increasingly popular abroad are ones covering losses associated to credit card fraud or embezzlement, which are adapted to modern life requirements. Travel insurance is another type of insurance that has become more popular and “credit insurance is another interesting segment,” reckoned Farah.

Insurance managers interviewed by EXECUTIVE underlined that although Takaful (Islamic insurance) presented promising opportunities, it required careful analysis and preparation. But, as Bekdash said, “There is a definite need for Takaful.”

Nabih Baaklini, COO of Arabia Insurance, explained that generally speaking Lebanon’s market is quite westernized in terms of insurance products, although certain lines of risks are still untapped; mainly those covering engineering liability, medical malpractice or risks associated with the responsibility of directors and officers.

“In Lebanon the high competition has improved drastically the standards and quality of products offered,” underlined Letayf.  Products that are more complex require higher awareness levels, in the general manager’s opinion.  “You will have a sense of the market when you take the insurance legislative frameworks, where only third party bodily damage is considered as mandatory, while third party material damage is excluded,” he pointed out.

New trends appearing on the market involve outsourcing. “Outsourcing remains an interesting tool at the hand of insurance companies, one that can be mainly utilized in areas such as IT and HR.  Outsourcing claim management can also be beneficial to companies. It was introduced a few years ago, unfortunately the concept failed due to obvious conflicts of interests,” said Baaklini.

Mednet has positioned itself as one of the primary outsourcing companies in the medical claim segment in Lebanon. “Given the excellent results our partnership with Mednet has brought and allowed us to drastically reduce our expenses, we are also considering outsourcing our car claims,” said Farah. AXA’s manager believes some of the bankruptcy cases witnessed in the 1990s were mainly due to the costs associated with cumbersome operations, such as medical claims.

Letayf agreed that outsourcing is a general principle that is commonly accepted. “We are studying outsourcing motor claims but it will ultimately depend on our regional expansion. We might eventually decide to use an in-house one motor claim center for the whole regional group, if this solution makes more business sense for us,” he said. 

On the other hand, Arope has adopted a different stance on the matter as the company has chosen to manage directly its high frequency claim department. “We feel that our relation with the client ought to remain personal, as no one knows our clients better than us.  We are reputed for the quality of our service, the best in town according to people,” Bekdash claimed.

Waiting challenges

Many daunting challenges await insurers in Lebanon. “On the regional level, insurance companies will have to compete with foreign firms who are increasingly eyeing the Arab markets. Compliance is also becoming another important concern for insurance companies,“ Baaklini claimed. 

Other challenges perceived by Arabia Insurance’s manager reside in the areas of H.R., where issues such as attracting and retaining talent and the ability to make profit on the underwriting are becoming more prominent.  Most companies are also confronted with the issue of low penetration levels, which can be partly improved by an active collaboration between insurers and governments and the use of mandatory insurance.  “Other factors slowing the development of the industry are low income levels mainly in countries such as Lebanon and Syria, although the situation has definitely improved in Jordan in recent years,” said Baaklini.

In the area of life insurance, managers acknowledge financial performance was far from hitting its peak in 2007, due to the overall economic situation. “The subprime crisis bore an indirect effect on the Lebanese industry, although insurance companies were not as badly hit by the crisis as banks, as their investments extend over a longer time,” explained Farah. By law, Lebanese insurance companies have to invest at least 50% of their life insurance portfolio in Lebanon.  “We follow the ratings set by a board of directors, which focus essentially on triple A products and certain economic sectors,” emphasized Bekdash.

The regulatory framework remains at the heart of insurers’ preoccupations. “The legislative environment needs to be further defined, mergers should be encouraged as well. There are some 53 operational insurance companies in Lebanon, a figure that is extremely high for a country this size,” said Letayf.

Insurers agree that third party mandatory insurance should extend to property, as well as car insurance for material damages.  “Most companies in Lebanon are awaiting the new insurance law, which is supposed to reorganize and redefine the new industry framework, but remains for the moment under discussion.  The new legislation will certainly set the tone for the overall insurance industry and might encourage mergers and acquisitions, which have become a necessity in the current environment,” explained Baaklini.

Many insurance specialists believe that although mergers have been discussed repeatedly, it remains a distant dream, one of the barriers to mergers and acquisitions residing in the structure of the insurance industry where many companies are often family owned.

May 18, 2008 0 comments
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InsuranceSpecial Report

The Takaful way

by Executive Staff May 18, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Compared to the global insurance industry market, the MENA industry is characterized by a severe under-penetration. The demographics of the region are partly responsible for this, as the region’s majority Muslim population is hesitant to purchase insurance products for traditional, religious reasons. However, according to EFG-Hermes, “knowing that the region is under penetrated is not of itself very interesting, unless we understand some of the demographic, cultural, legal and institutional reasons for this under penetration.” The emergence of Takaful is aiding the industry in addressing the cultural issues of the regional market.

What is Takaful?

Takaful is the concept of Islamic insurance, and complies with sharia rules. Historically, various forms of Takaful have been around for over 1,400 years. In an article for Pak-Qatar Takaful Group, Muhammad Ayub writes that, “Takaful is not a new concept in Islamic commercial law,” and moreover, “contemporary jurists acknowledge that the foundation of shared responsibility or Takaful was laid down in the system of ‘Aaqilah’, which was an arrangement of mutual help or indemnification customary in some tribes at the time of the Holy Prophet.” According to leading provider of Takaful solutions, SALAMA Insurance, this system of aqilah laid “the foundation of mutual insurance” in the Muslim world.

The foundation of Takaful is based on the notion of mutual cooperation, assurance, protection, responsibility, and assistance between groups of insurance participants. It can be said that Takaful is a form of mutual insurance. Many insurance companies in the region are adopting Takaful methods as it is sharia-compliant and hence adds appeal to the insurance industry.

Takaful vs. Traditional insurance      

SALAMA Insurance states that “the concept of insurance which simply means the pooling of common resources to help the needy is very much in line with the teaching of Islam which propagates solidarity, mutual help and cooperation among members of the community.” Further, SALAMA highlights that “[i]t is important to understand that Islam is not against the concept of insurance but the basis of operation of conventional insurance, which does not meet the requirement of Shari’ah.”

According to SALAMA, “The essence of insurance could be seen in the system of mutual help in the Arab tribal custom of blood money or diyah. Under this system, a victim or the injured party would be compensated by the members of the community whose action had resulted in the loss of life or impairment of the victim.”

Takaful insurance is “the Islamic alternative to conventional insurance products,” according to EFG-Hermes. As it is based on the principle of mutuality, EFG-Hermes finds that Takaful “emphasiz[es] (particularly for life) on co-operation, inter-responsibility, and assistance between groups of participants. In essence, the economic structure of a Takaful company can be seen as a hybrid between that of a mutual insurer and a conventional insurer.”  The purpose of the Takaful system, as opposed to traditional insurance, is not to profit but rather to uphold the idea of “bear ye one another’s burden.”

Ayub notes that “[d]ifferent views have been expressed about the status of conventional insurance from the point of view of Islam. An overwhelming majority of the Shari’ah scholars believe that it is unlawful due to involvement of Riba (interest), Maisir (gambling) and Gharar (uncertainty). Takaful, the Islamic alternative to insurance, is based on the concept of social solidarity, cooperation and mutual indemnification of losses of members. It is a pact among a group of persons who agree to jointly indemnify the loss or damage that may inflict upon any of them, out of the fund they donate collectively. The Takaful contract so agreed usually involves the concepts of Mudarabah, Tabarru´ (to donate for benefit of others) and mutual sharing of losses with the overall objective of eliminating the element of uncertainty.”

One distinctive characteristic, according to Ayub, between Takaful and conventional insurance “is more visible with respect to investment of funds. While insurance companies invest their funds in interest-based avenues and without any regard for the concept of Halal-o-Haram, Takaful companies undertake only Shari’ah compliant business and the profits are distributed in accordance with the pre-agreed ratios in the Takaful Agreement. Likewise they share in any surplus or loss from the pool collectively. Takaful system has a built-in mechanism to counter any over-pricing policies of the insurance companies because whatever may be the premium charged, the surplus would normally go back to the participants in proportion to their contributions.”

SALAMA Insurance emphasizes that “the operational framework of conventional insurance is against the tenets of Shari’ah, but not the basic concept of the insurance. Takaful which means ‘the act of a group of people reciprocally guaranteeing each other’ – is based on the concept of mutual cooperative insurance.” Evidently, Takaful is simply a culturally altered form of traditional insurance.

Current growth trends and industry watchers point towards a US$ 10 to 15 billion industry (in per annum contributions) within ten years, but not without addressing critical factors…

Insurance market influences

Source: FG-Hermes

Family Takaful vs. Life Insurance

The cultural characteristics of the MENA region have created obstacles for traditional life insurance to penetrate the regional insurance industry. EFG-Hermes holds that “while life insurance was seen to be problematic initially, scholars looked at Islamic principles of mutual insurance and providing a social safety net. This eventually matured into the concept of Family Takaful, which provides insurance for the loss of family members.”

Interviewed by EXECUTIVE, Dr. Saleh Malaikah, CEO of Dubai-based SALAMA Insurance, said that “the biggest potential for growth is in the life Takaful segment. It is the most interesting and exciting area right now in this part of the world.” Family Takaful, and Takaful solutions in general, are currently gaining momentum in the region, especially in the GCC countries.

Growth in the Takaful sector has largely outpaced that witnessed in respective insurance sectors…

Growth of the Insurance Sector and Takaful Sector by Country (CAGR % 2004-2006)

Industry experts have highlighted six areas which are most likely to affect future profitability and growth…

ReTakaful vs. Reinsurance

EFG-Hermes defines the difference between reTakaful and reinsurance rather simply, stating that “Just as a primary Islamic insurer can accept primary business from both an Islamic and a conventional customer, a reTakaful company can reinsure both an Islamic and a conventional insurer. The main difference lies in the management of its investment portfolio: a reTakaful insurer must ensure that it makes only Shari’ah compliant investments.”

Cultural context and ethical appeal of Takaful

EFG-Hermes notes that the “most important feature of the GCC markets, and to a great extent all markets where Islam is an important religion, is the injunction on traditional insurance products from Islam. This injunction is, however, not total: In pre-Islamic and early Islamic society, there was little concept of risk-transfer beyond that of a social insurance obligation.”

Thus, continues EFG-Hermes, “when it is said that there is a conflict between Islam and the construction of insurance instruments, this is an inferred injunction and not a direct one. In fact, the Islamic injunction against some types of insurance is really an injunction against gambling, although in the case of life insurance, there are additional factors.”

EFG-Hermes goes on to importantly accentuate “the fact that these are derived injunctions means that there is considerably more ‘wiggle room’ than there would be otherwise.” This “wiggle room” means “that there has – in most places – been an insurance market operating perhaps unofficially, for a significant amount of time. [And] this has resulted in a section of the population taking out insurance. Nevertheless, clearly the injunctions themselves, as well as the lack of a properly regulated insurance market which is a natural by-product of these injunctions have been strong contributors to the underpenetration of these markets.”

Oussama Kaissi, General Manager of Abu Dhabi National Takaful, noted that because Takaful is sharia-compliant, it acts as “one of the main drivers behind the growth we are witnessing, but its penetration into the western market should remain humble due the demographic distributions.”

Ghassan Wazen, Managing Director of ACE Insurance Egypt, thinks that “people will feel more comfortable when they buy Takaful insurance than any other traditional insurance,” due to its compliance with Islamic law. He also feels that because Takaful has been rather successful in areas like Malaysia and the GCC, he sees “no reason for it to not have the same success here in Egypt.”

Holding that Takaful “is very well developed,” Wazen believes that it “will avoid the religious question because it will make people more comfortable with the idea of insurance.” He also goes further to shed light on the Islamic insurance market in Egypt, saying “there are six companies that are interested in doing this type of business in Egypt.”

Insurance industry leaders feel that Takaful holds an ethical appeal to not only Muslims, but non-Muslims as well.  Kaissi finds that “Takaful products and investments in their nature are ethical and that has been proven to be a selling point with non-Muslims entities and individuals,” adding that “the examples are many, i.e. the assets of Christian churches in some Muslim countries are being insured with Takaful operators.”

Michael Bradford, Senior Reporter for Business Insurance Europe, also feels that “Not only will Takaful grow among Muslim customers, but some experts say marketers of the coverage are finding that non-Muslims also are interested in Takaful products. As long as Takaful providers put together dependable products and earn a reputation for quality service, their offerings will be in demand.”

Similarly, Malaikah believes that “Takaful has the potential once it hits a certain critical mass and credibility to really share into the conventional market for non-Muslims simply because it is rewarding from a financial point of view. Because Takaful is saying that this pool of insurance premiums belongs to the insured, and the excess is shared in a certain way between the insurance company and the insured. Logically and economically it is more rewarding to clients.”

If one looks at the actual statistics, one will see in a country like Malaysia, with its multi-ethnic population, unlike the GCC, most of the participants in Takaful companies are non-Muslims.  Malakaih highlighted that “Takaful is definitely appealing to non-Muslims because of its economic model that makes it cheaper than the conventional model. Takaful has the potential to attract non-Muslims not only ethically but also economically.”

Osama Abdeen, Vice President of AIG MEMSA, also feels that “Takaful on its own, regardless of being Islamic or non-Islamic, has a certain appeal especially due to the concept of ownership.  For example, in the past in Europe, there would be mutual insurance companies … these dealt with policyholders, which had more ownership of the funds, and if that fund performs well, those policyholders will be getting dividends or repays of the profits.”

Takaful is thus appealing because it is based on a cooperative approach, i.e. it is more evident that the policyholder will benefit from bringing good risks from the healthy management of that fund.  From that point of view, outside the religion, it has a huge appeal. 

“We do in fact witness some companies who are maybe not run by Muslims, and not really Islamic institutions… some of them do opt for Takaful covers,” Abdeen said, accentuating that Takaful “has some certain appeal, and that is the beauty of it. It creates a new concept for other segments to consider; it creates more options for the customer to consider.”

Demographic fundamentals infer significant future demand in many existing Takaful markets…

Current and potential growth of Takaful

Like the overall rates for the regional insurance industry as a whole, figures for Takaful growth rates are not very concrete and easily accessible. Most expect the Takaful market to grow at 20% per year. Ayub believes that “the Takaful business has proved its viability in a period of only two decades. It has been growing at the rate of 10-20% p.a. compared to the global average growth of insurance 5% p.a.”

Ayub also pointed to the regional reach of Islamic insurance, as “[a] large number of Takaful companies exist in the Middle East, Far East, Iran, Turkey, and Sudan and even in some non-Islamic countries. There are over 60 companies offering Takaful services […] in 23 countries around the world. Malaysia has developed ReTakaful business as well. Takaful products are available to meet the needs of all sectors of the economy, both at individual as well as corporate levels to cater for short and long term financial needs of various groups of the society.” 

Overall, forecasts regarding the growth of Takaful are rather subjective throughout the industry. Malaikah, for example, personally estimates that “the Takaful market in 2007 was somewhere around $7 billion. It has been growing in the last three years.” In contrast, Bradford finds that Takaful “is expected by some estimates to reach around $7.4 billion worldwide in ten years, up from $2 billion per year now.”

Evidently it is difficult to tell whether the Takaful market is already valued at $7 billion or will be valued globally at around that number in a decade from today. 

Kaissi acknowledged this challenge saying, “There is a great potential for the Takaful industry, but the anticipated current and future size of the industry is highly debatable in the absence of empirical data, what we have are pure assumptions that are being based on the state of the economy worldwide and the growth of Islamic finance. There are models that need to be tested and proven and the burden shall be shouldered by all stakeholders, i.e. regulators, investors, board of directors, management and Shari’ah scholars.”

Abdeen added that “For Takaful to grow you need to have stronger capacity from the front and back ends, i.e. from the direct insurer to the reinsurer; we are not there yet on the reinsurance side. We still have small capacities from most of the players in Takaful … maybe we are one of the exceptions because we do have a large capacity at AIG, but other companies have smaller retention limits and they cannot find 100% Takaful reinsurance support. So there is an area for this to grow well to complete that circle.” 

Malaikah gave his own estimate of what is happening in terms of growth of the Takaful market, saying “We know the global Takaful industry has been growing at an average of 25%-30%.  The trend seems to continue growing at 25% or so.  Conventional insurance, by comparison, is growing at around 5%.  So if you take 2007, as [your] base year with $7 billion and you’re growing at 25%, it will take you three years to double, [and] six years to grow four times. The estimates of growing to $20 billion or more in five years are not that far fetched.”

Seemingly, Malaikah sees the possible growth of Takaful reaching $20 billion in the next few years as realistic and attainable.  Kaissi presented a different take on the Takaful market and its future potential, stating “In the next few years, and with the lack of specific regulatory frameworks for the Takaful industry, the industry shall find itself to be highly fragmented, operating in very competitive markets and competing against well established traditional players. But, it is to be seen that the Takaful industry will prove to be much more receptive to the concept of mergers and acquisitions than its traditional counterpart and as such will consolidate within the medium to long term.”

Also commenting on the global potential for Takaful, Abdeen stated that “Takaful has been established in other parts of the world, like Malaysia and now it is in the UK; so it has a global spread…and it is capable of having this global spread.” He added that he sees Takaful “as more than just a local industry, but rather a global industry.”

Kaissi pointed out, however, that “we find the Takaful operators mushrooming but regrettably some with no clear vision and/or focus on the future.  There are several challenges facing the Takaful industry and that while the Takaful industry grows fragmented, it should be able to prove itself as a strong contender in the local and regional markets in order for it to play its intended role.”

Abdeen carefully mentioned the negative aspects of Takaful, as he believes the sub-sector is “established not on a very strong ground with the right capacity,” adding that “at this stage the Takaful market is going into what I would consider the ‘green field operation’, at least within the Middle East; it has been well established in Malaysia and other countries in the world.”

Abdeen also recognizes the “mushrooming effect of Takaful companies,” that are “opening here and there. But there will be a point where service, capacity, and capability will start consolidating or competing. The next level of Takaful growth is extremely promising, and our company AIG has definitely done many studies and taken this route; this will give us more access to various segments. It’s a very exciting period for Takaful.”

In Osman’s view, “there is great potential for [Takaful to grow] because there is a demand from the clients and this can be noticed by the growth rate of Takaful premiums as well as growing number of Takaful companies” in the region.

To what extent Takaful will actually fulfill its predictions is hard to say at this point, as the Takaful industry remains to be quite a small market at present.

The underdevelopment of insurance in OIC countries can be attributed to a number of factors…

Foreign insurers

According to the industry leaders and experts interviewed by EXECUTIVE, the attitude towards the role of foreign insurers is of a varied nature. 

Bradford says he “wouldn’t be surprised if there are further announcements from foreign insurers that new operations will be established in the region.” He also thinks that “[i]nsurers are locating there because there is business to be written in the Middle East and they have the capacity to handle it.”

As a reporter, Bradford believes – parallel to the top players in the insurance industry – that the role of foreign insurers is not one to be taken for granted in the MENA region, stating “foreign insurers are increasingly setting up operations in the region and that is good for insurance buyers. The arrival of foreign insurers can only stimulate competition, which will in turn bring the level of service from domestic companies to a higher level, another benefit for buyers.”

Nazer also thinks that “foreign insures have the expertise from working in the industry for a long time, and this definitely helps in bringing in expertise into the local market of the Middle East.”

In contrast to such opinions of foreign insurers’ prominent roles in the region, Malaikah opined that their role started early on, and since then they have run their natural course. “Foreign insurance has been the early influence in these countries. If you look at the early insurance companies working in the GCC, you will find that they are Western companies. However, local companies are taking over in terms of acquiring the market share.”

Western companies would thus become niche players. According to Malaikah, they had a role in introducing insurance in the market, but they never had the agenda to carry on developing the insurance market and the awareness and becoming the leader.  Western companies have been looking at their insurance operations as arms or branches in the area, not as main business. Home grown companies, on the other hand, have been looking at their operations as the main business.

In Malaikah’s view, “It’s exactly like what happened with the banks. Yes, they introduced the service, but now they are niche players.” He went on to boldly state that “Now local companies have the full spectrum of insurance services, so I really doubt there is anything else to learn from the foreign companies.”

On the contrary, thus Malaikah, “the Takaful business is becoming the leader and it is the other way around now; we are seeing foreign companies copying Takaful products and combining them with their range of products.”  Not many members seem to have considered this idea, as foreign insurers are coming into the region and finding the only way to penetrate the MENA market is to imitate local traditions and policies.

Abdeen still maintains that foreign insurers absolutely add benefits into the regional insurance industry, as they “bring competition, innovation, talent, replicating success stories of products which were launched in other parts of the world, etc.  The whole world is becoming a small village.  All these are positive things coming out of foreign insurance companies. I think foreign insurance companies who are committed to be on the ground, to provide the service, will definitely add great value to the most important aspect – the customers first, and to the industry as a whole.”

Contrarily, Kaissi said he “would like to see foreign insurers play a complementary role,” as there is “a lot that we can learn from the multinationals in the areas of IT, back office services and support, corporate governance and more. But, the local and regional players are not short on introducing new innovative products and services to their market and that has been tested and proven. Where we lack as regional players is on the distribution side, we are good at innovation but fail when it is time for execution.”

It seems that Kaissi hopes for foreign insurers to help improve the actual execution process throughout the MENA insurance industry.

Saudi Premiums (USD million)

Saudi Penetration

Source: Swiss Re Sigma Reports

UAE Premiums (USD million)

Source: Swiss Re Sigma Reports

UAE Penetration

Source: Swiss Re Sigma Reports

UAE Insurance Premiums by Region

Source: Swiss Re Sigma Reports

Growth of Insurance Premiums

Source: Swiss Re Sigma Reports

Competition – local and global

EFG-Hermes puts forth that with the recent inception of numerous insurance companies – 47 in the UAE and 13 Takaful companies in Saudi Arabia – “competition is fierce.” It notes that the bulk of insurance companies throughout the region are based in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Kaissi feels that in order to be able to compete with the financial might of the global players, reduce back office costs through synergies and increase profitability, MENA insurance companies “should seriously start considering the creation of large regional insurance companies through mergers and acquisitions.”  He further noteed, “The only edge we hold on that front is our in depth knowledge of our markets and that still can be acquired by global players in a short period of time.”

Osman finds global competition for regional insurance companies a definite challenge at present, due to short-term implications in the regional industry. “Meanwhile,” he added, “the regional insurance companies are growing considerably, technically as well as financially. I hope to see in the near future very strong regional insurance and reinsurance companies which are in favor the insurance industry as a whole.”

Abdeen presented more faith in the regional industry and its capabilities, trusting it is on its way to being able to compete in the global market, saying that, “the first step has been done, which is quite interesting, where the insurance companies are capable of writing the risks located or emulated from their region. In the past, most companies had very small retention, and really the business or the risks of high capacity were heavily reinsured. This statement remains correct as we speak at present, but we have seen moves by some local companies to increase their capacity; we have seen companies who decided to set up operations within the Middle East region, which on its own increased the capability of the region to be able, to a certain extent, to write its own business. This is the first step to emerge as an international, global player in the region. So we are still in step one, but as a region, we have come a long way on this.”

In terms of the Saudi market, Nazer thinks that due to the fact all Saudi insurance companies are required to be licensed and publicly listed, that “The Saudi insurance market has quite a mix between local players, regional players and global players.”  To this he added that, “Local companies in general have done quite well.”

It seems performance of the Saudi insurance market, valued at $1.6 billion (in total insurance premium volume), can be accredited to the regionally noted organized regulation frameworks which were recently put into action.  Evidently, Saudi Arabia, as well as the rest of the GCC, will not be able to compete with the global insurance industry until they firmly establish themselves in the region first.

Investing the funds

The issue of where insurance companies are investing their funds is one of great interest. Opinions seem to vary, which may be due to the fact that, according to Malaikah, “Insurance companies are conservative by nature, and do not take very big risks.” 

Concurring with this opionion, Kaissi believes that “Regional insurance companies usually follow wisely a conservative approach to their investment strategies. In the Gulf region for instance, we have witnessed about a year ago a clear shift in investment strategy for some companies divesting from the heavy position they were holding in the equity market to the real estate market after the volatility that was witnessed during the past eighteen months in the stock market. It is anticipated that 45% of the cash available to regional insurance companies is invested in the form of cash deposits and government bonds varying in duration in order to meet their immediate liabilities.”

Kaissi also underlined that “The regulatory framework in certain regional jurisdictions places stringent rules on investment guidelines outside their natural borders.”

Similarly, Malaikah feels that “Most investments are in fixed income instruments, with provisions to invest in equities and in real estate. Unfortunately, we are facing a period now – or at least where currencies are pegged to the US dollar – of negative real interest rate due to dollar weakness, making interest rates below the rate of inflation. This is more exaggerated in the GCC countries. It is really an issue that needs to be addressed. Investments in equities and real estate, albeit in much smaller proportions than fixed income securities, are gaining popularity.”

Nazer’s view on investments in the insurance industry draw parallels to these perspectives. “Investments are mandated by the regulators, where there are very specific criteria that insurance companies must follow, i.e. a breakdown in relation to assets, a breakdown in relation to geographic allocation, etc. Every insurance company would have a different ranking. It depends if you are in a short-tail business or a long-term business, and this is how you would define your asset location and the period that you would want to lock in the investments. In the health insurance industry, it is a short-tail business and it requires payment to hospitals right away, so you need to define your strategy based on your line of insurance,” he said.

In addition, Abdeen believes, “some companies have perhaps over invested in the volatile stock market. In one year there were huge profits, but when the correction movement on the stock market occurred, it had an adverse impact on the investment income. I think multinational companies do invest across the globe, locally and internationally.”

Abdeen firmly feels that “Local companies also invest, [but only] after the regulation processes have been implemented in each country. But in my opinion there should be a balance, a balanced way of investing and regulating because the investment aspect is an important part [of the insurance industry].”

May 18, 2008 0 comments
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InsuranceSpecial Report

Challenges & Trends

by Executive Staff May 18, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Whilst the insurance industry in the MENA region attempts to strengthen itself and widen its capacity, it undoubtedly faces many challenges.

Oussama Kaissi, General Manager of Abu Dhabi National Takaful, strongly feels that “the insurance industry in the MENA region is facing a magnitude of challenges that require the immediate attention of all concerned entities be it governmental or private enterprise.”

He listed these challenges as “the opening of regional markets to foreign players as per the GATT agreement, changes in regulatory framework, introduction of new corporate governance rules, keeping abreast with technological advancement on the IT side, scarcity of qualified human capital, product development and creation of alternative distribution channels.”

But Kaissi points out that the “greatest challenge we are facing is the scarcity of qualified human capital.  We are in dire need to engage and support our regional insurance institutions and expand their reach across our markets in order to educate and develop our current employees as well as introduce insurance to the masses in order to spread knowledge about our industry and stir interest in the young generation to become the future leaders of our industry.” 

Osama Abdeen, Vice President of AIG MEMSA, also stressed the need for education; “we are in real need in current times to educate our area, which I feel is crucial. Education is the name of game. Information is power. This region needs this. The industry needs to face up to the real need of developing people from the region, to give the expertise and the technical-how to grow on solid ground. We have seen some institutions here and there, but in my belief there is a great need for investment in the area of human resources within the region, to create the generation who can carry forward the growth of insurance and services in the region.”

Collective effort needed

Abdeen accentuated the need for the industry to come together and create a “collective effort” to create such educational programs.  More challenges faced by the industry arise in terms of risk management.

Saleh Malaikah, CEO of Dubai-based SALAMA Insurance, highlighted that “there is stress in managing the risk, getting the right resources, whether human resources or systems.  To cope with the growth, one must be on the look out for developments in risk management practices in the world today.”  Similarly, Michael Bradford, Senior Reporter for Business Insurance Europe, feels that “the lack of sophisticated risk management among commercial insurance buyers” is a “big concern” in the region. 

“Risk management is a fledgling discipline among companies in the Middle East and risk management services in many cases are provided by insurers and brokers.  I think insurers would like to see risk management as a better-developed discipline in the region. If risks there are properly managed, losses will be controlled and claims kept to a reasonable level,” he said.

Although Malaikah finds that companies in the region are coping well with the situation in the industry, he undoubtedly believes it is filled with issues that need to be dealt with.  According to him, “one of the big challenges is finding the human resources to lead the continuous expansion that is being created.  Continuous expansion in terms of size of premiums, geographic expansion into smaller cities (into the GCC) and more so into the Takaful industry lines of business makes finding qualified human resources a very difficult task.”

Dr. Michael Bitzer, CEO of Daman Health Insurance (Abu Dhabi), agrees that lack of human resources is a significant problem throughout the industry, saying “we have to recruit not only in the region but globally, and we heave to invest in intern training, specifically because in the UAE, Saudi, Qatar you don’t find so many insurance experts in the market. You sometimes have to recruit people from other industries and cross-train them. There is no one available with the skills you need, so you must invest in training them.”

According to Malaikah, “all the new companies that were established in the last two years in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, are Takaful companies.”  Managing growth of so many new companies creates unavoidable challenges, such as human resource management, leadership, and professionalism.  With the birth of numerous new companies in the last two years, there is a dire need for efficient human resources.  Bitzer similarly states that there is “definitely [a] need [for] more professionals in the industry.”

Corresponding to Malaikah’s and Bitzer’s perspectives, Gamil Osman, Assistant General Manager of Kuwait-based National Takaful Insurance, said that “one of the greatest challenges/concerns that the insurance industry faces – particularly in GCC area – is the increasing number of insurance companies, especially Takaful insurance companies which are growing very fast in recent years.  Accordingly, concentration should be more and more on quality of services provided to the clients.” 

While there has been a kind of ‘baby boom’ of insurance companies in the GCC over the last two years, Ghassan Wazen, Managing Director of ACE Insurance Egypt, finds that “there are not enough” insurance companies in Egypt, and the companies that “can change the market are the local and state owned companies,” as opposed to foreign companies that attempt to alter the market.

Investment issue causes stress

Malaikah also believes that “another area that is causing a lot of stress in the last 2-3 years, is the investment issue.  First of all, we had the equities market crisis in the GCC countries, which started at the end of 2005 and carried on in 2006.”  Thinking he had seen the bottom in 2007, “we have been struck down by the international markets situation with all the recession expectations in the US and the reflection on the world economies.  That is another area of concern for insurance companies [who] rely on two income streams: operational revenue and investment gains.”  Evidently, Malaikah believes “ensuring successful investment is a very important issue for insurance companies.”

Another major issue echoing throughout the insurance industry, as briefly mentioned above, is awareness among the general public or lack thereof.  Many top players in the regional insurance industry are facing great challenges when trying to penetrate their local markets, as awareness levels are almost non-existent.

Wazen believes this is a key problem, as “people are not very interested in insurance.”  Bitzer agrees that “they have to create the awareness amongst the population that insurance is necessary.”  Overall, it seems the MENA population is simply, and unfortunately, not in tune with the implications and benefits of insurance as awareness is not well structured in the region.

Many top players in the region also find that the regulatory frameworks could use a lot of improvement.  Bradford emphasized the industry’s need for proper regulatory processes, but thinks they “appear to be developing in the region as the insurance market matures.” He also added “As insurance penetration widens in the GCC, proper regulation becomes even more important.”

Still, Bradford feels that “it is a challenge for a region that is seeing unprecedented growth and wealth that brings about the need for insurance. As insurers increasingly establish operations in the Middle East, regulators are responding by modernizing regulations. Commercial insurers are not voicing any major complaints with the regulatory process and generally seem to think it is on the right track. Most insurers welcome modernized regulation because it helps ensure a stable marketplace.”

Bitzer even thinks that “The greatest challenges is supervising authorities; I think in the GCC there is a significant improvement, but when you talk about MENA there is the need for even more professional supervising authorities. The insurance penetration of these markets is very low, and some classes such as life insurance are almost neglected.”

 Wazen reiterated the significant need for structural innovations throughout the industry. “There is a lot of work to do in terms of regulations, legislations, and finding people who are skilled to sell insurance,” he said, adding that, “unfortunately, in my opinion, this is another problem,” as it is “very difficult to find exceptionally skilled individuals in this region to sell insurance.”

In terms of the health insurance market, Tal Nazer, CEO of BUPA Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Company in Saudi Arabia, finds that “one of the main challenges is having enough hospital capacity in Saudi Arabia” in order to “absorb the volume.” There seems to be a shortage of hospitals and medical resources throughout the region, and thus the health insurance sector is suffering from this.

Clearly, there are many challenges that the insurance industry faces at present. It seems there is much progress to be made, and just how to solve these concerns is an issue all on its own. 

Possible solutions to concerns

Since its inception in 1964, the General Arab Insurance Federation (GAIF) attempts to better regulate the insurance industry throughout the Middle East.  Its main goal is to meliorate and encourage inter-Arab communication amongst the insurance sectors, as well as to develop the industry overall.  The federation is composed of 20 Arab member states, as well as 268 insurance companies within them.  At the beginning of 2008, GAIF held its annual conference and concluded that the regional insurance industry needed to “further modernize, depoliticize, and integrate more both regionally and globally.”

Another institution that guides the insurance industry towards improvement is the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), designed by the emirate’s government “for the benefit of the UAE and the wider region as a whole. Its remit is to create a regional capital market, offering investors and issuers of capital world-class regulations and standards. Its hallmarks are: integrity, transparency, and efficiency.” Alongside GAIF, the DIFC may provide advice and frameworks for the regional insurance industry to function to its best potential.

EFG-Hermes believes the solution to low penetration levels of the MENA region is, in some cases, “as simple as greater codification of the law, and bringing business practices in line with international standards.”  In addition to changing the institutional framework, “addressing customer needs through provision of religiously acceptable Takaful and Family Takaful will also increase penetration.”

Kaissi is sure that the industry issues “can be resolved by joining forces between the local governments and the insurance industry in order to create a level playing field for local and international players by the way of encouraging M&A and placing tough entry requirements on multinationals so their entry to the market will not stir an all out open competition but introduction of added value in services and products.”

In terms of solving awareness issues, Osman believes that “each insurance company spares no efforts in increasing the awareness of insurance.  From my point of view, the insurance unions and associations in different markets can play an important role in increasing the awareness of insurance, which will be useful for each local market as a whole.”

Abdeen’s opinion draws a parallel on this, by explaining how the industry should make a “collective effort” in raising awareness across the region, as “it’s worth the investment.”  The most substantial way to raise awareness is through education programs.  Abdeen feels “it is of extreme importance at the family level, school level, university level, and government policy level,” so it can “enhance the education of the generation in a focused approach,” in order to be able “to build areas of growth for years to come.”

For example, AIG provides training programs people they believe possess “leadership potential” so they can become “the leaders of tomorrow,” according to Abdeen.  He went even further, proposing that education “should be a country policy supported by the industry.  This is the investment you really need, because investment is not only in money, investment is in people; they are making it happen.  We need more of that.”

Distributing awareness comes at a price though, as Kaissi noted that “to spread awareness in any given market is a very expensive proposition.”  Like Abdeen, he also believes “governments, civil societies and insurance industry should play their socially intended role in spreading insurance awareness. But, it should be mentioned that due to the disparity in the standards of living in our region, some governments should play a more active role in providing the basic insurance covers to their citizens.”

Undoubtedly the demographics of the MENA region provide continuous challenges to solving major concerns in the insurance industry.

New market trends

Trends throughout the regional insurance industry are reflective of some of the major challenges faced by the industry.  For example, one major problem is the lack of proper regulatory frameworks, but now creating efficient regulating guides is emerging as a new trend across the industry.

Regulation as a trend is gaining popularity and importance throughout the regional insurance industry.  Bitzer finds that “regulators are becoming more and more professional, and they are learning from international benchmarks.” 

Abeen echoed Bitzer’s view, adding that the “new trend of framework regulation is a very important one because it creates a framework for healthy growth and creation of innovate products and so on.”

Further, Abdeen believes the industry has “witnessed a lot of changes in the last 3-4 years in terms of regulation.  However, this trend has not yet achieved the desired objective, because if the intention of this region is to become a global player, there should be more consistency and more organization of the regulation across all countries so it makes it easier for regional players to cross borders and to create a strong, solid, insurance market to cater for the needs of the region.”

Also regarding regulation, Abdeen trusts that “brokers play a major role not only in creating the business, but to increase the awareness, and to provide their clients with the best cover at the best price.  That area also needs to be more regulated, to enhance regulations in order to ensure more professionalism and delivery, and that on its own also will elevate the market to the next level that we all hope to reach.”

Clearly, the better regulated the market, the more appeal it gains to outside investors and other industries as well.

With good regulation, international players may find more interest in the regional insurance market.  Bitzer put forth that “more international players come or they take a share in local companies,” especially if regulatory frameworks are well established.

Abdeen reiterated this fact, adding that proper regulatory frameworks “attract foreign interest in the insurance industry.”  For example, “Bahrain has done an outstanding job in creating specific regulation, monitoring solvency margins based on risk assessments, and so on.”

The opening of the DIFC creates regional hubs operating out of Dubai.  Then there is the QFC (Qatar Financial Centre), which is moving towards allowing operations, and has already started. AIG used the mechanisms of the QFC to attract foreign interest, expertise, and capacity from the international market.  Also, the Kuwaiti and Jordanian markets have opened up for newcomers.  On the latter, Abdeen remarked that  “Jordan for some time has had very specific and good requirements of regulation, allowing people to enter the market and also an attempt to organize the market in terms of direct reinsurance, approved securities, and so on.”

One trend highlighted by reporter Bradford is the role of captive insurers.  “There is increasing talk of the use of captive insurers in the region, although the concept is yet to take off.  As commercial insurance buyers become more and more sophisticated, they will begin to understand the benefits of this form of self-insurance.  It may take a while, but it is probably inevitable that captives will become a more common alternative to the traditional market in the Middle East,” he said.

Another trend is that health insurance gaining importance, “especially here in the GCC,” Bitzer stated.  In regard to Saudi Arabia Nazer underlined that “the insurance industry is still a small industry in Saudi, but it is growing quite rapidly.  There are plenty of insurance companies in the market, so there might be an overcapacity of companies in the insurance market in Saudi Arabia.” 

Better services

According to Nazer, “the trend is going to be on competing providing better services to the customer, because the market is extremely competitive.  In the health insurance market, the product is standardized by the regulator; so the only way insurance companies are going to be able to compete is to provide customers through service.  You have one of two options: either winning business through better service, or winning business through pricing which could be a dangerous strategy to have.”

Some industry leaders define the presence of Takaful to be a trend in the market. According to Malaikah, “Family Takaful is the biggest area, for historically Muslims in this part of the world – and at large around the globe – have been shying away from insurance because of the widely held belief that it is not shariah compliant.”  Malaikah believes that with Takaful being fully sharia-compliant, the trend of Takaful and Family Takaful is and will continue to be, very popular in the market.  In contrast, Bitzer said that “Takaful is nothing new,” as “it is similar to cooperative and mutual insurance companies which we have in Europe and other markets since decades [ago].”

According to Kaissi, “we cannot speak of the trends in the regional insurance industry in isolation from the trends in the global and regional reinsurance industry.  The reinsurance industry is more heavily capitalized than ever and we are witnessing the creation of new companies, which will be providing more capacity to the local and regional markets.”

On the other hand, he pointed out that there are many new direct companies that are being established in several markets in the region, i.e. UAE, Kuwait, Syria, KSA, Bahrain, Egypt and Jordan.  In his view, “This influx of new players is due to the increase in oil prices and associated boom in construction which has attracted an inflow of foreign investments.  Building on that, we now have many players in any single market leading to the following trends; low level of capitalization, fierce competition, no consideration for minimum levels of technicalities, more fragmented markets and weak product mix.”

Abdeen similarly credits new trends to the booming economy and the new wealth component emerging in the Middle East. “Personal wealth on its own has “increased the demand for high limit of life insurance, covering the first home, second home, third home, etc. of those high networks. And also, we do a lot of imports in the Middle East.”

According to Abdeen, because of the increase of economy, and the surge of oil prices there is an increased demand for insurance throughout the region. “So, you see that imports have increased dramatically for the region to cater to its needs, to cater for the new projects, to cater for the personal wealth; that on its own has also increased the demand for marine cargo, transit risks, and so on.”

May 18, 2008 0 comments
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The barriers between us

by Paul Cochrane May 3, 2008
written by Paul Cochrane

In an era when freedom, democracy, free trade and globalization are the mantras of the day, there’s a good deal of construction going on that runs counter to these overly bandied about terms — Walls. Or fences, or ‘separation barriers’, ‘peace walls’ or ‘apartheid walls,’ depending on your political perspective, as well as how rigidly you hold to the proper definitional terminology of structure. But we can all agree such structures are meant to keep people out. That’s been the purpose of walls ever since stones or logs were piled together to ward off the neighboring tribe.

Walls have left us with some great historical monuments, but since the Berlin Wall came down to much fanfare in 1989, walls were supposed to be confined to history. Instead more are going up, though none with the aesthetic grandeur of the Great Wall of China. Concrete, sandbags, pipes, barb wire and metal fences, along with the added extras of no-man’s lands, landmines and electronic surveillance, are the materials of the times.

But just as I asked myself while perched on the edge of a vertical drop when camped out on the Great Wall “Why on earth did they build this when there is the natural deterrent of mountainous terrain?” Questions in the same vein can be asked about the Middle East’s barriers.

Unlike the rationale of the Chin and Ming dynasties to build a wall that was practical but also signified dynastic might, the Middle East’s barriers are solely to keep out terrorists, migrants and other undesirables.

There is the 2,410 kilometer long sand and stone barrier built in the 1980s by the Moroccans to keep Polisario guerrillas out of the Western Sahara that Rabat claims as its own. Fences divide Kuwait and Iraq, the UAE have erected a fence with Oman, ostensibly to thwart immigration, and most famously, the “security fence,” as the Israelis call it, cuts like a scar through the West Bank. There are also the blast walls of Baghdad, and the occupation forces’ construction of a five-kilometer long wall to divide the Sunnis and Shias in the capital’s Adhamiya district.

Then there are other more specific walls, such as the one around the tourist and diplomatic hobnobbing hot spot of Sharm el-Sheikh, and the Egypt-Gaza fence that Hamas enjoys breaking through every now and again.

“Good walls make good neighbors” is the oft used mantra to justify such barriers, but the problem is that what are originally intended as temporary measures often end up being more long term. Such was the case in Berlin, lasting 28 years, and in Belfast, where more “peace walls” have gone up since the Good Friday agreement that ended ‘the troubles’.

Walls can keep people out, but as the defenders of a castle under siege know very well (and as the French discovered in World War II after spending 3 billion francs on the supposedly impregnable Maginot Line), all it takes is for someone to use the back entrance and the barbarians can swarm in.

Such barriers not only divide people and stifle attempts to nurture mutual co-operation, but are also an environmental nightmare for wildlife and limit the movement of nomadic tribes, particularly in the case of Saudi Arabia and its neighbors.

Indeed, walls are more like taking medicine to tackle the symptoms of a virus rather than seeking out the root cause of the illness, which in the case of barriers are invariably due to economic disparity and/or occupation.

The Gulf’s fences are not so easy to pigeonhole, especially as the Gulf Common Market (GCM) that went into effect at the start of the year, and which is based on the European Union model, is supposed to allow the free movement of people within the GCC. Saudi Arabia’s recently announced plan to “improve security” along its 6,500 kilometers of borders include two GCM members as well as two aspirants, Yemen and Iraq.

As Ahmad Hammauda, manager of a Kuwaiti logistics firm told me, “all this putting up of walls is not good for removing borders.”

But it is clearly good money, at least for defense contractors, who’ve been having a field day since “the global war on terror” was announced. Saudi Arabia is to spend a whopping $10-15 billion on its border security over the next decade, while the Israeli “security fence” costs $2 million per kilometer, with the total cost slated at $2.1 billion. That’s a boatload of money that could be sunk into alleviating the fundamental causes behind the supposed need for such barriers. But maybe that’s just overly utopian thinking, although if you’d said to a French engineer working on the Maginot Line over 70 years ago that decades later there would not even be a visible border between France and Germany, he would probably have thought you were a sandwich short of a picnic. Or a few bricks short of a wall.
 

PAUL COCHRANE is a freelance journalist based in Beirut.

 

May 3, 2008 0 comments
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Give peace a Jimmy Carter

by Claude Salhani May 3, 2008
written by Claude Salhani

How quickly one forgets. As the State of Israel prepares to celebrate its 60th anniversary this May, the country seems to be suffering a case of collective — and selective — amnesia, forgetting who their true friends are.

During those 60 years, Israel has had to fight for its survival on average one major war every 10 years: the War of independence (1948); the Suez War (1956); the Six Day War (1967): the October (Yom Kippur) War (1973); the invasion of Lebanon (1982); the first intifada (1987-93); the second Lebanon War (2006).

Throughout this tumultuous, and often violent, history, one man has brought lasting peace — at least on one front — to the troubled region; that man is Jimmy Carter. As president of the United States, Carter devoted unprecedented amounts of energy and deployed the full force and prestige of the U.S. diplomacy machine to cement a peace agreement between Egypt and Israel. Working against tremendous odds President Carter succeeded where others have failed. The peace agreement he designed gave Israel its first exchange of diplomatic relations with an Arab country, and Egypt is not just any Arab country — it is the most populous Arab country, and until Saddam Hussein decided to invade his neighbors one after another, Egypt had the largest Arab army.

For that alone Israel should be grateful. But people have short memories. Since announcing his intention to meet with Hamas leader Khalid Mash’al in Syria during a tour of the Middle East, Carter has come under very heavy criticism from Israel and its supporters.

Carter, the indefatigable peacemaker, has found himself snubbed by a good number of Israelis, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who was unable to find a few minutes to allow for a courtesy call. In an editorial titled ‘Our debt to Jimmy Carter,’ Israel’s Haaretz newspaper writes: “Ehud Olmert, who has not managed to achieve a peace agreement during his public life, and who even tried to undermine negotiations in the past” could not find the time “to meet the American president who is a signatory to the peace agreement with Egypt.”

Now, 60 years into the Arab-Israeli dispute, and a half-dozen wars later, most people would come to realize that there can be no military solution to the crisis. Only a negotiated settlement will put an end to the decades of fighting and bloodshed. The former U.S. president understood that problem. He realized the importance of talking to all sides in a conflict.

Unfortunately, many Israelis failed to see the real courage in Carter. They were quick on the draw, ready to shoot down a man who displayed innovative courageous thinking in a highly complex situation. He went where others have not dared venture. He explored peace.

For the sake of those who have forgotten their history, or perhaps chosen to forget it, it’s always worth reminding them that it was Carter, who as president of the United States, laid the cornerstone to peace in the Middle East when he brought together Egypt’s President Anwar Sadat and Israel’s Prime Minister Menahem Begin at the presidential retreat at Camp David, extracting a peace treaty from Egypt and Israel. Imperfect as it might be, this peace treaty has put an end to the state of belligerency between the two countries, and it is still in effect today. And had Egypt not paved the way and entered into a peace treaty with Israel, Jordan would have never been able to follow suit, becoming the second Arab country to recognize Israel and exchange diplomatic relations with the Jewish state.

In fact, had it not been for Jimmy Carter’s initiative to push for peace between the Arabs and Israelis, the visit by Israel’s Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to the Gulf state of Qatar last April would have never been possible. Just as the exchange of diplomatic relations with Mauritania, the third Arab country to officially recognize Israel, would have never been possible.

Many Israelis have disliked Carter since he published his book Palestine: Peace not Apartheid. As Haaretz says in an editorial: “Israel is not ready for such comparisons, even though the situation begs it” given that the Jewish state is “a country which has a network of segregated roads on which Arabs may not travel.” The Israeli daily also points out that, along with the lack of freedom of movement, Israel’s control over Palestinian lands and their confiscation — especially the continued settlement activity — contravenes all promises Israel has made and the treaties it has signed.

Throughout the six decades of continued conflict, violence has only bred more violence. Violence never offered a solution. A quick glance through the history books will prove the point. The June 1967 Six-Day war gave birth to the Palestinian resistance movement. The 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon propelled the creation of Hizbullah. And the continuing unrest in the West Bank and Gaza gave rise to Hamas.

The longer the crisis is allowed to continue, the more complicated it will become. Hard as it may be to comprehend or accept Jimmy Carter’s initiative, engaging Hamas in talks should be encouraged, if not welcomed. Let’s give peace — and Jimmy Carter — a chance.

Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times and a political analyst in Washington.

 

May 3, 2008 0 comments
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Libya’s tyro-tourist oasis

by Alex Warren May 3, 2008
written by Alex Warren

One of the first sights that greet new arrivals at Tripoli International Airport is an imposing portrait of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi wearing his trademark military sunglasses and a lustrous robe. Only a few years ago, it would have been difficult to imagine that some of those deboarding in the Libyan capital would be American tourists coming to see what this enigmatic country has to offer.

Let’s face it: the prevailing image of Libya held by most outsiders is hardly one of an inviting tourist destination. The country only emerged from international sanctions in 2003, after it settled the infamous Lockerbie bombing case, and is still considered to be something of an amusing pariah on the global diplomatic stage.

But for someone like myself, who struggles in vain to understand why more than six million people every year choose to spend their holidays in Dubai, Libya seems to hold plenty of tricks up its sleeve if it wants to take on its regional competitors and attract European visitors.

In many ways, it’s perfectly placed to become the next big thing in Mediterranean tourism. Next-door neighbors Tunisia and Egypt have already shown that it is possible to develop massive tourist industries which play a crucial role in the local economy and create thousands of jobs. Morocco has done the same. Algeria has bags of potential, but for now is simply too unpredictable to attract all but the most adventurous of travelers.

But Libya has arguably more to offer than all of these places. For a start, it’s safe, stable and within a stone’s throw of Europe. It also boasts a staggering variety of world-class attractions. The old Roman city at Leptis Magna is a UN World Heritage Site and even in Italy would be classed as a prime tourist attraction. On the eastern coastline is the Jebel Akhdar, a verdant mountainous peninsula which tumbles down spectacularly into pristine beaches and clean waters close to the ancient Greek site of Cyrene.

Covering most of the country is the Sahara, which is the top lure for many visitors. The vast expanses of awesome sand dunes in southern and western Libya, dotted with idyllic oases and ancient rock art, are virtually incomparable — with perhaps the exception of neighboring Algeria.

And then, of course, you’ve got the Gaddafi factor, which I would personally rank amongst Libya’s most valuable tourist assets. Not only is his face omnipresent in Tripoli, appearing in some form or other on most of the city’s billboard, but you can also buy a whole gamut of celebratory merchandise including t-shirts, baseball caps, posters and even watches. Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but there’s something pleasingly self-knowing about that: you get the impression that if the Great Leader really took himself so seriously, the police would have shut down the kitsch-sellers long ago.

Despite the wealth of things to see, the government seems to be taking a somewhat contradictory approach to encouraging visitors. On the one hand, the tourism ministry has identified more than 60 sites along the coast which it wants to develop with foreign partners, and is targeting three million tourists by 2010. That’s almost triple the meager number who visited in 2007.

Other things, though, make you wonder whether the Libyans are really that serious about the tourist sector at all. Last year, the immigration authorities suddenly altered the entry visa regulations and demanded that all non-Arab passport holders carry a certified Arabic translation of their passport. Something of a communication breakdown ensued, to the extent that tourists were simply turned away from Tripoli’s port and airport. A group of French tourists were apparently stranded in the country, while European cruise ships were even turned back from the port, subsequently prompting the operators to remove Tripoli from their itineraries and deprive the country of thousands of high-spending visitors.

Another issue is alcohol. Clearly, with its blanket ban on booze, Libya isn’t going to attract the Mediterranean party set, and those rules aren’t necessarily going to be eased any time soon. But then Libya doesn’t want to be Tunisia, with its low-grade package tourism aimed at the kind of tourists who don’t leave their hotel during a week’s holiday.

There’s a long way to go then, but drive around Tripoli and you see evidence that people have faith. Dozens of small hotels are sprouting up, attracted by tax incentives and the rising number of tour groups passing through the capital before heading south to the desert. There are Sheraton and Intercontinental hotels on the way, with more international brands expected to compete in what is presently a very lucrative market.

So if Libya gets its act together and provides its attractions with the promotion they deserve — including the Gaddafi-themed souvenirs — then it could well give the more established Middle East tourist destinations a run for their money.

Alex Warren is a Dubai-based freelance

consultant and writer.

 

May 3, 2008 0 comments
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Europe making neighbors

by Riad Al-Khouri May 3, 2008
written by Riad Al-Khouri

While the vast oil reserves of the Arab world are more than ever the focus of Western attention, over the last few years the eastern neighborhood of the trans-Atlantic community has also gained in importance. European Union enlargement has redrawn the map of Europe, and as a result the EU is struggling to determine policies and instruments for stability and security in its east, a concern it shares with the United States. Although broader priorities face the US, among which Eastern Europe is just one, the EU focus is narrower and deeper, concerning internal functioning and development of the Union.

Careful of Russian interests, policies and instruments employed by the trans-Atlantic partners have remained modest, but more recently, consensus seems to be emerging that Eastern Europe deserves stronger Western engagement. On the European Union side, there is broadening acknowledgement that older policies have been insufficient, and adjustment of EU strategies has begun. Thus, the EU is rethinking its European Neighborhood Policy (ENP), with several member states pressing for a stronger focus on Eastern Europe. Could this be at the expense of Arab countries?

Building on mutual commitment to democracy and human rights, rule of law, good governance, market economy principles and sustainable development, ENP goes beyond existing partnership models to offer a deeper political relationship and economic integration. The European Union developed ENP to avoid emergence of new dividing lines between the enlarged EU and its neighbors, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and in Eastern Europe alike. The Strategy Paper on the ENP published in 2004 sets out how the EU would work more closely with Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia, and Ukraine.

The central elements of the ENP are the bilateral Action Plans agreed between the EU and each partner, which set out agendas of political and economic reform with short and medium-term priorities. Implementation of these plans — agreed to in 2005 with Israel, Jordan, Moldova, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority, Tunisia and Ukraine; in 2006 with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; and in 2007 with Egypt and Lebanon — is underway. Algeria, having only recently ratified its Association Agreement with the EU, has chosen not to negotiate an Action Plan yet. Since the ENP builds upon existing agreements between the EU and individual partners (Partnership and Cooperation accords, or Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements), the ENP is not activated for Belarus, Libya, or Syria, with whom Association Agreements are not yet in force.

An interesting aspect of the ENP is that the majority of its members are actually Arab countries, and not Eastern European. However, there is an asymmetry in the Neighborhood Policy between the Arab world and Eastern Europe. In the latter, ENP can gradually advance reform and strengthen the case of neighboring countries to pursue eventual EU membership; for Arab countries, however, membership is at the very best a far distant prospect, and may actually not be an option at all. Thus, within the trans-Atlantic partnership, while the EU will have primary responsibility in shaping relationships with and developments in the eastern neighborhood, the US still seems to be paramount in the Arab world.

The EU and its eastern neighborhood are works in progress, but such is the drastic pace of global change that the boundaries of Europe may yet include peoples in MENA who are not currently “potential Europeans.” For the time being however, the EU’s focus on its eastern rim means that by default America may remain the dominant Western power in the Arab world, against the logic of geography and economics.

For the time being, ENP has yet to prove that it has a significant positive short-term effect on relations with the Arab world, and several EU member states are now pressing for a stronger focus of this policy on Eastern Europe. Regional frameworks, such as in the Black Sea area, may mark new relationships of the EU with its eastern neighborhood — by contrast, new EU policies involving Arab countries, such as the recently announced Union of the Mediterranean, look wobbly.

That concept, which began last year as the Mediterranean Union, an international forum grouping only states with a Mediterranean coastline and involving nine new agencies and a bank, now consists merely of a regular summit of EU and Mediterranean countries, a small secretariat, and a joint presidency. In practice, the Union for the Mediterranean may be little more than an upgrade of the Barcelona process and a political umbrella for the existing Euro-Med partnership, itself largely ineffective.

Riad al Khouri is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center, and Senior Fellow of the William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan.

 

May 3, 2008 0 comments
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So Pacific-ally Lebanese

by Nicholas Blanford May 3, 2008
written by Nicholas Blanford

For those Lebanese grimly preparing for a prolonged political stalemate, you may be reassured to learn that Lebanon is far from alone in experiencing a parliamentary paralysis.

A similar — although less violent — situation has arisen on the tiny island of Nauru in the Pacific Ocean. With a land area of only 21 square kilometers and a population of 13,770, Nauru is credited with being the smallest republic in the world, the smallest island state, the least populous member of the United Nations and the only republic without a capital. The island generated considerable wealth — achieving at one time the highest per capita income in the world — through exporting its enormous phosphate reserves. But the phosphates began to run out in the 1990s and Nauru sought other, less orthodox, means of generating income, such as money laundering. Today it receives cash handouts from Australia in exchange for housing a detention facility for would-be emigrants to Australia.

Nauru’s current political woes began in December with the election as president of Marcus Stephens, a former weightlifting champion and a medalist in the British Commonwealth Games who is revered as a national idol. In Nauru, the president is also head of the government.

In March, the opposition in Nauru’s 18-seat parliament attempted to topple Stephens by demanding a vote of no confidence. The opposition is seeking to re-elect a former Nauruan president, Rene Harris, whose chief claim to fame appears to have been to turn Nauru from one of the world’s richest nations into one of the poorest.

But the opposition move was finessed by the resignation of the parliamentary speaker Riddell Akua, an ally of the president, thus deadlocking parliament. David Adeang, an opposition MP, was appointed the new speaker, allowing him to table a vote of no confidence. But his appointment reduced the opposition’s share of the parliament to just eight seats, giving the loyalist camp the majority. That meant that although the opposition could now call for a no-confidence vote, it could not win as the loyalists held the majority. Adeang, the new speaker and clearly a crafty fellow, then called for a parliamentary session on Easter Saturday — without informing the loyalist bloc. The opposition MPs met alone and quickly voted in new legislation forbidding Nauruans with dual citizenship from sitting in parliament. The result of that new law was that two members of the loyalist camp, who were dual Nauruan and Australian citizens, could no longer sit in parliament, thus handing the majority back to the opposition.

The loyalists cried foul, insisting the parliamentary session on Easter Saturday was unconstitutional and lacked quorum, thus the new law was invalid. Adeang retorted that as speaker he could decide what was or was not quorum.

Stop me when any of this sounds familiar.

The loyalist camp then took their complaint to the Supreme Court and asked for a ruling on whether the Easter session was legitimate. The Supreme Court pondered awhile, then ruled that the session was indeed unconstitutional and the law banning dual nationals from parliament must be rescinded.

But Adeang, the redoubtable speaker, ignored the Supreme Court decision and refused to open parliament. Budget supply bills have been blocked as well as a number of investment projects for Nauru, threatening the island’s economy.

“They have made a mockery of parliamentary process and our constitution,” President Stephens said in a statement. “We can’t stand by any longer while the opposition pursues its self-serving agenda of economic destruction, which is now starting to hurt every Nauruan. I believe the voters of Nauru will voice their disgust at the opposition’s attempts to hold our democratic institutions to ransom.”

Substitute “Nauru” for “Lebanon” and “Nauruans” for “Lebanese” and that could have been Ahmad Fatfat fulminating against Nabih Berri.

The latest move in this South Pacific saga is the decision by President Stephens to dissolve parliament, declare a state of emergency and call for elections at the end of April.

Still, the good folks of Nauru will not be seeing bored-

looking soldiers standing on street corners or manning heavy machine guns atop armored personnel carriers at busy street junctions as Nauru does not have an army. (In fact, does Nauru have busy street junctions?). Happily, neither have they been plagued with assassinations, wars or bomb attacks; although a central police station burned down in March in a suspected case of arson linked to a commercial dispute.

Still, the political crisis in Nauru has earned the island that badge of international recognition for unstable states — the travel advisory from a Western Government.

“The political situation in Nauru is uncertain,” says the British Foreign Office stiffly. It advises potential tourists to “avoid large gatherings and keep away from major infrastructure sites.”

That should not be too hard in the world’s smallest island state.
 

Nicholas Blanford is a Beirut-based journalist and author of “Killing Mr. Lebanon — The Assassination of Rafik Hariri and its Impact on the Middle East.”

 

May 3, 2008 0 comments
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Uncle Tehran wins again

by Gareth Smith May 3, 2008
written by Gareth Smith

With the dust settling on March’s Iranian parliament election, the poll suggests President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is likely to win a second term next year. Belying those who had again written him off as a lame duck, Ahmadinejad can take comfort in conservatives winning around 75% of the vote in an election where turn-out of 60% — up from 51% in 2004 — was hardly discouraged by the widespread disqualification of reformist candidates.

The president’s own supporters formed part of the United Fundamentalist Front, the largest conservative list, which was comfortably ahead of the rival Fundamentalist Front. Ahmadinejad, inexperienced when he came to office, learned from mistakes in local elections in December 2006, when supporters did poorly as a separate list, with little time to prepare for 207 constituencies.

What’s more, potential rivals to Ahmadinejad in 2009 have done little to raise their profile with the election. The exception is Ali Larijani, the former top security official and central figure in the Fundamentalist Front, who stormed to victory in the holy city of Qom. But the erudite voters of Qom hardly typify the wider Iranian electorate where Larijani’s lack of charisma counted more in his poor 2005 presidential showing — 4 million votes behind Ahmadinejad — than his lineage as the son and son-in-law of leading ayatollahs.

Neither did the reformists make much impact in parliamentary poll, although they increased their number of seats to around 50 or 60 (once the second round, on April 25, is included) from 39 in the outgoing parliament. Banned from around two-thirds of the seats, the two reformist parties — Mosharekat (Participation Front) and Etemad-e Melli (National Trust) — spent much of the campaign arguing amongst themselves.

Even in Tehran the reformists fared badly, despite reports of high turn-outs in upper-class areas that usually support them. Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel, the parliamentary speaker and a leading fundamentalist, topped the poll in the capital, and the leading 15 candidates in the city were all from the main fundamentalist list.

Gholam Hossein Karbashi, leader of the Kargozaran (Executives of Construction Party), a centrist party established by former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, blamed divisions for the reformists’ poor showing. “Despite all our efforts we were not able to motivate more than 30% of the electorate… the behavior of the reformists is partly to blame for the results — instead of uniting, they dispersed the vote [by failing to agree on a common list of candidates].”

Failure to run a common candidate in 2009 would probably doom the reformists to a result similar to 2005, when Mehdi Karrubi, Etemad-e Melli’s head and well-known as a former parliamentary leader, fell 600,000 votes short of the second-ballot run off in which Ahmadinejad defeated Rafsanjani.

Across the country, the election was fought mainly on economic and regional or local issues, not on foreign policy, where the government is seen as successful in showing the world that Iran is serious about the nuclear issue.

This is territory on which Ahmadinejad has appeared vulnerable, given that the official inflation rate is as high as 20%. But it is far from clear whether voters across the country hold the president responsible, as many areas have benefited from development schemes funded by the government from record oil receipts. Current spending for the new Iranian fiscal year will be up around 20% on last, from $253 billion to $304 billion.

Ahmadinejad’s message for the Iranian New Year outlined the themes that will dominate his re-election campaign. While acknowledging that his administration has not resolved all the economic problems of the country and conceding inflation was causing problems for “fellow Iranians,” the president promised the government had “an extensive economic development plan” to continue “massive industrial, scientific, research, economic, job-creating and cultural projects.”

He also issued a rallying cry for national resistance in the face of Western-led pressures over the nuclear programmed, emphasizing Iran was “in the middle of an all-out war,” and faced world recession as well as “the bad temper of some of our enemies” and inside the country “the mal-intent of some people.”

US conservatives — rallying around John McCain as presidential candidate — and their European allies have long seized on such rhetoric, especially over Israel, as justification for punishing Iran through UN and other sanctions. Hence, the prospect of Ahmadinejad’s re-election — and possible undermining of the argument that Iran should be engaged — is for them hardly unpalatable.

Continuing the international stand-off also seems to suit Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, who praised the turn-out in the parliamentary election as “legendary,” since voters had “prevailed over the wily enemy,” a reference to western accusations that the poll was unfair, the result being to help but keep the initiative with Ahmadinejad.

Gareth Smyth was the Financial Times Tehran correspondent and is now based in London.
 

 

May 3, 2008 0 comments
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