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Special Report

Women in business: Breaking glass

by Executive Staff July 7, 2007
written by Executive Staff

Over the past decades, Arab women have seen immense progress in terms of education and participation in politics, and have made tremendous forays into the business world. The average literacy rate for women in the MENA region rose from 16.6% in 1970 to 52.5% in 2000. Since 1980, girls’ tertiary (university) education has doubled so that now 14% of young women go to university (compared to 20% of young men). On the other hand, female participation in the MENA labor force stands at a measly 32%, the lowest among all developed countries, on top of which the vast majority of women are working in the public sector.

The World Bank estimates that the MENA private sector is still significantly prejudiced against women, resulting in the bizarre situation that the best-educated women have the biggest problems getting hired. There is still a perception that women take away men’s jobs. Statistics, however, actually show a negative correlation between unemployment and women’s participation in labor. The World Bank calculated that had the MENA region used its female labor potential, the average per capita income could have risen by 2.6% during the 1990s, instead of the actual 1.9%.

With this month seeing the publication of a World Bank report on women entrepreneurs in the MENA region, Executive interviewed six Arab women — all highly educated, ambitious, driven, and persistent and all successful in their careers, some having salaried jobs in companies and others entrepreneurs — on the issue of women in business.

When in summer 1997 Nada Safa, having just finished her college degree in Economics at the Université St. Joseph in Beirut, inquired about a job opportunity at a leading Lebanese finance house, she was told “This is a man’s world. You are young and you have no experience, so I don’t think there is a place for you here.”

Determined to realize her childhood dream, one month later Nada arranged a second interview with another manager. She outlined a simple financial deal: she would work for free for a while and then, if they wanted, they could decide to give her a contract. “I told him it was an investment because I would be working for free during the summer. No risk. Zero capital. They might have a return, or they might not, but they had nothing to lose. I worked for a month for free and then they told me ‘You’re in.’”

Today, at 31, Nada Safa is a regional manager at Banque Audi Saradar Private Bank, one of Lebanon’s two biggest banks. And while she stresses that her difficulties in being accepted among her peers have mainly to do with her age, she nevertheless agrees that her gender does play a role.

Regional Specificities

Sahar al-Sallab, Vice-Chair and Managing Director of the Commercial International Bank (CIB), Egypt’s third largest bank, says that when she entered the banking sector in the mid-1970s it was normal for Egyptian women to work, not just in banks but throughout the economy. Her employers — first Citi Bank and since 1982, Chase Manhattan Egypt (which later transformed into CIB) — gave her the professional opportunities to gain experience, prove herself, and rise in the ranks. CIB now has a female vice-chair, 70% of senior management positions are occupied by women, over 60% of the staff is female and a quarter of the current Board of Directors are women — more than double the S&P 500 average. As Al-Sallab puts it, “In Egypt, woman have been in banking, in law, in other areas for a long time and their participation is much higher than in other places in the region or even in Europe.”

Contrast that with the situation in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. The tale of Nahed Taher’s groundbreaking career in the Saudi finance system is well-known: Coming from a family of bankers and oil managers, and having written her Ph.D. thesis in the UK on the deficiencies of the Saudi banking system, she first became a financial consultant and then the first female chief economist at the National Commercial (Al-Ahli) Bank, which at the time covered a quarter of the Saudi banking sector, before, at age 42, she founded her own business — Gulf One Investment Bank, with a capital base of $1 billion — in 2006.

This is certainly a very impressive career, but at each step she had to convince her peers that she could do it. Some of her fears proved to be entirely unfounded, as Al-Ahli’s general manager and chairman supported her, and the predicted interference from the government and religious establishment never materialized, yet it was never clear if and when a backlash could occur and Nahed Taher was always aware of the fact that she was breaking new ground. She attributes the support she received to both the fact that Al-Ahli is headquartered in Saudi Arabia’s more cosmopolitan Western Region and that today, Saudi government officials are well-educated. As she says, “I’ve never received any single comment. I was the first woman to enter the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance — but nobody commented.”

For 30-year-old Dalal al-Dousari the choice of a career in the financial sector was easy — in Kuwait it was either that or going into the oil industry. Ultimately she chose finance because, “It is the decision-making field. You take everything from the other fields and then make the decisions. At the end of the day you’ll be able to be the decision-maker.”

According to her, some companies are open-minded and actively seek to employ women. One of her former bosses told her that he wanted women in his company because he believes that women are more precise and more faithful to their companies than men. And certainly, in Kuwait there have been female pioneers — just like Nahed Taher in neighboring Saudi Arabia — such as Maha al-Ghunaim of Global Investment House (“She sets the standard,” says Al-Dousari) and Sheikha Al-Bahar at the National Bank of Kuwait. But there is still much to be done and women do face discrimination at the workplace. According to Al-Dousari, “Decision-makers prefer men in certain positions to women. They say that men are more flexible, can travel on short notice, can do late meetings, that women will get married and then get pregnant and committed to their family, and then their children get sick … So they keep that in mind when they decide about whom to put into certain positions. Women have to work to prove that they are flexible, that they can do a good job. They have to put in an effort that is at least double that of their male peers.”

But even in everyday business they are faced with peculiar challenges resulting purely from the fact that they are women. At one point Dalal al-Dousari, now Vice-President for Investment at Amwal International Investment, was managing a multi-million dollar portfolio for an Islamic institution. She did all the work, devised the project, developed the strategy, and prepared the brief, only to learn that the client refused to let her do the presentation because she is a woman, although even after the presentation she would be managing the portfolio.

“So imagine, I had to give my brain to a man, who doesn’t know anything about the project, and to tell him what to say, how to present, what sort of questions to expect and how to answer them — and he went to give the presentation. My bosses apologized and explained that the client had made the demands but I think they should’ve insisted on sending me or not done the project. But the outcome will be that everyone will think that the presentation was my male colleague’s work, because nobody knows that it was my work.” Another time she had to hand

 Financing for Arab businesswomen in 5 countries (World Bank) a project to a male colleague because it involved traveling to Saudi Arabia, which meant that, again, she had lost a great professional opportunity. And, as she says, this will certainly influence the senior managers’ decisions when it comes to promotions.

For Lina Hundaileh, a Jordanian entrepreneur who founded and manages Philadelphia Chocolate Manufacturing Company, since she runs her own business the obstacles she faces because of her gender may be different from those encountered by the Kuwaiti banker, but they still exist. On the one hand, she says that there are instances where business meetings are held in exclusively male spheres — like the Qat-chewing majaalis in Yemen that are strictly off-limits to women — or done over after-hour drinks at the bar, where a woman might feel uncomfortable. On the other hand, despite speeches and grand announcements by the political leadership to empower women, she says they are often nothing but kalaam faadi (empty rhetoric) and when it comes to such issues like electing women to offices the traditions persevere. When she wanted to be elected to the Chamber of Industry, Lina Hundaileh stood a good chance of wining the election because by then she had established a good reputation and a wide network. But she had not counted on the resistance of her male peers.

“Businessmen came to my house and wanted to convince me to withdraw. And I accepted to withdraw because they did it in the Arab way — they didn’t drink the coffee of my father and brother-in-law until I withdrew. And now they are blaming themselves because I could’ve added value.” Thus, even a woman’s long-term success in business does not automatically translate into true acceptance. She adds, “It’s easier to implement decisions in my company since I am the boss, but when I go outside my environment, outside my comfort-zone, I will again face obstacles. Where people don’t know me, I again need to prove myself.”

The two Lebanese women interviewed show that there are extremes even within one country. Where Nada Safa had to work for free to prove that she was good (and determined) enough, and then worked her way up — back office, analyst, front office, trader — to arrive at a level where she is respected and could choose in which institution to continue her career, Rula Abu Daher had the luck to be hired by MTC Touch, one of Lebanon’s two GSM operators, whose CEO believes that women, when given a chance, can do as well as men. After her university degree in Engineering (a major chosen because she had heard that there were few women and sought the challenge) she joined MTC Touch and, after a year of training, was promoted to CTO, the only female chief technical officer in a GSM company within the region. As she put it, it was a meeting of similar characters. “I already had a sense of independence and I happened to join a company that does not do any gender discrimination. Half of the management are women. MTC is an exception.”

About that ‘glass ceiling’

Despite the regional variations, based on different historical experiences and developments, all interviewees agree that there is a glass ceiling when it comes to women’s careers. In a country with a long tradition of women in business, the ceiling is very high, as Sahar al-Sallab confirms, “In Egypt, I don’t think there is a glass ceiling on the medium-level management, but there is one on the senior, the chairman level.” In Jordan, according to Lina Hundaileh, “in the high-ranking businesses, you don’t see women.” Dalal al-Dousari, pointing at old-boys-networks in the region, even says that “It’s not a glass ceiling — it’s a concrete ceiling.” Some companies, like Rula Abu Daher’s MTC Touch, are notable exceptions, since there are led by visionary CEOs who’s maxim is “The sky is NOT the limit.”

Of course, one should not forget that a ‘glass ceiling’ for female employees is not a particularly region-specific issue. Nahed Taher points towards the relative situation of women in the Middle East compared to other regions when she says, “Definitely there is a ‘glass ceiling.’ But relative to the global banking industry it is everywhere. In the UK there is no female CEO banker. In the future, the support will be there. But women will need more experience. Right now they don’t have it yet.”

Must women work harder to succeed?

The often-cited argument that women have to work harder than their male peers in order to be recognized as competent professionals is not echoed by all. Nahed Taher thinks that “it might have existed when I was younger, but now they know me.” Nada Safa did have to prove herself more than others, but she puts it down to her young age, not her gender. However, both Lina Hundaileh and Dalal al-Dousari think that women have to work twice as hard to prove that they are as flexible, as good at their jobs as their male colleagues.

The main challenge is the widespread perception that women’s family responsibilities are preventing them from giving their jobs full attention. Indeed, in the framework of a World Bank report Women Entrepreneurs in the Middle East and North Africa: Characteristics, Contributions and Challenges, to be released this month, businesswomen from across the region identified the work/family balance as the most challenging issue they face.

Sahar al-Sallab, too, had to balance her family with her work when she was sent for training to Europe: “My company didn’t treat me as a woman — they treated me as a person. But that meant that they didn’t accommodate the fact that I had children, so I had to exert more effort, and also incurred more expenses, in order to take them with me.” The World Bank report notes that other challenges for women entrepreneurs are learning financial management skills, finding and keeping good employees, access to capital and the high cost of public services. However, throughout the region female and male entrepreneurs face difficulties to access capital, as banks in the MENA region are generally not geared towards financing small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs). The report adds that, “the situation may be

Types of financing used by businesswomen in 5 countries during 2006 (World Bank) exacerbated for women-owned SMEs, due to lower availability of collaterable assets, gender bias among lending institutions, and a lower level of financial management education among women entrepreneurs.”

Character type ‘successful woman’

Within the particular environment of the MENA region, where women still need to struggle to establish themselves in the business world and to convince their peers as well as society that they are as good (or even better) than men, it seems to take a certain kind of woman to succeed: goal-oriented, driven to excel, impervious to obstacles and, yes, stubborn. Says Nada Safa, “I knew what I wanted to do since I was 13 years old, and I went for it. If I had doubted, I wouldn’t be here today. But even now, I always consider I haven’t achieved anything — I’m not satisfied.” Lina Hundaileh avers that, “There was nothing in my dictionary that would say that I could fail. I only saw success at the end of the road. Ambition and working hard helped me to convince my business partners. And even now I continuously learn to stay up-to-date.”

When Rula Abu Daher became CTO of MTC Touch, “many people thought that I would fail, would give up after a few months because I would not be able to deal with the responsibility and the non-acceptance. But I did not give up — I persisted. The fact that I wanted to prove myself as a female might’ve pushed me more than it would a male in my position. So there was this inner motive that pushed me to keep proving myself.” Of course, this mirrors the experience of women in the business world all over the globe, and is not restricted to or special to the MENA region.

Despite the individual strength necessary to succeed, family support remains crucial since, as Nahed Taher puts it, “if there had not been the strong support from my family, I may still have embarked upon my career but not reached the results.” Most of the other women also received support from their families and attribute their success to the fact that their parents encouraged them to follow their dreams, chose the college majors they wanted, and ultimately provided a comfort zone during their professional careers. But “going against all odds” can be a strong motivation, too. After Nada Safa’s father died when she was still a teenager, the family had to struggle and this instilled in her a strong motivation to “make it from zero all the way up. I had to prove yourself. I had to rely on myself. For me it was unacceptable to fail because I couldn’t afford to fail.”

Not surprisingly then, their recommendations to other young women who espouse careers in business and finance read like quotes from self-help books: “Nothing is impossible.” “Follow your dream.” “Believe in yourself.” “To really achieve anything you have to start by yourself.” But then, their male peers — in the region and anywhere else — give (and get) the same advice, with one exception. “You have to create a momentum at home whereby you get a career, whereby you gain financial independence,” is Sahar al-Sallab’s advice to Egyptian girls. Yet in that, too, there is no ‘cultural gap’ between East and West.

Becoming male?

One thing that all women interviewed resent is the idea that, in order to succeed in business, women have to give up their femininity. Rula Abu Daher insists that she is “keeping the feminine side in me – the way I dress, talk, do my hair. You want to do this proving you can do it by being a woman, not by becoming a man.” Nada Safa, like the others, insists that women are different from men and that there is no point trying to mask that. “I dress appropriately, but feminine.” Making male colleagues learn to understand that a successful woman doesn’t become a ‘buddy’ can even have implications outside the workspace, as Dalal al-Dousari observed. “One can be feminine and be professional at the same time. One still can be a lady while wearing a business suit. I still insist that my colleagues treat me as a woman and open the doors for me. I’ve trained my colleagues and it is getting better. And it even has an impact how they treat their wives at home!”

Foreign Perception

Often, Arab businesswomen not only have to deal with prejudices at home but also while traveling abroad. When Lina Hundaileh went to the United States, “they didn’t believe we have really successful businesswomen in the region. They looked at us as being Arab, Muslim … and I was frustrated.” Egyptian banker Sahar al-Sallab concurs, “In the West I always get perceived not just as a banker but also as an Arab, Muslim woman. They ask me how I got into this position, how my country let me go into this position.”

Apart from the cultural prejudices businesswomen also have to deal with global stereotypes towards women in general. Rula Abu Daher made the experience that, “Abroad, they don’t expect a woman to be a technical officer. 3% of world senior positions are occupied by females — so it’s a world-wide issue. Many times when I met people, they always thought I am in marketing or a sales-person, not a technical person.”

And then Arab businesswomen, especially those in high-ranking positions, are also treated as exotica to be showcased. When Dalal al-Dousari attended the May 2007 World Economic Forum in Jordan she received a slew of meeting requests, many more than her male, and senior, colleagues. TV stations asked to talk to her, CNBC even exclaiming “Finally we have a woman to interview!”

However, this situation quickly shifts, once business meetings start and it becomes clear that those ‘exotic women’ know what they are talking about. As Nahed Taher says, “At the beginning they treat me as a ‘Saudi woman’ … but when they see me and I discuss business then it changes. And Forbes ranked me based on my competence and not because I’m Arab.” Or as Nada Safa succinctly puts it: “In meetings, nobody looks at me as an Arab woman or a Muslim. When you start talking money, they forget the woman or the Arab in the business.”

Positive change over time

Over the past years there has been marked change, even if — according to the interviewed women — it is still too slow. “When a woman is well-placed and has her position in society and her career she can do very well — they are seen differently now than 10 years ago,” says Nada Safa. Nahed Taher agrees and points to a changing economic situation in KSA. “There are two major factors: Women are now more educated. There is an economic need. During the Oil Boom in the 1970s women didn’t feel the need, because they all had money. Now, as life becomes more expensive, women want to be part of supporting their family. The sector is definitely reacting to that. Now opportunities are better: they are looking for qualified people, regardless if they’re men or women. Women proved their professionalism, their productivity, their commitment — also in industrial sector, even into the managerial levels.”

Sahar al-Sallab says about Egypt that, “It needs an intelligent man, a confident man to make a woman rise up the scale and give her the chance even to be better than him on the scale. So if they’re intelligent enough, they will accept it. And they are now accepting it in Egypt. Most of the compliments I get are from men. They believe and want women to be leaders in their own domain.” When, a few months ago, Rula Abu Daher was named ICT Woman of the Year, she says it radiated outward and “made other companies also think about appointing women to manager positions. I hope my experience can serve for others to succeed.” And indeed, the businesswomen are keen on not remaining alone. Says Nahed Taher, “It is my goal to be a pathbreaker and have other women following. If it was only me, then I would not have achieved anything.”

Who drives change?

Asked about how the change should be effected, the interviewees say that women themselves are driving it. As Nada Safa put it, “women are no longer saying they should stay at home and have children, because they can do all those things and work and stay a woman. We can do many things at the same time, it’s natural — we were born like this.” Indeed, many interviewees argue that women are naturally predisposed to succeed in business. Thus, Nahed Taher argues that, “The majority of women have proven to be the best for entrepreneurship — worldwide. Two major factors are in the nature of woman: She is patient to raise a family, to wait for things to grow. Also, a woman by nature likes to educate. So they educate their colleagues. Men, by nature, don’t have this patience.” Sahar al-Sallab goes as far as to say that women have the natural skills to be better managers than men, since “Women are more stable, because they have more compassion and are more sensitive. They can manage better. They are less ego-centric. They are more accommodating, making their male colleagues and subordinates think that most ideas come from them, and not from the female colleague or boss. It is an advantage that women have, if they use it.”

Lina Hundaileh sees that professional organizations, like Jordan’s Young Entrepreneurs Organization that she heads, offer crucial help to women who want to set up their own businesses. “We mentor them, we incubate their businesses. This makes it easier for young businesswomen.” Nahed Taher notices that, now that she and other women have opened the doors, young women are more encouraged to follow in their wake. Sahar al-Sallab even thinks that precisely the lack of opportunities for women in the region, compared to those for women in the West, motivates Arab women not to be complacent and to fight harder for what they want.

However, it is by no means clear if the example of these women is followed on a large scale, or if role models like Nahed Taher and Sahar al-Sallab will not remain exceptions to the rule. In a talk given at an Oxford conference on “Women of the Arab World: Setting their Agenda” in February 2007, Sheikha Lubna al-Qasimi, UAE Minister of Economy, pointed out that, while in UAE women now hold 30% of management positions, 32% of employees in the finance and banking sector are women, and 15% of all professors are Emirati women, this empowerment did not occur because the women themselves had driven the change and claimed their rights. Instead, it had been the government that pushed the women. Lina Hundaileh also calls for the politicians to — finally — implement their lofty promises into realities on the ground, in order to change the awareness of society — both among men and women. Sahar al-Sallab, hinting at economic incentives as agents of change, points out that, “There is a new challenge in that there are now certifications for institutions based on their gender policy, which — if achieved — would upgrade the institution.” She is referring to the ISO 9000:2000 standard that, according to the official website (www.gendercertification.com) aims “to provide tools for creating an enterprise culture where Equality is considered a quality factor integrated in organizational management.”

There are already many executives who realize that women can work as well as men can, and the women interviewed all benefited from such superiors, and unprejudiced fathers and husbands. In the end, it will take a combination of visionary executives, pragmatic government policies and women’s self-motivation to effect significant, lasting change.

July 7, 2007 0 comments
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What’s education without sex?

by Norbert Schiller July 7, 2007
written by Norbert Schiller

When cyclone Gonu hit Oman and parts of the Emirates, it only reconfirmed many scientists’ views that such a ferocious storm so close to the Arabian Peninsula was yet another tidbit of evidence that the earth’s surface is getting warmer due to high carbon emissions. But in many parts of the Arab world — as in Middle America for that matter — such phenomena are often explained away as merely another example of God’s wrath on mankind. Gonu “landed” as many students in the UAE were in the middle of their final exams, but Gonu as an act of God rather than the result of petrol guzzling and an over-reliance on CFCs is probably a theory Emirati students are used to.

For there are three main taboos in local education: religion, sex, and alcohol. What religious symbols students are exposed to in their textbooks are rigorously controlled and the mere mention of Darwin’s theory of evolution is forbidden in schools because it refutes Islamic — and Christian — beliefs on the origins of man. To say that man and apes are from the same gene pool is to cross a very thick red line.

The debate surrounding sex education has made inroads in recent years, “helped” by the unavoidable topic of the dangers of unprotected sex. An awareness campaigns directed at sexually transmitted diseases, most notably AIDS, has torn down old barriers, as has the anxiety surrounding the influx of foreigners — who have to submit to an AIDS test before getting a residence permit — and the fear that Western liberal values will corrupt this still very conservative society.

Where would Western literature be without alcohol — and sex for that matter? But as much as the schools in the UAE like to teach students the Western classics, they face a constant dilemma over content. How you read Shakespeare, Twain and Steinbeck, to name a few literary giants, without mentioning booze and sex? Meanwhile, history books with illustrations of naked indigenous people such as Native Americans or South Pacific, Islanders are still blacked out by a man at the ministry with a thick marker pen before being allowed into the classrooms, while documentaries previously aired on bastions of wise broadcasting such as the National Geographic Channel, Discovery, and the BBC, all are scrutinized for religious and sexual content before deemed fit for student viewing.

One taboo which has thrown off its shackles in recent years is the notion of Israel. Twenty years ago, the mere mention of the Jewish state in the newspapers, let alone a classroom, was strictly forbidden. Israel was always referred to as “Occupied Palestine.” Today, Israel is officially on the map.

But we know all this. It has been going on for decades. What am I getting at? Well, I suppose that all this censorship doesn’t jibe with the fact that the UAE has devoted a lot of energy to importing foreign (particularly Western) culture and educational resources into its society. Recently, the Louvre decided to lend — $1.3 billion can buy most names — its name to an impressive cultural and tourist development in Abu Dhabi. It is scheduled to open in 2012 and it remains to be seen what restrictions will be imposed on an institution that has always prided itself in freedom of expression. Will the Abu Dhabi Louvre be able to show nudity, and will religious art other than Islamic art be allowed in? Many in France feel that the Louvre sold out to the Arabs.

You see, the UAE suffers from a unique phenomenon. Instead of taking two steps forward and one backward, like most countries in the developing world, the Emirates manages to take two steps forward and then jump an additional three steps ahead, sometimes so quickly that they trip over themselves. Education is the perfect example. They have set up an impressive learning environment, with the best schools, universities and the most talented professors money can buy. They have even dedicated an entire mini-city — Knowledge Village — to learning and yet what will be the net result if the hidebound taboos are still in place?

To really educate the population it is important to allow more than one train of thought to be taught and discussed. From the outside, the UAE is a model in architectural achievements, investment opportunities and free trade but when it comes to education the sad fact is that it still has work to do. Maybe the UAE should slow down a little, take a step back and look beyond their impressive skyline to what is just as important.

July 7, 2007 0 comments
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Editorial

The New Middle East

by Yasser Akkaoui July 1, 2007
written by Yasser Akkaoui

With the announcement of the creation of SolidereInternational, Lebanese entrepreneurship can once again holdits head high. Again, it has proved its credentials anddemonstrated that it can grow well beyond its borders evenwhen it is burdened by internal crises and politicalinstability. For international investors know that Lebanesebusiness acumen is resilient and operates outside mainstreamMiddle East rhythms and their commitment to investment inLebanese ventures has remained undimmed.

Solidere International is part of a more vibrant, robust andforward looking Middle East, a Middle East fuelled not byconflict and hate, but by a dynamic corporate vision and thehunger to compete at the highest level, to create newcorporate entities and deliver wealth, prestige, innovationand prosperity. Nowhere has this new spirit been moreevident, nowhere has demonstrated more the maturity and thediversity of the region or highlighted its remarkablecorporate development better than the Dubai InternationalFinance Center (DIFC), the Qatar Financial Center and thesoon-to-be built King Abdullah Financial District.

All are responding to a new wave of private equityinvestors, who are forging ahead in a regional bid todiversify what was a vulnerable, one sided, oil-basedregional economy. These hubs are responding to a newappetite. With wise public sector support and clearlydemarcated policy, they can complement one another and evenoffer opportunities for other similar hubs to spring upacross the GCC and across the Middle East.

And finally, into this new zeitgeist comes a new andexciting player, the Arab woman executive. More and more, weencounter senior team members and team leaders, not tomention CEOs, CTOs and CFOs, who are Arab women and who areexcelling in their position. And let’s not forget those Arabwomen who have made it as entrepreneurs, who have shed theapron for the two-piece and are taking their companies tothe forefront of regional and even global business.

They have all cut their teeth in a male-dominated world, inthis most male-dominated culture. They have shown thehighest level of professionalism, impressive business savvyand the desire to succeed in an environment in which toooften the male ego has been the driving force. They havecome in and shown us that a level head, an efficientattitude, determination and an analytical mind are more thana match for the often testosterone-fuelled bluster of theirmale colleagues.

Not only do we accept them, respect them and learn fromthem, they also make us rich!

July 1, 2007 0 comments
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Return to Gaza

by Ben Wedeman July 1, 2007
written by Ben Wedeman

I hadn’t been to Gaza since January. The kidnapping of theBBC’s Gaza correspondent Alan Johnston on March 12 had madethe strip a no-go zone, and during the vicious rounds offactional fighting between Hamas and Fatah it was virtuallyimpossible to report from Gaza in a meaningful way.

But Hamas’ stunning victory in the final round of fightingon June 15, had changed everything. Fatah had been roundlydefeated, and my sources in Gaza told me we could return.

At the border, the scene, once we passed through the finalgate remotely controlled by Israeli border security, wassurreal. Around a hundred people — mostly young men with asmattering of women and children — were huddled by the sidesof the concrete corridor. There was a strong stench ofsweat, urine, human excrement and rotting garbage. Thepeople were mostly members of the defeated Fatah securityservices and their families, desperate to get out of Gaza. Afew spoke to us, and let us film them, and told us Hamas wasrounding up Fatah members and executing them.

Eventually, we passed through the first checkpoint manned byHamas gunmen, and the atmosphere changed. There was order.And the deeper we went into Gaza City, I was struck by howcalm the place was. There weren’t as many cars and peopleabout as usual, but I could hear no gunfire, and some storeswere open.

We drove by the villa of Muhammad Dahlan, once Fatah’s Gazastrongman, now residing in Ramallah on the West Bank. Dahlanwas Hamas’ arch-enemy, a man who, when he headed PalestinianPreventative Security, had mercilessly cracked down on Hamasduring the 1990s, and was believed to be the point man inFatah’s attempt to scuttle the Hamas-led Palestiniangovernment.

The villa was a shambles. Doors and windows had beenstripped, wiring yanked out from the walls. Everything thatcould be carried away was long gone. Three teenage boys werebusy loading up a donkey cart with the marble flooring.Nothing better symbolized the utter humiliation of the menwho were once the ruthless masters of Gaza.

What happened here is a revolution. For the first time in modern Arab history, a militant, revolutionary, Islamic movement has successfully and decisively overthrown the established Arab order. It was made possible by a variety of factors, including direct and indirect assistance from Syria and Iran, and by a single-minded determination to crush Fatah.

But the victory wouldn’t have been possible if Fatah hadn’tdone such a miserable job of managing the affairs of Gaza inparticular, and the Palestinians in general, over the years.When the leadership of Fatah returned to Gaza and the WestBank after decades in exile following the Oslo Accords in1993, they seemed more determined to profit from the new erathan create a viable Palestinian entity.

Their rule was characterized by blatant corruption,mismanagement, heavy-handed oppression and nepotism — allthe ills that have plagued the modern Arab world. They’rethe same ills which the Islamic movement — whether it be theMuslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the Islamic Action Front inJordan or Hezbollah in Lebanon — has been able to capitalizeon. Hamas proved its political power and popularity when ittrounced Fatah in Palestinian parliamentary elections inJanuary 2006. And it has matched its political prowess withmilitary might by crushing Fatah last month, even thoughthey were outmanned and outgunned.

Most of Fatah’s leadership in Gaza had long ago fled to therelative safety of the West Bank. Not surprisingly, almostevery regime in the Arab world is terrified by what happenedin Gaza, and is scrambling to do whatever they can to shoreup the bruised and battered leadership of Mahmoud Abbas inthe West Bank. They see themselves in Mahmud Abbas, and knowthat the forces that bolster them could, if faced by adetermined, focused, well-organized, and well-armed Islamicopposition, crumble just as easily.

That’s the big picture. For many Gazans, the return of orderis a positive change, or at least a relief after more than ayear of sporadic and intensifying factional fighting.

“It’s better now,” Ahmed, an old friend, told me. “Thefighting has stopped. We feel much safer. The problem is noone knows what will happen next. We don’t know if Israelwill allow food in. We don’t know if Israel will continue toprovide petrol or electricity. Today things are fine. Buttomorrow? We just don’t know.”

And that seems to be the worry of most people in Gaza. Thefuture only gets foggier. It’s a tiny, overcrowded patch ofland that always seems to be going somewhere, but neverarriving. One period of uncertainty is followed by another,and another and another.

Ben Wedeman is CNN’s Jerusalem Correspondent

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The media really are American

by Fadi Chahine July 1, 2007
written by Fadi Chahine

Jeremy Tunstall hit the mark when he called his book,“The Media Are American.” Two of America’s oldest mediaoperators — the News Service and Hollywood — possess a remarkable strength on the world media scene. For decadesthe news-service wires have been and still are dominated by theAmericans and partly shared with Europe.

Although the American slice of the world media pie iswaning due to the growth of the Internet, nevertheless, massmedia is still in the realm of players in the United Statesand Europe. Even today with the internet and the World WideWeb, news content and information is produced anddisseminated by the mainstream Western media outlets, likeReuters, AFP, AP, BBC, CNN and Dow Jones.

Even countries with a longstanding abhorrence for the Westare clients of the Western media. If one is to visit anynews service on a web portal from the Middle East and NorthAfrica (MENA) region, one will find that more than 75% ofnews content on those sites is a product of the dominatingWestern media.

Even smaller and more local print publications the regionuse and rely for their sources of news and information onthese media houses, both in English and Arabic. Majorpublications, like Al-Khaleej, Gulf News, Jordan Times,Tehran Times and others, carry lead stories on their frontpages that are produced by the Western and European press.Even the Arabic press is not immune. Reuters and AFP storiesconstitute at least 50% of news content inside the pages ofBeirut’s dailies Al-Nahar and Al-Safir and the London-based Al-Hayat or theSaudi-owned Al-Sharq al-Awsat.

Although Western news agencies do provide real-time newsfrom the MENA region, their coverage tends to be limited inscope, focusing on conflict, natural disasters and majorevents like the peace process and presidential visits.Insightful and local reporting about the major issuesaffecting regional countries, their economies and businessprospects, is scarce. Analytical and contextual reporting israrer still.

What’s more disturbing is that the American mediastructure, while it sustains a wide array of expressions,has become more concentrated in its control by a very selectfew of large corporations and a certain ethnic make-up. It is inevitable that these corporations/ethnic groupswill have their own agenda to influence the reader, as isthe case in the United States and some European countries.

The point worth emphasizing here is the fact the flow ofinformation for the MENA region is overwhelmingly flowingfrom the West to the East. As such, it is essential forthose of us in the media business to reverse this processand give the opportunity to the people of the Middle East tovoice their opinions, report their news and write theiranalyses for consumption in the Western world in particularand globally in general.

It is sad to see the Middle East with all its riches,culture, talents, creativity, liquidity and intellect,relying on what is mostly American news, discussing anddebating issues that will effect and shape everything aboutthe region. And what’s even worse is the fact that thepeople of the region, whether knowingly or unknowingly, area very active participant in this unfortunate event.

Today, news coverage has to be looked at from a globalperspective but reaching to the local level. However, sincea distinct characteristic of American journalism isisolation it leads a Western journalist to determine goodguys and bad guys in the Middle East based on preconceivedideas and prejudices, or simply straight-out bias in orderto follow a preset agenda.

Most people learn about national and international eventsfrom the mass media — newspapers, radio, and especially,television. Therefore, the media can contribute to conflictescalation, either directly or indirectly. Media coverage ofthe conflict played a key role in turning US public opinionagainst the Arabs, Palestinians and Muslims and in shapingthe current American foreign policies.

The media can also contribute to conflict de-escalation.As such, media houses in the Middle East, publishers,editors and reporters have the duty and the responsibilityto do all they can to reverse the flow of information andmake it stream from the East to the West. We must provide anaccurate view of the conflict through both words andpictures, and we should serve as an example for honest andunbiased reporting by providing both sides of the story evenif it points out some of our own shortcomings.

What the Middle East, Arabs and Muslims need today is anhonest, clear and transparent effort to create additionalspace in the Western media for their perspectives and fornews coverage produced by professional journalists who livein the region and who have the proper background andexperience to provide contextual, honest and fair reportingfor consumption in the Western world. The Jews at-large havedone the same successfully. What’s stopping the Arabs fromaccomplishing this very important goal? We either have thewill and courage or we don’t. There cannot be a grey line inthis struggle. Half-hearted attempts are not enough and willnot work. Clear and credible conviction is required andthose who have this conviction have the responsibility toact and to act now!

Fadi Chahine, is the Managing Editor of Zawya Dow Jones Newswires in Beirut

 

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Dreaming in St. Michaels

by Nicholas Blanford July 1, 2007
written by Nicholas Blanford

ST MICHAELS, Maryland, USA: Lebanon’s woes over the past twoyears have been keeping the Washington-based think-tankindustry busy as the country finds itself in the unenviableposition of being a point of convergence for most of thepressing quandaries besetting the Middle East — theArab-Israeli conflict, Iraq, Iran, terrorism, al-Qaeda andfundamentally the axis of resistance versus Pax Americana.Being a locus of multiple crises is bad for Lebanon butoffers plenty of food for thought for the many think tanksthat cram K, L, and M streets in the US capital.

Earlier in June, I was invited by a leading think tank toparticipate in a round table forum in which some 15 expertswere asked to brainstorm an ideal vision of Lebanon 10 yearsdown the road, identify the obstacles preventing that visionfrom being realized and offering suggestions to overcomethem.

The future aspiration for Lebanon derived by theparticipants was of a stable, prosperous, liberal democracywith a freewheeling economy and social welfare safety net.Whether all Lebanese would aspire to such a future forLebanon is questionable, but it certainly suited thecomposition of the group sitting around the table, mainlyWesterners including three Westernized Lebanese.

Still, the participants were in agreement that such autopian vision for Lebanon was most unlikely given thechallenges facing Lebanon both on both the short-term andlong-term.

Perhaps the chief obstacle raised by the roundtable was howto invigorate a sense of nationhood where Lebaneseprioritize loyalty to the state over loyalty to the sect orzaim. There is a will among some Lebanese, mainly theeducated young, to crack the stranglehold on Lebanesepolitics maintained by the neo-feudalistic zuama, be theytraditional landlords like the Jumblatt and Gemayel familiesor the post-civil war generation such as Nabih Berri and theHariris.

The independence uprising in spring 2005 generated for afleeting moment a hope among young street activists thatSyria’s disengagement from Lebanon would catalyze a generalreformation of the political system, giving rise to a newgeneration of politicians beholden to the state rather thanlocal sectarian interests. Of course, those dreams weredashed the moment the last Syrian soldier departed Lebanonthrough the Masnaa crossing and the leaders of the rivalMarch 14 and March 8 factions began cutting deals with eachother to ensure the re-election of themselves and theirlists in the parliamentary polls of May and June 2005.

Then there were the issues of Hizbullah and how to persuadethe Shiite resistance movement to relinquish its arms andserve first and foremost Lebanese interests rather thanfollowing a regional agenda. How to tackle and eliminatecorruption, Lebanon’s relations with the Arab world, Syriain particular, electoral and constitutional reform — allthese were discussed and debated.

For those of us who traveled from Beirut to attend themeeting, the tensions in Lebanon came with us. On touchingdown at Dulles airport in Washington, we learned of WalidEido’s assassination. We were on our way back home when newscame through that rockets had been fired from south Lebanoninto Israel, the first such incident since the end of lastsummer’s war between Hizbullah and Israel.

Yet the conference on the violence wracking Lebanon was heldSt Michaels, a resort for the east coast elite, besideChesapeake Bay, a two hour drive from Washington.

Lebanon felt a long way away when walking down the highstreet of St Michaels. The stars and stripes flags flutteredproudly from the front yards of simple houses of whiteclapboard and shingled roofs. Elderly married coupleswearing baseball caps, baggy shorts and polo shirts wandereddown the street, slurping on ice creams while gazing throughthe windows of a seeming endless array of shops with tweedynames such as Holly’s Haven and Three Crazy Ladies that soldpricey knick knacks. Huge SUVs that would humble the mostegotistical of Lebanese Hummer drivers ambled along thepristine asphalt roads at painfully slow — but legal —speeds.

Barely a car crawled through St Michaels without a yellowribbon motif stuck to the trunk carrying the demand “Supportour Troops.” Every now and then, a sign along the highwayrecorded that the next stretch was dedicated to the memoryof individual soldiers who had died in Iraq or Afghanistan.In one shop, a middle-aged man with steel-gray 1970s haircutand bizarre orange mirrored sunglasses extolled the virtuesof a new kind of body armor called Dragon Skin, apparentlypopular with troops serving in Iraq. “If I was deploying inBayroot, I’d accept no substitute,” he drawled.

After the sterility of St Michaels, it was somehowrefreshing to return to Beirut. As for the think tanksession’s future dream for Lebanon, don’t hold your breath.
 


Nicholas Blanford is a Beirut-based journalist and author of“Killing Mr Lebanon: The Assassination of Rafik Hariri and its Impact on the Middle East”

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In Name of the Disappeared

by Peter Speetjens July 1, 2007
written by Peter Speetjens

With an eye on the fate of Alan Johnston, the BBCcorrespondent who disappeared in Gaza on March 12, 2007, CNNrecently interviewed Olaf Wiig. In August 2006, the Fox News journalist had been kidnapped at gunpoint by an obscure Islamist group that demanded the release of all Muslimprisoners in the United States.

Wiig related that he had not been mistreated and that hisbiggest torture was facing the uncertainty, the not knowingwhere he was, why he was there, and for how long he had tostay there before being released, if he was to be releasedat all. Wiig was eventually set free after two weeks incaptivity.

Uncertainty was also the word that constantly popped up ina series of interviews I did with Lebanese mothers whosesons and husbands had disappeared during or after the CivilWar. All of them said it was the uncertainty over the fateof their loved ones that tormented them the most. In fact,most of them said they preferred to know their son was dead,than to not know at all. At least, so they argued, theywould be able to turn the page and move on with their lives.

No doubt, the Argentinean Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo,whose children disappeared under the reign of the militaryjunta, would answer in similar fashion. And so would thefamilies of the thousands that disappeared in countries asvaried as Chile, Algeria and the former Soviet Union.

Although there are differences, Wiig and Johnston, and thechildren of Lebanon and Argentina, all fell victim to whatis known in the jargon as “forced disappearance,” whichapplies to an organization or state that kidnaps, illegallydetains and often tortures a person for political reasons.The victim is imprisoned without trial at a secret location,sometimes for years on end. At a certain point he or she maysuddenly be released, yet it will mostly end in murder,after which the body will be dumped in an unknown location.

For the families involved, the end result is the same, asin both cases the victim vanishes from the face of theearth, while the suspected perpetrators deny any involvementand make sure all physical evidence is destroyed. Seeing theexamples cited above, it is frightening to realize that theWest, lead by the self-proclaimed freedom champions in Washington, has embarked ona path not so entirely different.

On June 8, Swiss investigator Dick Marty submitted hissecond report to the Council of Europe which points at agrowing body of evidence that, ever since 9/11, the CIA haskidnapped hundreds of presumed terror suspects around theworld and flown them to secret prisons in countries such asPoland, Rumania, Morocco, Egypt and Afghanistan. Andapparently it did so with tacit support of its Europeanallies.

Thus, Maher Arar, a Canadian of Syrian descent, wasarrested at Kennedy Airport in New York City and deported toSyria where he stayed 10 months in jail. Khaled el-Masri, a German citizen of Lebanese descent, was arrested inMacedonia and flown to Afghanistan where he was held forfive months. In 2003, Egyptian Abu Omar was snatched by ateam of CIA agents in Milan and flown to Egypt where heremained in jail until February 2007. All three claim tohave been tortured.

These cases are arguably but the tip of the metaphoricaliceberg. Marty’s report was issued one day after six humanrights organizations had published a list with 39 names ofpeople, who at some point were in US custody, yet today areunaccounted for. In other words, they disappeared. Despiterepeated requests by organizations such as Human RightsWatch and Amnesty International, the US government refusesto comment or provide information about their whereabouts.

Lack of transparency and disrespect for basic human rightsseems to be the norm for the Bush administration inconducting its War on Terror. So, most Guantanomo Bay “enemycombatants” have still no clue for how long they will remainimprisoned, as they have never even been charged with anywrongdoings. In fact, it was only in 2006 that a courtruling forced the US government to release their names.

Much less reported in the mainstream media is the factthat in the aftermath of 9/11, thousands of people werearrested in the United States on immigration law violations.Most were Muslims and had overstayed their visa. Of coursethe administration had a legal ground to arrest thesepeople, yet most of them were jailed for months on end andeventually deported without having seen a lawyer or judge.

Hence, Shakir Baloch, a Canadian of Pakistani descent,stayed seven months in a New York jail and was only releasedafter his wife had managed to somehow track him down andfind an attorney.

On August 30, the annual International Day of theDisappeared takes place to draw attention to all thosepeople around the world detained in places unknown to theirrelatives or legal representatives. Let us hope that by thenAlan Johnston has been set free and that the United States,as the self-proclaimed beacon of freedom, recalls thatuniversal human rights are exactly that: universal.

Peter Speetjens is a Dutch writer and freelance consultant

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Role of governments in energizing the future of ICT

by Karim Sabbagh & Eddy Skaff July 1, 2007
written by Karim Sabbagh & Eddy Skaff

Most governments in the Middle East are increasingly supporting the idea that information and communication technologies (ICT) can be made available to all citizens to truly improve their lives. In the not-too-distant future, ICT will positively transform how we interact as consumers with services such as banking, shopping, healthcare,transportation and many other facets of our everyday lives.Leading ICT regions such as Western Europe, North America,and Southeast Asia are already experiencing this paradigm.

The Middle East region, however, is still far from realizingthe full benefits of ICT and the path to true advancementwill continue to be tortuous unless the topic receives fullattention. A number of challenges must be overcome to getICT development on a sustainable path.

“The importance in giving the populations of the Middle Eastaccess to ICT cannot be underestimated,” said Eddy Skaff,Senior Associate at Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH). “In order tobe competitive on the world stage, Middle East markets willhave to prevail over some current obstacles they face, whichthreaten to hinder the successful implementation of anenvironment that supports and sustains ICT and its benefits.Governments in this region can play a key role in makingthese benefits a reality to consumers.”

Singapore is the world leader

The latest Networked Readiness Index, published by theWorld Economic Forum in collaboration with INSEAD,highlights the pivotal role governments play in driving thenational ICT agenda. In this ranking, one countryoutperforms the rest of the world in more than one pillar:Singapore. This underscores the “Singaporean government’sclear vision for ICT and the subsequent leading roleundertaken by the latter in promoting ICT diffusion andpenetration.”

The report shows the Middle East region remaining quitestable in network readiness and highlights several successstories with government-lead initiatives in the UAE (29thplace), Qatar (36th place) and Bahrain (50th place).

The single biggest hurdle is the lack of a holistic ICTdevelopment agenda at a national level. The definition of adevelopment plan at a market level is mostly non-existent in the region. This position does not undermine thesuccessful formulation and early implementations of sectorspecific ICT plans, such as e-government.

Saudi Arabia is a typical example where several governmentagencies are involved in different national IT initiativesand programs. The Communications and Information TechnologyCommission is championing Saudi’s e-government program aswell as several other IT sector initiatives such as theInternet Restructuring Project and Computer EmergencyResponse Team to name a few. The Saudi Arabian GeneralInvestment Authority has become a key player by launchingthe Knowledge Economic City in Madinah, establishing theIntel Capital Fund and signing an agreement with CiscoSystems to invest SR1 billion in the IT sector. Otheragencies have also contributed to the national ICTdevelopment.

Similarly, the UAE boasts several government-championedICT development projects. Dubai’s e-government program,launched in 2000, has been recognized as a success story bypractitioners. Dubai Internet City, Knowledge Village, andDubai Silicon Oasis are aiming to create and develop ICTclusters. The Abu Dhabi Systems and Information Committeelaunched earlier this year the Abu Dhabi Government’s portalalong with a very ambitious e-government project. TheTelecommunications Regulatory Authority, for its part,established an ICT Development Fund.

Such examples underscore the prevailing state offragmentation region-wide, albeit with a drive for increasedcoordination. The accumulation of these siloed initiativesmay be creating an inefficient allocation of resources andsubstantive delays in delivering meaningful services tousers.

How governments can promote ICT

Holistic ICT development agendas at the national levelshould be driven by governments through a complete SectorManagement Lifecycle. (1) Governments should begin bysetting national policies for the growth and development ofboth the telecommunications and IT sectors. (2) Thesepolicies would be translated into long-term master plansthat identify development priorities and programs. (3)Governments should also ensure the availability of adequateregulatory and legal environments to foster a faircompetitive market, regulate distribution of scarceresources, and protect consumers and businesses through aset of e-legislations. (4) Finally, government-ledinitiatives will create the right level of readiness amongthe country’s economic actors.

Telecom regulations are typically entrusted to astructurally and financially independent authority, whilesector development initiatives are usually overseen by anempowered cross-departmental program office reporting to thesenior program champion. However, some roles could also becombined within a single entity to accelerate theimplementation of the national ICT agenda.

“Governments implementing a highly structured program thatincorporates these approaches will more than likely seepositive results,” said Karim Sabbagh, BAH’s vice president.“ICT that is widely available will give Middle Easteconomies the very element they need to maintaincompetitiveness in the near- and long-term future withtechnologically advanced economies throughout the world.”

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Tapping into the GCC Infrastructure Boom

by Imad Ghandour July 1, 2007
written by Imad Ghandour

Investing in a water desalination plant or a school was seenfor a long time to be a government’s job. Private companieswere usually interested to build such projects, but wererarely excited to own them. If seduced enough, a contractormight proceed to operate and finance them under a long-termcontract. But the general population of equity investors —not to mention the hyper private equiteers — were rarelyexcited about a business as stable as a toll road and neverhad the patience to wait 30 years to realize back theirinvestment.

But suddenly all that changed in 2006. Today infrastructurefunds are one of the hottest asset classes. Globalinvestment in infrastructure is rising exponentially, andglobal financial institutions like Macquarie Bank havediscovered how to convert infrastructure stability to a veryexciting investment. Private equiteers have hopped on thebandwagon, and creatively managed to make an asset classwith meager IRRs of 8-15% produce returns as high as 40%.Through creative financial engineering, private equiteershave pressed to put as little equity as possible and financemost of their investments through debt. Consequently,marginal improvements in asset value due to underestimatingdemand or improved margins significantly boosted the privateequity IRRs.

The developed world has build most of its infrastructureafter World War II, and such infrastructure is now comingtowards the end of its natural life. With most countries inthe developed world experiencing budget deficits, there isno appetite to fork out trillions of dollars over the nextdecade to replace the aging roads, ports, and bridges. TheUS, for example, needs between $2 and 3 trillion alone torehabilitate its road and transportation infrastructure.

On the other hand, the rising needs of the Chinese, theIndians, and other Asians for electricity, water, andtransportation, after decades of being satisfied withhumbler lifestyles, have put enormous stress on theinfrastructure of these countries. China is building in2006-7 more than 200,000 Megawatts of generation capacity —equivalent to the total generation capacity of the UK — ashundreds of millions of Chinese buy TVs, refrigerators, andwashing machines. In total, the World Bank estimates thataround $32 trillion is needed to be invested in the globalinfrastructure between 2005 and 2030.

In the GCC, the demand for capital to finance theinfrastructure needs has never been greater. By the end of2006, the GCC’s announced power, water, energy, real estate,and transportation projects financing requirements wereestimated to be around $723 billion according to MEEDProjects. Add to this amount a rough guesstimate for theunannounced infrastructure needs over the next decade, andit is easy to foresee the total crossing the trillion dollarmark. To put this in perspective, this amount is larger thanthe total GCC banking sector.

Despite the petrodollar windfall, GCC governments areasking the private sector to step in, and this is creatingsignificant opportunities for private equity players. Themost attractive opportunities will come from privatizinginefficient state companies, where private equity playerscan combine operational improvement to creative financialengineering to realize significant returns.

Private equity players will also tap into theinfrastructure boom through investing in the limitedinventory of private companies that design, build, operate,maintain, and finance infrastructure assets. These areprivate companies like Metito for building and runningdesalination plants, Madares for operating schools, and ACWAPower for building IWPPs. I will not be surprised to seestellar demand and exuberant valuation for such companiesfuelled by regional — and increasingly international —investors trying to tap into the upcoming GCC infrastructureboom.
 

Imad Ghandour is head of Strategy & Research — GulfCapital and Chairman of Information & Statistics Committee —Gulf Venture Capital Association

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Dancing around the International Monetary Fund

by Mounir Rached July 1, 2007
written by Mounir Rached

Last March, Lebanon requested to use $77 million (25% of itsquota) of IMF financing as Emergency Post-ConflictAssistance (EPCA) for the first time since it joined thisinternational financial institution on April 14, 1947. TheIMF’s principal function is to provide balance of paymentssupport, particularly when reserves fall to a critical levelthat could jeopardize financial stability, and to monitorreform commitment that supports use of its resources.

The IMF Board in May approved the government’s request whichcoincided with a level of reserves close to $12 billion,equivalent to 20% of deposits; certainly one of the highestin the world in relation to the size of the economy. Thisamount can hardly make a dent in the above quantity ofreserves.

Clearly, the incentive for the arrangement is two-fold: tohave a solid commitment from the government toward itsreform agenda and to provide assurance to donors thatmacro-economic adjustment are adhered to and monitored bythe fund. EPCA then constitutes a catalytic part of ParisIII financing and (if implemented successfully) paves theway for future IMF financing under the standard and morestringent Stand-By arrangement.

Measures require prudence and governance

The risk to the government is that a failure to fulfillits commitment would engender doubt in donors and jeopardizetheir willingness to continue providing financial support aspart of their Paris III pledges of $7.6 billion in thecoming years. These risks for the duration of the programthrough 2007 are revealed in the quantitative programtargets: preserve foreign reserves at $11.5 billion, limitthe primary deficit to LP1.3 trillion ($870 million), anddebt accumulation to LP 2 trillion ($1.3 billion). All thesethree targets are inferior to the outcome of 2006. A fourthquantitative target is to repay LP 2 trillion ($1.3 billion)to the Central Bank. The other hurdle in the program is aset of administrative measures — “Monitorable Actions” —covering fiscal measures, electricity reform, andprivatization. None of these measures requires belttightening, but rather prudence and governance, and a timelydisbursement by donors of pledged resources. This isnormally the case of IMF EPCA programs, setting the pace forthe challenges ahead. The demanding reform will ensue in2008 and beyond. The monetary program is limited tomaintaining a high level of liquid foreign assets combinedwith a an exchange rate peg without creating an imbalancebetween the central bank’s liquidity injections — emanatingfrom its balance sheet cash losses — and money demand.

In the words of the IMF, “the authorities program for 2007 …focuses on maintaining financial stability and containingthe primary deficit while accommodating reconstruction andrelief spending. Keeping the excise rates on gasolineproducts at the levels prevailing in March will be a keymeasure to achieve the deficit objective. EPCA will thusprovide a transition to 2008, when the demanding fiscaladjustment is envisaged to commence. Then, it is perceivedthat the government will be able to embark on acomprehensive economic program that could be supported byfurther IMF financing in the context of upper credit tranchearrangement (Stand-By) arrangements.”

Problems fulfilling promises

What are the inherent risks then? Certainly, the politicalrisk, very well recognized by the IMF, remains the primeimpediment to government capacity to fulfill its commitmentunder EPCA. First, almost one year after the devastating warlast summer the economy remains in a recession. A nominalgrowth rate of 4.5% in economic activity envisaged in theprogram for this year is already beyond reach. While thegovernment met all end-March targets under EPCA, except forthe ceiling on government borrowing from the central bank,the outlook for the rest of the year is bleaker. June andSeptember targets are more foreboding in the ongoingpolitical stalemate and recurrent outbreak of violence.Attaining the revenue target (a 16% rise by the secondquarter) is very unlikely. And the government is alreadyburdened by rising spending to improve security. Failure tocontain the primary deficit to the set target in the secondquarter (by end-June) will in turn necessitate preaching theceiling on government borrowing from the central bank for asecond time. Commercial banks were hesitant to roll overmaturities in the first quarter, and a change in the banks’outlook is unforeseen. The deadline for fulfilling most(four out of six) monitored actions was due by the end ofJune as well, and with parliament not convening, these(including the budget) are yet to be approved. The reform isstumbling at the beginning of the race; to regain momentumit will need exceptionally favorable circumstances, and anend to the political stalemate.
 

Dr. Mounir Rached is a senior IMF economist and afounding member of the Lebanese Economic Association. The views in this article are those of theauthor and do not represent those of the IMF.

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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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