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Society

Joseph Sarkis- Minister of tourism

by Executive Staff December 1, 2005
written by Executive Staff

Joseph Sarkis was appointed minister of tourism in the new cabinet. Here, he talks to Executive about this year’s downturn, the balance between security and tourism, and his hopes for public-private sector cooperation in promoting Lebanon as a major tourist destination.

E To what extent has the tourist sector suffered this year?

It is obvious that the security and political situation has had an impact on tourism in 2005. However, if we look at statistics up to the end of October and compare incoming visitors with the same period in 2004 – which was an exceptional year – we see a decrease of only 13.5%. This is not a dramatic drop if you consider what happened during the early months of this year. In 2004, we had a total of around 1.3 million visitors. This year we are already at 970,000 and still have two months to reduce the gap. Although the total will be lower than last year, it will not be much less, which means that people who come to Lebanon as tourists or businessmen have persevered with the situation and realize that there are political differences everywhere in the world, not just here. This was especially true for the Gulf tourists, though with the Europeans the decline was more marked.

E How have you promoted Lebanon in this difficult period?

I have tried, as minister of tourism, to maintain Lebanon’s name as a destination and its presence in the market. We succeeded in that goal without forcing it through any major promotion or advertising, as we know the situation is not ready for the launch of a big campaign. So we have used these last months, since I came to office, to prepare our infrastructure and programs to be ready for a better period.

E So it’s been a case of watching and waiting?

Yes, but also taking part in seminars and conferences in the Middle East and all over the world. In September I personally attended a conference in Amman for the Middle East section of the World Tourist Organization (WTO), which had all the other ministers of tourism from the region. I am happy to report that we succeeded in our bid to host next year’s meeting in Lebanon, which is very good news for us. We have almost finalized dates with the WTO’s secretary-general, who will attend, and the conference should take place in April 2006. It will be a great event for us. We are now working on a special program to demonstrate Lebanon’s unique potential amongst Middle Eastern countries.

E Was there any other good news?

Just a few weeks ago, on November 25, the WTO held its general meeting in Senegal. Lebanon was re-elected as a member of the general board, along with two other Arab countries. Again, this is a positive thing for us.
E Has international support for Lebanon’s tourist industry been more noticeable since you came to office in summer?

Yes, it has been noticeable. Tourist authorities all over the world are showing support for Lebanon, and the international community understands our post-war potential. We’re grateful to them, especially to the WTO. Since being in office, I have also received ambassadors from all major western and Arab states, who came on protocol visits but who told me that they are backing Lebanon and are willing to help. It was encouraging to hear that.

E How can Lebanon improve its image abroad?

Our target is to show the good face of Lebanon, not just the bombings and assassinations. We need to show that ours is a peaceful country. I explained many times that the bombings in Lebanon this year are different from all those which took place in other countries. Here, it is a targeted political issue and not the kind of extremist terrorism we see elsewhere. Tourists in Lebanon were not targeted. So I made an effort with the media, two or three months ago, and told them that they should be messengers for Lebanon, that they should not exaggerate in showing bombs and blood. Take the example of London or Sharm el-Sheikh: when the attacks happened there, we did not see TV images of people dying or suffering. And I think the media here have taken this into consideration and will help our image.

E Do you think Lebanon is regarded as a ‘safe’ destination?

Somebody asked me the other day which country I thought was the safest in the world. It was hard to answer because there is danger everywhere now, not only in the Middle East, and not only from terrorism but also natural disasters. Of course this doesn’t mean that we lie down and accept problems, but what is happening in Lebanon has happened elsewhere and will happen in other countries too.

E Are security measures having an impact on tourism?

This is an important point and will actually be the main theme of next year’s WTO meeting. How can we take strong security measures without restricting the flow of incoming tourists trade? Every country, not just Lebanon, must try to find a middle road between these two issues.

E Did the ministry’s budget grow this year?

We are fighting to keep our present budget. As you know, Lebanon has a difficult financial and economic situation and we still have an extremely low budget of about $8 million. Between a third and a half of this covers salaries and fixed costs, which leaves the rest for projects and promotion, which are obviously very expensive. So it is a small budget, as is the case with most ministries.

E Can the private sector help?

Of course, and I am trying to develop an excellent relationship between the private and public sectors – this is in both our interests.

E Concretely, what is the ministry doing to foster this cooperation?

We are finalizing the structure of a kind of tourist board, which could be named Destination Lebanon. It will be headed by the minister of tourism and will have representatives from private sector syndicates, like hotels, as well as other companies with an interest in raising visitor numbers, like Solidere. The board will have twelve to fourteen members and its job will be to promote Lebanon all over the world, as well as play an advisory role to the ministry of finance. It will have independent authority and its own budget. We are now completing a legal draft, which I can then show to the private sector, with the hope that the board will be created before the end of the year.

E Traditionally, Lebanon has attracted mostly Arab visitors. But which other markets have potential?

There is one large and easily accessible market – the Lebanese Diaspora. Lebanon only has around 4 million people, but at least another 10 million live abroad. I want to target the 2nd and 3rd generation emigrants who still feel Lebanese and retain links with this country. We need to send a message to them, tell them that Lebanon is their country of origin and encourage them to visit – something I recently told to a meeting of Lebanese émigré businessmen on Curacao, near Venezuela. I think this whole market has huge untapped potential.

E And to promote it?

We still think that satellite television is the best way to do an international promotion. Channels available abroad like LBCI or Future TV often make a film or a campaign about Lebanon, but this is not enough. We need to go to international media like CNN to get our message across. But as I said, now is clearly not the optimal time to spend money on launching a major promotion.

E In late August, Jordanians could obtain a visa at Beirut’s airport for the first time. How did this affect arrivals?

Very positively, and I worked personally on this. Because of the changes, 17,000 Jordanians arrived in September, which is a huge number. In fact September was the only month with year-on-year growth in arrivals. We also relaxed restrictions for Iraqis, and most probably the same will happen for Turkish visitors too.

E Does the Iraqi market have potential? What about security issues?

In Jordan, there are about 800,000 Iraqis, who have been largely responsible for an economic boom there. We also want to capture this market and are targeting the many rich Iraqis who like to travel. Next year there will be direct flights to Erbil, in the north, and also to Baghdad, so we hope to increase numbers. Security must be weighed up, but a key point is that we have no land border with Iraq. And I think the new security chiefs are aware that we have to find a workable balance between restrictions on entry and the health of the tourist trade. Of course, people are also worried that some visitors might stay in Lebanon and work illegally, which is why we should take care.

E Is Lebanon perceived as an expensive destination?

I always try to put pressure on all parts of the tourist trade, not only travel companies but also hotels and restaurants, to avoid giving the impression that Lebanon is an expensive country. If that happens, then we will pay the price. In the ministry we fix rates according to the grade of hotel or restaurant and we always bear in mind that prices must be reasonable. This is a constant concern, but having traveled so often I do not think it is true that Lebanon is expensive, especially when you consider the level of service we offer.

E Speaking of hotel grading, is there a need for an updated classification system?

Yes, definitely. We are tied to old legislation. But we are actually working on this with the private sector, which submitted a very good draft proposal to us. A specific team at the ministry, as well as our legal department, is tackling the issue, although putting it into force takes time. We would need to cancel the old law in parliament and pass the new one, but we hope to submit the new legislation for approval very soon.

E Looking ahead, are you prioritizing any particular niches?

I feel that developing eco-tourism and mountain tourism is important. More and more travelers want to get away from luxury, expensive hotels in the city and instead go to more scenic surroundings. Lebanon must take advantage of being the only country in the Middle East with ski resorts. We already have the support of NGOs and international organizations who are willing to help – for instance, two months ago we released a new information package to promote sites outside of Beirut, and were helped by SRI and USAID.

E Lastly, how dependent is 2006 recovery on political stability?

Of course, it is dependent on it. But every country has political instability, and I think we need to differentiate between political problems and bombs, which are far more damaging to tourism. I am now optimistic that Lebanon will not go back to a period of war or violence, and that the worst is behind us. But, equally, we have to give all this some time to settle.

December 1, 2005 0 comments
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Real estate

Abdul Hafiz Mansour- CEO, Horizon Management

by Executive Staff December 1, 2005
written by Executive Staff

Executive talks to Abdul Hafiz Mansour, CEO of Horizon Management, the real estate company, established in 2003, to oversee and develop the Hariri Group’s real estate portfolio, about projects in Lebanon and abroad.

E What are the most important projects Horizon has been working on so far?

We have been working on three projects to date. First of all, there’s the project codenamed V5, which will be one of the three most important shopping destinations in Beirut. It will be built on the site of the former Karmel St. Joseph School opposite Dunes in Verdun. While the fragmentation of ownership in Lebanon and the strength of the country’s property law often make it difficult to develop such a large area, we did not face any of those problems. Secondly, there is the Raouche Hotel, which is a 270-room, high-end luxury hotel, which will be built next to the Coral Gas Station in Raouche, one of the last available plots of land on that side of the Beirut seafront. Thirdly, there is the project codenamed V2, which will be built next to the Bristol Hotel, on a 7,000m2 plot of land. This project consists of two high-end residential towers with apartments of some 540m2 each, next to a suites hotel with one, two and three-room luxury apartments. There will be a small retail component that will not exceed 10% of the overall project. We have several other projects in the pipeline, but I prefer not to talk about things prematurely.

E What are the investments worth?

Including the price of land, which is worth between $3500 and $4500 per square meter, the V5 project is a $200 million project, while the Raouche Hotel is worth some $85 million. I cannot yet give any financial details regarding the V2 project.

E Is Horizon Management solely responsible for these projects?

For the V5 project and Raouche Hotel we work with our partner, United Real Estate Company, which is part of the Kipco Group, one of the largest investment companies listed on the Kuwait Stock Exchange. Regarding the V2 project, we are developing this property on our own.

E Can you tell us a bit more about the main characteristics of the V5 shopping mall?

The V5 will stand on a plot of land of about 18,000m2, which is one of the largest plots of land in Beirut still available for development. The V5 has a more than 140,000m2 construction area, which includes the underground parking areas. The marketable area will be about 50,000m2, which will comprise retail and entertainment areas. We are still working on the tenant mix, but our aim is to create a destination area for the whole family.

E We’ve been hearing reports about the construction of the V5 mall for quite a while now. Why has it taken so long for the project to materialize?

In December 2004, parliament passed a new building code, which needed certain interpretive and regulatory government decrees to be put into effect. Normally that would not take more than a few months, but due to the extraordinary events of this year, the cabinet only approved those decrees much later, by the end of November, and they are not yet published as I speak to you today. So, we were delayed by some seven months, as our final concept has to conform to the new code. This was not a problem just for us, but for all development projects in the country. Now we can proceed in developing our concept and apply for all the necessary building permits.

E Without becoming too technical, could you give an example of how the new code affected building plans?

It is mainly regarding basements and superstructures in relation to the exploitable and non-exploitable areas. It will also clarify how to calculate the exploitable area with respect to land where you have differences in levels around the site.

E Lebanon’s retail climate has changed considerably over the last few years. Do you really think there is room for another mall? And how will this affect the market?

According to every estimate and study made on the issue, Lebanon still falls behind most countries in terms of available shopping space per capita. So yes, I do think there is room for growth. We think V5 will form a healthy triangle with the Souqs in downtown Beirut and ABC in Ashrafieh, each with its own character and catchment area. For V5, the catchment area is not only the immediate surroundings in Verdun, which is a densely populated, high-income area, but extends to the whole area from Ras Beirut to Corniche Al Mazraa. It will be the first shopping center facing the incoming traffic from the southern axis to Beirut. We are very confident of the suitability of the location for the mall. To be successful each mall should have its own character and its own specific attractions and magnets. And we will avail such distinctions to the V5 mall.

E What about the City Mall at Dora, the Metropolitan Mall and BHV/Monoprix in southern Beirut?

We don’t consider the City Mall a direct competitor, as we believe that the City Mall shall mainly serve the Metn area. Same is true for the Metropolitan Mall, which aims at hotel guests and residents from the region. BHV/Monoprix is a department store and hypermarket and does not have all the components of a mall. In this respect, the V5 will be filling a shopping gap in the catchment area we mentioned before.

E When the V5 and, in the future, V2 projects, are completed, what will be the consequences for Verdun and Hamra as retail areas?

V5 and V2 will complement and lift Verdun as a major retail area and hopefully increase the character of Verdun as a high street shopping area running from V5 to Concorde Square. Now, Hamra has of course considerably changed over the years, from a high-end to more mid-end retail area. In that sense, Verdun and Hamra do not directly compete and they could actually very well complement each other. Don’t forget that it is only a 5-minute walk from Concorde, and the future V2, to Hamra.

E Tourism saw a significant decrease this year. Are you confident tourists will return in the near future? And to what extent is that important for the success of the V5 mall?

These days, shopping is an integral part of tourism. Look at the Gulf nationals who come here. No matter how many malls there are in Dubai and Riyadh, they still go shopping here. Shopping has become an attraction in itself, so of course it is important to us. I think the current situation is but a transition phase. Given political stability, tourists will return in increasing numbers. The signs are there. The end of last summer was already better than the beginning. Look at the funds flowing into real estate investments that have been made this year.

Now, tourism forms an increasingly important part of the Lebanese economy. The bulk of tourists are not the kind who come for a few days to see the country’s main sites, but rather frequent visitors to the country, including those who have residence here and usually stay for two or three months a year.

E Dubai has developed very fast over the last few years. Are you not afraid of Dubai’s competition?

Dubai is a fact. It is good to have a success story in the region. Lebanon has been unfortunate in the recent past as it suffered from the Arab-Israeli conflict, but we have survived and we have the resources to create new opportunities and a new position for the country. Competition is only a good thing. It makes one work harder and be more creative. So, in that sense the success of Dubai will only help Lebanon.

E So, you remain positive about the future?

We are. We will no doubt miss the guidance of His Excellency, our late prime minister Rafik Hariri, who was an illuminated leader, who in a very short period brought developments to the country that astonished the world. I am confident that his successors will capitalize on his legacy and continue forward. Lebanon still has a lot of potential and untapped opportunities. I firmly believe that the Lebanese will be able to position Lebanon in the right spot regionally and internationally.

December 1, 2005 0 comments
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Society

Getting tourism off the ground

by Executive Staff December 1, 2005
written by Executive Staff

Joumana Azzi

Branch manager at Wild Discovery Travel & Tourism

E How many Lebanese are taking holidays abroad on an annual basis and how has this figure evolved over the last few years? What characterizes the outbound Lebanese tourist market? Is the trend of package tours catching on?

While we do not have exact figures on the number of Lebanese taking holidays abroad on an annual basis, the market for outbound holidays as a whole has been increasing substantially over the last few years, with many people going away three to four times a year.

The statistics on airport passenger traffic clearly indicate that there has been a substantial increase in departures over the years up until the first month of 2005. The year 2005 witnessed a decrease not only in the incoming flow of passengers, but also in the outbound tourism market due to the events Lebanon went through. However, despite the unstable situation, Wild Discovery increased its business volume in 2005, compared to 2004.

The outbound tourism market in Lebanon is mainly characterized by the diversity of the destinations that are chosen by the clients. The main destinations that are most frequently requested by the Lebanese are Egypt, Turkey, France, Italy, Greece and Cyprus. But Wild Discovery is seeing an increasing number of individuals going to the Far East, South America, Spain, Vienna, Prague, as well as very exotic destinations such as the Maldives, Mauritius and others, especially newlyweds going on their honeymoon.

The trend of package holiday solutions has caught on. It is attracting mainly clients wishing to buy a fully organized product, taking advantage of the knowledge and the expertise of the operators and most of all, the price advantage when you book a package compared to when you book individual and separate services. Obviously the size of the tour operator, his knowledge and his professionalism are key to a successful holiday experience.
 

Philippe Skaff

CEO (MENA) of Grey Worldwide

E To what extent was Lebanon’s image affected by the events of 2005? How did the media contribute to this? What approach should both the public and private sector take in 2006, to improve the perception of Lebanon abroad?

Although Lebanon’s image has been hurt this year, I think the effect was disproportionate to what actually happened. Like anywhere, the media always jump on bad news, and whilst they don’t necessarily exaggerate events, they take them very much out of context so that one bomb seems to imply total chaos. The loss of [ex-premier Rafik] Hariri, who was a very charismatic and appealing figure for the West, has also harmed Lebanon’s image there and almost left us orphaned.

To improve people’s perception of Lebanon, I think we have to prioritize both tourism and protection of the environment – the two go hand in hand. I would leave aside superficial things like shopping and instead concentrate on our cultural and historic riches. Lebanon has a unique and diverse atmosphere, which you can feel as soon as you step off the plane; it’s somewhere you come back to again and again, unlike some places where you can virtually tick off like a checklist. It’s like the difference between a poem and a story – you can read a story from beginning to end, but a poem has a certain ‘feel’ to it which can be rediscovered a thousand times. Every foreigner I meet who comes here on business says that Lebanon is the best-kept secret of the Middle East, which suggests that its image abroad is worse than the reality. But it’s impossible to run a promotional campaign on CNN, or wherever, at the same time as there are bombs on the news.

Ramzi Assily

Resident manager, Movenpick Hotel and Resort, Beirut

E What contribution can tourist resorts make to the Lebanese economy? What are your expectations for 2006, and over the long term? What can be done to better define and improve nationwide quality standards for resorts and hotels?

Tourist resorts already make an important contribution to the economy, especially with the local community and Lebanese expatriates who return from abroad during the summer. Resorts are definitely an upcoming trend now. We’ve seen more opening both to the north and south of Beirut, and they’ve proved that a six-month season between May and October can be very lucrative. And once one operation makes money, others will follow – like any trend in Lebanon. I don’t know exactly what’s in the pipeline, but one or two more new resorts will probably open next year, and the existing ones will expand. Our own operation is slightly different, as we are only open to hotel guests and owners of our cabanas, but next year we should maintain the same trend evident since we started. Obviously this last summer was not as good as 2004, but if the political situation stabilizes then we’re optimistic for a strong year.

In terms of standards, quality clearly starts right from day one and the size of the initial investment. But my personal opinion is that we need a better system of classifying hotels, ideally with foreign consultants brought in to help judge star ratings. And although Lebanese staff are sought after in the whole region, our training colleges need to find a better mix of management and technical skills. At the moment, there are only the two extremes.

Pierre Achkar

President of the Lebanese Hotel Association

E How many hotel rooms will Lebanon offer by the end of 2006? Is this capacity appropriate for Lebanon’s needs? What are the requirements for healthy and sustained growth in the hotel industry in 2006? What can the public sector do to better supervise and assist hotels?

We have around 16,700 hotel rooms at the moment. Another 3,000 rooms are under construction and although I don’t know exactly how many will open in 2006, we usually expect 500 to 600 new rooms annually. Next year should be no different. Often it is old hotels being renovated, which are sometimes not included on the figures for new rooms. There is no shortage of rooms, although occupancy rates have been down this year thanks to the political situation. Since 2001, we’ve seen growth of 30% per year, and expected 2005 to be the best ever. But for the first three months, Beirut was virtually closed and all our plans were cancelled. Things picked up during the summer and in fact, given all the uncertainty, it has actually not been a bad year. For healthy growth in 2006, though, the absolute first priority is political stability. As soon as we have that, we need a major promotion to improve Lebanon’s image abroad. In terms of public sector help, although legislation does need to be updated, it is not a prerequisite for growth in the hotel industry. More important is to unify the public and private sector in promoting the country, as professionals in the private sector know better than the government what should be done, and how to do it. I also believe that the national tourism council should be reactivated and funded jointly by both private and public sectors – this kind of co-operation is important for the health of the industry.

Khalil Malaeb

CEO of K&M Health Tourism International

E Why do visitors come to Lebanon for medical treatment? How healthy are the future prospects for developing this niche? Can we expect any major developments in 2006?

Our medical tradition is very important – we have 140 years of experience and this helps create trust with patients. Our doctors are often foreign born or educated, and a very high percentage of them practice a specialty or a sub-specialty. Plus, the cost of care here is about 40% to 50% cheaper than in Europe, with exactly the same quality, and Lebanon is the only country in the Middle East to have 80 hospitals accredited internationally. Compared to Arab countries, the cost of care here is similar but the standards are higher, whilst the market for Arabs taking medical treatment abroad is lucrative – it’s now worth $4.5 billion. As for the future outlook, developing medical tourism is not a one-year process. We’ve clearly been set back by the death of Hariri, who took a personal interest in promoting this niche. One major goal is to access the European market, especially those countries like the UK with long waiting lists. We also want to further promote Lebanon as a plastic surgery destination. For these kind of operations, many people now travel to South Africa because costs are perhaps 50% less there than in Europe. But we can offer even better value – and of course with the same level of excellence. In addition, we’re currently in negotiations with a re-insurance company to actually offer insurance during medical operations – something, which is usually wavered. It will apply to certain hospitals and should come into force in early 2006. Given that Lebanon will be the only Arab country to offer this kind of insurance, it’s another sign of confidence in our medical care.

December 1, 2005 0 comments
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Banking

Freddy Baz : Chief strategic advisor, Banque AUDI

by Executive Staff December 1, 2005
written by Executive Staff

In a broad ranging interview, Banque Audi’s chief strategic advisor, Dr. Freddie Baz, discusses the economy, regional ambitions and why he is fed up with Audi being referred to as the No. 2 Lebanese bank.

E In the latest Banque Audi report, you state that Lebanon was a “no growth environment in 2005,” but that it was able to “avoid a recessionary trap.” How were we able to do this and what if any role did the banks play?

What we wanted to highlight is that we are not in a bad situation but we are witnessing a coincidental stagnation after the high growth of 2004, in which we saw 6% real growth as reported by the IMF and the central bank among others. But after the dramatic events we witnessed in February, it was normal that the real sectors would take a hit in terms of overall confidence and its impact on aggregate demand for investment and consumption. So no surprises there, but paradoxically, while there was this stagnation, the financial sector witnessed a very interesting improvement. Sure, the impact of the assassination hit all areas of the financial sector: stocks, bonds currencies, especially currencies, when we saw great pressure on the lira, but after the demonstrations and the flag waving and the demands for Syrian withdrawal and the UN resolutions, most markets adjusted, showing a high appetite for Lebanese paper. Stocks and bonds have improved significantly and banks’ stocks have increased by 100%. Solidere shares hit $5 but bounced back to $13.5; spreads on Eurobonds decreased after some initial widenings, and the FX markets recovered by May, allowing the central bank to recoup one third of the dollars it used to defend the lira. So we are witnessing a disconnection between the real sector and the financial sector of the economy in which the investors and consumers are in a wait-and-see mode; which is normal. It would have been worrying if the financial sector had been equally stagnant. We are in a two-speed economy. There is a traditional time lag of 18 months in these scenarios. We can look forward to a better 2006, and definitely a better 2007, in terms of real growth and GDP.

E The share of T-bills and Lebanese sovereign debt in the portfolios of Lebanese banks remained high in 2005. Will Lebanese banks ever break out of their lending cycle to the government and embark on a fully-fledged retail and corporate banking culture?

You ask the question as if the banks only lend to the public sector and not the private sector. Let me tell you that the consolidated lending portfolio to the private sector is almost equal to the GDP. This is the highest exposure in the emerging markets. The South East Asian Banks in the late 1990s were never exposed like us. They were at 65% to 80% of GDP. We are at 100% of GDP in terms of consolidated private sector loans. We are not under-lending. This is a misconception. Because of our funding which is three times GDP we are obliged to use it for alternative uses, we just can’t lend it all to the private sector. That would make our private sector be lending three-times the GDP, which is unacceptable by any standards. For us to increase our private sector loan exposure the economy should grow. We believe the actual size of the economy, which is measured by GDP, is not a reflection of its potential size which we believe to be higher by a minimum of 40%. If we assume the actual GDP to be around $20 billion, the potential GDP would be close to $30 billion, probably $28 billion. If the environment is there to narrow the gap between actual and potential GDP, then, while our level of exposure will remain the same, that is “1 x GDP,” there will be room for an additional $8 billion of lending to the private sector.

E But surely we have a chicken and the egg scenario. What comes first, the funding or the growth?

I see your point, but in Lebanon auto financing ratios are very high, so we have to start seeing investors putting their own money first and then we will lend. Together we will trigger GDP growth rates. So it is up to the investors to show their own commitment by putting their own funds on the table and we will support them. However, I want to stress that Banque Audi has been active in its corporate lending in 2005.

E Are there any sectors with potential that you are watching with interest?

We are not a development bank. We are a private bank. We do not look at sectors of activity with a high leverage on growth, but we lend our money where we believe there is wealth, where risk is limited in the nature of the business and more importantly where there is a contribution of the company to the generation of wealth in Lebanon and the GDP. When we lend to the private sector, we lend to medium to big enterprises which in the case of Lebanon, the top 100 companies probably generate 75% of GDP. This lending is more secured than to smaller companies and while they should not be neglected, they will not get a higher share of lending than their contribution to the generation of wealth in the country.

E Banque Audi is still ranked No. 2 in terms of assets and deposits. Is the bank satisfied with its performance this year?

You say No. 2. Yes it is true in terms of absolute figures, but what does a differential of $200 million on a basis of $11 billion [of assets]? It’s not even 2% and this is the difference between the top two banks, which is how I like to refer to us.

E Well you are ranked first in other areas.

Of course, we are first in terms of lending to the private sector. We have to highlight it and show our commitment to the domestic economy. Our job is not just to collect deposits and buy securities. We are first in terms of footings. We are first in loans. We are first in Tier One capital and this is as important as total capital. Rating agencies base their calculations on Tier One capital.

E Then what are the areas you would want to address in 2006? What are the plans for revenue diversification and regional expansion? Which areas of banking appear most promising?

I believe we have the best revenue diversification, not only among our direct peers but in the whole industry and this did not happen overnight. It is the result of a huge restructuring launched in 1995, diversifying our business lines to diversify our assets and sources of income to improve our immunity against any reversal trends. We launched retail banking and private banking capital market activities. To do so, we triggered the consolidation process in the Lebanese banking sector. We closed five acquisitions. We improved our human capital. Today 52% of our staff are university graduates, 15% are MBAs and we have 15 PhDs. We launched the first GDR in the region, the first five-year private euro bonds in the region in 1995, and 1997; a ten-year subordinated note issue, a ten-year euro CD issue and four preferred share issues. In the last four years, we have witnessed an average growth rate in our assets and earnings of 30% per year. So our restructuring allowed us to consolidate our market positioning and to ensure a higher asset and profit growth rate than our direct peers. More importantly, if you look to the breakdown of our income, over different businesses we have a much better balanced breakdown today than any of our peers whereby non-interest income is 45% of total income. This is our immunity against reversal trends and it comes from private banking, bancassurance, and capital market activities. In the last four years, our trading floor has seen a turnover of $4.5 billion. We are the most important market maker on Lebanese stocks and bonds.

E Moving onto regional expansion, how were Banque Audi’s plans for a Syrian banking operation developing in the last quarter of 2005? What is the outlook for 2006, given the uncertain political situation in that country? And what are Banque Audi’s ambitions for the Egyptian market?

Firstly, I would like to give a brief preamble because our activities are not just restricted to those two markets. Our internal restructuring, which translated into high asset growth rates, led Banque Audi to a size today of $11 billion in terms of assets. This is $880 million in equity, $15 billion of footings and we represent 55% of Lebanon’s GDP and when you reach such an important size in the local market you have to go beyond boundaries because you have become too big for your country. We wanted to continue this growth by developing new markets rather than new business lines. First, we went into Jordan where we were granted a license for ten branches. Seven are operational and in 2006, they will all be operational. It doesn’t mean we can’t open more in future. What is of interest is that after 14 months in Jordan, we could build $300 million of assets, which is higher than the size of many operating banks in Jordan who have been there years longer than us, in some cases ten years. We had a good business plan that we will duplicate for all the other markets in which we want to expand.

E Including Syria?

In Syria we launched our operation in September [2004], but there was some delay because we were the first to apply … [and] we decided within the course of the application to double our capital and it took us back to the beginning of the process. We have four branches that are almost ready and we want to build a substantial network in Syria with 30 branches within a short period. It’s too early to give you figures but all I can say is that we are very optimistic. Now, given the [political] concern you expressed, we have not felt it on the ground. It is as if the business community is disconnected from politics. It does not mean that they are not part of the country but life does not stop. Sanctions we believe will not target the Syrians as a whole. We believe there is an immunity concerning business but any unforeseen dramatic developments will have a limited impact on the overall turnover and not diminish overall opportunities. Anyway, the stories of substantial Syrian withdrawals from Lebanese banks are not very accurate and we certainly did not witness this phenomenon at Banque Audi.

E Moving to Egypt, Banque Audi is understood to be one of six potential buyers for the Cairo and Far East Bank. The Egyptian central bank has given the go-ahead for Audi to conduct due diligence on this bank. What are Audi’s ambitions for the Egyptian market?

Before [answering] that I would like to add that three months ago we have been granted a fully-fledged license for Iraq, among the eight licenses that have been granted so far and we have a plan to open in Iraq in the north.

E How soon?

Definitely in 2006. Now in Egypt it is true that so far, we have not succeeded with an acquisition, but I would like to remind you that Audi put in a bid on the Egyptian American Bank in 2003, but it didn’t materialize because there was a new law that made medium-sized banks very expensive in Egypt and consequently they have not become very interesting for us. Today we are looking for platforms to grow organically in Egypt and Cairo and Far East Bank is one that we are looking at but there are three or four others too. We will try to close what is the best deal for Audi, not necessarily Cairo and Far East Bank but that is the bank that is in the news.

E Are there other areas Audi is looking at?

We are looking at certain North African countries as well as niche roles we can play in the Gulf markets, especially in corporate finance and private banking where [Lebanese bankers] have strengths. We have limitations and this is the only area where we can compete. To try to be competitive in retail or commercial banking [within the GCC] is impossible.

E How important is trust in the sector for international confidence in Lebanon as a receiver of financial aid especially with a donor conference looming?

It is an important asset but whenever the donors meet it has nothing to do with the private companies in this country. But as long as you have strong and well-established financial institutions, it will improve the overall perception of the country. A country with a solid financial sector has more of a reason to ask for assistance but it is not directly related; we are talking about public versus private. We have a banking sector that endured two decades of war and a time when we had two governments but one central bank – the central bank was never divided.

E How important is any national reform program to the banking sector?

Anything, which will improve the overall efficiency of the economy, is welcomed by the banking sector because at the end of the day we are organically linked to the economy. Reform – economic, financial, and political – by definition improves the overall efficiency of the economy. Privatization will improve efficiency. Look at how deteriorated the service [of cellphones] is nowadays. Such a weak level of quality although [the cellphone sector] is managed by two private companies. They are not motivated.

E With Basel II looming can we see an eventual consolidation of the banking sector?

Not at the level of big banks because we are over capitalized. But it will affect a certain number of middle sized or small banks but this is a positive trend because we need to further consolidate. As far as I am concerned, we have not yet really witnessed real consolidation in Lebanon although the number of banks has dropped by around 25 or thereabouts. Real consolidation is not lobsters eating shrimps; it is lobsters eating lobsters, more mega mergers between the big banks to be able to compete with big international banks in a post [peace] settlement era. I think within the top 10 banks there is a potential for three mega mergers.

E To be more robust regionally?

Of course! You have banks like NTB, Arab Bank or NBK from Kuwait with equity amounting to the consolidated equity of the Lebanese banking sector.

December 1, 2005 0 comments
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Money Matters

Spending by Jordanian Visitors on the increase

by Executive Staff November 25, 2005
written by Executive Staff

Significant Increase of Tourists from Jordan

Statistics released by the Ministry of Tourism show a dramatic increase in the number of Jordanian visitors to Lebanon, due to the easing of the visa requirement that came into effect in June 2005. During the June-September period, the number of Jordanians tourists rose by 82% compared to the corresponding period in 2004.

Tax Free Spending by Jordanians on the increase 

The increase in inbound tourists corresponded with a significant rise in spending by Jordanian tourists during the June-September period. It peaked in July, when spending increased by 48% compared to July 2004. With regard to ranking of top spenders by nationality, in the June-September period Jordanians came in fifth place after Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Jordan climbed one spot, up from sixth position for the corresponding period in 2004.

Once the number of Jordanian visitors started increasing in June 2005, a rise in the number of Tax Free shopping transactions was anticipated. In July 2005, the number of transactions exceeded last year’s figure by 14% and it steadily increased until September when it reached as high as 101%.     

The rise in Tax Free shopping transactions, however, did not always correspond with an increase in spending in monetary terms. For example, in July 2005 the number of transactions rose by 14% and spending increased by 48% compared to the same period in 2004. Then in September 2005, the number of transactions rose by a staggering 101% but spending rose by just 26% compared to the same period in 2004. It is therefore safe to conclude that the subsequent rise in transactions indicates a greater awareness about Tax Free shopping by Jordanian tourists.

Preferred products among Jordanians:

The preferred product category among Jordanian tourists was fashion and clothing, which accounted for 77% of their total spending in the June-September 2005 period. Home and garden items follow with a 10% share. Interestingly, watches accounted for just 2% of their total spending, down eight percentage points from the 10% share it constituted for the corresponding period in 2004. 

November 25, 2005 0 comments
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Money Matters

International Markets

by David Rosenberg November 25, 2005
written by David Rosenberg

• We are now convinced that the Federal Reserve is going to tighten through year-end and into 2006, and we have raised our funds forecast from 4% to a peak of 4.5%. We’ve done so even though we think that inflation worries are overdone. Moreover, because of that view, we are not turning bearish on long-term bonds.

• The recently released FOMC minutes were on the hawkish side, and we certainly did notice the plural in the comment “further rate increases probably would be required” to “contain inflationary pressures.” The Fed sees Katrina’s effect as temporary when it comes to growth, but longer-lasting when it comes to underlying inflation. The minutes were also sprinkled with concerns about fiscal policy and its inflationary implications. In addition, Fed staff economists raised their forecast of both growth and core inflation for 2006 (the former reflecting the rebuilding effort, the latter reflecting the spillover from higher energy prices).

• Almost a year ago, we published a report that acknowledged that we may be too light on our Fed funds forecast. We went back over the past three decades to see what the market and macro landscape looked like when the Fed was done tightening, and we came up with a checklist. So far, only two of the 10 indicators on that list are in areas that, in the past, pushed the Fed to the sidelines; the yield curve is very flat, and the VIX is 60% above its low. Three more indications are headed in that direction: retail sales need to be flat-to-down for two months (but the data have to be clean), industrial production has to be flat-to-negative for three months, and commodity prices need to have peaked or rolled over. The jury is still out on the other five indicators: non-farm payroll gains below 100,000 for three months, the ISM index at 50 or less, real GDP growth below 3% for two quarter or more, Baa credit spreads around 50 basis points, and the stock market down by about 15%.

• Any central bank that can hike rates – and hint at further increases – after an unprecedented two-month 20-point slide in consumer sentiment obviously has a long list of concerns. Among them are the excesses in the housing and mortgage market, investors’ complacency about risk, fiscal largesse, the pass-through of high energy costs to core inflation, rising unit labor costs, heightened inflation expectations, tightening labor markets, and the possibility that the output gap has closed.

• Perhaps the timing of Chairman Greenspan’s retirement is also playing a role in the Fed’s unwillingness to pause. That is pure conjecture, but it may be that Mr. Greenspan wants to defend his reputation as an inflation-slayer and eliminate the term “Greenspan put” from the investment lexicon. Another point: the impending change at the helm of the Fed may be adding to the prospect that more tightening lies ahead. How? The record shows that a new chairman follows his predecessor’s policy about 75% of the time. Or maybe—just maybe— the Fed wants to be out of the picture by the time Congress hits the campaign trail for the 2006 elections; if that is so, it would mean that the Fed would do more now rather than later.

• Our Taylor Rule model says that a funds rate of 3.5% is justified now in view of the size of the output gap, core inflation, and real interest-rate proxies. Even so, the Fed has already gone beyond that and is moving into the same “overshoot” territory that it reached in the past. In fact, the historical record shows that the Fed has typically overshot neutral by 200 basis points, based on the funds-rate peak benchmarked against our fair-value Taylor Rule estimate. We cannot see how the inflation or growth picture gives the Fed any reason to go that far.

• It may be that today’s potent combination of factors—the housing market’s “froth,” the bond market’s “conundrum,” fiscal concerns, the current-account deficit, Katrina-related stimulus, and the potential that high energy costs will feed through to general inflation—means that monetary policy has to look beyond the classic Taylor Rule. After all, the Taylor Rule relies heavily on the output gap estimate, which Fed Governor Kohn basically said was no longer a particularly reliable predictor of inflation. Overshoot? Inversion? Could Be.

• With that in mind, we may have to consider the possibility that a classic overshoot is in the cards. That is not to be taken lightly. In our view, it would necessarily entail an inversion of the yield curve. During the past three decades, the Fed has tightened on eight occasions, and when it did, the yield curve inverted five times. Each time there was an inversion, the economy fell into a recession. We would recommend watching the two-to-five-year part of the Treasury curve; in the past, it has shown an uncanny ability to lead the entire curve into an inversion. Right now, it is only a few basis points away.

• The risks that would spring from a policy mistake are not trivial. However, it almost sounds as if Mr. Greenspan is ready to accept those risks. Recall what he said in his closing remarks at Jackson Hole in August: “Surely difficult times lie ahead for the Fed, some undoubtedly of our own making, and others that will be thrust on us by market or other forces” [emphasis added]. By the time we see the “thrust,” most or all of the 10 conditions on our Fed checklist will probably have been met. The question is when. The answer, at least for now, is the first quarter of 2006.

David Rosenberg

North American Economist, MLPF&S

November 25, 2005 0 comments
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Case StudyUncategorized

Taha Mikati

by Executive Staff November 25, 2005
written by Executive Staff

Taha Mikati is the founder of Investcom. He began building businesses in 1979 after founding a successful construction business called ACC in Abu Dhabi. His knowledge of the construction industry was based on his experience as a civil engineer. According to his PR Company In London, Taha Mikati decided to sell his share in ACC in 1992 “to focus his energies elsewhere.” Then it goes onto say that Taha Mikati “identified the opportunity to develop a high quality telephone service provider in developing, under-penetrated high growth mobile telecom markets. He founded Investcom for this purpose and remains today closely involved in the company’s strategy and operational performance.” His PR agency admitted that they had “no photograph of Mr. Mikati.” And apologized profusely.

Najib Mikati – Vice Chairman

Najib. Mikati is the brother of Taha Mikati and a former Lebanese prime minister, an office he held in the interim period after the murder of Rafik Hariri and the downfall of the government of Omar Karami. He has also held ministerial posts and is a former member of parliament. He was a member of the executive committee of the National US-Arab Chamber of Commerce in Washington DC, and a member of the Board of Directors, and Chairman of the Economic committee at the chamber of Commerce Industry and Agriculture of Beirut and Mount Lebanon. He has close ties with Syria’s ruling Assad family

Najib Mikati holds a Masters Degree in Business Administration from the American University of Beirut and according to Investcom’s PR company, “has also attended several Executive programs which include the “Owner/President Management Program” at Harvard, Boston in 1990, “Avira Program” at INSEAD, Fontainebleau France in 1994, and “Innovations in Governance Executive Program” at Harvard, Boston in 2004.

Azmi Mikati – Chief Executive Officer

Azmi. Mikati is the son of Taha Mikati. He was appointed CEO of Investcom Holding in 1998. He is responsible for the global strategy of the Holding and its implementation. Prior to this role, he was Director of T-One Corporation (International Carrier) and a board member of FTML (France Telecom subsidiary and the previous operator of one of two mobile networks in Lebanon). Azmi. Mikati was educated in the United States, where he earned a Bachelor degree in Science from Columbia University.

November 25, 2005 0 comments
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Feature

Barrels of Potential

by Michael Karam November 25, 2005
written by Michael Karam

Last month, as prime minister Fuad Seniora approved the extension of beetroot subsidies for a further three years with funding totalling $6,000 per hectare, Lebanon’s wine makers, who receive no such public sector support, were cheerfully wrapping up their harvest, too busy to ponder on the importance of beetroot. Their new wines will eventually appear on the shelves of Lebanon’s supermarkets, on the pages of restaurant wine lists and in pallets stacked in containers ready for export to willing quaffers in France, the UK, Germany, Canada, the US, Scandinavia and beyond.

And unlike the beetroot industry, the wine sector is expanding. This year Akram Kassatly, whose Kassatly Chtaura is a leading producer of soft drinks and who, several years ago developed the homemade alco-pop Buzz, is returning to his first love of wine making and producing the first bottles of Chateau Makse. Elsewhere, the Saadeh Group is reportedly planting grapes in the West Bekaa with a view to eventually producing its own wine. Both are multi-million dollar investment projects and reflect the current optimism in wine’s potential.

Another, relatively more modest venture, is Chateau Khoury, located in the hills above Zahleh. Raymond Khoury, like Chateau Kefraya’s Michel de Bustros and Cave Kouroum’s Rahal family, is a former grape supplier who has turned his hand to wine production. He has 13 hectares (130,000 m2) planted with a wide range of grape varieties (including frustratingly difficult but potentially thrilling Pinot Noir) and will release his first wines into the market next year.

When we meet, Khoury is entertaining the regional sales agent for Seguin Moreau, the manufacturer of arguably the best oak barrels in the world. The family has gathered for lunch in an outhouse on the estate. Nearby the Chateau, which Khoury will use as a home, tasting center and hotel, is still being built. “Don’t ask me how much I have spent,” he laughs. “The winery itself cost $1 million. Then you must add the land and the buildings… let’s say over $3 million in all.”

His son, Jean-Pierre, has just finished his winemaking studies in France and will be responsible for production, while his daughter XXX, who gained valuable experience working in wineries in South Africa and California will be responsible for marketing. Khoury hopes to produce 30,000 bottles but is confident that within the next decade he will eventually increase production to 100,000.

Even by Lebanon’s microscopic – by global standards – production levels, Khoury’s output is small, but he is not alone. There is an increasing number of “micro-wineries”, who no doubt inspired by the achievements of similar garagistes in California and elsewhere in the wine producing New World, want to make limited quantities – usually 20,000-50,000 bottles per year – of premium wines. In the ultimate boutique nation their aim is to produce the ultimate boutique wines (typically wines made from low, carefully selected grape yields, matured in brand new oak barrels with minimal filtration).

Too small to make it onto the nation’s notoriously crowded (not to mention expensive) supermarket shelves, these producers are taking a leaf out of the small Californian producers and selling direct to loyal consumers through often nothing more than word of mouth.

“More than half of our 265 members produce less than 10,000 cases per year. Many are small family producers with several thousand case production, making them small and their wines can be hard to acquire if they are popular,” explains Tori Wilder, Communications Director for the Napa Valley Vintners in California. “These small wineries often sell the majority of their wines directly to consumers, through mailing lists and wine clubs.”

It is a strategy that at least one small Lebanese producer is beginning to wake up to. In Bhamdoun, once famous for its grapes, but never a hub of wine production, Naji Boutros and his American wife Jill, owners of Chateau Belle-Vue, have just completed their fourth third major harvest. “We got just over 22 tons this year,” says Jill who is responsible for marketing.

Compared to the steel of the Khoury winery, Belle Vue, with its plastic fermentation tanks is still very basic, but that is how Boutros likes it. For those who care to listen, he is an advocate of starting small and building gradually. But small is a relative term. He is insistent that only grapes picked in the Bhamdoun area are used in his wines and to achieve this he has been gradually buying up pockets of suitable land and planting them with wine grapes. “Let’s just say that I have invested several million dollars so far,” says Boutros

None of Belle-Vue’s four wines have been released on the market; that comes next year. In the meantime, they have been donated a two cellars, one of which Jill is developing into a cozy tasting room. “We are setting up a mailing list because we want a wine community to whom we can sell directly,” she explains.

The Belle-Vue initiative is entrenched the philosophy of reviving Bhamdoun’s once-proud vitiicultural heritage and much of the drive for his wine making initiative stemmed from a desire to rebuild. When the former Merrill Lynch executive returned to Bhamdoun in the mid-90s, the pain he felt at viewing the devastation, inspired him to plant vines – particularly on the site of his grandfather’s hotel Belle-Vue – and make great wine. His dream may just be realized. His second tier wine, the aptly-named Renaissance, has been listed with nine other Lebanese wines in the latest edition of The Sotheby’s Wine Encyclopedia.

On a similar trajectory – his flagship St John was listed in the award winning Wine Report – is Captain Habib Karam, a commercial airline pilot with Middle East Airlines (MEA). His day job gives him responsibility of hundreds of millions of dollars of aircraft and its passengers, but today, not far from Chateau Belle-Vue, on a rocky hillside in Ras el Harf, he has an altogether different challenge. A consignment of new, empty wine bottles destined for his modest Jezzine winery has slipped from their palette. The lorry driver and his assistant, stand around, scratching their heads as Karam wonders how is will transport 10,000 loose bottles. Such are the pitfalls of the small winery owner.

Karam’s initiative began about five years ago. Apart from a love of wine and a desire to produce small quantities of beautiful wines, he is a proud son of Jezzine and wants to encourage local farmers to plant wine grapes, a strategy that outside the Bekaa has met with mixed results. Karam says the locals have responded positively, planting both Merlot and Muscat but in Ras el Harf the scene of Karam’s fracassement de bouteilles, Clos de Qana owner Fadi Gerges admits that his initiative to convince local farmers to do the same, went off half-cocked. Boutros didn’t take the risk and bought his own. He has 12 hectares so far. He believes that this is the only way to achieve consistency and guarantee that his wines are always made from Bhamdouni grapes.

Karam has bought and harvested a total of 55 tons this year. His objective is straightforward. “I want to make low-cost expensive wine, reach a level of 60,000 bottles and maintain this production for the next ten years. Then we will see.” He admits he relishes the solidarity that wine making affords and that it is a useful antidote to his day job. “I am winemaker, accountant and administrator.” He is also passionate about Lebanon’s potential. “I have vinified in the US in France and in Lebanon. This is a paradise. We will soon have a real status in the wine world and we will sell our wines. I can’t see how we can fail when we make such small quantities. Out total production is the same as one French vineyard,”

Habib Karam, Naji Boutros and Raymond Khoury are not alone. Domaine des Tourelles, one of Lebanon’s oldest wineries and the maker of arak Le Brun, has upped its profile, hired a new winemaker and produced a premiere red, Marquis des Beys. Then there is the Nazih and May Metni, whose vineyard in Richmaya is the basis for Nabise Mont Liban, while in, near Batroun, retired General Joseph Bitar makes small quantities of Kfifane wine, for the American market. More will surely follow. The age of the small producer is upon us – and he is not farming beetroot.

November 25, 2005 0 comments
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Feature

Can Syria go it alone

by Andrew Tabler November 25, 2005
written by Andrew Tabler

The inclusion of President Bashar al Assad’s brother and brother in law in a confidential version of the Mehlis report leaked on October 21st has deep implications for the Syrian regime. The pressure game is now on, as the United States and France push for Security Council Resolution that demands Syrian compliance with the ongoing investigation into Rafik al Hariri’s death or face possible UN sanctions. What remains to be seen is how international pressure will function in the milieu of Syrian reform, as the globalised environment so many Syrians have been looking to for hope begins to turn against them. So far, the Syrian government has organized poorly attended popular protests against what Damascus calls an “unprofessional investigation”, and all the while the implications of the report are beginning to sink in among Syria’s business classes.

Since Hariri’s assassination in February, power in the Syrian regime has been centralized in the hands of the Assad family. The president’s brother, Maher, is commander of Syria’s Republican Guards – elite forces that have been used to, among other things, put down rioting of Kurds in the spring of 2004. On February 14, the day of Hariri’s murder, the president’s brother in law, Asef Shawkat, was appointed head of Syrian Military Intelligence (MI) – perhaps the country’s most powerful mukhabarat agency. His rise through the ranks was relatively swift: Shawkat was named second in command of MI on November 20, just as UN Security Council 1559 went into effect.  At the same time, a rival to Assad from within the ruling Alawite sect, Ghazi Kanan, was demoted from the head of a mukhabarat agency to the civilian administration as Minister of Interior.

Then in June, during the Ba’ath Party conference, most of the country’s “old guard” retired from the party, including Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam – long rumored to be a power center in the country. Khaddam played a key role in negotiating the end of the Lebanon War through the implementation of the Ta’if Accord. With Ghazi Kanan’s death in October in what officially was determined a suicide, most if not all alternatives to an Assad family-led Syria had been eliminated.

With the Mehlis investigation now pointing its finger at members of the Assad family, and Damascus promising it will cooperate, two options seem plausible. The first, full compliance with the probe to the extent that Maher or Shawkat would be delivered to an international tribunal, would likely lead to the collapse of the Assad regime rather quickly, or at very least, the transformation of Bashar into a Juan Carlos who presides over a democratic transition. The other and most likely option is Syrian compliance falling short of delivering Assad family members for trial. As Mehlis has indicated his work is far from finished, the moment for full UN sanctions is still not at hand.

Most people in Syria are betting on the second option. Damascus will now be in full defensive mode, and will likely hunker down and hope the storm blows over. Even if it does not, many question remain over Damascus’ ability to survive a blocade similar to that inflicted in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

Since Syria’s currency crisis of the mid 1980s, Damascus has employed a strict foreign exchange regime designed to suck up as much hard currency into Syria and keep it there, what economists call a “safe” model. Hard currency deposited in banks in the form of cash is not allowed to leave the country. Dollars transferred into the country, however, both for personal use or investment, can be transferred back out. The result has been impressive. To date, the Central Bank of Syria and the state’s mammoth Commercial Bank of Syria hold around $18 billion in reserves, enough to finance current import levels for three years. The majority of Central Bank reserves are held in cash. Currently, some $13 billion in Central Bank deposits held by the Commercial Bank of Syria are deposited outside the country at very low interest rates.

Even under pressure, the Syrian private sector will most likely continue to finance its hard currency needs through the black market, which is partially run through Lebanon. Reigning in that system could be difficult, as its remains unclear if Banque du Liban would pursue lesser offenders as they have Lebanese and Syrian security chiefs.

Other questions remain about how Syria’s new joint-venture private banks – most of which have Lebanese involvement – will fair under increased pressure.

“Sanctions would pose a lot of challenges for the new banks,” says Bassel Hamwi, Deputy Chairman and General Manager of Bank Audi Syria. “But we still don’t know what shape sanctions might take. Regardless of what happens, having a Lebanese partner is a strength.”

The real worry among banking sector observers is that increased pressure will impact ongoing reforms to Syria’s restrictive foreign exchange laws. Over the past six months, the Central Bank and Commercial Bank have eased access to hard currency to facilitate trade and better compete with private banks that are taking in larger and larger deposits every month. Some analysts predict that Syria’s foreign exchange restrictions are likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future.

In terms of agriculture and energy, two key commodities that could keep the country running even under the harshest of measures, Syria remains self-sufficient. While oil production is in decline, the government’s recent conversion of power stations from oil to natural gas could help the regime squeeze out every last drop for domestic use. Vital foreign involvement to develop Syrian oil fields, however, could be restricted as it was in Libya following the Lockerbie bombing. Best estimates show Syria has about 10 years of oil reserves, with rapid dips in production after five.

If the UN decides to cut off oil exports, however, this could go a long way to bringing the Assad house down. Officially, oil proceeds account for about half of all state revenue. Other estimates put that percentage much higher. Over the last few years, the Ministry of Finance has reduced Syria’s tax rates in a bid to entice Syria’s business classes to forego double and triple bookkeeping. While the law was passed with the business community’s input, another law enacted the same day gave the Ministry of Finance broad powers to investigate tax evasion. Businessmen immediately protested the move, causing the ministry to back down. Just how far the state would push businesspeople to pay taxes as Syria is under the gun remains unknown.

Syria is also skillful at circumventing sanctions as well. Damascus has been under US sanctions since 1979, which were toughed up in 2004 with the implementation of the Syrian Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act (SALSA). Despite both measures, US goods are still readily available in Syria. The Syrian government allows sanctioned items to be imported through third countries, with Lebanon and Dubai topping the list. As the US embassy in Damascus openly admits that it does not have the resources to enforce its sanctions in Syria, it could soon be up to US companies to acquire end-user certificates for every microchip, modem and wireless router in the Middle East.

There are concerns over the Mehlis investigation’s impact on foreign investment. Syria’s population growth rate of 2.85% per annum remains one of the highest in the Arab World. Over the last few years, the State Planning Commission has produced studies showing that hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign investment per year will be necessary to create the minimum 185,000 jobs per year to absorb new market entrants. As current capital and labor productivity rates are pitifully low (with one World Bank team reporting that Syria has the lowest Total Factor Productivity in the world), it seems certain that any dip in investment from the Arab Gulf would spell disaster for Syria. Following Hariri’s assassination, capital from Saudi Arabia – one of Syria’s main foreign investors – slowed considerably. While projects funded from Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait have filled the gap for now, it remains to be seen if the petrodollar tap will keep flowing if Mehlis finds top-level Syrian responsibility for the murder.

Interesting thus far have been popular reactions to the report. Rallies held throughout Syria on Monday were considerably smaller than those held in March. Private sector sponsors, who last time donned company t-shirts while carrying banners opposing outside intervention, were no where to be seen. Only one mobile phone company, Syriatel, which is owned by Assad’s cousin, Rami Makhlouf, sent out text messages ahead of the event calling on Syrians to come out in support for their government. Students made up the majority of protestors. Most of those carrying banners in English renouncing foreign intervention in Syria affairs openly admitted they had no idea what their placards said. And last but not least, while the rally lasted but a few hours, Syrian TV kept replaying tape of the rally’s peak the entire afternoon before iftar.

Thus far, the report has been somewhat of a wake up call for Syrians, whose nationalist sentiments seem to be growing.

“People are starting to understand that we are in big trouble,” said one accountant, who preferred to remain anonymous. “They are starting to understand that all of Syria will soon be under pressure. This will rally support around the president for sure.”

Or will it? Ahead of the Mehlis report’s release, American diplomats in Syria have openly asked Syrians how the US and UN could punish the Syrian regime without hurting the population at large. The limited impact of SALSA thus far, however, shows that Washington’s ability to come up with much promised “smart sanctions”, where a regime is pressured to change without hurting the population at large, remains to be seen.

“Worldwide experience with sanctions shows that they hit from the bottom up,” says Hamwi. “The government can wait it out, and the people with resources will survive. Twenty years ago it would have been different. The private sector is the engine of economic growth in Syria now.”

November 25, 2005 0 comments
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Development

A long-due story of mismanagement

by Safa Jafari November 25, 2005
written by Safa Jafari

This year marks the beginning of the International Water for Life Decade 2005-2015.  The United Nations, through the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and World Health Organization (WHO), have introduced ten critical years, which started on March 22, 2005, to focus global attention on what should be obvious: water for life and aims, not just to highlight the magnitude of the world’s water problem, but also to bring all “stakeholders” together to apply workable solutions.

Clean water is asserted by the UNICEF’s Executive Director Carol Bellamy as “an inviolable right, not a privilege.” It is the basis of all life and is recognized as a humanitarian issue and a human right, the misallocation of which becomes a breach of legal norms.  According to UNICEF, two buckets – 20 liters – of safe water a day is the bare minimum a child needs to live.  This is enough for drinking and eating, washing and basic sanitation. But around 4,000 children die every day due to lack of access to an adequate supply of clean water. 

If that were not enough, each year more than 1 billion of the world’s people have little choice but to resort to using potentially harmful sources of water. About four out of every 10 people in the world do not have access to even a simple pit latrine and nearly two in 10 have no source of safe drinking-water, thwarting progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) discussed in last month’s issue.  Within these MDGs there is a specific target: to cut by half, by 2015, the number of people without sustainable access to safe drinking-water and basic sanitation. However, the UN Millennium Project Task Force on Water and Sanitation, however, recently added that integrated development and management of water resources are crucial to the success or failure of all the MDGs, as water is central to the livelihood systems, particularly those of the world’s poor. 

Lebanon was the first Arab country to host celebrations marking the United Nations’ World Environment Day on June 5, 2003, the theme selected was the aptly titled ‘Water – Two Billion People are Dying for It!’.  The agenda sought, “to give a human face to environmental issues, empower people to become active agents of sustainable and equitable development, promote the understanding that communities are pivotal to changing attitudes toward environmental issues, and advocate partnership among nations to allow people to enjoy a safer and more prosperous future.”

But the promotion of sustainable development entails more than just the engagement of communities.  These cannot be ‘active agents’ so long as better awareness of the problems is not coupled by effective means to tackle them, i.e. a healthy interplay amongst: grass-root action, accountable policy, and effective infrastructure. 

To what extent are these three present in Lebanon?  Let’s put it another way: the story of water in Lebanon is that a culture of mismanagement that has led to shortage and contamination.

Ironically Lebanon has a wealth of water resources in its numerous rivers, its underground aquifers, and has generous winter rains. But the country faces a perennial water shortage. It could theoretically meet all its own needs as well as export hundreds of millions of cubic meters to its more arid neighbors.  Most households suffer regular water cuts and irregular access to fresh drinking water. 

About half of the 2,600 million cubic meters of accessible surface and groundwater is wasted every year as it is left to flow into the Mediterranean.  Estimates of Lebanon’s annual water demand vary from 1.1 (Parsons study) billion to 1.4 (ESCWA) billion cubic meters. A USAID funded study by Development Alternatives in 2001 estimated that Lebanon uses 75% of its annual water supply for irrigation.  Domestic use accounts for 165 mcm and industrial use 130 mcm, according to Parsons.  However, the Parsons study concluded that real domestic demand for water is over 300 mcm.  For many Beirutis, water is rationed – or is not available at all – during summer.  Many Lebanese have to fill water bottles at public fountains or buy water from trucks.  Demand for water is expected to rise to 2.5 billion cubic meters by 2015, and perhaps as much as 4.0 billion cubic meters by 2025, according to ESCWA.

Donors have spent over $600 million since the end of the civil war on renovating the antiquated water supply networks, but a USAID-funded study estimates that more than half of the distribution systems still need to be overhauled. Irrigation systems are in equally bad shape. They use mostly inefficient flood methods and reach less than half of the potential agricultural areas. USAID has funded almost $6 million in potable water and irrigation projects in the past decade, while Japanese, French and other governments have also funded different water projects calling for privatizing the water sector, renovating potable water networks and the conducting of better water pricing schemes. 

To make matters worse, there have been disputes with Israel over accessibility of the Lebanese government to the Wazzani tributary from the Hasbani River. However, talk of building dams are still under way and Arab donors have pledged over $150 million to fund the first phase of the Litani River Project in the south.  Long-due plans for water projects are hoped to provide drinking water, irrigation and electricity.

But all that shines is not fresh water. Estimates of pollution in Lebanon’s waters vary and statistics are minimal, out of date, or faulty.  One study estimated Lebanon’s deposit of raw sewage to equal 38,095 cubic meters per day.  Another study stated the figure was as high as 500,000 cubic meters of untreated sewage. Sadly, both studies agree on two facts: sewage is untreated and deposited into Lebanon’s waters. Out of Beirut alone, there are 15 discharge points of raw sewage and a further 23 points along the Lebanese coast we bathe in.  And raw sewage is only part of what is being deposited in our waters.  Research carried out by the Greenpeace Organization in October 1997 showed the presence of ‘a high rate of heavy metal and organic bacteria in Lebanese waters’.

A study published last September in the Daily Star newspaper and another published last July in the Environment and Development magazine – showed that the Litani River has a high average discharge rate of 770 million cubic meters (mcm). Domestic wastewater is the largest pollutant in the upper basin of the Litani. And although about 50 percent of the population is connected to a sewer system, there are no wastewater treatment plants there yet. The Litani’s Qaraoun Dam, completed in 1956, holds some 220 mcms and approximately 70 percent of the damn is polluted water.  The levels of pollution vary from season to season but there are no ongoing tests being conducted on the dam. The tests that have taken place indicate high pollution in certain areas and some conclude that the upstream Litani River is microbiologically unsuitable for domestic use or bathing.

Several of the Litani’s tributaries are highly polluted due to contaminated discharge, not excluding solid waste. Most industrial facilities within the Litani area do not treat their wastewater before directly discharging it into the Litani or its tributaries. Also, the overuse and misuse of agrochemicals by farmers and farm run-off is another source of contamination.

The World Health Organization (WHO) measures the level of Fecal Coliform bacteria found in water to determine the level of its pollution. It is not recommended to swim in an area containing more than one hundred colonies of Fecal Coliform bacteria per one hundred millimeters of water.  Prolonged contact with contaminated sea water can lead to several health problems, most notably various forms of skin disease, as well as diarrhea and vomiting.  Studies carried out by Environment and Development magazine on September 14 showed that the level of Fecal Coliform bacteria found at one of Beirut’s most luxurious resorts and private beaches was drastically above international standards at 620 colonies per 100 millimeters of water.  This brings no surprise when waste from slaughterhouses is freely allowed to be tossed or flooded into nearby rivers.  

Incidentally, November 19 is World Toilet Day, an event that has been celebrated annually since 2001 on the same day.  The goal of the World Toilet Day is to educate people on sanitation issues and promote better toilets around the world.  President of the World Toilet Organization Jack Sim was quoted by Reuters as stating that 2.6 billion people, or 40% of the human population, do not have access to proper sanitation.  Ironically, to celebrate this day, countries such as Japan and others in the EU went on to compete in the design of the most luxurious and exquisite toilets while our part of the world continues to search for ways to dispose of its daily waste without severely putting human lives at risk. 

What we must understand here is that we are all stakeholders in this as we eat and drink; swim and bathe; and allow our children to play on formerly flooded riversides whose odor provides an indication of the bacteria they hold.  In addition to health and hygiene, the nation’s economic development is at stake.  Tourism is at risk as beaches and running water are declared unsuitable for human use, and Lebanese employees are naturally less productive if they end up often taking leave due to some mysterious ‘stomach virus’.

During the war much of the information about Lebanon’s sewage system was misplaced, lost or destroyed.  Water losses exceed 50% in many areas. Much of the country’s irrigation system dates from before the civil war, and cracks in canals, evaporation, and illegal use of canal water account for irrigation efficiency of only 30 to 40%.  It is also estimated that about 40% of the population uses cesspools, which consist of porous pits that receive wastewater from the toilets, showers, wash basins or other sanitary fixtures, with no proper service for sludge removal, so they are subject to overflow or contamination of groundwater.  Naturally, contamination finds its way to our potable water system through leaks from damaged networks, clogged wells, or flooding rivers. 

Due to lack of regulation, the Beirut River, as one example, has become a dump for garbage and sewage and according to Greenpeace Lebanon, if nothing significant is done before the rainy season starts, the river and underground reservoirs will be entirely polluted. 

Numerous governmental decrees have established standards for the proper disposal of pollutants. There are guidelines and “environmental limit values” set by various ministries. And there are decrees for the management of healthcare and hospital waste.  The problem, however, lies in two facts:  there is no system of accountability for those who breach the law, and there is no centralized, regular and uninterrupted monitoring of pollution quantities and qualities in Lebanon to date.

The people of Lebanon know that their country suffers a shortage and contamination of its waters; the funds have come to Lebanon, particularly to help solve the water problem; and our policy makers are well aware of the situation that has haunted them since the civil war.  Where does the problem lie?  The problem lies in the management of those three ingredients:  the people, the funds and policy. The people need to change their environmentally harmful behavior.  New and healthy infrastructure must be created to support the widening water network in the country.  And an effective policy must be put to force whereby any misconduct is monitored and its doers are held accountable.  For some reason, we seem to think that the problem of water in Lebanon yet needs to be made known to the people who today smell and taste the water they use – whenever it is available.

November 25, 2005 0 comments
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