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Business

Saudi Arabia: Kingdom under fire

by Claude Salhani February 1, 2004
written by Claude Salhani

Last month the Saudi Arabian authorities ordered the removal of ‘poor boxes’ from outside mosques in an effort to curtail the flow of money to what the Saudi government calls “terrorist organizations.” The move comes after indications that individual contributions to Islamic organizations have greatly declined after the implementation of strenuous controls to curtail the flow of money to extremist groups. However, it appears that not all sourcing has been cut-off. Just this January, US federal banking regulators are looking into the Saudi Arabian Embassy’s bank accounts in Washington, DC, examining numerous transactions, totaling tens of millions of dollars in cash that weren’t properly reported, according to a Wall Street Journal report published on January 14.

The newspaper states, “While the US investigation into the Saudi accounts was previously known, the discoveries at the Riggs National Corporation show it is far broader than previously disclosed.” The inquiry, which began in 2002, initially involved only a few thousand dollars, thought to be tied-in to the September 11, 2001 perpetrators. “Now,” the paper reports, “investigators are trying to account for millions of dollars in hard-to-trace cash.”

The paper writes that it is unusual for the US to scrutinize the finances of a close ally such as Saudi Arabia. “But since September 11, the Justice and Treasury departments have been trying to track the origins and destinations of money brought into the US to fund schools, mosques, charities and Islamic groups, some of which are considered extremist by the US” This does not mean that the embassy’s money deliberately funded these groups, but it does cause concern to US authorities that want to keep a tighter lid on transfer of funds originating from potential supporters of such extremist organizations. The embassy ‘incident’ typifies the problems facing Saudi Arabia, but it may just be the tip of the iceberg. Today, for the first time since its creation in 1902 when Abd al-Aziz bin Abd al-Rahman al-Saud captured Riyadh and set out on his 30-year campaign to unify the Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia faces its most serious threat. Its once-thriving economy propelled by the 1970s oil boom is stagnating, affecting its society as never before.

The one-time social pressure valve – religion – offered to a society where socializing among mixed sexes is banned, where cinemas are non-existent, where alcohol is forbidden, where women are still veiled and considered second-class citizens, where political parties and elections are absent and democracy is unheard of, is now coming back to bite the government. Since oil was first discovered in the 1930s, bringing unimaginable riches and practically unlimited resources to the country, the ruling House of Saud had hoped they could forever live in a quasi-utopian world, far from the problems of the West. The Saudi rulers wished to market their oil to the West, but at the same time shut it out, thereby safeguarding the country from foreign influences. They believed the mighty petro-dollar could buy anything and distance all ills, be they political, socio-economic or any of the other turbulences that modernity unavoidably brings with it.

Now Saudi Arabia is now waking up to a very different reality. For decades, many people in the Kingdom refused to admit that all was not quite right. That beneath the apparently tranquil façade of a society, where the state took it upon itself to provide free cradle-to-grave healthcare and free education, compiled with no taxation thanks to generous oil revenues, resentment, nevertheless, has long been brewing. Turmoil, rather than oil, is now emerging from those desert sands. The reason for Saudi Arabia’s new internal disorder, brought to the world’s attention by the recent wave of terrorist activity that has ripped the until-now quiet country of about 20 million, is two-fold: Islamic fundamentalism and a growing disenchantment among the young, exacerbated by a decline in the economy.

Over the years, affluent Saudis, including some members of the royal family, financed madrassas in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia as well as Western Europe and North America, thinking it would appease the Wahhabi fundamentalists, who would leave them alone back in Saudi Arabia. Some contributions, such as that from the wife of the Saudi Ambassador to Washington, were made without the knowledge of where the monies would end up and it is these transactions that are now under scrutiny by the US authorities. In addition to stopping the flow of funds to possible terror groups, Saudi authorities have realized the need to curtail the preaching of fundamentalists. According to one well-informed report, more than 2,000 Saudi imams who advocate hard-line fundamentalism have been removed from the pulpit. About 1,500 are being reeducated or have been jailed. Bin Laden, originally a Saudi citizen, is one of the many disenchanted Saudis who have now taken his fight into the streets of Saudi cities. The reason behind his hate of America, as demonstrated by the horrendous September 11, 2001 attacks on New York City and Washington, DC, is due to the unfaltering support given by the United States to the Saudi royal family.

Many of these disaffected young men – like bin Laden – have turned to religion to vent their frustrations. Today, one should not brush aside the possibility that Saudi Arabia may turn radical. Conditions in the country are ripe for growing dissent to continue to rise to a perilous level, unless the situation is immediately addressed.

Yet the answer to the Saudi dilemma is not simple. The United States, who keeps pushing for greater democracy in the Middle East, ironically, might not find it entirely in its national interest if free elections were to be held in Saudi Arabia tomorrow. Many analysts believe the majority of the vote would be won by bin Laden supporters, turning the world’s largest oil supplier into an anti-American, anti-Western strict Islamic theocracy.

The perceived corruption in the royal House of Saud does nothing to help the royal family’s cause; many Saudis, particularly the fundamentalists, frown heavily upon the jet-setting life style of the royal princes and what they call their ‘decadent’ Western habits. Additionally, the growing numbers of university graduates, who are injected yearly into Saudi society, but with no prospects of decent employment, add to the growing resentment of the royal family.

Much of the disenchantment stems from the country’s youth, many of whom, despite free higher education, remain unemployed and see little, if any, prospect of a brighter future as long as the status quo remains unchanged. The under-25 year-olds now comprise a clear majority in the kingdom. Over the years, this resentment has matured and developed into an aversion to the lifestyle portrayed by the country’s 7,000 princes, who, on average, receive each a $500,000 yearly stipend. This money, critics say, is wasted on luxury items, extravagant villas strewn over Marbella, the Cote d’Azur and other chic resorts. Many Saudis begrudge the princes’ excessive lifestyles that would make even the most extravagant Hollywood star appear tame by comparison.

The Saudi royal household’s spending money for the 24,000 members, its princes, spouses and assorted offspring comprised, hovers around a $3 billion annual budget.

Meanwhile, the official line in Riyadh was that everything was golden in a country that prided itself on its low crime rate and strict Islamic codes, where shari’a – Qoranic law – was rigorously enforced. Even after September 11, some members of the Saudi ruling class continued to reject the possibility of terrorist striking at home, refusing to bring change to a failed educational system that helped produce some of these fundamentalists.

Even after the September 11, 2001 attacks, some Saudis refused to acknowledge the fact that 15 of the 19 hijackers were fellow citizens. But the recent surge of homegrown terrorism in their own streets has suddenly woken the Saudi authorities to the fact that immediate action is needed.

Recent bombings, including shoot-outs with police forces in Saudi cities – a previously unheard of phenomenon in the kingdom – have made the Saudis realize they cannot remain immune to terrorism. For years, some members of the royal family wrongly believed they could "buy protection" from fundamentalists, by paying them off through generous financial donations and in building madrassas.

Late last year the Saudis prevented an attack in the holy city of Mecca, but suicide bombers, believed to be members of Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida network, blew themselves up in a residential complex close to the king’s palace, killing 17 people and injuring about 120. This attack followed the temporary closing of the US embassy and consulates in Riyadh.

Today, under the quiet desert sands a revolution of sorts is brewing. The May 2003 attacks acted as a rude reality check. It was their September 11. It made them realize that changes had to be made or else risk continuing upheaval, and even worse.

The solution to the country’s mounting problems lies in a succession of quick reforms that should be adapted at all levels of Saudi society. The most pressing is in education, where the curricula need to be transformed and updated in order to bring it in line with 21st century learning. Women need to be given greater rights, and the people need to be gradually introduced to democracy by giving them a share in the running of their country. The other burning issue, of course, is restraining militant Islamic activism. At a lecture given at the American University of Kuwait on January 13, Marwan Muasher, Jordanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, who had previously served as Ambassador of Jordan to the United States of America, stressed the need for political reform in the region. "The Arab World needs to adopt a new political order to be able to address ever-increasing changes on the global arena. Anyone who calls for political reforms and more freedoms in the Arab world is condemned and branded an ally of Washington. Not so long ago Arab experts (through the UNDP) outlined problems in Arab societies which included lack of freedom, outdated educational system, human right abuse and trampling on the rights of women". Political reform, Muasher stated, should not be limited to one country alone but implemented in the whole region and should not be delayed; otherwise economic development without corresponding political advancement would be meaningless." He added, "Political reforms are needed now because they may come later at a higher price". “The core of the reform and its success or failure will depend on the Royal Family’s unified efforts to define Islam and delegitimize its more extreme elements,” says Ambassador Edward S. Walker Jr., president of the Middle East Institute in Washington. Walker, who has served as American ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Israel and was assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs from 1999 to 2001, believes that “There is a quiet revolution going on in Saudi Arabia. No one knows its depth, its breadth or its ultimate impact, but the reform effort is very real and is probably unstoppable.”

One can only hope that the revolution continues to be a quiet one and revolves in the right direction.

(Claude Salhani is the foreign editor and political analyst with United Press International in Washington, DC.)

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Playing it safe

by Thomas Schellen February 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

To the credit of the aviation sector, December’s deadly crash of the Union des Transports Africains plane appears not to have damaged consumer confidence in the region’s leading airlines. Established carriers and Arab niche operators all agreed that they are in a different league to a company like UTA and Flash and have nothing to fear. “From my perspective, the incident barely dented the customer confidence of Middle East travelers,” said Horm Irani, general manager of ExecuJet Middle East. “There are a number of new carriers establishing themselves in the region and doing well by all accounts. Current carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and MEA continue to flourish and grow and certainly demand for our services continues to remain strong.” The disaster could have some negative bearing on commercial aviation in Lebanon, at least in the short term. Sector companies, until now, were commonly full of praise for the supportiveness of Lebanon’s government and aviation authorities. But following the back-to-back crashes, industry sources said the government is likely to be extra careful in scrutinizing applications for charter licenses. These measures, while frustrating for those companies eager to do business, can only lead to increased consumer confidence in the long-term. The UTA crash, or more likely the public accusations and rumor mongering about alleged culpability of local aviation officials, seem to have forced public servants to hunker down. “The civil aviation is becoming more restrictive,” observed Fadi Saab, chairman of Lebanon’s cargo airline, TMA. “I hope that fear of responsibility and blame will not become an obstacle for developing the role of Beirut Airport.” Of course, in every tragedy there is a lesson of human responsibility to be learnt, and fulfillment of this responsibility can never be emphasized enough. This lesson applies especially to those who do things the “Lebanese way,” meaning that congenial ability for making impromptu arrangements and circumventing obstacles, even if they are essential operating rules and safety procedures. In plain words, application of standards is a permanent need, and stakeholders in land and sea transportation here have still much to accomplish in that respect. Enforcement of vehicular safety standards in land transportation, for instance, this year in the infancy of its implementation, remains under-appreciated. Opposition to moderate requirements on technical and environmental soundness of vehicles used in public transport is a disturbing symptom of immaturity, lacking awareness and missing education. Working hour regulations for truckers and the safety and environmental inspections of their heavy vehicles, which is commonplace in developed countries, have yet to be implemented. From taxi drivers to enforcement officials and role models – including politicians, schoolteachers, driving instructors and reporters – patterns of demonstrating awareness and setting examples are rarely seen.

In the goings and comings at Beirut Port, observers also have spotted lingering disrespect of proper standards. As far as crooked inspectors closing their eyes to certain problems on safety inspection lists, “corruption still exists in the port,” said Ian Wilson, a consultant and resident expert on maritime safety. He and other insiders knew tales of unsound, leaking and creaking equipment, hushed-up incidents, problems with inexperienced pilots, and criminal attempts to alter an accident scene after a ship fire.

Lately, the safety awareness and compliance among Lebanese ship owners has been progressing, Wilson said, with the ministry of transport and port authorities making efforts to improve the enforcement of standards, by stepping up scrutiny of ship certifications and seafarer certifications. According to the expert, this positive development is further helped along by increasingly tighter international requirements for maritime safety, the latest increment being impending measures aiming to safeguard ships against use in terrorist attacks. Overall, however, in context of ambitions to assume a stronger role for Lebanon’s shipping and transportation industry, domestic safety issues and regulatory standards deserve still increasing consideration from all public and private sector participants. It would be of even greater advantage, if these standards could be implemented in conjunction with a regional regulatory framework also involving harmonization of customs procedures and transit standards. As far as these frameworks for borderless transportation within the Levant are concerned, the present situation is rife with problems. Industry members frequently don’t like to speak up about the issue but there is no mistaking the reality of protectionist and self-serving behavior of governments in the Levant that hinder competition and evolution of both trade and transportation. Lebanon is no exception to the practice but, as the realm’s smallest country, it suffers the largest disadvantages from the situation. “Syrian traders are forbidden from using Lebanese ports to import or export goods, because their government wants to make money at its ports,” lamented a shipping manager. The complaint is as common in the industry as the request to not be identified for making it. Latest developments in the area of customs harmonization promise some but not total relief. About half a year ago, Syria unified its tax and documentation requirements and reduced the levies on transit cargo. Lebanese freight forwarders uniformly lauded this development as very beneficial. Only last month, in response to increased cargo traffic caused by the growth of trade and aid shipments to Iraq, Jordan decided to temporarily suspend restrictions on transiting containers shipped through ports other than Aqaba. The Jordanian, Syrian and Lebanese ministers of transport have furthermore conferred about more permanent measures to improve the regulations for overland transit shipping involving the three countries. The negotiations would not mean that protectionism will vanish in the foreseeable future – Syrian traders will still be prohibited from using Lebanese ports for their imports and exports – but they could create a viable regulatory environment to give Lebanon’s ports, shipping agents and freight forwarders a decent share of the cargo business to Iraq. According to Abdel Hafeez Kayssi, director general for sea and land transport at the ministry of transport and public works, the work on better regulations is progressing. “We are expecting a Memorandum of Understanding to be signed by March,” he said, “in preparation for further steps.” While they are waiting for better regulations, Lebanese forwarders simply remain applying “the Lebanese way.” As Syria requires payment of a cargo tax for all goods entering the country, one explains, “truckers cross the border with two sets of invoices. He hands one to Syrian customs; the other stays in the driver’s cabin and is for the customer in Iraq.”

By under-declaring the value of the cargo, the forwarders found a way to pay minimal transit tax to Syria, presumably with some support from WASTA-appreciating control personnel. And since the freight does not remain in the country, it does not trouble the waters. The system has worked well for the past six months of Iraqi reconstruction, as customs and import taxes on the Iraqi border were suspended. The UTA crash was a veritable catastrophe. Apart from devastating hundreds of families, it led to an official investigation of the disaster and caused an avalanche of wild accusations in the media aimed at any political opponent they alleged to be linked to the plane and who violated their responsibilities by allowing it near Lebanese airspace. However, cool reflection will win out and there is unlikely to be any indictment – legal or moral – that this accident was a symptom of any flaws in Lebanese air safety practices. Lebanon is a signatory of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) rules and if the country is to be blamed for allowing the plane to land in Beirut, then similar culpability must be leveled at Dubai, where the plane frequently landed. As one aviation expert put it, “much worse planes are out there flying and if this plane had not been overloaded it would still be flying today.” Human responsibility for the catastrophe of UTA flight 141 clearly existed. All indicators, however, suggest that, morally and legally, this guilt rests with the pilot and with the airline, which sanctioned the take-off even though the plane was overloaded. Take-off crashes due to overloading of passenger jets are rare. The Aviation Safety Network, which maintains a global data-base of all reported accidents and occurrences involving loss of aircraft since 1945, lists only nine overload crashes, two of them with a higher casualty count than the UTA crash. Things are seldom as clear-cut as they appear to be in this case. When the first takeoff attempt had to be aborted, the plane’s owner had no right to interfere with the flight management. As sole authority in the cockpit, the pilot would have had the legal obligation to dismiss the owner’s crazed demand. Furthermore, any control tower worth its salt would have intervened after the first aborted take-off.

The two men with the burden of not preventing the crash both survived. Each will have to be held accountable, and each will have to bear the knowledge of their blame for causing loss of lives. To the large rest of air travelers, a lesson of this disaster suggests that individually, one should never dismiss common sense. If you see a row of folding chairs added at the back of a passenger jet, just refuse to buckle up and get off, even if it means re-bribing the authorities to allow millions of dollars of hard currency to walk out of their country.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Waiting to offload

by Thomas Schellen February 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

The matter of greatest obvious concern for stakeholders in sea and overland transportation is the new container terminal at Beirut Port. Idle since its completion some three years ago, the $200 million project’s commencement of operations depends on two factors: contracting an operator and installation of essential equipment, like the so-called gantry cranes.

Three of these giant cranes, capable of lifting containers between cargo vessels and shore-side facilities, have been manufactured in China at a cost of $27 million. The contract also includes six smaller, mobile gantry cranes and other equipment. Representatives of Lebanon’s shipping industry are eagerly awaiting the arrival of the cranes. “They were scheduled to arrive here in February or March but an agreement between the Port of Beirut and the supplier has been made to postpone delivery until May,” said Elie Zakhour, president of the International Chamber of Navigation in Lebanon.

Sector companies are nervous about any sign of delays in delivery of the cranes, as it highlights the fact that the tender for an operator contract is overdue and is reminiscent of the derailment of the container terminal’s start in 2001. At that time, the Dubai Port Authority (DPA) bowed out of a contract to operate the terminal, and shipping insiders believe that a key factor in the cancellation was problems between the port and a group of contractors who hitherto have been entrusted with handling cargo movements.

These operators are independent firms, which the Lebanese government invited at the end of the war to provide stevedore services when the authorities needed to bring the port back to life in the fastest and least costly manner available. The contractors were rewarded for their commitment by receiving a 30% share of the cargo fees collected by the port. This, said Zakhour, “provided the equipment owners with a total revenue of $15 million over the past 13 years” – but port and operators never signed a formal contract that would regulate their status and cover questions of canceling their services. Almost unavoidably, the current matter of contention is compensations. It was over this issue that stevedore companies last month staged a one-day walkout that paralyzed cargo movements at Beirut Port. Observers contend that similar disputes between the port and the same operators – whom some industry insiders call “the Mafia” – played heavily into the fact that DPA stepped out of its contract. And they are asking whether the interests of this smaller group again could, by using their alleged ‘pipelines of influence,’ prevail over the common good. Following the DPA withdrawal, cargo handling at Beirut Port continued in a fashion that made visiting specialists gasp at how well the operation was working – but only given that the work is done by using the methods of a bygone shipping era. The problem is, the system is simply unsuited for large ships. “No shipping line is interested to come to Beirut as long as there is no container terminal,” said Zakhour. “When we have the terminal, Beirut will have a chance to become a transshipment hub.” Completion of the container terminal will boost capacity of Beirut Port to be able to handle 500,000 twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEU), a theoretical increase of about 70% over its 2003 cargo volume that was in the magnitude of 300,000 TEU. But more important than this increase in capacity would be improvements in service quality and reduction in turnaround times for big vessels. Undoubtedly, even the best imaginable boom of Lebanese domestic consumption and exports could not provide Beirut port with the volumes and turnover of a major hub. To some operators, the facts that the port generates income and operates with some degree of efficiency thus serve as arguments to justify the current situation as acceptable. In the eyes of others, repeated postponements spell another lost chance for each day that the terminal remains idle. There is but one way to test whether Beirut would be able to succeed in competing for sea-to-sea transshipment business, and that is offering the services of a functional terminal.

What adds further spice to the situation is the recent upturn in cargo movements to Iraq. “Sea to land transshipment has much improved,” Zakhour said. “When the US/UK-led coalition made war on Iraq, we were afraid that impact on shipping would be disastrous, but it is now better than before the war. Under Saddam, everything in Iraq was state controlled whereas today, private importers rule the scene.”

Although much of the increase in deliveries to Iraq last year was in shipping cars, members of the industry view growth of container forwarding in 2004 as a sure thing. The main reason for the optimism is based on the situation in other ports, mainly the Jordanian Aqaba. It is the primary gateway for shipments into Iraq and favored as an ally by the Americans, but traffic at the port has become so intense that carriers have been leveling high congestion charges for sailing to Aqaba.

From the Syrian ports, Latakia and Tartous, shipments to Iraq have similar overland transit times as from Lebanon. But in these ports congestion reportedly is also becoming an issue, thus opening new prospects for Beirut and Lebanon’s second port of call, Tripoli, which also saw cargo business pick up in the second half of 2003. (Like Tartous, Tripoli Port is undergoing extension and modernization, financed by a development loan from the European Investment Bank.)

Trucking a container from Beirut to Baghdad currently costs between $1,200 and $1,800, depending on the circumstances, said Nabil Sakr, managing director of DAS Express, a firm with experience in overland forwarding to Iraq. He estimated shipping costs via Tartous to be about 25% lower, but claimed greater speed and expertise in Beirut could make up the difference for shippers. DAS management expects an increase of Iraq-bound container shipments via Beirut by 500% to 600% for this year alone. But even after such an increase, other ports would still be far ahead in their throughput of Iraq cargo. “What we are getting is almost peanuts,” Sakr said. Based on the reasoning that Beirut can equalize its higher port fees by already offering a faster turnaround time to ships and better service than the bureaucracy-heavy Syrian ports, Lebanon’s premier port could push its advantages further by offering lower rates and achieving additional improvements on service quality and speed – tasks for which a well-run, spanking new container terminal would come in more than handy.

A third industry concern and opportunity for developing the Lebanese shipping location is as a logistics hub. The crux of such an operation lies in the ability to provide large international manufacturing companies with a regional distribution base, from where adjacent markets are supplied and serviced.

International express shipping and logistics company DHL has already taken steps that could assist Beirut in assuming a stronger role in its regional network: it has set up new overland routes and their Lebanon operation has just received approval for expanding its facilities at Beirut International Airport by 3,000 square meters. The expansion involves a capital expenditure of $2 million and the hiring of some 40 new staff over the next three years, country manager John Chedid told EXECUTIVE.

He attributed much of Lebanon’s growth potential in providing logistics to improvements in the regulatory and customs environment. “When you have facilities and good customs practices, you start attracting transit material,” he said. “New procedures in customs have made everything clearer and much more transparent. If I dare make a prediction, 2004 will see further progress towards a much better regulatory environment.” One crucial improvement in operating conditions for international and domestic logistics firms is definitely in the making. Exploiting the geographical and skilled labor advantages of Beirut for providing logistics services to any of the big names in manufacturing requires a free zone environment that permits repackaging and distribution of shipments – which previously had not been possible under Lebanese regulations. However, EXECUTIVE learned the rulebooks for Lebanon’s free zones have just been rewritten. The revised rules, allowing freight forwarders to establish facilities in the free zones and implement regional distribution activities, are in the final approval phase at time of writing this article.

Joseph Harb, president of Beirut Cargo Center, told EXECUTIVE the new regulations will open tremendous opportunities for logistics providers not only for his company, but also for the economy at large. “If you want a big manufacturer like Addidas or Siemens to open an office in Lebanon, allow freight forwarders into the free zones,” he said. Additionally, the move would serve to promote Beirut Port internationally, Harb enthused. “Ports and customs authorities do not promote the free zones,” he said, “the freight forwarders are the ones to promote them.”

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Young blood: Al Balad’s big debut

by Anthony Mills February 1, 2004
written by Anthony Mills

There’s a new newspaper in town and it’s in your face – television, billboards, vans, in other newspapers, sales people in the street, your doorstep, even the office. Al Balad’s marketing is aggressive; with start up costs of $6 million, its investors are not taking any chances, especially with a daily print run of 65,000 copies.

“We have a very serious marketing plan and a very serious business plan, and it shows,” said Marwan Dimas, the newspaper’s general manager. “We think there is room in Lebanon for a new newspaper that has a different approach to news and it is clear that this is a serious newspaper, not just a bunch of people publishing anything.”

One has to be a serious player – at least financially – in Lebanon, to set up a paper because it involves buying an existing state-set number of licenses, which cost several hundred thousand dollars. Insiders say that it cost Dimas and his fellow shareholders $300,000 to buy the defunct title Al Balad from ex-parliamentary speaker Hussein Husseini.

Dimas acknowledged the price was wholly unreasonable for a license. “Although journalism in Lebanon is supposedly free, you cannot obtain your own license. You have to buy an existing one for several hundred thousand dollars. This restricts people’s ability to open a newspaper. The existing licenses are rare and those who have them hold onto them,” said Dimas. “In a free country, everyone should be able to open a newspaper.”

Despite these obstacles, the Al Balad team is out to smash circulation records and shatter the hidebound assumption that Lebanon’s total daily print circulation figure will never surpass 60,000. To achieve that goal, Al Balad aims to overcome religious and political barriers that it believes has created this apparent readership ceiling.

“The newspaper industry has a complex political and religious scene. All the newspapers have their political identities and this automatically reduces the target audience, or target group of readers. Nobody in Al Balad has any local political agenda,” said Dimas, admitting that newspaper’s editorial line is pro-Gulf countries as a number of the shareholders in Integra, the marketing and advertising arm of Al Balad, are Kuwaiti.

The emphasis is on marketing, Dimas reiterated, a domain hitherto neglected by Al Balad’s Lebanese competitors. “Can you name the marketing manager of any of the daily newspapers in Lebanon?” he asked. “They don’t have a marketing manager. They have commercial managers to sell advertising but they don’t have anyone to market their newspapers. They don’t sell subscriptions. They don’t have street vendors. There is a lot missing in their marketing activity and tools. There is no tactical marketing.”

Al Balad, on the other hand, has adopted a marketing strategy that they are confident ultimately allow it to reap “huge” advertising revenues, declared Dimas. The paper’s aggressive home subscription campaign constitutes a starting block of 50,000 subscribers within a year – a tally that Dimas is sure will be attractive to advertisers. Dimas maintained that this was a realistic goal, but conceded that it would be no easy task to get more people in Lebanon to read.

“Lebanese people don’t have the habit of reading a newspaper every day,” he lamented. In an effort to spur such a habit, Al Balad has given away 50,000 free three-month subscriptions. Overall, the paper has embarked on a major advertising campaign involving television, billboards, radio, and direct marketing activities – Al Balad salespeople have distributed free copies and promotional items across Beirut using funds set aside under a $500,000 advertising and marketing launch budget. Dimas said a little less than that amount would be spent on marketing and advertising every year until expenditure stabilized at around 2% of total revenues. He preferred not to give a figure for projected revenues, saying that people would regard it as totally unrealistic and think he was crazy. He said he expected 20% of revenues to come from subscription fees and the remainder from sales and advertising. In general, he said, a newspaper in Lebanon needs to make about $500,000 a month to break even.

Finding an unexploited niche market in the lighter side of the news, Al Balad is not bound by the confines of a serious image, unlike Lebanon’s other major newspapers. “They cannot accept the light-hearted stories, the light-hearted layout. It’s against their fundamental principles of credibility, seriousness, and traditionalism. This has constituted an opportunity for us,” said Dimas.

With its modern, self-effacing image, Al Balad is unpretentious, meaty and speaks to the whole family, claims Dimas. Its dozens of pages comprise a lifestyle, sports, economy, business, and politics – both regional and international – section, and its layout is novel and refreshing. True to its innovative image, the paper places special emphasis on the Lifestyle section, the eight pages of which cover entertainment, nutrition, beauty, health and fitness, fashion, food, music, and art. Less attention is paid to politics.

“You don’t usually find our kind of content in the local newspapers,” said Dimas. “Al Balad is like a daily magazine. We aim to have less politics. It is part of our strategy to have a maximum of 30% to 40% of our content related to politics.”

Pressed to elaborate, Dimas said: “In politics, I believe we cannot compete with the opinion-leading newspapers of Lebanon, such as An Nahar and As Safir. Our strategy is to compete elsewhere.” He acknowledged that Al Balad’s conscious accentuation of the light-hearted could initially lead some people to dismiss the paper as trivial. “Just because we place greater emphasis on the light-hearted does not mean we are not a serious newspaper. We tackle all issues very seriously. You can tackle the marriage of Britney Spears as seriously as you tackle any other issue.”

Overall, Al Balad employs 200 staff, from printing press technicians and delivery boys to salespeople. The peper’s owners claim to employ 55 journalists, most of whom are hungry, fresh, young graduates, attuned to the youthful, energetic pulse the paper is attempting to generate. Editors enjoy an established pay scale scheme, which starts at $500 for the least experienced, and reaches $1,200 for the most experienced.

As an entity, Al Balad encompasses two companies: the newspaper – which is run by Dimas (general manager), a chairman, Ahmad Badrani, and an editor-in-chief, Charles Charbel, formerly of Al Hayat – and Integra, a company contracted by Al Balad to take care of the marketing, advertising, sales, distribution, and printing.

The stakes for Al Balad are definitely high: running a daily newspaper costs about $5 to $6 million a year. Although the paper’s shareholders don’t expect a profit after the first year and have embraced a five-year business plan, they will be looking for early reassurances that their hefty financial investments will pay off in this most difficult of markets.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Q&A: Hassan Kraytem

by Executive Contributor February 1, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

Is it fair to say that the port has been performing reasonably well in 2003?

Yes. Beirut Port has been performing well with regards to imports and total revenues, which increased from $71 million in 2002 to $75 million last year.

A much talked-about issue is the project of putting the port’s container terminal into business. Is the tender for finding an operator progressing?

It is ready. We have completed the tender documents, and they are now with the minister for final approval.

How long until an operator would be able to come in?

In the tender documents, we specified one-and-a-half months to receive responses from interested operators, but we think that we should extend that to perhaps two months. For the phase from awarding the contract, we have scheduled three to four months for the operator to mobilize and start operations. In total, we are talking about half a year.

For what duration will the contract be awarded?

It would be for 10 years, with a possible five-year extension.

A second big issue regarding the container terminal is necessary equipment, which you ordered from China. Are these gantry cranes ready for delivery?

Delivery of all the equipment we bought has already begun. I think the gantry cranes are on a boat and just left China. They require two-and-a-half months at sea because they have to go all the way around Africa. Then they require another two-and-a-half to three months of erection and testing, which, like the operator tender, brings us to the middle of the year.

Did you request a delay of delivery?

There was a delay by two months. Delivery was originally scheduled for end of March. However, we did not actually delay delivery. We pinpointed some issues in a punch list for modifications and we requested the manufacturer to change most of them in China.

Does this delivery provide all the equipment needed for the terminal?

Ideally, we should have four gantry cranes and not three, which means that ideally we should have eight Rubber-Tyred Gantry cranes [RTG] and not six. We opted to buy the strict minimum as an initial step and allow ourselves to buy more when need arises. In our contract, we have an option to buy one more fixed gantry crane and two more RTGs.

Steel prices have gone up. Could that alter prices under the contract option?

The option does not allow for a price hike due to steel price fluctuation. The only price hike is on the euro side. When we signed the option, 25% are to be rescheduled taking into regard euro appreciation.

Considering the total cost of $27 million for the equipment under delivery, you got a good deal?

We got an excellent deal.

As far as construction of the container terminal, is it correct that the total capital investment amounted to $200 million?

It was less than that and it was more than just the container terminal. The investment was closer to $180 million and it included rehabilitation of some of the old parts of the port.

Are the $27 million for the new cranes included in the $180 million or on top of that?

I believe, on top.

Did it incur specific costs for the terminal not to be operational for a period of several years?

Major cost would have been interest expenses, but the port self-financed this project and basically there were no interest-bearing loans involved. We have some maintenance costs, but those are peanuts.

But how would you assess the cost of lost opportunity from the delay?

I believe the cost of opportunity loss is in the extra services that we could have offered, mostly in transshipment, and in the quality of the service that we could have achieved. What the dollar figure for that is, who knows?

Do you consider attracting large carriers for transshipment to Beirut as a realistic vision?

I have been talking a lot with carriers, and the vision varies. There are those who think that it is absolutely impossible to have transshipment here, and then it ranges all the way to those who think that carriers will be lining up to transship out of Beirut. I think if we can sell that product at a good price we will have some transshipment but I don’t believe that we should aim at becoming a transshipment hub the way Dubai or some other ports are. Further expansion of Beirut Port would be very expensive and I do not believe that transshipment revenue would be able to cover such expenses.

Did the delay harm the concept of becoming a transshipment hub?

Today, we have very little, not to say no, transshipment cargo. The studies we have undertaken show that transshipment starts very slowly and tends to increase with time. So, a three year delay is costing some money, but not a lot.

Can you confirm that freight forwarders will be able to establish operations in the Port’s free zone?

Yes, we have been working very closely with customs on that issue and we just modified the rules for the free zone in order to allow logistics companies to operate inside the free zone. This is especially for re-packing, handling cargo for third parties, and to undertake stock control for major companies, in order to make Beirut a center of distribution for the entire Middle East area. This is much more interesting than transshipment alone.

Last month, the port saw disputes and compensation demands over termination of stevedore contracts with the equipment contractors that have been handling cargo at the port. Would you be able to comment on the validity of their demands?

While I understand their demands and might be sympathetic to some of them, legally speaking, I cannot resolve them from where I stand.

Could you give an estimate on the value of their equipment and what amounts these companies might have invested in the past five years?

Since we are not legally bound or allowed to provide any compensation, we didn’t look into this matter. Just as everyone, I have heard of astronomical amounts of money that are supposedly being demanded. I can only say that I think the numbers I heard are far exaggerated.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Crying over spilt milk

by Eleanor Blanch February 1, 2004
written by Eleanor Blanch

The government and the private sector must do more than squabble over the standards in the dairy product sector if proper regulation is to be achieved. Cutthroat competition between small and big producers, chaotic ministerial control and sluggish exports of a mere $3 million all have to be addressed.

The health standards of dairy products, which became a subject of tit-for-tat accusations late last year, are not as dire as they seem, but their problems have been writ large due the chaos gripping a private sector trying to maximize profits and a government trying to deflect attention away from its failure to boost the troubled sector.

Prior to Agriculture Minister Ali Hassan Khalil’s statements last year about the poor standards of dairy producers, state prosecutors were investigating embezzlement charges by his predecessor, Ali Abdullah, who has been accused of using a $15 million loan for a dairy projects for his personal use.

Abdullah faces 15 years in jail for dipping his hand into credit extended by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to finance the import of some 5,000 cows and the creation of milk collection centers in rural areas.

The US-Lebanese cow project and numerous other internationally funded programs aimed at revitalizing the dairy sector have failed over the years due to political intervention, dairy producers say.

“The International Fund for Agricultural Development was working on a project to set up some milk collection centers in the Bekaa but it was only able to create one because politicians wanted a piece of the pie in other centers,” said Iskandar Chedid, head of the dairy producers committee at the Syndicate of Lebanese Food Industries.

And any funding that is made is not focused. “Over the past four to five years, the government has spent at least $100 million of donor loans on dairy projects and yet we still have a load of problems linked to the chaos within the government,” said Atef Idriss, President of the Lebanese Food Industries. “Some of these projects did not involve the private sector and in fact competed with it.”

Elsewhere, many dairy producers say their sector has numerous problems with government licensing, rivalry among small and big producers and the implementation of standards.

Minister Ali Hassan Khalil said last year there were up to 400 dairy units in Lebanon, out of which only 25% were licensed. The rest may be selling contaminated milk and other dairy products. There are no accurate figures for the true number of the dairy units that fluctuates with the seasons and can reach up to 600 units.

While most producers welcome regulation, they say the minister’s public accusations have not lead to a genuine clampdown on unlicensed dairies and instead dried up demand for locally-made products; sales plunged in the weeks that followed.

“Our sales dropped by 60% in the first few days after the minister made his statements, then it went down to 40%,” said Chedid. “We are still smarting from the scandal, but our problems are not over yet.”

The ones that the ministry shuts down, mushroom in other places and in the basement of shops where they go undetected. “For a long time we have been calling on the ministry to control unlicensed ‘under the stairs’ producers, but it is unable to control the whole sector, particularly producers of unpackaged dairy products,” said Chedid. Unpackaged dairy products are banned under a four-year old law, which is not implemented forcefully by the agriculture ministry, he added.

Difficulty of controlling the dairy sector lies in the intertwining of authorities between the agriculture, health, industrial and economy and trade ministries. The agriculture ministry is responsible for supervising dairy farmers, the health ministry is tasked with controlling health standards, the industry ministry is responsible for granting licenses to big and medium sized dairy producers and the economy and trade ministry is supposed to catch any violators through its consumer protection department.

“The are some 12 main legal dairy producers – four of them have their own laboratories -which are licensed by the ministry of industry and 30 factories that produce raw materials or milk and are licensed by the agriculture ministry,” said Zuheir Berro, head of the non-governmental protection agency, Consumer Lebanon. “The 200 other unlicensed dairy units work on a temporary basis and are responsible for the sector’s problems, because their health standards are not controlled.”

Small producers accuse big ones of mass producing dairy goods in modern factories without adhering to standards while big producers accuse small producers of churning out contaminated dairy products. Little wonder there is no esprit de corps within the sector.

“There are small dairy units that are unlicensed and there is also unfair competition from big producers,” said Idriss. “Retail chains also are not paying dairy producers on time and they sometimes have to wait five to six months to receive payments for their perishable goods.”

Some dairy producers accuse big dairy companies of deliberately selling at low prices and forcing smaller ones to neglect health standards to sell cheap products. “It is an abnormal situation,” said Ara Baghdassarian, head of Karoun dairies, Lebanon’s oldest dairy producer, which has stopped producing dairy goods until the market is settled. “Some of the big producers are selling their products without adhering to quality control, falsifying the nutritional contents and tampering with the production dates.”

Not true say big producers, who argue they are complying more than any other party with the standards. “We support the minister’s statements because the industry has to be controlled and unlicensed small producers have to be stopped,” said Marc Waked, marketing and sales manager at Liban Lait, one of Lebanon’s largest dairy producers, which has franchises to produce Yoplait and Candia products in Lebanon. Liban Lait was establish in 2000 at a cost of $30 million – it has yet to make money.

“We have our own farms and we control the production of our milk. We are also exporting some products to Syria, where the issue of price is a problem and recently to Iraq.”

Liban Lait is relatively a new establishment that was set up in 2000 with a $30 million investment and has yet to get a return on it. Meanwhile, both big and small producers face competition from cheap goods coming from Syria and Cyprus and some depend on small milk producers to process their cheese and other dairy products.

“There is no real control of food safety in Lebanon and that’s why it is important to push through the food safety bill and create a regulatory authority along the lines of the Food and Drug Administration in the United States in cooperation with the private sector,” said Berro.

Dairy producers are pushing for the creation of a milk board made up of government and private sector officials as a first step toward regulating the industry. But they are not the only party supporting this idea. A study conducted last year by a French dairy expert on behalf of the syndicate said the creation of the milk board could help win back consumer confidence and improve the quality of goods.

“The creation of a dairy board could therefore be a fair track to concentrate donor money and skills in the same direction,” said Francois-Xavier Pinard’s in the study. His analysis of the dairy industry was not all doom and gloom. “Has Lebanon achieved a fair basis for further investments in the milk and dairy sector?” Pinard asked in his study. “The answer is ‘Yes.’ All development programs and private investments in farms, dairies and in structured retail chains show a potential competitive 20,000 hectares/25,000 cows/140,000 tons of milk produced by specialized farms.”

The expert estimated the value of the dairy market at retail value to be around $200 million and the present value of small and medium-sized enterprises producing dairy to be up to $47 million. He recommended that dairy producers try to wean off consumers from using imported powdered milk, promote dairy products through a dairy board and sustain intensive dairy farming for 25,000 specialized cows. Convincing consumers to abandon powdered milk is one common interest shared by small and big dairy producers. “Why should Lebanon spend each year $50 million on imported powdered milk?” asked Waked. “Only five percent of Lebanon’s milk market of 80 million liters is fresh liquid milk.”

Each year, Lebanon imports around $150 million worth of dairy products and exports only $3 million, based on customs figures. Nonetheless, Pinard portrayed in his study a bright view of the dairy sector’s capabilities, a view shared by Berro.

“In general, the health standards of Lebanon’s dairy sector are much better than other products where the use of pesticide is quite prevalent,” said Berro. “Even cases of food poisoning from dairy products in Lebanon are much fewer than in some other Western countries, where there are rampant food poisoning cases despite the existence of regulatory authorities.”

But Berro said dairy producers have to strive to improve their standards if they want to export goods to international markets to counter lower domestic purchasing power and compete with the flood of cheap imports once tariff barriers are removed in the near future.

“In a few years time, tariffs on European dairy imports will be removed under Lebanon’s Association Agreement with the European Union and the Lebanese market could become flooded with European dairy goods,” said Berro. “Consumers will not hesitate to buy European goods instead of locally-made ones and the local dairy producers will suffer even more.”

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Q&A: Gebran Tueni

by Executive Contributor February 1, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

How do the Lebanese print media survive?

The word survive is very accurate. Before the war, the Lebanese media was flourished in terms of sales and advertising revenues. Unfortunately, during the war we had to spend all our reserves and now we are surviving. The print media market is depressed not just in Lebanon but worldwide has fallen by something like 25% to 30%, the broadsheet media and the dailies, that is. But because of the political and economic situation in Lebanon and the region, the advertising market has dropped – by something like 35% to 40% for television and 25% for the print media. We face a major problem with all our budgets, short-term, mid-term, and long-term. At the end of 2003, we had lost something like $1.5 million in advertising revenues. That’s a big amount in the print media.

How do you cover your losses?

Our first step, years ago, was to increase the price of the newspaper, from LL1,000 to LL2,000. Then, we increased the capital of the company that publishes An Nahar. We knocked on the door of people who were interested. We integrated them into our family. And of course, in buying the shares, they paid a different price than the normal price. We’ve been able to bring in something like $10 million, just to cover all the losses of the war, to ‘clean’ everything, and to prepare the budget for the next six years.

Has your dependence on investors interfered with the paper’s independence?

In our case, no, because in the charter of the company it is written very clearly that the policy of the paper is decided by the journalists and the Tueni family – because it’s a family business – based on the mission set out in 1948 by my grandfather, Gebran Tueni, concerning the role of An Nahar, the defense of press freedom, and the defense of the integrity of Lebanon. Anyone who buys shares in An Nahar must agree to this.

Is there an advertising monopoly?

I don’t oblige advertisers to advertise in An Nahar. And our prices are high. There is no monopoly of advertising. People can compare and choose.

Why has Prime Minister Rafik Hariri relinquished his 34.5% stake in An Nahar?

I don’t know but I’m happy. He has his own reasons. I had mine for buying back the shares. A lot of people told me I was stupid, but I said: No, no, no, when you want to pay for your freedom, it costs you a lot. I don’t think he was very happy to give them up. I was very happy, but you should know that the price was very high. I can’t tell you how high. But it was a very high price, a really high price. He did good business. But I think politically it was good for An Nahar. A long time ago, I asked him to sell me back the shares, but he didn’t want to at the time. Now I think he feels that the policy of An Nahar for the time being is very independent and maybe he thought that he cannot exert pressure to change that policy. Maybe he thought that it was too much for him to support.

Is there any truth to the suggestion that he relinquished the shares under pressure, indirect or otherwise, from Syria because An Nahar espouses an anti-Syria editorial line?

That is pure fantasy. That would mean that today, I can thank the people I attack in my newspaper for exerting pressure on someone to sell me shares, so that am now more independent. It was a very positive point for the readers also who wrote to congratulate me. Now I’m going to sell shares with the new philosophy that no one person can own more than 30% of An Nahar.

Why was it so important to you to get Hariri’s shares back?

It is very important for a journalist to feel that they are completely independent, that they are not dependent on the money of someone, that no one can say to them: I am a partner, especially when your partner is not always on the same political line.

Did Hariri ever try to exert pressure?

Frankly, yes and no. The relationship was comfortable, though. He endured much more from me than I endured from him, because he knew that he couldn’t exert pressure.

Does Antoine Choueiri have an unfair grip on media advertising?

How? Ok, he represents An Nahar, L’Orient Le Jour, As Safir, but I chose him, he didn’t choose me. Nobody obliged me to go to Choeuiri. I went to Choueiri because I think he is doing very good business. It’s a business contract between him and me. I chose him to manage my ads because I don’t want to create an advertising department in my newspaper. If someone has a newspaper or television station and cannot attract advertising, that’s not my fault. Let him improve his product, convince people that he is number one. Either we are in a free economic system, a free market, or not. This is not dumping. Before [we dealt with] Choueiri, we used to have our own in-house ad department, and it didn’t work. We had the problem then of going out into the market to collect payment. We need a cash flow.

Are the orders of the press and of journalists doing their job as they should?

They are doing the minimum and the minimum is never enough. In this business it’s never enough. With respect to major problems regarding press freedom, they are doing their job. We were able, through the Orders, to get the press law amended. Now, Lebanon’s press law – and I am against any press law – is a good press law. The government can no longer send someone to prison as they do with the audiovisual law, which is a very bad law. But none of the TV owners has presented an amendment of this stupid law, which allows the government to close down TV stations.

How did you feel about the arrest of New TV owner Tahseen Khayyat?

I’m against the arrest of any journalist, of any owner of a TV station or newspaper. I think the TV law in Lebanon is a very bad law. I can tomorrow morning say you are an Israeli agent and put you in jail for 24 hours.

So Tahseen Khayyat’s arrest constituted harassment?

I think it was a form of harassment.

Is this good for Lebanon’s image?

It is very bad for Lebanon’s image, for people to see, as well, that MTV is still closed because our government, our president, was upset with MTV’s policy. The government is trying to bring us back to the Middle Ages. It affects the credibility of the government, of the president, of the prime minister, of the general assembly.

Why is this happening?

Because we don’t have politicians in Lebanon. This is not an independent state. These people have been designated to do a certain job, by the Syrians.

What is your reaction to Walid bin Talal’s purchase of a 49% stake in LBC International?

It’s good. It’s good to see that Lebanese television can attract the interest of foreign investors. If it was a bad TV station, bin Talal would not have invested in it. It’s good for the sector, of course, good for the brand name of Lebanon, good for the whole industry.

What is your evaluation of Walid bin Talal’s newly-formed 24-hour Rotana music channel?

It’s good because I think that Walid bin Talal will be able to help a lot of Arab artists, who do not have the money to produce clips. I hope that we will have real artists and not popcorn artists and video-clip artists.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Is it worth the risk?

by Tony Hchaime February 1, 2004
written by Tony Hchaime

Fluctuating performances, a harsh competitive environment, a limited market, and high threats of terrorism and war are just a few of the critical factors affecting both the current operations of foreign banks in Lebanon, and their future strategies with that regard.

Major shock waves have hit foreign banks in Lebanon over the past few years, ranging from the economic recession plaguing the country since 2000, to the threat of terrorism and heightened war activity in the region. Foreign banks in Lebanon, as in other countries in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, suffered a number of terrorist attacks or attempted attacks. A major explosion at HSBC headquarters in Turkey late in 2003 sent all European and American banks in the Middle East scrambling for additional security measures, to the extent of almost paralyzing daily operations. In the case of Lebanon, this has translated into armed guards protecting the entrances of European and American banks, in addition to those of Arab countries considered at risk of terrorism. It remains to be seen, however, how such banks have coped with years of struggle and hurdles, how they have performed, and what are their strategies for the near future.

Numerous banking professionals have addressed the presence of foreign banks, often criticizing their inability to compete with the major local institutions, and their overall risk aversion towards lending and retail banking.

While the end of the war in Lebanon saw the return of a number of foreign banks to the “lucrative” financial sector in Lebanon, the trend has been reversing over the past four years, with a number of banks abandoning their attempt to establish a significant presence in the country. At present, there are 12 foreign banks operating in the country – of which seven are Arab or Iranian – compared to 17 in 1999. The latest foreign bank to shut its operations in Lebanon was Dutch banking giant ABN Amro NV, which sold off its assets to Byblos Bank SAL and halted operations at the end of 2001.

Total assets of foreign banks in Lebanon have shrunk by more than 24% between 2000 and 2002, reaching $3.9 billion, compared to a growth of 15% for the Lebanese banking sector, and 20% for Alpha Group banks. Accordingly, total deposits at foreign banks in Lebanon have also fallen by more than 24% between 2000 and 2002, to $3.3 billion, compared to a growth of 15% for the Lebanese banking sector and 18% for Alpha Group banks. Loans and discounts have also dropped in tandem with the shrinkage in customer deposits and total assets.

Of the existing foreign banks in Lebanon, the three largest (Arab Bank, BNPI, HSBC) account for close to 80% of both total assets and total customer deposits of foreign banks in Lebanon. Arab Bank is the largest, with total assets of $1.5 billion, and customer deposits of $1.3 billion – thus making it party to the elite Alpha Group of banks. Furthermore, Arab Bank enjoys a market share of 2.9% of customer deposits domestically, compared to 1.8% for BNPI and 1.2% for HSBC. Other foreign banks in Lebanon, such as Citibank, Saudi National Commercial Bank, and National Bank of Kuwait, play a much more limited role in Lebanon, with respective market shares not exceeding 1%.

The overall performance of foreign banks in Lebanon is mostly geared towards that of Arab Bank, HSBC, and BNPI. Significant improvements in profitability, resulting mainly from better lending strategies and lower cost of funds, have contributed substantially to the bottom line of Arab Bank and HSBC, especially between the years 2001 and 2002. On an overall note, growth in the net earnings of foreign banks in Lebanon has fluctuated widely over the past few years. The year 2000 saw a 10% drop in net earnings, which was followed by a significant 51% gain in 2001, led by HSBC’s ability to turn an $11 million loss in 2000 into a $2.5 million net gain for 2001. Things improved in the year 2002, with net income for foreign banks in Lebanon jumped by a staggering 68% to reach $35.6 million. This growth was heavily influenced by the performance of Arab Bank and HSBC, which saw their bottom line increase by 206% and 167%, respectively, to $10.9 million and $6.7 million. Bearing such fluctuations in mind, the compounded average growth in net income for foreign banks in Lebanon between 1999 and 2002, remains in excess of 25% annually. This compared to a shrinkage in net income of 9% for the whole banking sector in Lebanon over the same period.

Excluding such outliers as Arab Bank and HSBC, however, the sector’s net earnings have grown by a more modest compounded average of 3% per year over the same period. While basically contributing the majority of revenues to foreign and local banks alike, interest income has played a minimal role in the increased profitability of foreign banks in Lebanon over the past few years. In fact, interest income for the sector as a whole grew by merely 6% annually on average between 1999 and 2002, compared to the 25% growth in net income. With the high number of banks operating in Lebanon creating strong competition, and foreign banks’ common policy of avoiding interest war with local banks, most opted to offer value added private banking and other specialized banking services. Backed by their international networks, foreign banks have been able to tap into a niche of banking services yet not fully supported by local banks. The foreign banking sector’s net financial income grew by an average of 10% between 1999 and 2002, while net commission income grew by an average of 8% over the same period.

As previously stated, foreign banks in Lebanon have attempted to tap into a niche market of private banking and other specialized services in which the Lebanese market is not yet saturated. In such a sense, foreign banks are dwarfed by local entities in terms of deposits and loans, while they remain highly competitive in other banking services. Such a strategy has, to a certain extent, limited their direct exposure to political and economic risks in the country, while, on the other hand, limited their ability to achieve sizeable income. While this approach may have a certain risk-control aspect to it, its restrictions on growth and gain in market share has severely misrepresented the attractiveness of Lebanon to foreign banks with, as of yet, no presence in the country. In such a sense, the highly competitive environment and the resulting slim margins put Lebanon at a competitive disadvantage to other emerging markets such as Africa, Qatar, Russia, and Eastern Europe.

These developments have been accelerated by the threat of terrorism against western interests globally, which have partially led many international banking institutions to scale down on their operations in emerging markets. As such, Europe’s leading banking institution, ABN Amro, has opted to shut down its operations in a number of countries in the region, including Lebanon. In addition, it has been recently rumored that a number of international banks are seeking to sell their equity stakes in major Lebanese banks. Although such developments may be misinterpreted initially as originating from domestic or regional factors of various natures, it is rather, a result of revisions to strategies regarding emerging markets.

Nevertheless, the activities of foreign banks in Lebanon are certainly not on a definite shrinkage route. In fact, a number of foreign banks, namely HSBC and Standard Chartered, have successfully clawed their way into a decent market share. Their strategy was aggressive and focused on services – including, credit cards, internet banking, investment products, and other special banking packages. Needless to say, the growth of foreign banks in Lebanon, or lack thereof, does have a direct impact on the Lebanese banking sector as a whole. In essence, large Arab banks or sizeable international banks grabbing a foothold in Lebanon would put pressure on the smaller Lebanese banks, thus enticing consolidation in the banking sector – a development long sought after by Riad Salemeh and the central bank.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Overvalued aid deals

by Michael Young February 1, 2004
written by Michael Young

In early December 2003, a Pentagon decision outraged a number of American allies. US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz issued a memo stating that several countries that had opposed America’s war in Iraq, including France, Germany, Canada, Russia and Mexico, would be barred from bidding for $18.6 billion in US-financed Iraqi reconstruction contracts. By January, the Bush administration’s mood had changed. It became clear that the stated rationale for the decision, namely that it would protect “the essential security interests of the United States”, somehow implied that countries historically close to the US, somehow threatened its national security. This was a bit too much even for noteworthy Bush administration unilateralists. At the Summit of the America’s in January, President George W. Bush rescinded the ban on Canadian companies, amid signs from the Defense Department that three or four states in all might be removed from the list of proscribed nations. If that’s the case, then it’s good news, because aside from the fact that the move was no more than petty payback, it undermined one of the key things that Bush and his acolytes claim to be trying to spread in Iraq: the benefits of the free market.

Writing in the New York Times, Nancy Birdsall and Todd Moss of the Center for Global Development in Washington noted: “All the fuss must seem rather strange to the more than four billion people in the developing world. After all, restricting overseas development contracts to domestic bidders – so called ‘tied aid’ – has been standard practice in the aid world for the past 40 years.” However, the authors didn’t defend the habit; they argued it led to one of the main problems in current aid spending practice -and in the Bush administration’s decision to bar non-American competitors: restricting bidders increases costs by limiting competition.

As Birdsall and Moss observed: “Advocates of improving aid effectiveness have long argued to eliminate the practice of tied aid – which, according to one economic study, reduces its value by 15% to 30%. Untying aid would allow poor countries to purchase the most efficient and cost-effective goods and services necessary for their development projects. That makes sense because the real point of aid is to help people escape from poverty. But old habits die hard.”

That may not matter much if American companies, particularly ones financing presidential election campaigns, benefit. However, as the post-war situation in Iraq has dragged on, and as American taxpayers have been compelled to pay tens of billions of dollars for Iraqi reconstruction, the matter of financial transparency has become highly sensitive politically. Very simply, voters are not keen to fatten the accounts of American multinationals like Halliburton, which recently overcharged the Pentagon by $61 million through a competition-free contract, even if the prevailing, and fallacious, wisdom in the administration is that what is good for American companies is good for America.

As writer Matt Welch observed in Beirut’s Daily Star, conflating companies with countries is “a marriage which the trade liberalization project has long been trying to de-couple.” The problem is that “where large companies are so intertwined with the identity of their countries […] their governments won’t allow them to fail.” This means that the pathologies of private firms instead of being filtered out by market forces are enhanced by them, so that mismanaged or corrupt companies survive.

A second problem is that it makes no sense to peddle the advantages of free minds and free markets to the Iraqis, if half of that equation (or indeed all of it) is ignored. From the outset, the American-led reconstruction process in Iraq has been dipped in controversy, some of it unjustified. And in a country like Iraq, where animosity to the U.S. presence is rising and where unemployment may be as high as 50 percent, according to a UN-World Bank report (including an estimated 400,000 soldiers), even the semblance of financial impropriety can be politically disastrous.

It is to avoid this that, for example, George Soros’ Open Society Institute instituted the Iraq Revenue Watch (IRW) project, to “monitor Iraq’s oil industry to ensure that it is managed with the highest standards of transparency and that the benefits of national oil wealth flow to the people of Iraq.” As IRW remarked on its website, implicitly linking transparency and political stability: “In many parts of the world, the lack of proper stewardship over oil resources has resulted in corruption, the continued impoverishment of populations, and abuses of political power… If Iraq is to become an open, democratic society it will need to develop transparent accountable institutions for ensuring honest management of oil revenues.”

Economic policies born of pique are rarely profitable, and the Pentagon’s intervention in limiting participants in Iraqi reconstruction was surely an example. The Bush administration has backtracked, and might console itself by recognizing that there are two beneficiaries: American taxpayers, who will get more aid for their money; and Iraqi citizens, who will get more money for their aid.

Michael Young is a contributing editor at Reason magazine in the US.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Yet another bad year

by Faysal Badran February 1, 2004
written by Faysal Badran

It has become customary, in the first few weeks of January, to lay out forecasts for the rest of the year. Analysts from the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) to the World Bank get the chance to wipe clean their slate and begin a new framework, maybe with a little carried over optimism from the holiday season. Not so for Lebanon, where the omens from the international financial community do not augur well as, contemplating the undelivered promises of Paris 2, we are left to ponder the immediate future with few signals of any improvement, and frankly, not much momentum except hope, as most of the body politic focuses on the presidential possibilities and the never ending “regional circumstances”.

The EIU report makes sober reading as it predicts Lebanon’s fiscal drama to continue unabated. The 2004 budget contained nothing that would change this trajectory, with the government set to overshoot its 2003 targets by a whopping 30%. With the poor state of the economy, which is growing only in a statistical sense, the fiscal drag is worse than ever. Debt servicing is at a staggering 42% of total public expenditures, and 15% of forecast GDP. This makes it is hard to imagine a worse situation especially in the context of the continuous bipolarity between president and prime minister, which seems to have all but paralyzed the political process. At a time when one would expect political debate to be the engine of reform and the budget a pivotal point of discussion for the future, the bickering continues to “crowd out” real economic imperatives, and the media, and public appear mesmerized by the nonsense of elections. At a time when we need the troika machine to be well lubricated, the divisions intensify and credibility, especially on Paris 2 pledges goes by the wayside.

While it is true that the $3.5 odd billion from the banks will provide some relief to public finances, the whole economic and fiscal architecture seems more fragile than ever, with debt making any stimulus from government impossible.

The tourism sector, which fared well in 2003, with approximately 850,000 visitors (a shade under the 1 million trumpeted by the government), is possibly the only bright spot. Mind you, none of the improvements are due to any policies or plans by the snoozing leadership and the packed hotels, restaurants, and beaches are pleasing, but are not sufficient to revive an economy. With many Arabs preferring the proximity of Lebanon, in the current state of the world, their influx has brought some deposits to the banking sector, and emptied some hotel mini bars, is but a drop in the ocean. It simply isn’t something that can trickle down enough to affect economic growth. Though many politicians point to tourism as a potential savior, the figures suggest otherwise. What has kept the economy from completely imploding is a phenomenon that is totally beyond the government’s reach. It is primarily the inflow of expatriate money. This underground economy, if you will, has maintained many households’ purchasing power, and has served to offset the contractionary effect of fiscal tightening and high youth unemployment. The end game is really the ability to attract investment, and in this category, the signals into 2004 are not encouraging. The EIU tells us that commercial bank credit to the private sector, a gauge of investment activity as well as the pace of domestic spending, had fallen in the last quarter of 2003, and that despite a huge drop in interest rates. This is alarming, frankly, as one would think that a 7% across the board fall in borrowing rates. Even more eye popping, was the 90% fall in net credit to the industrial sector in the first three quarters, and of course, more deterioration in the agricultural credit numbers. So much for policy. Construction, more a testament to continued private investment in real estate than any government initiatives, continued to fare better, and may carry on into 2004. On the trade front, a falling Euro may bring some relief, but overall, the situation is fairly benign and does not presage any significant improvement in spending.

Having looked, briefly, at the key data points, it is worth pointing out that the most relevant issue for the Lebanese economy going forward is not so much the actual economy but confidence. This is where there has been the most clear devastation. Confidence in the ability of the current caretakers to come up with workable plans, and in the notion of political and institutional reform is far more important for Lebanon. Without credibility, that somewhere in the future, change is on the way, direct investment, the lifeline of any emerging economy, will lag. The political bickering, and the accompanying economic reform paralysis are likely to converge with deteriorating debt conditions, and impose a serious speed limit to real economic growth. Attracting investment without at least creating an impression of political movement is a futile endeavor. Investment requires, most importantly, delivering on promises, and creating the right environment. The telecom fiasco, the lost opportunity on privatizations in general, and the continued tribalism of the political system are, for 2004, the natural obstacles to any real improvement in the economic fortunes of the country. Meanwhile, the drain of young Lebanese talent continues, and the banking system, stuck with the debt addiction of the public sector is unlikely to provide the necessary catalyst to private enterprise and capital spending.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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