Shopping month is upon us again. But this year it has come almost as a surprise. In mid-January there had still been no pre-festival publicity.
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ARAB COUNTRIES: Insurance Density and Insurance Penetration (SOURCE: Muhanna Foundation) |
This could be a very opportune time to take a good long look at the Middle Eastern insurance industry, where far-reaching changes are expected region-wide. On the static side of how things are, stand the numbers on territory, population and economic performance, in relation to insurance. According to data circulated by the General Arab Insurance Federation (GAIF), these basics are a surface of 14 million square kilometers, a populace of 300 million people and a compounded GDP exceeding $700 billion, of which 1%, or $7 billion, are spent on insurance. In per-country averages, citizens of Arab states each allocate between $5 and $243 for general insurance, with average annual spending computing at $22 per capita for the region, says GAIF.
Studies from the other side indicate that the Arab contribution to global insurance premiums is a mere 0.22% overall, split into just under half a percent of non-life and less than a tenth of a percent of life premiums (2002 figures, as presented in an overview of the Lebanese insurance sector by financial institution Saradar Investhouse).
In global comparison, the Arab region is critically under insured, but so is most of the world. The average Swiss citizen, for example, spends about $5,000 annually on insurance
As weak demand in the Lebanese car market has taken its toll on dealer profitability, new opportunities emerged through several automotive brands that had been under-represented in Lebanon, or are new to the country. To address niches, distributors played their strengths, and some opted to mobilize synergies that they might not otherwise have utilized. In reviewing distributor strategies for compact, mid-sized and luxurious automobiles, EXECUTIVE talked to distributors of cars that range from the very new to the legendary, asking them about their experiences, alliances and expectations.
Think small, think smart
In the small car segment, the latest marque to enter the Lebanese market is ambitious and daring, while building upon a huge name and innovative technology. Smart cars are a division of Daimler Chrysler and a tremendous success story in Europe. Lebanon’s Mercedes importers, Toufic Gargour & Fils (TGF), believe that the Smart concept will work here as well and they have committed to a substantial investment to position the car in the local market.
“After five weeks on the market, sales are already up to our expectations, and a bit more,” said Cesar Aoun, Smart brand manager at Gargour. “We are really optimistic about the trend that we will create with Smart cars.”
If Smart has a beginner’s handicap in the Lebanese market, its main challenge lies in the misperception that a small car is neither powerful nor safe, Aoun said. In his opinion, Lebanese customers had an incorrect first impression of the Smart car, because gray market importers had been bringing the vehicle into the country for about one year without communicating the brand identity. Some people mistook it for an electric car.
In reality, the current second generation base model of Smart – a 2.5 meter short two-seater with high seating profile and plenty of visibility – is powered by a Mercedes Benz manufactured engine that has been prepped up after the first generation achieved remarkable sales results and reviews. TGF’s first priority after launching sales in mid September was to present the brand value of Smart, as a car that is safe and performs.
Official entry of the brand to the Lebanese market was somewhat delayed due to factors the importer would not specify. However, the late start brings the benefit that the Smart range has in the meanwhile increased to the Smart roadster and roadster-coupe, very sportive versions of the Smart concept. And TGF is expecting Smart to really climb in local sales with the introduction of a four-seat version in April of next year and a four-wheel drive Smart in 2005. With these latter models, the distributor aims to also break into a market share held presently by some compact cars, and with the complete palette of Smart vehicles, TGF want to conquer a handsome share of new car sales in Lebanon – at least 5% by early 2006, Aoun said. For the moment, however, the manager is treading with a certain restraint on the marketing front. For instance, he is reluctant to widely discuss the price of the vehicles until consumers have become familiar with the value that the Smart offers for the purchase amount. TGF is constructing a new showroom in the Beirut Central District to sell Smart where its main market is: the city. The facility is not large but in a key location at the portside Saifi entrance of the BCD and represents a substantial investment, the exact height of which the manager did not want to disclose before the project’s completion. The showroom will be dedicated exclusively to Smart cars.
Until the new showroom opens at the end of the year, Smart cars reside in a temporary and slightly unusual cohabitation with Mercedes vehicles in the main Dora showroom of Gargour. The arrangement is extraordinary because worldwide and in Lebanon, Smart and Mercedes are careful to maintain separate brand identities. “The image of Smart is totally independent from Mercedes Benz,” Aoun said, and TGF therefore developed a distinct Smart team that will present the make to customers. The brand separation does not extend to the back office and maintenance, however. As the three-cylinder engine of the Smart is a Mercedes product, the two brands share much of the same diagnostic equipment, and the Smart team here also wants to emphasize that drivers of these cars benefit from the after sales service at TGF, which has become a benchmark for service quality in the region. Economical, practical and innovative fun, are the three markers, which Aoun is attempting to set for the identity of smart in the Lebanese market, first to individual clients. However, the company also harbors a number of ideas for bringing Smart cars and Lebanese companies together.
Middle of the road
The segment of middle-of-the-road sized vehicles with their sedan, hatchback and station wagon varieties is especially crowded with contenders. The new competitor here is Skoda. The brand is no stranger to the Lebanese market but the name has been up for rebirth after the Czech car manufacturer was taken over by Volkswagen. The chance of introducing the new flair of Skoda to the local market enticed two of Lebanon’s big car agents to launch a joint venture, VW/Audi/Porsche importers Kettaneh and Mercedes/Maybach dealers Gargour. Since beginning of this year, the partners operate a Skoda Showroom on the Damascus Highway in Hazmieh, under the joint venture name Kettaneh-Gargour Automotive.
The objective of the Skoda dealership is to replicate the success that the automaker has had elsewhere since VW took the reigns at the Eastern European company. “The Skoda today is a well-sold car in many markets,” the joint venture’s marketing manager, Gergi Murr, told EXECUTIVE. “In Lebanon, the brand is also promising. However, we should give it some time.”
The distributor started to approach the local market seven months ago. This first year, it imported the Skoda Fabia and Octavia models in well equipped configurations with wide sales appeal. The priciest Skoda model, Prestige, is yet to be introduced to Lebanon, but will probably be available next year. The manager declined to provide sales figures for the first half year of sales of the brand.
“When I think about Skoda, I think about a car that offers highly regarded VW technology and at the same time, benefits from the Skoda image of being a good deal,” said Murr, describing the marketing message of the brand. He was quick to ascertain that the distributor first imported a stock of spare parts even before bringing the cars into the country, to counter an image of difficulty in making spare parts available that Skoda had been stuck with in the past.
As equal partners in the Skoda distributorship, Kettaneh and Gargour could utilize their joint expertise to develop a strategy that would position Skoda cars in a cost-efficient, step-by-step development of the dealership and gradual marketing investments. Presently, the direct team at the sales outlet is relatively small, with six members in all. But because of its access to market studies and expertise at the parent companies, the Skoda dealership benefits from a much larger pool of resources without additional staff costs.
The advantages also register on the service side. For the start-up phase, cars sold at the Skoda dealership are being serviced at the facilities of Kettaneh automobiles with their specialization in maintenance of VW automobiles, to which the new Skodas are closely related. With time, plans are to establish an after-sales service facility at the dealership equipped for standard maintenance and small repairs. But for all major works on body or engine, the Kettaneh workshop will remain to be the brand’s service address. In realizing their joint venture as, in Murr’s words, “a heavy deal between two heavy dealers,” Kettaneh-Gargour Automotive took a road that could prove viable for establishing Skoda in the Lebanese market, even in times of tough competition and difficult market conditions. As for Murr, he sees no problems on the road ahead. “There is no obstacle,” he said, “just a lot of work to position this good product.”
Dream rides
At the top end of automobile dream lists comes Ferrari – the Italian marque with cult status – which is doing well in Lebanon only because manufacturer allocations are proportional to the market size. Beirut Ferrari dealer, GA Bazerji, is one of only 40 Ferrari distributors worldwide. “Considering that our country is a small market, our allocation is small,” said the company’s managing director, Nabil Bazerji. “We are succeeding in selling our allocation because it is really small.”
Out of Ferrari’s annual production of 3,500 road racers, the Italian company earmarks four to five vehicles for Lebanon, where there is an established clientele of 70 plus individuals with the necessary means to own them. For Maserati, the other premier sports car brand sold by Bazerji, the number of vehicles sold wavers around 10 cars per year. As to the reasons why a customer will buy a Ferrari or Maserati, there are few surprises. The owner of the Ferrari will relish in the excitement of hearing that throaty roar of the engine, and he also cherishes the “pleasure of driving the world’s best sports car,” Bazerji said, but leaves no doubt that the main reason is image. “It is first of all a status symbol.” The importer has held the Ferrari dealership for three years and the Maserati agency since 1968, in addition to long-standing agency contracts for Lancia and Suzuki. Marketing the super luxury sports cars is a different endeavor from marketing the latter makes, which generally follow the advertising and communications strategies for automotive sales. The market approach with Maserati is selective, through the media targeting of high net worth individuals, along with event sponsorship and measures to build brand awareness. With Ferrari, the image is pretty much preset as that of a Formula 1 racing stable that builds cars mainly to finance its existence on the circuit. The manufacturer handles much of their communications directly, and Bazerji participates through being present in motor shows and organizing the occasional event for Ferrari owners, such as a dinner or a cultural rally.
There is no denying that buyers of a luxury sports car must be wealthy, but it is a misconception that they would dismiss their sense of cost scrutiny when it comes to pursuing their penchant. And that means that the super luxury sports car segment is no less dampened by the current taxation regime than other new car sales. While the country professes adhering to free market principles, Lebanon’s taxation system leans toward socialist style indiscriminate penalization of people who can afford to buy luxury products, Bazerji said, calling this approach “not correct.”
According to the dealer, the massive taxation resulting in an 80% surcharge on the factory price of your average Ferrari has made Lebanese buyers reluctant or unable to pay these charges even if they can afford an expensive car. These customers consequently reach for a vehicle residing one or two price tiers below what they would choose without the high taxation.
But Bazerji claims that in the luxury car segment, a further huge loss of opportunities lies in the erosion of sales to wealthy part-time residents. Arabs who own summer homes in Lebanon are deterred from buying cars locally and keeping them here because of the high annual vehicle registration fees. It is cheaper for them to have their luxury cars shipped in from their home country and drive them with foreign license plates, said Bazerji. “Hundreds of units are imported and re-exported every year, and the Lebanese government gets no revenue from these cars.” Not to mention that local dealers lose out on the chance to sell sports cars to this summer clientele. They do not even gain income from servicing these cars because they are shipped back to their stables in the Gulf.
The story of Wael Hafez, the 21-year-old car dealer who fled Lebanon with reported debts of around $20 million, is a supreme HISTOIRE DE NOS TEMPS. Not only is it a story of personal greed, it also offers an insight into how the “used” luxury car market has become a magnet for those who seek glamour and a quick return on their money. Although nothing more than a insignificant footnote in history, it is a typical Lebanese story: bankers, cars dealers and private investors were all burned by a young man barely out of school, blinded by the shallow dividends that make up the modern Lebanese dream.
A scion of a respectable and wealthy family, Wael Hafez was elevated from small-time businessman to selling luxury cars bought mainly from disgraced banker Ibrahim Abou Ayache. In order to finance the purchase of these $50,000 to $250,000 dream machines, Hafez offered investors outrageous return on short-term loans.
“If you loaned him $100,000 he would immediately write you two post-dated checks for $60,000,” said one ex-associate. “He was offering the best interest rates on the planet.”
The system, essentially the final stages of an international money laundering operation, was straightforward. According to insiders, all of whom refused to be named (“These are powerful and dangerous people,” one said), Hafez would buy a car, worth say $100,000, for $75,000 from Abou Ayache, who had brought it from a dealer in Germany with money from Al Madina Bank. He would sell it at a shade under market value, take his cut and repay the loan. During its brief incarnation, Hafez’s Link Motors sold 500 between January and May 2003. “That is nearly as much as is sold by all the authorized dealers in Lebanon in a month,” said one insider. When Abou Ayache’s Al Madina bank went into receivership in Spring 2003, the boy who began his career by selling cars over the phone found himself facing millions of dollars worth of debts. In order to keep creditors at bay, Hafez resorted to check fraud. This desperate stopgap strategy, (Hafez thought his luck would turn), only delayed the inevitable. After he fled the country, his many creditors besieged the Hafez family home in Verdun demanding their dues, but his father, who is allegedly in regular contact with his fugitive son, has offered all the debtors approximately 20% of their claims. Despite the uproar from many who say they have lost their entire life savings or inheritances, many of those close to Hafez have little sympathy for those who claim they were ripped off.
“A lot of people made serious money out of Wael. If they lost on some of the final deals, so what,” shrugged one. “Anyway they were all grown up and they knew what they were doing and no one put a gun to their heads. No borrower gives those rates if there is no risk.”
Wael Hafez was born in 1982 into a respectable Beiruti family of Syrian origin. Educated initially at the International College, he later changed schools and was sent to the more conservative Al-Bayader High School. Those who know him say the move was for religious reasons, while others suggest he failed to make the grade at the hugely competitive IC and that Al-Bayader was the only school that would take him.
The family was very wealthy; reputed to be worth around $300 million, a fortune built up from the manufacturing of household appliances, refrigerators, ovens and washing machines. Life for young Wael was carefree. The family was initially liberal (Wael’s mother drove an open-top Mercedes) but in his teens the family became increasingly conservative. This new prohibition brought with it a new set of rules: no movies, no going out, and no girlfriends. However, at 17, Hafez fell in love with Zein Hrake, a 15-year-old, “open-minded” girl. Early marriage was nothing new to the Hafez family and when Wael turned 18, his mother agreed to the union.
Hafez briefly enrolled at LAU but never completed his first semester. Those who knew him then and know him now, remember him for his charm and charisma. “Wael is a genius,” said one fellow student. “Everything seems so easy for him. He is very positive and not afraid of anything.” The good news for Hafez was that his marriage meant freedom. He no longer lived with his parents and his monthly allowance had increased from $4,000 to $10,000. Leaving his by-now-veiled wife at home, he started going out at night with his friends.
According to many of those friends, Hafez found security and a sense of camaraderie in their presence, a welcome antidote to the conservatism of home life. At the height of his “reign,” he invited around a dozen friends on an all expenses paid trip to Dubai, where they stayed at the Burj El-Arab. “He paid for the lot,” said one ex-associate. “The food the booze and even the girls.” Those who were around him at this time, remember Hafez asked his friends to call him “the Prince” (IL BRINZ) and then surrounded himself with four bodyguards. He was styling himself and his lifestyle on that of Taha Qoleilat, the local businessman who seemingly came from nowhere to own five star hotels, restaurants, and luxury car dealerships. In fact, Hafez’s weakness was cars. “He was a car nerd,” said one friend. “He could dismantle and put back together any model you could name. He knew where every little nut and bolt went.”
Not surprisingly therefore, for a young man who would change his car up to four times a month, he began to get an understanding of how the car market worked, buying and selling cars. By September 2002, Hafez had established a cellular phone shop and two months later opened Savoy Café on Raouche, the motto of which was “Where friends become brothers.” Hafez would buy his cars from Highway Motors, owned by Fouad Kahwaji, who sourced luxury vehicles from Abou Ayache. In 2002, Hafez was introduced to Mohammed Doughan, Abou Ayache’s trusted fixer.
Abou Ayache needed a new outlet for his cars. Both Highway and Quatro Motors (owned by Taha Qoleilat) were beginning to raise eyebrows. He needed a front man who was young, ambitious, wealthy, and above reproach. Wael Hafez fitted the bill and in March 2003 Link Motors was established at the UNESCO intersection on an already established car lot rented from Abdel Salam Al Wazzan, whom Hafez would later rip off for $400,000. Hafez sought investors to finance the purchase of the cars. With the kind of returns he was offering, they were queuing up to give him their savings or inheritance.
One car dealer recounted how Wael once walked in his showroom carrying a paper bag filled with money. Emptying the bag on the floor, Hafez counted the bills, the total of which came to $500,000. He then called Tarek Issa, his Kurdish office boy, who came on a moped, threw the bag in his face and told him to go and deposit the money at the bank. Without a receipt, the boy put the bag between his legs and zigzagged his way through the traffic.
These vulgar displays of wealth convinced investors that Hafez was somehow connected with a money-laundering ring. “We assumed that he was well-protected, that’s why we trusted him with our savings and the savings of our relatives,” said one investor.
Hafez was a one-man money machine. Sitting in his office he would go through a checkbook in less than half an hour. This impressive movement of funds did not escape the attention of the Al Ahli International Bank, which by now had identified Hafez as a blue chip client.
In late April 2003, with the indictment of Abou Ayache, Hafez’s mini empire began to crumble. “The cars dried up and there were loans to be paid back,” said one associate. “He had been overspending, which didn’t help matters.” He certainly had. In the fine tradition of Lebanese excess, Hafez had displayed rare vulgarity. On one occasion, he ordered four Quads worth $12,000 each from Itani, and which were only used once and then given away. On another, after his morning jog, he went into Aïshti in Verdun, where none of the sales staff paid him much attention. Hafez, presumably irked at the lack of respect, proceeded to spend $17,000 and ordered the shop manager to carry the bags up to his apartment.
But by now the chickens had come home to roost. As a stopgap Hafez resorted to check kiting, a process whereby a person with accounts in two banks can create an illusion of money in his account. A check drawn on the first bank is deposited with the second bank and before the check reaches the first bank for payment, a check drawn on the second bank is deposited to the first bank. If that bank is willing to give immediate credit in the interim, the person can use the bank’s money without first providing collateral and without paying interest. This scheme can go on as long as the person keeps depositing checks in both banks and both banks believe there is money behind the checks. However, instead of using two banks Hafez is alleged to have used two accounts in the same branch, a claim that casts doubt on the bank’s later contention that it was unaware of his activities. Using this method, Hafez was able to hold off creditors. The bank, which until that point had been satisfied with the millions that he allegedly passed through his account, was presumably cutting its star client some slack. During this period he was able to generate enough money, thorough gullible investors, to pay the alleged $20 million dollars he is thought to have owed Abou Ayache. By this time, the checks to his investors were being broken down into smaller amounts and post-dated over longer periods. In the last weeks Hafez was working long hours and living on Red Bull, while staying at the presidential suite at the Mövenpick Hotel. Friends said that he was looking stressed and tired. Then, when the checks started to bounce and with only the clothes on his back, he and his wife fled the country on June 2. “His family told him to go,” said one close friend. “They need time to sort out his affairs and this is why they are handling his debtors”
The fallout has been considerable. The Al Ahli International Bank, with whom Hafez deposited up to $45 million over a period of less than six months, were quick to place any knowledge of Hafez’s check kiting scams on the shoulders of its branch manager Samir Tutunji. For his part Tutunji claims that the incriminating bounced checks found in his possession were given to him by the bank to follow up on and that the Hafez account was handled from the head office in Bab Idriss. Either way, the bank appears to have been negligent in its surveillance of Hafez’s banking activities.
Hafez’s brief incarnation as a small time tycoon had come to an end. Those of his debtors who have not accepted the 20% pay-off are seeking, through the Lebanese courts, an international arrest warrant to be issued. Khaled Dairaki, one of Hafez’s two trusted associates (the other was Tarek Issa the office boy), was approached by the family to retrieve the post-dated checks. The family promised that all monies owed to Dairaki – a reported $600,000 – would be honored. The well-connected Dairaki was able to get back a reported $11 million worth of checks but is reported to have been given the runaround by the Hafez family when it came to his own debts. Finally Dairaki’s patience ran out and, through his lawyers, issued seven writs against Hafez, one of which led to the sealing of his apartment and the selling off of assets. A nation’s moral compass can be gauged by the caliber of its heroes. In more developed nations, heroes set the benchmark for those to come. They may have suffered for a cause, encouraged the underprivileged, set new standards of sporting excellence, pushed back artistic boundaries or simply demonstrated such distinction in their individual fields as to have left us gasping and inspired at their accomplishments. In Lebanon, it seems that our heroes can be crooked, corrupt and downright nasty, just as long as they are rich.
The Automobile Importers Association teams up all local car agents who hold distributor contracts with international auto manufacturers. Avidly working to represent the interests of these primary agents, the AIA emphasizes a unified presentation of official importer concerns to the media and Lebanese public. EXECUTIVE talked to the president of the AIA, Samir Homzi.
E: What are the association’s main concerns?
SH: Our aim is to make new cars available to all people of all budgets. New car dealers are today making vehicles available in a price range that starts at around $5,000 to $6,000. These are economical, trouble-free new cars that consume very little unleaded gasoline. They are sold with manufacturer warranties and with payment arrangements over five years that make for monthly payments of $100 or $125 to families with a lower income.
E: How long does it take before new models are available in the local market?
SH: Sometimes new cars are launched in Lebanon prior to Geneva, Frankfurt, and Paris and in some instances, new cars have been launched in Lebanon for the Middle East and for the whole world. In many instances, new models are launched in Europe prior to being introduced to the Middle East. This is for technical reasons, whereby the manufacturer would like to optimize the vehicle for this area.
E: Turning to recent developments of automotive sales, is it correct that the association has observed a decrease of new car sales by 50% or more when comparing annual sales in 2002 with those in 1997 or 1998?
SH: The figures definitely went down. They went down first of all because of all the taxation. Vehicles are overtaxed in Lebanon. We are paying high customs duties in Lebanon, on top of which we are paying VAT, on top of which we are paying registration fees.A country like Lebanon deserves to have much lighter taxes.
E: Does the AIA have a figure for how many cars are operating in Lebanon today?
SH: To be really honest, the only way to get to this number would be to go to the traffic department and look at their data. They are getting better and better under the minister of the interior and have made great improvements. We prefer to keep track of only our own auto figures, which means each dealer provides his figures to the association and at the end of the day we calculate these figures as those of new car sales in Lebanon.
E: A study in the late 1990s placed the average age of cars circulating on Lebanese roads at about 14 years. Do you have any update or opinion on the current age of the country’s fleet of cars?
SH: I don’t think my figures would be far from that. But I won’t venture to give out figures because we don’t have the mechanism to determine what is the average age of the cars here. However, when you drive around, you can see that the age is quite high.
E: Can you comment on the mechanique fee schedule that does not advantage new or environmentally sound cars but is cheaper for the oldest cars?
SH: We worked on that issue but unfortunately we did not get what we wanted. We believe that the mechanique should stimulate people to renew the car stock in Lebanon. We are seeing every day cars on the road that nobody would accept in other countries. We would like to see these cars slowly replaced by new cars, and we are working seriously to have the government first of all cancel the registration fees and lower customs duties. Once the mechanique becomes a technical inspection in January 2004, we would like to see these cars pulled out of circulation because not only their appearance is less than exciting but also because they are a danger for people using the roads of Lebanon.
E: Without the high taxation levels, and under a favorable environment for financing of car purchases, how many new cars could the Lebanese market absorb annually?
SH: The total market today is about 12,000 units per year, distributed over 35 dealers. By contrast, in some neighboring countries, one dealer sells about 10,000 cars each year. We are not calling for elimination of customs but ask for their reduction and complete cancellation of registration fees, in order to encourage people to replace their old vehicles with new ones.
E: In a macro-economic context, how important is the contribution of automotive sector to fiscal income?
SH: Customs duties on vehicles and petrol tax and so forth make a very big contribution to the government income. But we believe that if registration fees are cancelled completely and customs duties are reduced, we will sell more vehicles. The government will benefit more from the taxes we just mentioned, and we would have cleaner air from cars that produce less pollution. We would have safer cars on the road, and more pleasant cars to look at for this country and its image as a tourism destination. On all fronts, we would be better off if we decrease the taxes.
E: How much does the automotive sector contribute to Lebanon’s GDP?
SH: Today we don’t have such a figure and I don’t want to jump and give a figure off the top of my head. We do contribute to the economy in various ways, to the banks and the insurance companies for example, where car loans and the motor insurance are important businesses.
E: How can the cost burden of car ownership be distributed more equally and fairly?
SH: If we dealers would take our profit margin up from 4% or 5% and put it at 25%, we would be selling a quarter of what we are selling today. That is not the case at all. As I said, competition is very high among the dealers and profit margins are very tight. But I am saying that with its tax burden, the government is trying to milk this cow to its limits. Asking too much from the cow and taking all eggs from the chicken is killing the chicken and killing the cow.
E: Would a change in taxation of cars not put the government under additional financial pressure?
SH: Sales of new cars should increase for three reasons: economic, safety and fiscal. The whole set of taxes today is too high. If it is lower, the fiscal power of Lebanon will be the first to enjoy a better situation. One point is that our invoices come from the biggest car manufacturers and there is no chance of them being tampered with. Importation of used vehicles happens not through a manufacturer but through a dealer or a roadside trader, who can deliver an invoice that does not reflect the value of the vehicle. If we can stop the importation of used cars, or at least limit it to vehicles of two years of age, plus have a flexible taxation, the government will be the first to benefit and the country will definitely be winning.
E: Do you have any information on the number of used car dealers in Lebanon?
SH: We have no relationship with used car importers. We have relationship with used car dealers with whom we exchange the vehicles that we receive from our customers. They take these cars from us and recondition them. These were cars that have run in Lebanon and were used in Lebanon. But we have no relation with importers of used cars. I have personally no contact with importers of used cars.
E: It seems that you view the activity of used car imports not very favorably.
SH: I said from the beginning that I wish to see the importation of used cars stop, or if that is not feasible, to limit it to the acceptance of vehicles two years of age. I believe that trashy cars, which were refused in Europe and should have gone to the junkyard, ended up here.
E: Apart from lower taxes, do you see ways in which people could reduce their cost of car ownership?
SH: Wherever you look here, you see that most cars only have one driver. When I was in the United States, I experienced car-pooling. In a company, three or four people who share the same office hours agree to travel together to and from the office, and each car owner has to use his car only four one week a month. In this country, we have invented the service taxi. It is a Lebanese philosophy. Why don’t car owners do more ride-sharing in Lebanon?
E: When you say you are looking for the best, what defines ‘the best’?
RM: A quality that I especially like to see it is the passion to make an impact on the world that goes beyond making individual gains. It begins with developing the professional side and the personal side and then reaching out to the community, in terms of giving back to society.
E: How do you spot these special qualities in applicants?
RM: They have that drive, that energy, that special electricity. When you see it, you know it.
E: Was it in any way a political or economic decision for the school to intensify your presence here?
RM: Not necessarily. We started in the Middle East about five years ago. Then all the disruptions occurred and we just pulled back. I feel the disruptions in the region will continue for quite some time, but I decided that it is time to come back, regardless, and be part of an answer to some of the problems instead of leaving things stay as they are.
E: Wharton does not have a shortage of student applications. What is the average academic level for students who gain admission?
RM: We use the GMAT score, and the average score is 714. But I think the range is much more important. It is from 640 to 780. You don’t have to have the highest score. It is everything else that really makes the candidate stand out.
E: Can people easily recoup their investment if they attend Wharton, which is an expensive program?
RM: The MBA is a long-term investment. In light of that, Wharton has created a number of programs for financing your MBA that help student to gain access immediately, through loans given to students based on their needs. We hope that students come with a contribution of some small percentage, 10% or 20 %. But if a student can’t do that, it really is the responsibility of the school to provide grants. Students might face short-term pain in terms of servicing loans. But longer term, they will be fine. The gains to society, themselves, and their company will greatly outweigh the short-term pain of those first initial years of loan repayment.
E: But in order to be able to pay back those loans, they almost automatically will have to take a job with an American or multinational corporation?
RM: There is an advantage in working in a different nation for a year or two in order to broaden the experience of the MBA. If a Lebanese student would opt for working in London or Paris to gain diverse experience in the first years, and then come back, usually the salaries and bonuses from those first years do a lot towards paying back the loan.
E: Do you have the impression that anti-American bias has grown in the target group that you approach?
RM: There is no anti-American sentiment when it comes to education.
E: How about visa?
RM: This last year, I had no problems getting visa for my students from the Middle East. They went through an additional screening process but they had no problems because they did things correctly.
E: It is then safe to assume that people coming to Wharton from the Arab world will not experience an anti-Arab bias stateside?
RM: Not at Wharton. After 9-11 and the whole student body was very protective of our Arab students.
E: How many Arab students does Wharton have at present?
RM: Probably 1 to 1.5 %; that is something I’d like to increase.
E: How high is the percentage of non-acceptance of applications?
RM: If we have about 7,000 to 8,000 applications and a class of 800, there is a lot of it. We use a structure where we view the application first and then evaluate these twice, dividing them into two groups, one of about 40 % whom we want to interview and another group whom we don’t want to interview and will deny at that point. We then weed the first group down. It works out fairly well.
E: But you would advocate Wharton as offering a better opportunity than a local school?
RM: Students, who really have aspirations to create value and provide leadership, need to get abroad. The MBA is much more than a functional skill at learning. It is an experience of other cultures, worlds. It is the intensity of the experience. But some people just want to be functional experts that don’t want to leave. There are those who want to make money and therefore are interested in taking the credentials. To them I would say, stay, don’t take that risk; don’t spend the money. It really depends on the needs.
Khalil Daoud, the new chairman and managing director of LibanPost, has set aside a small patch of land outside the company’s headquarters, next to Beirut Airport. “It’s for the employees, so they can grow cucumbers and tomatoes.” he explained. “But they don’t care.” The failed horticultural experiment illustrates how difficult it is to spawn a sense of esprit de corps among LibanPost’s 600 employees, as well as the notion that they have a stake in its success or failure. Only a year and a half ago, after the original LibanPost had folded, many thought they were going to be laid off.
In a bid to bolster consumer confidence, Daoud has started giving the country’s post offices a “rejuvenated look,” by redecorating the offices. LibanPost is now allocating $300,000 to $350,000 a year – about 2% of its roughly $16 million annual budget – to this endeavor, and has spent $300,000 on a new post office off Riad al-Solh Square, in the Beirut Central District.
In addition, the company pays Canada Post $500,000 a year for consultancy services, which include training, and has spent over $1 million this year upgrading its technical capacities. Since he took over LibanPost in February 2002, Daoud has been implementing his vision of an overhauled Lebanese postal system. No easy task, since the country’s postal service was obliterated by the civil war and it was only thanks to local and international courier companies that any post flowed at all during that time.
Daoud said he has had to coax a people grown unaccustomed to using postal services back into the fold. “The core objective was to revamp the mail culture, which was non-existent over here. You had a whole generation without any idea about what a postal administration can offer.”
To this end, LibanPost is attempting to establish itself as a conduit for government services such as passport/residency permit renewals and military service exemptions/postponements. The effort, argued Daoud, bolsters President Emile Lahoud’s anti-corruption drive because it cuts out face-to-face transactions between citizens and government employees, thus reducing the potential for “under-the-table” deals. LibanPost exacts no fees for the renewal services, which it began offering about two years ago. So far, Daoud said, between 75,000 and 80,000 people have renewed their documents through LibanPost. The decision to offer assistance with military service formalities was born, Daoud noted, of his frustration with the time wasted sorting out an exemption for his university-bound son at one of the country’s five military service centers in the Bekaa region. “We had to wake up very early in the morning and when we arrived, there were some 2,000 to 3,000 students in line. We had to wait for several hours.” Initiated at the beginning of the year, the service costs LL6,000, or $4. Every week, the number of related transactions grows by 20% to 25%. LibanPost has processed a total of about 3,000 military service-related requests. In 2004, the company expects an increase to about 25,000 to 30,000 requests.
LibanPost is trying, as well, to foster a retail environment in its post offices by offering stationary products such as greeting cards, postcards, envelopes, packages, newspapers, magazines, Lebanon-themed screensavers, floppy diskettes, books about stamps, prepaid internet cards, credit cards and fuel coupons, bus tickets etc. Post offices also offer fax and photocopy services. “We’re gradually expanding the retail services so that it becomes a one-stop shop for people who are in any case visiting the post office,” said Daoud. On a less enthusiastic note, Daoud bemoaned the paucity of banking-related transactions registered by LibanPost. “So far, we haven’t been very successful with the financial institutions. The bulk of mail from banks consists basically of statements of accounts. Most banks today are not distributing statements of accounts, although [bank clients] pay a quarterly fee for them.”
Before the civil war in 1975, Lebanon’s postal services were under the direct control of the ministry of telecommunications. LibanPost, formed in 1998, is a private company under contract to the Lebanese government to operate the country’s postal services. The ministry of telecommunications and the general-directorate of the post regulate the service, but Daoud said the two institutions do not meddle in LibanPost’s affairs or impose strategy. Revenues are shared, but Daoud said that under the terms of the 15-year agreement he could not disclose the breakdown. Daoud refused to reveal the company’s revenues, but acknowledged that the company is still losing money, and probably will continue to do so until the end of 2003. “Next year, however, we hope to start generating profits. I am 100% convinced that there are ways of making a profit without simply waiting for the government to give us business. In all postal organizations around the world, the government is a major contributor to the well-being of the postal administration – this is not the case in Lebanon,” said Daoud.
LibanPost’s shareholders changed in 2001, and an amendment to the original contract spawned the agreement under which LibanPost in its current form operates. Daoud claimed he was not sure why the previous LibanPost agreement disintegrated, but likened its failure to a “wedding that breaks up – the chemistry didn’t work.” In the belly of the company’s headquarters, video cameras and supervisors monitor employees as they handle the roughly 14 million annual transactions. Mistakes are not tolerated. “We are ruthless with errors,” acknowledged Daoud, from behind the broad desk of his white, spartanly furnished office. “Our clients are like people who go to the same restaurant every day. If one day they find a hair on their plate, that’s it, finished. If we hear of any moral irregularities proved to have been committed by one of our employees, then they are fired on the same day,” said Daoud, explaining that he LibanPost operates a “clean floor” policy. Shortcomings are exposed and discussed during daily, early-morning “debriefing” sessions. “Over the last 18 to 20 months, the quality of the service has been continuously improving,” asserted Daoud.
Nonetheless, in the mail sorting room, boxes full of undelivered letters abound, the envelopes marked in some instances with unintelligible scrawl, or an unidentifiable address – after all, Lebanon has no post code system. Thus, delivering letters in the oft labyrinthine streets of Beirut and its southern suburbs, can be a frustrating, sometimes impossible, task – especially if the envelopes sport addresses such as: “Current resident, 14, Blue Cliff Drive, Lebanon,” or “Ms. ‘X’, Lebanon.” Not surprisingly, the ‘Return to Sender’ stamp is in constant use. According to Daoud, Lebanon’s chaotic or non-existent address system is one of LibanPost’s biggest challenges. “Most of the addresses are either wrong or approximate, like ‘opposite that place,’ ‘next to the mosque,’ or ‘over the petrol station.,’” he lamented. In an effort to push for a postal code, LibanPost has already spent $2 million, but the investment has yet to bear fruit because municipalities will not allow plaques bearing postal codes to be affixed to buildings. “We have sent several reminders on the subject, and nothing has been done,” noted Daoud. An alternative, he said, would be to ensure that every street in Lebanon has a name and every building a number. But because the “ownership” of this initiative lies with the municipalities – of which there are 752 – the process is potentially lengthy. The stack of official approvals that must accompany each act of renaming merely serves to complicate the process. LibanPost’s obstacles, however, do not all arise from bureaucratic red tape. Daoud acknowledged that occasionally mail does go astray, but asserted that only in rare instances is it the fault of LibanPost. Inhospitable janitors or doormen sometimes refuse postmen access to a building, saying they will deliver the letters but do not. “The absence of letterboxes can also contribute to the loss of mail. When letters are left lying in front of doors, perched on walls, or propped up against electricity meters, they are easy prey for dishonest neighbors.”
At the press conference in which he outlined the 2004 budget, minister of finance, Fouad Siniora, began by justifying why the 2003 budget was missed by such a sizeable margin. According to figures for the first nine months of 2003, the deficit stood at around 38%, compared to almost 40% for the same period last year, thus registering a modest improvement. While revenues seem to be on target for the year, and may reach the budgeted LL6.475 billion by year-end, expenditures remain high. Current expenditures (excluding debt servicing) grew almost 8% between January and September 2003, compared to the same period last year, reaching LL3.4 billion against a full year budget of LL4.2 billion. On the other hand, debt servicing, which was expected to be capped at LL4 billion for the year, has already exceeded LL3.4 billion by September, and remains the main factor behind the government’s failure to trim the deficit further. In an effort to justify this performance, Siniora stressed that failure to implement structural reforms in the public sector was to blame for the government’s inability to trim current expenditures and meet its targets, while debt servicing targets set for 2003 were primarily dependent on the proceeds from privatization of state assets, a move yet to be implemented.
In doing so, Siniora absolved his ministry from failing to meet the budget for 2003, placing the blame primarily on the political bickering that has hampered the implementation of structural reforms and the progress of privatization. That done, Siniora moved on to sketch the main highlights of the government’s draft budget for the coming year, repeating the importance of structural reforms in the public sector, and their critical role in achieving any target set for 2004.
He said that the new budget would take into consideration the current and expected burdens on the ministry and the treasury. No new taxes would be levied, nor would there be any modifications to existing taxes, including the famed Value Added Tax, expected to remain at 10%.
On the revenue side, total proceeds were expected to remain stable at around LL6.4 billion, yielding an initial surplus in the budget of LL1.45 billion – until debt servicing comes into play.
Setting the debt-servicing burden aside, total expenditure by the government is expected to stretch by almost 8% to reach LL4.95 billion. Around 69%, or LL3.4 billion of such expenditures are allocated to salaries and wages for the workers of the public sector. With the national debt holding steady at current levels, total interest on the debt for the year 2004 is expected to reach at least LL4.3 billion, constituting 46% of total expenses, 67% of total revenues, and yielding a net deficit for the budget of LL2.85 billion, or 30.8% of spending.
As such, wages and salaries, in addition to debt servicing costs, amount to a staggering LL7.7 billion, or 84% of total expenditures. The remaining 16% of expenditures, or LL 1.9 billion, are allocated among various ministries as normal operating expenses for government entities. While such “discretionary” costs may be trimmed, it would conceivably be difficult to significantly improve efficiencies on that front with no radical structural reforms.
On the other hand, if privatization plans do materialize early in 2004, and if proceeds from such efforts are up to expectations, total debt servicing for the year may drop to LL3.9 billion. Such a drastic improvement would reduce the deficit to LL2.45 billion, or 27.7% of spending. The ability of the government to meet even the high end of the deficit for 2004 remains to be assessed, however, as it still marks a significant improvement over the numbers seen in the second half of 2003, where the deficit reached 38% of spending. In fact, as it has been clearly outlined by Siniora, prospects for additional cost-cutting outside debt servicing are bleak, while revenues are expected to remain flat. On the revenue side, options appear to be very limited, or so the government would want us to believe. Income taxes are already being levied on companies and individuals alike. Consumer taxes are being levied through a 10% Value Added Tax system being applied to almost every type of good or service. Custom duties are still applied to almost all import, including unfortunately raw materials and semi-finished goods for industrial use. From this perspective, it does seem that there is virtually no room for improvements. Any additional or higher taxes and the already high cost of living in Lebanon would squeeze consumption, investments, and subsequently economic growth.
Nevertheless, the case may not be as hopeless on that front as the government is painting it out to be. The government should be able to significantly improve its income not from increasing taxes and duties, but by simply improving tax collection. While no official records are kept on who pays what taxes, or at least no records are disclosed, the possibility of digging in that direction should be seriously considered because the current situation leaves no room for slacking off, especially with the World Bank and IMF breathing down the government’s neck. Improvements can be achieved through better tax collection on currently levied taxes, in addition to levying taxes on some job sectors to this day indemnified from paying taxes (medicine, law, etc…).
On the expenditure side, and apart from debt servicing, it was made clear by the government that the overwhelming majority of expenses (or 86%) is non-discretionary and cannot be significantly reduced. Furthermore, almost two thirds of all expenses are allocated to wages and salaries of public sector “servants”. The majority of members in the government and the parliament seem to believe that no cuts can be implemented on that front. Basic finance stipulates that reducing the debt servicing cost can be achieved by either trimming the amount of debt on the books, or negotiating lower interest rates on the existing loans. It appears that perhaps the easier solution is negotiating lower rates on existing loans, or replacing existing obligations with more suitable ones. However efforts in that direction are limited, with the benefits of Paris II beginning to dissipate as the country still fails to meet the requirement set during the summit last year. The government has failed to prove to potential lender/donor countries it ability to implement needed reforms and complete privatization.
As the current situation stands, on the other hand, reducing the overall debt level without privatization seems practically impossible. Severe drainage at the power company, a sizeable budget deficit, and increasing spending on social welfare are likely to force the government to continue borrowing over the near term. As such, the total public debt level is expected to breach the $33 billion level in the foreseeable future.
Therefore, we again realize that the fate of the country hinges on a matter debated so many times over the past five years: privatization of state assets. Three matters should be addressed with that regard:
– The importance of privatization and its impact on government finances
– The urgency of completing privatization plans
– The likelihood that privatization takes place in 2004.
The critical importance of privatization of state assets and its proceeds has been underlined so many times by various parties, including the World Bank, the IMF, international banks such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, and rating agencies such as Standards and Poor’s and Moody’s. The country’s economy is severely burdened by the level of debt, high debt servicing costs and the resulting deficits forcing the government to borrow more. Such factors have prompted a number of rating agencies to downgrade Lebanon’s sovereign rating yet again, stating the pace of reforms and privatization as the main factors behind such a move. Furthermore, the presidential elections to be held towards the end of 2004 are likely to stall any major moves on the part of the government.
Standard and Poor’s proceeded to revise Lebanon’s outlook from Positive to Stable due to fiscal consolidation delays. “The outlook revision reflects our view that the draft budget for 2004 implies a postponement in fiscal consolidation and hence delays the envisaged reduction in the government’s debt burden,” said S&P’s credit analyst Ala’a Al-Yousuf.
The only conceivable solution to reduce the level of debt is through the privatization of some state assets. The two profitable cellular operations should CONCEPTUALLY be easily sold. The power company, on the other hand, is a losing business, with accumulating debts and losses. Nevertheless, serious efforts should be undertaken to sell-off EDL, which by itself is burdening the treasury and forcing on more debts. Proceeds from privatization can range from $2 to $4 billion, and can substantially reduce the overall debt servicing cost by more than 10% in 2004 alone.
Moreover, the benefits of privatization are not limited to the use of proceeds to reduce debts, but such a move would considerably boost the government’s image on the international scene, prompting cheaper lending, more donations, and improve the overall foreign investment climate in the country.
However, as the political bickering has delayed privatization for almost 4 years, the value of the assets, to the contrary of the level of national debt, are certainly not rising. The longer the privatization is delayed, the less the proceeds of such a move will be, and the more damage the government’s already frail credibility will suffer.
The year 2004 is the presidential election year. President Emile Lahoud is eager to improve his public image, while Prime Minister Rafik Hariri is equally keen on meeting his economic targets. It remains to be seen, however, if their plans to improve their public image include a certain compromise on such critical issues as privatization, and how soon, if ever, such precarious steps are to be taken.
The stock market’s upward move this year has humbled many analysts and perplexed even the most optimistic financial experts. Take the all-tech/all-emotions Nasdaq as an example: it’s up a mind-boggling 73% from its October 2002 lows, a tempting sign to many that it’s safe to invest again. But are Wall Street’s happy days here to stay, or is the stock market’s upswing operating on borrowed time?
It is crucial when looking at the market to keep an eye on the big picture, which in this case is that stocks cracked in 2000 and have embarked on a massive bear market. Any moves up within this bear market have to be analyzed in the context of the larger force in action: the bear. In fact, for the SP500 index, the bear market is in the earlier stages of its decline. The Nasdaq, although on the rise – some Nasdaq dream makers are up two, three, even five-fold – it is still down 60% from its March 2002 numbers. This latest rally has brought little real solace for the buy and hold crowd, as they are still down. The short-term punters that have played the move up, however, have cleaned up nicely. But in the meantime, the individual investor must ask the following question: “Is it for real and do I keep my money in?” The answer to both is a resounding “no”.
The move up, from a technical perspective is not so irrational – there have been three other moves up since the crash started, and all had been mistaken for a real revival. This latest surge came with a whole media blitz on how “the US economy is recovering” and in three months, the word “recovery” replaced the word “recession”. The current mainstream view is that the recovery in the US will lead to ever-higher asset prices, but there are two important cautionary factors that should be considered. The first is that the sentiment is extremely positive. This may seem counter-intuitive, but with market participants feeling so buoyant, there is ample room for disappointment. Ever forgetful of the past, the public and the media are being lured into a false sense of security. The market never bottomed at multiples beyond seven or eight and we are currently at 28 times earnings on the SP500. The second factor is that with consumption being the catalyst of any recovery, it is hard to imagine it staying robust without improvements in job creation. Job growth, especially weak in Europe, has faded significantly in the US, with the unemployment rate increasing from 4% at the height of the mania, to near 6%. Chances are, unemployment will continue to rise given the massive overcapacity in most sectors.
The technical factors abound, but the most relevant for the individual investor, is that the bear market is not over. People should be looking at their portfolios and cutting stock exposure to a bare minimum, and while the media and large financial institutions will have you believe that “cash is trash”, this advice will likely turn out ruinous. The notion that people must invest in the stock market is outdated. From 1982 to 2001, the markets were hugging a near perfect up trend (see chart). Since then, it has gone back and forth, sometimes with inebriating speeds, but the market remains below the trend line broken three years ago. What does that entail? It simply reinforces, visually, that despite the recent large move up in stocks, and the hope driven discourse about elections, recoveries, and the “new world”, the markets are still in dangerous territory. Even the sexiest alternative investment will not dodge the coming deflation in prices across the global markets, especially in US stocks and corporate bonds. It is much simpler to adopt the optimistic scenario, as it flows strongly in the ambient media. But one must be more cautious than ever before of the dream of long-term prosperity in stocks. Having been devastated by hope on multiple occasions in the past, it is an elixir that should be passed up. Stay in cash, invest where you live, and preserve hard-earned money. Cash, far from being trash, is the ammunition for investing when no one, including CNBC, will be positive on stocks. For now, stay liquid for the stormy winter.