The urgency in bringing rapid relief to survivors of Pakistan’s devastating earthquake might not pass as a major business decision, but ultimately it is. Call it long-term investment in terror prevention, and file it under “insurance claims.”
In the aftermath of the catastrophe – close to 50,000 dead, maybe twice that figure once the numbers are finally in; 15,000 villages affected by the disaster, and, according to reports from international relief agencies and Pakistani government officials in the field; possibly as many as 3 million, possibly 4 million, people homeless. The numbers are astounding by any standard; it would be the equivalent of almost the entire population of Lebanon living in the street. The earthquake has destroyed more than 80 percent of structures in parts of northern Pakistan and strong aftershocks threaten buildings already damaged by the initial quake. Winter in the Himalayas is just weeks away and unless aid arrives fast, tens of thousands of people will starve and freeze to death. The U.N. coordinator, Undersecretary General for Emergency Relief Jan Egeland, who was touring the area around Muzaffarabad described the situation on the ground as “desperate.” “With wintry conditions arriving in the higher elevations, children are facing a potentially deadly combination of cold, malnutrition and disease,” said UNICEF Executive Director Ann Veneman in New York. “Most housing has been destroyed in the hardest hit areas, so the survival of thousands of young children is now at stake. Shelter, nutrition, and health care for children must be a priority.”
And all this is taking place in a region of the world where you need only scratch the surface to discover the deep-rooted sympathy for al-Qaida.
How is this an economic affair? Simple mathematics really. Unless relief from the West arrives in the affected areas post haste, there are excellent chances for the region to turn into a vast breeding ground for potential al-Qaida conscripts. Recruiters from radical organizations seeking to refill their ranks will not waste time in signing up a new crop of jihadi fighters from among the tens of thousands of men aged 15-45 who overnight find themselves alone, homeless, jobless, penniless and ripe for the recruiter from any of the militant politicized Islamist organization, of which there is no shortage in Pakistan, will gladly join the ranks of those organizations who are willing to give them food, shelter and an AK-47.
That’s assuming they have not already started doing so. Already, the day after the disaster, reports from the quake-affected areas made mention of mujahedin fighters arriving with blankets, food and medicine to assist survivors in one village where no other help arrived.
Little matter to the cost of the relief operation, it will turn out costing the international community far less in the long run.
Back to the math: working on the assumption that the lower of the estimates is correct, assuming that among the 2 million homeless only a small percentage — just half a percent — of males aged between 15 and 45 accept the offer from the Islamists. That is still a staggering 10,000 possible recruits.
Much closer to reality the numbers could well be in the tens of thousands, if not more. As a reminder, it took only 19 men to carry out the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
If the investment is not made today to save those left stranded on the cold, barren hills of Pakistani Kashmir, a far greater investment will have to be made to fight them later. Consider it a race between international relief organizations and Islamists groups for the hearts and minds (and bodies) of the refugees. The importance of providing for the victims cannot be stressed enough. If it means deploying NATO, U.S. and EU forces toward that end, then it should be done. Every hour wasted could mean a successful “close” for the recruiter; every recruit a potential future terrorist.
It will get far worse unless massive amounts of aid start to arrive without further delay. Many cities and villages in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and the North-West Frontier Province, the most affected areas, have been wiped out. NWFP abuts Afghanistan and is the area where Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding. He could soon be offering many more people refuge in his cave. His fighters are believed to frequently trek back and forth across the Pakistan-Afghan frontier.
The scope of the disaster requires new thinking – thinking outside the box. Once these disaffected youths have been fed and clothed, there will be the need to keep them occupied. This is where a sort of Pakistani Peace Corps should be created and financed by the international community, so that in turn, they can help rebuild the devastated areas. In the long run, it will prove to have been a relatively low price to pay for the dividends reaped.
