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Buoyed by banks

by Thomas Schellen

The relationship between the Lebanese economy and its banks is not quite as simple as the numbers suggest. Banking aggregates are improving every year. But the economy in Lebanon cannot be assumed to be sturdy just because the banking sector is jogging on and on. There are far too many risks and alarm signals on the macro level. To name a few beyond the often-cited debt to GDP ratio (now somewhere above 150 percent), seemingly perennial current account deficits (nearly 20 percent in 2016 according to World Bank Group data), and the deficit to GDP (last above 8 percent), the burdens of inequality to society keep increasing—there are weaknesses in factor productivity, poor capital stock formation, lack of competitiveness of manufacturers, an anemic middle class, and arguably not enough energy in the entrepreneurship ecosystem and knowledge economy. This only can serve to emphasize that banking can supply financial nourishment that

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