Let’s face it, in its own way the recent liberation of the South
was as momentous a time for the Lebanese as the
crumbling of the Berlin Wall was for the Germans just over
a decade ago. At last the country was reunited. There was
singing and dancing, and there were tears of joy as relatives were
reunited after years of separation and thousands returned to a
homeland they had once fled. Steady streams of people
flocked to take part in and witness the historic moment. But just
as the Germans quickly discovered, the Lebanese found out that
this was the easy part. The real struggles still lie ahead.
Once the cradle of civilization, where some of the greatest
advances were made in astronomy, philosophy and the sciences,
this part of the world is now faced with daunting challenges
to bring it into the 21st century. Change and development.
These are the issues that matter today in Lebanon.
In a special 12-page cover story, EXECUTIVE takes a look at the
changes taking place, and the changes that Lebanon must make
to develop into a modern society. From the newly liberated South
to neighboring Syria, technology, privatization and economic
recovery, there is hope and fear of what might lie ahead.
In the company of King Abdullah of Jordan and King
Mohammed of Morocco, Syria’s Bashar Assad is the latest
young leader in the region to take up the reins of power following
his father’s death. This brings expectations and uncertainty.
Uncertainty about how Lebanon’s relationship with its
neighbor may evolve. Uncertainty about when, and under what
terms**,** a peace agreement, so vital to a revival in this country,
will be signed. The young western-educated doctor also carries
with him to power expectations of modernization, as have
his counterparts in Jordan and Morocco. The possible political,
economic and social change in Syria, and throughout the
region, could have a significant impact on Lebanon.
And while the regional factor is an important one, Lebanon
must also look to its own backyard, the South. In the wake of
the Israeli withdrawal, business and real estate hawks will probably
scout out the area for opportunities. But the Lebanese
authorities need to ensure continued stability and take measures
to bring the region back into the fold. Those who gained their
livelihood from the occupation, often by crossing the border to
work, must find a new source of income in a region that
boasts little more than tobacco farming. Fully one-fourth of
households live on incomes of less than $330 a month. The
government has launched a reconstruction program for the
South, where the basics like running water, electricity, medical
care and adequate schooling are real concerns.
Seemingly a world away from such a hand-to-mouth existence,
politicians in the capital are talking up the need to enter
the technological revolution. Rapidly evolving technologies have
changed the way the world communicates, works and plays.
Despite Lebanon’s advance compared to much of the region,
this country lags behind the western world with less than
100,000 people “connected”. How quickly and to what extent
Lebanon embraces technology will define its place in the
New Economy.
Clearly the surest path, on top of a coherent government policy,
is via privatization and liberalization of the telecommunications
sector. This region as a whole has been slow off the
mark in privatizing its state-owned entities and Lebanon is being
outdone by countries like Egypt, Morocco and Jordan.
Considering the benefits to consumers, and the economy as
a whole, in terms of prices, quality and a secure supply of services,
the utilities would be better off in private hands. And none
is more important than the telecom sector. The government’s fiscal
readjustment program factored in receipts from privatization
at $4-5 billion over a five-year period. But it is expected that the
revenues could actually be double that figure. Mustering the
political will to get on with the program is vital for the economy**,**
considering the public debt is nearing $22 billion, while the
deficit has topped 50%.
With the Israeli troops gone, Lebanon may be its own worst
enemy, economically speaking. Rating agency Standard &
Poor’s recently delivered a blow to forecasts that better days
are just around the corner. Lebanon risks being downgraded
if it doesn’t get its fiscal house in order and move forward on specific
reforms, including its telecom policy.
So while Lebanon is basking in the excitement of change,
there is also anxiety that this is a make or break window of
opportunity for a country with so much potential, of which so
little has been realized.
