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Libya back on the map

by Claude Salhani

Colonel Moammar Gadhafi’s recent political aboutface over his country’s weapons of mass destruction and his willingness to relinquish them has caught much of the world by surprise. It was a rare bit of good news emanating from an otherwise tumultuous part of the world. In truth, the Libyan leader’s decision to try and alter his revolutionary image as the rebel with multiple causes, is nothing but his waking up to the stark realities of 21st century, post Cold War economic realpolitik.

In this new era of American political hegemony – with the United States as the sole remaining super power – and given Washington’s resolve in combatting “terrorism” and halting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) Libya’s move was the right one. But it was the economic crunch from sanctions and its isolation from the world community – more so than the threat of America’s military might, that changed Gadhafi’s mind and heart. Gadhafi’s socialist-based economy depends primarily on revenue from the country’s oil industry, which according to the US government, contributes to practically all export earnings and about one-quarter of its GDP. But despite lucrative revenues derived from its petrochemical industry and a relatively small population of just 5.5 million, which until recently enjoyed one of the highest per capita GDPs in Africa, the country has felt the strain of US-imposed sanctions and could no longer afford to continue being the world’s pariah.

Little if any, of the millions of dollars from oil revenues trickled down the ladder of Libyan society. Restrictions on imports and gross mismanagement of the economy have led to shortages of basic goods at times – a real problem for the population in a country that imports up to 75% of its foodstuffs. All sectors, including education and health care suffered, not to mention human rights and individual liberties.

The rise in world oil prices over the last three years has helped Libya, as it saw an increase of revenues. This has partially improved the macroeconomic balance, but overall, has had little impact on the economy. Given the results of Gadhafi’s failed politics and policies, there is little surprise that he has decided to “come out of the cold.” The Bush administration would like to take credit for Libya’s sudden change of heart that came with its recent admission to possessing weapons of mass destruction programs; its willingness to give them up and its newfound desire to re-establish ties with the West. Coming in an election year, this sort of revelation can only help Bush, who is already trailing about five points in the polls behind Senator John Kerry, the leading Democratic Party candidate.

Bush’s supporters, particularly the neoconservatives who planned, lobbied and supported the invasion of Iraq, point to the war and Saddam’s fall as a deciding factor that led to the Libyan leader’s policy change. They advocate that if the Bush administration had not routed Saddam, Gadhafi might have still kept his WMD programs. While there may even be some truth in the fact that Saddam’s demise may have speeded up Gadhafi’s decision-making, in reality negotiations between Libya and Britain had been in the works for several months.

The person who perhaps deserves the most credit in bringing about these drastic changes in Libya, is Seif al-Islam, Gadhafi’s son, and some say political heir. The leader’s second son runs the Gadhafi Foundation, a charity which tries hard to project a new and positive image of Libya. Seif al-Islam, through his foundation, has been active in attempting to obtain the release of Western hostages in the Philippines and Afghanistan. However, when the younger Gadhafi tried to negotiate the release of a group of Western hostages detained in the Philippines by the Abu Sayyaf Group in exchange for payment, the ransom only served to encourage the kidnappers into taking more hostages.

Sources familiar with the situation in Libya say that the young business-minded Gadhafi realizes that remaining a pariah state is simply bad for business. His brother Mohammed, for example, would like to obtain the Burger King fast food franchise for Libya. The Gadhafi sons realize that such deals would never occur so long as Libya remains on the US’ black list. Now aged 61, the Libyan leader is purported to be grooming Seif al-Islam, 31, to eventually take over the reins of power. The son, one of five, is said to be very different from his father. He is always impeccably dressed, usually in designer suits, and well mannered. He was educated in Switzerland and Austria, where he studied economics and engineering. In recent years he has toured many Western capitals, laboring to give Libya a better image. He is reported to have sued a London newspaper that had accused him of distributing counterfeit money in Iran.

Some observers believe that Seif al-Islam played a fundamental role in bringing about this new rapprochement with the West, and after decades of isolation, Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair is now planning a visit to Tripoli.

In an election year, ever quick to profit from Gadhafi’s concessions and congratulate itself – and no doubt to profit from potential lucrative Libyan oil deals – the Bush administration has been quick to ignore his human rights record and the abuses of his own people. Yet human rights abuses are a point Bush does not miss making when justifying the invasion of Iraq and the removal of the former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein.

“It’s truly sad to see Gadhafi and his son being patted on the back, without the slightest mention of his continued abuse of his own people,” says Ali Al-Rida, a Libyan-American. Al-Rida says the “desperation of both Bush and Blair to claim any kind of ‘victory‚’ is unmistakable, even at the cost of a total loss of any credibility that may have survived their Iraq claims.” Indeed, one should not lose track of this fact and allow gross abusers of human rights to get off the hook so easily, say Libyan Americans, who, still wary of the safety of family back home, refuse to be named. Reneging on his weapons of mass destruction program, is certainly a first step in the right direction, though it remains to be seen just how advanced those programs really were. But Gadhafi needs to do much more, exiled Libyans and human rights groups say. “The lack of any convincing legal and democratic reforms in Libya for 34 years, only a few weeks after President Bush lectured the world about the strategic importance of upholding these principles…is a travesty and a disastrous blunder, par excellence,” says Al-Rida.

Amnesty International “remains deeply concerned about the detention of hundreds of political prisoners – some of whom could be prisoners of conscience – detained without charge or trial and several cases of people who have ‘disappeared.’” Amnesty goes on to say that at a time when Libya seeks to end its isolation and develop its international diplomatic, cultural and commercial ties, “it has yet to take steps to improve its human rights record.”

Among those close to Gadhafi, and singled out by exiled Libyans and Western observers as one of the worst offenders of human rights, is Musa Kusa, the head of Libya’s intelligence service. Nicknamed the “envoy of death” by his enemies, Kusa was once among the most reviled men in Britain, accused of sending hitmen around the world to kill opponents of the Gadhafi regime. Vince Cannistraro, the former CIA head of counter-terrorism has said that Kusa has “blood on his hands all round the world.”

Given the unevenness of America’s foreign policy in the Middle East, it is by no means surprising when Al-Rida and other Arab Americans ask why Arabs and Muslims: “hate the United States and think of Americans as hypocrites?”

Gadhafi’s return to the fold of the international community is an encouraging first step. Libya should now be encouraged by Washington and London to address its other issues.

Claude Salhani is a foreign editor and political analyst at United Press International in Washington DC.

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