EXECUTIVE asked four of the top analysts on Lebanese politics their opinion on who is most
likely to be the next prime minister and how qualified each candidate is. Here are the results
Rafic Hariri
• “The only obstacle is his bad relations
with the president. If everything is left
to go as it should then it will be Hariri
as prime minister. It seems the Syrians are trying now,
through some consultations with the president, to find consensus.
If they don’t succeed, the choice will be between
Mikati and Kassar.”
Sarkis Naoum, political commentator for An-Nahar newspaper
• “Hariri has certain priorities. His first is to have more or less
the government of his choice. He wants to control the ministers,
especially the minister of finance. If he cannot get this,
he will prefer not to be the prime minister. This could be difficult;
Lahoud doesn’t want to give him a blank cheque.
There will be heavy negotiations until the appointment. Hariri
has a much better chance than Mikati. He created a solid
power base since 1992.”
Michael Young, political analyst with the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies
• “He is the person most likely to become prime minister.
However electoral alliances don’t necessarily translate into
parliamentary blocks. In principle if parliament nominates
Hariri then the president should nominate him as prime
minister. But if the president bypasses the parliamentary nomination
then parliament only has recourse when there’s a vote
of confidence in the new government. In the meantime,
alliances can shift.
If Hariri is nominated it depends on how he forms government:
as a sort of administration where he has free reign to design
policy or as a government of national unity. The latter would
be a recipe for paralysis, where the whole political system is
embodied in the government and the cabinet doesn’t have the
executive power. Only if you have executive power can you
be held accountable. Hariri is certainly the man with the
international contacts and the drive to get Lebanon out of this
mess and restore confidence in the economy.”
Nadim Shehadi, director of the Centre for Lebanese Studies at Oxford University
• “If Hariri is not forming the cabinet, he will be represented.
With any of the candidates we will be facing the same problems
that we have today – a stagnant economy, a ballooning
debt, etc. With Hariri, we will face a second problem, namely
his poor relationship with the president.”
Farid Khazen, head of AUB‘s political science department
Najib Mikati
“Mikati could be the compromise
candidate, especially if he’s favored by
Syria. And his profile fits into the new
regional mode of having the young
generation that wants reform and will
fight corruption.
He’s certainly qualified for the job. He’s
politically clean and popular, he’s not
seen as tainted by political corruption in the country.
It would be the image of a clean start, which is positive.
I think he has a good chance of being appointed and a
good chance of being successful given that image. Lebanon
is ready for a new image, not connected to the old system.” N. Shehadi
Mikati is the next choice. He has a good chance if Hariri
and Lahoud’s bottom lines are far apart. If Lahoud and
Hariri are in the mood to compromise, Mikati’s chances will
go down.
Mikati’s ability is not known. He’s completely unknown.
He’s done well to forward his own name, but nothing indicates
that he’ll be a good prime minister. He’s been a good businessman,
but you can’t judge him on having been the minister
of public works. He doesn’t have a solid power base.”
M. Young
• “Mikati is a newcomer, but he has done well as a minister.
At the same time, he has a close relationship with Syria.”
F. Khazen
Adnan Kassar
• “He’s not a politician. He’s a
banker. What kind of government
will he lead?”
M. Young
“I’m not so sure about his
nomination. The positive angle
is that it would represent a larger
role for the private sector. This is
a good position to start from for strengthening the private sector and reforming the public
sector to fit the demands of the private sector. And he’s also
not a politician in the classical sense, and therefore not subject
to political pressures.”
N. Shehadi
• “Kassar is a businessman. He is seen as neutral. But without
political support, he can do nothing.”
F. Khazen
Candidate X
• “Surprises are expected in this country, but I don’t think that
this is the time for surprises.”
S. Naoum
• “I don’t see anybody coming out of the woodwork.”
• “I cannot see who. Can’t say who.”
M. Young
