When the Berlin Wall fell, taking the old Soviet bloc with it, the same should have happened to its client states across the Middle East. But as per usual, we arrived to the party a decade or two late.
Today, the Arab uprisings are radically reshaping the geo-political contours of the region. These seismic events, in particular the chaos in Syria, leave us with an unnerving sense of déjà vu.
Once again, the old titan foes of the Cold War era are pitted against each other as they vie to advance their vested interests in the Middle East.
Russia has already had its business in Libya trounced and it has deep military and commercial ties with the Syrian regime. China is energy dependent on regional allies and is fretful of an attack on the status quo. Thus, it is little wonder that they are closing ranks around the Syrian regime and allowing it a free hand to butcher any opposition to its rule. Conversely, the US, Europe, and their regional allies can spy in the so-called Arab Spring an opportunity to break the back of Iranian influence in the Levant. And so the stage is set for a new chapter in an old Cold War.
It may be true that no one really wants to turn the cold faucet off and the hot one on. But, as in any cold war symphony, covert operations and propaganda are the harmony that plays in the background. History has bitterly taught us that it only takes a so-called intelligence operative in Washington, Moscow, Tehran or Tel Aviv to make a misplaced calculation and spark an all-out conflict. And once the wheels of war are in motion there is no telling how far they will travel; look no further than Iraq or Afghanistan.
We have been here before. The Syrians of all governments will remember that in June 1967 Russian jets flew home, leaving their “ally” to get smashed by the Israelis. Their loyalty, like that of any other great power, is fickle, and if self-interest dictates they will drop Assad and his clan like a backfiring rifle.
This is nothing new. Allowing ourselves to be manipulated and only having the gall to protest afterwards has long been the mantra — that is until Mr Bouazizi ignited his body and sparked an inferno of revolt. Now as the old cannons are creeping back to bridle us again, it is time to realize that the same rules need not apply. If the recent uprisings have has taught us anything, we should not find ourselves on the wrong side of history again. Instead, we should make it.
