Summer is the period when the Middle East harvests the fruits of its hard labors. It is the time when families travel, head to the mountains, and hit the beach. It is a time when they might splash out on those luxury goods with which we reward ourselves: the watches, the cars, the clothes, even the holiday.
And yet even amid the conspicuous consumption of the oil rich statelets, the realities of life in the Middle East do not lie far beneath the surface of the polo clubs, the malls, the hotels, the racetracks and the beach resorts. On June 16, the MI6 branch of British intelligence picked up a coded warning of an imminent terror attack on Dubai. Yes Dubai, the third most popular holiday resort among British holidaymakers and currently coveted as the ideal location for emigration among westerners eager to escape the taxes, gloominess, mediocrity and urban crime of their own nations.
And yet on the cover — and inside — the May 26 issue of Time, the Middle East was portrayed in two distinct colors: the black of a Lebanon newly plunged into civil conflict and the white of a GCC — epitomized by Dubai’s iconic Burj al Arab — as the affluent counterpoint to a Levant in turmoil with Beirut as the new epicenter.
But what may have been a marketable cover for Time ignores the reality. It is a reality that functions in shades rather than colour. Lebanon may be fragile: there is no government yet and the security situation as witnessed in the more remote areas of the country is uncertain. And yet in Beirut, full of post-Doha euphoria and a new president, the capital gears itself up for what it hopes will be a bumper summer.
In another corner of the spectrum, the GCC appears to go from strength to strength. Oil price margins fuel private equity funds, steel and glass rise out of the sand and the Gulf societies bask in unprecedented attention from western nations anxious to plant corporate, cultural and educational roots in countries they see as both allies and part of a strategic gateway to the eastern markets of the future. And yet we had that irritating warning from MI6.
What protects the whole Middle East is not only a commitment to economic prosperity but one that is underpinned with an equal commitment to security. In a region in which there are many players — let us not forget that the team sheet also includes the US, Israel, Syria and Iran — with many agendas, the winds of change can shift.
We must learn to trim our sails accordingly.
