Subsidy showdown

by Gareth Smith April 1, 2010

written by Gareth Smith April 1, 2010

Iranian strategists have long wondered about an Islamic version of the Chinese model, which has achieved a 7 to 8 percent annual growth rate over 20 years, through easing state economic control under the Communist party’s political monopoly. The crackdown on the reformist opposition since last year’s disputed presidential election — in which Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a 63 percent landslide — will increase the attraction of China’s example. Iran may now be better placed for serious economic reform, with the aim of reaching the 8 percent growth envisaged by Tehran’s 2010-15 economic plan, rather than the paltry 2.2 percent forecast for 2010 by the World Bank. Oil revenue in Iran has long pitted short-term consumption against the investment needed to finance growth. Hence, the problem with elections is that Iranians believe their country is much richer than it is and will vote for those who offer them their cut. A

Gareth Smith

Gareth Smith was a distinguished journalist who reported from the Middle East for over two decades. He served as the Financial Times correspondent in Tehran, where he was the chief Iran correspondent from 2003, following his earlier role as Lebanon correspondent. Throughout his career, Smith covered Middle Eastern affairs for leading media outlets, including The Financial Times, The Guardian, and the BBC. He also contributed as an editor to Executive magazine. His work as a freelance journalist in the 1990s, focusing on the politics of Iran and Iraq, paved the way for his appointment at the FT. In 2009, he relocated to the west coast of Ireland, where he balanced freelance journalism with his passion for nature and the land.

Subsidy showdown

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