The crude Iranian crux

Would a naval blockade by the United States, France and Britain on the Islamic Republic of Iran succeed in forcing the mullahs in Tehran to abandon their nuclear dream and turn the population against the ruling theocracy, and maybe with a little bit of luck and a discreet nudge from the West, help bring about regime change in the country? That is what the Bush administration is betting on. It would be Bush’s final hurrah before leaving the White House in about five months. Five months during which the oil markets — and Iran — will remain jittery. Or instead, would an intervention by the Western powers have the opposite effect by uniting the population against the “foreign invaders,” giving the mullahs and their maverick President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad unexpected support they might otherwise never dream to win? Indeed, as one observer pointed out, sanctions could have a positive effect with