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The Buzz

Business briefing: 17 Oct 2013

by Executive Staff October 17, 2013
written by Executive Staff

Economics and Policy

Iraq is set to boost its oil export capacity significantly by the end of the first quarter next year, stepping up competition with top exporter Saudi Arabia to grab a bigger share of the growing Asian market.

More from Reuters

 

Israel's economy is on track to grow at a 3.4 percent rate for the second straight year in 2013.

More from Reuters

 

Abu Dhabi-based Sky News Arabia said on Thursday it had lost contact with three crew members on assignment in northern Syria, considered the world's most dangerous place for journalists.

More from Reuters

 

 

Companies and Business

The Al Habtoor Group, one of the region’s largest diversified family conglomerates, could announce an IPO as early as 2016.

More from Gulf Business

 

A public inquiry into controversial Qatar-backed plans to redevelop the Shell Centre on the South Bank in London will take place next month.

More from Arabian Business

October 17, 2013 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLebanese oil and gas

‘We are being open and transparent’

by Joe Dyke October 17, 2013
written by Joe Dyke

Gebran Bassil became Lebanon’s minister of energy and water in 2011. Since then, the country has made huge strides toward extracting its offshore oil and gas, but last month those bids suffered their first delays since international oil companies became involved. Executive sat down with him to discuss how he plans to get the bids moving again.

With regard to the delay in the oil and gas bids, are you seeing politicians wanting it to happen?

Some people want it to happen, others are simply apathetic. Some others are not helping, others are obstructing.

We need to have a council of ministers, which is the responsibility of the president and of the prime minister. It can happen in two minutes by convening the council of ministers  — the decrees are there, they have been ready for a few months, we have the approval of the Shura [Council]. It is a two-minute meeting, we say ‘ok’ and we move on.

How big is the risk of oil companies losing interest?

To be frank we have lost so many years, it is not a matter of a week or a month, two weeks or two months. What matters to us is our credibility, that we are always meeting our schedule — showing that we are serious, professional, transparent. The good opinion that we have from abroad is something we should preserve.

But for example on July 1, these companies had prepared their top seismic experts…

They will not lose interest. Some circumstances will appear where one company or another could have other interests, other investments, other obligations ­— this can happen. Or maybe there will come a time when other companies may have more interest in Lebanon. [But] what will matter at the end of the day to these companies is if the resource exists — and it exists. And secondly, how appealing it is to them, the conditions, the cost and the facility to export, to use. I believe that Lebanon is in a position where we will always attract international companies. I am not afraid about this.

 

Related articles: Serious concerns over transparency in oil and gas process

Educating the oil and gas generation

How political bickering is endangering Lebanon’s oil future

 

Are you concerned that any delays in Lebanon are undermining its regional competiveness?

If [the delay] is long enough, yes. If, let’s say, we stay for a few more years doing nothing, [then] yes. This is the aim of Israel: to delay us. So the big question for our politicians is: Do they want to help Israel by giving Israel more time? But even with the [recent memorandum of understanding between Cyprus, Greece and Israel] we are in a better position.

How so?

We are in a geopolitical position that is much better than Israel and we have reasons to believe our resources will be more attractive. You can tell this from the companies that participated in Israel and the companies that participated in Lebanon. Why in Israel did they only have Noble Energy? Where are the big companies that we were able to attract?

Could a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Cyprus owned by the Cypriots be used by both Israel and Lebanon?

No, because Israel is part of it. We don’t need that LNG plant, I am telling you we can afford a better investment plan for the companies where we don’t need it [the plant].

So what is your preferred option for exporting gas?

We are already connected to the regional pipelines. We will have other connections. No matter what Israel and Greece and Cyprus do, we will be in a better position. [Assuming] we progress, of course.

Have negotiations with the Cypriots over an LNG plant stalled or ceased?

We have the problem [with Cyprus] of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which is a priority to be solved. And under it we have to negotiate and we have already started to exchange drafts about unitization and partnership regarding any extraction of oil resources. That could go on but the priority is for the EEZ.

Are negotiations over the EEZ [dispute with Israel] ongoing?

Yes.

Are you hopeful of a breakthrough?

More or less. We are not in the same position [as a year ago] where we were asked [by the United States and Israel] to let go of a few square kilometers of our EEZ. We are in a position where the Americans and the United Nations and the Cypriots have a better understanding of our demands, which are rightful, and of our perspective that [the dispute] is not only about a line but what lies beneath the line i.e. the resources.

You are hinting that they are getting closer to accepting the Lebanese line?

They are closer to dealing with a comprehensive solution and they are already dealing with it. But regardless of what happens on this front it will not stop our operations nor our process for exploration.

You recently said Israel could steal Lebanese gas using horizontal drilling. Can you give us a figure for the gas you estimate could be stolen? Are we talking about 1 percent, 5 percent, 10 percent?

It is not important what is the percentage. Even if it is 0.001 percent, it is our right. We will not allow Israel to touch it…with Israel it is a matter of principle not quantity.

There are currently negotiations over the signing of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). Are you in favor of it?

Yes.

What are the potential problems stopping the signing of the EITI?

I am not aware of any problems. Any global initiative which abides by UN regulations and laws and gives us the good image that we deserve regarding what we are doing in this sector, we can be part of.

You have previously promised to make oil contracts public. Do you stand by that guarantee?

Of course they are public. We will be completely transparent.Until now everything we’ve done has been published and then when we open the tenders; this will be public.

But, for example, the Strategic Environmental Assessment was meant to be published on the first of May and has still not been made public?

I am not aware of this, and I don’t want to suppose of every study we are making it [public]. I am not at all aware that we were supposed to publish on a certain date.

It was a promise made by the Petroleum Administration…

No, no, no. I am not aware of it at all. Nothing that should have been published was not published. There is no reason, we don’t have anything that is negative in any sense — whether environmental, economical, technical — not at all.

You would be in favor of publishing it?

You are asking me something that [I am not aware of]. I know that we did it ahead of time and it was positive when we finished it. It was a long time ago.

With regard to the more than $33 million raised from the sales of the seismic surveys so far, there seems to be some ambiguity as to whether it is under the control of the Petroleum Administration, the Ministry of Energy or the Ministry of Finance. Can you give me an understanding of where that money has gone so far?

You know this is very small compared to what we will be gaining, so I don’t know why you are…there is no ambiguity at all. This money is put in an account on which everybody agreed, and the minister of finance has approved. Without their approval we could not have opened an account.

My understanding is that the Petroleum Administration thought the money would be available for them to spend on staff?

I don’t know where you are getting this from. You are asking questions I am not really aware of, details that are not really important.

October 17, 2013 0 comments
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Real Estate

Making the most of a bad market

by Karim Makarem October 17, 2013
written by Karim Makarem

Investing in a tight market is never easy. Choosing the correct product, paying the correct price, renting at the correct value, building the correct typology: these are much more crucial to achieve in a stagnating market than they are in a booming market. A slow market does not forgive mistakes of judgment.

Sitting on the supply side of the equation is the trickiest position in any market downturn. This applies ­— in different degrees — to developers, landowners, and landlords.

In such an unforgiving market, developers have the difficult task of building exactly what the market wants at a price buyers are willing to pay. Today, developers must juggle the choice of location, the product mix across sectors (residential, office, and retail), size, layout, construction quality, amenities and, of course, asking price. Any misjudgment on any of these parameters may make the difference between the success and the failure of a project.

For residential developments safe investments include small, mid-market residential units that still manage to offer three bedrooms in a classic residential neighborhood at budgets not exceeding $500,000. It is important to maximize the usage of space and offer as many in-built storage areas as possible.

Large and luxurious apartments have not been able to find buyers for the past several years. On the other hand, niche products that are in high demand can sell at 20-30 percent higher than the standard neighboring products. For example, a developer offering one-to two-bedroom studios with double height living areas and excellent finishing and fixtures in the area of Sursock can achieve very high sales ratios at a starting price of $6,000 per square meter (on the first floor) while neighboring projects average $5,000 per sqm on the first floor.

Beirut has never counted so many office developments as it does today. While there is demand for modern offices with an open floor layout, full amenities, services and parking spaces, sub-par office products are not attracting takers.

Developers also tend to include retail units on the ground floor of their projects to try to boost the sales returns. However, not all locations are adapted for retail development. Retail units should be limited to projects with unobstructed frontage on a main street that attracts traffic. Retail spaces should also answer demand in terms of sizes required and layout (façade vs. depth). While the majority of developers distribute retail over ground floor, mezzanine, and basement, retailers now want all the retail space to be located on ground floor level only. Retail units that do not address demand requirements remain vacant for years and can be harmful to the image of the project. In the long run, they could negatively affect the price of the units on the upper floors.

Ultimately, the price of new stock depends largely on the price of the land. Land accounts for roughly 30-50 percent of the overall construction cost, depending on the location, the quality of construction, and the profit margin the developer retains. In many cases, landowners refuse to drop their prices, putting excessive strain on final asking prices.

The problem is not limited to landowners. Property owners need to be flexible on asking prices to dispose of their assets more quickly. Landlords must reconcile asking prices with real property values given the post-boom-years downturn.

These high prices exacerbate stagnation. Landlords must understand that they can no longer retain pre slow-down prices. To successfully place one’s property on the market under the current tight conditions one must lower house prices to their market values. This applies to apartments, offices, and retail units across Beirut.

On the other side of the equation, buyers and tenants only stand to profit from the current situation. While landlords are slow in aligning their prices with values that would be acceptable to end users or investors, they are more disposed to negotiate now than ever.

As prices are not set to start increasing in the near future, buyers and tenants should have stronger negotiation power. Time is on their side, as is the increased pressure on landlords who are serious about selling or renting their property to drop their prices.

So how to speed up a slow market? If you’re selling, don’t camp on your price. Be reasonable and listen to what demand wants. If you’re buying, don’t be afraid to negotiate — hard!
 

Karim Makarem is director of Ramco Real Estate Advisers

October 17, 2013 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLebanese oil and gas

A looming shadow

by Joe Dyke October 15, 2013
written by Joe Dyke

Lebanese politicians are the least trustworthy in the world, or so its people think — in last month’s World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report the country scored 148th out of 148 in the ‘public trust in politicians’ category. The oil and gas industry is among the world’s most secretive, with Middle Eastern countries among the least forthcoming with their information, according to the pro-transparency group Revenue Watch.

Put these facts together and it is perhaps no surprise that many Lebanese are confident that any gains the country makes from offshore hydrocarbons will end up not in the new schools and transport networks the country so badly needs, but in the back pockets of the political classes. Assuaging these fears may be difficult, but if Lebanon’s politicians and policymakers are serious about doing so then being open and transparent in the process is the easiest route.

While political meddling has temporarily delayed the march toward extracting offshore resources, so far Lebanon’s Petroleum Administration (PA) has shown an admirable commitment to transparency. All of the representatives on the six-member body — charged with negotiating Lebanon’s agreements with international oil companies — come with international hydrocarbons backgrounds and, transparency groups say, have begun their operations in an open manner. So far they have released on schedule the names of the companies that have applied to bid on Lebanon’s offshore resources, those that successfully pre-qualified and the terms of those qualifications.

Diana Kaissy, MENA coordinator for Publish What You Pay (PWYP) — an organization that campaigns for transparency in the extractive industries, sums up the PA’s record as “so far, so good.” “They have been leading a transparent process as far as the licensing agreements are concerned. So far everything is out in the open.”

A personal approach

But while the PA may have been striving for transparency, there are questions being asked about the process by which Lebanon’s negotiations are being run by caretaker Energy and Water Minister Gebran Bassil. Best practice in oil and gas negotiations is to remove politicians from the fray, with supposedly independent technocrats negotiating with the international oil companies to avoid politicizing the issue. The PA is meant to be that body.

Read the full interview with the minister

A senior source with knowledge of the negotiations told Executive that Bassil has controversially been contacting oil and gas companies, seeking to meet them personally. This is highly unusual and potentially suggests Bassil’s role in the process needs evaluation. “I have never seen this anywhere in the world, not even in deeply corrupt countries like Nigeria and Algeria,” the source said. Several of the largest companies in the bidding round have expressed their discontent at Bassil’s conduct, the source added. “The companies are saying that it is not the way it should be done.”

Lebanon’s 2010 Offshore Petroleum Law strongly suggests that until the bids have been submitted, the minister should not be negotiating with the companies. Article 17 states that: “after the closing date for submission of an application for Petroleum Rights, the Petroleum Administration shall proceed with an evaluation and propose a short list of applicants to the Minister.” It is only after this stage that the “Minister, assisted by the Petroleum Administration, shall negotiate with short-listed qualified applicants.”

Sami Atallah, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, which has been working closely on oil and gas, said it is important that politics are kept out of the process. “Ideally the negotiations should be run by technical experts with enough skills and financial resources to get the best deal. Politicians should be kept out of it.”

Johnny West, founder of the pro-transparency organization OpenOil, explained that best practice in the hydrocarbons sector demands that it is clear who is responsible for negotiation. “Informal contacts of any kind are going to greatly decrease transparency,” he said. “Best practice requires a clear understanding of who is responsible for negotiating, with as wide a consultation as possible.”

Related article: How political bickering is endangering Lebanon’s gas future

Another major concern for transparency is over the money raised from the sale of seismic surveys. In March Bassil announced that the government had raised $34 million from selling information about their potential reserves, and that number has risen significantly since. Senior figures had been under the impression the funds would be under the control of the PA in order to develop Lebanon’s hydrocarbons infrastructure, including investing in education programs for training young Lebanese. As yet the PA has not received anything.

Quizzed on this issue, Bassil was non-specific. “You know this [amount] is very small compared to what we will be gaining, so I don’t know why you are … there is no ambiguity at all. This money is put in an account on which everybody agreed, and the minister of finance has approved. Without their approval we could not have opened an account,” he said. Asked to specify why there was ambiguity, Bassil said: “You are asking questions I am not really aware of, about details that are not really important.”

This seeming breakdown between Bassil and the PA is also manifest in a dispute over staff — with the body struggling to reach agreements on employments. The body, like many in Lebanon, must legally be made up of the same number of Christians and Muslims, with the six men coming from different political backgrounds. Bassil has allegedly been applying pressure on the PA to appoint certain candidates, as have other politicians. The source said “all the members have pressure on them, but they are doing their best to remain independent.”

One way to reduce the perception of pressure behind the scenes would be to introduce more formal channels of reporting. Currently the Petroleum Administration reports primarily to the energy minister, but has had little oversight from parliamentarians more generally. To formalize a new structure the PA is seeking to establish a system whereby it will report to both the minister, the government in general, the prime minister and the president. It is understood that this body could be established by the end of the year.

This kind of oversight will be necessary if and when Lebanon gets to the extraction stage and begins to make revenues. Under Lebanon’s 2010 Offshore Petroleum Law any revenues from hydrocarbons must first be put in a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) before being spent. The Santiago Principles, an IMF-backed set of 24 guidelines for best practice in managing SWFs, declares as its fourth principle that “there should be clear and publicly disclosed policies, rules, procedures, or arrangements in relation to the SWF’s general approach to funding, withdrawal, and spending operations.”

The 2010 law is vague on how Lebanon’s fund will be managed, declaring instead that a specific law will be established in due course to regulate it. It is essential that the process of drafting this law is transparent and includes input from all relevant actors, including civil society.

Environmental concerns

One further blotch on the government’s record is the failure to release the strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This document, legally required by the 2010 law, is meant to guide the government and the PA on the potential environmental impacts of any extraction, ranging from air pollution to more catastrophic scenarios such as spillages.

The minister has declared numerous times that the document will be made public, without putting a specific deadline on it. In March government officials declared that the SEA would be released on May 1. That day came and went, and the document is still not in the public domain. As such, the Lebanese public and civil society have little knowledge of the potential environmental damage that extracting hydrocarbons could have.

Bassil himself has proven rather unwilling to discuss the SEA. When asked by Executive why it had not been published on schedule, Bassil said: “I am not aware of this … I am not at all aware that we were supposed to publish on a certain date.” He did insist, however, that the environmental impact would be relatively limited. “I think people are trying to put some ambiguity about something that is really irrelevant.”

Few environmental experts would agree with this assessment. Kris van Orsdel was a senior policy analyst for American environmental group Ocean Conservancy in the period immediately after the devastating 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill. He is now a freelance consultant and has been paying keen attention to the eastern Mediterranean, with his environmental fears ranging from pollution to a catastrophic oil spill. Van Orsdel stressed that it is standard industry practice to publish the SEA and that the failure to do so was worrying.

“The currents and species that move through the eastern Mediterranean or live there move through the drilling area.  A robust and sound environmental assessment would look at not only what is at the drilling location but what is the impact to the entire ecosystem, on the water and coast,” he said. “These findings should not only be brought to the regulators and government, but be broadly shared and discussed with communities that could be impacted. The public should have an opportunity to decide if the assessment is complete.”

He cautions that a failure to develop proper environmental standards could lead to disaster. “Having lived in the Gulf of Mexico and worked through the Deep Water Horizon debacle, the largest problem that I fear for the region is a catastrophic event like that occurring,” he said. “Whether that event occurs by accident or is intentional, oil and gas activity comes with managing risk.”

While a spill is avoidable, the impact on Lebanon’s coastline is less so. With it looking less likely that Lebanon will share a liquefied natural gas plant with Cyprus, the country will require facilities for hydrocarbons processing, storage and delivery.

Ricardo Khoury, senior environmental engineer and managing partner at energy consultants ELARD, estimates that an area of 100,000 square meters may be needed for supporting off-shore development in Lebanon. The choice of location is, he says, crucial. “It will have a major impact on the country; it is going to change traffic schemes, labor trends [and] have important implications on waste management,” he said.

While it may be that the government has good advice on this issue, the fact that the SEA has not been published means it is impossible to know if environmental factors are being considered. PWYP’s Kaissy says that in terms of transparency, the failure to publish openly is worrying. “This is something to push for … It shouldn’t be a precedent for other things that will not eventually be published. Let’s get all our facts straight, get them out in the open, and start questioning why it hasn’t been published,” she said.

Voluntarily transparent?

The Lebanese are far from alone in wanting to know where their hydrocarbon revenues go, with a global trend towards transparency in the extractive industries. In April the European Union backed a law demanding that all payments over 100,000 euros ($130,000) made by oil companies to governments must be publicly declared. This follows the 2010 Dodd-Frank law, which issued a similar ruling for American firms (though it is currently being challenged in United States’ courts). Of the 12 firms that have bid to become operators in Lebanon, eight of them come under one law or the other, while a ninth ­— Norway’s Statoil — is also bound by transparency legislation. If Lebanon wants to signal its intent to meet the highest standards of transparency, one method would be to sign up to international treaties — the most prominent currently being the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). The EITI, launched in 2002 by civil society organizations but soon given the backing of the then-British Prime Minister Tony Blair, is a list of seven basic requirements for countries wishing to be declared compliant. Requirements include the conducting of independent audits, the publication by governments of revenues received, and the engagement of civil society througout the process. As such, there would be less space for ambiguity over the country’s spending of funds.

“There are other transparency initiatives that exist but what is unique about the EITI is that it has gained a lot of international support,” PWYP’s Kaissy said, including from the G8 countries. To be declared EITI-compliant countries must apply and then fulfill the desired criteria.

The Petroleum Administration is currently reviewing entry to the EITI, while Bassil indicated to Executive that he was in favor of joining. Asked if there were any potential complications that could prevent the signing of the EITI, he said: “I am not aware of any. Any global initiative which Lebanon can be part of, which abides by the UN regulations and laws and gives us the good image that we deserve regarding what we are doing in this sector, we can be part of it.” This would, at least, assuage some of the doubts.

Note: On November 25th 2013, the Ministry of Energy and Water contacted Executive to dispute this article. While Executive defends the contents above, we have agreed to publish the ministry’s response in full below as we believe in the principle of the right to reply.

 

From the Ministry of Energy and Water

The Article contains false allegations and accusations with no evidence and is based on information from unidentified sources. Such practice questions the author and the magazine’s credibility and integrity; and compels us to clarify the points below:

Point 1- Lack of Transparency and Monopolization

The interest of the 46 pre-qualified IOCs that applied to the 1st licensing round in investing in Lebanon assures the trust they perceive in the management of the licensing round by both the Ministry and the Petroleum Administration (PA).

In addition, International Organizations and Embassies commended the transparency of the licensing round. During their visit to MEW on March 12, 2013, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Diplomacy Amos Hochstein and Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Lawrence Silverman “praised the Minister of Energy for his efforts and hailed the ministry’s levels of transparency and professionalism in meeting the highest international standards.”

The Ministry and the PA are engaging with prominent international organizations including the Norwegian Oil for Development Fund, the World Bank, and UNDP, to put in-place an efficient and transparent management system while abiding by the best international practices.

Once the bids received, the Minister assisted by the PA, would negotiate with the short listed applicants and report the results to the Council of Ministers where the decision of the award is taken. Hence the Minister cannot monopolize control to the national process.

Point 2- Minister Bassil has controversially been contacting oil companies.

The article confuses between contacts which is part of MEW’s role in promoting attractiveness for investors and negotiations that would take place between the companies and the Lebanese side represented by MEW assisted by the PA as stated in article 18 of the law 132.

The Minister, being the competent authority for managing the petroleum sector, is executing his duties by providing assurances to the companies in relation to political delays. The Minister did not “controversially” contact any company. Any meeting held is based upon the request of the IOCs in accordance with the official channels.

Point 3- PA is seeking to establish a system …

The proposed new governance attributed to the PA in the article is not sought by the PA nor mentioned by any of the three layers of governance (the PA, the Minister of Energy and Water and the Council of Ministers) as per the law 132 ratified by the Lebanese parliament on August 24, 2010. Any change to the established governance structure, including reporting of the PA is not needed nor recommended and it requires an amendment to law 132 by the Lebanese parliament.

Point 4- Ambiguity regarding the financial returns

With regards to the budget of the Petroleum Administration (PA), paragraph 20.4 of Article 20 of Decree 7968 (The Petroleum Administration) stipulates that the Minister of Energy and Water needs to include the annual budget allocated to the PA, within the planned budget of the Ministry of Energy and Water submitted to the Ministry of Finance. In addition, Article 22 of the same Decree stipulates that the PA budget funds shall be deposited in an account at the Central Bank of Lebanon in the name of the treasury, and prohibits the PA from opening bank accounts in private banks or even opening a special account in the Central Bank of Lebanon.

Accordingly, the provisions of Decree 7968 do not entitle the PA to receive funds from any source.

 

Point 5- Breakdown between Bassil and the PA is also manifest in a dispute over staff

It should be noted that the PA is still in the first phase of the recruitment plan, almost a year after operating with no staff members until recently where a very limited and basic number of employees were hired .A proper and necessary structure is being created to manage the PA. The recruitment is based on qualifications and expertise and will meet the highest standards.

October 15, 2013 4 comments
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The Buzz

Business briefing: 15 Oct 2013

by Executive Staff October 15, 2013
written by Executive Staff

Economics and Policy

US Secretary of State John Kerry called on Monday for a peace conference on Syria "very soon" but said peace would not be possible without a transition government to replace President Bashar al-Assad.

More from Reuters

 

The United Arab Emirates, OPEC’s fourth-largest crude producer, is investing in nuclear power, renewable energy and liquefied natural gas terminals to reduce its reliance on oil, according to its energy minister.

More from Bloomberg

 

Lebanon’s efforts to tap its offshore gas and oil reserves received another setback over the weekend as the two main political groups that make up the caretaker Cabinet quarreled openly over the mechanism for gas tenders.

More from The Daily Star

 

Companies and Business

South Korea’s central bank has signed a bilateral, three-year currency swap deal with the United Arab Emirates worth up to $5.4 billion in a bid to strengthen trade and financial ties between the two countries.

More from Reuters

 

First National Bank SAL posted 2013 first-half net profits of $13.8 million, up from $8.9 million in the same period of 2012. 

More from The Daily Star

 

Figures released by the Lebanese Kafalat Corporation indicate that loans extended to small and medium-sized companies under its guarantee totaled LL131.1 billion or $87 million in the first nine months of 2013, down by 20.1 percent from the same period of last year

More from The Daily Star

 
 
October 15, 2013 0 comments
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Comment

Back in the eye of the storm

by Riad Al-Khouri October 14, 2013
written by Riad Al-Khouri

 

The quiet and largely peaceful Kurdish region of Iraq was last month thrust back into the spotlight by two events, firstly the somewhat contentious election results and secondly a rare Al-Qaeda attack. Coupled with an influx of refugees from Syria and continued acrimony with Baghdad, such events have once again highlighted Kurdish vulnerability amid the geostrategic games currently being played out in the Middle East.

The Kurdistan region’s parliamentary poll on the 21st saw a drop in support for the junior member of the ruling coalition, which led to cries of foul play and some rowdy protests.

The election resulted in an advance by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) the leading political grouping in Iraq's Kurdish region, while its coalition partner the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) fell behind, overtaken by Gorran (Kurdish for “change”), a relatively new opposition movement. The KDP, led by the President of the Kurdish region Massoud Barzani, secured 38 seats in the 111-seat regional parliament, up from the 30 it won back in 2009. Gorran won 24 seats done one from 25) and the PUK, which ran in coalition in with the KDP in the last election but campaigned solo this time, won only 18 seats, down from 29, with the rest going to Islamists and smaller parties, as well as minorities that have a quota of 11 members of parliament

Prior to this election, the KDP ruled in partnership with the PUK but the latter has been overtaken by Gorran as the second-largest party. Including some PUK defectors in its ranks, Gorran has benefited from anger at alleged corruption. President Barzani may now work with not only the PUK, but other partners, including possibly Gorran, to form a majority.

For its part, Gorran, which is seen to be closer to Iran, appears to be seeking a coalition with the KDP. Meanwhile, Turkey, the Kurdish region's other big neighbor, was also pleased by the election result. This was largely as the elections are seen as an assurance of stability, but also because of the KDP’s success, which means that its leader Barzani will retain his dominance.

Barzani has initiated and supported moves to peacefully resolve the Kurdish problem in Turkey and the two sides are also edging towards common ground for a solution to the crisis in Syria. In addition, he backs Turkish investments in the Kurdistan region, and has been the impetus behind Kurdistan oil exports to and through Turkey.

So, though calming signals are coming from Kurdistan's two powerful neighbors to the north and the east, dangers from other directions are beginning to press closer. The bombing attacks in Erbil last month were allegedly claimed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, the same Al-Qaeda affiliated group that has recently been running amok in Baghdad and elsewhere in central Iraq, targeting anything that appears to be close to Iran. Also active in Syria, these Islamists, among others, are fighting not only the Damascus government, but Kurdish groups in the country's north-east. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), wary of being sucked into the Syrian conflict, has tried to stay above the fray, while at the same time granting asylum to 200,000-plus mostly Kurdish refugees from Syria. However, Syria's government would welcome help in fighting rebels, and Iraqi Kurds if they aren't careful could be sucked into defending their brethren in Syria.

Yet the KRG's greatest challenge remains disputes with the government in Baghdad over territory, natural resources, and power sharing. These are not expected to be solved soon no matter what new government is formed. However, the September poll for the Kurdistan parliament, by being mainly orderly, was an assurance of stability. As a result, and given the increasingly skillful and elaborate diplomatic co-operation of the KRG with Kurdistan's neighbors, a stable Kurdish region appears more likely, whatever the tensions and pressures of the neighborhood.

 

 

Riad al Khouri is senior consultant to the Institute for Democracy and Election Studies (IDES) at the University of Jordan, Amman

 

October 14, 2013 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLebanese oil and gas

LNG – Lebanese No Go?

by Joe Dyke October 14, 2013
written by Joe Dyke

One impact a serious delay to Lebanon’s oil and gas bids may have is to exacerbate a trend of the country falling behind its regional neighbors. In the early stages, something of a tug-of-war occurred between Israel and Lebanon, with both sides trying to attract Cyprus to establish a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant with them.

Related article: How political bickering in endangering Lebanon’s oil and gas future

While Israel’s better organization was perhaps always likely to lure Nicosia, it now appears that any hopes of a Lebanese-Cypriot deal have faded. In August Cyprus, Israel and Greece signed a deal to cooperate on energy policy, just two months after Cyprus had agreed a memorandum of understanding to establish a LNG plant with two Israeli firms and US-based Noble Energy, which works extensively in Israel.

It is unlikely that Lebanon will have enough hydrocarbons to make establishing its own LNG plant worthwhile. The average set-up costs are over $4 billion, according to Walid Khadduri, energy consultant at The Middle East Economic Survey, and with the relatively small size of the Eastern Mediterranean gas-fields it may well make sense economically for Lebanon, Cyprus and Israel to share an LNG plant. This, however, is politically impossible due to the ongoing war between Lebanon and Israel. As such, Cyprus’ decision to go with Israel limits Lebanon’s options.

Lebanon’s Energy Minister Gebran Bassil was bullish when quizzed about the failure to convince Cyprus to work with them. “We don’t need that LNG plant, I am telling you we can afford a better investment plan for the companies where we don’t need that LNG,” he said. “We will have other connections. No matter what Israel and Greece and Cyprus will do, we will be in a better position.”

Experts tend to agree that the loss of an LNG plant would not be catastrophic, but it would reduce the routes the country can use for exports. “It limits your options because LNG enables you to ship your gas to whoever you want, whereas if it is only by pipeline you are limited,” Khadduri said. “If you can put your gas in a tanker and move it to wherever requires it, you have more options.”

October 14, 2013 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLebanese oil and gas

Dripping away

by Joe Dyke October 14, 2013
written by Joe Dyke

A “minor delay” is how he put it. In the weeks before the September 2 deadline for the Cabinet to meet and ensure the bidding process over the rights to extract Lebanon’s offshore oil and gas stayed on track, caretaker Minister of Energy and Water Gebran Bassil seemed increasingly incredulous that the country looked set to miss its target, using desperate measures to encourage his fellow politicians to take action. In what appeared to be a faintly disguised bid to force their hands, he even made the implausible claim that Israel could start stealing Lebanon’s resources if the bidding process was delayed. But his efforts were to no avail, and in the end he tried to put a brave face on it, stressing that the bidding would only be extended from November until December and that he would keep searching for a deal. This was followed last week by another extension.

Related article: LNG – Lebanese No Go?

Serious concerns over transparency in oil and gas process

Educating the oil and gas generation

Gebran Bassil – Q&A

 

By Lebanese standards, Bassil had done well to get so far. From October 2012 to July 2013, he made rapid progress toward extracting oil and gas, hitting every self-set target in a feat rarely accomplished in the country. But the fall of the government in March left unsigned two decrees crucial to continuing the country’s path from energy importer to potential exporter.

After numerous debates, and a decision by the Shura Council — Lebanon’s highest legal body — in the end it was concluded that all that was needed for the bids to go ahead on schedule was for the caretaker cabinet to convene for “two minutes”, as Bassil put it to Executive, and sign the decrees. This was the first delay in the process to tap Lebanon’s offshore oil and gas since major international oil companies (IOCs) became involved.

No consensus

The reasons for the failure to meet are disputed, but most agree that colliding political interests were the root cause. Ever since the discovery of offshore oil and gas the energy ministry has become something of a prized possession. Control of the ministry has been the subject of a fierce battle, with Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt keen to get his affiliate Bahij Abou Hamze into the role and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, who happens to be Bassil’s father-in-law, resisting any changes.

More importantly, Bassil has become increasingly isolated from his fellow politicians. A senior source with knowledge of the negotiations told Executive that a deal was agreed with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati to sign the decrees on September 18 but Bassil demanded an earlier date, leading Mikati to walk away from the talks altogether.

There are also concerns about the way in which he is running the bidding process, with critics alleging that he is trying to monopolize control of what should be a national process. “Everyone is agreed that we can go ahead when there is a new minister,” the source said. Bassil himself has, at least publicly, tried to avoid playing the blame game, knowing he will need the agreement of all sides in order to move forward. “We are not here to accuse,” he told Executive when asked who was responsible for the delay. But it appears clear that politicians of all colors are jostling for influence in the oil and gas process.

Counting the cost

This perhaps unsurprising intrusion of politics into the oil and gas process is highly disruptive, says Sami Atallah, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. “The delay that is being talked about is catastrophic,” he said. “We haven’t seen that the government has shown willingness to meet and sign the decrees. Why is that? Either simply they don’t want to, or they think it is for the next government to do, or there is something deeper where some think that if they postpone it they will have more of an opportunity to interfere in the process,” he said.

While the minister is hopeful the political impasse will be solved within the coming weeks, as Executive went to print there were as yet few indications that a breakthrough was forthcoming. The effect the delay will have depends on whether, as Bassil is hoping, a deal is reached by the end of the year, or the process stretches ahead indefinitely.
The most immediate concern is that major oil companies that are bidding for Lebanon’s resources may lose interest. In total, 46 companies were pre-qualified to bid, 12 of these as operators — the lead companies in the three-company consortiums. Among these were many of the world’s largest IOCs, including Shell, Total and Exxon Mobil.

Map of Lebanon’s oil and gas blocks – click to enlarge

 

 

Already there are signs that a number of them are looking at the political impasse and deciding against continuing their bids. An unnamed oil executive told a local paper in July that already there were a “a few companies that withdrew [from the round], others who are weighing options and others that lost a bit of interest,” due to the political crisis.

From the companies’ perspective, they have already suffered significant losses due to delay. The government had promised to give them the full details of the 10 proposed blocks and which of them were going to be open for bidding on July 1. As such the companies arranged their top seismic experts, some of whom are among their highest earners, to focus on the file for a few months. When the day came and the information was not forthcoming they were left with numerous expensive staff twiddling their thumbs, whom they eventually had to assign to other projects. Getting them back if and when the government does release full data is far from easy, as many have since been allocated on medium-term contracts to other countries.

This, according to Bassam Fattouh, director of the Oil and the Middle East Program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, is indicative of a wider problem of IOCs losing faith. “It is all really about confidence and trust. The problem is, if you are going to start delaying and not being able to fulfill what you promised, some of the companies may lose interest,” he said.

The need to hold on to these companies’ interest is potentially made more acute by the current global situation, as international oil companies are faced with more options for extracting natural gas. In the past decade, outside of the eastern Mediterranean, Australia, South Africa and Azerbaijan are among the countries that have announced major plans to extract large amounts of new gas, making it somewhat of a buyers’ market. “It is not like this is the only opportunity with gas, they are finding it almost everywhere,” Fattouh said.

Wading through

Bassil appears characteristically unperturbed. “They [the companies] will not lose interest because what will matter at the end of the day to these companies is if the resource exists — and it exists,” he boldly told Executive. This is not strictly true — though you would not know it from the government-sponsored billboards that pitch oil as Lebanon’s panacea, the coffer for its ailing transport sector and armed forces. There is as yet no absolute proof that Lebanon has any oil and gas, let alone enough to make it commercially viable for extraction. While the seismic surveys have been positive, until the companies drill down into the seabed it is impossible to know exactly how much Lebanon has.

But Bassil is perhaps right to point out that Lebanon does still have a relatively strong hand — the sheer number of firms that applied for the bidding process mean that a few dropouts would not be disastrous. Carole Nakhle, an energy economist specializing in hydrocarbons, agrees that the delay is not ideal but thinks that the companies are not yet likely to be heading for the door en masse. “It is common in developing countries to postpone licensing rounds. Lebanon is not unique … I feel that international companies do expect delays to take place in developing countries,” she said.

A government-sponsored advert reads “Our country now has oil to develop a transportation network”

 

So while perhaps oil companies may not yet be ready to abandon Lebanon’s hydrocarbons, the delay may increase their leverage in deal making. The fear is that when, eventually, a deal is reached to continue and the six-member Petroleum Administration begins its main task of leading the negotiations with the IOCs, the companies will try and push the cost of any further setbacks onto the government.

“It puts the Petroleum Administration or the government in a weaker position to negotiate with these companies,” Fattouh said. “[The companies] will look for better terms, in terms of revenue distribution. And also try to put force majeure clauses — if [a political crisis] happens and the companies are not able to deliver, [they are not responsible].”

A looming curse?

Perhaps the biggest danger of Lebanon’s politics seeping into its oil and gas bids is not in delay, but actually in extraction. In their seminal 1995 paper, “Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth”, Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner showed that countries with natural resources often had lower growth rates than similar countries without hydrocarbons. This is because the effect of resources is to reduce competitiveness in the other sectors of the economy — the so-called resource curse.

This was backed up by a 2012 joint study between the World Bank and the Brookings Institute which concluded that resource-rich countries that lack proper governance tend to see an increase in corruption over time, as compared to non-resource producers. In effect, the evidence suggests that if politicians don’t work together oil and gas could make Lebanon worse, not better.

Martin Skancke, a global consultant who advises states with newfound hydrocarbons, believes that the most important way a country can avoid wasting their wealth is by building a broad consensus. “There should be an effort to reach out across different political bodies, parties, interest groups and religious groups to make sure you build something on solid ground and stability,” he said. Clearly this has yet to succeed in Lebanon, and without it the chances of the country using its resources in a logical fashion are slim.

When it comes to managing the sovereign wealth fund that revenues will initially be directed to under the 2010 Offshore Petroleum Law, best practice would be for all political parties to agree on how that money will be used in the long term.

Skancke said it was important that there was little political infighting in the process and that the fund is seen to be neutral. “If you have a sovereign wealth fund you need to be a long-term investor and a long-term investor cannot change every time there is a change of government,” Skancke said. He added that if there is political infighting “the risk of macroeconomic instability is much larger because investors will not know how spending will evolve over time if there is no broad consensus and no broad guidelines for it. The risk of mismanagement of the fund is large.”

Lebanon’s delay may only be minor right now, but it is perhaps emblematic of a worrying trend of political interests creeping into a sector that moved ahead impressively in the past year. If offshore resources, as with many of Lebanon’s policy issues, become a battleground for political interests, ultimately the chances of it helping the country will be reduced.

October 14, 2013 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyIndustry 2013

Industry’s surprising success

by Joe Dyke October 11, 2013
written by Joe Dyke

If Lebanese industrialists are seeking a quantum of solace, it is that those around them are in a worse position. From tourism, to retail, to construction, many of Lebanon’s businessmen are more in the mire than industrialists. As Jacques Sarraf, chairman of Malia Group and former head of the Association of Lebanese Industrialists, put it to Executive, “if we look at different sectors within the environment of Lebanon, industry is still on the safe side.”

If 2012 was a year of shock, 2013 has partly been one of readjustment, with confidence slightly up. The industrial sector’s balance of opinions, a measure of the difference between the proportion of managers who consider that there was an improvement in the industry and those who feel it has declined, was at -8 in the first quarter of the year, static from the previous quarter but up from -24 during the same quarter of 2012. The time lag on the data makes it difficult to assess the impact of the recent decline in the security situation, but Sarraf told Executive that security concerns had not affected Malia Group’s strategy at all.

Industrial exports totaled $1.74 billion in the first six months of 2013, a 13.3 percent increase from the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Industry. Mineral products accounted for $317.7m, or 18.2 percent, followed by base metals with 17.6 percent and machinery and mechanical appliances with 15.2 percent. Imports reached $166m, up 14.4 percent from the same period of 2012. 

The syria effect

One positive for industrialists was a major stimulus package, introduced by Banque du Liban (BDL), Lebanon’s central bank in January. While the majority was aimed at the housing sector, 14.1 percent of the $1.46 billion was directed to the productive sectors. Of the $101.3 million of subsidized loans that went into the economy in the first half of the year, $53.8 million, or 53.1 percent of the total, went to industry. In early September BDL Governor Riad Salameh announced plans for a supplementary round of stimulus, something that has got industrialists purring. Sarraf told Executive that in the absence of a government, Salameh was doing the job of the industry minister, minister of economy and the minister of finance.

The crisis in Syria has continued to loom large over the sector, with prices of export overland continuing to rise. The Association of Insurance Companies in Lebanon has estimated insurance policies on exports through Syria have increased 500 percent from the pre-war period, and Sarraf and other industrialists Executive spoke to said that it was increasingly not cost effective to take goods through Syria overland. This has led to an increase of trade at the Port of Beirut, with revenues growing by 26.1 percent year-on-year to $126.7 million in the first seven months of 2013. This route, however, is still considerably more expensive than travelling overland was before the Syria crisis. Gay Mandour, marketing manager at food firm Al-Wadi Al-Akhdar, told Executive that importing products from Jordan via the port of Aqaba was around 30 percent more expensive than their travel arrangements before the 2011 uprising.

This negative impact of the Syria crisis was partly offset by Lebanese industrialists seeking to fill gaps in the Syrian market — with industry in the country estimated to have been over 80 percent destroyed. While the regulatory framework for doing so remains challenging, Lebanese exports to Syria rose by 0.15 percent of GDP in 2012 to reach 0.7 percent, their highest level since 2008. Caretaker Industry Minister Vrej Sabounjian highlighted it as a source of growth in the coming months: “There is definitely an upward trend and we expect to continue seeing increases in industrial exports,” he said.

In the midst of all this, the traditionally malleable Lebanese industrialists have developed coping strategies to stay afloat. Many have streamlined, adjusting their organization structures to maintain their logistics bases in the country but moving their production and manufacturing bases to countries with more easy trade routes. Others have cut back. A study by American Express Middle East on corporate spending trends found that 55 percent of firms had become more financially conservative in recent years. Seventy-one percent said they had reduced costs.

For an industry used to surviving in an unstable region and with little support from the government, adjustment is par for the course.

October 11, 2013 0 comments
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The Buzz

Business briefing: 11 Oct 2013

by Executive Staff October 11, 2013
written by Executive Staff

Economics and Policy

Lebanon may not get sufficient funds from the donor states to cope with the huge influx of Syrian refugees to the country, caretaker Finance Minister Mohammad Safadi has said.

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OPEC further lowered the forecast demand for its crude in the fourth quarter and 2014, and said its production remained higher than next year’s global requirement despite a plunge in Iraqi and Libyan output.

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International trade unionists inspecting the plight of migrant labor in Qatar Thursday urged immediate “bolder” steps by the 2022 football World Cup host country to protect workers, mostly Asians.

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Companies and Business

The Oman Oil Company agreed to buy German chemicals maker Oxea from buyout firm Advent International to expand into downstream activities in a dea worth about $2.4 billion.

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Siemens's share of a major contract to supply trains for a new subway system in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh is worth $2 billion, the German group has said.

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Initial public offering value levels in the MENA region fell by 45.3 per cent in Q3 2012 as compared to the same period last year, according to Ernst & Young’s (EY) MENA Q3 2013 IPO update.

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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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